Mechanisms underpinning climatic impacts on natural populations: altered species interactions are more important than direct effects

Warming and shifts in litter quality drive multiple responses in freshwater detritivore communities

Aquatic detritivores are highly sensitive to changes in temperature and leaf litter quality caused by increases in atmospheric CO2. While impacts on detritivores are evident at the organismal and population level, the mechanisms shaping ecological communities remain unclear. Here, we conducted field and laboratory experiments to examine the interactive effects of changes in leaf litter quality, due to increasing atmospheric CO2, and warming, on detritivore survival (at both organismal and community levels) and detritus consumption rates. Detritivore community consisted of the collector-gathering Polypedilum (Chironomidae), the scraper and facultative filtering-collector Atalophlebiinae (Leptophlebiidae), and Calamoceratidae (Trichoptera), a typical shredder. Our findings reveal intricate responses across taxonomic levels. At the organismal level, poor-quality leaf litter decreased survivorship of Polypedilum and Atalophlebiinae. We observed taxon-specific responses to warming, with varying effects on growth and consumption rates. Notably, species interactions (competition, facilitation) might have mediated detritivore responses to climate stressors, influencing community dynamics. While poor-quality leaf litter and warming independently affected detritivore larvae abundance of Atalophebiinae and Calamoceratidae, their combined effects altered detritus consumption and emergence of adults of Atalophlebiinae. Furthermore, warming influenced species abundances differently, likely exacerbating intraspecific competition in some taxa while accelerating development in others. Our study underscores the importance of considering complex ecological interactions in predicting the impact of climate change on freshwater ecosystem functioning. Understanding these emergent properties contributes to a better understanding of how detritivore communities may respond to future environmental conditions, providing valuable insights for ecosystem management and conservation efforts.

Effects of multiple stressors on freshwater food webs: Evidence from a mesocosm experiment

Natural and anthropogenic pressures exert influence on ecosystem structure and function by affecting the physiology and behavior of organisms, as well as the trophic interactions within assemblages. Therefore, understanding how multiple stressors affect aquatic ecosystems can improve our ability to manage and protect these ecosystems and contribute to understanding fundamental ecological principles. Here, we conducted a mesocosm experiment to ascertain the individual and combined effects of multiple stressors on trophic interactions within species in freshwater ecosystems. Furthermore, we investigated how species respond to such changes by adapting their food resources. To mimic a realistic food web, we selected fish and shrimp as top predators, gastropods, zooplankton and zoobenthos as intermediate consumers, with producers (macrophytes, periphyton and phytoplankton) and detritus as basal resources. Twelve different treatments included a control, nutrient loading only, herbicide exposure only, and a combination of nutrient loading and herbicide exposure, each replicated under ambient temperature, constant warming and multiple heat waves to simulate environmental stressors. Our results demonstrated that antagonistic interactions between environmental stressors were widespread in trophic interactions, with a more pronounced and less intense impact observed for the high trophic level species. The responses of freshwater communities to environmental stressors are complex, involving direct effects on individual species as well as indirect effects through species interactions. Moreover, our results confirmed that the combinations of stressors, but not individual stressors, led to a shift to herbivory in top predators, indicating that multiple stressors can be more detrimental to organisms than individual stressors alone. These findings elucidate how changes in the resource utilization of species induced by environmental stressors can potentially influence species interactions and the structural dynamics of food webs in freshwater ecosystems.

Herbivore effects increase with latitude across the extent of a foundational seagrass

Climate change is altering the functioning of foundational ecosystems. While the direct effects of warming are expected to influence individual species, the indirect effects of warming on species interactions remain poorly understood. In marine systems, as tropical herbivores undergo poleward range expansion, they may change food web structure and alter the functioning of key habitats. While this process ('tropicalization') has been documented within declining kelp forests, we have a limited understanding of how this process might unfold across other systems. Here we use a network of sites spanning 23° of latitude to explore the effects of increased herbivory (simulated via leaf clipping) on the structure of a foundational marine plant (turtlegrass). By working across its geographic range, we also show how gradients in light, temperature and nutrients modified plant responses. We found that turtlegrass near its northern boundary was increasingly affected (reduced productivity) by herbivory and that this response was driven by latitudinal gradients in light (low insolation at high latitudes). By contrast, low-latitude meadows tolerated herbivory due to high insolation which enhanced plant carbohydrates. We show that as herbivores undergo range expansion, turtlegrass meadows at their northern limit display reduced resilience and may be under threat of ecological collapse.

Bioaerosols in the coastal region of Qingdao: Community diversity, impact factors and synergistic effect

Atmospheric bioaerosols are influenced by multiple factors, including physical, chemical, and biotic interactions, and pose a significant threat to the public health and the environment. The nonnegligible truth however is that the primary driver of the changes in bioaerosol community diversity remains unknown. In this study, putative biological association (PBA) was obtained by constructing an ecological network. The relationship between meteorological conditions, atmospheric pollutants, water-soluble inorganic ions, PBA and bioaerosol community diversity was analyzed using random forest regression (RFR)-An ensemble learning algorithm based on a decision tree that performs regression tasks by constructing multiple decision trees and integrating the predicted results, and the contribution of different rich species to PBA was predicted. The species richness, evenness and diversity varied significantly in different seasons, with the highest in summer, followed by autumn and spring, and was lowest in winter. The RFR suggested that the explanation rate of alpha diversity increased significantly from 73.74 % to 85.21 % after accounting for the response of the PBA to diversity. The PBA, temperature, air pollution, and marine source air masses were the most crucial factors driving community diversity. PBA, particularly putative positive association (PPA), had the highest significance in diversity. We found that under changing external conditions, abundant taxa tend to cooperate to resist external pressure, thereby promoting PPA. In contrast, rare taxa were more responsive to the putative negative association because of their sensitivity to environmental changes. The results of this research provided scientific advance in the understanding of the dynamic and temporal changes in bioaerosols, as well as support for the prevention and control of microbial contamination of the atmosphere.

Predict the effects of climate change by studying the effects of climate change

Booth (2024) recently criticized our review on climate change and global species extinctions because we mentioned studies of introduced species but not forestry trials (deliberately introduced trees). However, as noted by Booth (2024), a relevant database is lacking for these trials, thus preventing their inclusion. More broadly, we suggest that researchers interested in extinction and other impacts of climate change should focus directly on studying the recent effects of climate change, rather than on introduced species, forestry trials, or other more indirect lines of evidence.

