Understanding the effectiveness of marine protected areas using genetic connectivity patterns and Lagrangian simulations

β-diversity reveals ecological connectivity patterns underlying marine community recovery: Implications for conservation

As β-diversity can be seen as a proxy of ecological connections among species assemblages, modeling the decay of similarity in species composition at increasing distance may help elucidate spatial patterns of connectivity and local- to large-scale processes driving community assembly within a marine region. This, in turn, may provide invaluable information for setting ecologically coherent networks of marine protected areas (MPAs) in which protected communities are potentially interrelated and can mutually sustain against environmental perturbations. However, field studies investigating changes in β-diversity patterns at a range of spatial scales and in relation to disturbance are scant, limiting our understanding of how spatial ecological connections among marine communities may affect their recovery dynamics. We carried out a manipulative experiment simulating a strong physical disturbance on subtidal rocky reefs at several locations spanning >1000 km of coast in the Adriatic Sea (Mediterranean Sea) and compared β-diversity patterns and decay of similarity with distance and time by current transport between undisturbed and experimentally disturbed macrobenthic assemblages to shed light on connectivity processes and scales involved in recovery. In contrast to the expectation that very local-scale processes, such as vegetative regrowth and larval supply from neighboring undisturbed assemblages, might be the major determinants of recovery in disturbed patches, we found that connectivity mediated by currents at larger spatial scales strongly contributed to shape community reassembly after disturbance. Across our study sites in the Adriatic Sea, β-diversity patterns suggested that additional protected sites that matched hotspots of propagule exchange could increase the complementarity and strengthen the ecological connectivity throughout the MPA network. More generally, conditional to habitat distribution and selection of sites of high conservation priority (e.g., biodiversity hotspots), setting network internode distance within 100-150 km, along with sizing no-take zones to cover at least 5 km of coast, would help enhance the potential connectivity of Mediterranean subtidal rocky reef assemblages from local to large scale. These results can help improve conservation planning to achieve the goals of promoting ecological connectivity within MPA networks and enhancing their effectiveness in protecting marine communities against rapidly increasing natural and anthropogenic disturbances.

Weak biodiversity connectivity in the European network of no-take marine protected areas

The need for international cooperation in marine resource management and conservation has been reflected in the increasing number of agreements aiming for effective and well-connected networks of Marine Protected Areas (MPAs). However, the extent to which individual MPAs are connected remains mostly unknown. Here, we use a biophysical model tuned with empirical data on species dispersal ecology to predict connectivity of a vast spectrum of biodiversity in the European network of marine reserves (i.e., no-take MPAs). Our results highlight the correlation between empirical propagule duration data and connectivity potential and show weak network connectivity and strong isolation for major ecological groups, resulting from the lack of direct connectivity corridors between reserves over vast regions. The particularly high isolation predicted for ecosystem structuring species (e.g., corals, sponges, macroalgae and seagrass) might potentially undermine biodiversity conservation efforts if local retention is insufficient and unmanaged populations are at risk. Isolation might also be problematic for populations' persistence in the light of climate change and expected species range shifts. Our findings provide novel insights for management directives, highlighting the location of regions requiring additional marine reserves to function as stepping-stone connectivity corridors.

Current distribution and potential expansion of the harmful benthic dinoflagellate Ostreopsis cf. siamensis towards the warming waters of the Bay of Biscay, North-East Atlantic

In a future scenario of increasing temperatures in North-Atlantic waters, the risk associated with the expansion of the harmful, benthic dinoflagellate Ostreopsis cf. siamensis has to be evaluated and monitored. Microscopy observations and spatio-temporal surveys of environmental DNA (eDNA) were associated with Lagrangian particle dispersal simulations to: (i) establish the current colonization of the species in the Bay of Biscay, (ii) assess the spatial connectivity among sampling zones that explain this distribution, and (iii) identify the sentinel zones to monitor future expansion. Throughout a sampling campaign carried out in August to September 2018, microscope analysis showed that the species develops in the south-east of the bay where optimal temperatures foster blooms. Quantitative PCR analyses revealed its presence across almost the whole bay to the western English Channel. An eDNA time-series collected on plastic samplers showed that the species occurs in the bay from April to September. Due to the water circulation, colonization of the whole bay from the southern blooming zones is explained by inter-site connectivity. Key areas in the middle of the bay permit continuous dispersal connectivity towards the north. These key areas are proposed as sentinel zones to monitor O. cf. siamensis invasions towards the presumably warming water of the North-East Atlantic.

