Combination of biological and morphological parameters for the selection of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma waiting for liver transplantation

Are Ki-67 and Procalcitonin Expression Levels Useful in Predicting the Biological Behavior of Hepatocellular Carcinoma After Liver Transplantation?

Background: Examinations of procalcitonin (PCT) and Ki-67 expression levels in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients who have undergone liver transplantation (LT) through immunohistochemical analyses of tumor tissue may reveal the biological characteristics of the tumor, thus informing the selection of HCC patients for LT. Methods: Hepatectomy specimens from 86 HCC patients who underwent LT were obtained and analyzed immunohistochemically for the expression of PCT and Ki-67. The percentage and intensity of PCT staining, as well as the percentage of Ki-67 expression, were assessed for each patient. The impacts of PCT and Ki-67 expression on disease-free survival, overall survival, and the recurrence rate were studied, as well as their correlations with other clinicopathological features. Results: The recurrent HCC group showed a higher Ki-67 level (p < 0.001), larger maximum dominant tumor diameter (p < 0.001), and higher rate of vascular invasion (p = 0.001). The pre-transplant AFP (p = 0.001), maximum dominant tumor diameter (p < 0.001), number of tumor nodules (p < 0.001), rate of vascular invasion (p = 0.001), and Ki-67 level (p = 0.044) were higher in patients beyond the Milan criteria. Similarly, the pre-transplant AFP (p < 0.001); maximum dominant tumor diameter (p < 0.001); number of tumor nodules (p < 0.001); rates of portal vein tumor thrombus (p = 0.002), poor differentiation (p = 0.021), and vascular invasion (p < 0.001); and Ki-67 level (p = 0.010) were higher in patients beyond the expanded Malatya criteria. The maximum dominant tumor diameter (p = 0.006); Ki-67 level (p = 0.003); rates of vascular invasion (p < 0.001), cases beyond the Milan criteria (p = 0.042) and the expanded Malatya criteria (p = 0.027), and portal vein tumor thrombus (p = 0.020); and presence of recurrence (p < 0.001) were higher in HCC patients with mortality. The Kaplan-Meier estimates indicated that Ki-67 levels exceeding 5% significantly affected DFS and OS. Although the Kaplan-Meier estimates indicated that a PCT staining percentage of ≥25% did not have a statistically significant effect on DFS or OS, the outcomes may be considered clinically significant. Conclusions: This study demonstrated that the Ki-67 proliferation index can be used as a predictive biomarker of the biological behavior of HCC. Furthermore, we claim that PCT expression over a particular threshold might impact recurrence and survival, and we believe that further multicenter prospective studies focused on standardized PCT antibody staining are crucial in order to determine its potential as a biomarker for HCC.

Combining a deep learning model with clinical data better predicts hepatocellular carcinoma behavior following surgery

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is among the most common cancers worldwide, and tumor recurrence following liver resection or transplantation is one of the highest contributors to mortality in HCC patients after surgery. Using artificial intelligence (AI), we developed an interdisciplinary model to predict HCC recurrence and patient survival following surgery. We collected whole-slide H&E images, clinical variables, and follow-up data from 300 patients with HCC who underwent transplant and 169 patients who underwent resection at the Cleveland Clinic. A deep learning model was trained to predict recurrence-free survival (RFS) and disease-specific survival (DSS) from the H&E-stained slides. Repeated cross-validation splits were used to compute robust C-index estimates, and the results were compared to those obtained by fitting a Cox proportional hazard model using only clinical variables. While the deep learning model alone was predictive of recurrence and survival among patients in both cohorts, integrating the clinical and histologic models significantly increased the C-index in each cohort. In every subgroup analyzed, we found that a combined clinical and deep learning model better predicted post-surgical outcome in HCC patients compared to either approach independently.

An Insight Into the Role of Alpha-Fetoprotein (AFP) in the Development and Progression of Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the primary malignancy of hepatocytes and the second most common cause of cancer-related mortality across the globe. Despite significant advancements in screening, diagnosis, and treatment modalities for HCC, the mortality-to-incidence ratio remain unacceptably high. A recent study indicates that a minor population of HCCs are AFP negative or express the normal range of AFP levels. Although it is a gold standard and a more reliable biomarker in the advanced stage of HCC and poorly differentiated tumors, it does not serve as a suitable means for screening HCC. AFP plays a significant role in the development and progression of HCC and understanding its role is crucial. By examining the molecular mechanisms involved in AFP-mediated tumorigenesis, we can better understand HCC pathogenesis and identify potential therapeutic targets. This article details the role of alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) in the carcinogenic transformation of hepatocytes. The article also focuses on information about the structure, biosynthesis, and regulation of AFP at the gene level. Additionally, it discusses the immune evasion, metastasis, and control of gene expression that AFP mediates during HCC.

Evolution of Liver Transplantation Indications: Expanding Horizons

Liver transplantation (LT) has significantly transformed the prognosis of patients with end-stage liver disease and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The traditional epidemiology of liver diseases has undergone a remarkable shift in indications for LT, marked by a decline in viral hepatitis and an increase in metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD), along with expanded indications for HCC. Recent advancements in surgical techniques, organ preservation and post-transplant patients' management have opened new possibilities for LT. Conditions that were historically considered absolute contraindications have emerged as potential new indications, demonstrating promising results in terms of patient survival. While these expanding indications provide newfound hope, the ethical dilemma of organ scarcity persists. Addressing this requires careful consideration and international collaboration to ensure equitable access to LT. Multidisciplinary approaches and ongoing research efforts are crucial to navigate the evolving landscape of LT. This review aims to offer a current overview of the primary emerging indications for LT, focusing on acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF), acute alcoholic hepatitis (AH), intrahepatic and perihilar cholangiocarcinoma (i- and p-CCA), colorectal liver metastasis (CRLM), and neuroendocrine tumor (NET) liver metastases.

Therapeutic Approach to Post-Transplant Recurrence of Hepatocellular Carcinoma: Certainties and Open Issues

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a growing indication for liver transplantation (LT). Careful candidate selection is a prerequisite to keep post-LT recurrence rates within acceptable percentages. In the pre-LT period, various types of locoregional treatments and/or systemic therapies can be used for bridging or downstaging purposes. In this context, one of the factors limiting the possibility of treatment is the degree of functional liver impairment. In the LT subject, no widely accepted indications are available to guide treatment of disease recurrence and heterogeneity exists between transplant centers. Improved liver function post LT makes multiple therapeutic strategies theoretically feasible, but patient management is complicated by the need to adjust immunosuppressive therapy and to assess potential toxicities and drug-drug interactions. Finally, there is controversy and uncertainty about the use of recently introduced immunotherapeutic drugs, mainly due to the risk of organ rejection. In this paper, we will review the most recent available literature on the management of post-transplant HCC recurrence, discussing evidence and controversies.

Liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma: Historical evolution of transplantation criteria

Liver transplantation (LT) for hepatocellular carcinoma is still a hot topic, and the main factor that is associated with the success of treatment is to determine the patients who will benefit from LT. Milan criteria have been defined 25 years ago and still is being used for patient selection for LT. However, in living donor LT, the Milan criteria is being extended. Current criteria for patient selection do not only consider morphologic characteristics such as tumor size and number of tumor nodules but also biologic markers that show tumor aggressiveness is also being considered. In the present review article, we have summarized all the criteria and scoring systems regarding LT for hepatocellular carcinoma. All criteria have 5-year overall survival rates that were comparable to the Milan Criteria and ranged between 60%-85%. On the other hand, it was seen that the recurrence rates had increased as the Milan criteria were exceeded; the 5-year recurrence rates ranged between 4.9% to 39.9%. Treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma needs a multidisciplinary approach. Ideal selection criteria are yet to be discovered. The same is true for treatment modalities. The goal will be achieved by a harmonic interplay between basic science researchers and clinicians.

Tumor burden score as a new prognostic surrogate in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma undergoing radiofrequency ablation: role of albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade vs easy ALBI grade

INTRODUCTION

Tumor burden score (TBS) was proposed to represent tumor burden in solid tumors, including hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The prognostic role of TBS in HCC patients in relation to recently introduced liver reserve markers, albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade, and easy (EZ)-ALBI grade, is unclear. We aimed to investigate the feasibility of TBS in HCC patients undergoing radiofrequency ablation (RFA).

