The shape of abundance distributions across temperature gradients in reef fishes

Food web trophic control modulates tropical Atlantic reef ecosystems response to marine heat wave intensity and duration

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) are episodes of anomalous warming in the ocean that can last from a few days to years. MHWs have different characteristics in terms of intensity, duration and frequency and generate thermal stress in marine ecosystems. In reef ecosystems, they are one of the main causes of the decreased presence and abundance of corals, invertebrates and fish. The deleterious capacity of thermal stress often depends on biotic factors, such as the trophic control of predators on prey. Despite the evidence of thermal stress and biotic factors affecting individual species, the combined effects of both stressors on entire reef ecosystems are much less studied. Here, using a food web modelling approach, we estimated the rate of change in species' biomass due to different MHW characteristics. Specifically, we modelled the mechanistic link between species' consumption rate and seawater temperature (thermal stressor), simulating species' biomass dynamics for different MHW characteristics under different trophic control assumptions (top-down, mixed trophic control and bottom-up). We find that total reef ecosystem biomass declined by 10% ± 5% under MHWs with severe intensity and a top-down control assumption. The bottom-up control assumption moderates the total ecosystem biomass reduction by 5% ± 5%. Irrespective of the MHW characteristics and the trophic control assumption, the most substantial biomass changes occur among top, mesopredators and corals (5% to 20% ± 10%). We show that reef ecosystems where predators exert top-down control on prey are prone to suffer species abundance declines under strong MHW events. We identify food web trophic control as a crucial driver that modulates the impacts of MHWs. Overall, our results provide a unified understanding of the interplay between abiotic stressors and biotic factors in reef ecosystems under extreme thermal events, offering insights into present baselines and future ecological states for reef ecosystems.

Marine fishes experiencing high-velocity range shifts may not be climate change winners

Climate change is driving the global redistribution of species. A common assumption is that rapid range shifts occur in tandem with overall stable or positive abundance trends throughout the range and thus these species may be considered as climate change 'winners'. However, although establishing the link between range shift velocities and population trends is crucial for predicting climate change impacts it has not been empirically tested. Using 2,572 estimates of changes in marine fish abundance spread across the world's oceans, we show that poleward range shifts are not necessarily associated with positive population trends. Species experiencing high-velocity range shifts seem to experience local population declines irrespective of the position throughout the species range. High range shift velocities of 17 km yr-1 are associated with a 50% decrease in population sizes over a period of 10 yr, which is dramatic compared to the overall stable population trends in non-shifting species. This pattern, however, mostly occurs in populations located in the poleward, colder, portion of the species range. The lack of a positive association between poleward range shift velocities and population trends at the coldest portion of the range contrasts with the view that rapid range shifts safeguard against local population declines. Instead, our work suggests that marine fishes experiencing rapid range shifts could be more vulnerable to climatic change and therefore should be carefully assessed for conservation status.

Niche position and niche breadth effects on population abundances: A case study of New World Warblers (Parulidae)

Species abundance patterns are influenced by a myriad of factors, including habitat availability and ecological niche characteristics. However, the evidence concerning the specific impact factors such as niche position and niche breadth on mean and maximum abundances in vertebrates at a broad geographical scale remains inconclusive. In this study, we investigated the influence of niche position and breadth on the abundance of 47 species of birds belonging to the Parulidae family, commonly known as New World Warblers. We obtained data on abundance and presence records spanning the reproductive distribution of these species and employed the outlying mean index analysis to calculate niche position and niche breadth. We assessed the relationship between abundance metrics and niche descriptors using phylogenetic regressions to account for the non-independence resulting from phylogenetic ancestry. Initially, we developed individual models for each predictor and subsequently formulated a multi-predictor model encompassing niche position, niche breadth, and their interaction. Our findings revealed a negative relationship between niche position and both mean and maximum abundance, while niche breadth exhibited a positive relationship with these niche characteristics. Notably, the results of the multi-predictor models indicated that niche position exerted the most substantial influence on both mean and maximum abundance. Additionally, the interaction between niche position and niche breadth had the most positive and significant contribution to mean population abundance. This study underscores the need for future research in other vertebrates to delve into the mechanisms underlying these patterns. Such endeavors will not only enhance our understanding of ecological dynamics but also equip us with predictive capabilities to anticipate population responses to environmental changes effectively.

