Resistance, tolerance and environmental transmission dynamics determine host extinction risk in a load-dependent amphibian disease

Within- and between-host dynamics of producer and non-producer pathogens

For infections to be maintained in a population, pathogens must compete to colonize hosts and transmit between them. We use an experimental approach to investigate within-and-between host dynamics using the pathogen Pseudomonas aeruginosa and the animal host Caenorhabditis elegans. Within-host interactions can involve the production of goods that are beneficial to all pathogens in the local environment but susceptible to exploitation by non-producers. We exposed the nematode host to ‘producer’ and two ‘non-producer’ bacterial strains (specifically for siderophore production and quorum sensing), in single infections and coinfections, to investigate within-host colonization. Subsequently, we introduced infected nematodes to pathogen-naive populations to allow natural transmission between hosts. We find that producer pathogens are consistently better at colonizing hosts and transmitting between them than non-producers during coinfection and single infection. Non-producers were poor at colonizing hosts and between-host transmission, even when coinfecting with producers. Understanding pathogen dynamics across these multiple levels will ultimately help us predict and control the spread of infections, as well as contribute to explanations for the persistence of cooperative genotypes in natural populations.

Infection burdens and virulence under heat stress: ecological and evolutionary considerations

As a result of global change, hosts and parasites (including pathogens) are experiencing shifts in their thermal environment. Despite the importance of heat stress tolerance for host population persistence, infection by parasites can impair a host's ability to cope with heat. Host-parasite eco-evolutionary dynamics will be affected if infection reduces host performance during heating. Theory predicts that within-host parasite burden (replication rate or number of infecting parasites per host), a key component of parasite fitness, should correlate positively with virulence-the harm caused to hosts during infection. Surprisingly, however, the relationship between within-host parasite burden and virulence during heating is often weak. Here, we describe the current evidence for the link between within-host parasite burden and host heat stress tolerance. We consider the biology of host-parasite systems that may explain the weak or absent link between these two important host and parasite traits during hot conditions. The processes that mediate the relationship between parasite burden and host fitness will be fundamental in ecological and evolutionary responses of host and parasites in a warming world. This article is part of the theme issue 'Infectious disease ecology and evolution in a changing world'.

Host density has limited effects on pathogen invasion, disease-induced declines and within-host infection dynamics across a landscape of disease

1. Host density is hypothesized to be a major driver of variability in the responses and outcomes of wildlife populations following pathogen invasion. While the effects of host density on pathogen transmission have been extensively studied, these studies are dominated by theoretical analyses and small-scale experiments. This focus leads to an incomplete picture regarding how host density drives observed variability in disease outcomes in the field. 2. Here, we leveraged a dataset of hundreds of replicate amphibian populations that varied by orders of magnitude in host density. We used these data to test the effects of host density on three outcomes following the arrival of the amphibian-killing fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd): the probability that Bd successfully invaded a host population and led to a pathogen outbreak, the magnitude of the host population-level decline following an outbreak and within-host infection dynamics that drive population-level outcomes in amphibian-pathogen systems. 3. Based on previous small-scale transmission experiments, we expected that populations with higher densities would be more likely to experience Bd outbreaks and would suffer larger proportional declines following outbreaks. To test these predictions, we developed and fitted a Hidden Markov Model that accounted for imperfectly observed disease outbreak states in the amphibian populations we surveyed. 4. Contrary to our predictions, we found minimal effects of host density on the probability of successful Bd invasion, the magnitude of population decline following Bd invasion and the dynamics of within-host infection intensity. Environmental conditions, such as summer temperature, winter severity and the presence of pathogen reservoirs, were more predictive of variability in disease outcomes. 5. Our results highlight the limitations of extrapolating findings from small-scale transmission experiments to observed disease trajectories in the field and provide strong evidence that variability in host density does not necessarily drive variability in host population responses following pathogen arrival. In an applied context, we show that feedbacks between host density and disease will not necessarily affect the success of reintroduction efforts in amphibian-Bd systems of conservation concern.