Channel network structure determines genetic connectivity of landward-seaward Avicennia marina populations in a tropical bay

Mangrove ecosystems along the East African coast are often characterized by a disjunct zonation pattern of seaward and landward Avicennia marina trees. This disjunct zonation may be maintained through different positions in the tidal frame, yielding different dispersal settings. The spatial configuration of the landscape and coastal processes such as tides and waves is expected to largely influence the extent of propagule transport and subsequent regeneration. We hypothesized that landward sites would keep a stronger genetic structure over short distances in comparison with enhanced gene flow among regularly flooded seaward fringes. We tested this hypothesis from densely vegetated A. marina transects of a well-documented mangrove system (Gazi Bay, Kenya) and estimated local gene flow and kinship-based fine-scale genetic structure. Ten polymorphic microsatellite markers in 457 A. marina trees revealed no overall significant difference in levels of allele or gene diversities between sites that differ in hydrological proximity. Genetic structure and connectivity of A. marina populations however indicated an overall effect of geographic distance and revealed a pronounced distinction between channels and topographic setting. Migration models allowed to infer gene flow directionality among channels, and indicated a bidirectional steppingstone between seaward and nearest located landward stands. Admixed gene pools without any fine-scale structure were found within the wider and more exposed Kidogoweni channel, suggesting open systems. Elevated kinship values and structure over 5 to 20 m distance were only detected in two distant landward and seaward transects near the mouth of the Mkurumuji River, indicating local retention and establishment. Overall, our findings show that patterns of A. marina connectivity are explained by hydrological proximity, channel network structure, and hydrokinetic energy, rather than just their positioning as disjunct landward or seaward zones.

Spatiotemporal variations in density and biomass of rocky reef fish in a biogeographic climatic transition zone: trends over 9 years, inside and outside the only nearshore no-take marine-protected area on the southern Brazilian coast

Biogeographical transition zones are important areas to investigate evolutionary ecological questions, but long-term population monitoring is needed to better understand ecological processes that govern population variations in such edge environments. The southernmost Brazilian rocky reefs are the southern limit of distribution for 96% of the tropical ichthyofauna of the western Atlantic. The Arvoredo Marine Biological Reserve is the only nearshore no-take marine-protected area (MPA) located in this transition zone. The main aim was to investigate how the populations of rocky reef fish species vary in density and biomass in space and over time, inside and outside the Arvoredo MPA. This study presents results based on a 9 year (2008-2017) underwater visual census monitoring study to evaluate the density and biomass of key fish species. Variations in density and biomass were detected for most species. Factors and mechanisms that may have influenced spatial variation are habitat structural complexity and protection from fisheries. Temporal variations, otherwise, may have been influenced by species proximity to their distributional limit, in synergy with density-dependent mechanisms and stochastic winter temperature oscillations. The MPAs harbour higher density and biomass for most species. Nonetheless, a prominent temporal decline in the recruitment of Epinephelus marginatus calls into question the continuous effectiveness of the MPA.

Protection reveals density-dependent dynamics in fish populations: A case study in the central Mediterranean

Casting light on how the interaction between protection and density dependence affects fish population dynamics is critical for understanding the effectiveness of marine protected areas (MPAs). We developed a framework based on nonparametric statistics, model selection and multi-model inference to contrast alternative hypotheses about the effect of density dependence on demographic dynamics under protected and unprotected conditions. We trialed it using a 12-year long time series of white seabream (Diplodus sargus sargus) population density within the no-take zone of Torre Guaceto MPA (Italy) and at two nearby unprotected locations. Then, we showed how the demographic models obtained can be used to assess the consequences of protection on population viability. Population dynamics were significantly influenced by fish density within the MPA and at one of the unprotected locations, where demography is possibly driven by directional recruitment subsidy from the MPA. The comparison of population growth rates within and outside the MPA suggests that in unprotected conditions the fishery may remove a fraction between 40 and 70% of the population each year. The population viability analysis pointed out that, while the probability that the population becomes depleted (i.e. undergoes a local, temporary quasi-extinction) is high in unprotected locations, it is negligible within the no-take zone of the MPA.

