Conservation futures 2050: Developing future scenarios to explore potential socio-economic developments and their impact on biodiversity

Large scale changes in biodiversity and conservation management require long-term goals and planning across multiple sectors in the face of increasing global change. Major trends in land use and management interventions, species additions or losses, and climate are well recognized, but responses are still often short-term and fragmented across agencies and sectors. Scenario-building can be a powerful tool to imagine possible futures, integrating across sectors and disciplines and promoting long-term thinking and planning. As an interdisciplinary team of experts, we developed potential scenarios for a range of future environmental conditions. The scenarios explored: increasing land ownership and stewardship of land by indigenous peoples (Māori); widespread afforestation using native tree species; national-scale eradication of invasive mammalian predators; and increasing frequency of extreme weather events. We explored the implications of these globally-relevant trends at a national scale using Aotearoa New Zealand as our study system. Detailed descriptions of these scenarios were developed by experts using environmental, economic, social science and policy lenses. Across scenarios several common themes were consistently highlighted, including the importance of land use in driving other conservation outcomes. How the value of ecosystem services is recognized and prioritized was also important to a wide range of outcomes. Furthermore, each scenario presented both opportunities and risks to equality, indigenous empowerment and human capital, emphasizing the importance of good policy responses to maximize benefits and minimize unintended harm. These scenarios will be used to stimulate new questions and ideas for biodiversity conservation and management, such as considering the implications of different potential futures for the management of biological invasions. This approach is explicitly designed to be generalisable across different sites or regions and provides a method for considering the implications of potential future changes for a broad range of disciplines or needs.

Gene drive and RNAi technologies: a bio-cultural review of next-generation tools for pest wasp management in New Zealand

There is a global need for novel, next-generation technologies and techniques to manage pest species. We review work on potential step-changing technologies for large landscape (>1000 hectares) pest management of social Vespula wasps. We also review Māori perspectives on these controls to gauge social and cultural acceptability to research, test and use of novel controls. Approaches discussed are the use of gene silencing (RNAi) and gene drives (CRISPR-Cas 9) involving genetic modification, which has potential for pest control but vary in feasibility, cost, benefits and off-target risks. RNAi may be better suited for wasp control in high-value cropping systems due to scaling inefficiencies. Gene drives offer potential for large-scale control but would require legislative and wide social deliberation due to their status as genetic modification. Both RNAi and gene drives will require consultation with tangata whenua. Māori interest groups agreed that exotic wasps must be controlled and expressed aversion to non-targeted traditional control methods. We present a diversity of opinions in parallel with scientific research underscoring the need for continued dialogue with Māori. Novel biotechnological controls must satisfy a broad range of social and cultural criteria, receive regulatory approval, along with being demonstrated as safe, selective, and cost-effective.

Hawaii as a Microcosm: Advancing the Science and Practice of Managing Introduced and Invasive Species

Invasive species are a leading driver of global change, with consequences for biodiversity and society. Because of extraordinary rates of endemism, introduction, and extinction, Hawaii offers a rich platform for exploring the cross-disciplinary challenges of managing invasive species in a dynamic world. We highlight key successes and shortcomings to share lessons learned and inspire innovation and action in and beyond the archipelago. We then discuss thematic challenges and opportunities of broad relevance to invaded ecosystems and human communities. Important research needs and possible actions include eradicating mammals from mainland island sanctuaries, assessing hidden threats from poorly known introduced species, harnessing genomic tools to eradicate disease vectors, structured decision-making to achieve common objectives among diverse stakeholders, and enhancing capacity through nontraditional funding streams and progressive legislation. By shining a spotlight on invasive species at the front lines in Hawaii, we hope to catalyze strategic research and practice to help inform scientists and policymakers.

Increasing predation risk with light reduces speed, exploration and visit duration of invasive ship rats (Rattus rattus)

Exploiting predation cues to deter pests remains an untapped management tool for conservationists. We examined foraging and movement patterns of 20 wild ship rats (Rattus rattus) within a large, outdoor ‘U maze’ that was either illuminated or dark to assess if light (an indirect predation cue) could deter rodents from ecologically vulnerable locations. Light did not alter rats’ foraging behaviour (latency to approach seed tray, visits to seed tray, time per visit to seed tray, total foraging duration, foraging rate) within the experimental resource patch but three of seven movement behaviours were significantly impaired (53% fewer visits to the maze, 70% less exploration within the maze, 40% slower movement within the maze). The total time males spent exposed to illumination also declined by 45 minutes per night, unlike females. Individual visits tended to be longer under illumination, but the latency to visit and the latency to cross through the U maze were unaffected by illumination. Elevating predation risk with illumination may be a useful pest management technique for reducing ship rat activity, particularly in island ecosystems where controlling mammalian predators is paramount to preserving biodiversity.

Conservation demands safe gene drive

Interest in developing gene drive systems to control invasive species is growing, with New Zealand reportedly considering the nascent technology as a way to locally eliminate the mammalian pests that threaten its unique flora and fauna. If gene drives successfully eradicated these invasive populations, many would rejoice, but what are the possible consequences? Here, we explore the risk of accidental spread posed by self-propagating gene drive technologies, highlight new gene drive designs that might achieve better outcomes, and explain why we need open and international discussions concerning a technology that could have global ramifications.

Where to from here? Challenges for restoration and revegetation in a fast-changing world

Ecological restoration provides hope and the opportunity for positive action in the face of ongoing rapid environmental change. Restoration techniques and approaches are improving, and restoration is seen as an important element of conservation management and policy from local to global scales. Motivations for undertaking restoration are numerous, and resources available for this enterprise vary greatly from case to case. Restoration encompasses everything from multinational companies restoring minesites or offsets to comply with environmental regulations to local bushcare groups doing voluntary work in their local patch of bush. The financial and human resources available largely determine the extent and type of restoration activities that are possible. An important task is increasing the resources available for these activities, but it is also important to recognise that resources will continue to fall well short of what is actually required into the foreseeable future. In addition, the need for restoration will only increase with ongoing development and changing environments. In this scenario, how then, should decisions be made about what types of restoration activities are appropriate and possible? How do we ensure that the good intentions behind restoration management and policy translate into good outcomes? Challenges for restoration include not only improving the techniques and approaches but also tackling hard questions about what restoration goals are appropriate and engaging in open discussion of hidden assumptions and values behind decisions.