National eDNA-based monitoring of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis and amphibian species in Norway

Freshwaters represent the most threatened environments with regard to biodiversity loss and, therefore, there is a need for national monitoring programs to effectively document species distribution and evaluate potential risks for vulnerable species. The monitoring of species for effective management practices is, however, challenged by insufficient data acquisition when using traditional methods. Here we present the application of environmental DNA (eDNA) metabarcoding of amphibians in combination with quantitative PCR (qPCR) assays for an invasive pathogenic chytrid species (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis -Bd), a potential threat to endemic and endangered amphibian species. Statistical comparison of amphibian species detection using either traditional or eDNA-based approaches showed weak correspondence. By tracking the distribution of Bd over three years, we concluded that the risk for amphibian extinction is low since Bd was only detected at five sites where multiple amphibians were present over the sampled years. Our results show that eDNA-based detection can be used for simultaneous monitoring of amphibian diversity and the presence of amphibian pathogens at the national level in order to assess potential species extinction risks and establish effective management practices. As such our study represents suggestions for a national monitoring program based on eDNA.

Host traits and environment interact to determine persistence of bat populations impacted by white-nose syndrome

Emerging infectious diseases have resulted in severe population declines across diverse taxa. In some instances, despite attributes associated with high extinction risk, disease emergence and host declines are followed by host stabilisation for unknown reasons. While host, pathogen, and the environment are recognised as important factors that interact to determine host-pathogen coexistence, they are often considered independently. Here, we use a translocation experiment to disentangle the role of host traits and environmental conditions in driving the persistence of remnant bat populations a decade after they declined 70-99% due to white-nose syndrome and subsequently stabilised. While survival was significantly higher than during the initial epidemic within all sites, protection from severe disease only existed within a narrow environmental space, suggesting host traits conducive to surviving disease are highly environmentally dependent. Ultimately, population persistence following pathogen invasion is the product of host-pathogen interactions that vary across a patchwork of environments.

Integrating Infection Intensity into Within- and Between-Host Pathogen Dynamics: Implications for Invasion and Virulence Evolution

AbstractInfection intensity can dictate disease outcomes but is typically ignored when modeling infection dynamics of microparasites (e.g., bacteria, virus, and fungi). However, for a number of pathogens of wildlife typically categorized as microparasites, accounting for infection intensity and within-host infection processes is critical for predicting population-level responses to pathogen invasion. Here, we develop a modeling framework we refer to as reduced-dimension host-parasite integral projection models (reduced IPMs) that we use to explore how within-host infection processes affect the dynamics of pathogen invasion and virulence evolution. We find that individual-level heterogeneity in pathogen load-a nearly ubiquitous characteristic of host-parasite interactions that is rarely considered in models of microparasites-generally reduces pathogen invasion probability and dampens virulence-transmission trade-offs in host-parasite systems. The latter effect likely contributes to widely predicted virulence-transmission trade-offs being difficult to observe empirically. Moreover, our analyses show that intensity-dependent host mortality does not always induce a virulence-transmission trade-off, and systems with steeper than linear relationships between pathogen intensity and host mortality rate are significantly more likely to exhibit these trade-offs. Overall, reduced IPMs provide a useful framework to expand our theoretical and data-driven understanding of how within-host processes affect population-level disease dynamics.