Diversity across organisational scale emerges through dispersal ability and speciation dynamics in tropical fish

BACKGROUND

Biodiversity exists at different levels of organisation: e.g. genetic, individual, population, species, and community. These levels of organisation all exist within the same system, with diversity patterns emerging across organisational scales through several key processes. Despite this inherent interconnectivity, observational studies reveal that diversity patterns across levels are not consistent and the underlying mechanisms for variable continuity in diversity across levels remain elusive. To investigate these mechanisms, we apply a spatially explicit simulation model to simulate the global diversification of tropical reef fishes at both the population and species levels through emergent population-level processes.

RESULTS

We find significant relationships between the population and species levels of diversity which vary depending on both the measure of diversity and the spatial partitioning considered. In turn, these population-species relationships are driven by modelled biological trait parameters, especially the divergence threshold at which populations speciate.

CONCLUSIONS

To explain variation in multi-level diversity patterns, we propose a simple, yet novel, population-to-species diversity partitioning mechanism through speciation which disrupts continuous diversity patterns across organisational levels. We expect that in real-world systems this mechanism is driven by the molecular dynamics that determine genetic incompatibility, and therefore reproductive isolation between individuals. We put forward a framework in which the mechanisms underlying patterns of diversity across organisational levels are universal, and through this show how variable patterns of diversity can emerge through organisational scale.

Multiscale Spatial Variability and Stability in the Structure and Diversity of Bacterial Communities Associated with the Kelp Eisenia cokeri in Peru

Ecological communities are structured by a range of processes that operate over a range of spatial scales. While our understanding of such biodiversity patterns in macro-communities is well studied, our understanding at the microbial level is still lacking. Bacteria can be free living or associated with host eukaryotes, forming part of a wider "microbiome," which is fundamental for host performance and health. For habitat forming foundation-species, host-bacteria relationships likely play disproportionate roles in mediating processes for the wider ecosystem. Here, we describe host-bacteria communities across multiple spatial scales (i.e., from 10s of m to 100s of km) in the understudied kelp, Eisenia cokeri, in Peru. We found that E. cokeri supports a distinct bacterial community compared to the surrounding seawater, but the structure of these communities varied markedly at the regional (~480 km), site (1-10 km), and individual (10s of m) scale. The marked regional-scale differences we observed may be driven by a range of processes, including temperature, upwelling intensity, or regional connectivity patterns. However, despite this variability, we observed consistency in the form of a persistent core community at the genus level. Here, the genera Arenicella, Blastopirellula, Granulosicoccus, and Litorimonas were found in >80% of samples and comprised ~53% of total sample abundance. These genera have been documented within bacterial communities associated with kelps and other seaweed species from around the world and may be important for host function and wider ecosystem health in general.

Abrupt expansion of climate change risks for species globally

Climate change is already exposing species to dangerous temperatures driving widespread population and geographical contractions. However, little is known about how these risks of thermal exposure will expand across species' existing geographical ranges over time as climate change continues. Here, using geographical data for approximately 36,000 marine and terrestrial species and climate projections to 2100, we show that the area of each species' geographical range at risk of thermal exposure will expand abruptly. On average, more than 50% of the increase in exposure projected for a species will occur in a single decade. This abruptness is partly due to the rapid pace of future projected warming but also because the greater area available at the warm end of thermal gradients constrains species to disproportionately occupy sites close to their upper thermal limit. These geographical constraints on the structure of species ranges operate both on land and in the ocean and mean that, even in the absence of amplifying ecological feedbacks, thermally sensitive species may be inherently vulnerable to sudden warming-driven collapse. With higher levels of warming, the number of species passing these thermal thresholds, and at risk of abrupt and widespread thermal exposure, increases, doubling from less than 15% to more than 30% between 1.5 °C and 2.5 °C of global warming. These results indicate that climate threats to thousands of species are expected to expand abruptly in the coming decades, thereby highlighting the urgency of mitigation and adaptation actions.

