Economic costs of achieving current conservation goals in the future as climate changes

Operations research applicability in spatial conservation planning

A large fraction of the current environmental crisis derives from the large rates of human-driven biodiversity loss. Biodiversity conservation questions human practices towards biodiversity and, therefore, largely conflicts with ordinary societal aspirations. Decisions on the location of protected areas, one of the most convincing conservation tools, reflect such a competitive endeavor. Operations Research (OR) brings a set of analytical models and tools capable of resolving the conflicting interests between ecology and economy. Recent technological advances have boosted the size and variety of data available to planners, thus challenging conventional approaches bounded on optimized solutions. New models and methods are needed to use such a massive amount of data in integrative schemes addressing a large variety of concerns. This study provides an overview on the past, present and future challenges that characterize spatial conservation models supported by OR. We discuss the progress of OR models and methods in spatial conservation planning and how those models may be optimized through sophisticated algorithms and computational tools. Moreover, we anticipate possible panoramas of modern spatial conservation studies supported by OR and we explore possible avenues for the design of optimized interdisciplinary collaborative platforms in the era of Big Data, through consortia where distinct players with different motivations and services meet. By enlarging the spatial, temporal, taxonomic and societal horizons of biodiversity conservation, planners navigate around multiple socioecological/environmental equilibria and are able to decide on cost-effective strategies to improve biodiversity persistence under complex environments.

A quantitative analysis on the effects of critical factors limiting the effectiveness of species conservation in future time

The effectiveness of conservation plans depends on environmental, ecological, and socioeconomic factors. Global change makes conservation decisions even more challenging. Among others, the components of most concern in modern-day conservation assessments are as follows: the magnitude of climate and land-use changes; species dispersal abilities; competition with harmful socioeconomic activities for land use; the number of threatened species to consider; and, relatedly, the available budget to act. Here, we provide a unified framework that quantifies the relative effects of those factors on conservation. We conducted an area-scheduling work plan in order to identify sets of areas along time in which the persistence expectancies of species are optimized. The approach was illustrated using data of potential distribution of ten nonvolant mammal species in Iberia Peninsula from current time up to 2080. Analyses were conducted considering possible setups among the factors that are likely to critically impact conservation success: three climate/land-use scenarios; four species' dispersal kernel curves; six land-use layer types; and two planning designs, in which assessments were made independently for each species, or joining all species in a single plan. We identified areas for an array of investments levels capable to circumvent the spatial conflicts with socioeconomic activities. The effect of each factor on the estimated species persistence scores was assessed using linear mixed models. Our results evidence that conservation success is highly reliant on the resources available to abate land-use conflicts. Nonetheless, under the same investment levels, planning design and climate change were the factors that most shaped species persistence scores. The persistence of five species was especially affected by the sole effect of planning design and consequently, larger conservation investments may retard climatic debts. For three species, the negative effects of a changing climate and of multiple-species planning designs added up, making these species especially at risk. Integrated assessments of the factors most likely to limit species persistence are pivotal to achieve effectiveness.

The role of one health in wildlife conservation: a challenge and opportunity

Numerous emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) have arisen from or been identified in wildlife, with health implications for both humans and wildlife. In the practice of wildlife conservation, to date most attention has focused on the threat EIDs pose to biodiversity and wildlife population viability. In the popular media and public eye, however, wildlife is often only portrayed as the cause of EIDs and resultant human health impacts. There is little coverage on the roles of human-induced habitat destruction or wildlife population stress in EID spread, nor the negative impacts of disease on wildlife. Here, we focus on a little-studied and seldom discussed concern: how real and perceived risks of wildlife-associated diseases for human and companion animal health might erode public support for wildlife conservation. We believe that wildlife-associated EIDs and public perceptions of these risks are among the most important threats to wildlife conservation. In light of this concern, we explore the challenges and opportunities for addressing this situation in a One Health context that emphasizes the interdisciplinary collaboration and the inextricable nature of human and animal health and disease.

