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Crozier LG, McClure MM, Beechie T, Bograd SJ, Boughton DA, Carr M, Cooney TD, Dunham JB, Greene CM, Haltuch MA, Hazen EL, Holzer DM, Huff DD, Johnson RC, Jordan CE, Kaplan IC, Lindley ST, Mantua NJ, Moyle PB, Myers JM, Nelson MW, Spence BC, Weitkamp LA, Williams TH, Willis-Norton E. Climate vulnerability assessment for Pacific salmon and steelhead in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem. PLoS One 2019; 14:e0217711. [PMID: 31339895 PMCID: PMC6655584 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0217711] [Citation(s) in RCA: 42] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/05/2019] [Accepted: 05/16/2019] [Indexed: 12/25/2022] Open
Abstract
Major ecological realignments are already occurring in response to climate change. To be successful, conservation strategies now need to account for geographical patterns in traits sensitive to climate change, as well as climate threats to species-level diversity. As part of an effort to provide such information, we conducted a climate vulnerability assessment that included all anadromous Pacific salmon and steelhead (Oncorhynchus spp.) population units listed under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Using an expert-based scoring system, we ranked 20 attributes for the 28 listed units and 5 additional units. Attributes captured biological sensitivity, or the strength of linkages between each listing unit and the present climate; climate exposure, or the magnitude of projected change in local environmental conditions; and adaptive capacity, or the ability to modify phenotypes to cope with new climatic conditions. Each listing unit was then assigned one of four vulnerability categories. Units ranked most vulnerable overall were Chinook (O. tshawytscha) in the California Central Valley, coho (O. kisutch) in California and southern Oregon, sockeye (O. nerka) in the Snake River Basin, and spring-run Chinook in the interior Columbia and Willamette River Basins. We identified units with similar vulnerability profiles using a hierarchical cluster analysis. Life history characteristics, especially freshwater and estuary residence times, interplayed with gradations in exposure from south to north and from coastal to interior regions to generate landscape-level patterns within each species. Nearly all listing units faced high exposures to projected increases in stream temperature, sea surface temperature, and ocean acidification, but other aspects of exposure peaked in particular regions. Anthropogenic factors, especially migration barriers, habitat degradation, and hatchery influence, have reduced the adaptive capacity of most steelhead and salmon populations. Enhancing adaptive capacity is essential to mitigate for the increasing threat of climate change. Collectively, these results provide a framework to support recovery planning that considers climate impacts on the majority of West Coast anadromous salmonids.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lisa G. Crozier
- Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
- * E-mail:
| | - Michelle M. McClure
- Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Tim Beechie
- Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Steven J. Bograd
- Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Monterey, California, United States of America
| | - David A. Boughton
- Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America
| | - Mark Carr
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America
| | - Thomas D. Cooney
- Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Jason B. Dunham
- Forest & Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center, U.S. Geological Survey, Corvallis, Oregon, United States of America
| | - Correigh M. Greene
- Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Melissa A. Haltuch
- Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Elliott L. Hazen
- Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Monterey, California, United States of America
| | - Damon M. Holzer
- Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - David D. Huff
- Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Rachel C. Johnson
- Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America
- Center for Watershed Sciences, University of California, Davis, California, United States of America
| | - Chris E. Jordan
- Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Isaac C. Kaplan
- Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Steven T. Lindley
- Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America
| | - Nathan J. Mantua
- Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America
| | - Peter B. Moyle
- Department of Wildlife, Fish and Conservation Biology, University of California, Davis, California, United States of America
| | - James M. Myers
- Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Mark W. Nelson
- ECS Federal, Inc. Under Contract to Office of Sustainable Fisheries, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring, Maryland, United States of America
| | - Brian C. Spence
- Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America
| | - Laurie A. Weitkamp
- Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Seattle, Washington, United States of America
| | - Thomas H. Williams
- Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America
| | - Ellen Willis-Norton
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Santa Cruz, California, United States of America
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Fullerton AH, Burke BJ, Lawler JJ, Torgersen CE, Ebersole JL, Leibowitz SG. Simulated juvenile salmon growth and phenology respond to altered thermal regimes and stream network shape. Ecosphere 2017; 8:1-23. [PMID: 29552374 DOI: 10.1002/ecs2.2052] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Abstract
It is generally accepted that climate change will stress coldwater species like Pacific salmon. However, it is unclear what aspect of altered thermal regimes (e.g., warmer winters, springs, summers, or increased variability) will have the greatest effect, and what role the spatial properties of river networks play. Thermally diverse habitats may afford protection from climate change by providing opportunities for aquatic organisms to find and use habitats with optimal conditions for growth. We hypothesized that climate-altered thermal regimes will change growth and timing of life history events such as emergence or migration but that changes will be moderated in topologically complex stream networks where opportunities to thermoregulate are more readily available to mobile animals. Because climate change effects on populations are spatially variable and contingent upon physiological optima, assessments of risk must take a spatially explicit approach. We developed a spatially-structured individual based model for Chinook Salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) in which movement decisions and growth were governed by water temperature and conspecific density. We evaluated growth and phenology (timing of egg emergence and smolting) under a variety of thermal regimes (each having a different minimum, rate of warming, maximum, and variability) and in three network shapes of increasing spatial complexity. Across networks, fish generally grew faster and were capable of smolting earlier in warmer scenarios where water temperatures experienced by fish were closer to optimal; however, growth decreased for some fish. We found that salmon size and smolt date responded more strongly to warmer springs and summers than to warmer winters or increased variability. Fish in the least complex network grew faster and were ready to smolt earlier than fish in the more spatially complex network shapes in the contemporary thermal regime; patterns were similar but less clear in warmer thermal regimes. Our results demonstrate that network topology may influence how fish respond to thermal landscapes, and this information will be useful for incorporating a spatiotemporal context into conservation decisions that promote long-term viability of salmon in a changing climate.
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Affiliation(s)
- Aimee H Fullerton
- Fish Ecology Division, Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, NOAA, 2725 Montlake Blvd E, Seattle WA, 98112, USA
| | - Brian J Burke
- Fish Ecology Division, Northwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, NOAA, 2725 Montlake Blvd E, Seattle WA, 98112, USA
| | - Joshua J Lawler
- School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, University of Washington, Box 352100, Seattle, WA, 98195-2100, USA
| | - Christian E Torgersen
- U.S. Geological Survey, Forest and Rangeland Ecosystem Science Center, Cascadia Field Station, University of Washington, Box 352100, Seattle, WA, 98195-2100, USA
| | - Joseph L Ebersole
- National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory, Western Ecology Division, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 200 SW 35 St., Corvallis, OR, 97333, USA
| | - Scott G Leibowitz
- National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory, Western Ecology Division, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 200 SW 35 St., Corvallis, OR, 97333, USA
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