Trends in the state of nature and their implications for human well-being

Climate change and long-term human behaviour in the Neotropics: an archaeological view from the Global South

In this paper, we argue for the inclusion of archaeology in discussions about how humans have contributed to and dealt with climate change, especially in the long term. We suggest Niche Construction Theory as a suitable framework to that end. In order to take into account both human and environmental variability, we also advocate for a situated perspective that includes the Global South as a source of knowledge production, and the Neotropics as a relevant case study to consider. To illustrate this, we review the mid-Holocene Hypsithermal period in the southern Puna and continental Patagonia, both in southern South America, by assessing the challenges posed by this climate period and the archaeological signatures of the time from a Niche Construction Theory perspective. Finally, we emphasize the importance of these considerations for policymaking. This article is part of the theme issue 'Climate change adaptation needs a science of culture'.

Diversity and distribution patterns of Ecuador’s dung beetles (Coleoptera: Scarabaeinae)

Introduction

Ecuador harbors an astounding number of ecosystems and species. However, anthropogenic land-use changes are the primary drivers of biodiversity loss in major taxonomic groups, especially insects. Among them, the Scarabaeinae subfamily containing dung beetles, is an excellent taxon for studying taxonomic and functional diversity, as they are relatively stable taxonomically and have a wide variety of ecological services. Their distribution is mainly influenced by biogeography and climate as their main ecological and environmental factors will allow us to quantify what aspects of diversity are being impacted under different circumstances and at different scales.

Methods

To understand the main of dung beetle distribution drivers, we analyzed a museum database from the National Institute of Biodiversity, Ecuador (INABIO) of over 5000 dung beetle specimens with 122 species collected throughout the country, we addressed the following questions: i) How does tribe distribution vary across climatic and elevational gradients? and ii) How does functional and taxonomic beta diversity vary across spatial scales? To address them, we focused on three main tribes: Canthonini, Coprini, and Phanaeini. We constructed GLM’s and niche-based models to estimate Ecuador’s distributions based on climate variables to explore potential predictor variables, using tree classification models, along with taxonomic and functional beta diversity across scales.

Results

The main variables influencing dung beetle distribution were elevation, and precipitation. The Phanaeini niche model is significantly better at predicting dung beetle presence throughout Ecuador than Canthonini and Coprini. We found high turnover in functional groups at larger scales, suggesting that dung beetles show high levels of habitat specialization, which associates to our findings where taxonomic beta diversity was higher in the Amazon basin compared to the coastal region. This may be due to the higher rate of dung production in Amazonia. Our findings also suggest that dung beetles are not found in areas above 2000m, mainly because dung beetles are well adapted to warmer and moist climatic regions. Precipitation and elevation are consistently essential variables for predicting Canthonini and Coprini presence, while temperature explains Phanaeini presence. Low levels of species turnover at the regional scale may be because the total species richness in Ecuador is different, where divergence in taxonomic beta diversity between the two regions is an artifact of such differences in richness in Amazonia versus the coast, the distinction is also due to nonrandomly low taxonomic beta diversity levels in the coastal region.

Conclusions

Our results provide an essential framework for evaluating potential dung beetle habitat and diversity at different scales; therefore, by identifying dung beetles’ diversity, combined with considerations of habitat fragmentation, human land-use alteration, and climate change, will be an important next step to inform better and prioritize dung beetle conservation efforts in other countries.

Risk Assessment of Snow Disasters for Animal Husbandry on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau and Influences of Snow Disasters on the Well-Being of Farmers and Pastoralists

In the context of global warming, meteorological disasters occur more frequently in various regions which exert increasing influences on human life. Snow disasters are some of the natural disasters that most seriously affect the development of husbandry on the Qinghai–Tibetan Plateau (QTP), so it is necessary to explore their spatio-temporal variations and perform comprehensive risk assessment. Based on the daily snow depth data set in China, obtained by inversion of satellite remote sensing data, the spatio-temporal variation characteristics of snow disasters on the QTP from 1980 to 2019 were studied. The regional difference in the comprehensive risks of snow disasters for the husbandry on the QTP was evaluated from four perspectives, i.e., the risk of hazard factors, sensitivity of hazard-inducing environments, vulnerability of hazard-affected bodies, and disaster prevention and mitigation capacity. The farmer and pastoralist well-being (FPWB) index in five typical regions was constructed to discuss the possible influences of snow disasters on the FPWB since the 21st century. Results show that, in the last 40 years, the frequency, duration, average snow depth, and grade of snow disasters on the QTP all exhibited significant interannual and interdecadal variabilities, and they also displayed a declining long-term trend. The comprehensive risk of snow disasters for the husbandry on the QTP is low in the north while high in the south. The high-risk zone accounts for 1.54% of the total and is mainly located in Kashgar City in the north-western end of the QTP; the sub-high-risk and medium-risk zones are mainly found in the south of the plateau and are distributed in a tripole pattern, separately covering 15.96% and 16.32% of the total area of the plateau; the north of the plateau mainly belongs to low-risk and sub-low-risk zones, which separately account for 43.06% and 23.12% of the total area of the plateau. Since the beginning of the 21st century, the FPWB in five typical regions, namely, Kashgar (I), Shigatse (II), Nagqu (III), Qamdo (IV), and Yushu (V), has been increasing, while the risk of snow disasters has gradually decreased. Every 1% decrease in the risk of snow disasters corresponded to 0.186%, 0.768%, 0.378%, 0.109%, and 0.03% increases in the FPWB index in the five regions. Snow disasters affect FPWB mainly by directly or indirectly damaging material resources (livestock inventories and meat production) and social and financial resources.

