Modelling and mapping regional-scale patterns of fishing impact and fish stocks to support coral-reef management in Micronesia

Protection efforts have resulted in ~10% of existing fish biomass on coral reefs

The amount of ocean protected from fishing and other human impacts has often been used as a metric of conservation progress. However, protection efforts have highly variable outcomes that depend on local conditions, which makes it difficult to quantify what coral reef protection efforts to date have actually achieved at a global scale. Here, we develop a predictive model of how local conditions influence conservation outcomes on ~2,600 coral reef sites across 44 ecoregions, which we used to quantify how much more fish biomass there is on coral reefs compared to a modeled scenario with no protection. Under the assumptions of our model, our study reveals that without existing protection efforts there would be ~10% less fish biomass on coral reefs. Thus, we estimate that coral reef protection efforts have led to approximately 1 in every 10 kg of existing fish biomass.

Trait groups as management entities in a complex, multispecies reef fishery

Localized stressors compound the ongoing climate-driven decline of coral reefs, requiring natural resource managers to work with rapidly shifting paradigms. Trait-based adaptive management (TBAM) is a new framework to help address changing conditions by choosing and implementing management actions specific to species groups that share key traits, vulnerabilities, and management responses. In TBAM maintenance of functioning ecosystems is balanced with provisioning for human subsistence and livelihoods. We first identified trait-based groups of food fish in a Pacific coral reef with hierarchical clustering. Positing that trait-based groups performing comparable functions respond similarly to both stressors and management actions, we ascertained biophysical and socioeconomic drivers of trait-group biomass and evaluated their vulnerabilities with generalized additive models. Clustering identified 7 trait groups from 131 species. Groups responded to different drivers and displayed divergent vulnerabilities; human activities emerged as important predictors of community structuring. Biomass of small, solitary reef-associated species increased with distance from key fishing ports, and large, solitary piscivores exhibited a decline in biomass with distance from a port. Group biomass also varied in response to different habitat types, the presence or absence of reported dynamite fishing activity, and exposure to wave energy. The differential vulnerabilities of trait groups revealed how the community structure of food fishes is driven by different aspects of resource use and habitat. This inherent variability in the responses of trait-based groups presents opportunities to apply selective TBAM strategies for complex, multispecies fisheries. This approach can be widely adjusted to suit local contexts and priorities.

Spatial covariation in nutrient enrichment and fishing of herbivores in an oceanic coral reef ecosystem

Both natural and anthropogenic stressors are increasing on coral reefs, resulting in large-scale loss of coral and potential shifts from coral- to macroalgae-dominated community states. Two factors implicated in shifts to macroalgae are nutrient enrichment and fishing of reef herbivores. Although either of these factors alone could facilitate establishment of macroalgae, reefs may be particularly vulnerable to coral-to-algae phase shifts in which strong bottom-up forcing from nutrient enrichment is accompanied by a weakening of herbivore control of macroalgae via intense fishing. We explored spatial heterogeneity and covariance in these drivers on reefs in the lagoons of Moorea, French Polynesia, where the local fishery heavily targets herbivorous fishes and there are spatially variable inputs of nutrients from agricultural fertilizers and wastewater systems. Spatial patterns of fishing and nutrient enrichment were not correlated at the two landscape scales we examined: among the 11 interconnected lagoons around the island or among major habitats (fringing reef, mid-lagoon, back reef) within a lagoon. This decoupling at the landscape scale resulted from patterns of covariation between enrichment and fishing that differed qualitatively between cross-shore and long-shore directions. At the cross-shore scale, nutrient enrichment declined but fishing increased from shore to the crest of the barrier reef. By contrast, nutrient enrichment and fishing were positively correlated in the long-shore direction, with both increasing with proximity to a pass in the barrier reef. Contrary to widespread assumptions in the scientific literature that human coastal population density correlates with impact on marine ecosystems and that fishing effort declines linearly with distance from the shore, these local stressors produced a complex spatial mosaic of reef vulnerabilities. Our findings support spatially explicit management involving the control of anthropogenic nutrients and strategic reductions in fishing pressure on herbivores by highlighting specific areas to target for management actions.

