The effect of the El Niño Southern Oscillation on the reproductive frequency of eastern Pacific leatherback turtles

Evidence to inform spatiotemporal management of a western Pacific Ocean tuna purse seine fishery

Fisheries can profoundly impact co-occurring species exposed to incidental capture. Spatiotemporal fisheries management holds substantial potential to balance socioeconomic benefits with ecological costs to threatened bycatch species. This study estimated the effect of the spatial and temporal distribution of effort by a western Pacific Ocean tuna purse seine fishery on catch rates of target and at-risk species by fitting spatially explicit generalized additive multilevel regression models within a Bayesian inference framework to observer data. Mean field prediction surfaces defined catch rate hotspots for tunas, silky sharks, rays, and whale sharks, informing the design of candidate area-based management strategies. Due to limited sample sizes, odontocete and marine turtle catch rate geospatial patterns were summarized using simple 2D hexagonal binning. Effort could be focused in two areas within core fishing grounds to reduce overlap with hotspots for silky sharks, rays, and whale sharks without affecting target catch. Effort could be shifted outside of core fishing areas to zones with higher target tuna catch rates to reduce overlap with hotspots for at-risk species. Sparse and small marine turtle and whale shark hotspots occurred across the fishing grounds. Results did not identify opportunities for temporally dynamic spatial management to balance target and at-risk catch rates. Research on the economic and operational viability of alternative spatial management strategies is a priority. A small subset of sets had disproportionately large odontocete captures. Real-time fleet communication, move-on rules, and avoiding sets on dolphin schools might reduce odontocete catch rates. Managing set association type and mesh size present additional opportunities to balance catch rates of at-risk and target species. Employing output controls that effectively constrain the fishery would alter the spatial management strategy to focus fishing within zones with the lowest ratio of at-risk bycatch to target tuna catch. Findings inform the design of alternative spatial management strategies to avoid catch rate hotspots of at-risk species without compromising the catch of principal market species.

Pest population dynamics are related to a continental overwintering gradient

Overwintering success is an important determinant of arthropod populations that must be considered as climate change continues to influence the spatiotemporal population dynamics of agricultural pests. Using a long-term monitoring database and biologically relevant overwintering zones, we modeled the annual and seasonal population dynamics of a common pest, Helicoverpa zea (Boddie), based on three overwintering suitability zones throughout North America using four decades of soil temperatures: the southern range (able to persist through winter), transitional zone (uncertain overwintering survivorship), and northern limits (unable to survive winter). Our model indicates H. zea population dynamics are hierarchically structured with continental-level effects that are partitioned into three geographic zones. Seasonal populations were initially detected in the southern range, where they experienced multiple large population peaks. All three zones experienced a final peak between late July (southern range) and mid-August to mid-September (transitional zone and northern limits). The southern range expanded by 3% since 1981 and is projected to increase by twofold by 2099 but the areas of other zones are expected to decrease in the future. These changes suggest larger populations may persist at higher latitudes in the future due to reduced low-temperature lethal events during winter. Because H. zea is a highly migratory pest, predicting when populations accumulate in one region can inform synchronous or lagged population development in other regions. We show the value of combining long-term datasets, remotely sensed data, and laboratory findings to inform forecasting of insect pests.

Causes and consequences of individual variation in animal movement

Animal movement comes in a variety of 'types' including small foraging movements, larger one-way dispersive movements, seasonally-predictable round-trip migratory movements, and erratic nomadic movements. Although most individuals move at some point throughout their lives, movement patterns can vary widely across individuals within the same species: differing within an individual over time (intra-individual), among individuals in the same population (inter-individual), or among populations (inter-population). Yet, studies of movement (theoretical and empirical alike) more often focus on understanding 'typical' movement patterns than understanding variation in movement. Here, I synthesize current knowledge of movement variation (drawing parallels across species and movement types), describing the causes (what factors contribute to individual variation), patterns (what movement variation looks like), consequences (why variation matters), maintenance (why variation persists), implications (for management and conservation), and finally gaps (what pieces we are currently missing). By synthesizing across scales of variation, I span across work on plasticity, personality, and geographic variation. Individual movement can be driven by factors that act at the individual, population, community and ecosystem level and have ramifications at each of these levels. Generally the consequences of movement are less well understood than the causes, in part because the effects of movement variation are often nested, with variation manifesting at the population level, which in turn affects communities and ecosystems. Understanding both cause and consequence is particularly important for predicting when variation begets variation in a positive feedback loop, versus when a negative feedback causes variation to be dampened successively. Finally, maintaining standing variation in movement may be important for facilitating species' ability to respond to future environmental change.