Extraction-free detection of amphibian pathogens from water baths

Detecting and quantifying pathogens with quick, cost-efficient and sensitive methods is needed across disease systems for addressing pertinent epidemiological questions. Typical methods rely on extracting DNA from collected samples. Here we develop and test an extraction-free method from water bath samples that is both sensitive and efficient for 2 major amphibian pathogens-Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis and B. salamandrivorans. We tested mock samples with known pathogen quantities as well as comparatively assessed detection from skin swabs and water baths from field sampled amphibians. Quantitative PCR (qPCR) directly on lyophilized water baths was able to reliably detect low loads of 10 and 1 zoospores for both pathogens, and detection rates were greater than those of swabs from field samples. Further concentration of samples did not improve detection, and collection container type did not influence pathogen load estimates. This method of lyophilization (i.e. freeze-drying) followed by direct qPCR offers an effective and efficient tool from detecting amphibian pathogens, which is crucial for surveillance efforts and estimating shedding rates for robust epidemiological understanding of transmission dynamics. Furthermore, water bath samples have multiple functions and can be used to evaluate mucosal function against pathogens and characterize mucosal components. The multifunctionality of water bath samples and reduced monetary costs and time expenditures make this method an optimal tool for amphibian disease research and may also prove to be useful in other wildlife disease systems.

Global Patterns of the Fungal Pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis Support Conservation Urgency

The amphibian chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) is a skin pathogen that can cause the emerging infectious disease chytridiomycosis in susceptible species. It has been considered one of the most severe threats to amphibian biodiversity. We aimed to provide an updated compilation of global Bd occurrences by host taxon and geography, and with the larger global Bd dataset we reanalyzed Bd associations with environmental metrics at the world and regional scales. We also compared our Bd data compilation with a recent independent assessment to provide a more comprehensive count of species and countries with Bd occurrences. Bd has been detected in 1,375 of 2,525 (55%) species sampled, more than doubling known species infections since 2013. Bd occurrence is known from 93 of 134 (69%) countries at this writing; this compares to known occurrences in 56 of 82 (68%) countries in 2013. Climate-niche space is highly associated with Bd detection, with different climate metrics emerging as key predictors of Bd occurrence at regional scales; this warrants further assessment relative to climate-change projections. The accretion of Bd occurrence reports points to the common aims of worldwide investigators to understand the conservation concerns for amphibian biodiversity in the face of potential disease threat. Renewed calls for better mitigation of amphibian disease threats resonate across continents with amphibians, especially outside Asia. As Bd appears to be able to infect about half of amphibian taxa and sites, there is considerable room for biosecurity actions to forestall its spread using both bottom-up community-run efforts and top-down national-to-international policies. Conservation safeguards for sensitive species and biodiversity refugia are continuing priorities.

Living with the pathogenic chytrid fungus: Exploring mechanisms of coexistence in the harlequin toad Atelopus cruciger

Chytridiomycosis, a disease caused by the fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), has been linked with the disappearance of amphibian populations worldwide. Harlequin toads (Atelopus) are among the most severely impacted genera. Two species are already considered extinct and most of the others are at high risk of extinction. The recent rediscovery of harlequin toad populations coexisting with Bd suggest that the pathogen can maintain enzootic cycles at some locations. The mechanisms promoting coexistence, however, are not well understood. We explore the dynamics of Bd infection in harlequin toads by modeling a two-stage host population with transmission through environmental reservoirs. Simulations showed that variations in the recruitment of adults and the persistence of zoospores in the environment were more likely to drive shifts between extinction and coexistence than changes in the vulnerability of toads to infection with Bd. These findings highlight the need to identify mechanisms for assuring adult recruitment or minimizing transmission from potential reservoirs, biotic or abiotic, in recovering populations.

GEOGRAPHIC AND INDIVIDUAL DETERMINANTS OF IMPORTANT AMPHIBIAN PATHOGENS IN HELLBENDERS (CRYPTOBRANCHUS ALLEGANIENSIS) IN TENNESSEE AND ARKANSAS, USA