Assessing Potential Climatic and Human Pressures in Indonesian Coastal Ecosystems Using a Spatial Data-Driven Approach

Blue carbon ecosystems are key for successful global climate change mitigation; however, they are one of the most threatened ecosystems on Earth. Thus, this study mapped the climatic and human pressures on the blue carbon ecosystems in Indonesia using multi-source spatial datasets. Data on moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) ocean color standard mapped images, VIIRS (visible, infrared imaging radiometer suite) boat detection (VBD), global artificial impervious area (GAIA), MODIS surface reflectance (MOD09GA), MODIS land surface temperature (MOD11A2), and MODIS vegetation indices (MOD13A2) were combined using remote sensing and spatial analysis techniques to identify potential stresses. La Niña and El Niño phenomena caused sea surface temperature deviations to reach −0.5 to +1.2 °C. In contrast, chlorophyll-a deviations reached 22,121 to +0.5 mg m−3. Regarding fishing activities, most areas were under exploitation and relatively sustained. Concerning land activities, mangrove deforestation occurred in 560.69 km2 of the area during 2007–2016, as confirmed by a decrease of 84.9% in risk-screening environmental indicators. Overall, the potential pressures on Indonesia’s blue carbon ecosystems are varied geographically. The framework of this study can be efficiently adopted to support coastal and small islands zonation planning, conservation prioritization, and marine fisheries enhancement.

Optimizing coral reef recovery with context-specific management actions at prioritized reefs

Assisting the natural recovery of coral reefs through local management actions is needed in response to increasing ecosystem disturbances in the Anthropocene. There is growing evidence that commonly used resilience-based passive management approaches may not be sufficient to maintain coral reef key functions. We synthesize and discuss advances in coral reef recovery research, and its application to coral reef conservation and restoration practices. We then present a framework to guide the decision-making of reef managers, scientists and other stakeholders, to best support reef recovery after a disturbance. The overall aim of this management framework is to catalyse reef recovery, to minimize recovery times, and to limit the need for ongoing management interventions into the future. Our framework includes two main stages: first, a prioritization method for assessment following a large-scale disturbance, which is based on a reef's social-ecological values, and on a classification of the likelihood of recovery or succession resulting in degraded, novel, hybrid or historical states. Second, a flow chart to assist with determining management actions for highly valued reefs. Potential actions are chosen based on the ecological attributes of the disturbed reef, defined during ecological assessments. Depending on the context, management actions may include (1) substrata rehabilitation actions to facilitate natural coral recruitment, (2) repopulating actions using active restoration techniques, (3) resilience-based management actions and (4) monitoring coral recruitment and growth to assess the effectiveness of management interventions. We illustrate the proposed decision framework with a case study of typhoon-damaged eastern outer reefs in Palau, Micronesia. The decisions made following this framework lead to the conclusion that some reefs may not return to their historical state for many decades. However, if motivation and funds are available, new management approaches can be explored to assist coral reefs at valued locations to return to a functional state providing key ecosystem services.

Coupled beta diversity patterns among coral reef benthic taxa

Unraveling the processes that drive diversity patterns remains a central challenge for ecology, and an increased understanding is especially urgent to address and mitigate escalating diversity loss. Studies have primarily focused on singular taxonomic groups, but recent research has begun evaluating spatial diversity patterns across multiple taxonomic groups and suggests taxa may have congruence in their diversity patterns. Here, we use surveys of the coral reef benthic groups: scleractinian corals, macroalgae, sponges and gorgonians conducted in the Bahamian Archipelago across 27 sites to determine if there is congruence between taxonomic groups in their site-level diversity patterns (i.e. alpha diversity: number of species, and beta diversity: differences in species composition) while accounting for environmental predictors (i.e. depth, wave exposure, market gravity (i.e. human population size and distance to market), primary productivity, and grazing). Overall, we found that the beta diversities of these benthic groups were significant predictors of each other. The most consistent relationships existed with algae and coral, as their beta diversity was a significant predictor of every other taxa's beta diversity, potentially due to their strong biotic interactions and dominance on the reef. Conversely, we found no congruence patterns in the alpha diversity of the taxa. Market gravity and exposure showed the most prevalent correlation with both alpha and beta diversity for the taxa. Overall, our results suggest that coral reef benthic taxa can have spatial congruence in species composition, but not number of species, and that future research on biodiversity trends should consider that taxa may have non-independent patterns.

Predicting poaching risk in marine protected areas for improved patrol efficiency

Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) are effective resource management and conservation measures, but their success is often hindered by non-compliant activities such as poaching. Understanding the risk factors and spatial patterns of poaching is therefore crucial for efficient law enforcement. Here, we conducted explanatory and predictive modelling of poaching from recreational fishers within no-take zones of Australia's Great Barrier Reef Marine Park (GBRMP) using Boosted Regression Trees (BRT). Combining patrol effort data, observed distribution of reported incidents, and spatially-explicit environmental and human risk factors, we modeled the occurrence probability of poaching incidents and mapped poaching risk at fine-scale. Our results: (i) show that fishing attractiveness, accessibility and fishing capacity play a major role in shaping the spatial patterns of poaching; (ii) revealed key interactions among these factors as well as tipping points beyond which poaching risk increased or decreased markedly; and (iii) highlight gaps in patrol effort that could be filled for improved resource allocation. The approach developed through this study provide a novel way to quantify the relative influence of multiple interacting factors in shaping poaching risk, and hold promises for replication across a broad range of marine or terrestrial settings.