Population recovery changes population composition at a major southern Caribbean juvenile developmental habitat for the green turtle, Chelonia mydas

Understanding the population composition and dynamics of migratory megafauna at key developmental habitats is critical for conservation and management. The present study investigated whether differential recovery of Caribbean green turtle (Chelonia mydas) rookeries influenced population composition at a major juvenile feeding ground in the southern Caribbean (Lac Bay, Bonaire, Caribbean Netherlands) using genetic and demographic analyses. Genetic divergence indicated a strong temporal shift in population composition between 2006-2007 and 2015-2016 (ϕ_ST = 0.101, P < 0.001). Juvenile recruitment (<75.0 cm straight carapace length; SCL) from the north-western Caribbean increased from 12% to 38% while recruitment from the eastern Caribbean region decreased from 46% to 20% between 2006-2007 and 2015-2016. Furthermore, the product of the population growth rate and adult female abundance was a significant predictor for population composition in 2015-2016. Our results may reflect early warning signals of declining reproductive output at eastern Caribbean rookeries, potential displacement effects of smaller rookeries by larger rookeries, and advocate for genetic monitoring as a useful method for monitoring trends in juvenile megafauna. Furthermore, these findings underline the need for adequate conservation of juvenile developmental habitats and a deeper understanding of the interactions between megafaunal population dynamics in different habitats.

Fathoming sea turtles: monitoring strategy evaluation to improve conservation status assessments

Population monitoring must be accurate and reliable to correctly classify population status. For sea turtles, nesting beach surveys are often the only population-level surveys that are accessible. However, process and observation errors, compounded by delayed maturity, obscure the relationship between trends on the nesting beach and the population. We present a simulation-based tool, monitoring strategy evaluation (MoSE), to test the relationships between monitoring data and assessment accuracy, using green sea turtles, Chelonia mydas, as a case study. To explore this first application of MoSE, we apply different treatments of population impacts to virtual true populations, and sample the nests or nesters, with observation error, to test if the observation data can be used to diagnose population status accurately. Based on the observed data, we examine population trend and compare it to the known values from the operating model. We ran a series of scenarios including harvest impacts, cyclical breeding probability, and sampling biases, to see how these factors impact accuracy in estimating population trend. We explored the necessary duration of monitoring for accurate trend estimation and the probability of a false trend diagnosis. Our results suggest that disturbance type and severity can have important and persistent effects on the accuracy of population assessments drawn from monitoring nesting beaches. The underlying population phase, age classes disturbed, and impact severity influenced the accuracy of estimating population trend. At least 10 yr of monitoring data is necessary to estimate population trend accurately, and >20 yr if juvenile age classes were disturbed and the population is recovering. In general, there is a greater probability of making a false positive trend diagnosis than a false negative, but this depends on impact type and severity, population phase, and sampling duration. Improving detection rates to 90% does little to lower probability of a false trend diagnosis with shorter monitoring spans. Altogether, monitoring strategies for specific populations may be tailored based on the impact history, population phase, and environmental drivers. The MoSE is an important framework for analysis through simulation that can comprehensively test population assessments for accuracy and inform policy recommendations regarding the best monitoring strategies.

Densities and drivers of sea turtle populations across Pacific coral reef ecosystems

Sea turtle populations are often assessed at the regional to sub-basin scale from discrete indices of nesting abundance. While this may be practical and sometimes effective, widespread in-water surveys may enhance assessments by including additional demographics, locations, and revealing emerging population trends. Here, we describe sea turtle observations from 13 years of towed-diver surveys across 53 coral islands, atolls, and reefs in the Central, West, and South Pacific. These surveys covered more than 7,300 linear km, and observed more than 3,400 green (Chelonia mydas) and hawksbill (Eretmochelys imbricata) sea turtles. From these data, we estimated sea turtle densities, described trends across space and time, and modelled the influence of environmental and anthropogenic drivers. Both species were patchily distributed across spatial scales, and green turtles were 11 times more abundant than hawksbills. The Pacific Remote Island Areas had the highest densities of greens (3.62 turtles km-1, Jarvis Island), while American Samoa had the most hawksbills (0.12 turtles km-1, Ta'u Island). The Hawaiian Islands had the lowest turtle densities (island ave = 0.07 turtles km-1) yet the highest annual population growth (μ = 0.08, σ = 0.22), suggesting extensive management protections can yield positive conservation results. Densities peaked at 27.5°C SST, in areas of high productivity and low human impact, and were consistent with patterns of historic overexploitation. Though such intensive surveys have great value, they are logistically demanding and therefore have an uncertain budget and programmatic future. We hope the methods we described here may be applied to future comparatively low-cost surveys either with autonomous vehicles or with environmental DNA.

Long-term trends in the foraging ecology and habitat use of an endangered species: an isotopic perspective

Evaluating long-term drivers of foraging ecology and population productivity is crucial for providing ecological baselines and forecasting species responses to future environmental conditions. Here, we examine the trophic ecology and habitat use of North Atlantic leatherback turtles (St. Croix nesting population) and investigate the effects of large-scale oceanographic conditions on leatherback foraging dynamics. We used bulk and compound-specific nitrogen isotope analysis of amino acids (CSIA-AA) to estimate leatherback trophic position (TP) over an 18-year period, compare these estimates with TP estimates from a Pacific leatherback population, and elucidate the pre-nesting habitat use patterns of leatherbacks. Our secondary objective was to use oceanographic indices and nesting information from St. Croix leatherbacks to evaluate relationships between trophic ecology, nesting parameters, and regional environmental conditions measured by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. We found no change in leatherback TP over time and no difference in TP between Atlantic and Pacific leatherbacks, indicating that differences in trophic ecology between populations are an unlikely driver of the population dichotomy between Pacific and Atlantic leatherbacks. Isotope data suggested that St. Croix leatherbacks inhabit multiple oceanic regions prior to nesting, although, like their conspecifics in the Pacific, individuals exhibit fidelity to specific foraging regions. Leatherback nesting parameters were weakly related to the NAO, which may suggest that positive NAO phases benefit St. Croix leatherbacks, potentially through increases in resource availability in their foraging areas. Our data contribute to the understanding of leatherback turtle ecology and potential mechanistic drivers of the dichotomy between populations of this protected species.