Season-specific impacts of climate change on canopy-forming seaweed communities

Understory assemblages associated with canopy-forming species such as trees, kelps, and rockweeds should respond strongly to climate stressors due to strong canopy-understory interactions. Climate change can directly and indirectly modify these assemblages, particularly during more stressful seasons and climate scenarios. However, fully understanding the seasonal impacts of different climate conditions on canopy-reliant assemblages is difficult due to a continued emphasis on studying single-species responses to a single future climate scenario during a single season. To examine these emergent effects, we used mesocosm experiments to expose seaweed assemblages associated with the canopy-forming golden rockweed, Silvetia compressa, to elevated temperature and pCO2 conditions reflecting two projected greenhouse emission scenarios (RCP 2.6 [low] & RCP 4.5 [moderate]). Assemblages were grown in the presence and absence of Silvetia, and in two seasons. Relative to ambient conditions, predicted climate scenarios generally suppressed Silvetia biomass and photosynthetic efficiency. However, these effects varied seasonally-both future scenarios reduced Silvetia biomass in summer, but only the moderate scenario did so in winter. These reductions shifted the assemblage, with more extreme shifts occurring in summer. Contrarily, future scenarios did not shift assemblages within Silvetia Absent treatments, suggesting that climate primarily affected assemblages indirectly through changes in Silvetia. Mesocosm experiments were coupled with a field Silvetia removal experiment to simulate the effects of climate-mediated Silvetia loss on natural assemblages. Consistent with the mesocosm experiment, Silvetia loss resulted in season-specific assemblage shifts, with weaker effects observed in winter. Together, our study supports the hypotheses that climate-mediated changes to canopy-forming species can indirectly affect the associated assemblage, and that these effects vary seasonally. Such seasonality is important to consider as it may provide periods of recovery when conditions are less stressful, especially if we can reduce the severity of future climate scenarios.

Avian responses to climate extremes: insights into abundance curves and species sensitivity using the UK Breeding Bird Survey

Climate change remains one of the most urgent challenges for biodiversity conservation. Recent studies have highlighted that climate extremes (CLEXs) can lead to widespread and negative effects across all taxa and ecological levels, but most of these studies are based on short-term periods and small spatial scales and lack a multi-species approach. Here, using generalised additive models (GAMs) and the UK Breeding Bird Survey (BBS), we described response curves for the abundance of 100 resident bird species over large spatial and temporal scales and identified the species showing a greater sensitivity to CLEXs. We used five climatic indices computed at 1-km spatial resolution as proxies of CLEXs during the winter or breeding season and considered both 1- and 2-year lagged effects. The results demonstrated widespread and significant effects of CLEXs on bird abundances at both time lags and in both seasons. Winter frost days (FD0), summer days (SU25) during the breeding season and simple precipitation intensity index (SDII) during the breeding season mainly showed negative effects. Daily temperature range (DTR) in both winter and breeding season and dry days (DD) during the breeding season led to diversified responses across the species, with a prevalence of positive effects. A large proportion of species showed a high sensitivity to CLEXs, highlighting that these species may deserve attention in future studies aimed at biodiversity conservation. We demonstrated that CLEXs can represent a significant driver affecting population abundances over large spatial and temporal scales, emphasising the need for understanding mechanistic processes at the basis of the observed effects.

How many species will Earth lose to climate change?

Climate change may be an important threat to global biodiversity, potentially leading to the extinction of numerous species. But how many? There have been various attempts to answer this question, sometimes yielding strikingly different estimates. Here, we review these estimates, assess their disagreements and methodology, and explore how we might reach better estimates. Large-scale studies have estimated the extinction of ~1% of sampled species up to ~70%, even when using the same approach (species distribution models; SDMs). Nevertheless, worst-case estimates often converge near 20%-30% species loss, and many differences shrink when using similar assumptions. We perform a new review of recent SDM studies, which show ~17% loss of species to climate change under worst-case scenarios. However, this review shows that many SDM studies are biased by excluding the most vulnerable species (those known from few localities), which may lead to underestimating global species loss. Conversely, our analyses of recent climate change responses show that a fundamental assumption of SDM studies, that species' climatic niches do not change over time, may be frequently violated. For example, we find mean rates of positive thermal niche change across species of ~0.02°C/year. Yet, these rates may still be slower than projected climate change by ~3-4 fold. Finally, we explore how global extinction levels can be estimated by combining group-specific estimates of species loss with recent group-specific projections of global species richness (including cryptic insect species). These preliminary estimates tentatively forecast climate-related extinction of 14%-32% of macroscopic species in the next ~50 years, potentially including 3-6 million (or more) animal and plant species, even under intermediate climate change scenarios.

How artificial light at night may rewire ecological networks: concepts and models

Artificial light at night (ALAN) is eroding natural light cycles and thereby changing species distributions and activity patterns. Yet little is known about how ecological interaction networks respond to this global change driver. Here, we assess the scientific basis of the current understanding of community-wide ALAN impacts. Based on current knowledge, we conceptualize and review four major pathways by which ALAN may affect ecological interaction networks by (i) impacting primary production, (ii) acting as an environmental filter affecting species survival, (iii) driving the movement and distribution of species, and (iv) changing functional roles and niches by affecting activity patterns. Using an allometric-trophic network model, we then test how a shift in temporal activity patterns for diurnal, nocturnal and crepuscular species impacts food web stability. The results indicate that diel niche shifts can severely impact community persistence by altering the temporal overlap between species, which leads to changes in interaction strengths and rewiring of networks. ALAN can thereby lead to biodiversity loss through the homogenization of temporal niches. This integrative framework aims to advance a predictive understanding of community-level and ecological-network consequences of ALAN and their cascading effects on ecosystem functioning. This article is part of the theme issue 'Light pollution in complex ecological systems'.

Interspecific behavioural interference and range dynamics: current insights and future directions

Novel biotic interactions in shifting communities play a key role in determining the ability of species' ranges to track suitable habitat. To date, the impact of biotic interactions on range dynamics have predominantly been studied in the context of interactions between different trophic levels or, to a lesser extent, exploitative competition between species of the same trophic level. Yet, both theory and a growing number of empirical studies show that interspecific behavioural interference, such as interspecific territorial and mating interactions, can slow down range expansions, preclude coexistence, or drive local extinction, even in the absence of resource competition. We conducted a systematic review of the current empirical research into the consequences of interspecific behavioural interference on range dynamics. Our findings demonstrate there is abundant evidence that behavioural interference by one species can impact the spatial distribution of another. Furthermore, we identify several gaps where more empirical work is needed to test predictions from theory robustly. Finally, we outline several avenues for future research, providing suggestions for how interspecific behavioural interference could be incorporated into existing scientific frameworks for understanding how biotic interactions influence range expansions, such as species distribution models, to build a stronger understanding of the potential consequences of behavioural interference on the outcome of future range dynamics.

Warming indirectly simplifies food webs through effects on apex predators

Warming alters ecosystems through direct physiological effects on organisms and indirect effects via biotic interactions, but their relative impacts in the wild are unknown due to the difficulty in warming natural environments. Here we bridge this gap by embedding manipulative field experiments within a natural stream temperature gradient to test whether warming and apex fish predators have interactive effects on freshwater ecosystems. Fish exerted cascading effects on algal production and microbial decomposition via both green and brown pathways in the food web, but only under warming. Neither temperature nor the presence of fish altered food web structure alone, but connectance and mean trophic level declined as consumer species were lost when both drivers acted together. A mechanistic model indicates that this temperature-induced trophic cascade is determined primarily by altered interactions, which cautions against extrapolating the impacts of warming from reductionist approaches that do not consider the wider food web.