Genetic Connectivity of the Sky Emperor, Lethrinus mahsena Populations Across a Gradient of Exploitation Rates in Coastal Kenya

Marine-protected areas (MPAs) have the potential to enhance fisheries through transport of larvae or by a net emigration of adult and juvenile fish to adjacent fished areas. A network of appropriately located MPAs will have the potential to reseed fished areas and other MPAs. Connectivity studies are therefore important to assess the effectiveness of a network of MPAs and to determine the spatial scale necessary for spillover effects. The principal aim of this study was to determine the potential for Kenyan MPAs to reseed adjacent fishing zones by evaluating the levels of genetic differentiation of populations of Lethrinus mahsena, a commercially important fish, along a continuum of protected and nonprotected sites. Fish samples were collected from MPAs (Mombasa and Kisite Mpunguti Marine Parks) and the fished reserves adjacent to the two MPAs. Total length and weight of the fish from the sites and fin clips from one of the pectoral fins were collected and preserved in 90% ethanol. Genomic profiles for each sample were obtained through genotyping by sequencing using diversity array technology markers. Results from population structure, diversity, and admixture analyses indicated very low genetic differentiation (F_ST = 0.00184, P > 0.05) and low population substructure between samples obtained from the study locations implying a free exchange of fish across protected and nonprotected sites. There was a high gene flow and multidirectional migration rate among the sampling sites. Inbreeding was moderately high (F_IS = 0.15, P < 0.05) in the marine parks, indicating high relatedness and probably limited mating options for the species due to small population size or spatial restriction. The lack of genetic differentiation between protected areas and open fishing grounds is indicative of genetic connectivity for the sky emperor. This reinforces the significance of maintaining protected areas to serve as breeding and spawning grounds of fish without adversely affecting the livelihoods of communities that depend on the various fisheries linked to MPAs.

A multidisciplinary analytical framework to delineate spawning areas and quantify larval dispersal in coastal fish

Assessing larval dispersal is essential to understand the structure and dynamics of marine populations. However, knowledge about early-life dispersal is sparse, and so is our understanding of the spawning process, perhaps the most obscure component of biphasic life cycles. Indeed, poorly known species-specific spawning modality and species-specific early-life traits, as well as the high spatio-temporal variability of the oceanic circulation experienced during larval drift, hamper our ability to appraise the realized connectivity of coastal fishes. Here, we propose an analytical framework which combines Lagrangian modelling, network theory, otolith analyses and biogeographical information to pinpoint and characterize larval sources which are then grouped into discrete spawning areas. Such well-delineated larval sources allow improving the quantitative evaluations of both dispersal scales and connectivity patterns. To illustrate its added value, our approach is applied to two case-studies focusing on Diplodus sargus and Diplodus vulgaris in the Adriatic sea. We evidence robust correlations between otolith geochemistry and modelled spawning areas to assess their relative importance for the larval replenishment of the Apulian coast. Our results show that, contrary to D. sargus, D. vulgaris larvae originate from both eastern and western Adriatic shorelines. Our findings also suggest that dispersal distances and dispersal surfaces scale differently with the pelagic larval duration. Furthermore, 30.8% of D. sargus larvae and 23.6% of D. vulgaris larvae of the Apulian populations originate from Marine protected area (MPA), exemplifying larval export from MPAs to surrounding unprotected areas. This flexible multidisciplinary framework, which can be adjusted to any coastal fish and oceanic system, exploits the explanatory power of a dispersal model, fine-tuned and backed-up by observations, to provide more reliable scientific basis for the management and conservation of marine ecosystems.