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

A total of 576 treatment-naïve patients with HCC undergoing RFA were analyzed. The multivariate Cox analysis was used to identify independent predictors associated with tumor recurrence and long-term survival.

RESULTS

Patients with high TBS had increased risk of tumor recurrence and mortality compared with those with low TBS. The Cox analysis showed that serum ɑ-fetoprotein (AFP) level >20 ng/mL, medium and high TBS, ALBI grade 2 and grade 3, EZ-ALBI grade 2 and grade 3 were associated with tumor recurrence and decreased patient survival (all p <0.05). In addition, TBS can reliably stratify tumor recurrence and overall survival in different ALBI and EZ-ALBI grade groups.

CONCLUSIONS

TBS is a simple and feasible prognostic surrogate to predict tumor recurrence and survival in HCC patients undergoing RFA. Its prognostic ability remains stable in patients with variable liver functional reserve.

Patient Selection for Downstaging of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Prior to Liver Transplantation—Adjusting the Odds?

Background and Aims: Morphometric features such as the Milan criteria serve as standard criteria for liver transplantation (LT) in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Since it has been recognized that these criteria are too restrictive and do not adequately display the tumor biology, additional selection parameters are emerging.

Methods: Concise review of the current literature on patient selection for downstaging and LT for HCC outside the Milan criteria.

Results: The major task in patients outside the Milan criteria is the need for higher granularity with patient selection, since the benefit through LT is not uniform. The recent literature clearly shows that beneath tumor size and number, additional selection parameters are useful in the process of patient selection for and during downstaging. For initial patient selection, the alpha fetoprotein (AFP) level adds additional information to the size and number of HCC nodules concerning the chance of successful downstaging and LT. This effect is quantifiable using newer selection tools like the WE (West-Eastern) downstaging criteria or the Metroticket 2.0 criteria. Also an initial PET-scan and/or tumor biopsy can be helpful, especially in the high risk group of patients outside the University of California San Francisco (UCSF) criteria. After this entry selection, the clinical course during downstaging procedures concerning the tumor and the AFP response is of paramount importance and serves as an additional final selection tool.

Conclusion: Selection criteria for liver transplantation in HCC patients are becoming more and more sophisticated, but are still imperfect. The implementation of molecular knowledge will hopefully support a more specific risk prediction for HCC patients in the future, but do not provide a profound basis for clinical decision-making at present.

A New Tumor Burden Score and Albumin-Bilirubin Grade-Based Prognostic Model for Hepatocellular Carcinoma

The prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) varies widely due to variable tumor extent and liver reserve. We aimed to develop and validate a new prognostic model based on tumor burden score (TBS) and albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade for HCC. We prospectively identified 3794 HCC patients who were randomized into derivation and validation groups. Survival predictors were evaluated by a multivariate Cox model. The TBS-ALBI system allocated two points for high TBS and ALBI grade 3, and one point each for the presence of ascites, serum α-fetoprotein ≥ 400 ng/mL, vascular invasion or distant metastasis, performance status 2-4, medium TBS, and ALBI grade 2, with a maximal score of 8 points. Significant survival differences were found across different TBS-ALBI score groups in the validation cohort (all p < 0.001). The TBS-ALBI system had the lowest corrected Akaike information criterion (AICc) and the highest homogeneity compared with other proposed staging models. The discriminative ability of the TBS-ALBI system was consistently stable across different viral etiologies, cancer stages, and treatment strategies. Conclusions: This new TBS-ALBI system is a feasible and robust prognostic system in comparison with other systems; it is a user-friendly tool for long-term outcome assessment independent of treatment modality and cancer stage in HCC.

The Landscape Of Alpha Fetoprotein In Hepatocellular Carcinoma: Where Are We?

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the most common primary liver cancer and has been acknowledged as a leading cause of death among cirrhosis patients. Difficulties in early diagnosis and heterogeneity are obstacles to effective treatment, especially for advanced HCC. Liver transplantation (LT) is considered the best therapy for HCC. Although many biomarkers are being proposed, alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), which was identified over 60 years ago, remains the most utilized. Recently, much hope has been placed in the immunogenicity of AFP to develop novel therapies, such as AFP vaccines and AFP-specific adoptive T-cell transfer (ACT). This review summarizes the performance of AFP as a biomarker for HCC diagnosis and prognosis, as well as its correlation with molecular classes. In addition, the role of AFP in LT is also described. Finally, we highlight the mechanism and application prospects of two immune therapies (AFP vaccine and ACT) for HCC. In general, our review points out the prevalence of AFP in HCC, accompanied by some controversies and novel directions for future research.

Prognostic role of selection criteria for liver transplantation in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma: a network meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are selected for transplantation if they have a low tumour burden and low risk of recurrence. The morphometric Milan criteria have been the cornerstone for patient selection, but dynamic morphological and biological tumour characteristics surfaced as an encouraging tool to refine the selection of patients with HCC and to support the expansion of the Milan criteria. The outcomes of the most prevalent models that select patients with HCC for liver transplantation were analysed in this study, which aimed to identify the selection model that offered the best recurrence-free and overall survival after transplantation.

METHODS

Studies that compared Milan, University of California San Francisco (UCSF), up-to-seven (UPTS), alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), and MetroTicket 2.0 (MT2) models were included. One-year, 3-year, and 5-year recurrence-free and overall survival rates of patients selected for transplantation using different models were analysed.

RESULTS

A total of 60 850 adult patients with HCC selected for liver transplantation using Milan, UCSF, UPTS, AFP, or MT2 criteria were included. Patients selected for transplantation using the MT2 model had the highest 1-, 3-, and 5-year recurrence-free survival. In addition, patients selected for transplantation using MT2 criteria had the best 1- and 3-year overall survival, whereas patients selected for transplantation using the Milan criteria had the best 5-year overall survival rates.

CONCLUSION

The MT2 model offered the best post-transplant outcomes in patients with HCC, highlighting the importance of considering tumour morphology and biology when selecting patients with HCC for liver transplantation.

Upper Limits of Downstaging for Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Liver Transplantation

In Europe and the United States, approximately 1100 and 1800 liver transplantations, respectively, are performed every year for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), compared with an annual incidence of 65,000 and 39,000 new cases, respectively. Because of organ shortages, proper patient selection is crucial, especially for those exceeding the Milan criteria. Downstaging is the reduction of the HCC burden to meet the eligibility criteria for liver transplantation. Many techniques can be used in downstaging, including ablation, chemoembolisation, radioembolisation and systemic treatments, with a reported success rate of 60-70%. In recent years, an increasing number of patient responders to downstaging procedures has been included in the waitlist, generally with a comparable five-year post-transplant survival but with a higher probability of dropout than HCC patients within the Milan criteria. While the Milan criteria are generally accepted as the endpoint of downstaging, the upper limits of tumour burden for downstaging HCC for liver transplantation are controversial. Very challenging situations involve HCC patients with large nodules, macrovascular invasion or even extrahepatic metastasis at baseline who respond to increasingly more effective downstaging procedures and who aspire to be placed on the waitlist for transplantation. This narrative review analyses the most important evidence available on cohorts subjected to "extended" downstaging, including HCC patients over the up-to-seven criteria and over the University of California San Francisco downstaging criteria. We also address surrogate markers of biological aggressiveness, such as alpha-fetoprotein and the response stability to locoregional treatments, which are very useful in selecting responders to downstaging procedures for waitlisting inclusion.

Risk stratification of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma undergoing trans arterial chemoembolization using an alpha-fetoprotein model

Background

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the fifth most common cancer worldwide. There are multiple factors that could affect the malignancy and progression of HCC including tumor number, size, and macrovascular invasion. The alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) model was validated as a predictor for HCC recurrence post-liver transplantation, especially in France. However, the AFP model has not been studied on patients with HCC undergoing locoregional treatment. This study aimed to assess the prognostic value of the AFP model in patients with HCC undergoing trans arterial chemoembolization (TACE). This cohort study was conducted at Ain Shams University Hospitals, Cairo, Egypt. We included all newly diagnosed patients with HCC who were fit for TACE from January 2012 to January 2017. The AFP model was calculated for each patient before TACE. Subsequently, we classified them into low- and high-risk groups for TACE. The patients were followed up by AFP level and triphasic spiral CT performed 1 month after TACE to evaluate the response then at 4 months and 7 months post TACE to evaluate the local and distant recurrence.