Following the feeder: A global synthesis of disturbance-based foraging associations of birds

Species interactions link animal behaviour to community structure and macroecological patterns of biodiversity. One common type of trophic species interaction is disturbance foraging-the act of obtaining food at a disturbance created by another organism. Disturbance foraging is widespread across the animal kingdom, especially among birds, yet previous research has been largely anecdotal and we still lack a synthetic understanding of how this behaviour varies geographically, phylogenetically and ecologically. To address these gaps, we conducted a comprehensive literature review to test focal hypotheses about disturbance foraging behaviour in birds. We found that avian disturbance foraging was geographically ubiquitous, occurring in both aquatic and terrestrial habitats across six continents and four oceans. Consistent with predictions based on established species diversity gradients in different habitat types, the majority of terrestrial observations occurred at tropical latitudes, whereas aquatic observations took place most frequently in temperate marine waters. Although disturbance foraging was widespread across the avian phylogeny, contrary to our prediction, the behaviour was also conserved phylogenetically (Pagel's λ = 0.7) and clustered within suboscine landbirds in terrestrial environments and seabirds in aquatic environments. Similarly, although disturbers were taxonomically diverse as we predicted, interactions were unexpectedly dominated by swarm-raiding ants in terrestrial environments and cetaceans in aquatic environments. Diet and body mass were also important predictors of disturbance foraging associations: Responders followed disturbers with similar diets and larger body sizes. Overall, our hypothesis-testing framework provides insight into the importance of geography, phylogeny and ecology as predictors of disturbance foraging behaviour. We anticipate that this comprehensive assessment of disturbance foraging will serve to generate additional hypotheses and spark future research and management considerations about this fascinating but poorly studied suite of species interactions, especially as biotic interactions face unprecedented risks in our rapidly changing world.

Predatory walls may impair climate warming-associated population expansion

Climate change has a profound impact on species distribution and abundance globally, as well as local diversity, which affects ecosystem functioning. In particular, changes in population distribution and abundance may lead to changes in trophic interactions. Although species can often shift their spatial distribution when suitable habitats are available, it has been suggested that predator presence can be a constraint on climate-related distribution shifts. We test this using two well-studied and data-rich marine environments. Focusing on a pair of sympatric fishes, Atlantic haddock Melanogrammus aeglefinus and cod Gadus morhua, we study the effect of the presence and abundance of the latter on the former distribution. We found that the distribution of cod and increased abundance may limit the expansion of haddock to new areas and could consequently buffer ecosystem changes due to climate change. Though marine species may track the rate and direction of climate shifts, our results demonstrate that the presence of predators may limit their expansion to thermally suitable habitats. By integrating climatic and ecological data at scales that can resolve predator-prey relationships, this analysis demonstrates the usefulness of considering trophic interactions to gain a more comprehensive understanding and to mitigate the effects of climate change on species distributions.

A multidimensional framework to quantify the effects of urbanization on avian breeding fitness

Urbanization has dramatically altered Earth's landscapes and changed a multitude of environmental factors. This has resulted in intense land-use change, and adverse consequences such as the urban heat island effect (UHI), noise pollution, and artificial light at night (ALAN). However, there is a lack of research on the combined effects of these environmental factors on life-history traits and fitness, and on how these interactions shape food resources and drive patterns of species persistence. Here, we systematically reviewed the literature and created a comprehensive framework of the mechanistic pathways by which urbanization affects fitness and thus favors certain species. We found that urbanization-induced changes in urban vegetation, habitat quality, spring temperature, resource availability, acoustic environment, nighttime light, and species behaviors (e.g., laying, foraging, and communicating) influence breeding choices, optimal time windows that reduce phenological mismatch, and breeding success. Insectivorous and omnivorous species that are especially sensitive to temperature often experience advanced laying behaviors and smaller clutch sizes in urban areas. By contrast, some granivorous and omnivorous species experience little difference in clutch size and number of fledglings because urban areas make it easier to access anthropogenic food resources and to avoid predation. Furthermore, the interactive effect of land-use change and UHI on species could be synergistic in locations where habitat loss and fragmentation are greatest and when extreme-hot weather events take place in urban areas. However, in some instances, UHI may mitigate the impact of land-use changes at local scales and provide suitable breeding conditions by shifting the environment to be more favorable for species' thermal limits and by extending the time window in which food resources are available in urban areas. As a result, we determined five broad directions for further research to highlight that urbanization provides a great opportunity to study environmental filtering processes and population dynamics.

Incorporating species-specific morphology improves model predictions of thermal and hydric stress in the sand fiddler crab, Leptuca pugilator

Understanding where and why organisms are experiencing thermal and hydric stress is critical for predicting species' responses to climate change. Biophysical models that explicitly link organismal functional traits like morphology, physiology, and behavior to environmental conditions can provide valuable insight into determinants of thermal and hydric stress. Here we use a combination of direct measurements, 3D modeling, and computational fluid dynamics to develop a detailed biophysical model of the sand fiddler crab, Leptuca pugilator. We compare the detailed model's performance to a model using a simpler ellipsoidal approximation of a crab. The detailed model predicted crab body temperatures within 1 °C of observed in both laboratory and field settings; the ellipsoidal approximation model predicted body temperatures within 2 °C of observed body temperatures. Model predictions are meaningfully improved through efforts to incorporate species-specific morphological properties rather than relying on simple geometric approximations. Experimental evaporative water loss (EWL) measurements indicate that L. pugilator can modify its permeability to EWL as a function of vapor density gradients, providing novel insight into physiological thermoregulation in the species. Body temperature and EWL predictions made over the course of a year at a single site demonstrate how such biophysical models can be used to explore mechanistic drivers and spatiotemporal patterns of thermal and hydric stress, providing insight into current and future distributions in the face of climate change.

Data integration reveals dynamic and systematic patterns of breeding habitat use by a threatened shorebird

Incorporating species distributions into conservation planning has traditionally involved long-term representations of habitat use where temporal variation is averaged to reveal habitats that are most suitable across time. Advances in remote sensing and analytical tools have allowed for the integration of dynamic processes into species distribution modeling. Our objective was to develop a spatiotemporal model of breeding habitat use for a federally threatened shorebird (piping plover, Charadrius melodus). Piping plovers are an ideal candidate species for dynamic habitat models because they depend on habitat created and maintained by variable hydrological processes and disturbance. We integrated a 20-year (2000-2019) nesting dataset with volunteer-collected sightings (eBird) using point process modeling. Our analysis incorporated spatiotemporal autocorrelation, differential observation processes within data streams, and dynamic environmental covariates. We evaluated the transferability of this model in space and time and the contribution of the eBird dataset. eBird data provided more complete spatial coverage in our study system than nest monitoring data. Patterns of observed breeding density depended on both dynamic (e.g., surface water levels) and long-term (e.g., proximity to permanent wetland basins) environmental processes. Our study provides a framework for quantifying dynamic spatiotemporal patterns of breeding density. This assessment can be iteratively updated with additional data to improve conservation and management efforts, because reducing temporal variability to average patterns of use may cause a loss in precision for such actions.