Foraging and recruitment hotspot dynamics for the largest Atlantic loggerhead turtle rookery

Determining patterns of migratory connectivity for highly-mobile, wide-ranging species, such as sea turtles, is challenging. Here, we combined satellite telemetry and stable isotope analysis to estimate foraging locations for 749 individual loggerheads nesting along the east central Florida (USA) coast, the largest rookery for the Northwest Atlantic population. We aggregated individual results by year, identified seven foraging hotspots and tracked these summaries to describe the dynamics of inter-annual contributions of these geographic areas to this rookery over a nine-year period. Using reproductive information for a subset of turtles (n = 513), we estimated hatchling yields associated with each hotspots. We found considerable inter-annual variability in the relative contribution of foraging areas to the nesting adults. Also reproductive success differed among foraging hotspots; females using southern foraging areas laid nests that produced more offspring in all but one year of the study. These analyses identified two high priority areas for future research and conservation efforts: the continental shelf adjacent to east central Florida and the Great Bahama Bank, which support higher numbers of foraging females that provide higher rates of hatchling production. The implementation of the continuous-surface approach to determine geographic origins of unknown migrants is applicable to other migratory species.

A 20-year investigation of declining leatherback hatching success: implications of climate variation

Unprecedented increases in air temperature and erratic precipitation patterns are predicted throughout the twenty-first century as a result of climate change. A recent global analysis of leatherback turtle hatchling output predicts that the nesting site at Sandy Point National Wildlife Refuge (SPNWR) will experience the most significant regional climate alterations. We aimed to identify how local air temperatures and precipitation patterns influenced within-nest mortality and overall hatchling output at this site between 1990 and 2010. We show that while the greatest mortality occurred during the latest stages of development (stage three), the rate of embryo mortality was highest during the initial stages (stage zero) of development (approx. 3.8 embryos per day per clutch). Increased mortality at stage three was associated with decreased precipitation and increased temperature during this developmental period, whereas precipitation prior to, and during stage zero had the greatest influence on early mortality. There was a significant decline in overall hatching success (falling from 74% to 55%) and emergence rate (calculated from the number of hatchlings that emerged from the nest as a percentage of hatched eggs) which fell from 96% to 91%. However, there was no trend observed in local temperature or precipitation during this timeframe, and neither variable was related to hatching success or emergence rate. In conclusion, our findings suggest that despite influencing within-nest mortality, climatic variability does not account for the overall decline in hatchling output at SPNWR from 1990 to 2010. Further research is therefore needed to elicit the reasons for this decline.

Climate Impacts on Sea Turtle Breeding Phenology in Greece and Associated Foraging Habitats in the Wider Mediterranean Region

Sea turtles are vulnerable to climate change impacts in both their terrestrial (nesting beach) and oceanic habitats. From 1982 to 2012, air and sea surface temperatures at major high use foraging and nesting regions (n = 5) of loggerhead turtles (Caretta caretta) nesting in Greece have steadily increased. Here, we update the established relationships between sea surface temperature and nesting data from Zakynthos (latitude: 37.7°N), a major nesting beach, while also expanding these analyses to include precipitation and air temperature and additional nesting data from two other key beaches in Greece: Kyparissia Bay (latitude: 37.3°N) and Rethymno, Crete (latitude: 35.4°N). We confirmed that nesting phenology at Zakynthos has continued to be impacted by breeding season temperature; however, temperature has no consistent relationship with nest numbers, which are declining on Zakynthos and Crete but increasing at Kyparissia. Then using statistically downscaled outputs of 14 climate models assessed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), we projected future shifts in nesting for these populations. Based on the climate models, we projected that temperature at the key foraging and breeding sites (Adriatic Sea, Aegean Sea, Crete, Gulf of Gabès and Zakynthos/Kyparissia Bay; overall latitudinal range: 33.0°-45.8°N) for loggerhead turtles nesting in Greece will rise by 3-5°C by 2100. Our calculations indicate that the projected rise in air and ocean temperature at Zakynthos could cause the nesting season in this major rookery to shift to an earlier date by as much as 50-74 days by 2100. Although an earlier onset of the nesting season may provide minor relief for nest success as temperatures rise, the overall climatic changes to the various important habitats will most likely have an overall negative impact on this population.

