Climate change and shrinking salamanders: alternative mechanisms for changes in plethodontid salamander body size

Climate-associated decline of body condition in a fossorial salamander

Temperate ectotherms have responded to recent environmental change, likely due to the direct and indirect effects of temperature on key life cycle events. Yet, a substantial number of ectotherms are fossorial, spending the vast majority of their lives in subterranean microhabitats that are assumed to be buffered against environmental change. Here, we examine whether seasonal climatic conditions influence body condition (a measure of general health and vigor), reproductive output, and breeding phenology in a northern population of fossorial salamander (Spotted Salamander, Ambystoma maculatum). We found that breeding body condition declined over a 12-year monitoring period (2008-2019) with warmer summer and autumn temperatures at least partly responsible for the observed decline in body condition. Our findings are consistent with the hypothesis that elevated metabolism drives the negative association between temperature and condition. Population-level reproduction, assessed via egg mass counts, showed high interannual variation and was weakly influenced by autumn temperatures. Salamander breeding phenology was strongly correlated with lake ice melt but showed no long-term temporal trend (1986-2019). Climatic warming in the region, which has been and is forecasted to be strongest in the summer and autumn, is predicted to lead to a 5%-27% decline in salamander body condition under realistic near-future climate scenarios. Although the subterranean environment offers a thermal buffer, the observed decline in condition and relatively strong effect of summer temperature on body condition suggest that fossorial salamanders are sensitive to the effects of a warming climate. Given the diversity of fossorial taxa, heightened attention to the vulnerability of subterranean microhabitat refugia and their inhabitants is warranted amid global climatic change.

Rapid phenotypic change in a polymorphic salamander over 43 years

Color polymorphic animals offer a unique system for studying intraspecific phenotypic responses to climate change. Discrete color morphs are easy to identify, and correlated trait responses of morphs can indicate how climate warming may facilitate long-term maintenance of polymorphisms. We use a historical dataset spanning 43 years to examine temporal shifts in color morph frequency and body size in response to climate in the Eastern Red-backed Salamander, Plethodon cinereus, which contains a widespread striped/unstriped color polymorphism. We created a pipeline to extract high-throughput trait data from fluid-preserved museum specimens where we batch-photographed salamanders, de-aggregated individual specimens from photographs, and solicited help of community scientists to score color morphs. We used a linear modeling framework that includes information about spatial population structure to demonstrate that color morph frequency and body size vary in response to climate, elevation, and over time, with an overall trend of higher frequency and decreased body size of the striped morph, but increased size of the unstriped morph. These surprising results suggest that morphs may be responding to multiple climate and geographic drivers through co-adapted morphological changes. This work highlights new practices of extracting trait data from museum specimens to demonstrate species phenotypes response to climate change.

Updating salamander datasets with phenotypic and stomach content information for two mainland Speleomantes

European plethodontid salamanders (genus Speleomantes; formerly Hydromantes) are a group of eight strictly protected amphibian species which are sensitive to human-induced environmental changes. Long-term monitoring is highly recommended to evaluate their status and to assess potential threats. Here we used two low-impact methodologies to build up a large dataset on two mainland Speleomantes species (S. strinatii and S. ambrosii), which represents an update to two previously published datasets, but also includes several new populations. Specifically, we provide a set of 851 high quality images and a table gathering stomach contents recognized from 560 salamanders. This dataset offers the opportunity to analyse phenotypic traits and stomach contents of eight populations belonging to two Speleomantes species. Furthermore, the data collection performed over different periods allows to expand the potential analyses through a wide temporal scale, allowing long-term studies.

Measurement(s)	Gastric Content • Image
Technology Type(s)	light microscopy • Digital Photography
Sample Characteristic - Organism	Speleomantes • Hydromantes
Sample Characteristic - Environment	Subterranean • karst cave • mine
Sample Characteristic - Location	Italy • Region of Liguria • Municipality of Genova • Province of La Spezia

Machine-accessible metadata file describing the reported data: 10.6084/m9.figshare.14346176

Subterranean movement inferred by temporary emigration in Barton Springs salamanders (Eurycea sosorum)