Results

One hundred and thirty-two patients were included in the study. Complete response (CR) was achieved nonsignificantly at a higher percentage in the low-risk group in comparison with the high-risk group. One- and three-year recurrence-free survivals (RFS) were longer in the low-risk group in comparison with the high-risk group (50% and 24.1% vs. 29.1% and 16.2%, respectively). One- and three-year overall survival (OS) rates were 97% and 37.3% in the low-risk group vs. 98.1% and 11.6% in the high-risk group, respectively, without statistical significance. On classifying patients with AFP levels < 100 IU/mL into low- and high-risk patients, CR was achieved in a significantly higher percentage in the low-risk group in comparison with the high-risk group(P < 0.05). Recurrence occurred nonsignificantly in a less percentage in low than high-risk group. The median OS was significantly higher in the low-risk group in comparison with that in the high-risk group (18 vs. 16 months respectively) (P < 0.01).

Conclusion

The AFP model may have a prognostic value for patients with HCC undergoing TACE especially in patients with an AFP level < 100 IU/mL.

Predicting recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma after liver transplantation using a novel model that incorporates tumor and donor-related factors

Evidence suggests that liver graft quality impacts on posttransplant recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). As of today, selection criteria only use variables related to tumor characteristics. Within the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients, we identified patients with HCC who underwent liver transplantation between 2004 and 2016 (development cohort, n = 10 887). Based on tumor recurrence rates, we fitted a competing-risk regression incorporating tumor- and donor-related factors, and we developed a prognostic score. Results were validated both internally and externally in the Australia and New Zealand Liver Transplant Registry. Total tumor diameter (subhazard ratio [sub-HR] 1.52 [1.28-1.81]), alpha-feto protein (sub-HR 1.27 [1.23-1.32], recipient male gender (sub-HR 1.43 [1.18-1.74]), elevated donor body mass index (sub-HR 1.26 [1.01-1.58]), and shared graft allocation policy (sub-HR 1.20 [1.01-1.43]) were independently associated with tumor recurrence. We next developed the Darlica score (sub-HR 2.72 [2.41-3.08] P < 0.001) that allows identifying risky combinations between a given donor and a given recipient. Results were validated internally (n = 3 629) and externally in the Australia and New Zealand Liver Transplant Registry (n = 370). The current score is based on variables that are readily available at the time of graft offer. It allows identifying hazardous donor-recipient combinations in terms of risk of tumor recurrence and overall survival.

Tumor burden score as a new prognostic marker for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma undergoing transarterial chemoembolization

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Size and number are major determinants of tumor burden in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Patients with HCC undergoing transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) have variable outcomes due to heterogeneity of tumor burden. Recently, tumor burden score (TBS) was proposed to evaluate the extent of tumor involvement. However, the prognostic accuracy of TBS has not been well evaluated in HCC. This study aimed to assess its prognostic role in HCC patients undergoing TACE.

METHODS

A total of 935 treatment-naïve HCC patients receiving TACE were retrospectively analyzed. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards model was used to determine independent prognostic predictors.

RESULTS

Tumor burden score tended to increase with increasing size and number of tumors in study patients. The Cox model showed that serum creatinine ≥ 1.2 mg/dL (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.296, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.077-1.559, P = 0.006), serum α-fetoprotein ≥ 400 ng/dL (HR: 2.245, 95% CI: 1.905-2.645, P < 0.001), vascular invasion (HR: 1.870, 95% CI: 1.520-2.301, P < 0.001), medium TBS (HR: 1.489, 95% CI: 1.206-1.839, P < 0.001) and high TBS (HR: 2.563, 95% CI: 1.823-3.602, P < 0.001), albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) grade 2-3 (HR: 1.521, 95% CI: 1.291-1.792, P < 0.001), and performance status 1 (HR: 1.362, 95% CI: 1.127-1.647, P < 0.001) and status 2 (HR: 1.553, 95% CI: 1.237-1.948, P < 0.001) were associated with increased mortality. Patients with high TBS had poor overall survival in Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage B/C and different ALBI grades.

CONCLUSIONS

Tumor burden score is a feasible new prognostic surrogate marker of tumor burden in HCC and can well discriminate survival in patients undergoing TACE across different baseline characteristics.

Hepatocellular cancer selection systems and liver transplantation: from the tower of babel to an ideal comprehensive score

The Milan criteria (MC) remain the cornerstone for the selection of patients with hepatocellular cancer (HCC) to be listed for liver transplantation (LT). Recently, several expanded criteria have been proposed to increase the transplantability of HCC patients without compromising their (oncologic) outcome. This paper aims to systematically review the different reported HCC-LT selection systems looking thereby at their ability to increase the number of transplantable patients and the overall survival and oncological outcome. A systematic review of the literature covering the period 1993 (date of the first reported HCC-LT selection system)-2021 identified 59 different inclusion criteria of HCC for LT. Among the 59 studies reporting HCC-LT selection systems, 15 (28.3%) were exclusively based on morphological aspects of the tumor; 29 (54.7%) included biologic, seven (13.2%) radiological, and two (3.8%) only included pathological tumor features. Overall, 31% more patients could be transplanted when adhering to the new HCC-LT selection systems. Despite the increased number of LT, 5-year patient and disease-free survival rates were similar between MC-IN and MC-OUT/new HCC-LT-IN criteria. A careful extension of the inclusion criteria should allow many more patients to access a potentially curative LT without compromising their outcome. The development of a widely accepted "comprehensive" HCC-LT Score able to offer a fair chance of justified transplantation to more patients should become a priority within the liver transplant community. Further studies are needed to develop internationally accepted, expanded selection criteria for liver transplantation of HCC patients.

Management of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Recurrence after Liver Transplantation

Recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after liver transplantation (LT), occurring in 10-15% of cases, is a major concern. A lot of work has been done in order to refine the selection of LT candidates with HCC and to improve the outcome of patients with recurrence. Despite this, the prognosis of these patients remains poor, partly due to the several areas of uncertainty in their management. Even if surveillance for HCC recurrence is crucial for early detection, there is currently no evidence to support a specific and cost-effective post-LT surveillance strategy. Concerning preventive measures, consensus on the best immunosuppressive drugs has not been reached and not enough data to support adjuvant therapy are present. Several therapeutic approaches (surgical, locoregional and systemic treatments) are available in case of recurrence, but there are still few data in the post-LT setting. Moreover, the use of immune checkpoint inhibitors is controversial in transplant recipients considered the risk of rejection. In this paper, the available evidence on the management of HCC recurrence after LT is comprehensively reviewed, considering pre- and post-transplant risk stratification, post-transplant surveillance, preventive strategies and treatment options.

Survival Analysis after Living Donor Liver Transplantation for Hepatocellular Carcinoma: A Single Center Cohort Study

Background: Living-donor liver transplantation (LDLT) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has been used as a curative treatment option for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) because of a shortage of deceased donors. This study aimed to investigate survival outcomes after LDLT for HCC. Method: This study included 359 patients undergoing LDLT for HCC. We analyzed overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS) and the prognostic factors related to them. Results: The 5-year OS and RFS rates of patients within the Milan criteria (WM) were better than those of patients beyond the Milan criteria (BM) (87.3% vs. 64.1% and 87.6% vs. 57.8%, respectively, both p < 0.05). Alpha-fetoprotein level (AFP) > 400 ng/mL (hazard ratio (HR), 2.07; 95% CI, 1.28–3.36; p < 0.05) and HCC of BM (HR, 2.61; 95% CI, 1.60–4.26; p < 0.05) at immediate pretransplant were independent risk factors of OS. AFP > 400 ng/mL (HR, 2.16; 95% CI, 1.34–3.49; p < 0.05) and HCC of BM (HR, 3.01; 95% CI, 1.81–5.01; p < 0.05) were also independent risk factors of RFS. In pathologic findings of explanted liver, tumor size, Edmondson–Steiner grade III–IV, and microvascular invasion were independent risk factors of both OS and RFS (p < 0.05). Conclusions: BM and AFP > 400 ng/mL at immediate pretransplant are unfavorable predictors of survival outcomes after LDLT for HCC.