Projecting boreal bird responses to climate change: the signal exceeds the noise

For climate change projections to be useful, the magnitude of change must be understood relative to the magnitude of uncertainty in model predictions. We quantified the signal-to-noise ratio in projected distributional responses of boreal birds to climate change, and compared sources of uncertainty. Boosted regression tree models of abundance were generated for 80 boreal-breeding bird species using a comprehensive data set of standardized avian point counts (349,629 surveys at 122,202 unique locations) and 4-km climate, land use, and topographic data. For projected changes in abundance, we calculated signal-to-noise ratios and examined variance components related to choice of global climate model (GCM) and two sources of species distribution model (SDM) uncertainty: sampling error and variable selection. We also evaluated spatial, temporal, and interspecific variation in these sources of uncertainty. The mean signal-to-noise ratio across species increased over time to 2.87 by the end of the 21st century, with the signal greater than the noise for 88% of species. Across species, climate change represented the largest component (0.44) of variance in projected abundance change. Among sources of uncertainty evaluated, choice of GCM (mean variance component = 0.17) was most important for 66% of species, sampling error (mean= 0.12) for 29% of species, and variable selection (mean =0.05) for 5% of species. Increasing the number of GCMs from four to 19 had minor effects on these results. The range of projected changes and uncertainty characteristics across species differed markedly, reinforcing the individuality of species' responses to climate change and the challenges of one-size-fits-all approaches to climate change adaptation. We discuss the usefulness of different conservation approaches depending on the strength of the climate change signal relative to the noise, as well as the dominant source of prediction uncertainty.

Fire management, managed relocation, and land conservation options for long-lived obligate seeding plants under global changes in climate, urbanization, and fire regime

Most species face multiple anthropogenic disruptions. Few studies have quantified the cumulative influence of multiple threats on species of conservation concern, and far fewer have quantified the potential relative value of multiple conservation interventions in light of these threats. We linked spatial distribution and population viability models to explore conservation interventions under projected climate change, urbanization, and changes in fire regime on a long-lived obligate seeding plant species sensitive to high fire frequencies, a dominant plant functional type in many fire-prone ecosystems, including the biodiversity hotspots of Mediterranean-type ecosystems. First, we investigated the relative risk of population decline for plant populations in landscapes with and without land protection under an existing habitat conservation plan. Second, we modeled the effectiveness of relocating both seedlings and seeds from a large patch with predicted declines in habitat area to 2 unoccupied recipient patches with increasing habitat area under 2 projected climate change scenarios. Finally, we modeled 8 fire return intervals (FRIs) approximating the outcomes of different management strategies that effectively control fire frequency. Invariably, long-lived obligate seeding populations remained viable only when FRIs were maintained at or above a minimum level. Land conservation and seedling relocation efforts lessened the impact of climate change and land-use change on obligate seeding populations to differing degrees depending on the climate change scenario, but neither of these efforts was as generally effective as frequent translocation of seeds. While none of the modeled strategies fully compensated for the effects of land-use and climate change, an integrative approach managing multiple threats may diminish population declines for species in complex landscapes. Conservation plans designed to mitigate the impacts of a single threat are likely to fail if additional threats are ignored.

Climate change and the cost of conserving species in Madagascar

We examined the cost of conserving species as climate changes. We used a Maxent species distribution model to predict the ranges from 2000 to 2080 of 74 plant species endemic to the forests of Madagascar under 3 climate scenarios. We set a conservation target of achieving 10,000 ha of forest cover for each species and calculated the cost of achieving this target under each scenario. We interviewed managers of projects to restore native forests and conducted a literature review to obtain the net present cost per hectare of management actions to maintain or establish forest cover. For each species, we added hectares of land from lowest to highest cost per additional year of forest cover until the conservation target was achieved throughout the time period. Climate change was predicted to reduce the size of species' ranges, the overlap between species' ranges and existing or planned protected areas, and the overlap between species' ranges and existing forest. As a result, climate change increased the cost of achieving the conservation target by necessitating successively more costly management actions: additional management within existing protected areas (US$0-60/ha); avoidance of forest degradation (i.e., loss of biomass) in community-managed areas ($160-576/ha); avoidance of deforestation in unprotected areas ($252-1069/ha); and establishment of forest on nonforested land within protected areas ($802-2710/ha), in community-managed areas ($962-3226/ha), and in unprotected areas ($1054-3719/ha). Our results suggest that although forest restoration may be required for the conservation of some species as climate changes, it is more cost-effective to maintain existing forest wherever possible.