Victims of ancient hyperthermal events herald the fates of marine clades and traits under global warming

Marine species and assemblage change foreshadowed by their thermal bias over Early Jurassic warming

A mismatch of species' thermal preferences to their environment may indicate how they will respond to future climate change. Averaging this mismatch across species may forewarn that some assemblages will undergo greater reorganization, extirpation, and possibly extinction, than others. Here, we examine how regional warming determines species occupancy and assemblage composition of marine bivalves, brachiopods, and gastropods over one-million-year time steps during the Early Jurassic. Thermal bias, the difference between modelled regional temperatures and species' long-term thermal optima, predicts a gradient of species occupancy response to warming. Species that become extirpated or extinct tend to have cooler temperature preferences than immigrating species, while regionally persisting species fell midway. Larger regional changes in summer seawater temperatures (up to +10 °C) strengthen the relationship between species thermal bias and the response gradient, which is also stronger for brachiopods than for bivalves, while the relationship collapses during severe seawater deoxygenation. At +3 °C regional seawater warming, around 5 % of pre-existing benthic species in a regional assemblage are extirpated, and immigrating species comprise around one-fourth of the new assemblage. Our results validate thermal bias as an indicator of immigration, persistence, extirpation, and extinction of marine benthic species and assemblages under modern-like magnitudes of climate change.

Cardiac performance mirrors the passive thermal tolerance range in the oyster Ostrea edulis

Increasing frequencies of heatwaves threaten marine ectotherm species but not all alike. In exposed habitats, some species rely on a higher capacity for passive tolerance at higher temperatures, thereby extending time-dependent survival limits. Here, we assessed how the involvement of the cardiovascular system in extended tolerance at the margins of the thermal performance curve is dependent on warming rate. We studied organismal and heart tissue cellular responses of the European oyster, Ostrea edulis, challenged by rapid warming (+2°C per hour) and gradual warming (+2°C per 24 h). Starting at 22°C, cardiac activity was monitored as temperature was increased, tracking cardiac performance curves. Hearts were collected at discrete temperatures to determine cardiomyocyte metabolic profiles. Heart rate peaked at a lower Arrhenius breakpoint temperatures (ABT) of 30.5°C under rapid warming versus 33.9°C under gradual warming. However, oysters survived to higher temperatures under rapid than under gradual warming, with half of oysters dying (LT50) by 36.9°C versus 34.8°C, respectively. As rapid warming passed 30°C, heart rate fell and cardiomyocyte metabolic profiles suddenly changed as oysters switched to anaerobic metabolism for survival. By 36°C, severe fluctuations in Krebs cycle-related metabolites accompanied cardiac failure. In contrast, oysters exposed to gradual warming made gradual, extensive adjustments to intracellular metabolic pathways, prolonging aerobic cardiomyocyte metabolism to higher temperatures. This extended survival duration and ABT, beyond which cardiac activity decreased sharply and ceased. Our results emphasize how the rate of warming forces a trade-off between temperature maxima and survival duration, via tissue- and cellular-level impacts. European oysters possess adaptations that enable extended tolerance and survival of intertidal populations.

A Late Pleistocene coastal ecosystem in French Guiana was hyperdiverse relative to today

Warmer temperatures and higher sea level than today characterized the Last Interglacial interval [Pleistocene, 128 to 116 thousand years ago (ka)]. This period is a remarkable deep-time analog for temperature and sea-level conditions as projected for 2100 AD, yet there has been no evidence of fossil assemblages in the equatorial Atlantic. Here, we report foraminifer, metazoan (mollusks, bony fish, bryozoans, decapods, and sharks among others), and plant communities of coastal tropical marine and mangrove affinities, dating precisely from a ca. 130 to 115 ka time interval near the Equator, at Kourou, in French Guiana. These communities include ca. 230 recent species, some being endangered today and/or first recorded as fossils. The hyperdiverse Kourou mollusk assemblage suggests stronger affinities between Guianese and Caribbean coastal waters by the Last Interglacial than today, questioning the structuring role of the Amazon Plume on tropical Western Atlantic communities at the time. Grassland-dominated pollen, phytoliths, and charcoals from younger deposits in the same sections attest to a marine retreat and dryer conditions during the onset of the last glacial (ca. 110 to 50 ka), with a savanna-dominated landscape and episodes of fire. Charcoals from the last millennia suggest human presence in a mosaic of modern-like continental habitats. Our results provide key information about the ecology and biogeography of pristine Pleistocene tropical coastal ecosystems, especially relevant regarding the-widely anthropogenic-ongoing global warming.