The Importance of AFP in Liver Transplantation for HCC

INTRODUCTION

The most common biomarker for HCC is serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP). AFP is used for screening and diagnosing HCC, and also, it is used for predicting prognosis and monitoring the response to treatment.

DISCUSSION

AFP secretion is associated with poor tumor histologic grade and aggressive tumor biological behavior. The risk of dropout on the waiting list for liver transplantation and the risk of tumor recurrence after liver transplantation are associated with high AFP serum levels. Therefore, using AFP levels for selecting patients to include on the liver transplantation waiting lists is critical. It is also known that a low AFP serum level before liver transplantation has limited informative value, but high AFP levels prior to liver transplantation indicate a higher risk for HCC recurrence.

CONCLUSION

AFP's performance as a screening, diagnostic, and prognostic marker for HCC is not ideal, but it is the most frequently used biomarker in the management of HCC.

Do We Need to Be Limited by Matching Milan Criteria for Survival in Living Donor Liver Transplantation?

PURPOSE

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the second leading cause of cancer deaths and the 7th most common cancer. It has two characteristic features: being advanced stage at diagnosis and association with liver cirrhosis. Liver transplantation (LT) offers the only curative option to treat both components of the disease. The Milan criteria have been extensively used for selecting patients with HCC for LT. However, using Milan criteria, we can only transplant 30% of the patients. The aim of the present review is to evaluate the role of LT in HCC beyond the Milan criteria.

METHODS

We evaluated the studies that have introduced extended criteria to select patients with HCC beyond the Milan criteria. We evaluated the outcomes in terms of disease-free survival rates and HCC recurrences.

RESULTS

There are patients with tumors that are beyond Milan criteria that could benefit from LT. Selection of these patients has paramount importance in the era of living donor liver transplantation. Current expanded criteria depend on either the bulk of the tumor or the additional surrogate markers of tumor biology such as alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and des-gamma carboxyprothrombin (DCP).

CONCLUSION

There is no ideal marker or an extended criterion for selecting patients with HCC beyond the Milan criteria and it needs further research to find an effective biomarker that has prognostic significance to select patients with advanced tumors.

High pre-treatment static and dynamic alpha-fetoprotein values predict reduced overall survival in hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Hepatocellular carcinoma is one of the most lethal cancers worldwide. Novel prognostic and/or predictive biomarkers are urgently needed to improve patient management. Alpha-fetoprotein is a well-established and widely used biomarker for hepatocellular carcinoma. However, diagnostic accuracy of static alpha-fetoprotein values is limited and the clinical potential is a matter of ongoing scientific discussion.

OBJECTIVE

We here evaluated the prognostic impact of pre-treatment static and dynamic alpha-fetoprotein variables on overall survival of hepatocellular carcinoma patients in a Western cohort.

METHODS

Patients with confirmed hepatocellular carcinoma (n = 809) treated at the Johannes Gutenberg-University Mainz between 1998 and 2014 and two available pre-treatment alpha-fetoprotein-values (AFP-slope) were retrospectively analysed. Clinico-pathological baseline parameters, pre-treatment static values and AFP-slope were assessed. Prognostic impact was determined by Kaplan-Meier analyses and Cox regression models.

RESULTS

High static and dynamic alpha-fetoprotein variables prior to therapy were associated with reduced survival rates of hepatocellular carcinoma patients. Several known clinical parameters such as Child-Pugh B (p < 0.01) and C stage (p < 0.001), portal vein thrombosis (p < 0.001) and extrahepatic spread (p < 0.001) were confirmed as independent predictors for overall survival. Addition of static and/or dynamic alpha-fetoprotein variable resulted in higher time-dependent area under the curves. Notably, in patients with more favourable prognosis, AFP-slope prior to therapy was a slightly stronger predictor for overall survival compared with static alpha-fetoprotein values.

CONCLUSION

Static and dynamic alpha-fetoprotein variables prior to therapy are predictive for overall survival of hepatocellular carcinoma patients. Addition of AFP-slope to established prognostic parameters might improve prognostic classification for a subgroup of hepatocellular carcinoma patients with preserved liver function and without portal vein tumour thrombosis.

A 2020 update on liver transplant for hepatocellular carcinoma

INTRODUCTION

Hepatocellular carcinoma is the most frequent liver tumor and is associated with chronic liver disease in 90% of cases. In selected cases, liver transplantation represents an effective therapy with excellent overall survival.

AREA COVERED

Since the introduction of Milan criteria in 1996, numerous alternative selection systems to LT for HCC patients have been proposed. Debate remains about how best to select HCC patients for transplant and how to prioritize them on the waiting list.

EXPERT OPINION

The selection of the best scoring system to propose in the context of LT for HCC is far to be identified. In this review, we analyze and categorize the various selection systems, assessing their roles in the different decisional phases.

Liver Transplantation Beyond Milan Criteria

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the leading causes of cancer-related death worldwide, being the fifth most common cancer and the third most common cause of cancer-related mortality. The incidence of HCC has been rising in the USA over the last 20 years. Liver transplantation is an optimal treatment option, as it eliminates HCC as well as the underlying liver disease. The Milan criteria (1 lesion greater than or equal to 2 cm and less than or equal to 5 cm, or up to 3 lesions, each greater than or equal to 1 cm and less than or equal to 3 cm) have been adopted by many transplant societies worldwide as the criteria to determine whether patients with HCC can move forward with liver transplantation. However, many believe that the Milan criteria may be too strict in regard to its size requirements for lesions. This has led to a number of expanded criteria for liver transplantation, concerning both overall size and number of lesions, as well as incorporation of other markers of tumor biology. Tumor markers, such as alpha-fetoprotein, can also be used to follow treatment of HCC and possibly exclude patients from transplant. HCC presenting beyond Milan criteria can also be down-staged with locoregional therapy. Monitoring response to locoregional therapy and longer wait times after locoregional therapy prior to transplant can serve as surrogate markers of tumor biology as well.

Changes in Tumor Markers and Their Implications in Selecting Liver Transplantation for Patients With Hepatocellular Carcinoma

BACKGROUND AND AIM

It has been suggested that tumor markers can provide additional information over tumor size and number-based liver transplantation (LT) criteria. We aimed to assess if changes in tumor markers are associated with the risk of tumor recurrence after LT for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) who received loco-regional therapies (LRTs).

METHODS

A total of 129 patients who received LT with pre-LT LRTs for HCC were analyzed. Milan criteria and tumor markers, alpha-fetoprotein, and protein induced by vitamin K antagonist II, at diagnosis and at transplant were assessed. The primary outcome was tumor recurrence.

RESULTS

When patients were stratified by radiologic criteria, cumulative recurrence rates at 3 years for patients who were not down-staged (outside Milan to outside Milan), progressed (within Milan to outside Milan), down-staged (outside Milan to within Milan), and bridged (within Milan to within Milan) were 66.7%, 58.3%, 18.7%, and 8.5%, respectively (P < .001). Among patients who were transplanted within Milan criteria at transplant (n = 113), cumulative recurrence rates at 3 years were highest for those with persistently high tumor markers (high to high, 21.7%), followed by those with increase in tumor markers (low to high, 11.1%), those with normalization of tumor markers (high to low, 5.6%), and those with persistently low tumor markers (low to low, 0%), respectively, after LRTs (P = .035).

CONCLUSIONS

Changes of tumor markers can provide additional information on the risk of recurrence after LT among HCC patients who received LRTs, indicating that they could be used to refine current LT selection criteria.