Niche width predicts extinction from climate change and vulnerability of tropical species

Climate change may be a major threat to global biodiversity, especially to tropical species. Yet, why tropical species are more vulnerable to climate change remains unclear. Tropical species are thought to have narrower physiological tolerances to temperature, and they have already experienced a higher estimated frequency of climate-related local extinctions. These two patterns suggest that tropical species are more vulnerable to climate change because they have narrower thermal niche widths. However, no studies have tested whether species with narrower climatic niche widths for temperature have experienced more local extinctions, and if these narrower niche widths can explain the higher frequency of tropical local extinctions. Here, we test these ideas using resurvey data from 538 plant and animal species from 10 studies. We found that mean niche widths among species and the extent of climate change (increase in maximum annual temperatures) together explained most variation (>75%) in the frequency of local extinction among studies. Surprisingly, neither latitude nor occurrence in the tropics alone significantly predicted local extinction among studies, but latitude and niche widths were strongly inversely related. Niche width also significantly predicted local extinction among species, as well as among and (sometimes) within studies. Overall, niche width may offer a relatively simple and accessible predictor of the vulnerability of populations to climate change. Intriguingly, niche width has the best predictive power to explain extinction from global warming when it incorporates coldest yearly temperatures.

Differences in fish herbivory among tropical and temperate seaweeds and annual patterns in kelp consumption influence the tropicalisation of temperate reefs

Climate change is leading to novel species interactions and profoundly altering ecosystems. In marine systems, tropical and subtropical species are increasing in higher latitudes. This has been linked to the deforestation of temperate coastlines, as direct effects of ocean warming combine with increased herbivory from tropical and sub-tropical fishes and lead to the decline of canopy-forming kelp. Here, we tested the hypothesis that this deforestation may be facilitated by greater palatability of temperate kelp and other canopy seaweeds compared to tropical taxa. We used multiple-choice filmed feeding field experiments and chemical analyses to measure the palatability of temperate and tropical seaweeds from Tosa Bay (southeastern Japan) and we used single-species feeding assays to measure changes in consumption of the kelp Ecklonia cava throughout the year. We found no evidence that temperate seaweeds are more palatable to herbivorous fish. In the multiple-choice assays, consumption was concentrated on both tropical and temperate Sargassum species, which are ephemeral and peak in abundance in the spring/early summer. Consumption of the kelp Ecklonia cava peaked during the autumn, when Sargassum species are absent. The highest levels of kelp herbivory coincide with the reproductive season for E. cava and may contribute to the long-term decline of these kelp forests in southern Japan.

Empirical evidence of nonlinearity in bottom up effect in a marine predator-prey system

The strength of species interactions may have profound effects on population dynamics. Empirical estimates of interaction strength are often based on the assumption that the interaction strengths are constant. Barents Sea (BS) cod and capelin are two fish populations for which such an interaction has been acknowledged and used, under the assumption of constant interaction strength, when studying their population dynamics. However, species interactions can often be nonlinear in marine ecosystems and might profoundly change our understanding of food chains. Analysing long-term time series data comprising a survey over 37 years in the Arcto-boreal BS, using a state-space modelling framework, we demonstrate that the effect of capelin on cod is not linear but shifts depending on capelin abundance: while capelin is beneficial for cod populations at high abundance; below the threshold, it becomes less important for cod. Our analysis therefore shows the importance of investigating nonlinearity in species interactions and may contribute to an improved understanding on species assemblages.

Changes in ecological conditions may influence intraguild competition: inferring interaction patterns of snow leopard with co-predators

Background

Large-scale changes in habitat conditions due to human modifications and climate change require management practices to consider how species communities can alter amidst these changes. Understanding species interactions across the gradient of space, anthropogenic pressure, and season provide the opportunity to anticipate possible dynamics in the changing scenarios. We studied the interspecific interactions of carnivore species in a high-altitude ecosystem over seasonal (summer and winter) and resource gradients (livestock grazing) to assess the impact of changing abiotic and biotic settings on coexistence.

Methods

The study was conducted in the Upper Bhagirathi basin, Western Himalaya, India. We analyzed around 4 years of camera trap monitoring data to understand seasonal spatial and temporal interactions of the snow leopard with common leopard and woolly wolf were assessed in the greater and trans-Himalayan habitats, respectively. We used two species occupancy models to assess spatial interactions, and circadian activity patterns were used to assess seasonal temporal overlap amongst carnivores. In addition, we examined scats to understand the commonalities in prey selection.

Results

The result showed that although snow leopard and wolves depend on the same limited prey species and show high temporal overlap, habitat heterogeneity and differential habitat use facilitate co-occurrence between these two predators. Snow leopard and common leopard were spatially independent in the summer. Conversely, the common leopard negatively influences the space use of snow leopard in the winter. Limited prey resources (lack of livestock), restricted space (due to snow cover), and similar activity patterns in winter might result in strong competition, causing these species to avoid each other on a spatial scale. The study showed that in addition to species traits and size, ecological settings also play a significant role in deciding the intensity of competition between large carnivores. Climate change and habitat shifts are predicted to increase the spatial overlap between snow leopard and co-predators in the future. In such scenarios, wolves and snow leopards may coexist in a topographically diverse environment, provided sufficient prey are available. However, shifts in tree line might lead to severe competition between common leopards and snow leopards, which could be detrimental to the latter. Further monitoring of resource use across abiotic and biotic environments may improve our understanding of how changing ecological conditions can affect resource partitioning between snow leopards and predators.

Saltwater intrusion indirectly intensifies Phragmites australis invasion via alteration of soil microbes

Although global change clearly influences species invasion, the exact mechanisms by which global change either intensifies or limits invasive spread remain elusive. Global change can affect invasion directly by altering abiotic conditions, as well as indirectly by altering the abundance and composition of interacting species. Here we examine the relative impacts of direct effects of saltwater intrusion and indirect effects via microbial interactions on the expansion of a model invasive plant species, Phragmites australis, in freshwater marshes of coastal Louisiana. Using a mesocosm experiment, we found that overall salinity strongly increases invasion, but the direction and magnitude of direct and indirect effects were context dependent. Indirect effects of salinity, via alterations in soil microbial composition, increased invasive performance when grown in monoculture and decreased native performance in native-only communities. However, when P. australis and natives were grown together, microbial indirect effects were not important; rather the salinity treatment increased P. australis invasion through reduction of native plant growth. Results suggest that salinity-induced alteration of soil microbes will increase susceptibility of native communities to invasion and promote P. australis monoculture expansion in later stages of invasion; whereas non-microbial effects of salinity are more important in early stages of invasion when P. australis is competing with native species. More broadly, these results underscore the importance of considering microbially-mediated indirect effects of global change in investigating the long-term outcomes of plant species interactions.