Movement behavior is an important aspect of animal ecology but is challenging to study in species that are unobservable for some portion of their lives, such as those inhabiting subterranean environments. Using four years of robust-design capture-recapture data, we examined the probability of movement into subterranean habitat by a population of endangered Barton Springs salamanders (Eurycea sosorum), a species that inhabits both surface and subterranean groundwater habitats. We tested the effects of environmental variables and body size on survival and temporary emigration, using the latter as a measure of subterranean habitat use. Based on 2,046 observations of 1,578 individuals, we found that temporary emigration was higher for larger salamanders, 79% of which temporarily emigrated into subterranean habitat between primary sampling intervals, on average. Body size was a better predictor of temporary emigration and survival compared to environmental covariates, although coefficients from lower ranked models suggested turbidity and dissolved oxygen may influence salamander movement between the surface and subsurface. Surface population dynamics are partly driven by movement below ground and therefore surface abundance estimates represent a fraction of the superpopulation. As such, while surface habitat management remains an important conservation strategy for this species, periodic declines in apparent surface abundance do not necessarily indicate declines of the superpopulation associated with the spring habitat.

Abundance of montane salamanders over an elevational gradient

Climate change is expected to systematically alter the distribution and population dynamics of species around the world. The effects are expected to be particularly strong at high latitudes and elevations, and for ectothermic species with small ranges and limited movement potential, such as salamanders in the southern Appalachian Mountains. In this study, we sought to establish baseline abundance estimates for plethodontid salamanders (family: Plethodontidae) over an elevational gradient in Great Smoky Mountains National Park. In addition to generating these baseline data for multiple species, we describe methods for surveying salamanders that allow for meaningful comparisons over time by separating observation and ecological processes generating the data. We found that Plethodon jordani had a mid-elevation peak (1,500 m) in abundance and Desmognathus wrighti increased in abundance with elevation up to the highest areas of the park (2025 m), whereas Eurycea wilderae increased in abundance up to 1,600 m and then plateaued with increasing uncertainty. Litter depth, herbaceous ground cover, and proximity to stream were also important predictors of abundance (dependent upon species), whereas daily temperature, precipitation, ground cover, and humidity influenced detection rates. Our data provide some of the first minimally biased information for future studies to assess changes in the abundance and distribution of salamanders in this region. Understanding abundance patterns along with detailed baseline distributions will be critical for comparisons with future surveys to understand the population and community-level effects of climate change on montane salamanders.

Demographic consequences of changing body size in a terrestrial salamander

Changes in climate can alter individual body size, and the resulting shifts in reproduction and survival are expected to impact population dynamics and viability. However, appropriate methods to account for size-dependent demographic changes are needed, especially in understudied yet threatened groups such as amphibians. We investigated individual- and population-level demographic effects of changes in body size for a terrestrial salamander using capture-mark-recapture data. For our analysis, we implemented an integral projection model parameterized with capture-recapture likelihood estimates from a Bayesian framework. Our study combines survival and growth data from a single dataset to quantify the influence of size on survival while including different sources of uncertainty around these parameters, demonstrating how selective forces can be studied in populations with limited data and incomplete recaptures. We found a strong dependency of the population growth rate on changes in individual size, mediated by potential changes in selection on mean body size and on maximum body size. Our approach of simultaneous parameter estimation can be extended across taxa to identify eco-evolutionary mechanisms acting on size-specific vital rates, and thus shaping population dynamics and viability.

Predicted alteration of surface activity as a consequence of climate change

Wildlife are faced with numerous threats to survival, none more pressing than that of climate change. Understanding how species will respond behaviorally, physiologically, and demographically to a changing climate is a cornerstone of many contemporary ecological studies, especially for organisms, such as amphibians, whose persistence is closely tied to abiotic conditions. Activity is a useful parameter for understanding the effects of climate change because activity is directly linked to fitness as it dictates foraging times, energy budgets, and mating opportunities. However, activity can be challenging to measure directly, especially for secretive organisms like plethodontid salamanders, which only become surface active when conditions are cool and moist because of their anatomical and physiological restrictions. We estimated abiotic predictors of surface activity for the seven species of the Plethodon jordani complex. Five independent data sets collected from 2004 to 2017 were used to determine the parameters driving salamander surface activity in the present day, which were then used to predict potential activity changes over the next 80 yrs. Average active seasonal temperature and vapor pressure deficit were the strongest predictors of salamander surface activity and, without physiological or behavioral modifications, salamanders were predicted to exhibit a higher probability of surface activity during peak active season under future climate conditions. Temperatures during the active season likely do not exceed salamander thermal maxima to cause activity suppression and, until physiological limits are reached, future conditions may continue to increase activity. Our model is the first comprehensive field-based study to assess current and future surface activity probability. Our study provides insights into how a key behavior driving fitness may be affected by climate change.

