Modelling the impact of an HIV testing intervention on HIV transmission among men who have sex with men in China

A Comparison of Mobile Social Media Promotion and Volunteer-Driven Strategies for Community Organizations Recruiting Men Who Have Sex with Men for HIV Testing in Zhejiang Province, China: Cross-Sectional Study Based on a Large-Scale Survey

BACKGROUND

China has recently implemented a strategy to promote and facilitate community organization involvement in HIV prevention among men who have sex with men (MSM). Although community-based strategies have been shown to increase HIV testing uptake, the relative effectiveness of mobile social media promotion compared with volunteer-driven recruitment remains underexplored. Limited research has investigated how these strategies differentially affect MSM who have not undergone previous HIV testing.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to compare the differences between a mobile social media promotion strategy and a volunteer-driven strategy for community organizations to recruit MSM for HIV testing.

METHODS

A cross-sectional study was conducted from July to December 2023 among MSM in Zhejiang Province, China. Participants aged 16 years with an HIV-negative or unknown status were recruited either through a mobile social media promotion strategy or through a volunteer-driven strategy by a community organization. They completed a questionnaire that collected information on demographics, sexual behavior, and HIV testing history. All participants were tested for HIV after completing the questionnaire. A multivariate logistic regression model was used to identify factors associated with recruitment through mobile social media promotion.

RESULTS

The study included 4600 MSM, of whom 3035 (66%) were recruited through the mobile social media strategy. Overall, 1.4% (66/4600) of participants tested positive for HIV, and 18.8% (865/4600) underwent HIV testing for the first time. Recruitment via the mobile social media promotion strategy was significantly associated with several factors: having only gay sexual partners (adjusted OR [aOR] 1.23, 95% CI 1.05-1.45), having more than 2 sexual partners in the past 3 months (aOR 1.74, 95% CI 1.42-2.11), frequently using rush poppers during sex (aOR 1.39, 95% CI 1.14-1.99), having a history of sexually transmitted infections (aOR 1.56, 95% CI 1.02-2.39), having awareness of pre-exposure prophylaxis (aOR 1.42, 95% CI 1.19-1.71), having awareness of postexposure prophylaxis (PEP; aOR 1.49, 95% CI 1.24-1.79), using mail-in HIV self-testing kits (aOR 2.02, 95% CI 1.77-2.31), testing HIV-positive (aOR 2.02, 95% CI 1.10-3.72), and first-time HIV testing (aOR 1.28, 95% CI 1.09-1.52).

CONCLUSIONS

Community organizations play a critical role in expanding HIV testing and identifying undiagnosed individuals infected with HIV. Compared to the volunteer-driven outreach, mobile social media promotion strategies had a higher proportion of first-time testers and a higher rate of HIV positivity. We recommend prioritizing mobile social media strategies in regions with limited LGBTQ+ organizations or HIV health services to increase HIV testing coverage and interventions among MSM.

New sexually transmitted HIV infections from 2016 to 2050 in Guangdong Province, China: a study based on a dynamic compartmental model

BACKGROUND

In Guangdong Province, China, there is lack of information on the HIV epidemic among high-risk groups and the general population, particularly in relation to sexual transmission, which is a predominant route. The new HIV infections each year is also uncertain owing to HIV transmission from men who have sex with men (MSM) to women, as a substantial proportion of MSM also have female sexual partnerships to comply with social demands in China.

METHODS

A deterministic compartmental model was developed to predict new HIV infections in four risk groups, including heterosexual men and women and low- and high-risk MSM, in Guangdong Province from 2016 to 2050, considering HIV transmission from MSM to women. The new HIV infections and its 95% credible interval (CrI) were predicted. An adaptive sequential Monte Carlo method for approximate Bayesian computation (ABC-SMC) was used to estimate the unknown parameter, a mixing index. We calibrated our results based on new HIV diagnoses and proportions of late diagnoses. The Morris and Sobol methods were applied in the sensitivity analysis.