Floral nectar microbial communities exhibit seasonal shifts associated with extreme heat: Potential implications for climate change and plant-pollinator interactions

Floral nectar contains vital nutrients for pollinators, including sugars, amino acids, proteins, and secondary compounds. As pollinators forage, they inoculate nectar with bacteria and fungi. These microbes can colonize nectaries and alter nectar properties, including volume and chemistry. Abiotic factors, such as temperature, can influence microbial community structure and nectar traits. Considering current climate change conditions, studying the effects of increased temperature on ecosystem processes like pollination is ever more important. In a manipulative field experiment, we used a passive-heating technique to increase the ambient temperature of a California native plant, Penstemon heterophyllus, to test the hypothesis that temperatures elevated an average of 0.5°C will affect nectar properties and nectar-inhabiting microbial communities. We found that passive-heat treatment did not affect nectar properties or microbial communities. Penstemon heterophyllus fruit set also was not affected by passive-heat treatments, and neither was capsule mass, however plants subjected to heat treatments produced significantly more seeds than control. Although we conducted pollinator surveys, no pollinators were recorded for the duration of our experiment. A naturally occurring extreme temperature event did, however, have large effects on nectar sugars and nectar-inhabiting microbial communities. The initially dominant Lactobacillus sp. was replaced by Sediminibacterium, while Mesorhizobium, and Acinetobacter persisted suggesting that extreme temperatures can interrupt nectar microbiome community assembly. Our study indicates that the quality and attractiveness of nectar under climate change conditions could have implications on plant-pollinator interactions.

Projected climate change impacts on the phylogenetic diversity of the world's terrestrial birds: more than species numbers

Ongoing climate change is a major threat to biodiversity. As abiotic tolerances and dispersal abilities vary, species-specific responses have the potential to further amplify or ameliorate the ensuing impacts on species assemblages. Here, we investigate the effects of climate change on species distributions across non-marine birds, quantifying its projected impact on species richness (SR) as well as on different aspects of phylogenetic diversity globally. Going beyond previous work, we disentangle the potential impacts of species gains versus losses on assemblage-level phylogenetic diversity under climate change and compare the projected impacts to randomized assemblage changes. We show that beyond its effects on SR, climate change could have profound impacts on assemblage-level phylogenetic diversity and composition, which differ significantly from random changes and among regions. Though marked species losses are most frequent in tropical and subtropical areas in our projections, phylogenetic restructuring of species communities is likely to occur all across the globe. Furthermore, our results indicate that the most severe changes to the phylogenetic diversity of local assemblages are likely to be caused by species range shifts and local species gains rather than range reductions and extinctions. Our findings highlight the importance of considering diverse measures in climate impact assessments.

Linking animal behavior to ecosystem change in disturbed environments

Environmental disturbances often cause individuals to change their behavior. The behavioral responses can induce a chain of reactions through the network of species interactions, via consumptive and trait mediated connections. Given that species interactions define ecosystem structure and functioning, changes to these interactions often have ecological repercussions. Here, we explore the transmission of behavioral responses through the network of species interactions, and how the responses influence ecological conditions. We describe the underlying mechanisms and the ultimate impact that the behavioral responses can have on ecosystem structure and functioning, including biodiversity and ecosystems stability and services. We explain why behavioral responses of some species have a larger impact than that of others on ecosystems, and why research should focus on these species and their interactions. With the work, we synthesize existing theory and empirical evidence to provide a conceptual framework that links behavior responses to altered species interactions, community dynamics, and ecosystem processes. Considering that species interactions link biodiversity to ecosystem functioning, a deeper understanding of behavioral responses and their causes and consequences can improve our knowledge of the mechanisms and pathways through which human activities alter ecosystems. This knowledge can improve our ability to predict the effects of ongoing disturbances on communities and ecosystems and decide on the interventions needed to mitigate negative effects.

Warming and soil water availability affect plant-flower visitor interactions for Stylosanthes capitata, a tropical forage legume

The reproductive success of a zoophilous plant species depends on biological interaction with pollinators, which involves both the provision and exploitation of flower resources. Currently, there is little information about how future climate change scenarios will impact interactions between plants and their flower visitors in the tropics. This study analyzes the effects of warming and two soil water conditions on interactions between the tropical forage legume species Stylosanthes capitata and its floral visitors during the flowering period. We used a temperature-free air-controlled enhancement (T-FACE) facility to simulate future warming scenarios by increasing canopy temperature. The tested treatments were: irrigated and ambient canopy temperature (Control); non-irrigated and ambient canopy temperature (wS); irrigated and elevated canopy temperature (eT, +2 °C above ambient canopy temperature); and non-irrigated and elevated canopy temperature (wSeT). The effects of treatments on the time of flower opening and closing, sugar concentration in the nectar, and plant-flower visitor interactions were assessed. In the warmed treatments, S. capitata flower opening occurred ~45 min earlier compared to non-warmed treatments, and flowers remained opened for only ~3 h. Further, the sugar concentration in the nectar from eT was 39% higher than in the Control. The effects of warming on floral biology and flower resource production in S. capitata had an impact on the plant-floral visitor relationships with the bees Apis mellifera and Paratrigona lineata, the most abundant potential pollinating floral visitors, and the butterfly visitor Hemiargus hanno. Additionally, around noon, the interactive and additive effects of the combined wS and eT treatments decreased insect visiting frequency. These results suggest that warming and soil water deficiency could affect flower-visitor interactions and thus the reproductive success of S. capitata in tropical belts.

Changes in temperature alter competitive interactions and overall structure of fig wasp communities

Organisms exist within ecological networks, connected through interactions such as parasitism, predation and mutualism which can modify their abundance and distribution within habitat patches. Differential species responses make it hard to predict the influence of climate change at the community scale. Understanding the interplay between climate and biotic interactions can improve our predictions of how ecosystems will respond to current global warming. We aim to understand how climate affects the multi-trophic biotic interactions as well as the community structure using the enclosed communities of wasps associated with figs as study system. To examine the presence and strength of multi-trophic species interactions, we first characterized the multi-trophic community of fig wasps associated with Ficus racemosa and then applied hierarchical joint species distribution models, fitted to community monitoring data. We further evaluated the effect of climate on individual species trends as well as inter-specific interactions. We found that the competitive balance shifted to favour non-pollinating galling wasps and disadvantage the dominant pollinator in sub-optimal conditions. Further, sub-optimal conditions for galling wasps facilitated the occurrence of their specialized parasitoid, as changes cascaded across trophic levels and led to alternative community structures. Our results highlight the role of how species interactions can be modified across multiple trophic levels in a fig wasp community according to climate.

Mismatch-induced growth reductions in a clade of Arctic-breeding shorebirds are rarely mitigated by increasing temperatures

In seasonal environments subject to climate change, organisms typically show phenological changes. As these changes are usually stronger in organisms at lower trophic levels than those at higher trophic levels, mismatches between consumers and their prey may occur during the consumers' reproduction period. While in some species a trophic mismatch induces reductions in offspring growth, this is not always the case. This variation may be caused by the relative strength of the mismatch, or by mitigating factors like increased temperature-reducing energetic costs. We investigated the response of chick growth rate to arthropod abundance and temperature for six populations of ecologically similar shorebirds breeding in the Arctic and sub-Arctic (four subspecies of Red Knot Calidris canutus, Great Knot C. tenuirostris and Surfbird C. virgata). In general, chicks experienced growth benefits (measured as a condition index) when hatching before the seasonal peak in arthropod abundance, and growth reductions when hatching after the peak. The moment in the season at which growth reductions occurred varied between populations, likely depending on whether food was limiting growth before or after the peak. Higher temperatures led to faster growth on average, but could only compensate for increasing trophic mismatch for the population experiencing the coldest conditions. We did not find changes in the timing of peaks in arthropod availability across the study years, possibly because our series of observations was relatively short; timing of hatching displayed no change over the years either. Our results suggest that a trend in trophic mismatches may not yet be evident; however, we show Arctic-breeding shorebirds to be vulnerable to this phenomenon and vulnerability to depend on seasonal prey dynamics.