Wildlife diseases are a major threat for species conservation and there is a growing need to implement disease surveillance programs to protect species of concern. Globally, amphibian populations have suffered considerable losses from disease, particularly from chytrid fungi (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis [Bd] and Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans [Bsal]) and ranavirus. Hellbenders (Cryptobranchus alleganiensis) are large riverine salamanders historically found throughout several watersheds of the eastern and midwestern US. Populations of both subspecies (Ozark hellbender, Cryptobranchus alleganiensis bishopi; eastern hellbender, Cryptobranchus alleganiensis alleganiensis) have experienced precipitous declines over at least the past five decades, and emerging pathogens are hypothesized to play a role. We surveyed Ozark hellbender populations in Arkansas (AR) and eastern hellbender populations in Middle Tennessee (MTN) and East Tennessee (ETN) for both chytrid fungi and ranavirus from swabs and tail tissue, respectively, from 2011 to 2017. Overall, we detected Bd on hellbenders from nine out of 15 rivers, with total prevalence of 26.7% (54/ 202) that varied regionally (AR: 33%, 28/86; MTN: 11%, 4/36; ETN: 28%, 22/80). Ranavirus prevalence (9.0%, 18/200) was comparatively lower than Bd, with less regional variation in prevalence (AR: 6%, 5/ 85; MTN: 11%, 4/36; ETN: 10%, 8/79). We did not detect Bsal in any hellbender populations. We detected a significant negative correlation between body condition score and probability of ranavirus infection (β=-0.13, SE=0.06, 95% confidence interval: -0.24, -0.02). Evaluation of infection load of positive individuals revealed different trends than prevalence alone for both ranavirus and Bd, with MTN having a significantly greater average ranaviral load than both other regions. We documented a variety of lesions that likely have multiple etiologies on hellbenders located within all geographic regions. Our data represent a multiyear pathogen dataset across several regions of C. alleganiensis, and we emphasize the need for continued pathogen surveillance.

Frequency-dependent transmission of Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans in eastern newts

Transmission is the fundamental process whereby pathogens infect their hosts and spread through populations, and can be characterized using mathematical functions. The functional form of transmission for emerging pathogens can determine pathogen impacts on host populations and can inform the efficacy of disease management strategies. By directly measuring transmission between infected and susceptible adult eastern newts (Notophthalmus viridescens) in aquatic mesocosms, we identified the most plausible transmission function for the emerging amphibian fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans (Bsal). Although we considered a range of possible transmission functions, we found that Bsal transmission was best explained by pure frequency dependence. We observed that >90% of susceptible newts became infected within 17 days post‐exposure to an infected newt across a range of host densities and initial infection prevalence treatments. Under these conditions, we estimated R₀ = 4.9 for Bsal in an eastern newt population. Our results suggest that Bsal has the capability of driving eastern newt populations to extinction and that managing host density may not be an effective management strategy. Intervention strategies that prevent Bsal introduction or increase host resistance or tolerance to infection may be more effective. Our results add to the growing empirical evidence that transmission of wildlife pathogens can saturate and be functionally frequency‐dependent.

Mechanisms underlying host persistence following amphibian disease emergence determine appropriate management strategies

Emerging infectious diseases have caused many species declines, changes in communities and even extinctions. There are also many species that persist following devastating declines due to disease. The broad mechanisms that enable host persistence following declines include evolution of resistance or tolerance, changes in immunity and behaviour, compensatory recruitment, pathogen attenuation, environmental refugia, density-dependent transmission and changes in community composition. Here we examine the case of chytridiomycosis, the most important wildlife disease of the past century. We review the full breadth of mechanisms allowing host persistence, and synthesise research on host, pathogen, environmental and community factors driving persistence following chytridiomycosis-related declines and overview the current evidence and the information required to support each mechanism. We found that for most species the mechanisms facilitating persistence have not been identified. We illustrate how the mechanisms that drive long-term host population dynamics determine the most effective conservation management strategies. Therefore, understanding mechanisms of host persistence is important because many species continue to be threatened by disease, some of which will require intervention. The conceptual framework we describe is broadly applicable to other novel disease systems.