My Parents Taught…Green Was My Growth! The Role of Intergenerational Transmission of Ecological Values in Young Adults' Pro-Environmental Behaviors and Their Psychosocial Mechanisms

Past research on pro-environmental behaviors (PEBs) has identified several psychosocial determinants, ranging from personal values to attitudes—mostly environmental concerns—and norms. Less attention has been devoted to the role of affect and identity processes, until recently, when investigations began into the emotional connections with nature and environmental identity, i.e., one’s self-concept in relation to the natural world. Finally, research into the parent–child transmission of ecological values was recently developed. We aimed to analyze the role of the above-mentioned variables in predicting different PEBs, within a comprehensive framework. We hypothesized a chain relationship between the ecological values of parents and mothers, the ecological values of their children, environmental concerns, affect towards nature, environmental identity, and PEBs, as the final outcomes. In a cross-sectional exploratory study, an online questionnaire was administered to 175 young Italian adults. Validated scales to measure the above variables and socio-demographics were included. The results showed a different pattern of predictors for each PEB. Overall, the importance of the emotional connection with nature and environmental identity in predicting PEBs has clearly emerged. Finally, the role of intergenerational transmission of ecological values in PEBs, with differences between the influence of fathers and mothers, is outlined. The study provides a more integrative view of PEBs by considering the variety of human processes. Theoretical and practical implications of results are discussed.

Molecular and Pigment Analyses Provide Comparative Results When Reconstructing Historic Cyanobacterial Abundances from Lake Sediment Cores

Understanding the historical onset of cyanobacterial blooms in freshwater bodies can help identify their potential drivers. Lake sediments are historical archives, containing information on what has occurred in and around lakes over time. Paleolimnology explores these records using a variety of techniques, but choosing the most appropriate method can be challenging. We compared results obtained from a droplet digital PCR assay targeting a cyanobacterial-specific region of the 16S rRNA gene in sedimentary DNA and cyanobacterial pigments (canthaxanthin, echinenone, myxoxanthophyll and zeaxanthin) analysed using high-performance liquid chromatography in four sediment cores. There were strong positive relationships between the 16S rRNA gene copy concentrations and individual pigment concentrations, but relationships differed among lakes and sediment core depths within lakes. The relationships were more consistent when all pigments were summed, which we attribute to different cyanobacteria species, in different lakes, at different times producing different suites of pigments. Each method had benefits and limitations, which should be taken into consideration during method selection and when interpreting paleolimnological data. We recommend this biphasic approach when making inferences about changes in the entire cyanobacterial community because they yielded complementary information. Our results support the view that molecular methods can yield results similar to traditional paleolimnological proxies when caveats are adequately addressed.

Abundance and Diurnal Time Activity Budget of the Threatened Species White-Headed Ducks (Anatidae: Oxyura leucocephala) in an Unprotected Area, Boussedra Marsh, Northeast Algeria

The white-headed duck is a globally threatened species and its populations have become fragmented and undergone major decline in recent decades. Changes including long-term abundance (five times from 2005 to 2018) and diurnal activity budget (2010−2011 and 2017−2018) with respect to the effect of habitat features at Boussedra marsh (unprotected area) were compiled in order to fill some gaps in the status and trend of North African populations. The population size of the white-headed duck decreased over years from 2010 to 2018 by about 52.81%, and was positively associated with interior vegetation area, but not significantly with water surface area. Trends of population dynamics differed among seasons, and the number was higher in wintering than breeding season. Sleeping (44.93%, 23.74%) and feeding (59.09%, 27.43%) were the dominant diurnal activities at both the years of study, respectively. Boussedra marsh plays an important ecological role as a diurnal forging habitat and reproduction site for this threatened species and as a shelter for other waterfowl.

Conflicting trajectories of landscape transformation in the humid tropical agricultural plantations of the Western Ghats, India

The forest-agricultural landscapes of the humid tropics are transforming in their physical and socio-cultural spaces. Even though the processes of landscape transformation are highly contextual, their drivers, impacts and implications fan out across multiple scales from the local to the global. In the present study, the processes of landscape change, their multi-scalar actors and trajectories are examined in the agricultural plantations of tea, coffee and cardamom within a humid tropical forest of the Western Ghats, India. It employs an integrated multiple-source analysis of data collected through household surveys and interviews, secondary datasets, satellite imageries and litigation documents. The landscape change processes identified in the physical, social and cultural spaces include confiscation of plantations by the state, simplification of agricultural practices or abandonment of cultivation altogether, casualisation and feminisation of labour and non-agricultural diversions such as land speculation and tourism, driven by the global plantation crisis and changes in national and state forest policies. Post-globalisation, there was a high out-migration of labour and a significant decline (43%) of the population in the region. The prominent institutional actors of the state, the planters and the judiciary make these forest-enclosed plantations a highly contested space, with 75% of the area under various conflicts of tenure. These processes and actors had resulted in contrasting trajectories of incipient forest regeneration on the one hand and increased degradation on the other. A contextualized analysis of these trajectories of landscape change in these globally important humid tropical landscapes can valuably inform sustainable natural resource management frameworks.