Can metabolic traits explain animal community assembly and functioning?

All animals on Earth compete for free energy, which is acquired, assimilated, and ultimately allocated to growth and reproduction. Competition is strongest within communities of sympatric, ecologically similar animals of roughly equal size (i.e. horizontal communities), which are often the focus of traditional community ecology. The replacement of taxonomic identities with functional traits has improved our ability to decipher the ecological dynamics that govern the assembly and functioning of animal communities. Yet, the use of low-resolution and taxonomically idiosyncratic traits in animals may have hampered progress to date. An animal's metabolic rate (MR) determines the costs of basic organismal processes and activities, thus linking major aspects of the multifaceted constructs of ecological niches (where, when, and how energy is obtained) and ecological fitness (how much energy is accumulated and passed on to future generations). We review evidence from organismal physiology to large-scale analyses across the tree of life to propose that MR gives rise to a group of meaningful functional traits - resting metabolic rate (RMR), maximum metabolic rate (MMR), and aerobic scope (AS) - that may permit an improved quantification of the energetic basis of species coexistence and, ultimately, the assembly and functioning of animal communities. Specifically, metabolic traits integrate across a variety of typical trait proxies for energy acquisition and allocation in animals (e.g. body size, diet, mobility, life history, habitat use), to yield a smaller suite of continuous quantities that: (1) can be precisely measured for individuals in a standardized fashion; and (2) apply to all animals regardless of their body plan, habitat, or taxonomic affiliation. While integrating metabolic traits into animal community ecology is neither a panacea to disentangling the nuanced effects of biological differences on animal community structure and functioning, nor without challenges, a small number of studies across different taxa suggest that MR may serve as a useful proxy for the energetic basis of competition in animals. Thus, the application of MR traits for animal communities can lead to a more general understanding of community assembly and functioning, enhance our ability to trace eco-evolutionary dynamics from genotypes to phenotypes (and vice versa), and help predict the responses of animal communities to environmental change. While trait-based ecology has improved our knowledge of animal communities to date, a more explicit energetic lens via the integration of metabolic traits may further strengthen the existing framework.

Safeguarding nutrients from coral reefs under climate change

The sustainability of coral reef fisheries is jeopardized by complex and interacting socio-ecological stressors that undermine their contribution to food and nutrition security. Climate change has emerged as one of the key stressors threatening coral reefs and their fish-associated services. How fish nutrient concentrations respond to warming oceans remains unclear but these responses are probably affected by both direct (metabolism and trophodynamics) and indirect (habitat and species range shifts) effects. Climate-driven coral habitat loss can cause changes in fish abundance and biomass, revealing potential winners and losers among major fisheries targets that can be predicted using ecological indicators and biological traits. A critical next step is to extend research focused on the quantity of available food (fish biomass) to also consider its nutritional quality, which is relevant to progress in the fields of food security and malnutrition. Biological traits are robust predictors of fish nutrient content and thus potentially indicate how climate-driven changes are expected to impact nutrient availability within future food webs on coral reefs. Here, we outline future research priorities and an anticipatory framework towards sustainable reef fisheries contributing to nutrition-sensitive food systems in a warming ocean.

