Meeting Paris agreement objectives will temper seabird winter distribution shifts in the North Atlantic Ocean

Combined threats of climate change and contaminant exposure through the lens of bioenergetics

Organisms face energetic challenges of climate change in combination with suites of natural and anthropogenic stressors. In particular, chemical contaminant exposure has neurotoxic, endocrine-disrupting, and behavioral effects which may additively or interactively combine with challenges associated with climate change. We used a literature review across animal taxa and contaminant classes, but focused on Arctic endotherms and contaminants important in Arctic ecosystems, to demonstrate potential for interactive effects across five bioenergetic domains: (1) energy supply, (2) energy demand, (3) energy storage, (4) energy allocation tradeoffs, and (5) energy management strategies; and involving four climate change-sensitive environmental stressors: changes in resource availability, temperature, predation risk, and parasitism. Identified examples included relatively equal numbers of synergistic and antagonistic interactions. Synergies are often suggested to be particularly problematic, since they magnify biological effects. However, we emphasize that antagonistic effects on bioenergetic traits can be equally problematic, since they can reflect dampening of beneficial responses and result in negative synergistic effects on fitness. Our review also highlights that empirical demonstrations remain limited, especially in endotherms. Elucidating the nature of climate change-by-contaminant interactive effects on bioenergetic traits will build toward determining overall outcomes for energy balance and fitness. Progressing to determine critical species, life stages, and target areas in which transformative effects arise will aid in forecasting broad-scale bioenergetic outcomes under global change scenarios.

Ecological impacts of climate change on Arctic marine megafauna

Global warming affects the Arctic more than any other region. Mass media constantly relay apocalyptic visions of climate change threatening Arctic wildlife, especially emblematic megafauna such as polar bears, whales, and seabirds. Yet, we are just beginning to understand such ecological impacts on marine megafauna at the scale of the Arctic. This knowledge is geographically and taxonomically biased, with striking deficiencies in the Russian Arctic and strong focus on exploited species such as cod. Beyond a synthesis of scientific advances in the past 5 years, we provide ten key questions to be addressed by future work and outline the requested methodology. This framework builds upon long-term Arctic monitoring inclusive of local communities whilst capitalising on high-tech and big data approaches.

Linking movement and dive data to prey distribution models: new insights in foraging behaviour and potential pitfalls of movement analyses

BACKGROUND

Animal movement data are regularly used to infer foraging behaviour and relationships to environmental characteristics, often to help identify critical habitat. To characterize foraging, movement models make a set of assumptions rooted in theory, for example, time spent foraging in an area increases with higher prey density.

METHODS

We assessed the validity of these assumptions by associating horizontal movement and diving of satellite-telemetered ringed seals (Pusa hispida)-an opportunistic predator-in Hudson Bay, Canada, to modelled prey data and environmental proxies.

RESULTS

Modelled prey biomass data performed better than their environmental proxies (e.g., sea surface temperature) for explaining seal movement; however movement was not related to foraging effort. Counter to theory, seals appeared to forage more in areas with relatively lower prey diversity and biomass, potentially due to reduced foraging efficiency in those areas.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study highlights the need to validate movement analyses with prey data to effectively estimate the relationship between prey availability and foraging behaviour.

Potential for redistribution of post-moult habitat for Eudyptes penguins in the Southern Ocean under future climate conditions

Anthropogenic climate change is resulting in spatial redistributions of many species. We assessed the potential effects of climate change on an abundant and widely distributed group of diving birds, Eudyptes penguins, which are the main avian consumers in the Southern Ocean in terms of biomass consumption. Despite their abundance, several of these species have undergone population declines over the past century, potentially due to changing oceanography and prey availability over the important winter months. We used light-based geolocation tracking data for 485 individuals deployed between 2006 and 2020 across 10 of the major breeding locations for five taxa of Eudyptes penguins. We used boosted regression tree modelling to quantify post-moult habitat preference for southern rockhopper (E. chrysocome), eastern rockhopper (E. filholi), northern rockhopper (E. moseleyi) and macaroni/royal (E. chrysolophus and E. schlegeli) penguins. We then modelled their redistribution under two climate change scenarios, representative concentration pathways RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (for the end of the century, 2071-2100). As climate forcings differ regionally, we quantified redistribution in the Atlantic, Central Indian, East Indian, West Pacific and East Pacific regions. We found sea surface temperature and sea surface height to be the most important predictors of current habitat for these penguins; physical features that are changing rapidly in the Southern Ocean. Our results indicated that the less severe RCP4.5 would lead to less habitat loss than the more severe RCP8.5. The five taxa of penguin may experience a general poleward redistribution of their preferred habitat, but with contrasting effects in the (i) change in total area of preferred habitat under climate change (ii) according to geographic region and (iii) the species (macaroni/royal vs. rockhopper populations). Our results provide further understanding on the regional impacts and vulnerability of species to climate change.