Seasonal differences in climate change explain a lack of multi-decadal shifts in population characteristics of a pond breeding salamander

There is considerable variation among studies that evaluate how amphibian populations respond to global climate change. We used 23 years of annual survey data to test whether changes in climate have caused predictable shifts in the phenology and population characteristics of adult spotted salamanders (Ambystoma maculatum) during spring breeding migrations. Although we observed year-to-year correlation between seasonal climate variables and salamander population characteristics, there have not been long-term, directional shifts in phenological or population characteristics. Warm winters consistently resulted in early migration dates, but across the 23-year study, there was no overall shift towards warmer winters and thus no advanced migration timing. Warm summers and low variability in summer temperatures were correlated with large salamander body sizes, yet an overall shift towards increasing body sizes was not observed despite rising summer temperatures during the study. This was likely due to the absence of long-term changes of within-year variation in summer temperatures, which was a stronger determinant of body size than summer temperature alone. Climate-induced shifts in population characteristics were thus not observed for this species as long-term changes in important seasonal climate variables were not observed during the 23-years of the study. Different amphibian populations will likely be more resilient to climate change impacts than others, and the probability of amphibians exhibiting long-term population changes will depend on how seasonal climate change interacts with a species’ life history, phenology, and geographic location. Linking a wide range of seasonal climatic conditions to species or population characteristics should thus improve our ability for explaining idiosyncratic responses of species to climate change.

Climate change-based models predict range shifts in the distribution of the only Asian plethodontid salamander: Karsenia koreana

Populations see their range fluctuate in relation to environmental variations, including climate change, and their survival is linked to the maintenance of large enough populations and broad enough distributions during these variations. Most amphibian populations are threatened by numerous ecological and anthropogenic variables acting in synergy with climate change. Accumulating basic ecological data such as range enables the development of population and range dynamics, themselves resulting on adequate conservation plans. Karsenia koreana is the only known Asian plethodontic salamander, occurring in a very restricted area only. Based on presence data, we created an ecological model using six bioclimatic factors with low multicollinearity to define the adequate habitat of the species, and we modelled the predicted suitability of the Korean landscape following four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) predicting climate change scenarios based on CO2 concentrations in 2050 and 2070. The maximum entropy model for the current distribution produced a landscape suitability considerably wider than the current known distribution. The projected ranges for each RCP indicated marked increases, decreases and shifts in areas with suitable landscapes due to climate change. The lowest RCP prediction resulted in an increase in suitable area, although potentially without connectivity with current populations, while the highest RCP predictions resulted in a decrease. Our results highlight the potential negative impact of climate change, thus requiring updates in conservation plans for K. koreana. The methods used here can be replicated with any land-dwelling species, and our results reflect expected range shifts for most amphibians of the northern hemisphere.

Interspecific interactions are conditional on temperature in an Appalachian stream salamander community

Differences in the rates of responses to climate change have the potential to disrupt well-established ecological interactions among species. In semi-aquatic communities, competitive asymmetry based on body size currently maintains competitive exclusion and coexistence via interference competition. Elevated temperatures are predicted to have the strongest negative effects on large species and aquatic species. Our objectives were to evaluate the interaction between the effects of elevated temperatures and competitor identity on growth and habitat selection behavior of semi-aquatic salamanders in stream mesocosms. We observed interference competition between small and large species. Elevated temperatures had a negative effect on the larger species and a neutral effect on the smaller species. At elevated temperatures, the strength of interference competition declined, and the smaller species co-occupied the same aquatic cover objects as the larger species more frequently. Disruptions in competitive interactions in this community may affect habitat use patterns and decrease selection for character displacement among species. Determining how biotic interactions change along abiotic gradients is necessary to predict the future long-term stability of current communities.