Modeling demersal fish and benthic invertebrate assemblages in support of marine conservation planning

Marine classification schemes based on abiotic surrogates often inform regional marine conservation planning in lieu of detailed biological data. However, these schemes may poorly represent ecologically relevant biological patterns required for effective design and management strategies. We used a community-level modeling approach to characterize and delineate representative mesoscale (tens to thousands of kilometers) assemblages of demersal fish and benthic invertebrates in the Northwest Atlantic. Hierarchical clustering of species occurrence data from four regional annual multispecies trawl surveys revealed three to six groupings (predominant assemblage types) in each survey region, broadly associated with geomorphic and oceanographic features. Indicator analyses identified 3-34 emblematic taxa of each assemblage type. Random forest classifications accurately predicted assemblage distributions from environmental covariates (AUC > 0.95) and identified thermal limits (annual minimum and maximum bottom temperatures) as important predictors of distribution in each region. Using forecasted oceanographic conditions for the year 2075 and a regional classification model, we projected assemblage distributions in the southernmost bioregion (Scotian Shelf-Bay of Fundy) under a high emissions climate scenario (RCP 8.5). Range expansions to the northeast are projected for assemblages associated with warmer and shallower waters of the Western Scotian Shelf over the 21st century as thermal habitat on the relatively cooler Eastern Scotian Shelf becomes more favorable. Community-level modeling provides a biotic-informed approach for identifying broadscale ecological structure required for the design and management of ecologically coherent, representative, well-connected networks of Marine Protected Areas. When combined with oceanographic forecasts, this modeling approach provides a spatial tool for assessing sensitivity and resilience to climate change, which can improve conservation planning, monitoring, and adaptive management.

Spatial patterns in the contribution of biotic and abiotic factors to the population dynamics of three freshwater fish species

BACKGROUND

Population dynamics are driven by a number of biotic (e.g., density-dependence) and abiotic (e.g., climate) factors whose contribution can greatly vary across study systems (i.e., populations). Yet, the extent to which the contribution of these factors varies across populations and between species and whether spatial patterns can be identified has received little attention.

METHODS

Here, we used a long-term (1982-2011), broad scale (182 sites distributed across metropolitan France) dataset to study spatial patterns in the population's dynamics of three freshwater fish species presenting contrasted life-histories and patterns of elevation range shifts in recent decades. We used a hierarchical Bayesian approach together with an elasticity analysis to estimate the relative contribution of a set of biotic (e.g., strength of density dependence, recruitment rate) and abiotic (mean and variability of water temperature) factors affecting the site-specific dynamic of two different size classes (0⁺ and >0⁺ individuals) for the three species. We then tested whether the local contribution of each factor presented evidence for biogeographical patterns by confronting two non-mutually exclusive hypotheses: the "range-shift" hypothesis that predicts a gradient along elevation or latitude and the "abundant-center" hypothesis that predicts a gradient from the center to the edge of the species' distributional range.

RESULTS

Despite contrasted life-histories, the three species displayed similar large-scale patterns in population dynamics with a much stronger contribution of biotic factors over abiotic ones. Yet, the contribution of the different factors strongly varied within distributional ranges and followed distinct spatial patterns. Indeed, while abiotic factors mostly varied along elevation, biotic factors-which disproportionately contributed to population dynamics-varied along both elevation and latitude.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall while our results provide stronger support for the range-shift hypothesis, they also highlight the dual effect of distinct factors on spatial patterns in population dynamics and can explain the overall difficulty to find general evidence for geographic gradients in natural populations. We propose that considering the separate contribution of the factors affecting population dynamics could help better understand the drivers of abundance-distribution patterns.

Climate change: Large-scale abundance shifts in fishes

Warming seas are driving a mass-scale restructuring of marine life, with observed responses expanding beyond species' range shifts. New evidence highlights large regions where ecological change has been dominated by the declining abundance of species that prefer cooler waters.