Evolutionary stability, landscape heterogeneity, and human land-usage shape population genetic connectivity in the Cape Floristic Region biodiversity hotspot

As human-induced change eliminates natural habitats, it impacts genetic diversity and population connectivity for local biodiversity. The South African Cape Floristic Region (CFR) is the most diverse extratropical area for plant biodiversity, and much of its habitat is protected as a UNESCO World Heritage site. There has long been great interest in explaining the underlying factors driving this unique diversity, especially as much of the CFR is endangered by urbanization and other anthropogenic activity. Here, we use a population and landscape genetic analysis of SNP data from the CFR endemic plant Leucadendron salignum or "common sunshine conebush" as a model to address the evolutionary and environmental factors shaping the vast CFR diversity. We found that high population structure, along with relatively deeper and older genealogies, is characteristic of the southwestern CFR, whereas low population structure and more recent lineage coalescence depict the eastern CFR. Population network analyses show genetic connectivity is facilitated in areas of lower elevation and higher seasonal precipitation. These population genetic signatures corroborate CFR species-level patterns consistent with high Pleistocene biome stability and landscape heterogeneity in the southwest, but with coincident instability in the east. Finally, we also find evidence of human land-usage as a significant gene flow barrier, especially in severely threatened lowlands where genetic connectivity has been historically the highest. These results help identify areas where conservation plans can prioritize protecting high genetic diversity threatened by contemporary human activities within this unique cultural UNESCO site.

The effectiveness of protected areas in the Paraná-Paraguay basin in preserving multiple facets of freshwater fish diversity under climate change

Abstract Our objective was to evaluate the effectiveness of protected areas (PAs) in the Paraná-Paraguay basin on multiple facets of ichthyofauna, both currently and in future climate change scenarios, based on reaching the 17% of conserved terrestrial and inland water defined by Aichi Target 11. Analyses were carried out vis-à-vis a distribution of 496 native species, modeling for the present and for the future, and in moderate and pessimistic scenarios of greenhouse gases. We calculated species richness, functional richness, and phylogenetic diversity, overlapping the combination of these facets with the PAs. The results indicate that the current PAs of the Paraná-Paraguay basin are not efficient in protecting the richest areas of ichthyofauna in their multiple facets. While there is a larger overlap between PAs and the richest areas in phylogenetic diversity, the values are too low (2.37%). Currently, the overlap between PAs and areas with larger species richness, functional richness, and phylogenetic diversity is only 1.48%. Although this value can increase for future projections, the values of the indices decrease substantially. The relevant aquatic environments, biological communities, and climate change should be considered as part of the systematic planning of PAs that take into consideration the terrestrial environments and their threats.

Distribution and conservation of species is misestimated if biotic interactions are ignored: the case of the orchid Laelia speciosa

The geographic distribution of species depends on their relationships with climate and on the biotic interactions of the species. Ecological Niche Models (ENMs) mainly consider climatic variables only and may tend to overestimate these distributions, especially for species strongly restricted by biotic interactions. We identified the preference of Laelia speciosa for different host tree species and include this information in an ENM. The effect of habitat loss and climate change on the distribution of these species was also estimated. Although L. speciosa was recorded as epiphyte at six tree species, 96% of the individuals were registered at one single species (Quercus deserticola), which indicated a strong biotic interaction. We included the distribution of this host tree as a biotic variable in the ENM of L. speciosa. The contemporary distribution of L. speciosa is 52,892 km2, which represent 4% of Mexican territory and only 0.6% of the distribution falls within protected areas. Habitat loss rate for L. speciosa during the study period was 0.6% per year. Projections for 2050 and 2070 under optimistic and pessimistic climate change scenarios indicated a severe reduction in its distribution. Climaticaly suitable areas will also shift upwards (200-400 m higher). When estimating the distribution of a species, including its interactions can improve the performance of the ENMs, allowing for more  accurate estimates of the actual distribution of the species, which in turn allows for better conservation strategies.

Perception of Urban Green Areas Associated with Sociodemographic Affiliation, Structural Elements, and Acceptance Stripes

The extensification (opposite of intensification) of urban public green spaces offers great potential for conservation. One major issue for the long-term success of such a measure is, however, its acceptance by the urban population. This contribution presents the results of an image-based online questionnaire that we set to elucidate the role of sociodemographic affiliations regarding the perception of urban green areas. We also asked whether acceptability can be increased by the presence of additional structural elements (sculptures, benches) and “acceptance stripes”, i.e., stripes regularly mowed only at the margins of a natural green space. Regarding structural elements, 40- to 60-year-olds consistently rejected intensely maintained lawns and perceived a lawn as positive only in combination with a sculpture. A regularly mowed acceptance stripe resulted in a positive perception of natural meadows by people with an affinity for city life, classified based on their actual place of residence and/or their social dimension including aspects such as sense of place, familiarity, profession, and interests. Thus, decision-making processes of policy makers must be evaluated together with the urban population and should be assessed multidimensionally, i.e., by considering various criteria (e.g., ecological, social, and aesthetic aspects) in order to meet the requirements of residents and achieve an increase in biodiversity.