Connectivity Among Populations of the Top Shell Gibbula divaricata in the Adriatic Sea

Genetic connectivity studies are essential to understand species diversity and genetic structure and to assess the role of potential factors affecting connectivity, thus enabling sound management and conservation strategies. Here, we analyzed the patterns of genetic variability in the marine snail Gibbula divaricata from five coastal locations in the central-south Adriatic Sea (central Mediterranean) and one in the adjacent northern Ionian Sea, using 21 described polymorphic microsatellite loci. Observed and expected heterozygosity varied from 0.582 to 0.635 and 0.684 to 0.780, respectively. AMOVA analyses showed that 97% of genetic variation was observed within populations. Nevertheless, significant, although small, genetic differentiation was found among nearly all of the pairwise F ST comparisons. Over a general pattern of panmixia, three groups of populations were identified: eastern Adriatic populations, western Adriatic populations, and a third group represented by the single northern Ionian Sea population. Nonetheless, migration and gene flow were significant between these groups. Gibbula divaricata is thought to have a limited dispersal capacity related to its lecithotrophic trochophore larval stage. Our results indicated high levels of self-recruitment and gene flow that is mainly driven through coastline dispersion, with populations separated by the lack of suitable habitats or deep waters. This stepping-stone mode of dispersion together with the high levels of self-recruitment could lead to higher levels of population structuring and differentiation along the Adriatic Sea. Large effective population sizes and episodic events of long-distance dispersal might be responsible for the weak differentiation observed in the analyzed populations. In summary, the circulation system operating in this region creates natural barriers for dispersion that, together with life-history traits and habitat requirements, certainly affect connectivity in G. divaricata. However, this scenario of potential differentiation seems to be overridden by sporadic events of long-distance dispersal across barriers and large effective population sizes.

Settlement and post-settlement survival rates of the white seabream (Diplodus sargus) in the western Mediterranean Sea

Survival during the settlement window is a limiting variable for recruitment. The survival is believed to be strongly determined by biological interactions and sea conditions, however it has been poorly investigated. We examined the settlement patterns related to relevant biotic and abiotic factors (i.e. Density-dependence, wind stress, wave height and coastal current velocity) potentially determining post-settler survival rates of a coastal necto-benthic fish of wide distribution in the Mediterranean and eastern Atlantic, the white seabream (Diplodus sargus). An observational study of the demography of juveniles of this species was carried out at six coves in Menorca Island (Balearic Islands, western Mediterranean). Three of the coves were located in the northern and wind exposed coast, at the Northeast (NE) side; while the other three were found along the southern and sheltered coast, at the Southwest (SW) side of the island. The settlement period extended from early May to late June and maximum juvenile densities at the sampling sites varied between 5 and 11 ind. m^-1 with maximum values observed in late May simultaneously occurring in the two coasts. Our analysis of juvenile survival, based on the interpretation of the observed patters using an individual based model (IBM), revealed two stages in the size-mortality relationships. An initial density-dependent stage was observed for juveniles up to 20 mm TL, followed by a density independent stage when other factors dominated the survival at sizes > 20 mm TL. No significant environmental effects were observed for the small size class (<20mm TL). Different significant environmental effects affecting NE and SW coves were observed for the medium (20-30mm TL) and large (>30mm TL) size class. In the NE, the wind stress consistently affected the density of fish of 20–30 mm and >30 mm TL with a dome-shape effect with higher densities at intermediate values of wind stress and negative effect at the extremes. The best models applied in the SW coves showed a significant non-linear negative effect on fish density that was also consistent for both groups 20–30 mm and >30 mm TL. Higher densities were observed at low values of wave height in the two groups. Because of these variations, the number of juveniles present at the end of the period was unrelated to their initial density and average survival varied among locations. In consequence, recruitment was (1) primarily limited by denso-dependient procedures at settlement stage, and (2) by sea conditions at post-settlement, where extreme wave conditions depleted juveniles. Accordingly, regional hydrodynamic conditions during the settlement season produced significant impacts on the juvenile densities depending on their size and with contrasted effects in respectto cove orientation. The similar strength in larval supply between coves, in addition to the similar mean phenology for settlers in the north and south of the Island, suggests that all fish may come from the same parental reproductive pool. These factors should be taken into account when assessing relationships between settlers, recruits and adults of white seabream.