Prevalence of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis in immature eastern hellbenders Cryptobranchus alleganiensis from North Carolina, USA

Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) has been detected in wild hellbender Cryptobranchus alleganiensis populations, with rare instances of chytridiomycosis and Bd-induced mortality. To date, Bd surveillance in hellbender populations has been disproportionately focused on adult age classes. A lingering question is whether Bd might contribute to hellbender declines through disproportionate negative effects on immature age classes. The objective of this study was to quantify Bd prevalence and load in immature hellbenders in western North Carolina, USA. We conducted field surveys during 2018 and 2019 and collected 88 skin swabs from 84 hellbenders spanning 3 age classes. Bd was detected on 11% of individuals, including 8 larvae and 1 juvenile. We did not detect symptoms of chytridiomycosis or a decline in body condition in Bd-positive hellbenders. Load varied from approximately 1-153 zoospore equivalents for the 9 Bd-positive hellbenders and was not associated with size class of the individual. While hellbenders appeared to be abundant in each survey reach, more work is needed to determine whether Bd may increase the vulnerability of immature hellbenders to anthropogenic stressors.

Salinity stress increases the severity of ranavirus epidemics in amphibian populations

The stress-induced susceptibility hypothesis, which predicts chronic stress weakens immune defences, was proposed to explain increasing infectious disease-related mass mortality and population declines. Previous work characterized wetland salinization as a chronic stressor to larval amphibian populations. Thus, we combined field observations with experimental exposures quantifying epidemiological parameters to test the role of salinity stress in the occurrence of ranavirus-associated mass mortality events. Despite ubiquitous pathogen presence (94%), populations exposed to salt runoff had slightly more frequent ranavirus related mass mortality events, more lethal infections, and 117-times greater pathogen environmental DNA. Experimental exposure to chronic elevated salinity (0.8-1.6 g l^-1 Cl^-) reduced tolerance to infection, causing greater mortality at lower doses. We found a strong negative relationship between splenocyte proliferation and corticosterone in ranavirus-infected larvae at a moderate elevation of salinity, supporting glucocorticoid-medicated immunosuppression, but not at high salinity. Salinity alone reduced proliferation further at similar corticosterone levels and infection intensities. Finally, larvae raised in elevated salinity had 10 times more intense infections and shed five times as much virus with similar viral decay rates, suggesting increased transmission. Our findings illustrate how a small change in habitat quality leads to more lethal infections and potentially greater transmission efficiency, increasing the severity of ranavirus epidemics.

Evolutionary principles guiding amphibian conservation

The Anthropocene has witnessed catastrophic amphibian declines across the globe. A multitude of new, primarily human-induced drivers of decline may lead to extinction, but can also push species onto novel evolutionary trajectories. If these are recognized by amphibian biologists, they can be engaged in conservation actions. Here, we summarize how principles stemming from evolutionary concepts have been applied for conservation purposes, and address emerging ideas at the vanguard of amphibian conservation science. In particular, we examine the consequences of increased drift and inbreeding in small populations and their implications for practical conservation. We then review studies of connectivity between populations at the landscape level, which have emphasized the limiting influence of anthropogenic structures and degraded habitat on genetic cohesion. The rapid pace of environmental changes leads to the central question of whether amphibian populations can cope either by adapting to new conditions or by shifting their ranges. We gloomily conclude that extinction seems far more likely than adaptation or range shifts for most species. That said, conservation strategies employing evolutionary principles, such as selective breeding, introduction of adaptive variants through translocations, ecosystem interventions aimed at decreasing phenotype-environment mismatch, or genetic engineering, may effectively counter amphibian decline in some areas or for some species. The spread of invasive species and infectious diseases has often had disastrous consequences, but has also provided some premier examples of rapid evolution with conservation implications. Much can be done in terms of setting aside valuable amphibian habitat that should encompass both natural and agricultural areas, as well as designing protected areas to maximize the phylogenetic and functional diversity of the amphibian community. We conclude that an explicit consideration and application of evolutionary principles, although certainly not a silver bullet, should increase effectiveness of amphibian conservation in both the short and long term.