The influence of the global electric power system on terrestrial biodiversity

Understanding the relationship between the global electric power sector and biodiversity is central to identifying sustainable pathways to decarbonization. This study examines the relationship between the global electric power sector and threats to biodiversity. The biodiversity footprint of the electric power sector is primarily within the territory where demand for power resides, although substantial regional differences exist. The relationship between supply technologies and threats to biodiversity indicates that a shift to some nonfossil sources could reduce pressures on biodiversity, although there is uncertainty in how threats will scale given current deployment levels of nonfossil sources. The strong territorial link between electric power demand and biodiversity threat provides clear routes for governments to effectively manage biodiversity impacts of electric power transitions.

Given its total contribution to greenhouse gas emissions, the global electric power sector will be required to undergo a fundamental transformation over the next decades to limit anthropogenic climate change to below 2 °C. Implications for biodiversity of projected structural changes in the global electric power sector are rarely considered beyond those explicitly linked to climate change. This study uses a spatially explicit consumption-based accounting framework to examine the impact of demand for electric power on terrestrial vertebrate biodiversity globally. We demonstrate that the biodiversity footprint of the electric power sector is primarily within the territory where final demand for electric power resides, although there are substantial regional differences, with Europe displacing its biodiversity threat along international supply chains. The relationship between size of individual components of the electric power sector and threat to biodiversity indicates that a shift to nonfossil sources, such as solar and wind, could reduce pressures on biodiversity both within the territory where demand for power resides and along international supply chains. However, given the current levels of deployment of nonfossil sources of power, there is considerable uncertainty as to how the impacts of structural changes in the global electric power system will scale. Given the strong territorial link between demand and associated biodiversity impacts, development of strong national governance around the electric power sector represents a clear route to mitigate threats to biodiversity associated with efforts to decarbonize society over the coming century.

The power to detect regional declines in common bird populations using continental monitoring data

Anthropogenic environmental change is driving the rapid loss of biodiversity. Large declines in the abundance of historically common species are now emerging as a major concern. Identifying declining populations through long-term biodiversity monitoring is vital for implementing timely conservation measures. It is, therefore, critical to evaluate the likelihood that persistent long-term population trends of a given size could be detected using existing monitoring data and methods. Here, we test the power to detect declines in Australia's common landbirds using long-term citizen science monitoring. We use spatially explicit simulations of occupancy dynamics and virtual sampling, designed to mimic bird monitoring in better-sampled regions of Australia, to assess likely power in these data to detect trends relevant for conservation. We predict the statistical power for 326 common species that meet minimum requirements for monitoring data across 10 regions of Australia, estimating the number of species for which we would have a high (≥80%) chance of detecting declines of different sizes. The power to detect declines of ≥30% per decade was predicted to be high for at least one-third of the common species in 7 of 10 regions, with a total of 103 (32% of 326) unique species sufficiently monitored in at least one region. These species spanned 12 taxonomic orders, four orders of magnitude in body mass, and a broad diversity of dietary guilds, suggesting the current species pool will likely serve as robust indicators for a broad range of environmental states and pressures. Power was strongly affected by species' detectability, and power to detect even large declines was negligible when species are detected on ≤50% of visits to an occupied site. Predicted power for many species fell just short of the 80% threshold in one or more regions, which suggests an increase in effort targeting these species could greatly enhance the species and regional representation of these data. Against the backdrop of unprecedented biodiversity losses, this study shows how critical evaluation of existing monitoring schemes is valuable both for assessing the contribution of citizen science schemes to biodiversity monitoring and for designing strategic monitoring to significantly improve the knowledge these schemes provide.

Bird Diversity as a Support Decision Tool for Sustainable Management in Temperate Forested Floodplain Landscapes

Sustainably managed forests provide multiple ecosystem services in cultural landscapes, including maintaining biodiversity. Better understanding of the benefits regarding the biodiversity of different silvicultural practices is important for sustainable landscape management. Conservation targets in forested landscapes should be determined by land managers and policy-makers, based on serious ecological research. This study deals with response of bird diversity to three different habitat types of temperate hardwood floodplain forests, which reflect specific forms of forest management. Research was based on long-term field bird census in the years 1998 to 2002 applying the point count method. Data was analysed using regression analysis with dummy variables. The results of the study indicate that hardwood floodplain forest heterogeneity, supported by different types of forest management (old-growth forest protection, group-selection harvesting and forest edge protection), provides large-scale habitat mosaic conditions suitable for many breeding bird species with different ecological niches. This result suggests that comparison of bird diversity response to different forest management types can be used as a decision support tool for sustainable landscape management strategy and local management practices in forested cultural lowland landscapes. Improvements in both regional and local ecological knowledge are generally needed in order to control floodplain land use decisions, which are typically made on the scale of landscape management.

Do we have to choose between feeding the human population and conserving nature? Modelling the global dependence of people on ecosystem services

The ability of the human population to continue growing depends strongly on the ecosystem services provided by nature. Nature, however, is becoming more and more degraded as the number of individuals increases, which could potentially threaten the future well-being of the human population. We use a dynamic model to conceptualise links between the global proportion of natural habitats and human demography, through four categories of ecosystem services (provisioning, regulating, cultural recreational and informational) to investigate the common future of nature and humanity in terms of size and well-being. Our model shows that there is generally a trade-off between the quality of life and human population size and identifies four short-term scenarios, corresponding to three long-term steady states of the model. First, human population could experience declines if nature becomes too degraded and regulating services diminish; second the majority of the population could be in a famine state, where the population continues to grow with minimal food provision. Between these scenarios, a desirable future scenario emerges from the model. It occurs if humans convert enough land to feed all the population, while maintaining biodiversity and ecosystem services. Finally, we find a fourth scenario, which combines famine and a decline in the population because of an overexploitation of land leading to a decrease in food production. Human demography is embedded in natural dynamics; the two factors should be considered together if we are to identify a desirable future for both nature and humans.