Modelling the impacts of climate change on thermal habitat suitability for shallow-water marine fish at a global scale

Understanding and predicting the response of marine communities to climate change at large spatial scales, and distilling this information for policymakers, are prerequisites for ecosystem-based management. Changes in thermal habitat suitability across species’ distributions are especially concerning because of their implications for abundance, affecting species’ conservation, trophic interactions and fisheries. However, most predictive studies of the effects of climate change have tended to be sub-global in scale and focused on shifts in species’ range edges or commercially exploited species. Here, we develop a widely applicable methodology based on climate response curves to predict global-scale changes in thermal habitat suitability. We apply the approach across the distributions of 2,293 shallow-water fish species under Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5 by 2050–2100. We find a clear pattern of predicted declines in thermal habitat suitability in the tropics versus general increases at higher latitudes. The Indo-Pacific, the Caribbean and western Africa emerge as the areas of most concern, where high species richness and the strongest declines in thermal habitat suitability coincide. This reflects a pattern of consistently narrow thermal ranges, with most species in these regions already exposed to temperatures above inferred thermal optima. In contrast, in temperate regions, such as northern Europe, where most species live below thermal optima and thermal ranges are wider, positive changes in thermal habitat suitability suggest that these areas are likely to emerge as the greatest beneficiaries of climate change, despite strong predicted temperature increases.

A systematic review of spatial habitat associations and modeling of marine fish distribution: A guide to predictors, methods, and knowledge gaps

As species distribution models, and similar techniques, have emerged in marine ecology, a vast array of predictor variables have been created and diverse methodologies have been applied. Marine fish are vital food resources worldwide, yet identifying the most suitable methodology and predictors to characterize spatial habitat associations, and the subsequent distributions, often remains ambiguous. Our objectives were to identify knowledge gaps in fish guilds, identify research themes, and to determine how data sources, statistics, and predictor variables differ among fish guilds. Data were obtained from an international literature search of peer-reviewed articles (2007-2018; n = 225) and research themes were determined based on abstracts. We tested for differences in data sources and modeling techniques using multinomial regressions and used a linear discriminant analysis to distinguish differences in predictors among fish guilds. Our results show predictive studies increased over time, but studies of forage fish, sharks, coral reef fish, and other fish guilds remain sparse. Research themes emphasized habitat suitability and distribution shifts, but also addressed abundance, occurrence, stock assessment, and biomass. Methodologies differed by fish guilds based on data limitations and research theme. The most frequent predictors overall were depth and temperature, but most fish guilds were distinguished by their own set of predictors that focused on their specific life history and ecology. A one-size-fits-all approach is not suitable for predicting marine fish distributions. However, given the paucity of studies for some fish guilds, researchers would benefit from utilizing predictors and methods derived from more commonly studied fish when similar habitat requirements are expected. Overall, the findings provide a guide for determining predictor variables to test and identifies novel opportunities to apply non-spatial knowledge and mechanisms to models.

Habitat loss and range shifts contribute to ecological generalization among reef fishes

Human activities are altering the structure of ecological communities, often favouring generalists over specialists. For reef fishes, increasingly degraded habitats and climate-driven range shifts may independently augment generalization, particularly if fishes with least-specific habitat requirements are more likely to shift geographic ranges to track their thermal niche. Using a unique global dataset on temperate and tropical reef fishes and habitat composition, we calculated a species generalization index that empirically estimates the habitat niche breadth of each fish species. We then applied the species generalization index to evaluate potential impacts of habitat loss and range shifts across large scales, on coral and rocky reefs. Our analyses revealed consistent habitat-induced shifts in community structure that favoured generalist fishes following regional coral mortality events and between adjacent sea urchin barrens and kelp habitats. Analysis of the distribution of tropical fishes also identified the species generalization index as the most important trait in predicting their poleward range extent, more so than body or range size. Generalist tropical reef fishes penetrate further into subtropical and temperate zones than specialists. Dynamic responses of reef fishes to habitat degradation imply loss of specialists at local scales, while generalists will be broadly favoured under intensifying anthropogenic pressures. An increased focus on individual requirements of specialists could provide useful guidance for species threat assessments and conservation actions, while ecosystem and multi-species fisheries models should recognize increasing prevalence of generalists.