Identification of an Upper Limit of Tumor Burden for Downstaging in Candidates with Hepatocellular Cancer Waiting for Liver Transplantation: A West-East Collaborative Effort

Abstract: Since the introduction of Milan Criteria, all scoring models describing the prognosis of hepatocellular cancer (HCC) after liver transplantation (LT) have been exclusively based on characteristics available at surgery, therefore neglecting the intention-to-treat principles. This study aimed at developing an intention-to-treat model through a competing-risk analysis. Using data available at first referral, an upper limit of tumor burden for downstaging was identified beyond which successful LT becomes an unrealistic goal. Twelve centers in Europe, United States, and Asia (Brussels, Sapienza Rome, Padua, Columbia University New York, Innsbruck, Medanta-The Medicity Dehli, Hong Kong, Kyoto, Kaohsiung Taiwan, Mainz, Fukuoka, Shulan Hospital Hangzhou) created a Derivation (n = 2318) and a Validation Set (n = 773) of HCC patients listed for LT between January2000-March 2017. In the Derivation Set, the competing-risk analysis identified two independent covariables predicting post-transplant HCC-related death: combined HCC number and diameter (SHR = 1.15; p < 0.001) and alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) (SHR = 1.80; p < 0.001). WE-DS Model showed good diagnostic performances at internal and external validation. The identified upper limit of tumor burden for downstaging was AFP ≤ 20 ng/mL and up-to-twelve as sum of HCC number and diameter; AFP = 21-200 and up-to-ten; AFP = 201-500 and up-to-seven; AFP = 501-1000 and up-to-five. The WE-DS Model proposed here, based on morphologic and biologic data obtained at first referral in a large international cohort of HCC patients listed for LT, allowed identifying an upper limit of tumor burden for downstaging beyond which successful LT, following downstaging, results in a futile transplantation.

Developments in predictive biomarkers for hepatocellular carcinoma therapy

Introduction: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the most common primary tumor of the liver and the third largest cause of cancer-relateddeaths worldwide. Potentially curative treatments (surgical resection, radiofrequency or liver transplantation) are only available for few patients, while transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) or systemic agents are the best treatments for intermediate and advanced stage disease. The identification of markers that allow us to choose the best treatment for the patient is urgent.Areas covered: In this review we summarize the potential biological markers to predict the efficacy of all treatment available in patients with HCC and discuss anew biomarker with ahigher potential of success in the next future.Expert opinion: HCC is aheterogeneous disease. Tumors are heterogeneous in terms of genetic alteration,with spatial heterogeneity in cellular density, necrosis and angiogenesis.This heterogeneity may affect prognosis and treatment. Tumor heterogeneity can be difficult to quantify with traditional imaging due to subjective assessment of images; the same for sampling biopsy, which evaluates only asmall part of the tumor. We think that combining multi-OMICSwith radiomics represents apromising strategy for evaluating tumor heterogenicity and for identifying biomarkers of response and prognosis.

Biology and significance of alpha-fetoprotein in hepatocellular carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the most common causes of cancer-related deaths globally due, in part, to the majority of patients being diagnosed with intermediate or advanced stage disease. Our increased understanding of the heterogeneous molecular pathogenesis of HCC has led to significant developments in novel targeted therapies. Despite these advances, there remains a high unmet need for new treatment options. HCC is a complex disease with multiple pathogenic mechanisms caused by a variety of risk factors, making it difficult to characterize with a single biomarker. In fact, numerous biomarkers have been studied in HCC, but alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) remains the most widely used and accepted serum marker since its discovery over 60 years ago. This review summarizes the most relevant studies associated with the regulation of AFP at the gene and protein levels; the pathophysiology of AFP as a pro-proliferative protein; and the correlation of AFP with molecular HCC subclasses, the vascular endothelial growth factor pathway and angiogenesis. Also described are the historical and current uses of AFP for screening and surveillance, diagnosis, its utility as a prognostic and predictive biomarker and its role as a tumour antigen in HCC. Taken together, these data demonstrate the relevance of AFP for patients with HCC and identify several remaining questions that will benefit from future research.

Hepatocellular carcinoma - time to take the ticket

Hepatocellular carcinoma is one of the leading malignancies worldwide. Early detection of hepatocellular carcinoma and its management in the form of liver transplantation offers an attractive treatment option. The Milan criteria, proposed by Mazzaferro et al, have been the standard for selecting patients with hepatocellular carcinoma for transplantation. Recently, several studies have shown that even patients selected outside the Milan criteria can undergo transplantation with a relatively good outcome. This article examines the currently existing criteria other than the Milan criteria and also evaluates use of alpha-fetoprotein and positron emission tomography scans to predict the chance of recurrence.

Is It Time to Reconsider the Milan Criteria for Selecting Patients With Hepatocellular Carcinoma for Deceased-Donor Liver Transplantation?

Liver transplantation (LT) is considered the optimal treatment for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) because it removes tumor as well as the underlying cirrhotic liver. Because of a global organ shortage, LT for patients with HCC is limited to patients with expected survival comparable to that of nonmalignant indications. Therefore, identifying patients with lower rates of HCC recurrence and higher rates of survival is critical. International guidelines have considered the Milan Criteria (MC) the standard for selecting patients with HCC for deceased-donor LT (DDLT). However, several alternative criteria have been reported in the Western world. Interestingly, the two most recent models combining α-fetoprotein level, number of nodules, and size of the largest nodule have been shown to outperform MC in identifying patients with low risk of HCC recurrence or those who will survive for 5 years after liver transplantation. In addition, new models overcome limitations of MC in improving classification of high- versus low-risk patients with HCC for DDLT. These recent scoring systems also provide clinicians with user-friendly tools to better identify patients at lower risk of recurrence. Conclusion: Although most Western countries still select patients based on MC, there is a mounting change in recent practice patterns regarding the selection of patients with HCC for DDLT. Herein, we describe how alternative criteria should lead to reconsideration of MC as it applies to selecting patients with HCC for DDLT in international guidelines.

Serum biomarkers and risk of hepatocellular carcinoma recurrence after liver transplantation

Liver transplantation (LT) is the only potentially curative treatment for selected patients with cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) who are not candidates for resection. When the Milan criteria are strictly applied, 75% to 85%of 3- to 4-year actuarial survival rates are achieved, but up to 20% of the patients experience HCC recurrence after transplantation. The Milan criteria are based on the preoperative tumor macromorphology, tumor size and number on computed tomography or magnetic resonance imaging that neither correlate well with posttransplant histological study of the liver explant nor accurately predict HCC recurrence after LT, since they do not include objective measures of tumor biology. Preoperative biological markers, including alpha-fetoprotein, des-gamma-carboxiprothrombin or neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio, can predict the risk for HCC recurrence after transplantation. These biomarkers have been proposed as surrogate markers of tumor differentiation and vascular invasion, with varied risk magnitudes depending on the defined cutoffs. Different studies have shown that the combination of one or several biomarkers integrated into prognostic models predict the risk of HCC recurrence after LT more accurately than Milan criteria alone. In this review, we focus on the potential utility of these serum biological markers to improve the performance of Milan criteria to identify patients at high risk of tumoral recurrence after LT.

Serological Risk Index Based on Alpha-Fetoprotein and C-Reactive Protein to Indicate Futile Liver Transplantation Among Patients with Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study was to establish a preoperatively available serological risk index using alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and C-reactive protein (CRP) for predicting oncologically futile liver transplantation (LT) in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients.

METHODS

A total of 119 liver transplant patients with HCC were retrospectively analyzed. The prognostic impact of clinical and histopathologic factors including pre-LT serum AFP and CRP values was determined.

RESULTS

Apart from microvascular tumor invasion (MVI; odds ratio [OR] 15.77), pretransplant serum levels of AFP > 100 ng/ml (OR 13.31) and CRP > 0.8 mg/dl (OR 13.97) were identified as independent predictors of HCC recurrence. The cumulative risk of HCC relapse at 5 years post-LT was 2.3% in low serological tumor activity (STA) index (AFP ≤ 100 ng/ml + CRP ≤ 0.8 mg/dl), 17.1% in intermediate STA (AFP ≤ 100 ng/ml or CRP ≤ 0.8 mg/dl), and 91.6% in high STA index (AFP > 100 ng/ml + CRP > 0.8 mg/dl; p < 0.001), respectively. High STA index was identified as most powerful pre-LT available predictor of MVI (OR 15.31) and posttransplant HCC recurrence (OR 54.44). Five-year recurrence-free survival rate in Milan Out patients with high STA was 0%, compared to 91.7% and 83.6% in those with low or intermediate STA index (p < 0.001), respectively.

CONCLUSION

Our proposed serological risk index based on pretransplant serum AFP and CRP values is able to predict oncologically futile LT among advanced HCC patients.