Setting priorities for climate change adaptation of Critical Sites in the Africa-Eurasian waterbird flyways

Despite their importance for biodiversity and ecosystem services, wetlands are among the most threatened ecosystems globally. The conservation of many migratory waterbirds depends on the conservation of a network of key sites along their flyways. However, the suitability of these sites is changing under climate change, and it is important that management of individual sites in the network adapts to these changes. Using bioclimatic models that also account for changes in inundation, we found that projected climate change will reduce habitat suitability for waterbirds at 57.5% of existing Critical Sites within Africa-Eurasia, varying from 20.1% in Eastern Europe to 87.0% in Africa. African and Middle East sites are particularly threatened, comprising 71 of the 100 most vulnerable sites. By highlighting priority sites for conservation and classifying Critical Sites into Climate Change Adaptation Strategy (CCAS) classes, our results can be used to support the climate change adaptation of both individual sites and the entire site network.

Ecological Leverage Points: Species Interactions Amplify the Physiological Effects of Global Environmental Change in the Ocean

Marine ecosystems are increasingly impacted by global environmental changes, including warming temperatures, deoxygenation, and ocean acidification. Marine scientists recognize intuitively that these environmental changes are translated into community changes via organismal physiology. However, physiology remains a black box in many ecological studies, and coexisting species in a community are often assumed to respond similarly to environmental stressors. Here, we emphasize how greater attention to physiology can improve our ability to predict the emergent effects of ocean change. In particular, understanding shifts in the intensity and outcome of species interactions such as competition and predation requires a sharpened focus on physiological variation among community members and the energetic demands and trophic mismatches generated by environmental changes. Our review also highlights how key species interactions that are sensitive to environmental change can operate as ecological leverage points through which small changes in abiotic conditions are amplified into large changes in marine ecosystems.

Investigation of roost composition of passerine birds in different environmental conditions

Abstract The majority of the birds in different habitats are stressed due to alteration in multiple climate factors contributing to their loss. The present study has been planned to find the roosts composition of passerine birds in different major and sub-habitats of Punjab, Pakistan. In Faisalabad, of the four species, the higher number of exits was almost comparable, while Passer domesticus and Pastor roseus were more abundant than Tachycinet bicolor and Lanius cristatus. For the three remaining birds, total exits and returns were 180 for P. roseus, 181 for T. bicolor, and 179 for L. cristatus, respectively. Considering the exits in morning hours, a total of 314, 256, 246 and 210, were recorded from Sheikhupura. In Khanewal, of the four species, the highest exits and returns were that of P. domesticus (407; 451), followed by that of the P. roseus (273; 336), T. bicolor (242; 319) and L. cristatus (220; 397). The temperature imposed serious effects on roost exits for the four birds. The varied P-values which were higher (< 0.001***, < 0.001***, 0.002 **, <0.001***) appeared to limit the roost exits for them. Nonetheless, the impact of relative humidity exerted a strong influence on the T. bicolor (0.003**). In roosts return, it was seen that roost returns were even likely in warm temperatures and precipitation did not impose seriously on returns, and even in light rainfall. Nonetheless, relative humidity (RH) strongly impacted the sparrow. The T. bicolor and L. cristatus were adversely affected with the slopes (1.37) and (2.06), indicated with each percentage increase of relative humidity, and slope variations became least.

Climate change and expanding invasive species drive widespread declines of native trout in the northern Rocky Mountains, USA

Climate change and invasive species are major threats to native biodiversity, but few empirical studies have examined their combined effects at large spatial and temporal scales. Using 21,917 surveys collected over 30 years, we quantified the impacts of climate change on the past and future distributions of five interacting native and invasive trout species throughout the northern Rocky Mountains, USA. We found that the occupancy of native bull trout and cutthroat trout declined by 18 and 6%, respectively (1993–2018), and was predicted to decrease by an additional 39 and 16% by 2080. However, reasons for these occupancy reductions markedly differed among species: Climate-driven increases in water temperature and decreases in summer flow likely caused declines of bull trout, while climate-induced expansion of invasive species largely drove declines of cutthroat trout. Our results demonstrate that climate change can affect ecologically similar, co-occurring native species through distinct pathways, necessitating species-specific management actions.

Climate change negates positive CO2 effects on marine species biomass and productivity by altering the strength and direction of trophic interactions

One of the biggest challenges in more accurately forecasting the effects of climate change on future food web dynamics relates to how climate change affects multi-trophic species interactions, particularly when multiple interacting stressors are considered. Using a dynamic food web model, we investigate the individual and combined effect of ocean warming and acidification on changes in trophic interaction strengths (both direct and indirect) and the consequent effects on biomass structure of food web functional groups. To do this, we mimicked a species-rich multi-trophic-level temperate shallow-water rocky reef food web and integrated empirical data from mesocosm experiments on altered species interactions under warming and acidification, into food-web models. We show that a low number of strong temperature-driven changes in direct trophic interactions (feeding and competition) will largely determine the magnitude of biomass change (either increase or decrease) of high-order consumers, with increasing consumer biomass suppressing that of prey species. Ocean acidification, in contrast, alters a large number of weak indirect interactions (e.g. cascading effects of increased or decreased abundances of other groups), enabling a large increase in consumer and prey biomass. The positive effects of ocean acidification are driven by boosted primary productivity, with energy flowing up to higher trophic levels. We show that warming is a much stronger driver of positive as well as negative modifications of species biomass compared to ocean acidification. Warming affects a much smaller number of existing trophic interactions, though, with direct consumer-resource effects being more important than indirect effects. We conclude that the functional role of consumers in future food webs will be largely regulated by alterations in the strength of direct trophic interactions under ocean warming, with ensuing effects on the biomass structure of marine food webs.

Uncertainty, Complexity and Constraints: How Do We Robustly Assess Biological Responses under a Rapidly Changing Climate?

How robust is our assessment of impacts to ecosystems and species from a rapidly changing climate during the 21st century? We examine the challenges of uncertainty, complexity and constraints associated with applying climate projections to understanding future biological responses. This includes an evaluation of how to incorporate the uncertainty associated with different greenhouse gas emissions scenarios and climate models, and constraints of spatiotemporal scales and resolution of climate data into impact assessments. We describe the challenges of identifying relevant climate metrics for biological impact assessments and evaluate the usefulness and limitations of different methodologies of applying climate change to both quantitative and qualitative assessments. We discuss the importance of incorporating extreme climate events and their stochastic tendencies in assessing ecological impacts and transformation, and provide recommendations for better integration of complex climate–ecological interactions at relevant spatiotemporal scales. We further recognize the compounding nature of uncertainty when accounting for our limited understanding of the interactions between climate and biological processes. Given the inherent complexity in ecological processes and their interactions with climate, we recommend integrating quantitative modeling with expert elicitation from diverse disciplines and experiential understanding of recent climate-driven ecological processes to develop a more robust understanding of ecological responses under different scenarios of future climate change. Inherently complex interactions between climate and biological systems also provide an opportunity to develop wide-ranging strategies that resource managers can employ to prepare for the future.