Biochem-Env: a platform of biochemistry for research in environmental and agricultural sciences

Biochemical indicators are potent tools to assess ecosystem functioning under anthropic and global pressures. Nevertheless, additional work is needed to improve the methods used for the measurement of these indicators, and for a more relevant interpretation of the obtained results. To face these challenges, the platform Biochem-Env aims at providing innovative and standardized measurement protocols, as well as database and information system favoring result interpretation and opening. Its skills and tools are also offered for expertise, consulting, training, and standardization. In addition, the platform is a service of a French Research Infrastructure for Analysis and Experimentation on Ecosystems, for research in environmental and agricultural sciences.

Setting temporal baselines for biodiversity: the limits of available monitoring data for capturing the full impact of anthropogenic pressures

Temporal baselines are needed for biodiversity, in order for the change in biodiversity to be measured over time, the targets for biodiversity conservation to be defined and conservation progress to be evaluated. Limited biodiversity information is widely recognized as a major barrier for identifying temporal baselines, although a comprehensive quantitative assessment of this is lacking. Here, we report on the temporal baselines that could be drawn from biodiversity monitoring schemes in Europe and compare those with the rise of important anthropogenic pressures. Most biodiversity monitoring schemes were initiated late in the 20^th century, well after anthropogenic pressures had already reached half of their current magnitude. Setting temporal baselines from biodiversity monitoring data would therefore underestimate the full range of impacts of major anthropogenic pressures. In addition, biases among taxa and organization levels provide a truncated picture of biodiversity over time. These limitations need to be explicitly acknowledged when designing management strategies and policies as they seriously constrain our ability to identify relevant conservation targets aimed at restoring or reversing biodiversity losses. We discuss the need for additional research efforts beyond standard biodiversity monitoring to reconstruct the impacts of major anthropogenic pressures and to identify meaningful temporal baselines for biodiversity.

We Made Your Bed, Why Won't You Lie in It? Food Availability and Disease May Affect Reproductive Output of Reintroduced Frogs

Mitigation to offset the impacts of land development is becoming increasingly common, with reintroductions and created habitat programs used as key actions. However, numerous reviews cite high rates of poor success from these programs, and a need for improved monitoring and scientific testing to evaluate outcomes and improve management actions. We conducted extensive monitoring of a released population of endangered green and golden bell frogs, Litoria aurea, within a created habitat, as well as complementary surveys of a surrounding wild population. We then compared differences between the created habitat and natural ponds where extant frogs either bred or didn’t breed in order to determine factors that contributed to the breeding failure within the created habitat. We evaluated differences of L. aurea abundance, abundance of other fauna, vegetation, water quality, habitat structure, invasive fish, and disease between the three pond types (created habitat, breeding ponds, non-breeding ponds). We discovered that vegetation and invertebrate diversity were low within the created habitat, potentially reducing energy and nutritional resources required for breeding. Also, a greater proportion of frogs in the created habitat were carrying the chytrid fungal pathogen, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, compared to the wild populations. In addition to causing the potentially fatal disease, chytridiomycosis, this pathogen has been shown to reduce reproductive functioning in male L. aurea, and subsequently may have reduced reproductive activities in the created habitat. Conspecific attraction, pond hydrology, and aquatic vegetation may also have had some influence on breeding behaviours, whilst the presence of the invasive mosquitofish, Gambusia holbrooki, and heterospecific tadpoles were unlikely to have deterred L. aurea from breeding within the created habitat. Through the use of scientific testing and monitoring, this study is able to make recommendations for future amphibian breed and release programs, and suggests planting a diversity of plant species to attract invertebrates, creating some permanent ponds, connecting habitat with existing populations, trialling artificial mating calls, and following recommendations to reduce the prevalence of disease within the population.

An Integrated Coral Reef Ecosystem Model to Support Resource Management under a Changing Climate

Millions of people rely on the ecosystem services provided by coral reefs, but sustaining these benefits requires an understanding of how reefs and their biotic communities are affected by local human-induced disturbances and global climate change. Ecosystem-based management that explicitly considers the indirect and cumulative effects of multiple disturbances has been recommended and adopted in policies in many places around the globe. Ecosystem models give insight into complex reef dynamics and their responses to multiple disturbances and are useful tools to support planning and implementation of ecosystem-based management. We adapted the Atlantis Ecosystem Model to incorporate key dynamics for a coral reef ecosystem around Guam in the tropical western Pacific. We used this model to quantify the effects of predicted climate and ocean changes and current levels of current land-based sources of pollution (LBSP) and fishing. We used the following six ecosystem metrics as indicators of ecosystem state, resilience and harvest potential: 1) ratio of calcifying to non-calcifying benthic groups, 2) trophic level of the community, 3) biomass of apex predators, 4) biomass of herbivorous fishes, 5) total biomass of living groups and 6) the end-to-start ratio of exploited fish groups. Simulation tests of the effects of each of the three drivers separately suggest that by mid-century climate change will have the largest overall effect on this suite of ecosystem metrics due to substantial negative effects on coral cover. The effects of fishing were also important, negatively influencing five out of the six metrics. Moreover, LBSP exacerbates this effect for all metrics but not quite as badly as would be expected under additive assumptions, although the magnitude of the effects of LBSP are sensitive to uncertainty associated with primary productivity. Over longer time spans (i.e., 65 year simulations), climate change impacts have a slight positive interaction with other drivers, generally meaning that declines in ecosystem metrics are not as steep as the sum of individual effects of the drivers. These analyses offer one way to quantify impacts and interactions of particular stressors in an ecosystem context and so provide guidance to managers. For example, the model showed that improving water quality, rather than prohibiting fishing, extended the timescales over which corals can maintain high abundance by at least 5–8 years. This result, in turn, provides more scope for corals to adapt or for resilient species to become established and for local and global management efforts to reduce or reverse stressors.