Plasticity reveals hidden resistance to extinction under climate change in the global hotspot of salamander diversity

Extinction rates are predicted to rise exponentially under climate warming, but many of these predictions ignore physiological and behavioral plasticity that might buffer species from extinction. We evaluated the potential for physiological acclimatization and behavioral avoidance of poor climatic conditions to lower extinction risk under climate change in the global hotspot of salamander diversity, a region currently predicted to lose most of the salamander habitat due to warming. Our approach integrated experimental physiology and behavior into a mechanistic species distribution model to predict extinction risk based on an individual's capacity to maintain energy balance with and without plasticity. We assessed the sensitivity of extinction risk to body size, behavioral strategies, limitations on energy intake, and physiological acclimatization of water loss and metabolic rate. The field and laboratory experiments indicated that salamanders readily acclimatize water loss rates and metabolic rates in ways that could maintain positive energy balance. Projections with plasticity reduced extinction risk by 72% under climate warming, especially in the core of their range. Further analyses revealed that juveniles might experience the greatest physiological stress under climate warming, but we identified specific physiological adaptations or plastic responses that could minimize the lethal physiological stress imposed on juveniles. We conclude that incorporating plasticity fundamentally alters ecological predictions under climate change by reducing extinction risk in the hotspot of salamander diversity.

Shifts in frog size and phenology: Testing predictions of climate change on a widespread anuran using data from prior to rapid climate warming

Changes in body size and breeding phenology have been identified as two major ecological consequences of climate change, yet it remains unclear whether climate acts directly or indirectly on these variables. To better understand the relationship between climate and ecological changes, it is necessary to determine environmental predictors of both size and phenology using data from prior to the onset of rapid climate warming, and then to examine spatially explicit changes in climate, size, and phenology, not just general spatial and temporal trends. We used 100 years of natural history collection data for the wood frog, Lithobates sylvaticus with a range >9 million km², and spatially explicit environmental data to determine the best predictors of size and phenology prior to rapid climate warming (1901–1960). We then tested how closely size and phenology changes predicted by those environmental variables reflected actual changes from 1961 to 2000. Size, phenology, and climate all changed as expected (smaller, earlier, and warmer, respectively) at broad spatial scales across the entire study range. However, while spatially explicit changes in climate variables accurately predicted changes in phenology, they did not accurately predict size changes during recent climate change (1961–2000), contrary to expectations from numerous recent studies. Our results suggest that changes in climate are directly linked to observed phenological shifts. However, the mechanisms driving observed body size changes are yet to be determined, given the less straightforward relationship between size and climate factors examined in this study. We recommend that caution be used in “space‐for‐time” studies where measures of a species’ traits at lower latitudes or elevations are considered representative of those under future projected climate conditions. Future studies should aim to determine mechanisms driving trends in phenology and body size, as well as the impact of climate on population density, which may influence body size.

Demographics, reproduction, growth, and abundance of Jollyville Plateau salamanders (Eurycea tonkawae)

Insights into the ecology and natural history of the neotenic salamander, Eurycea tonkawae, are provided from eight years of capture-recapture data from 10,041 captures of 7,315 individuals at 16 sites. Eurycea tonkawae exhibits seasonal reproduction, with peak gravidity occurring in the fall and winter. Size frequency data indicated recruitment occurred in the spring and summer. Open-population capture-recapture models revealed a similar seasonal pattern at two of three sites, while recruitment was dependent on flow at the third site. Females can reach sexual maturity within one year, and oviposition likely takes place below ground. The asymptotic body length of 1,290 individuals was estimated as 31.73 mm (at ca. two years of age), although there was substantial heterogeneity among growth trajectories. Longevity was approximately eight years, and the median age for a recaptured adult was 2.3 years. Abundance estimated from closed-population and robust-design capture-recapture models varied widely within and among sites (range 41-834), although, surprisingly, dramatic changes in abundance were not observed following prolonged dry periods. Seasonal migration patterns of second-year and older adults may help explain lower ratios of large individuals and higher temporary emigration during the latter half of the year, but further study is required. Low numbers of captures and recaptures precluded the use of open-population models to estimate demographic parameters at several sites; therefore, closed-population (or robust-design) methods are generally recommended. Based on observations of their life history and population demographics, E. tonkawae seems well adapted to conditions where spring flow is variable and surface habitat periodically goes dry.