Host density and habitat structure influence host contact rates and Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans transmission

Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans (Bsal) is an emerging invasive pathogen that is highly pathogenic to salamander species. Modeling infection dynamics in this system can facilitate proactive efforts to mitigate this pathogen's impact on North American species. Given its widespread distribution and high abundance, the eastern newt (Notophthalmus viridescens) has the potential to significantly influence Bsal epidemiology. We designed experiments to 1) estimate contact rates given different host densities and habitat structure and 2) estimate the probability of transmission from infected to susceptible individuals. Using parameter estimates from data generated during these experiments, we modeled infection and disease outcomes for a population of newts using a system of differential equations. We found that host contact rates were density-dependent, and that adding habitat structure reduced contacts. The probability of Bsal transmission given contact between newts was very high (>90%) even at early stages of infection. Our simulations show rapid transmission of Bsal among individuals following pathogen introduction, with infection prevalence exceeding 90% within one month and >80% mortality of newts in three months. Estimates of basic reproductive rate (R₀) of Bsal for eastern newts were 1.9 and 3.2 for complex and simple habitats, respectively. Although reducing host density and increasing habitat complexity might decrease transmission, these management strategies may be ineffective at stopping Bsal invasion in eastern newt populations due to this species’ hyper-susceptibility.

Spatiotemporal heterogeneity decouples infection parameters of amphibian chytridiomycosis

Emerging infectious diseases are responsible for declines in wildlife populations around the globe. Mass mortality events associated with emerging infectious diseases are often associated with high number of infected individuals (prevalence) and high pathogen loads within individuals (intensity). At the landscape scale, spatial and temporal variation in environmental conditions can alter the relationship between these infection parameters and blur the overall picture of disease dynamics. Quantitative estimates of how infection parameters covary with environmental heterogeneity at the landscape scale are scarce. If we are to identify wild populations at risk of disease epidemics, we must elucidate the factors that shape, and potentially decouple, the link between pathogen prevalence and intensity of infection over complex ecological landscapes. Using a network of 41 populations of the amphibian host Rana pipiens in Ontario, Canada, we present the spatial and temporal heterogeneity in pathogen prevalence and intensity of infection of the chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), across a 3-year period. We then quantify how covariation between both infection parameters measured during late summer is modified by previously experienced spatiotemporal environmental heterogeneity across 14 repeat sampled populations. Late summer Bd infection parameters are governed, at least in part, by different environmental factors operating during separate host life-history events. Our results provide evidence for a relationship between Bd prevalence and thermal regimes prior to host breeding at the site level, and a relationship between intensity of infection and aquatic conditions (precipitation, hydroshed size and river density) throughout host breeding period at the site level. This demonstrates that microclimatic variation within temporal windows can drive divergent patterns of pathogen dynamics within and across years, by effecting changes in host behaviour which interfere with the pathogen's ability to infect and re-infect hosts. A clearer understanding of the role that spatiotemporal heterogeneity has upon infection parameters will provide valuable insights into host-pathogen epidemiology, as well as more fundamental aspects of the ecology and evolution of interspecific interactions.

When Micro Drives the Macro: A Fresh Look at Disease and its Massive Contributions in the Hindu Kush-Himalaya

The outbreaks of emerging and reemerging diseases have a high impact on the human and animal health because they are the underlying causes of disability, death, and long-term illness. For many regions those details are not, or just poorly known. Here we present on the morbidity and mortality in faunal diversities including domestic and wild species caused by various viral, bacterial, parasitic, and fungal diseases prevalent in Nepal and relevant for the wider Hindu Kush Himalaya. In addition, we provide details how antibiotic resistivity, vectors, and zoonosis have resulted on a landscape-scale in the huge public and veterinary health problem has been dealt with in the context of Nepal and the wider region.

What Have Long-Term Field Studies Taught Us About Population Dynamics?