Landscape simplification filters species traits and drives biotic homogenization

Biodiversity loss can affect the viability of ecosystems by decreasing the ability of communities to respond to environmental change and disturbances. Agricultural intensification is a major driver of biodiversity loss and has multiple components operating at different spatial scales: from in-field management intensity to landscape-scale simplification. Here we show that landscape-level effects dominate functional community composition and can even buffer the effects of in-field management intensification on functional homogenization, and that animal communities in real-world managed landscapes show a unified response (across orders and guilds) to both landscape-scale simplification and in-field intensification. Adults and larvae with specialized feeding habits, species with shorter activity periods and relatively small body sizes are selected against in simplified landscapes with intense in-field management. Our results demonstrate that the diversity of land cover types at the landscape scale is critical for maintaining communities, which are functionally diverse, even in landscapes where in-field management intensity is high.

Intertidal zone management in the Western Indian Ocean: assessing current status and future possibilities using expert opinions

This expert opinion study examined the current status of the intertidal zone in the Western Indian Ocean (WIO) and ranked and discussed future management approaches. Information was gathered from scientists, practitioners, and managers active in the WIO region through a questionnaire and a workshop. The experts stated that the productive intertidal environment is highly valuable for reasons such as recreation, erosion protection, and provision of edible invertebrates and fish. Several anthropogenic pressures were identified, including pollution, harbor activities, overexploitation, and climate change. The experts considered the WIO intertidal zone as generally understudied, undermanaged, and with poor or no monitoring. The most important management strategies according to the expert opinions are to develop and involve local people in integrated coastal zone management (ICZM), to increase knowledge on species-environment relationships, and to develop awareness campaigns and education programs. To improve coastal environmental management and conservation, we argue that the intertidal zone should be treated as one organizational management unit within the larger framework of ICZM.

Biogeographical and taxonomic biases in tropical forest fragmentation research

Despite several decades of research on the effects of fragmentation and habitat change on biodiversity, there remain strong biases in the geographical regions and taxonomic species studied. The knowledge gaps resulting from these biases are of particular concern if the forests most threatened with modification are also those for which the effects of such change are most poorly understood. To quantify the nature and magnitude of such biases, we conducted a systematic review of the published literature on forest fragmentation in the tropics for the period 1980-2012. Studies included focused on any type of response of single species, communities, or assemblages of any taxonomic group to tropical forest fragmentation and on fragmentation-related changes to forests. Of the 853 studies we found in the SCOPUS database, 64% were conducted in the Neotropics, 13% in Asia, 10% in the Afrotropics, and 5% in Australasia. Thus, although the Afrotropics is subject to the highest rates of deforestation globally, it was the most disproportionately poorly studied biome. Significant taxonomic biases were identified. Of the taxonomic groups considered, herpetofauna was the least studied in the tropics, particularly in Africa. Research examining patterns of species distribution was by far the most common type (72%), and work focused on ecological processes (28%) was rare in all biomes, but particularly in the Afrotropics and for fauna. We suggest research efforts be directed toward less-studied biogeographic regions, particularly where the threat of forest fragmentation continues to be high. Increased research investment in the Afrotropics will be important to build knowledge of threats and inform responses in a region where almost no efforts to restore its fragmented landscapes have yet begun and forest protection is arguably most tenuous.

Documenting biogeographical patterns of African timber species using herbarium records: a conservation perspective based on native trees from Angola

In many tropical regions the development of informed conservation strategies is hindered by a dearth of biodiversity information. Biological collections can help to overcome this problem, by providing baseline information to guide research and conservation efforts. This study focuses on the timber trees of Angola, combining herbarium (2670 records) and bibliographic data to identify the main timber species, document biogeographic patterns and identify conservation priorities. The study recognized 18 key species, most of which are threatened or near-threatened globally, or lack formal conservation assessments. Biogeographical analysis reveals three groups of species associated with the enclave of Cabinda and northwest Angola, which occur primarily in Guineo-Congolian rainforests, and evergreen forests and woodlands. The fourth group is widespread across the country, and is mostly associated with dry forests. There is little correspondence between the spatial pattern of species groups and the ecoregions adopted by WWF, suggesting that these may not provide an adequate basis for conservation planning for Angolan timber trees. Eight of the species evaluated should be given high conservation priority since they are of global conservation concern, they have very restricted distributions in Angola, their historical collection localities are largely outside protected areas and they may be under increasing logging pressure. High conservation priority was also attributed to another three species that have a large proportion of their global range concentrated in Angola and that occur in dry forests where deforestation rates are high. Our results suggest that timber tree species in Angola may be under increasing risk, thus calling for efforts to promote their conservation and sustainable exploitation. The study also highlights the importance of studying historic herbarium collections in poorly explored regions of the tropics, though new field surveys remain a priority to update historical information.