Assessing larval connectivity for marine spatial planning in the Adriatic

There are plans to start building offshore marine renewable energy devices throughout the Mediterranean and the Adriatic has been identified as a key location for wind farm developments. The development of offshore wind farms in the area would provide hard substrata for the settlement of sessile benthos. Since the seafloor of the Adriatic is predominantly sedimentary this may alter the larval connectivity of benthic populations in the region. Here, we simulated the release of larvae from benthic populations along the coasts of the Adriatic Sea using coupled bio-physical models and investigated the effect of pelagic larval duration on dispersal. Our model simulations show that currents typically carry particles from east to west across the Adriatic, whereas particles released along western coasts tend to remain there with the Puglia coast of Italy acting as a sink for larvae from benthic populations. We identify areas of high connectivity, as well as areas that are much more isolated, and discuss how these results can be used to inform marine spatial planning and the licensing of offshore marine renewable energy developments.

Population genomics meet Lagrangian simulations: Oceanographic patterns and long larval duration ensure connectivity among Paracentrotus lividus populations in the Adriatic and Ionian seas

Connectivity between populations influences both their dynamics and the genetic structuring of species. In this study, we explored connectivity patterns of a marine species with long-distance dispersal, the edible common sea urchin Paracentrotus lividus, focusing mainly on the Adriatic-Ionian basins (Central Mediterranean). We applied a multidisciplinary approach integrating population genomics, based on 1,122 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) obtained from 2b-RAD in 275 samples, with Lagrangian simulations performed with a biophysical model of larval dispersal. We detected genetic homogeneity among eight population samples collected in the focal Adriatic-Ionian area, whereas weak but significant differentiation was found with respect to two samples from the Western Mediterranean (France and Tunisia). This result was not affected by the few putative outlier loci identified in our dataset. Lagrangian simulations found a significant potential for larval exchange among the eight Adriatic-Ionian locations, supporting the hypothesis of connectivity of P. lividus populations in this area. A peculiar pattern emerged from the comparison of our results with those obtained from published P. lividus cytochrome b (cytb) sequences, the latter revealing genetic differentiation in the same geographic area despite a smaller sample size and a lower power to detect differences. The comparison with studies conducted using nuclear markers on other species with similar pelagic larval durations in the same Adriatic-Ionian locations indicates species-specific differences in genetic connectivity patterns and warns against generalizing single-species results to the entire community of rocky shore habitats.

Patterns of Fish Connectivity between a Marine Protected Area and Surrounding Fished Areas

Patterns of connectivity and self-recruitment are recognized as key factors shaping the dynamics of marine populations. Connectivity is also essential for maintaining and restoring natural ecological processes with genetic diversity contributing to the adaptation and persistence of any species in the face of global disturbances. Estimates of connectivity are crucial to inform the design of both marine protected areas (MPAs) and MPA networks. Among several approaches, genetic structure is frequently used as a proxy for patterns of connectivity. Using 8 microsatellite loci, we investigated genetic structure of the two-banded sea bream Diplodus vulgaris, a coastal fish that is both commercially and ecologically important. Adults were sampled in 7 locations (stretches of coastline approximately 8 km long) and juveniles in 14 sites (~100 to 200 m of coastline) along 200 km of the Apulian Adriatic coast (SW Adriatic Sea), within and outside an MPA (Torre Guaceto MPA, Italy). Our study found similar genetic diversity indices for both the MPA and the surrounding fished areas. An overall lack of genetic structure among samples suggests high gene flow (i.e. connectivity) across a scale of at least 200 km. However, some local genetic divergences found in two locations demonstrate some heterogeneity in processes renewing the population along the Apulian Adriatic coast. Furthermore, two sites appeared genetically divergent, reinforcing our observations within the genetic makeup of adults and confirming heterogeneity in early stage genetics that can come from either different supply populations or from chaotic genetic patchiness occurring under temporal variation in recruitment and in the reproductive success. While the specific role of the MPA is not entirely known in this case, these results confirm the presence of regional processes and the key role of connectivity in maintaining the local population supply.

Contemporary genetic structure and postglacial demographic history of the black scorpionfish, Scorpaena porcus, in the Mediterranean and the Black Seas