Long-term studies have been crucial to the advancement of population biology, especially our understanding of population dynamics. We argue that this progress arises from three key characteristics of long-term research. First, long-term data are necessary to observe the heterogeneity that drives most population processes. Second, long-term studies often inherently lead to novel insights. Finally, long-term field studies can serve as model systems for population biology, allowing for theory and methods to be tested under well-characterized conditions. We illustrate these ideas in three long-term field systems that have made outsized contributions to our understanding of population ecology, evolution, and conservation biology. We then highlight three emerging areas to which long-term field studies are well positioned to contribute in the future: ecological forecasting, genomics, and macrosystems ecology. Overcoming the obstacles associated with maintaining long-term studies requires continued emphasis on recognizing the benefits of such studies to ensure that long-term research continues to have a substantial impact on elucidating population biology.

Quantifying the burden of managing wildlife diseases in multiple host species

Mitigation of infectious wildlife diseases is especially challenging where pathogens affect communities of multiple host species. Although most ecological studies recognize the challenge posed by multiple-species pathogens, the implications for management are typically assessed only qualitatively. Translating the intuitive understanding that multiple host species are important into practice requires a quantitative assessment of whether and how secondary host species should also be targeted by management and the effort this will require. Using a multiple-species compartmental model, we determined analytically whether and how intensively secondary host species should be managed to prevent outbreaks in focal hosts based on the reproduction number of individual host species and between-species transmission rates. We applied the model to the invasive pathogenic fungus Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans in a 2-host system in northern Europe. Avoiding a disease outbreak in the focal host (fire salamanders [Salamandra salamandra]) was impossible unless management also heavily targeted the secondary host (alpine newts [Ichthyosaura alpestris]). Preventing an outbreak in the community required targeted removal of at least 80% of each species. This proportion increased to 90% in the presence of an environmental reservoir of B. salamandrivorans and when the proportion of individuals removed could not be adjusted for different host species (e.g., when using traps that are not species specific). We recommend the focus of disease-mitigation plans should shift from focal species to the community level and calculate explicitly the management efforts required on secondary host species to move beyond the simple intuitive understanding that multiple host species may all influence the system. Failure to do so may lead to underestimating the magnitude of the effort required and ultimately to suboptimal or futile management attempts.

Ancestral chytrid pathogen remains hypervirulent following its long coevolution with amphibian hosts

Many amphibian species around the world, except in Asia, suffer morbidity and mortality when infected by the emerging infectious pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). A lineage of the amphibian chytrid fungus isolated from South Korean amphibians (BdAsia-1) is evolutionarily basal to recombinant global pandemic lineages (BdGPL) associated with worldwide amphibian population declines. In Asia, the Bd pathogen and its amphibian hosts have coevolved over 100 years or more. Thus, resilience of Asian amphibian populations to infection might result from attenuated virulence of endemic Bd lineages, evolved immunity to the pathogen or both. We compared susceptibilities of an Australasian amphibian, Litoria caerulea, known to lack resistance to BdGPL, with those of three Korean species, Bufo gargarizans, Bombina orientalis and Hyla japonica, after inoculation with BdAsia-1, BdGPL or a blank solution. Subjects became infected in all experimental treatments but Korean species rapidly cleared themselves of infection, regardless of Bd lineage. They survived with no apparent secondary effects. By contrast, L. caerulea, after infection by either BdAsia-1 or BdGPL, suffered deteriorating body condition and carried progressively higher Bd loads over time. Subsequently, most subjects died. Comparing their effects on L. caerulea, BdAsia-1 induced more rapid disease progression than BdGPL. The results suggest that genomic recombination with other lineages was not necessary for the ancestral Bd lineage to evolve hypervirulence over its long period of coevolution with amphibian hosts. The pathogen's virulence may have driven strong selection for immune responses in endemic Asian amphibian host species.