Using the Fossil Record to Understand Extinction Risk and Inform Marine Conservation in a Changing World

Understanding the long-term effects of ongoing global environmental change on marine ecosystems requires a cross-disciplinary approach. Deep-time and recent fossil records can contribute by identifying traits and environmental conditions associated with elevated extinction risk during analogous events in the geologic past and by providing baseline data that can be used to assess historical change and set management and restoration targets and benchmarks. Here, we review the ecological and environmental information available in the marine fossil record and discuss how these archives can be used to inform current extinction risk assessments as well as marine conservation strategies and decision-making at global to local scales. As we consider future research directions in deep-time and conservationpaleobiology, we emphasize the need for coproduced research that unites researchers, conservation practitioners, and policymakers with the communities for whom the impacts of climate and global change are most imminent.

Reduced strength and increased variability of extinction selectivity during mass extinctions

Two of the traits most often observed to correlate with extinction risk in marine animals are geographical range and body size. However, the relative effects of these two traits on extinction risk have not been investigated systematically for either background times or during mass extinctions. To close this knowledge gap, we measure and compare extinction selectivity of geographical range and body size of genera within five classes of benthic marine animals across the Phanerozoic using capture-mark-recapture models. During background intervals, narrow geographical range is strongly associated with greater extinction probability, whereas smaller body size is more weakly associated with greater extinction probability. During mass extinctions, the association between geographical range and extinction probability is reduced in every class and fully eliminated in some, whereas the association between body size and extinction probability varies in strength and direction across classes. While geographical range is universally the stronger predictor of survival during background intervals, variation among classes during mass extinction suggests a fundamental shift in extinction processes during these global catastrophes.

Selectivity of mass extinctions: Patterns, processes, and future directions

A central question in the study of mass extinction is whether these events simply intensify background extinction processes and patterns versus change the driving mechanisms and associated patterns of selectivity. Over the past two decades, aided by the development of new fossil occurrence databases, selectivity patterns associated with mass extinction have become increasingly well quantified and their differences from background patterns established. In general, differences in geographic range matter less during mass extinction than during background intervals, while differences in respiratory and circulatory anatomy that may correlate with tolerance to rapid change in oxygen availability, temperature, and pH show greater evidence of selectivity during mass extinction. The recent expansion of physiological experiments on living representatives of diverse clades and the development of simple, quantitative theories linking temperature and oxygen availability to the extent of viable habitat in the oceans have enabled the use of Earth system models to link geochemical proxy constraints on environmental change with quantitative predictions of the amount and biogeography of habitat loss. Early indications are that the interaction between physiological traits and environmental change can explain substantial proportions of observed extinction selectivity for at least some mass extinction events. A remaining challenge is quantifying the effects of primary extinction resulting from the limits of physiological tolerance versus secondary extinction resulting from the loss of taxa on which a given species depended ecologically. The calibration of physiology-based models to past extinction events will enhance their value in prediction and mitigation efforts related to the current biodiversity crisis.

Advances in the understanding of Blattodea evolution: Insights from phylotranscriptomics and spermathecae

Cockroaches, an ancient and diverse group of insects on earth that originated in the Carboniferous, displays a wide array of morphology or biology diversity. The spermatheca is an organ of the insect reproductive system; the diversity of spermathecae might be the adaption to different mating and sperm storage strategies. Yet a consensus about the phylogenetic relationships among the main lineages of Blattodea and the evolution of spermatheca has not been reached until now. Here we added the transcriptome data of Anaplectidae for the first time and supplemented other family level groups (such as Blaberidae, Corydiidae) to address the pending issues. Our results showed that Blattoidea was recovered as sister to Corydioidea, which was strongly supported by molecular evidence. In Blattoidea, (Lamproblattidae + Anaplectidae) + (Cryptocercidae + Termitoidae) was strongly supported by our molecular data. In Blaberoidea, Pseudophyllodromiidae and Blaberidae were recovered to be monophyletic, while Blattellidae was found to be paraphyletic with respect to Malaccina. Ectobius sylvestris + Malaccina discoidalis formed the sister group to other Blaberoidea; Blattellidae (except Malaccina discoidalis) + Nyctiboridae was found as the sister of Blaberidae. Corydiidae was recovered to be non-monophyletic due to the embedding of Nocticola sp. Our ASR analysis of spermatheca suggested that primary spermathecae were present in the common ancestor, and it transformed at least six times during the evolutionary history of Blattodea. The evolution of spermatheca could be described as a unidirectional trend: the increased size to accommodate more sperm. Furthermore, major splits within the existing genera of cockroaches occurred in the Upper Paleogene to Neogene. Our study provides strong support for the relationship among three superfamilies and offers some new insights into the phylogeny of cockroaches. Meanwhile, this study also provides basic knowledge on the evolution of spermathecae and reproductive patterns.