A simple, physiologically-based model of sea turtle remigration intervals and nesting population dynamics: Effects of temperature

Variation in the yearly number of sea turtles nesting at rookeries can interfere with population estimates and obscure real population dynamics. Previous theoretical models suggested that this variation in nesting numbers may be driven by changes in resources at the foraging grounds. We developed a physiologically-based model that uses temperatures at foraging sites to predict foraging conditions, resource accumulation, remigration probabilities, and, ultimately, nesting numbers for a stable population of sea turtles. We used this model to explore several scenarios of temperature variation at the foraging grounds, including one-year perturbations and cyclical temperature oscillations. We found that thermally driven resource variation can indeed synchronize nesting in groups of turtles, creating cohorts, but that these cohorts tend to break down over 5-10 years unless regenerated by environmental conditions. Cohorts were broken down faster at lower temperatures. One-year perturbations of low temperature had a synchronizing effect on nesting the following year, while high temperature perturbations tended to delay nesting in a less synchronized way. Cyclical temperatures lead to cyclical responses both in nesting numbers and remigration intervals, with the amplitude and lag of the response depending on the duration of the cycle. Overall, model behavior is consistent with observations at nesting beaches. Future work should focus on refining the model to fit particular nesting populations and testing further whether or not it may be used to predict observed nesting numbers and remigration intervals.

Nesting ecology and population trend of leatherback turtles Dermochelys coriacea at Pacuare Nature Reserve, Costa Rica

The leatherback turtle Dermochelys coriacea, the only extant species in its family, is categorized as Vulnerable on the IUCN Red List. The protection of nesting beaches and the associated conservation efforts along the Western Atlantic coast of Central America have improved the population trends of some of the most important rookeries. Here we report the life history, ecology and population trends of leatherback turtles over 18 years (1994–2012, excluding 1998) of effective protection in the Pacuare Nature Reserve, on the Caribbean coast of Costa Rica. A mean density of 142 nests per km, probably the highest in Central America, indicates the importance of this rookery within the Caribbean region. Long-term conservation efforts at the Reserve have significantly reduced poaching and contributed to maintaining a high level of hatchling production. Long-term monitoring has also facilitated estimation of relevant demographic parameters of the population, such as nesting success (mean 69.8 ± SD 7.3%), clutch size (which is positively correlated with female size), hatching success (mean 55.2 ± SD 6.0%), remigration interval (2.5 years), and growth rate of remigrant females (mean 0.3 ± SD 1.0 cm per year), which is slightly faster than growth rates reported for Pacific leatherback turtles. Overall, efforts at Pacuare have been successful in protecting leatherback turtles and understanding their life history, highlighting the importance of long-term conservation projects for maintaining threatened leatherback populations.

The impact of extended preovipositional arrest on embryonic development and hatchling fitness in the flatback sea turtle

Turtle embryos pause development before oviposition in a process known as preovipositional arrest. Embryonic development arrests due to hypoxia (low oxygen) in the maternal oviducts and resumes only after exposure to normoxia when eggs are laid. Recently, several studies have hypothesized that the prolonged periods of preovipositional arrest may have a detrimental effect on embryo survival and development after eggs are laid. We tested this hypothesis by comparing embryo survival (determined by white spot formation and hatching success) and hatchling fitness (measured by self-righting, crawling, and swimming ability) of flatback sea turtle (Natator depressus) eggs following incubation in hypoxic (∼ 1%) and normoxic (∼ 21%) treatments for 5 d immediately following oviposition. We also measured embryo survival and hatchling fitness when eggs were incubated in hyperoxic conditions (42% oxygen), to determine whether hyperoxia could improve developmental outcome or whether some consequence of oxidative stress might manifest. Eggs incubated in hypoxia remained arrested during the 5-d treatment, and 97.5% of the eggs successfully recommenced development after exposure to normoxia when the treatment finished. At treatment commencement, 100% and 97.5% of eggs in the hyperoxic and normoxic treatments, respectively, began developing. Although hatching success was significantly lower following hypoxia (15%) compared to normoxia (80%) and hyperoxia (85%), hatchings from the hypoxic treatment were larger (carapace length and width and plastron length) than normoxic hatchlings. Similarly, hypoxic hatchings also swam significantly faster than hyperoxic hatchlings. Considering larger hatchlings may have a greater chance of survival, the production of larger hatchings may offset the high cost (lower hatching success) when preovipositional arrest is prolonged. Hyperoxia does not appear to have deleterious consequences for development.

Historical versus contemporary climate forcing on the annual nesting variability of loggerhead sea turtles in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean

A recent analysis suggested that historical climate forcing on the oceanic habitat of neonate sea turtles explained two-thirds of interannual variability in contemporary loggerhead (Caretta caretta) sea turtle nest counts in Florida, where nearly 90% of all nesting by this species in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean occurs. Here, we show that associations between annual nest counts and climate conditions decades prior to nest counts and those conditions one year prior to nest counts were not significantly different. Examination of annual nest count and climate data revealed that statistical artifacts influenced the reported 31-year lag association with nest counts. The projected importance of age 31 neophytes to annual nest counts between 2020 and 2043 was modeled using observed nest counts between 1989 and 2012. Assuming consistent survival rates among cohorts for a 5% population growth trajectory and that one third of the mature female population nests annually, the 41% decline in annual nest counts observed during 1998–2007 was not projected for 2029–2038. This finding suggests that annual nest count trends are more influenced by remigrants than neophytes. Projections under the 5% population growth scenario also suggest that the Peninsular Recovery Unit could attain the demographic recovery criteria of 106,100 annual nests by 2027 if nest counts in 2019 are at least comparable to 2012. Because the first year of life represents only 4% of the time elapsed through age 31, cumulative survival at sea across decades explains most cohort variability, and thus, remigrant population size. Pursuant to the U.S. Endangered Species Act, staggered implementation of protection measures for all loggerhead life stages has taken place since the 1970s. We suggest that the 1998–2007 nesting decline represented a lagged perturbation response to historical anthropogenic impacts, and that subsequent nest count increases since 2008 reflect a potential recovery response.