Anthropogenic natal environmental effects on life histories in a wild bird population

Recent work suggests that the environment experienced in early life can alter life histories in wild populations [1–5], but our understanding of the processes involved remains limited [6, 7]. Since anthropogenic environmental change is currently having a major impact on wild populations [8], this raises the possibility that life histories may be influenced by human activities that alter environmental conditions in early life. Whether this is the case and the processes involved remain unexplored in wild populations. Using 23 years of longitudinal data on the Mauritius kestrel (Falco punctatus), a tropical forest specialist, we found that females born in territories affected by anthropogenic habitat change shifted investment in reproduction to earlier in life at the expense of late life performance. They also had lower survival rates as young adults. This shift in life history strategy appears to be adaptive, because fitness was comparable to that of other females experiencing less anthropogenic modification in their natal environment. Our results suggest that human activities can leave a legacy on wild birds through natal environmental effects. Whether these legacies have a detrimental effect on populations will depend on life history responses and the extent to which these reduce individual fitness.

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Anthropogenic habitat in early life affects life history

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Reproductive scheduling and survival are modified

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Modified life history strategy compensates for poor start in life

Offsets and conservation of the species of the EU habitats and birds directives

Biodiversity offsets are intended to achieve no net loss of biodiversity due to economic and human development. A variety of biodiversity components are addressed by offset policies. It is required that loss of protected species due to development be offset under the EU Habitats and Birds Directives in Europe. We call this type of offset a species-equality offset because the offset pertains to the same species affected by the development project. Whether species equality can be achieved by offset design is unknown. We addressed this gap by reviewing derogation files (i.e., specific files that describe mitigation measures to ensure no net loss under the EU Habitats and Birds Directives) from 85 development projects in France (2009-2010). We collected information on type of effect (reversible vs. irreversible) and characteristics of affected and offset sites (i.e., types of species, total area). We analyzed how the type of effect and the affected-site characteristics influenced the occurrence of offset measures. The proportion of species targeted by offset measures (i.e., offset species) increased with the irreversibility of the effect of development and the conservation status of the species affected by development (i.e., affected species). Not all effects on endangered species (International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List) were offset; on average, 82% of affected species would be offset. Twenty-six percent of species of least concern were offset species. Thirty-five percent of development projects considered all affected species in their offset measures. Species richness was much lower in offset sites than in developed sites even after offset proposals. For developed areas where species richness was relatively high before development, species richness at offset sites was 5-10 times lower. The species-equality principle appears to have been applied only partially in offset policies, as in the EU directives. We suggest the application of this principle through offsets is highly important for the long-term conservation of biodiversity in Europe. Compensaciones y Conservación de las Especies de las Directivas de Hábitats y Aves de la UE.

Shifting baselines and the extinction of the Caribbean monk seal

The recent extinction of the Caribbean monk seal Monachus tropicalis has been considered an example of a human-caused extinction in the marine environment, and this species was considered a driver of the changes that have occurred in the structure of Caribbean coral reef ecosystems since colonial times. I searched archaeological records, historical data, and geographic names (used as a proxy of the presence of seals) and evaluated the use and quality of these data to conclude that since prehistoric times the Caribbean monk seal was always rare and vulnerable to human predation. This finding supports the hypothesis that in AD 1500, the Caribbean monk seal persisted as a small fragmented population in which individuals were confined to small keys, banks, or isolated islands in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea. This hypothesis is contrary to the assumption that the species was widespread and abundant historically. The theory that the main driver of monk seal extinction was harvesting for its oil for use in the sugar cane industry of Jamaica during the 18th century is based primarily on anecdotal information and is overemphasized in the literature. An analysis of reported human encounters with this species indicates monk seal harvest was an occasional activity, rather than an ongoing enterprise. Nevertheless, given the rarity of this species and its restricted distribution, even small levels of hunting or specimen collecting must have contributed to its extinction, which was confirmed in the mid-20th century. Some sources had been overlooked or only partially reviewed, others misinterpreted, and a considerable amount of anecdotal information had been uncritically used. Critical examination of archaeological and historical records is required to infer accurate estimations of the historical abundance of a species. In reconstructing the past to address the shifting baseline syndrome, it is important to avoid selecting evidence to confirm modern prejudices.

Effect of Landscape Structure on Species Diversity

The effects of habitat fragmentation and their implications for biodiversity is a central issue in conservation biology which still lacks an overall comprehension. There is not yet a clear consensus on how to quantify fragmentation even though it is quite common to couple the effects of habitat loss with habitat fragmentation on biodiversity. Here we address the spatial patterns of species distribution in fragmented landscapes, assuming a neutral community model. To build up the fragmented landscapes, we employ the fractional Brownian motion approach, which in turn permits us to tune the amount of habitat loss and degree of clumping of the landscape independently. The coupling between the neutral community model, here simulated by means of the coalescent method, and fractal neutral landscape models enables us to address how the species–area relationship changes as the spatial patterns of a landscape is varied. The species–area relationship is one of the most fundamental laws in ecology, considered as a central tool in conservation biology, and is used to predict species loss following habitat disturbances. Our simulation results indicate that the level of clumping has a major role in shaping the species–area relationship. For instance, more compact landscapes are more sensitive to the effects of habitat loss and speciation rate. Besides, the level of clumping determines the existence and extension of the power-law regime which is expected to hold at intermediate scales. The distributions of species abundance are strongly influenced by the degree of fragmentation. We also show that the first and second commonest species have approximately self-similar spatial distributions across scales, with the fractal dimensions of the support of the first and second commonest species being very robust to changes in the spatial patterns of the landscape.