Elevated atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide reduce monarch tolerance and increase parasite virulence by altering the medicinal properties of milkweeds

Hosts combat their parasites using mechanisms of resistance and tolerance, which together determine parasite virulence. Environmental factors, including diet, mediate the impact of parasites on hosts, with diet providing nutritional and medicinal properties. Here, we present the first evidence that ongoing environmental change decreases host tolerance and increases parasite virulence through a loss of dietary medicinal quality. Monarch butterflies use dietary toxins (cardenolides) to reduce the deleterious impacts of a protozoan parasite. We fed monarch larvae foliage from four milkweed species grown under either elevated or ambient CO₂ , and measured changes in resistance, tolerance, and virulence. The most high-cardenolide milkweed species lost its medicinal properties under elevated CO₂ ; monarch tolerance to infection decreased, and parasite virulence increased. Declines in medicinal quality were associated with declines in foliar concentrations of lipophilic cardenolides. Our results emphasize that global environmental change may influence parasite-host interactions through changes in the medicinal properties of plants.

Host-pathogen metapopulation dynamics suggest high elevation refugia for boreal toads

Emerging infectious diseases are an increasingly common threat to wildlife. Chytridiomycosis, caused by the fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), is an emerging infectious disease that has been linked to amphibian declines around the world. Few studies exist that explore amphibian-Bd dynamics at the landscape scale, limiting our ability to identify which factors are associated with variation in population susceptibility and to develop effective in situ disease management. Declines of boreal toads (Anaxyrus boreas boreas) in the southern Rocky Mountains are largely attributed to chytridiomycosis but variation exists in local extinction of boreal toads across this metapopulation. Using a large-scale historic data set, we explored several potential factors influencing disease dynamics in the boreal toad-Bd system: geographic isolation of populations, amphibian community richness, elevational differences, and habitat permanence. We found evidence that boreal toad extinction risk was lowest at high elevations where temperatures may be suboptimal for Bd growth and where small boreal toad populations may be below the threshold needed for efficient pathogen transmission. In addition, boreal toads were more likely to recolonize high elevation sites after local extinction, again suggesting that high elevations may provide refuge from disease for boreal toads. We illustrate a modeling framework that will be useful to natural resource managers striving to make decisions in amphibian-Bd systems. Our data suggest that in the southern Rocky Mountains high elevation sites should be prioritized for conservation initiatives like reintroductions.

Do fatal infectious diseases eradicate host species?

In simple SI epidemic and endemic models, three classes of incidence functions are identified for their potential to be associated with host extinction: weakly upper density-dependent incidences are never associated with host extinction. Power incidences that depend on the number of susceptibles and infectives by powers strictly between 0 and 1 are associated with initial-constellation-dependent host extinction for all parameter values. Homogeneous incidences, of which frequency-dependent incidence is a very particular case, and power incidences are associated with global host extinction for certain parameter constellations and with host survival for others. Laboratory infection experiments with salamander larvae are equally well fitted by power incidences and certain upper density-dependent incidences such as the negative binomial incidence and do not rule out homogeneous incidences such as an asymmetric frequency-dependent incidence either.

Seasonal migrations, body temperature fluctuations, and infection dynamics in adult amphibians

Risks of parasitism vary over time, with infection prevalence often fluctuating with seasonal changes in the annual cycle. Identifying the biological mechanisms underlying seasonality in infection can enable better prediction and prevention of future infection peaks. Obtaining longitudinal data on individual infections and traits across seasons throughout the annual cycle is perhaps the most effective means of achieving this aim, yet few studies have obtained such information for wildlife. Here, we tracked spiny common toads (Bufo spinosus) within and across annual cycles to assess seasonal variation in movement, body temperatures and infection from the fungal parasite, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). Across annual cycles, toads did not consistently sustain infections but instead gained and lost infections from year to year. Radio-tracking showed that infected toads lose infections during post-breeding migrations, and no toads contracted infection following migration, which may be one explanation for the inter-annual variability in Bd infections. We also found pronounced seasonal variation in toad body temperatures. Body temperatures approached 0 °C during winter hibernation but remained largely within the thermal tolerance range of Bd. These findings provide direct documentation of migratory recovery (i.e., loss of infection during migration) and escape in a wild population. The body temperature reductions that we observed during hibernation warrant further consideration into the role that this period plays in seasonal Bd dynamics.