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Fay RL, Cruz-Loya M, Keyel AC, Price DC, Zink SD, Mordecai EA, Ciota AT. Population-specific thermal responses contribute to regional variability in arbovirus transmission with changing climates. iScience 2024; 27:109934. [PMID: 38799579 PMCID: PMC11126822 DOI: 10.1016/j.isci.2024.109934] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/26/2023] [Revised: 12/05/2023] [Accepted: 05/05/2024] [Indexed: 05/29/2024] Open
Abstract
Temperature is increasing globally, and vector-borne diseases are particularly responsive to such increases. While it is known that temperature influences mosquito life history traits, transmission models have not historically considered population-specific effects of temperature. We assessed the interaction between Culex pipiens population and temperature in New York State (NYS) and utilized novel empirical data to inform predictive models of West Nile virus (WNV) transmission. Genetically and regionally distinct populations from NYS were reared at various temperatures, and life history traits were monitored and used to inform trait-based models. Variation in Cx. pipiens life history traits and population-dependent thermal responses account for a predicted 2.9°C difference in peak transmission that is reflected in regional differences in WNV prevalence. We additionally identified genetic signatures that may contribute to distinct thermal responses. Together, these data demonstrate how population variation contributes to significant geographic variability in arbovirus transmission with changing climates.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rachel L. Fay
- Department of Biomedical Sciences, State University of New York at Albany School of Public Health, Rensselaer, NY, USA
- The Arbovirus Laboratory, Wadsworth Center, New York State Department of Health, Slingerlands, NY, USA
| | | | - Alexander C. Keyel
- The Arbovirus Laboratory, Wadsworth Center, New York State Department of Health, Slingerlands, NY, USA
| | - Dana C. Price
- Department of Entomology, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, NJ, USA
| | - Steve D. Zink
- The Arbovirus Laboratory, Wadsworth Center, New York State Department of Health, Slingerlands, NY, USA
| | | | - Alexander T. Ciota
- Department of Biomedical Sciences, State University of New York at Albany School of Public Health, Rensselaer, NY, USA
- The Arbovirus Laboratory, Wadsworth Center, New York State Department of Health, Slingerlands, NY, USA
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Wang HR, Liu T, Gao X, Wang HB, Xiao JH. Impact of climate change on the global circulation of West Nile virus and adaptation responses: a scoping review. Infect Dis Poverty 2024; 13:38. [PMID: 38790027 PMCID: PMC11127377 DOI: 10.1186/s40249-024-01207-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/03/2024] [Accepted: 05/17/2024] [Indexed: 05/26/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND West Nile virus (WNV), the most widely distributed flavivirus causing encephalitis globally, is a vector-borne pathogen of global importance. The changing climate is poised to reshape the landscape of various infectious diseases, particularly vector-borne ones like WNV. Understanding the anticipated geographical and range shifts in disease transmission due to climate change, alongside effective adaptation strategies, is critical for mitigating future public health impacts. This scoping review aims to consolidate evidence on the impact of climate change on WNV and to identify a spectrum of applicable adaptation strategies. MAIN BODY We systematically analyzed research articles from PubMed, Web of Science, Scopus, and EBSCOhost. Our criteria included English-language research articles published between 2007 and 2023, focusing on the impacts of climate change on WNV and related adaptation strategies. We extracted data concerning study objectives, populations, geographical focus, and specific findings. Literature was categorized into two primary themes: 1) climate-WNV associations, and 2) climate change impacts on WNV transmission, providing a clear understanding. Out of 2168 articles reviewed, 120 met our criteria. Most evidence originated from North America (59.2%) and Europe (28.3%), with a primary focus on human cases (31.7%). Studies on climate-WNV correlations (n = 83) highlighted temperature (67.5%) as a pivotal climate factor. In the analysis of climate change impacts on WNV (n = 37), most evidence suggested that climate change may affect the transmission and distribution of WNV, with the extent of the impact depending on local and regional conditions. Although few studies directly addressed the implementation of adaptation strategies for climate-induced disease transmission, the proposed strategies (n = 49) fell into six categories: 1) surveillance and monitoring (38.8%), 2) predictive modeling (18.4%), 3) cross-disciplinary collaboration (16.3%), 4) environmental management (12.2%), 5) public education (8.2%), and 6) health system readiness (6.1%). Additionally, we developed an accessible online platform to summarize the evidence on climate change impacts on WNV transmission ( https://2xzl2o-neaop.shinyapps.io/WNVScopingReview/ ). CONCLUSIONS This review reveals that climate change may affect the transmission and distribution of WNV, but the literature reflects only a small share of the global WNV dynamics. There is an urgent need for adaptive responses to anticipate and respond to the climate-driven spread of WNV. Nevertheless, studies focusing on these adaptation responses are sparse compared to those examining the impacts of climate change. Further research on the impacts of climate change and adaptation strategies for vector-borne diseases, along with more comprehensive evidence synthesis, is needed to inform effective policy responses tailored to local contexts.