Understanding the distribution of genetic diversity in the light of past demographic events linked with climatic shifts will help to forecast evolutionary trajectories of ecosystems within the current context of climate change. In this study, mitochondrial sequences and microsatellite loci were analysed using traditional population genetic approaches together with Bayesian dating and the more recent approximate Bayesian computation scenario testing. The genetic structure and demographic history of a commercial fish, the black scorpionfish, Scorpaena porcus, was investigated throughout the Mediterranean and Black Seas. The results suggest that the species recently underwent population expansions, in both seas, likely concomitant with the warming period following the Last Glacial Maximum, 20 000 years ago. A weak contemporaneous genetic differentiation was identified between the Black Sea and the Mediterranean Sea. However, the genetic diversity was similar for populations of the two seas, suggesting a high number of colonizers entered the Black Sea during the interglacial period and/or the presence of a refugial population in the Black Sea during the glacial period. Finally, within seas, an east/west genetic differentiation in the Adriatic seems to prevail, whereas the Black Sea does not show any structured spatial genetic pattern of its population. Overall, these results suggest that the Black Sea is not that isolated from the Mediterranean, and both seas revealed similar evolutionary patterns related to climate change and changes in sea level.

Looking for hotspots of marine metacommunity connectivity: a methodological framework

Seascape connectivity critically affects the spatiotemporal dynamics of marine metacommunities. Understanding how connectivity patterns emerge from physically and biologically-mediated interactions is therefore crucial to conserve marine ecosystem functions and biodiversity. Here, we develop a set of biophysical models to explore connectivity in assemblages of species belonging to a typical Mediterranean community (Posidonia oceanica meadows) and characterized by different dispersing traits. We propose a novel methodological framework to synthesize species-specific results into a set of community connectivity metrics and show that spatiotemporal variation in magnitude and direction of the connections, as well as interspecific differences in dispersing traits, are key factors structuring community connectivity. We eventually demonstrate how these metrics can be used to characterize the functional role of each marine area in determining patterns of community connectivity at the basin level and to support marine conservation planning.

Matching oceanography and genetics at the basin scale. Seascape connectivity of the Mediterranean shore crab in the Adriatic Sea

Investigating the interactions between the physical environment and early life history is crucial to understand the mechanisms that shape the genetic structure of marine populations. Here, we assessed the genetic differentiation in a species with larval dispersal, the Mediterranean shore crab (Carcinus aestuarii) in the Adriatic Sea (central Mediterranean), and we investigated the role of oceanic circulation in shaping population structure. To this end, we screened 11 polymorphic microsatellite loci from 431 individuals collected at eight different sites. We found a weak, yet significant, genetic structure into three major clusters: a northern Adriatic group, a central Adriatic group and one group including samples from southern Adriatic and Ionian seas. Genetic analyses were compared, under a seascape genetics approach, with estimates of potential larval connectivity obtained with a coupled physical-biological model that integrates a water circulation model and a description of biological traits affecting dispersal. The cross-validation of the results of the two approaches supported the view that genetic differentiation reflects an oceanographic subdivision of the Adriatic Sea into three subbasins, with circulation patterns allowing the exchange of larvae through permanent connections linking north Adriatic sites and ephemeral connections like those linking the central Adriatic with northern and southern locations.

Kinship analyses identify fish dispersal events on a temperate coastline

Connectivity is crucial for the persistence and resilience of marine species, the establishment of networks of marine protected areas and the delineation of fishery management units. In the marine environment, understanding connectivity is still a major challenge, due to the technical difficulties of tracking larvae. Recently, parentage analysis has provided a means to address this question effectively. To be effective, this method requires limited adult movement and extensive sampling of parents, which is often not possible for marine species. An alternative approach that is less sensitive to constraints in parental movement and sampling could be the reconstruction of sibships. Here, we directly measure connectivity and larval dispersal in a temperate marine ecosystem through both analytical approaches. We use data from 178 single nucleotide polymorphism markers to perform parentage and sibship reconstruction of the black-faced blenny (Tripterygion delaisi) from an open coastline in the Mediterranean Sea. Parentage analysis revealed a decrease in dispersal success in the focal area over 1 km distance and approximately 6.5% of the juveniles were identified as self-recruits. Sibship reconstruction analysis found that, in general, full siblings did not recruit together to the same location, and that the largest distance between recruitment locations was much higher (11.5 km) than found for parent-offspring pairs (1.2 km). Direct measurements of dispersal are essential to understanding connectivity patterns in different marine habitats, and show the degree of self-replenishment and sustainability of populations of marine organisms. We demonstrate that sibship reconstruction allows direct measurements of dispersal and family structure in marine species while being more easily applied in those species for which the collection of the parental population is difficult or unfeasible.