How predictable are mass extinction events?

Many modern extinction drivers are shared with past mass extinction events, such as rapid climate warming, habitat loss, pollution and invasive species. This commonality presents a key question: can the extinction risk of species during past mass extinction events inform our predictions for a modern biodiversity crisis? To investigate if it is possible to establish which species were more likely to go extinct during mass extinctions, we applied a functional trait-based model of extinction risk using a machine learning algorithm to datasets of marine fossils for the end-Permian, end-Triassic and end-Cretaceous mass extinctions. Extinction selectivity was inferred across each individual mass extinction event, before testing whether the selectivity patterns obtained could be used to 'predict' the extinction selectivity exhibited during the other mass extinctions. Our analyses show that, despite some similarities in extinction selectivity patterns between ancient crises, the selectivity of mass extinction events is inconsistent, which leads to a poor predictive performance. This lack of predictability is attributed to evolution in marine ecosystems, particularly during the Mesozoic Marine Revolution, associated with shifts in community structure alongside coincident Earth system changes. Our results suggest that past extinctions are unlikely to be informative for predicting extinction risk during a projected mass extinction.

Global warming generates predictable extinctions of warm- and cold-water marine benthic invertebrates via thermal habitat loss

Anthropogenic global warming is redistributing marine life and may threaten tropical benthic invertebrates with several potential extinction mechanisms. The net impact of climate change on geographical extinction risk nevertheless remains uncertain. Evidence of widespread climate-driven extinctions and of potentially unidentified mechanisms exists in the fossil record. We quantify organism extinction risk across thermal habitats, estimated by paleoclimate reconstructions, over the past 300 million years. Extinction patterns at seven known events of rapid global warming (hyperthermals) differ significantly from typical patterns, resembling those driven by global geometry under simulated global warming. As isotherms move poleward with warming, the interaction between the geometry of the globe and the temperature-latitude relationship causes an uneven loss of thermal habitat and a bimodal latitudinal distribution of extinctions. Genera with thermal optima warmer than ~21°C show raised extinction odds, while extinction odds continually increase for genera with optima below ~11°C. Genera preferring intermediate temperatures generally have no additional extinction risk during hyperthermals, except under extreme conditions as the end-Permian mass extinction. Widespread present-day climate-driven range shifts indicate that occupancy loss is already underway. Given the most-likely projections of modern warming, our model, validated by seven past hyperthermal events, indicates that sustained warming has the potential to annihilate cold-water habitat and its endemic species completely within centuries.

Morphological response accompanying size reduction of belemnites during an Early Jurassic hyperthermal event modulated by life history

One of the most common responses of marine ectotherms to rapid warming is a reduction in body size, but the underlying reasons are unclear. Body size reductions have been documented alongside rapid warming events in the fossil record, such as across the Pliensbachian-Toarcian boundary (PToB) event (~ 183 Mya). As individuals grow, parallel changes in morphology can indicate details of their ecological response to environmental crises, such as changes in resource acquisition, which may anticipate future climate impacts. Here we show that the morphological growth of a marine predator belemnite species (extinct coleoid cephalopods) changed significantly over the PToB warming event. Increasing robustness at different ontogenetic stages likely results from indirect consequences of warming, like resource scarcity or hypercalcification, pointing toward varying ecological tolerances among species. The results of this study stress the importance of taking life history into account as well as phylogeny when studying impacts of environmental stressors on marine organisms.