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Affiliation(s)
- Hao-Ran Wang
- Department of Veterinary Surgery, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, 150030, Heilongjiang, People's Republic of China
- Heilongjiang Key Laboratory for Laboratory Animals and Comparative Medicine, College of Veterinary Medicine, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, 150030, Heilongjiang, People's Republic of China
| | - Tao Liu
- Department of Veterinary Surgery, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, 150030, Heilongjiang, People's Republic of China
- Heilongjiang Key Laboratory for Laboratory Animals and Comparative Medicine, College of Veterinary Medicine, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, 150030, Heilongjiang, People's Republic of China
| | - Xiang Gao
- Department of Veterinary Surgery, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, 150030, Heilongjiang, People's Republic of China
- Heilongjiang Key Laboratory for Laboratory Animals and Comparative Medicine, College of Veterinary Medicine, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, 150030, Heilongjiang, People's Republic of China
| | - Hong-Bin Wang
- Department of Veterinary Surgery, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, 150030, Heilongjiang, People's Republic of China
- Heilongjiang Key Laboratory for Laboratory Animals and Comparative Medicine, College of Veterinary Medicine, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, 150030, Heilongjiang, People's Republic of China
| | - Jian-Hua Xiao
- Department of Veterinary Surgery, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, 150030, Heilongjiang, People's Republic of China.
- Heilongjiang Key Laboratory for Laboratory Animals and Comparative Medicine, College of Veterinary Medicine, Northeast Agricultural University, Harbin, 150030, Heilongjiang, People's Republic of China.
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McCarter MSJ, Self S, Dye-Braumuller KC, Lee C, Li H, Nolan MS. The utility of a Bayesian predictive model to forecast neuroinvasive West Nile virus disease in the United States of America, 2022. PLoS One 2023; 18:e0290873. [PMID: 37682897 PMCID: PMC10490885 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0290873] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/30/2023] [Accepted: 08/17/2023] [Indexed: 09/10/2023] Open
Abstract
Arboviruses (arthropod-borne-viruses) are an emerging global health threat that are rapidly spreading as climate change, international business transport, and landscape fragmentation impact local ecologies. Since its initial detection in 1999, West Nile virus has shifted from being a novel to an established arbovirus in the United States of America. Subsequently, more than 25,000 cases of West Nile neuro-invasive disease have been diagnosed, cementing West Nile virus as an arbovirus of public health importance. Given its novelty in the United States of America, high-risk ecologies are largely underdefined making targeted population-level public health interventions challenging. Using the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ArboNET neuroinvasive West Nile virus data from 2000-2021, this study aimed to predict neuroinvasive West Nile virus human cases at the county level for the contiguous USA using a spatio-temporal Bayesian negative binomial regression model. The model includes environmental, climatic, and demographic factors, as well as the distribution of host species. An integrated nested Laplace approximation approach was used to fit our model. To assess model prediction accuracy, annual counts were withheld, forecasted, and compared to observed values. The validated models were then fit to the entire dataset for 2022 predictions. This proof-of-concept mathematical, geospatial modelling approach has proven utility for national health agencies seeking to allocate funding and other resources for local vector control agencies tackling West Nile virus and other notifiable arboviral agents.