Cool habitats support darker and bigger butterflies in Australian tropical forests

Morphology mediates the relationship between an organism's body temperature and its environment. Dark organisms, for example, tend to absorb heat more quickly than lighter individuals, which could influence their responses to temperature. Therefore, temperature‐related traits such as morphology may affect patterns of species abundance, richness, and community assembly across a broad range of spatial scales. In this study, we examined variation in color lightness and body size within butterfly communities across hot and cool habitats in the tropical woodland–rainforest ecosystems of northeast Queensland, Australia. Using thermal imaging, we documented the absorption of solar radiation relative to color lightness and wingspan and then built a phylogenetic tree based on available sequences to analyze the effects of habitat on these traits within a phylogenetic framework. In general, darker and larger individuals were more prevalent in cool, closed‐canopy rainforests than in immediately adjacent and hotter open woodlands. In addition, darker and larger butterflies preferred to be active in the shade and during crepuscular hours, while lighter and smaller butterflies were more active in the sun and midday hours—a pattern that held after correcting for phylogeny. Our ex situ experiment supported field observations that dark and large butterflies heated up faster than light and small butterflies under standardized environmental conditions. Our results show a thermal consequence of butterfly morphology across habitats and how environmental factors at a microhabitat scale may affect the distribution of species based on these traits. Furthermore, this study highlights how butterfly species might differentially respond to warming based on ecophysiological traits and how thermal refuges might emerge at microclimatic and habitat scales.

Morphological variation in salamanders and their potential response to climate change

Despite the recognition that some species might quickly adapt to new conditions under climate change, demonstrating and predicting such a fundamental response is challenging. Morphological variations in response to climate may be caused by evolutionary changes or phenotypic plasticity, or both, but teasing apart these processes is difficult. Here, we built on the number of thoracic vertebrae (NTV) in ectothermic vertebrates, a known genetically based feature, to establish a link with body size and evaluate how climate change might affect the future morphological response of this group of species. First, we show that in old-world salamanders, NTV variation is strongly related to changes in body size. Secondly, using 22 salamander species as a case study, we found support for relationships between the spatial variation in selected bioclimatic variables and NTV for most of species. For 44% of species, precipitation and aridity were the predominant drivers of geographical variation of the NTV. Temperature features were dominant for 31% of species, while for 19% temperature and precipitation played a comparable role. This two-step analysis demonstrates that ectothermic vertebrates may evolve in response to climate change by modifying the number of thoracic vertebrae. These findings allow to develop scenarios for potential morphological evolution under future climate change and to identify areas and species in which the most marked evolutionary responses are expected. Resistance to climate change estimated from species distribution models was positively related to present-day species morphological response, suggesting that the ability of morphological evolution may play a role for species' persistence under climate change. The possibility that present-day capacity for local adaptation might help the resistance response to climate change can be integrated into analyses of the impact of global changes and should also be considered when planning management actions favouring species persistence.

Trap characteristics and species morphology explain size-biased sampling of two salamander species

Demographic studies often depend on sampling techniques providing representative samples from populations. However, the sequence of events leading up to a successful capture or detection is susceptible to biases introduced through individual-level behaviour or physiology. Passive sampling techniques may be especially prone to sampling bias caused by size-related phenomena (e.g., physical limitations on trap entrance). We tested for size-biased sampling among five types of passive traps using a 9-year data set for two species of aquatic salamanders that have a 20 and 61 fold change in length over their ontogeny (Amphiuma means, Siren lacertina). Size-biased trapping was evident for both species, with body size distributions (body length mean and SD) of captured individuals differing among sampling techniques. Because our two species differed in girth at similar lengths, we were able to show that size biases (in length) were most likely caused by girth limitations on trap entry rates, and potentially by differences in retention rates. Accounting for the biases of sampling techniques may be critical when assessing current population status and demographic change.

Using motion-sensor camera technology to infer seasonal activity and thermal niche of the desert tortoise (Gopherus agassizii)

Understanding the relationships between environmental variables and wildlife activity is an important part of effective management. The desert tortoise (Gopherus agassizii), an imperiled species of arid environments in the southwest US, may have increasingly restricted windows for activity due to current warming trends. In summer 2013, we deployed 48 motion sensor cameras at the entrances of tortoise burrows to investigate the effects of temperature, sex, and day of the year on the activity of desert tortoises. Using generalized estimating equations, we found that the relative probability of activity was associated with temperature (linear and quadratic), sex, and day of the year. Sex effects showed that male tortoises are generally more active than female tortoises. Temperature had a quadratic effect, indicating that tortoise activity was heightened at a range of temperatures. In addition, we found significant support for interactions between sex and day of the year, and sex and temperature as predictors of the probability of activity. Using our models, we were able to estimate air temperatures and times (days and hours) that were associated with maximum activity during the study. Because tortoise activity is constrained by environmental conditions such as temperature, it is increasingly vital to conduct studies on how tortoises vary their activity throughout the Sonoran Desert to better understand the effects of a changing climate.