Habitat characteristics and climatic factors influence microhabitat selection and arthropod community structure in a globally rare central Appalachian shale barren

The central Appalachian shale barrens, a globally unique habitat type restricted to the eastern United States, presents an insular and physiologically stressful environment with sparse vegetation and extreme ground surface and air temperatures. Despite the high levels of plant species endemism within these systems, information on invertebrate communities and habitat preferences is extremely limited.Through this study, we aimed to better understand a shale barren arthropod community, microhabitat selection, and the influence of habitat characteristics and climatic factors. We employed pitfall traps to sample epigeic arthropods during the 2016 growing season in a shale barren habitat.Arthropod community composition was driven by overstory trees, mediated through accumulated leaf litter and availability of shaded microhabitats. Ambient air temperature also influenced the surface activity of various taxa with spiders decreasing at higher temperatures and ants, crickets, flies, and harvestmen all increasing in relative abundance.Habitat integrity of the central Appalachian shale barrens is threatened by forest succession and mesophication, encroaching invasive plant species, and rising ambient air temperatures, all of which can alter the extent of overstory vegetation and availability of shaded microhabitats. These biotic and physical pressures will subsequently affect epigeic arthropod community composition, depending on adaptive capacity of individual taxa.To the authors' knowledge, these findings constitute only the second published work on arthropod communities and the first to focus on epigeic taxa in this globally rare habitat type. Continued conservation of these unique, insular habitats and their adapted inhabitants requires a multifaceted approach that considers current and future conditions.

Ocean warming threatens key trophic interactions supporting a commercial fishery in a climate change hotspot

Worldwide, rising ocean temperatures are causing declines and range shifts in marine species. The direct effects of climate change on the biology of marine organisms are often well documented; yet, knowledge on the indirect effects, particularly through trophic interactions, is largely lacking. We provide evidence of ocean warming decoupling critical trophic interactions supporting a commercially important mollusc in a climate change hotspot. Dietary assessments of the Australian blacklip abalone (Haliotis rubra) indicate primary dependency on a widespread macroalgal species (Phyllospora comosa) which we show to be in state of decline due to ocean warming, resulting in abalone biomass reductions. Niche models suggest further declines in P. comosa over the coming decades and ongoing risks to H. rubra. This study highlights the importance of studies from climate change hotspots and understanding the interplay between climate and trophic interactions when determining the likely response of marine species to environmental changes.

Raised seasonal temperatures reinforce autumn Varroa destructor infestation in honey bee colonies

Varroa destructor is the main pest of the honey bee Apis mellifera, causing colony losses. We investigated the effect of temperature on the autumn abundance of V. destructor in bee colonies over 1991-2020 in Central Europe. We tested the hypothesis that temperature can affect autumn mite populations with different time-lags modulating the bee abundance and brood availability. We showed that raised spring (March-May) and autumn (October) temperatures reinforce autumn V. destructor infestation in the bee colonies. The critical temperature signals embrace periods of bee activity, i.e., just after the first cleansing flights and just before the last observed bee flights, but no direct effects of phenological changes on V. destructor abundance were found. These effects were potentially associated with increased bee reproduction in the specific periods of the year and not with the extended period of activity or accelerated spring onset. We found significant effects of autumn bee abundance, autumn capped brood abundance, and the number of colonies merged on autumn mite infestation. We also observed differences in V. destructor abundance between bees derived from different subspecies. We indicated that climatic effects, through influence on the bee abundance and brood availability, are one of the main drivers regulating V. destructor abundance.

A case for associational resistance: Apparent support for the stress gradient hypothesis varies with study system

According to the stress gradient hypothesis (SGH), ecological interactions between organisms shift positively as environmental stress increases. In the case of associational resistance, habitat is modified to ameliorate stress, benefitting other organisms. The SGH is contentious due to conflicting evidence and theoretical perspectives, so we adopted a meta-analytic approach to determine if it is widely supported across a variety of contexts, including different kingdoms, ecosystems, habitats, interactions, stressors, and life history stages. We developed an extensive list of Boolean search criteria to search the published ecological literature and successfully detect studies that both directly tested the hypothesis, and those that were relevant but never mentioned it. We found that the SGH is well supported by studies that feature bacteria, plants, terrestrial ecosystems, interspecific negative interactions, adults, survival instead of growth or reproduction, and drought, fire, and nutrient stress. We conclude that the SGH is indeed a broadly relevant ecological hypothesis that is currently held back by cross-disciplinary communication barriers. More SGH research is needed beyond the scope of interspecific plant competition, and more SGH research should feature multifactor stress. There remains a need to account for positive interactions in scientific pursuits, such as associational resistance in tests of the SGH.

Climate Change and the Spatiotemporal Variation in Survival of a Long-Distance Migrant (White Stork, Ciconia ciconia) across Western Europe

The spatial variation in the strength of climate change may lead to different impacts on migratory birds using different breeding areas across a region. We used a long-term data series of White Stork ring recoveries to study the temporal and spatial variation of annual survival rates of White Stork across western Europe between 1960 and 2009 in relation to climatic and environmental conditions at their breeding and wintering grounds. White Stork survival was estimated from the Cormack–Jolly–Seber (CJS) model using a cohort-based analysis. Our results support that climate change has caused a gradual decline in the survival performance of western European White Storks during the study period. Both the shape and the strength of the relationship between climate warming and survival differ among different life-stages of the individual development, with juvenile White Storks more strongly affected. The decline in survival is particularly marked for those storks breeding in southern Europe. The large-scale effect of climatic conditions identified in this widespread long-distance migrant species represents a highly likely scenario for other migratory birds in Europe.

Hemp Pest Spectrum and Potential Relationship between Helicoverpa zea Infestation and Hemp Production in the United States in the Face of Climate Change

Simple Summary

Cultivation of industrial hemp Cannabis sativa in the United States is now being expanded due to the recent legalization of the crop. Multiple insect pests attack the crop. One of the common pests is the corn earworm Helicoverpa zea that causes extensive damage to the marketable parts of hemp. Changing global climate may lead to expansion of the geographic range of insect pests. Thus, growers of this crop in the United States have to face new and intense pest problems now and in the years to come. Here, we assess the potential relationship between corn earworm infestation and hemp production in the US in the face of climate change. We also provide an update on the arthropods associated with hemp cultivation across the US. Climate change can affect aspects of interactions between hemp and corn earworm. Temperature and photoperiod affect the development and diapause process in H. zea. Drought leads to a reduction in hemp growth. Overall, our assessment suggests the selection of varieties resistant to stresses from climate and insects. Host plant diversity may prevent populations of corn earworm from reaching outbreak levels. Ongoing research on effective management of H. zea on hemp is critical.