Linking El Niño, local rainfall, and migration timing in a tropical migratory species

Current climate models project changes in both temperature and precipitation patterns across the globe in the coming years. Migratory species, which move to take advantage of seasonal climate patterns, are likely to be affected by these changes, and indeed, a number of studies have shown a relationship between changing climate and the migration timing of various species. However, these studies have almost exclusively focused on the effects of temperature change on species that inhabit temperate zones. Here, we explore the relationship between rainfall and migration timing in a tropical species, Gecarcoidea natalis (Christmas Island red crab). We find that the timing of the annual crab breeding migration is closely related to the amount of rain that falls during a 'migration window' period prior to potential egg release dates, which is in turn related to the Southern Oscillation Index, an atmospheric El Niño-Southern Oscillation Index. As reproduction in this species is conditional on successful migration, major changes in migration patterns could have detrimental consequences for the survival of the species. This study serves to broaden our understanding of the effects of climate change on migratory species and will hopefully inspire future work on rainfall and tropical migrations.

Movements and diving behavior of internesting green turtles along Pacific Costa Rica

Using satellite transmitters, we determined the internesting movements, spatial ecology and diving behavior of East Pacific green turtles (Chelonia mydas) nesting on Nombre de Jesús and Zapotillal beaches along the Pacific coast of northwestern Costa Rica. Kernel density analysis indicated that turtles spent most of their time in a particularly small area in the vicinity of the nesting beaches (50% utilization distribution was an area of 3 km(2) ). Minimum daily distance traveled during a 12 day internesting period was 4.6 ± 3.5 km. Dives were short and primarily occupied the upper 10 m of the water column. Turtles spent most of their time resting at the surface and conducting U-dives (ranging from 60 to 81% of the total tracking time involved in those activities). Turtles showed a strong diel pattern, U-dives mainly took place during the day and turtles spent a large amount of time resting at the surface at night. The lack of long-distance movements demonstrated that this area was heavily utilized by turtles during the nesting season and, therefore, was a crucial location for conservation of this highly endangered green turtle population. The unique behavior of these turtles in resting at the surface at night might make them particularly vulnerable to fishing activities near the nesting beaches.

Climate driven egg and hatchling mortality threatens survival of eastern Pacific leatherback turtles

Egg-burying reptiles need relatively stable temperature and humidity in the substrate surrounding their eggs for successful development and hatchling emergence. Here we show that egg and hatchling mortality of leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) in northwest Costa Rica were affected by climatic variability (precipitation and air temperature) driven by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Drier and warmer conditions associated with El Niño increased egg and hatchling mortality. The fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projects a warming and drying in Central America and other regions of the World, under the SRES A2 development scenario. Using projections from an ensemble of global climate models contributed to the IPCC report, we project that egg and hatchling survival will rapidly decline in the region over the next 100 years by ∼50–60%, due to warming and drying in northwestern Costa Rica, threatening the survival of leatherback turtles. Warming and drying trends may also threaten the survival of sea turtles in other areas affected by similar climate changes.

Movement patterns for a critically endangered species, the leatherback turtle (Dermochelys coriacea), linked to foraging success and population status

Foraging success for pelagic vertebrates may be revealed by horizontal and vertical movement patterns. We show markedly different patterns for leatherback turtles in the North Atlantic versus Eastern Pacific, which feed on gelatinous zooplankton that are only occasionally found in high densities. In the Atlantic, travel speed was characterized by two modes, indicative of high foraging success at low speeds (<15 km d⁻¹) and transit at high speeds (20–45 km d⁻¹). Only a single mode was evident in the Pacific, which occurred at speeds of 21 km d⁻¹ indicative of transit. The mean dive depth was more variable in relation to latitude but closer to the mean annual depth of the thermocline and nutricline for North Atlantic than Eastern Pacific turtles. The most parsimonious explanation for these findings is that Eastern Pacific turtles rarely achieve high foraging success. This is the first support for foraging behaviour differences between populations of this critically endangered species and suggests that longer periods searching for prey may be hindering population recovery in the Pacific while aiding population maintenance in the Atlantic.

Identification of distinct movement patterns in Pacific leatherback turtle populations influenced by ocean conditions