Advances in predicting the prognosis of hepatocellular carcinoma recipients after liver transplantation

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the most prevalent malignant tumors worldwide. Liver transplantation (LT) is known as a curative and therapeutic modality. However, the survival rates of recipients after LT are still not good enough because of tumor recurrence. To improve the survival rates of recipients after LT, identifying predictive factors for prognosis after LT and establishing a model assessing prognosis are very important to HCC patients. There has recently been a lot of clinical and basic research on recurrence and prognosis after LT. Progress has been made, especially in selection criteria for LT recipients and risk factors for predicting prognosis after LT. Hangzhou criteria, in line with China's high current incidence rate of primary liver, are first proposed by Chinese scholars of LT, and are accepted world-wide, and make an important contribution to the development of LT.

Transplantation for hepatocellular cancer: pushing to the limits?

Milan criteria (MC) represents the cornerstone in the selection of patients with hepatocellular cancer (HCC) waiting for liver transplantation (LT). MC represent the precursor of the scores based on the idea of "utility": in other terms, the scoring systems typically used in the field of LT oncology present the exclusive aim of selecting the cases with the best post-LT outcomes. However, some other scores have been proposed specifically investigating the risk of death or tumour progression during the waiting list. In this case, the selection process is connected with the idea of "priority": patients at higher risk for drop-out (DO) should be selected, prioritising them or, conversely, deciding to de-list them due to the high risk of post-LT futile transplant. Lastly, models based on the concept of "benefit", namely the balancing between priority and utility, have been recently created. The present review aims to examine these three different types of scoring systems, trying to underline their pro and cons in the allocation process of HCC patients.

Hangzhou criteria are more accurate than Milan criteria in predicting long-term survival after liver transplantation for HCC in Germany

BACKGROUND

Milan criteria are used for patient selection in liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Hangzhou criteria have been shown in China to enable access to liver transplantation for more patients when compared to Milan criteria without negative effects on long-term survival. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the Hangzhou criteria in a German cohort.

METHODS

One hundred fifty-nine patients transplanted for HCC between 1975 and 2010 were investigated. Patients were categorized into four groups depending on the fulfillment of Milan and Hangzhou criteria. General and tumor baseline characteristics were compared. Overall and tumor-free survival rates were investigated with the Kaplan-Meier analysis.

RESULTS

One-, 3-, 5-, and 10-year survival rates for patients fulfilling Milan criteria (n = 68) were 89.7, 83.7, 75.8, and 62.1%, respectively, versus 89.8, 82.2, 75.2, and 62.6% for patients fulfilling Hangzhou criteria (n = 109) (p = 0.833). When comparing patients exceeding Milan or Hangzhou criteria, survival rates were 75.3, 53.2, 48.1, and 41.1% versus 63.3, 31.4, 26.9, and 22.1%, respectively (p = 0.019). The comparison of tumor-free survival rates in patients fulfilling Milan or Hangzhou criteria was statistically not significant (p = 0.785), whereas the comparison of the groups exceeding the criteria showed significantly worse survival for patients outside Hangzhou criteria (p = 0.007). The proportion of patients fulfilling Hangzhou criteria (68.6%) was significantly larger as compared to the proportion fulfilling Milan criteria (42.8%) (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Hangzhou criteria are more accurate in predicting long-term survival after liver transplantation for HCC in Germany. Deployment of the Hangzhou criteria for patient selection could enlarge the pool of transplantable patients.

Utility of Tumor Burden Score to Stratify Prognosis of Patients with Hepatocellular Cancer: Results of 4759 Cases from ITA.LI.CA Study Group

BACKGROUND

Dichotomous models like Milan Criteria represent the routinely used tools for predicting the outcome of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, a paradigm shift from a dichotomous to continuous prognostic stratification should represent a good strategy for improving the prediction process. Recently, the tumor burden score (TBS) has been proposed for selecting patients with colorectal liver metastases. To date, TBS has not been validated in a large HCC population. The main objective of this study was to evaluate the prognostic power of TBS in an HCC population treated with different curative and palliative modalities.

METHODS

Prospectively collected data from consecutive HCC patients managed in 24 institutions participating in the ITA.LI.CA group between Jan 2002 and Mar 2015 were analyzed (n = 4759). A sub-analysis focused on 3909 patients with the radiological evidence of vascular invasion or metastatic disease was also performed.

RESULTS

TBS demonstrated the best discriminative ability when compared to MC and other tumor-specific scores. At multivariable Cox regression analysis, TBS was an independent risk factor of overall survival, with a 6% increased risk for patient death for each point increase in TBS. At survival analysis, when TBS ≥ 8 was connected with MELD ≥ 15 and alpha-fetoprotein ≥ 1000 ng/mL, patients presenting all these three risk factors presented the worst results (p value < 0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

Survival prediction of HCC patients was very well done using TBS model, even stratifying the population in relation to the presence of metastases and/or vascular invasion. TBS model was the best in terms of discriminatory ability and goodness of fit when compared with other continuous or binary variables. Its incorporation in a model composed by tumor- and liver function-related variables further increases its survival prediction.

Platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio in the setting of liver transplantation for hepatocellular cancer: A systematic review and meta-analysis

AIM

To perform a systematic review and meta-analysis on platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) as a risk factor for post-transplant hepatocellular cancer (HCC) recurrence.

METHODS

A systematic literature search was performed using PubMed. Participants of any age and sex, who underwent liver transplantation for HCC were considered following these criteria: (1) studies comparing pre-transplant low vs high PLR values; (2) studies reporting post-transplant recurrence rates; and (3) if more than one study was reported by the same institute, only the most recent was included. The primary outcome measure was set for HCC recurrence after transplantation.

RESULTS

A total of 5 articles, published between 2014 and 2017, fulfilled the selection criteria. As for the quality of the reported studies, all the investigated articles presented an overall high quality. A total of 899 cases were investigated: 718 cases (80.0%) were males. Three studies coming from European countries and one from Japan presented HCV as the main cause of cirrhosis. On the opposite, one Chinese study presented a greater incidence of HBV-related cirrhotic cases. In all the studies apart one, the PLR cut-off value of 150 was reported. At meta-analysis, high PLR value was associated with a significant increase in recurrence after transplantation (OR = 3.33; 95%CI: 1.78-6.25; P < 0.001). A moderate heterogeneity was observed among the identified studies according to the Higgins I2 statistic value.

CONCLUSION

Pre-transplant high PLR values are connected with an increased risk of post-operative recurrence of hepatocellular cancer. More studies are needed for better clarify the biological mechanisms of this results.

Survival outcomes of liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with normal, high and very high preoperative alpha-fetoprotein levels

AIM

To investigate the impact of alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) on long-term recurrence rate and overall survival and we also aimed to define the level of AFP leading to a higher risk of disease recurrence and affecting patient survival.

METHODS

Data of adult patients who received liver transplant (LT) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) at our hospital from January 2000 to December 2013 were reviewed. Reviewed data included demographic characteristics, preoperative AFP level, operative details, follow-up details, and survival outcomes. Patients were mostly listed for LT based on Milan or UCSF criteria. For the purpose of this study, normal AFP level was defined as AFP value < 10 ng/mL, high AFP level was defined as AFP value ≥ 10 to < 400 ng/mL, and very high AFP level was defined as AFP ≥ 400 ng/mL. The patients were divided into these 3 groups accordingly. Survival rates were plotted as Kaplan-Meier curves and compared by log-rank analysis. Continuous variables were expressed as median (interquartile range). Categorical variables were compared by Spearman's test. Discriminative analysis was used to define the lowest value of AFP that could affect the overall survival in study population. Statistical significance was defined by a P value of < 0.05.

