Rapid microgeographic evolution in response to climate change

Small-scale genetic differentiation in mean flowering time, but not in plasticity, along a geothermal heating gradient

Genetic differentiation in traits is assumed to frequently occur in response to divergent natural selection. For example, developmental traits might respond to differences in climate. However, little is known about when and at which spatial scales environmental differences lead to genetic differentiation, and to what extent there is genetic differentiation also in trait plasticity. Using a crossing design and a greenhouse heating experiment, we investigated genetic differentiation in thermal sensitivity of flowering time in a perennial herb along small-scale gradients in geothermal soil heating in Iceland. We found additive genetic variation in both flowering time and thermal plasticity of flowering time. Genetic differentiation in the median flowering date of individuals showed a counter-gradient pattern; flowering being earlier at higher greenhouse temperatures, while at a given temperature individuals originating from warmer soils flowered later than individuals from colder soils. We found no corresponding pattern for plasticity, suggesting that genetic differentiation in phenology in response to soil heating has occurred through changes in trait means rather than in plasticity. Findings such as these identifying genetic trait differentiation along an environmental gradient are key to understand how environmental variation can drive the process of local adaptation, and to predict responses to future environmental changes.

Collective effects of rising average temperatures and heat events on oviparous embryos

Survival of the immobile embryo in response to rising temperature is important to determine a species' vulnerability to climate change. However, the collective effects of 2 key thermal characteristics associated with climate change (i.e., rising average temperature and acute heat events) on embryonic survival remain largely unexplored. We used empirical measurements and niche modeling to investigate how chronic and acute heat stress independently and collectively influence the embryonic survival of lizards across latitudes. We collected and bred lizards from 5 latitudes and incubated their eggs across a range of temperatures to quantify population-specific responses to chronic and acute heat stress. Using an embryonic development model parameterized with measured embryonic heat tolerances, we further identified a collective impact of embryonic chronic and acute heat tolerances on embryonic survival. We also incorporated embryonic chronic and acute heat tolerance in hybrid species distribution models to determine species' range shifts under climate change. Embryos' tolerance of chronic heat (T-chronic) remained consistent across latitudes, whereas their tolerance of acute heat (T-acute) was higher at high latitudes than at low latitudes. Tolerance of acute heat exerted a more pronounced influence than tolerance of chronic heat. In species distribution models, climate change led to the most significant habitat loss for each population and species in its low-latitude distribution. Consequently, habitat for populations across all latitudes will shift toward high latitudes. Our study also highlights the importance of considering embryonic survival under chronic and acute heat stresses to predict species' vulnerability to climate change.

Population origin and heritable effects mediate road salt toxicity and thermal stress in an amphibian

Human impacts on wild populations are numerous and extensive, degrading habitats and causing population declines across taxa. Though these impacts are often studied individually, wild populations typically face suites of stressors acting concomitantly, compromising the fitness of individuals and populations in ways poorly understood and not easily predicted by the effects of any single stressor. Developing understanding of the effects of multiple stressors and their potential interactions remains a critical challenge in environmental biology. Here, we focus on assessing the impacts of two prominent stressors associated with anthropogenic activities that affect many organisms across the planet - elevated salinity (e.g., from road de-icing salt) and temperature (e.g. from climate change). We examined a suite of physiological traits and components of fitness across populations of wood frogs originating from ponds that differ in their proximity to roads and thus their legacy of exposure to pollution from road salt. When experimentally exposed to road salt, wood frogs showed reduced survival (especially those from ponds adjacent to roads), divergent developmental rates, and reduced longevity. Family-level effects mediated these outcomes, but high salinity generally eroded family-level variance. When combined, exposure to both temperature and salt resulted in very low survival, and this effect was strongest in roadside populations. Taken together, these results suggest that temperature is an important stressor capable of exacerbating impacts from a prominent contaminant confronting many freshwater organisms in salinized habitats. More broadly, it appears likely that toxicity might often be underestimated in the absence of multi-stressor approaches.

A novel analytical framework to quantify co-gradient and countergradient variation

Spatial covariance between genotypic and environmental influences on phenotypes (Cov_GE ) can result in the nonrandom distribution of genotypes across environmental gradients and is a potentially important factor driving local adaptation. However, a framework to quantify the magnitude and significance of Cov_GE has been lacking. We develop a novel quantitative/analytical approach to estimate and test the significance of Cov_GE from reciprocal transplant or common garden experiments, which we validate using simulated data. We demonstrate how power to detect Cov_GE changes over a range of experimental designs. We confirm an inverse relationship between gene-by-environment interactions (GxE) and Cov_GE , as predicted by first principles, but show how phenotypes can be influenced by both. The metric provides a way to measure how phenotypic plasticity covaries with genetic differentiation and highlights the importance of understanding the dual influences of Cov_GE and GxE on phenotypes in studies of local adaptation and species' responses to environmental change.

Rapid microgeographic evolution in response to climate change

Environmental change is predicted to accelerate into the future and will exert strong selection pressure on biota. Although many species may be fated to extinction, others may survive through their capacity to evolve rapidly at highly localized (i.e., microgeographic) scales. Yet, even as new examples have been discovered, the limits to such evolutionary responses have not often been evaluated. One of the first examples of microgeographic variation involved pond populations of wood frogs (Rana sylvatica). Although separated by just tens to hundreds of meters, these populations exhibited countergradient variation in intrinsic embryonic development rates when reared in a common garden. We repeated this experiment 17 years (approximately six to nine generations) later and found that microgeographic variation persists in contemporary populations. Furthermore, we found that contemporary embryos have evolved to develop 14-19% faster than those in 2001. Structural equation models indicate that the predominant cause for this response is likely due to changes in climate over the intervening 17 years. Despite potential for rapid and fine-scale evolution, demographic declines in populations experiencing the greatest changes in climate and habitat imply a limit to the species' ability to mitigate extreme environmental change.