RESULTS

New HIV infections increased during and 2 years after the COVID-19 pandemic, then declined until 2050. New infections rose from 8,828 [95% credible interval (CrI): 6,435-10,451] in 2016 to 9,652 (95% CrI: 7,027-11,434) in 2019, peaking at 11,152 (95% CrI: 8,337-13,062) in 2024 before declining to 7,084 (95% CrI: 5,165-8,385) in 2035 and 4,849 (95% CrI: 3,524-5,747) in 2050. Women accounted for approximately 25.0% of new HIV infections, MSM accounted for 40.0% (approximately 55.0% of men), and high-risk MSM accounted for approximately 25.0% of the total. The ABC-SMC mixing index was 0.504 (95% CrI: 0.239-0.894).

CONCLUSIONS

Given that new HIV infections and the proportion of women were relatively high in our calibrated model, to some extent, the HIV epidemic in Guangdong Province remains serious, and services for HIV prevention and control are urgently needed to return to the levels before the COVID-19 epidemic, especially in promoting condom-based safe sex and increasing awareness of HIV prevention to general population.

Economic evaluation of improving HIV self-testing among MSM in China using a crowdsourced intervention: a cost-effectiveness analysis

OBJECTIVES

Crowdsourcing, which taps into the wisdom of crowds, has been successful in generating strategies to enhance HIV self-testing (HIVST) uptake. We determined the cost-effectiveness of a crowdsourced intervention (one-off or annual) compared with a control scenario (no crowdsourcing) among MSM living in China.

DESIGN

Economic evaluation.

METHODS

We used data from our cluster randomized controlled trial of MSM (NCT02796963). We used a micro-costing approach to measure direct health costs ($USD2017) from a health provider perspective. Using outputs from a dynamic transmission model over a 20-year time horizon, we estimated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios using cost per disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted with 3% discounting. An intervention was considered highly cost-effective if it was less than one gross domestic product (GDP, $8823) per DALY averted.

RESULTS

Across all cities, the crowdsourced intervention was highly cost-effective compared with the control scenario (incremental cost-effectiveness ratios ranged from $2263 to 6152 per DALY averted for annual crowdsourcing; $171 to 204 per DALY averted for one-off crowdsourcing). The one-off intervention was cost-saving in Guangzhou and Qingdao. Sensitivity analyses confirmed the robustness of the findings; specifically, changes in discounting, costs of the crowdsourced intervention, costs of HIV testing and cost of antiretroviral therapy did not alter our conclusions.

CONCLUSION

Scaling up a one-off or annual crowdsourced HIV prevention intervention in four cities in China was very likely to be cost-effective. Further research is warranted to evaluate the feasibility of scaling up crowdsourced HIV prevention interventions in other settings and populations.

Modelling the geographical spread of HIV among MSM in Guangdong, China: a metapopulation model considering the impact of pre-exposure prophylaxis

Men who have sex with men (MSM) make up the majority of new human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) diagnoses among young people in China. Understanding HIV transmission dynamics among the MSM population is, therefore, crucial for the control and prevention of HIV infections, especially for some newly reported genotypes of HIV. This study presents a metapopulation model considering the impact of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) to investigate the geographical spread of a hypothetically new genotype of HIV among MSM in Guangdong, China. We use multiple data sources to construct this model to characterize the behavioural dynamics underlying the spread of HIV within and between 21 prefecture-level cities (i.e. Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Foshan, etc.) in Guangdong province: the online social network via a gay social networking app, the offline human mobility network via the Baidu mobility website, and self-reported sexual behaviours among MSM. Results show that PrEP initiation exponentially delays the occurrence of the virus for the rest of the cities transmitted from the initial outbreak city; hubs on the movement network, such as Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Foshan are at a higher risk of 'earliest' exposure to the new HIV genotype; most cities acquire the virus directly from the initial outbreak city while others acquire the virus from cities that are not initial outbreak locations and have relatively high betweenness centralities, such as Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Shantou. This study provides insights in predicting the geographical spread of a new genotype of HIV among an MSM population from different regions and assessing the importance of prefecture-level cities in the control and prevention of HIV in Guangdong province. This article is part of the theme issue 'Data science approach to infectious disease surveillance'.