Direct and indirect effects of heatwaves on a coral reef fishery

Marine heatwaves are increasing in frequency and intensity, and indirectly impacting coral reef fisheries through bleaching-induced degradation of live coral habitats. Marine heatwaves also affect fish metabolism and catchability, but such direct effects of elevated temperatures on reef fisheries are largely unknown. We investigated direct and indirect effects of the devastating 2016 marine heatwave on the largest reef fishery operating along the Great Barrier Reef (GBR). We used a combination of fishery-independent underwater census data on coral trout biomass (Plectropomus and Variola spp.) and catch-per-unit-effort (CPUE) data from the commercial fishery to evaluate changes in the fishery resulting from the 2016 heatwave. The heatwave caused widespread, yet locally patchy, declines in coral cover, but we observed little effect of local coral loss on coral trout biomass. Instead, a pattern of decreasing biomass at northern sites and stable or increasing biomass at southern sites suggested a direct response of populations to the heatwave. Analysis of the fishery-independent data and CPUE found that in-water coral trout biomass estimates were positively related to CPUE, and that coral trout catch rates increased with warmer temperatures. Temperature effects on catch rates were consistent with the thermal affinities of the multiple species contributing to this fishery. Scaling-up the effect of temperature on coral trout catch rates across the region suggests that GBR-wide catches were 18% higher for a given level of effort during the heatwave year relative to catch rates under the mean temperatures in the preceding 6 years. These results highlight a potentially large effect of heatwaves on catch rates of reef fishes, independent of changes in reef habitats, that can add substantial uncertainty to estimates of stock trends inferred from fishery-dependent (CPUE) data. Overestimation of CPUE could initiate declines in reef fisheries that are currently fully exploited, and threaten sustainable management of reef stocks.

Fish heating tolerance scales similarly across individual physiology and populations

Extrapolating patterns from individuals to populations informs climate vulnerability models, yet biological responses to warming are uncertain at both levels. Here we contrast data on the heating tolerances of fishes from laboratory experiments with abundance patterns of wild populations. We find that heating tolerances in terms of individual physiologies in the lab and abundance in the wild decline with increasing temperature at the same rate. However, at a given acclimation temperature or optimum temperature, tropical individuals and populations have broader heating tolerances than temperate ones. These congruent relationships implicate a tight coupling between physiological and demographic processes underpinning macroecological patterns, and identify vulnerability in both temperate and tropical species.

Nicholas Payne et al. use physiological and population-level abundance data from 823 fish species to examine how heating tolerance scales at both the individual and population level. This study shows that heating tolerance declines in the lab and the wild at the same rate, and for a given temperature, individuals and populations from tropical areas have broader heating tolerances than temperate species.

Occupancy-derived thermal affinities reflect known physiological thermal limits of marine species

Predicting how species will respond to increased environmental temperatures is key to understanding the ecological consequences of global change. The physiological tolerances of a species define its thermal limits, while its thermal affinity is a summary of the environmental temperatures at the localities at which it actually occurs. Experimentally derived thermal limits are known to be related to observed latitudinal ranges in marine species, but accurate range maps from which to derive latitudinal ranges are lacking for many marine species. An alternative approach is to combine widely available data on global occurrences with gridded global temperature datasets to derive measures of species-level "thermal affinity"-that is, measures of the central tendency, variation, and upper and lower bounds of the environmental temperatures at the locations at which a species has been recorded to occur. Here, we test the extent to which such occupancy-derived measures of thermal affinity are related to the known thermal limits of marine species using data on 533 marine species from 24 taxonomic classes and with experimentally derived critical upper temperatures spanning 2-44.5°C. We show that thermal affinity estimates are consistently and positively related to the physiological tolerances of marine species, despite gaps and biases in the source data. Our method allows thermal affinity measures to be rapidly and repeatably estimated for many thousands more marine species, substantially expanding the potential to assess vulnerability of marine communities to warming seas.