Interactions with fisheries are believed to be a major cause of mortality for adult leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea), which is of particular concern in the Pacific Ocean, where they have been rapidly declining. In order to identify where these interactions are occurring and how they may be reduced, it is essential first to understand the movements and behavior of leatherback turtles. There are two regional nesting populations in the East Pacific (EP) and West Pacific (WP), comprising multiple nesting sites. We synthesized tracking data from the two populations and compared their movement patterns. A switching state-space model was applied to 135 Argos satellite tracks to account for observation error, and to distinguish between migratory and area-restricted search behaviors. The tracking data, from the largest leatherback data set ever assembled, indicated that there was a high degree of spatial segregation between EP and WP leatherbacks. Area-restricted search behavior mainly occurred in the southeast Pacific for the EP leatherbacks, whereas the WP leatherbacks had several different search areas in the California Current, central North Pacific, South China Sea, off eastern Indonesia, and off southeastern Australia. We also extracted remotely sensed oceanographic data and applied a generalized linear mixed model to determine if leatherbacks exhibited different behavior in relation to environmental variables. For the WP population, the probability of area-restricted search behavior was positively correlated with chlorophyll-a concentration. This response was less strong in the EP population, but these turtles had a higher probability of search behavior where there was greater Ekman upwelling, which may increase the transport of nutrients and consequently prey availability. These divergent responses to oceanographic conditions have implications for leatherback vulnerability to fisheries interactions and to the effects of climate change. The occurrence of leatherback turtles within both coastal and pelagic areas means they have a high risk of exposure to many different fisheries, which may be very distant from their nesting sites. The EP leatherbacks have more limited foraging grounds than the WP leatherbacks, which could make them more susceptible to any temperature or prey changes that occur in response to climate change.

Long-term climate forcing in loggerhead sea turtle nesting

The long-term variability of marine turtle populations remains poorly understood, limiting science and management. Here we use basin-scale climate indices and regional surface temperatures to estimate loggerhead sea turtle (Caretta caretta) nesting at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. Borrowing from fisheries research, our models investigate how oceanographic processes influence juvenile recruitment and regulate population dynamics. This novel approach finds local populations in the North Pacific and Northwest Atlantic are regionally synchronized and strongly correlated to ocean conditions--such that climate models alone explain up to 88% of the observed changes over the past several decades. In addition to its performance, climate-based modeling also provides mechanistic forecasts of historical and future population changes. Hindcasts in both regions indicate climatic conditions may have been a factor in recent declines, but future forecasts are mixed. Available climatic data suggests the Pacific population will be significantly reduced by 2040, but indicates the Atlantic population may increase substantially. These results do not exonerate anthropogenic impacts, but highlight the significance of bottom-up oceanographic processes to marine organisms. Future studies should consider environmental baselines in assessments of marine turtle population variability and persistence.

Tracking leatherback turtles from the world's largest rookery: assessing threats across the South Atlantic

Despite extensive work carried out on leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) in the North Atlantic and Indo-Pacific, very little is known of the at-sea distribution of this species in the South Atlantic, where the world's largest population nests in Gabon (central Africa). This paucity of data is of marked concern given the pace of industrialization in fisheries with demonstrable marine turtle bycatch in African/Latin American waters. We tracked the movements of 25 adult female leatherback turtles obtaining a range of fundamental and applied insights, including indications for methodological advancement. Individuals could be assigned to one of three dispersal strategies, moving to (i) habitats of the equatorial Atlantic, (ii) temperate habitats off South America or (iii) temperate habitats off southern Africa. While occupying regions with high surface chlorophyll concentrations, these strategies exposed turtles to some of the world's highest levels of longline fishing effort, in addition to areas with coastal gillnet fisheries. Satellite tracking highlighted that at least 11 nations should be involved in the conservation of this species in addition to those with distant fishing fleets. The majority of tracking days were, however, spent in the high seas, where effective implementation of conservation efforts is complex to achieve.

Leatherback nests increasing significantly in Florida, USA; trends assessed over 30 years using multilevel modeling

Understanding population status for endangered species is critical to developing and evaluating recovery plans mandated by the Endangered Species Act. For sea turtles, changes in abundance are difficult to detect because most life stages occur in the water. Currently, nest counts are the most reliable way of assessing trends. We determined the rate of growth for leatherback turtle (Dermochelys coriacea) nest numbers in Florida (USA) using a multilevel Poisson regression. We modeled nest counts from 68 beaches over 30 years and, using beach-level covariates (including latitude), we allowed for partial pooling of information between neighboring beaches. This modeling approach is ideal for nest count data because it recognizes the hierarchical structure of the data while incorporating variables related to survey effort. Nesting has increased at all 68 beaches in Florida, with trends ranging from 3.1% to 16.3% per year. Overall, across the state, the number of nests has been increasing by 10.2% per year since 1979. Despite being a small population (probably < 1000 individuals), this nesting population may help achieve objectives in the federal recovery plan. This exponential growth rate mirrors trends observed for other Atlantic populations and may be driven partially by improved protection of nesting beaches. However, nesting is increasing even where beach protection has not been enhanced. Climate variability and associated marine food web dynamics, which could enhance productivity and reduce predators, may be driving this trend.

Physiological, behavioral, and ecological aspects of migration in reptiles

Seasonal movements between foraging, breeding, and overwintering sites occur in a wide variety of reptile species. Terrestrial snakes, lizards, and turtles migrate short distances (\20 km) between seasonal habitats, whereas fully aquatic marine turtles migrate hundreds to thousands of kilometers between foraging and breeding areas. The purpose of this article is to summarize aspects of migratory physiology and behavior in reptiles, particularly with regards to energetics and sensory mechanisms for navigation and orientation. We discuss the influence of aerobic scope, endurance, and cost of transport on migratory capacity, the effects of temperature and circulating hormones on activity and behavior, and mechanisms of detecting and transducing environmental cues to successfully navigate and orient toward a goal during migration. Topics worthy of further research are highlighted in the text, and we conclude with a discussion of how information on migration patterns of reptiles may be used to manage and conserve threatened populations.