RESULTS

Totally 250 adult patients underwent LT for HCC in the study period. Eight-four of them received deceased-donor LT and 166 had living-donor LT. The patients were divided into 3 groups: Group A, AFP < 10 ng/mL (n = 83); Group B, AFP ≥ 10 to < 400 ng/mL (n = 131); Group C, AFP ≥ 400 ng/mL (n = 36). The commonest etiology was hepatitis-B-related cirrhosis. The Model for End-stage Liver Disease scores in these groups were similar (median, 13 vs 13 vs 12; P = 0.745). The time to operation in Group A was longer (median, 94 vs 31 vs 35 d; P = 0.001). The groups were similar in hospital mortality (P = 0.626) and postoperative complication (P = 0.702). Pathology of explants showed that the 3 groups had similar numbers of tumor nodules, but the tumors in Group C were larger (A: 2.5 cm, B: 3.0 cm, C: 4.0 cm; P = 0.003). Group C had a bigger proportion of patients who were beyond Milan criteria (P = 0.010). Poor differentiation and vascular permeation were also more common in this group (P = 0.017 and P = 0.003 respectively). It also had poorer 5-year survival (A: 85.5%, B: 82.4%, C: 66%; P = 0.029). The 5-year disease-free survival was 84.3% in Group A, 80.1% in Group B, and 61.1% in Group C. Receiver operating characteristic area under the curve for AFP in predicting tumor recurrence was 0.685. The selected cut-off value was 54 ng/mL for AFP (C-index 0.685; 95%CI: 0.592-0.779; sensitivity 0.595; specificity 0.687). On discriminative analysis, AFP value of 105 ng/mL was shown to affect the overall survival of the patients.

CONCLUSION

HCC patients with a high preoperative AFP level had inferior survival after LT. AFP level of 54 ng/mL was associated with disease recurrence, and AFP level of 105 ng/mL was found to be the cut-off value for overall survival difference.

The growing impact of alpha-fetoprotein in the field of liver transplantation for hepatocellular cancer: time for a revolution

The role of alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) in the specific setting of the diagnosis and prognosis of patients with hepatocellular cancer (HCC) waiting for liver transplantation (LT) is still controversial. Recently, a marked interest for this marker has been reported, mainly related to its ability to predict the outcome of HCC patients after LT. The growing number of papers in PubMed indicates that AFP has begun a "second life" in the particular context of LT. Looking at the most recent International Guidelines on HCC, it looks obvious that time is ripe to reevaluate the value of AFP in relation to its prognostic ability to identify HCC patients at high-risk for drop-out before and recurrence after LT. Many discrepancies exist worldwide regarding the use of biomarkers in HCC. In contrast to the Western world, AFP is widely used in Asian countries, the reason why being unclear. Indeed, in the (merely Western-dominated) HCC treatment algorithms, the role of AFP as a prognostic tumor marker is still considered to be "under investigation". One should however realize that the underestimation of the value of AFP in the LT context will hamper further refinements of both the liver allograft allocation process and the selection of the best candidates for this procedure. Moreover, AFP has an important role to play in the monitoring of bridging and/or downstaging procedures bringing eventually the patient to transplantation. So, time has come to reconsider the role and value of AFP (dynamics) in the field of transplant oncology.

Radiological response and inflammation scores predict tumour recurrence in patients treated with transarterial chemoembolization before liver transplantation

AIM

To investigate the prognostic value of the radiological response after transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) and inflammatory markers in patients affected by hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) awaiting liver transplantation (LT).

METHODS

We retrospectively evaluated the preoperative predictors of HCC recurrence in 70 patients treated with conventional (n = 16) or doxorubicin-eluting bead TACE (n = 54) before LT. The patient and tumour characteristics, including the static and dynamic alpha-fetoprotein, neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) measurements, were recorded. Treatment response was classified according to the modified Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumours (mRECIST) and the European Association for the Study of the Liver (EASL) criteria as complete response (CR), partial response (PR), stable disease or progressive disease. After examination of the explanted livers, histological necrosis was classified as complete (100% of the cumulative tumour area), partial (50%-99%) or minimal (< 50%) and was correlated with the preoperative radiological findings.

RESULTS

According to the pre-TACE radiological evaluation, 22/70 (31.4%) and 12/70 (17.1%) patients were beyond Milan and University of San Francisco (UCSF) criteria, respectively. After TACE procedures, the objective response (CR + PR) rates were 71.4% and 70.0% according to mRECIST and EASL criteria, respectively. The agreement between the two guidelines in defining the radiological response was rated as very good both for the overall and target lesion response (weighted k-value: 0.98 and 0.93, respectively). Complete and partial histological necrosis were achieved in 14/70 (20.0%) and 28/70 (40.0%) patients, respectively. Using histopathology as the reference standard, mRECIST criteria correctly classified necrosis in 72.9% (51/70) of patients and EASL criteria in 68.6% (48/70) of cases. The mRECIST non-response to TACE [Exp(b) = 9.2, p = 0.012], exceeding UCSF criteria before TACE [Exp(b) = 4.7, p = 0.033] and a preoperative PLR > 150 [Exp(b) = 5.9, p = 0.046] were independent predictors of tumour recurrence.

CONCLUSION

The radiological response and inflammatory markers are predictive of tumour recurrence and allow the proper selection of TACE-treated candidates for LT.

Hepatocellular carcinoma beyond Milan criteria: Management and transplant selection criteria

Liver transplantation (LT) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) has been established as a standard treatment in selected patients for the last two and a half decades. After initially dismal outcomes, the Milan criteria (MC) (single HCC ≤ 5 cm or up to 3 HCCs ≤ 3 cm) have been adopted worldwide to select HCC patients for LT, however cumulative experience has shown that MC can be too strict. This has led to the development of numerous expanded criteria worldwide. Morphometric expansions on MC as well as various criteria which incorporate biomarkers as surrogates of tumor biology have been described. HCC that presents beyond MC initially can be downstaged with locoregional therapy (LRT). Post-LRT monitoring aims to identify candidates with favorable tumor behavior. Similarly, tumor marker levels as response to LRT has been utilized as surrogate of tumor biology. Molecular signatures of HCC have also been correlated to outcomes; these have yet to be incorporated into HCC-LT selection criteria formally. The ongoing discrepancy between organ demand and supply makes patient selection the most challenging element of organ allocation. Further validation of extended HCC-LT criteria models and pre-LT treatment strategies are required.

Contribution of alpha-fetoprotein in liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma

Alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) is the main tumor biomarker available for the management of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Although it is neither a good screening test nor an accurate diagnostic tool for HCC, it seems to be a possible prognostic marker. However, its contribution in liver transplantation for HCC has not been fully determined, although its use to predict recurrence after liver transplantation has been underlined by international societies. In an era of organ shortages, it could also have a key role in the selection of patients eligible for liver transplantation. Yet unanswered questions remain. First, the cut-off value of serum AFP above which liver transplantation should not be performed is still a subject of debate. We show that a concentration of 1000 ng/mL could be an exclusion criterion, whereas values of < 15 ng/mL indicate patients with an excellent prognosis whatever the size and number of tumors. Monitoring the dynamics of AFP could also prove useful. However, evidence is lacking regarding the values that should be used. Today, the real input of AFP seems to be its integration into new criteria to select patients eligible for a liver transplantation. These recent tools have associated AFP values with morphological criteria, thus refining pre-existing criteria, such as Milan, University of California, San Francisco, or “up-to-seven”. We provide a review of the different criteria submitted within the past years. Finally, AFP can be used to monitor recurrence after transplantation, although there is little evidence to support this claim. Future challenges will be to draft new international guidelines to implement the use of AFP as a selection tool, and to determine a clear cut-off value above which liver transplantation should not be performed.

HCC-Associated Liver Transplantation - Where Are the Limits and What Are the New Regulations?

BACKGROUND

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) represents an increasing health burden worldwide and a challenging disease both in terms of diagnosis and treatment.

METHODS

The literature available on PubMed for the period of 1990-2016 was reviewed with reference to liver allocation, HCC, liver transplantation (LT), and prediction, and the allocation rules of the German Transplant Act were reviewed.

RESULTS

Due to etiological and geographical diversity, HCC is not a homogeneous disease. In the vast majority of patients, HCC develops as a complication of chronic liver disease and cirrhosis. While most patients present with advanced HCC for which palliative strategies are the only available option, LT is the best treatment approach as it not only eliminates the diseased liver and the underlying hepatocarcinogenic mechanisms but also the cancer. The decision for LT is not an easy one to make, because outcome prediction, staging, bridging therapy, and recurrence prevention are difficult and are estimated against the background of the scarce resource of donor organs which are also competitively sought after by patients suffering from non-neoplastic terminal liver diseases, raising the issue of equality of chances in a rationed therapeutic modality. Currently, the Milan criteria are the best evaluated decision tool for LT, but many issues such as down-staging, favorable biological behavior during treatment, expansion of the morphological classification, molecular predictors, and individualized approaches are not yet satisfactorily addressed.

