Phenotypic plasticity is aligned with phenological adaptation on both micro- and macroevolutionary timescales

Long-term studies provide unique insights into evolution

From experimental evolution in the laboratory to sustained measurements of natural selection in the wild, long-term studies have revolutionized our understanding of evolution. By directly investigating evolutionary dynamics in real time, these approaches have provided unparallelled insights into the complex interplay between evolutionary process and pattern. These approaches can reveal oscillations, stochastic fluctuations and systematic trends that unfold over extended periods, expose critical time lags between environmental shifts and population responses, and illuminate how subtle effects may accumulate into significant evolutionary patterns. Long-term studies can also reveal otherwise cryptic trends that unfold over extended periods, and offer the potential for serendipity: observing rare events that spur new evolutionary hypotheses and research directions. Despite the challenges of conducting long-term research, exacerbated by modern funding landscapes favouring short-term projects, the contributions of long-term studies to evolutionary biology are indispensable. This is particularly true in our rapidly changing, human-dominated world, where such studies offer a crucial window into how environmental changes and altered species interactions shape evolutionary trajectories. In this Review article, we showcase the groundbreaking discoveries of long-term evolutionary studies, underscoring their crucial role in advancing our understanding of the complex nature of evolution across multiple systems and timescales.

Trait-Fitness Associations via Fecundity and Competition in a Two-Million-Year-Long Fossil Record

AbstractThe evolution of phenotypic traits is usually studied on generational timescales or across species on million-year timescales. We bridge this conceptual gap by using high-density sampling of a species lineage, Microporella agonistes (Bryozoa, Cheilostomatida), over 2 million years of its evolutionary history, to ask whether trait-fitness associations are consistent with evolutionary trait models often applied to phenotypic time series. We use average fecundity and competitive outcome as two different fitness components, where competitive outcome is a proxy for partial survival. Examining three quantitative traits in multivariate analyses, we present evidence that some traits experienced substantial selective pressures, in part controlled by past environments. A complex interplay of resource competition with an altering set of competitors and past temperatures has contributed to the changing patterns of phenotypes within the focal species. A comparison with congeneric species living in the same regional community suggests that size traits are more temporally variable and less constrained than shape traits. Our analyses also show that while controls on phenotypes are complex and varied in time, ecological and evolutionary processes that unfold on shorter timescales are not inconsistent with macroevolutionary patterns observed on longer timescales.

Genetic Variants Underlying Plasticity in Natural Populations of Spadefoot Toads: Environmental Assessment versus Phenotypic Response

Many organisms facultatively produce different phenotypes depending on their environment, yet relatively little is known about the genetic bases of such plasticity in natural populations. In this study, we describe the genetic variation underlying an extreme form of plasticity--resource polyphenism--in Mexican spadefoot toad tadpoles, Spea multiplicata. Depending on their environment, these tadpoles develop into one of two drastically different forms: a carnivore morph or an omnivore morph. We collected both morphs from two ponds that differed in which morph had an adaptive advantage and performed genome-wide association studies of phenotype (carnivore vs. omnivore) and adaptive plasticity (adaptive vs. maladaptive environmental assessment). We identified four quantitative trait loci associated with phenotype and nine with adaptive plasticity, two of which exhibited signatures of minor allele dominance and two of which (one phenotype locus and one adaptive plasticity locus) did not occur as minor allele homozygotes. Investigations into the genetics of plastic traits in natural populations promise to provide novel insights into how such complex, adaptive traits arise and evolve.