Application of diffusion approximation for risk assessments of sea turtle populations

Population viability analysis (PVA) to forecast extinction risk is a commonly used tool in decision- and policy-making processes of governments and conservation organizations. A drawback to PVA is the high degree of uncertainty in these forecasts due to both population stochasticity and parameter estimation uncertainty. With sparse or noisy data, extinction probabilities frequently have 95% confidence intervals ranging from 0 to 1. To make stochastic simulation results more interpretable, we present a new metric, susceptibility to quasi-extinction (SQE), to assess whether or not a population is at risk of declining to a prespecified level (quasi-extinction). Following standard methods for diffusion approximation of extinction risk, we use a parametric bootstrap to determine the 95% CI for the probability of quasi-extinction. SQE is the proportion of this parametric bootstrap that indicates a high (defined as > or = 0.90) probability of quasi-extinction, resulting in a point estimate that integrates both parameter uncertainty and stochasticity in extinction forecasting. We demonstrate the application of the metric with sea turtle nest census data, which have a high degree of year-to-year variance and represent only a small fraction of the total population. Using population simulations, we found that for these types of data a critical SQE value of 0.40 corresponds to populations that have a true risk of quasi-extinction. The metric has an accuracy of > 80%, which can be increased further by lowering the 0.40 threshold and trading off Type I error (considering a population to be "not at risk" when it actually is) and Type II error (considering a population to be "at risk" when it actually is not), giving managers a flexible and quantitative tool for assessments of population status.

Chapter 2. Vulnerability of marine turtles to climate change

Marine turtles are generally viewed as vulnerable to climate change because of the role that temperature plays in the sex determination of embryos, their long life history, long age-to-maturity and their highly migratory nature. Extant species of marine turtles probably arose during the mid-late Jurassic period (180-150 Mya) so have survived past shifts in climate, including glacial periods and warm events and therefore have some capacity for adaptation. The present-day rates of increase of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, and associated temperature changes, are very rapid; the capacity of marine turtles to adapt to this rapid change may be compromised by their relatively long generation times. We consider the evidence and likely consequences of present-day trends of climate change on marine turtles. Impacts are likely to be complex and may be positive as well as negative. For example, rising sea levels and increased storm intensity will negatively impact turtle nesting beaches; however, extreme storms can also lead to coastal accretion. Alteration of wind patterns and ocean currents will have implications for juveniles and adults in the open ocean. Warming temperatures are likely to impact directly all turtle life stages, such as the sex determination of embryos in the nest and growth rates. Warming of 2 degrees C could potentially result in a large shift in sex ratios towards females at many rookeries, although some populations may be resilient to warming if female biases remain within levels where population success is not impaired. Indirectly, climate change is likely to impact turtles through changes in food availability. The highly migratory nature of turtles and their ability to move considerable distances in short periods of time should increase their resilience to climate change. However, any such resilience of marine turtles to climate change is likely to be severely compromised by other anthropogenic influences. Development of coastlines may threaten nesting beaches and reproductive success, and pollution and eutrophication is threatening important coastal foraging habitats for turtles worldwide. Exploitation and bycatch in other fisheries has seriously reduced marine turtle populations. The synergistic effects of other human-induced stressors may seriously reduce the capacity of some turtle populations to adapt to the current rates of climate change. Conservation recommendations to increase the capacity of marine turtle populations to adapt to climate change include increasing population resilience, for example by the use of turtle exclusion devices in fisheries, protection of nesting beaches from the viewpoints of both conservation and coastal management, and increased international conservation efforts to protect turtles in regions where there is high unregulated or illegal fisheries (including turtle harvesting). Increasing research efforts on the critical knowledge gaps of processes influencing population numbers, such as identifying ocean foraging hotspots or the processes that underlie the initiation of nesting migrations and selection of breeding areas, will inform adaptive management in a changing climate.

Decreasing annual nest counts in a globally important loggerhead sea turtle population

The loggerhead sea turtle (Caretta caretta) nests on sand beaches, has both oceanic and neritic life stages, and migrates internationally. We analyzed an 18-year time series of Index Nesting Beach Survey (Index) nest-count data to describe spatial and temporal trends in loggerhead nesting on Florida (USA) beaches. The Index data were highly resolved: 368 fixed zones (mean length 0.88 km) were surveyed daily during annual 109-day survey seasons. Spatial and seasonal coverage averaged 69% of estimated total nesting by loggerheads in the state. We carried out trend analyses on both annual survey-region nest-count totals (N = 18) and annual zone-level nest densities (N = 18 x 368 = 6624). In both analyses, negative binomial regression models were used to fit restricted cubic spline curves to aggregated nest counts. Between 1989 and 2006, loggerhead nest counts on Florida Index beaches increased and then declined, with a net decrease over the 18-year period. This pattern was evident in both a trend model of annual survey-region nest-count totals and a mixed-effect, "single-region" trend model of annual zone-level nest densities that took into account both spatial and temporal correlation between counts. We also saw this pattern in a zone-level model that allowed trend line shapes to vary between six coastal subregions. Annual mean zone-level nest density declined significantly (-28%; 95% CI: -34% to -21%) between 1989 and 2006 and declined steeply (-43%; 95% CI: -48% to -39%) during 1998-2006. Rates of change in annual mean nest density varied more between coastal subregions during the "mostly increasing" period prior to 1998 than during the "steeply declining" period after 1998. The excellent fits (observed vs. expected count R2 > 0.91) of the mixed-effect zone-level models confirmed the presence of strong, positive, within-zone autocorrelation (R > 0.93) between annual counts, indicating a remarkable year-to-year consistency in the longshore spatial distribution of nests over the survey region. We argue that the decline in annual loggerhead nest counts in peninsular Florida can best be explained by a decline in the number of adult female loggerheads in the population. Causes of this decline are explored.