Accelerating animal energetics: High dive costs in a small seabird disrupt the dynamic body acceleration - energy expenditure relationship

Accelerometry has been widely used to estimate energy expenditure in a broad array of terrestrial and aquatic species. However, a recent reappraisal of the method showed that relationships between dynamic body acceleration (DBA) and energy expenditure weaken as the proportion of non-mechanical costs increase. Aquatic air breathing species often exemplify this pattern, as buoyancy, thermoregulation and other physiological mechanisms disproportionately affect oxygen consumption during dives. Combining biologging with the doubly-labelled water method, we simultaneously recorded daily energy expenditure (DEE) and triaxial acceleration in one of the world's smallest wing-propelled breath-hold divers, the dovekie (Alle alle). These data were used to estimate the activity-specific costs of flying and diving and to test whether overall dynamic body acceleration (ODBA) is a reliable predictor of DEE in this abundant seabird. Average DEE for chick-rearing dovekies was 604±119 kJ/d across both sampling years. Despite recording lower stroke frequencies for diving than for flying (in line with allometric predictions for auks), dive costs were estimated to surpass flight costs in our sample of birds (flying: 7.24, diving: 9.37 X BMR). As expected, ODBA was not an effective predictor of DEE in this species. However, accelerometer-derived time budgets did accurately estimate DEE in dovekies. This work represents an empirical example of how the apparent energetic costs of buoyancy and thermoregulation limit the effectiveness of ODBA as the sole predictor of overall energy expenditure in small shallow-diving endotherms.

Migratory vertebrates shift migration timing and distributions in a warming Arctic

Climate warming in the Arctic has led to warmer and earlier springs, and as a result, many food resources for migratory animals become available earlier in the season, as well as become distributed further northwards. To optimally profit from these resources, migratory animals are expected to arrive earlier in the Arctic, as well as shift their own spatial distributions northwards. Here, we review literature to assess whether Arctic migratory birds and mammals already show shifts in migration timing or distribution in response to the warming climate. Distribution shifts were most prominent in marine mammals, as expected from observed northward shifts of their resources. At least for many bird species, the ability to shift distributions is likely constrained by available habitat further north. Shifts in timing have been shown in many species of terrestrial birds and ungulates, as well as for polar bears. Within species, we found strong variation in shifts in timing and distributions between populations. Ou r review thus shows that many migratory animals display shifts in migration timing and spatial distribution in reaction to a warming Arctic. Importantly, we identify large knowledge gaps especially concerning distribution shifts and timing of autumn migration, especially for marine mammals. Our understanding of how migratory animals respond to climate change appears to be mostly limited by the lack of long-term monitoring studies.

North Atlantic winter cyclones starve seabirds

Each winter, the North Atlantic Ocean is the stage for numerous cyclones, the most severe ones leading to seabird mass-mortality events called "winter wrecks."^1-3 During these, thousands of emaciated seabird carcasses are washed ashore along European and North American coasts. Winter cyclones can therefore shape seabird population dynamics^4,5 by affecting survival rates as well as the body condition of surviving individuals and thus their future reproduction. However, most often the geographic origins of impacted seabirds and the causes of their deaths remain unclear.⁶ We performed the first ocean-basin scale assessment of cyclone exposure in a seabird community by coupling winter tracking data for ∼1,500 individuals of five key North Atlantic seabird species (Alle alle, Fratercula arctica, Uria aalge, Uria lomvia, and Rissa tridactyla) and cyclone locations. We then explored the energetic consequences of different cyclonic conditions using a mechanistic bioenergetics model⁷ and tested the hypothesis that cyclones dramatically increase seabird energy requirements. We demonstrated that cyclones of high intensity impacted birds from all studied species and breeding colonies during winter but especially those aggregating in the Labrador Sea, the Davis Strait, the surroundings of Iceland, and the Barents Sea. Our broad-scale analyses suggested that cyclonic conditions do not increase seabird energy requirements, implying that they die because of the unavailability of their prey and/or their inability to feed during cyclones. Our study provides essential information on seabird cyclone exposure in a context of marked cyclone regime changes due to global warming.⁸.