CONCLUSION

In order to provide a fair and effective approach to LT in HCC, the employed allocation rules require continuous development and scientific evaluation. Recently, the allocation rules for standard exception priority according to the German Transplant Act have been revised to improve patient selection for LT in HCC.

Serologic and molecular biomarkers for recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma after liver transplantation: A systematic review and meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION

Recurrence after liver transplantation (LT) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a major cause of mortality. Knowledge on biomarkers may contribute to better surveillance based on the patients' risk of recurrence. Reviewing the literature, we aimed to identify serological and molecular biomarkers for recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma after liver transplantation.

METHODS

A literature search was performed in the databases PubMed and Scopus to identify observational studies evaluating serological or molecular biomarkers for recurrence of HCC after LT using adjusted analysis to correct for confounding.

RESULTS

Of 502 records, 69 mainly retrospective studies were included with a total of 15,213 patients. Of these, 41 studies were suitable for meta-analyses, which showed that the serum markers pre-transplant α-fetoprotein (AFP) (hazard ratio (HR) 2.69 [2.08-3.47]), pre-transplant des-gamma-carboxy prothrombin (DCP) (HR 5.99 [3.27-10.98]), and allelic imbalance in microsatellites in DNA of tumor tissue (HR 13.49 [3.17-57.30]) were related to recurrence.

CONCLUSIONS

AFP, DCP and allelic imbalance in microsatellites may be used to predict recurrence. Together with other modalities, biomarkers may be used in future transplantation criteria to optimize selection of suitable patients.

Selection of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma for liver transplantation: Past and future

The aim of liver transplantation (LT) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is to ensure a rate of disease-free survival similar to that of patients transplanted due to benign disease. Therefore, we are forced to adopt strict criteria when selecting candidates for LT and prioritizing patients on the waiting list (WL), to have clarified indications for bridging therapy for groups at risk for progression or recurrence, and to establish certain limits for downstaging therapies. Although the Milan criteria (MC) remain the standard and most employed criteria for indication of HCC patients for LT by far, in the coming years, criteria will be consolidated that take into account not only data regarding the size/volume and number of tumors but also their biology. This criteria will mainly include the alpha fetoprotein (AFP) values and, in view of their wide variability, any of the published logarithmic models for the selection of candidates for LT. Bridging therapy is necessary for HCC patients on the WL who meet the MC and have the possibility of experiencing a delay for LT greater than 6 mo or any of the known risk factors for recurrence. It is difficult to define single AFP values that would indicate bridging therapy (200, 300 or 400 ng/mL); therefore, it is preferable to rely on the criteria of a French AFP model score > 2. Other single indications for bridging therapy include a tumor diameter greater than 3 cm, more than one tumor, and having an AFP slope greater than 15 ng/mL per month or > 50 ng/mL for three months during strict monitoring while on the WL. When considering the inclusion of patients on the WL who do not meet the MC, it is mandatory to determine their eligibility for downstaging therapy prior to inclusion. The upper limit for this therapy could be one lesion up to 8 cm, 2-3 lesions with a total tumor diameter up to 8 cm, or a total tumor volume of 115 cm³. Lastly, liver allocation and the prioritization of patients with HCC on the WL should take into account the recently described HCC model for end-stage liver disease, which considers hepatic function, HCC size and the number and the log of AFP values. This formula has been calibrated with the survival data of non-HCC patients and produces a dynamic and more accurate assessment model.

Tumor DNA Index and α-Fetoprotein Level Define Outcome following Liver Transplantation for Advanced Hepatocellular Carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) beyond the Milan criteria are expected to have inferior outcome after liver transplantation (LT) and are therefore currently not considered for LT in many countries. The purpose of this study was to identify predictive factors for overall survival following LT for HCC that may support the Milan criteria in the selection of appropriate transplant candidates.

METHODS

Clinicopathological data on 364 patients with HCC who underwent LT between 1989 and 2010 were retrospectively evaluated. Predictors of overall survival in the entire cohort as well as in subsets of patients within (n = 214) and beyond (n = 150) the Milan criteria were analyzed.

RESULTS

Multivariate analysis in the entire cohort identified DNA index >1.5 (p < 0.0001), α-fetoprotein level (AFP) >200 ng/ml (p = 0.005), and HCC beyond the Milan criteria (p = 0.002) to be associated with worse overall survival. In patients within the Milan criteria (median survival: 170 months), DNA index >1.5 (p < 0.0001) was the only predictor of worse overall survival in multivariate analysis. In patients beyond the Milan criteria (median survival: 44 months), DNA index >1.5, AFP >200 ng/ml, microvascular invasion, patient age >60 years, and DNA index >1.5 concomitant with AFP >200 ng/ml were associated with worse overall survival in univariate analysis. Multivariate analysis identified DNA index >1.5 concomitant with AFP >200 ng/ml (p < 0.0001) as the only independent predictor of worse overall survival. Consequently, patients beyond the Milan criteria with a combined favorable DNA index ≤1.5 and AFP ≤200 ng/ml had a median survival (147 months) comparable to that of patients within the Milan criteria.

CONCLUSIONS

DNA index and AFP level predict overall survival following LT in patients with advanced HCC beyond the Milan criteria. A combined assessment of these markers during the evaluation of transplant candidates can contribute to the selection of patients with HCC who may benefit from LT independently of their tumor burden.

Recurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma after liver transplantation: an update

Liver transplantation is the only curative alternative for selected patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) who are not eligible for resection and/or with decompensated cirrhosis. According to Milan criteria the 5-year survival rate is 70-85%, with a recurrence-free survival of 75%. However, HCC recurrence rate after liver transplantation remains a significant problem in the clinical practice. The prognosis in patients with HCC recurrence is poor. The treatment of choice for HCC recurrence is surgery, but it seems that a systemic treatment based on combination of an mTOR inhibitor with sorafenib can be used. Data on safety and efficacy are limited, clinical monitoring is necessary. The aim of this review is to underline the main concerns, pitfalls and warnings for these patients.

Selection tool alpha-fetoprotein for patients waiting for liver transplantation: How to easily manage a fractal algorithm

Alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) behavior in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) waiting for liver transplant (LT) represents a perfect biological example of a fractal model in which its progressive modification and possible future prediction of its values are very hard to capture. As a consequence, AFP represents a useful but poorly manageable tool to increase the ability to better select HCC patients waiting for LT. Trying to find a "fil-rouge" in the recent literature, no definitive answers can be done to several open questions: (1) the best AFP value to adopt; (2) the best cut-off measurement; and (3) the best way to comfortably capture the effective, time-related, fluctuations of this biological marker. More, structured and prospective, studies using serial determination of AFP values within and without the context of locoregional therapies are needed in order to find the "ideal" (static and dynamic) cut-off values allowing to respond to all the still open questions in this field of transplant oncology.

A score model for predicting post-liver transplantation survival in HBV cirrhosis-related hepatocellular carcinoma recipients: a single center 5-year experience

BACKGROUND

The prognostic prediction of liver transplantation (LT) guides the donor organ allocation. However, there is currently no satisfactory model to predict the recipients' outcome, especially for the patients with HBV cirrhosis-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The present study was to develop a quantitative assessment model for predicting the post-LT survival in HBV-related HCC patients.

METHODS

Two hundred and thirty-eight LT recipients at the Liver Transplant Center, First Affiliated Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine between 2008 and 2013 were included in this study. Their post-LT prognosis was recorded and multiple risk factors were analyzed using univariate and multivariate analyses in Cox regression.

RESULTS

The score model was as follows: 0.114X(Child-Pugh score)-0.002X(positive HBV DNA detection time)+0.647X(number of tumor nodules)+0.055X(max diameter of tumor nodules)+0.231XlnAFP+0.437X(tumor differentiation grade). The receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed that the area under the curve of the scoring model for predicting the post-LT survival was 0.887. The cut-off value was 1.27, which was associated with a sensitivity of 72.5% and a specificity of 90.7%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

The quantitative score model for predicting post-LT survival proved to be sensitive and specific.