Niche width of above- and below-ground organisms varied in predicting biodiversity profiling along a latitudinal gradient

Biodiversity is the foundation of all ecosystems across the planet, and having a better understanding of its global distribution mechanism could be important for biodiversity conservation under global change. A niche width model, combined with metabolic theory, has successfully predicted the increase of α-diversity and decrease of β-diversity in the below-ground microbial community along an altitudinal mountain gradient. In this study, we evaluated this niche width model of above-ground plants (mainly trees and shrubs) and below-ground bulk soil microbial communities (i.e., bacteria and archaea) along a latitudinal gradient of forests in China. The niche widths of both plants and microbes increased with increasing temperature and precipitation, and with proximity to circumneutral pH. However, the α- and β-diversities (observed richness and Bray-Curtis dissimilarity, respectively) could not be accurately predicted by a single niche width model alone, either temperature, precipitation or pH. Considering the interactions among different niche width models, all three niche width models were combined to predict biodiversity at the community level using structural equation modelling. The results showed that the niche width model of circumneutral pH was most important in predicting diversity profiling (i.e., α- and β-diversity) for both plants and microbes, while niche width of precipitation and temperature showed both direct and indirect importance for microbe and plant biodiversity, respectively. Because the current niche width model neglects several scenarios related to taxon and environmental attributes, it still needs to be treated with caution in predicting biodiversity trends.

Fish body sizes change with temperature but not all species shrink with warming

Ectotherms generally shrink under experimental warming, but whether this pattern extends to wild populations is uncertain. We analysed ten million visual survey records, spanning the Australian continent and multiple decades and comprising the most common coastal reef fishes (335 species). We found that temperature indeed drives spatial and temporal changes in fish body size, but not consistently in the negative fashion expected. Around 55% of species were smaller in warmer waters (especially among small-bodied species), while 45% were bigger. The direction of a species' response to temperature through space was generally consistent with its response to temperature increase through time at any given location, suggesting that spatial trends could help forecast fish responses to long-term warming. However, temporal changes were about ten times faster than spatial trends (~4% versus ~40% body size change per 1 °C change through space and time, respectively). The rapid and variable responses of fish size to warming may herald unexpected impacts on ecosystem restructuring, with potentially greater consequences than if all species were shrinking.

Habitat complexity influences selection of thermal environment in a common coral reef fish

Coral reef species, like most tropical species, are sensitive to increasing environmental temperatures, with many species already living close to their thermal maxima. Ocean warming and the increasing frequency and intensity of marine heatwaves are challenging the persistence of reef-associated species through both direct physiological effects of elevated water temperatures and the degradation and loss of habitat structure following disturbance. Understanding the relative importance of habitat degradation and ocean warming in shaping species distributions is critical in predicting the likely biological effects of global warming. Using an automated shuttle box system, we investigated how habitat complexity influences the selection of thermal environments for a common coral reef damselfish, Chromis atripectoralis. In the absence of any habitat (i.e. control), C. atripectoralis avoided temperatures below 22.9 ± 0.8°C and above 31.9 ± 0.6°C, with a preferred temperature (T _pref) of 28.1 ± 0.9°C. When complex habitat was available, individual C. atripectoralis occupied temperatures down to 4.3°C lower (mean ± SE; threshold: 18.6 ± 0.7°C; T _pref: 18.9 ± 1.0°C) than control fish. Conversely, C. atripectoralis in complex habitats occupied similar upper temperatures as control fish (threshold: 31.7 ± 0.4°C; preference: 28.3 ± 0.7°C). Our results show that the availability of complex habitat can influence the selection of thermal environment by a coral reef fish, but only at temperatures below their thermal preference. The limited scope of C. atripectoralis to occupy warmer environments, even when associated with complex habitat, suggests that habitat restoration efforts in areas that continue to warm may not be effective in retaining populations of C. atripectoralis and similar species. This species may have to move to cooler (e.g. deeper or higher latitude) habitats under predicted future warming. The integration of habitat quality and thermal environment into conservation efforts will be essential to conserve of coral reef fish populations under future ocean warming scenarios.