Abstract

There has been a resurgence in the cultivation of industrial hemp, Cannabis sativa L., in the United States since its recent legalization. This may facilitate increased populations of arthropods associated with the plant. Hemp pests target highly marketable parts of the plant, such as flowers, stalks, and leaves, which ultimately results in a decline in the quality. Industrial hemp can be used for several purposes including production of fiber, grain, and cannabidiol. Thus, proper management of pests is essential to achieve a substantial yield of hemp in the face of climate change. In this review, we provide updates on various arthropods associated with industrial hemp in the United States and examine the potential impact of climate change on corn earworm (CEW) Helicoverpa zea Boddie, a major hemp pest. For example, temperature and photoperiod affect the development and diapause process in CEW. Additionally, drought can lead to a reduction in hemp growth. Host plant diversity of CEW may prevent populations of the pest from reaching outbreak levels. It is suggested that hemp varieties resistant to drought, high soil salinity, cold, heat, humidity, and common pests and diseases should be selected. Ongoing research on effective management of CEW in hemp is critical.

Plant removal across an elevational gradient marginally reduces rates, substantially reduces variation in mineralization

The loss of aboveground plant diversity alters belowground ecosystem function; yet, the mechanisms underpinning this relationship and the degree to which plant community structure and climate mediate the effects of plant species loss remain unclear. Here, we explored how plant species loss through experimental removal shaped belowground function in ecosystems characterized by different climatic regimes and edaphic properties. We measured plant community composition as well as potential carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) mineralization and microbial extracellular enzyme activity in soils collected from four unique plant removal experiments located along an elevational gradient in Colorado, USA. We found that, regardless of the identity of the removed species or the climate at each site, plant removal decreased the absolute variation in potential N mineralization rates and marginally reduced the magnitude of N mineralization rates. While plant species removal also marginally reduced C mineralization rates, C mineralization, unlike N mineralization, displayed sensitivity to the climatic and edaphic differences among sites, where C mineralization was greatest at the high elevation site that receives the most precipitation annually and contains the largest soil total C pool. Plant removal had little impact on soil enzyme activity. Removal effects were not contingent on the amount of biomass removed annually, and shifts in mineralization rates occurred despite only marginal shifts in plant community structure following plant species removal. Our results present a surprisingly simple and consistent pattern of belowground response to the loss of dominant plant species across an elevational gradient with different climatic and edaphic properties, suggesting a common response of belowground ecosystem function to plant species loss regardless of which plant species are lost or the broader climatic context.

Factors influencing distributional shifts and abundance at the range core of a climate-sensitive mammal

Species are frequently responding to contemporary climate change by shifting to higher elevations and poleward to track suitable climate space. However, depending on local conditions and species' sensitivity, the nature of these shifts can be highly variable and difficult to predict. Here, we examine how the American pika (Ochotona princeps), a philopatric, montane lagomorph, responds to climatic gradients at three spatial scales. Using mixed-effects modeling in an information-theoretic approach, we evaluated a priori model suites regarding predictors of site occupancy, relative abundance, and elevational-range retraction across 760 talus patches, nested within 64 watersheds across the Northern Rocky Mountains of North America, during 2017-2020. The top environmental predictors differed across these response metrics. Warmer temperatures in summer and winter were associated with lower occupancy, lower relative abundances, and greater elevational retraction across watersheds. Occupancy was also strongly influenced by habitat patch size, but only when combined with climate metrics such as actual evapotranspiration. Using a second analytical approach, acute heat stress and summer precipitation best explained retraction residuals (i.e., the relative extent of retraction given the original elevational range of occupancy). Despite the study domain occurring near the species' geographic-range center, where populations might have higher abundances and be at lower risk of climate-related stress, 33.9% of patches showed evidence of recent extirpations. Pika-extirpated sites averaged 1.44℃ warmer in summer than did occupied sites. Additionally, the minimum elevation of pika occupancy has retracted upslope in 69% of watersheds (mean: 281 m). Our results emphasize the nuance associated with evaluating species' range dynamics in response to climate gradients, variability, and temperature exceedances, especially in regions where species occupy gradients of conditions that may constitute multiple range edges. Furthermore, this study highlights the importance of evaluating diverse drivers across response metrics to improve the predictive accuracy of widely used, correlative models.

Conditional love? Co-occurrence patterns of drought-sensitive species in European grasslands are consistent with the stress-gradient hypothesis

AIM

The stress-gradient hypothesis (SGH) postulates that species interactions shift from negative to positive with increasing abiotic stress. Interactions between species are increasingly being recognized as important drivers of species distributions, but it is still unclear whether stress-induced changes in interactions affect continental-to-global scale species distributions. Here, we tested whether associations of vascular plant species in dry grasslands in Europe follow the SGH along a climatic water deficit (CWD) gradient across the continent.

LOCATION

Dry grasslands in Europe.

TIME PERIOD

Present.

MAJOR TAXA STUDIED

Vascular plants.

METHODS

We built a context-dependent joint species distribution model (JSDM) to estimate the residual associations (i.e., associations that are not explained by the abiotic environment) of 161 plant species as a function of the CWD based on community data from 8,660 vegetation plots. We evaluated changes in residual associations between species for pairs and on the community level, and we compared responses for groups of species with different drought tolerances.

RESULTS

We found contrasting shifts in associations for drought-sensitive and drought-tolerant species. For drought-sensitive species, 21% of the pairwise associations became more positive with increasing CWD, whereas 17% became more negative. In contrast, only 17% of the pairwise associations involving drought-tolerant species became more positive, whereas 27% became more negative in areas with a high CWD. Additionally, the incidence of positive associations increased with drought for drought-sensitive species and decreased for drought-tolerant species.

MAIN CONCLUSIONS

We found that associations of drought-sensitive plant species became more positive with drought, in line with the SGH. In contrast, associations of drought-tolerant species became more negative. Additionally, changes in associations of single species pairs were highly variable. Our results indicate that stress-modulated species associations might influence the distribution of species over large geographical extents, thus leading to unexpected responses under climate change through shifts in species associations.

Physiology, niche characteristics and extreme events: Current and future habitat suitability of a rhodolith-forming species in the Southwestern Atlantic

Given the ecological and biogeochemical importance of rhodolith beds, it is necessary to investigate how future environmental conditions will affect these organisms. We investigated the impacts of increased nutrient concentrations, acidification, and marine heatwaves on the performance of the rhodolith-forming species Lithothamnion crispatum in a short-term experiment, including the recovery of individuals after stressor removal. Furthermore, we developed an ecological niche model to establish which environmental conditions determine its current distribution along the Brazilian coast and to project responses to future climate scenarios. Although L. crispatum suffered a reduction in photosynthetic performance when exposed to stressors, they returned to pre-experiment values following the return of individuals to control conditions. The model showed that the most important variables in explaining the current distribution of L. crispatum on the Brazilian coast were maximum nitrate and temperature. In future ocean conditions, the model predicted a range expansion of habitat suitability for this species of approximately 58.5% under RCP 8.5. Physiological responses to experimental future environmental conditions corroborated model predictions of the expansion of this species' habitat suitability in the future. This study, therefore, demonstrates the benefits of applying combined approaches to examine potential species responses to climate-change drivers from multiple angles.