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Affiliation(s)
- Maggie S. J. McCarter
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC, United States of America
| | - Stella Self
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC, United States of America
| | - Kyndall C. Dye-Braumuller
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC, United States of America
| | - Christopher Lee
- Department of Computer Science and Engineering, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC, United States of America
| | - Huixuan Li
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC, United States of America
| | - Melissa S. Nolan
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC, United States of America
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Wilke ABB, Damian D, Litvinova M, Byrne T, Zardini A, Poletti P, Merler S, Mutebi JP, Townsend J, Ajelli M. Spatiotemporal distribution of vector mosquito species and areas at risk for arbovirus transmission in Maricopa County, Arizona. Acta Trop 2023; 240:106833. [PMID: 36736524 DOI: 10.1016/j.actatropica.2023.106833] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/04/2022] [Revised: 01/08/2023] [Accepted: 01/10/2023] [Indexed: 02/04/2023]
Abstract
Mosquito-borne diseases are a major global public health concern and mosquito surveillance systems are essential for the implementation of effective mosquito control strategies. The objective of our study is to determine the spatiotemporal distribution of vector mosquito species in Maricopa County, AZ from 2011 to 2021, and to identify the hotspot areas for West Nile virus (WNV) and St. Louis Encephalitis virus (SLEV) transmission in 2021. The Maricopa County Mosquito Control surveillance system utilizes BG-Sentinel and EVS-CDC traps throughout the entire urban and suburban areas of the county. We estimated specific mosquito species relative abundance per unit area using the Kernel density estimator in ArcGIS 10.2. We calculated the distance between all traps in the surveillance system and created a 4 km buffer radius around each trap to calculate the extent to which each trap deviated from the mean number of Culex quinquefasciatus and Culex tarsalis collected in 2021. Our results show that vector mosquito species are widely distributed and abundant in the urban areas of Maricopa County. A total of 691,170Cx. quinquefasciatus, 542,733 Cx. tarsalis, and 292,305 Aedes aegypti were collected from 2011 to 2022. The relative abundance of Ae. aegypti was highly seasonal peaking in the third and fourth quarters of the year. Culex quinquefasciatus, on the other hand, was abundant throughout the year with several regions consistently yielding high numbers of mosquitoes. Culex tarsalis was abundant but it only reached high numbers in well-defined areas near irrigated landscapes. We also detected high levels of heterogeneity in the risk of WNV and SLEV transmission to humans disregarding traps geographical proximity. The well-defined species-specific spatiotemporal and geographical patterns found in this study can be used to inform vector control operations.
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Affiliation(s)
- André B B Wilke
- Laboratory for Computational Epidemiology and Public Health, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Indiana University School of Public Health, Bloomington, IN, USA.
| | - Dan Damian
- Maricopa County Environmental Services, Department Vector Control Division, Phoenix, AZ, USA
| | - Maria Litvinova
- Laboratory for Computational Epidemiology and Public Health, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Indiana University School of Public Health, Bloomington, IN, USA
| | - Thomas Byrne
- Center for Healthcare Organization and Implementation Research, VA Bedford Healthcare System, Bedford, MA, USA; Boston University School of Social Work, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Agnese Zardini
- Center for Health Emergencies, Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy
| | - Piero Poletti
- Center for Health Emergencies, Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy
| | - Stefano Merler
- Center for Health Emergencies, Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy
| | - John-Paul Mutebi
- Arboviral Diseases Branch (ADB), Division of Vector-Borne Diseases (DVBD), Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Fort Collins, CO, USA
| | - John Townsend
- Maricopa County Environmental Services, Department Vector Control Division, Phoenix, AZ, USA
| | - Marco Ajelli
- Laboratory for Computational Epidemiology and Public Health, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Indiana University School of Public Health, Bloomington, IN, USA.
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Keyel AC. Patterns of West Nile Virus in the Northeastern United States Using Negative Binomial and Mechanistic Trait-Based Models. GEOHEALTH 2023; 7:e2022GH000747. [PMID: 37026081 PMCID: PMC10072317 DOI: 10.1029/2022gh000747] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/10/2022] [Revised: 02/28/2023] [Accepted: 03/11/2023] [Indexed: 06/19/2023]
Abstract
West Nile virus (WNV) primarily infects birds and mosquitoes but has also caused over 2,000 human deaths, and >50,000 reported human cases in the United States. Expected numbers of WNV neuroinvasive cases for the present were described for the Northeastern United States, using a negative binomial model. Changes in temperature-based suitability for WNV due to climate change were examined for the next decade using a temperature-trait model. WNV suitability was generally expected to increase over the next decade due to changes in temperature, but the changes in suitability were generally small. Many, but not all, populous counties in the northeast are already near peak suitability. Several years in a row of low case numbers is consistent with a negative binomial, and should not be interpreted as a change in disease dynamics. Public health budgets need to be prepared for the expected infrequent years with higher-than-average cases. Low-population counties that have not yet had a case are expected to have similar probabilities of having a new case as nearby low-population counties with cases, as these absences are consistent with a single statistical distribution and random chance.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alexander C. Keyel
- Division of Infectious DiseasesWadsworth CenterNew York State Department of HealthAlbanyNYUSA
- Department of Atmospheric and Environmental SciencesUniversity at AlbanySUNYAlbanyNYUSA