Effects of illegal harvest of eggs on the population decline of leatherback turtles in Las Baulas Marine National Park, Costa Rica

Within 19 years the nesting population of leatherback turtles (Dermochelys coriacea) at Parque Nacional Marino Las Baulas declined from 1500 turtles nesting per year to about 100. We analyzed the effects of fishery bycatch and illegal harvesting (poaching) of eggs on this population. We modeled the population response to different levels of egg harvest (90, 75, 50, and 25%) and the effect of eradicating poaching at different times during the population decline. We compared effects of 90% poaching with those of 20% adult mortality because both of these processes were present in the population at Las Baulas. There was a stepwise decline in number of nesting turtles at all levels of egg harvest. Extirpation times for different levels of poaching ranged from 45 to 282 years. The nesting population declined more slowly and survived longer with 20% adult mortality (146 years) than it did with 90% poaching (45 years). Time that elapsed until poaching stopped determined the average population size at which the population stabilized, ranging from 90 to 420 nesting turtles. Our model predicted that saving clutches lost naturally would restore the population when adult mortality rates were low and would contribute more to population recovery when there were short remigration intervals between nesting seasons and a large proportion of natural loss of clutches. Because the model indicated that poaching was the most important cause of the leatherback decline at Las Baulas, protecting nests on the beach and protecting the beach from development are critical for survival of this population. Nevertheless, the model predicted that current high mortality rates of adults will prevent population recovery. Therefore, protection of the beach habitat and nests must be continued and fishery bycatch must be reduced to save this population.

Isotope analysis reveals foraging area dichotomy for atlantic leatherback turtles

Background

The leatherback turtle (Dermochelys coriacea) has undergone a dramatic decline over the last 25 years, and this is believed to be primarily the result of mortality associated with fisheries bycatch followed by egg and nesting female harvest. Atlantic leatherback turtles undertake long migrations across ocean basins from subtropical and tropical nesting beaches to productive frontal areas. Migration between two nesting seasons can last 2 or 3 years, a time period termed the remigration interval (RI). Recent satellite transmitter data revealed that Atlantic leatherbacks follow two major dispersion patterns after nesting season, through the North Gulf Stream area or more eastward across the North Equatorial Current. However, information on the whole RI is lacking, precluding the accurate identification of feeding areas where conservation measures may need to be applied.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Using stable isotopes as dietary tracers we determined the characteristics of feeding grounds of leatherback females nesting in French Guiana. During migration, 3-year RI females differed from 2-year RI females in their isotope values, implying differences in their choice of feeding habitats (offshore vs. more coastal) and foraging latitude (North Atlantic vs. West African coasts, respectively). Egg-yolk and blood isotope values are correlated in nesting females, indicating that egg analysis is a useful tool for assessing isotope values in these turtles, including adults when not available.

Conclusions/Significance

Our results complement previous data on turtle movements during the first year following the nesting season, integrating the diet consumed during the year before nesting. We suggest that the French Guiana leatherback population segregates into two distinct isotopic groupings, and highlight the urgent need to determine the feeding habitats of the turtle in the Atlantic in order to protect this species from incidental take by commercial fisheries. Our results also emphasize the use of eggs, a less-invasive sampling material than blood, to assess isotopic data and feeding habits for adult female leatherbacks.

Dispersal, recruitment and migratory behaviour in a hawksbill sea turtle aggregation

We investigated the dispersal, recruitment and migratory behaviour of the hawksbill sea turtle (Eretmochelys imbricata), among different life-history stages and demographic segments of the large hawksbill turtle aggregation at Mona Island, Puerto Rico. There were significant differences in both mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) haplotype diversity and haplotype frequencies among the adult males, females and juveniles examined, but little evidence for temporal heterogeneity within these same groups sampled across years. Consistent with previous studies and the hypothesis of strong natal homing, there were striking mtDNA haplotype differences between nesting females on Mona Island and nesting females in other major Caribbean rookeries. Breeding males also showed strong, albeit weaker, genetic evidence of natal homing. Overall, Bayesian mixed-stock analysis suggests that Mona Island was the natal rookery for 79% (65-94%) of males in the aggregation. In contrast, the Mona Island rookery accounted for only a small subset of the new juvenile recruits to the foraging grounds or in the population of older juvenile hawksbills turtles on Mona. Instead, both new recruits and the older juvenile hawksbill turtles on Mona more likely recruited from other Caribbean rookeries, suggesting that a mechanism besides natal homing must be influencing recruitment to feeding habitats. The difference in the apparent degree of natal homing behaviour among the different life-history stages of hawksbill turtles at Mona Island underscores the complexity of the species' life-history dynamics and highlights the need for both local and regional conservation efforts.