Plasticity and not adaptation is the primary source of temperature-mediated variation in flowering phenology in North America

Phenology varies widely over space and time because of its sensitivity to climate. However, whether phenological variation is primarily generated by rapid organismal responses (plasticity) or local adaptation remains unresolved. Here we used 1,038,027 herbarium specimens representing 1,605 species from the continental United States to measure flowering-time sensitivity to temperature over time (Stime) and space (Sspace). By comparing these estimates, we inferred how adaptation and plasticity historically influenced phenology along temperature gradients and how their contributions vary among species with different phenology and native climates and among ecoregions differing in species composition. Parameters Sspace and Stime were positively correlated (r = 0.87), of similar magnitude and more frequently consistent with plasticity than adaptation. Apparent plasticity and adaptation generated earlier flowering in spring, limited responsiveness in late summer and delayed flowering in autumn in response to temperature increases. Nonetheless, ecoregions differed in the relative contributions of adaptation and plasticity, from consistently greater importance of plasticity (for example, southeastern United States plains) to their nearly equal importance throughout the season (for example, Western Sierra Madre Piedmont). Our results support the hypothesis that plasticity is the primary driver of flowering-time variation along temperature gradients, with local adaptation having a widespread but comparatively limited role.

Seasonal variation in dragonfly assemblage colouration suggests a link between thermal melanism and phenology

Phenology, the seasonal timing of life events, is an essential component of diversity patterns. However, the mechanisms involved are complex and understudied. Body colour may be an important factor, because dark-bodied species absorb more solar radiation, which is predicted by the Thermal Melanism Hypothesis to enable them to thermoregulate successfully in cooler temperatures. Here we show that colour lightness of dragonfly assemblages varies in response to seasonal changes in solar radiation, with darker early- and late-season assemblages and lighter mid-season assemblages. This finding suggests a link between colour-based thermoregulation and insect phenology. We also show that the phenological pattern of dragonfly colour lightness advanced over the last decades. We suggest that changing seasonal temperature patterns due to global warming together with the static nature of solar radiation may drive dragonfly flight periods to suboptimal seasonal conditions. Our findings open a research avenue for a more mechanistic understanding of phenology and spatio-phenological impacts of climate warming on insects.

Condition dependence and the paradox of missing plasticity costs

Phenotypic plasticity plays a key role in adaptation to changing environments. However, plasticity is neither perfect nor ubiquitous, implying that fitness costs may limit the evolution of phenotypic plasticity in nature. The measurement of such costs of plasticity has proved elusive; decades of experiments show that fitness costs of plasticity are often weak or nonexistent. Here, we show that this paradox could potentially be explained by condition dependence. We develop two models differing in their assumptions about how condition dependence arises; both models show that variation in condition can readily mask costs of plasticity even when such costs are substantial. This can be shown simply in a model where plasticity itself evolves condition dependence, which would be expected if costly. Yet similar effects emerge from an alternative model where trait expression itself is condition-dependent. In this more complex model, the average condition in each environment and genetic covariance in condition across environments both determine when costs of plasticity can be revealed. Analogous to the paradox of missing trade-offs between life history traits, our models show that variation in condition can mask costs of plasticity even when costs exist, and suggest this conclusion may be robust to the details of how condition affects trait expression. Our models suggest that condition dependence can also account for the often-observed pattern of elevated plasticity costs inferred in stressful environments, the maintenance of genetic variance in plasticity, and provides insight into experimental and biological scenarios ideal for revealing a cost of phenotypic plasticity.

A global meta-analysis reveals higher variation in breeding phenology in urban birds than in their non-urban neighbours

Cities pose a major ecological challenge for wildlife worldwide. Phenotypic variation, which can result from underlying genetic variation or plasticity, is an important metric to understand eco-evolutionary responses to environmental change. Recent work suggests that urban populations might have higher levels of phenotypic variation than non-urban counterparts. This prediction, however, has never been tested across species nor over a broad geographical range. Here, we conducted a meta-analysis of the avian literature to compare urban versus non-urban means and variation in phenology (i.e. lay date) and reproductive effort (i.e. clutch size, number of fledglings). First, we show that urban populations reproduce earlier and have smaller broods than non-urban conspecifics. Second, we show that urban populations have higher phenotypic variation in laying date than non-urban populations. This result arises from differences between populations within breeding seasons, conceivably due to higher landscape heterogeneity in urban habitats. These findings reveal a novel effect of urbanisation on animal life histories with potential implications for species adaptation to urban environments (which will require further investigation). The higher variation in phenology in birds subjected to urban disturbance could result from plastic responses to a heterogeneous environment, or from higher genetic variation in phenology, possibly linked to higher evolutionary potential.