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Keyel AC, Gorris ME, Rochlin I, Uelmen JA, Chaves LF, Hamer GL, Moise IK, Shocket M, Kilpatrick AM, DeFelice NB, Davis JK, Little E, Irwin P, Tyre AJ, Helm Smith K, Fredregill CL, Elison Timm O, Holcomb KM, Wimberly MC, Ward MJ, Barker CM, Rhodes CG, Smith RL. A proposed framework for the development and qualitative evaluation of West Nile virus models and their application to local public health decision-making. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2021; 15:e0009653. [PMID: 34499656 PMCID: PMC8428767 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0009653] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/07/2023] Open
Abstract
West Nile virus (WNV) is a globally distributed mosquito-borne virus of great public health concern. The number of WNV human cases and mosquito infection patterns vary in space and time. Many statistical models have been developed to understand and predict WNV geographic and temporal dynamics. However, these modeling efforts have been disjointed with little model comparison and inconsistent validation. In this paper, we describe a framework to unify and standardize WNV modeling efforts nationwide. WNV risk, detection, or warning models for this review were solicited from active research groups working in different regions of the United States. A total of 13 models were selected and described. The spatial and temporal scales of each model were compared to guide the timing and the locations for mosquito and virus surveillance, to support mosquito vector control decisions, and to assist in conducting public health outreach campaigns at multiple scales of decision-making. Our overarching goal is to bridge the existing gap between model development, which is usually conducted as an academic exercise, and practical model applications, which occur at state, tribal, local, or territorial public health and mosquito control agency levels. The proposed model assessment and comparison framework helps clarify the value of individual models for decision-making and identifies the appropriate temporal and spatial scope of each model. This qualitative evaluation clearly identifies gaps in linking models to applied decisions and sets the stage for a quantitative comparison of models. Specifically, whereas many coarse-grained models (county resolution or greater) have been developed, the greatest need is for fine-grained, short-term planning models (m-km, days-weeks) that remain scarce. We further recommend quantifying the value of information for each decision to identify decisions that would benefit most from model input.
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Affiliation(s)
- Alexander C. Keyel
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Wadsworth Center, New York State Department of Health, Albany, New York, United States of America
- Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, University at Albany, Albany, New York, United States of America
| | - Morgan E. Gorris
- Information Systems and Modeling & Center for Nonlinear Studies, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico, United States of America
| | - Ilia Rochlin
- Center for Vector Biology, Rutgers University, New Brunswick, New Jersey, United States of America
| | - Johnny A. Uelmen
- Department of Pathobiology, College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, Illinois, United States of America
| | - Luis F. Chaves
- Instituto Costarricense de Investigación y Enseñanza en Nutrición y Salud (INCIENSA), Tres Rios, Cartago, Costa Rica
| | - Gabriel L. Hamer
- Department of Entomology, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas, United States of America
| | - Imelda K. Moise
- Department of Geography & Regional Studies, University of Miami, Coral Gables, Florida, United States of America
| | - Marta Shocket
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Los Angeles, California, United States of America
| | - A. Marm Kilpatrick
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America
| | - Nicholas B. DeFelice
- Department of Environmental Medicine and Public Health, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, New York, United States of America
- Institute for Exposomic Research, Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, New York, New York, United States of America
- Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, New York, United States of America
| | - Justin K. Davis
- Department of Geography and Environmental Sustainability, University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma, United States of America
| | - Eliza Little
- Connecticut Agricultural Experimental Station, New Haven, Connecticut, United States of America
| | - Patrick Irwin
- Northwest Mosquito Abatement District, Wheeling, Illinois, United States of America
- Department of Entomology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, United States of America
| | - Andrew J. Tyre
- School of Natural Resources, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Lincoln, Nebraska, United States of America
| | - Kelly Helm Smith
- National Drought Mitigation Center, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Lincoln, Nebraska, United States of America
| | - Chris L. Fredregill
- Mosquito and Vector Control Division, Harris County Public Health, Houston, Texas, United States of America
| | - Oliver Elison Timm
- Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, University at Albany, Albany, New York, United States of America
| | - Karen M. Holcomb
- Department of Pathology, Microbiology, and Immunology, University of California Davis, California, United States of America
| | - Michael C. Wimberly
- Department of Geography and Environmental Sustainability, University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma, United States of America
| | - Matthew J. Ward
- Environmental Analytics Group, Universities Space Research Association, NASA Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, California, United States of America
- Department of Tropical Medicine, Tulane University School of Public Health & Tropical Medicine, New Orleans, Louisiana, United States of America
| | - Christopher M. Barker
- Department of Pathology, Microbiology, and Immunology, University of California Davis, California, United States of America
| | - Charlotte G. Rhodes
- Department of Entomology, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas, United States of America
| | - Rebecca L. Smith
- Department of Pathobiology, College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Urbana, Illinois, United States of America
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