Biodiversity in the context of ecosystem services: the applied need for systems approaches

Recent evidence strongly suggests that biodiversity loss and ecosystem degradation continue. How might a systems approach to ecology help us better understand and address these issues? Systems approaches play a very limited role in the science that underpins traditional biodiversity conservation, but could provide important insights into mechanisms that affect population growth. This potential is illustrated using data from a critically endangered bird population. Although species-specific insights have practical value, the main applied challenge for a systems approach is to help improve our understanding of the role of biodiversity in the context of ecosystem services (ES) and the associated values and benefits people derive from these services. This has profound implications for the way we conceptualize and address ecological problems. Instead of focusing directly on biodiversity, the important response variables become measures of values and benefits, ES or ecosystem processes. We then need to understand the sensitivity of these variables to biodiversity change relative to other abiotic or anthropogenic factors, which includes exploring the role of variability at different levels of biological organization. These issues are discussed using the recent UK National Ecosystems Assessment as a framework.

Global survey of anthropogenic neighborhood threats to conservation of grass-shrub and forest vegetation

The conservation value of natural vegetation is degraded by proximity to anthropogenic land uses. Previous global assessments focused primarily on the amount of land protected or converted to anthropogenic uses, and on forest vegetation. Comparative assessments of extant vegetation in terms of proximity to anthropogenic land uses are needed to better inform conservation planning. We conducted a novel comparative survey of global forest and grass-shrub vegetation at risk of degradation owing to proximity of anthropogenic land uses. Using a global land cover map, risks were classified according to direct adjacency with anthropogenic land cover (adjacency risk), occurrence in anthropogenic neighborhoods (neighborhood risk), or either (combined risk). The survey results for adjacency risk and combined risk were summarized by ecoregions and biomes. Adjacency risk threatens 22 percent of global grass-shrub and 12 percent of forest vegetation, contributing to combined risk which threatens 31 percent of grass-shrub and 20 percent of forest vegetation. Of 743 ecoregions examined, adjacency risk threatens at least 50 percent of grass-shrub vegetation in 224 ecoregions compared to only 124 ecoregions for forest. The conservation threats posed by proximity to anthropogenic land cover are higher for grass-shrub vegetation than for forest vegetation.

A participatory assessment of ecosystem services and human wellbeing in rural Costa Rica using photo-voice

Human well-being is intricately connected to ecosystem services. A keystone contribution to the ecosystem service literature has been the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, MA, (Ecosystems and human well-being: a framework for assessment, Island Press, Washington, DC; 2003, 2005). Much of the work on ecosystem services to date has focused on the assessment and classification of environmental functions. The need for inclusion of community perspectives in ecosystem assessments has been widely recognized in order to better understand the distribution of impacts and benefits resulting from natural resource use. Communities can offer a direct route to understanding the complex relationships between ecosystems and human well-being and how environmental management affects their livelihoods. Photovoice has been made popular as a tool for participatory needs assessment but it has had limited use in ecosystem assessments to date. The purpose of this paper is twofold: (1) to present the results of a community-level assessment of environmental services in a watershed dominated by pineapple monoculture in Costa Rica; and (2) to evaluate the strengths and the limitations of photovoice as a tool for mapping the relationship between ecosystems and people. I argue that photovoice is an underutilized methodology that has the potential to complement biophysical ecosystem service assessments in the context of impoverished and resource-dependent communities, particularly, since assessing ecosystem services and acting upon that information requires integrating the knowledges of diverse stakeholders, recognizing power imbalances, and grappling with the complexity of social-ecological systems. Processes such as photovoice have the potential to catalyze community self-organization, which is a critical component for empowerment.

Modeling soil conservation, water conservation and their tradeoffs: a case study in Beijing

Natural ecosystems provide society with important goods and services. With the rapid increase in human populations and excessive utilization of natural resources, humans frequently enhance the production of some services at the expense of the others. Although the need for tradeoffs between conservation and development is urgent, the lack of efficient methods to assess such tradeoffs has impeded progress. Three land use strategy scenarios (development scenario, plan trend scenario and conservation scenario) were created to forecast potential changes in ecosystem services from 2007 to 2050 in Beijing, China. GIS-based techniques were used to map spatial and temporal distribution and changes in ecosystem services for each scenario. The provision of ecosystem services differed spatially, with significant changes being associated with different scenarios. Scenario analysis of water yield (as average annual yield) and soil retention (as retention rate per unit area) for the period 2007 to 2050 indicated that the highest values for these parameters were predicted for the forest habitat under all three scenarios. Annual yield/retention of forest, shrub, and grassland ranked the highest in the conservation scenario. Total water yield and soil retention increased in the conservation scenario and declined dramatically in the other two scenarios, especially the development scenario. The conservation scenario was the optimal land use strategy, resulting in the highest soil retention and water yield. Our study suggests that the evaluation and visualization of ecosystem services can effectively assist in understanding the tradeoffs between conservation and development. Results of this study have implications for planning and monitoring future management of natural capital and ecosystem services, which can be integrated into land use decision-making.