The impact of disruptions due to COVID-19 on HIV transmission and control among men who have sex with men in China

INTRODUCTION

The COVID-19 pandemic is impacting HIV care globally, with gaps in HIV treatment expected to increase HIV transmission and HIV-related mortality. We estimated how COVID-19-related disruptions could impact HIV transmission and mortality among men who have sex with men (MSM) in four cities in China, over a one- and five-year time horizon.

METHODS

Regional data from China indicated that the number of MSM undergoing facility-based HIV testing reduced by 59% during the COVID-19 pandemic, alongside reductions in ART initiation (34%), numbers of all sexual partners (62%) and consistency of condom use (25%), but initial data indicated no change in viral suppression. A mathematical model of HIV transmission/treatment among MSM was used to estimate the impact of disruptions on HIV infections/HIV-related deaths. Disruption scenarios were assessed for their individual and combined impact over one and five years for 3/4/6-month disruption periods, starting from 1 January 2020.

RESULTS

Our model predicted new HIV infections and HIV-related deaths would be increased most by disruptions to viral suppression, with 25% reductions (25% virally suppressed MSM stop taking ART) for a three-month period increasing HIV infections by 5% to 14% over one year and deaths by 7% to 12%. Observed reductions in condom use increased HIV infections by 5% to 14% but had minimal impact (<1%) on deaths. Smaller impacts on infections and deaths (<3%) were seen for disruptions to facility HIV testing and ART initiation, but reduced partner numbers resulted in 11% to 23% fewer infections and 0.4% to 1.0% fewer deaths. Longer disruption periods (4/6 months) amplified the impact of disruption scenarios. When realistic disruptions were modelled simultaneously, an overall decrease in new HIV infections occurred over one year (3% to 17%), but not for five years (1% increase to 4% decrease), whereas deaths mostly increased over one year (1% to 2%) and five years (1.2 increase to 0.3 decrease).

CONCLUSIONS

The overall impact of COVID-19 on new HIV infections and HIV-related deaths is dependent on the nature, scale and length of the various disruptions. Resources should be directed to ensuring levels of viral suppression and condom use are maintained to mitigate any adverse effects of COVID-19-related disruption on HIV transmission and control among MSM in China.

Estimating the impact of disruptions due to COVID-19 on HIV transmission and control among men who have sex with men in China

Introduction The COVID-19 pandemic is impacting HIV care globally, with gaps in HIV treatment expected to increase HIV transmission and HIV-related mortality. We estimated how COVID-19-related disruptions could impact HIV transmission and mortality among men who have sex with men (MSM) in four cities in China. Methods Regional data from China indicated that the number of MSM undergoing facility-based HIV testing reduced by 59% during the COVID-19 pandemic, alongside reductions in ART initiation (34%), numbers of sexual partners (62%) and consistency of condom use (25%). A deterministic mathematical model of HIV transmission and treatment among MSM in China was used to estimate the impact of these disruptions on the number of new HIV infections and HIV-related deaths. Disruption scenarios were assessed for their individual and combined impact over 1 and 5 years for a 3-, 4- or 6-month disruption period. Results Our China model predicted that new HIV infections and HIV-related deaths would be increased most by disruptions to viral suppression, with 25% reductions for a 3-month period increasing HIV infections by 5-14% over 1 year and deaths by 7-12%. Observed reductions in condom use increased HIV infections by 5-14% but had minimal impact (<1%) on deaths. Smaller impacts on infections and deaths (<3%) were seen for disruptions to facility testing and ART initiation, but reduced partner numbers resulted in 11-23% fewer infections and 0.4-1.0% fewer deaths. Longer disruption periods of 4 and 6 months amplified the impact of combined disruption scenarios. When all realistic disruptions were modelled simultaneously, an overall decrease in new HIV infections was always predicted over one year (3-17%), but not over 5 years (1% increase - 4% decrease), while deaths mostly increased over one year (1-2%) and 5 years (1.2 increase - 0.3 decrease). Conclusions The overall impact of COVID-19 on new HIV infections and HIV-related deaths is dependent on the nature, scale and length of the various disruptions. Resources should be directed to ensuring levels of viral suppression and condom use are maintained to mitigate any adverse effects of COVID-19 related disruption on HIV transmission and control among MSM in China.