Changing forest disturbance regimes and risk perceptions in Homer, Alaska

Do actions reduce perceived risk? A longitudinal analysis of the relationship between risk perception and actions in response to forest disturbance in Colorado

As residents living in hazard-prone areas face on-going environmental threats, the actions they take to mitigate such risks are likely motivated by various factors. Whereas risk perception has been considered a key determinant of related behavioral responses, little is known about how risk mitigation actions influence subsequent perceived risk. In other words, do actions to prevent or mitigate risk reduce risk perception? This longitudinal study considers the dynamic relationships between risk perception and risk-mitigating behavior in the context of forest disturbance in north-central Colorado. Based on panel survey data collected in 2007 and 2018, the results provide a first look at changes in perceived forest risks as they relate to individual and community actions in response to an extensive mountain pine beetle outbreak. Analysis revealed that the perception of direct forest risks (forest fire and falling trees) increased, whereas indirect forest risk perception (concern on broader threats to local community) decreased across the two study phases. Higher individual or community activeness (level of actions) was associated with subsequent reductions in perceived forest fire risk, smaller increases in direct risk perception, and larger decreases in indirect risk perception. These findings contribute insights into the complex risk reappraisal process in forest hazard contexts, with direct implications for risk communication and management strategies.

Exploring the 'Issue-Attention Cycle': Does Length of Time Since Wildfire Predict Social Acceptability of Prescribed Burning?

Social acceptability of environmental management actions, such as prescribed burning used to reduce wildfire risk, is critical to achieving positive outcomes. However, environmental managers often need to implement strategies over a long time period, and sustaining long-term community support can be challenging. Public attention to environmental issues is argued to vary over time, with acceptability of management interventions theorized to decrease with time since experiencing an environmental problem. However, it is unknown whether a person needs to personally experience the problem to maintain support, or if hearing about it in the media is sufficient. In this paper we explore whether acceptability of prescribed burning used to reduce wildfire risk declines with length of time since personally experiencing a wildfire. In a sample of 4390 Australians, acceptability of prescribed burning was not predicted by length of time since personally experiencing a wildfire, or perceptions of wildfire risk. Significant predictors included perceptions of local fuel loads, and of positive and negative impacts of prescribed burning, suggesting addressing these issues may be more effective in maintaining long-term support for wildfire management policies than investing in increasing attention to wildfire risk. This suggests environmental managers can design communication strategies to maintain support for environmental actions even in the absence of an individual personally experiencing the problem the action is designed to address.

Using Q Methodology to Explore Risk Perception and Public Concern about Tree Pests and Diseases: The Case of Ash Dieback

This paper seeks to address the need for a more nuanced understanding of public perceptions of risk-related events by investigating the nature of and drivers for a ‘concerned public’ to an environmental issue, using the case study of the ash dieback outbreak in the UK. Q Methodology, an approach that combines both quantitative and qualitative data through factor analysis to identify different ways of thinking about a particular issue, was used to investigate the subjective response of local publics to ash dieback in East Kent, England, one of the early outbreak locations. Five narratives are identified, distinguishing perceptions of risk and management preferences: (1) call for better biosecurity; (2) resilient nature and techno-scientific solutions; (3) fatalistic; (4) disinterested; and (5) pro-active citizens. Four narratives demonstrated concern about the impacts of ash dieback on woodland ecosystems, but beliefs about whether the disease arrived in the UK on infected imported nursery stock or on windblown spores varied. The results of this study contribute to improving understanding of the drivers of differing public perceptions of tree health risks, an important consideration for designing socially acceptable strategies for managing tree pests and diseases, and other environmental risks, in the future.

Education and knowledge determine preference for bark beetle control measures in El Salvador

Extensive outbreaks of bark beetles have affected not only large parts of coniferous forests in the Northern Hemisphere, but also - largely absent from global attention - native pine forests of Central America. As such outbreaks frequently spark management debates among residents, land managers, forest owners and the public, the social acceptance of bark beetle control measures has become crucial for modern land management. However, the sociological and psychological determinants of the preference for specific bark beetle control measures outside protected areas remain unclear. To determine the acceptability of bark beetle control measures in El Salvador, we assessed how demographic variables, attitude towards the bark beetle, education, and self-reported knowledge affected the preference for different bark beetle control measures in a survey of government employees and local forest owners using a quantitative questionnaire survey. Cumulative link mixed models revealed that the general preference for control measures increased with increasing self-reported knowledge about the bark beetle but decreased with increasing level of respondent education and an increasing positive attitude towards the bark beetle. Respondents generally preferred beetle control measures on small areas than on large areas. Preferences for control measures did not differ between government employees and forest owners, with controlled burning and chemical control significantly less accepted than stand thinning or salvage logging. We discuss the most preferred control measures considering recent scientific evidence of their efficacy and conclude that the current bark beetle outbreak should be controlled through logging of pines weakened by fire in the short-term and by stand thinning in the medium-term to prevent further outbreaks.

Does Wildfire Open a Policy Window? Local Government and Community Adaptation After Fire in the United States

Becoming a fire adapted community that can coexist with wildfire is envisioned as a continuous, iterative process of adaptation, but it is unclear how communities may pursue adaptation. Experience with wildfire and other natural hazards suggests that disasters may open a "window of opportunity" leading to local government policy changes. We examined how destructive wildfire affected progress toward becoming fire adapted in eight locations in the United States. We found that community-level adaptation following destructive fires is most common where destructive wildfire is novel and there is already government capacity and investment in wildfire regulation and land use planning. External funding, staff capacity, and the presence of issue champions combined to bring about change after wildfire. Locations with long histories of destructive wildfire, extensive previous investment in formal wildfire regulation and mitigation, or little government and community capacity to manage wildfire saw fewer changes. Across diverse settings, communities consistently used the most common tools and actions for wildfire mitigation and planning. Nearly all sites reported changes in wildfire suppression, emergency response, and hazard planning documents. Expansion in voluntary education and outreach programs to increase defensible space was also common, occurring in half of our sites, but land use planning and regulations remained largely unchanged. Adaptation at the community and local governmental level therefore may not axiomatically follow from each wildfire incident, nor easily incorporate formal approaches to minimizing land use and development in hazardous environments, but in many sites wildfire was a focusing event that inspired reflection and adaptation.

Is Seeing Believing? Perceptions of Wildfire Risk Over Time

Ongoing challenges to understanding how hazard exposure and disaster experiences influence perceived risk lead us to ask: Is seeing believing? We approach risk perception by attending to two components of overall risk perception: perceived probability of an event occurring and perceived consequences if an event occurs. Using a two-period longitudinal data set collected from a survey of homeowners living in a fire-prone area of Colorado, we find that study participants' initial high levels of perceived probability and consequences of a wildfire did not change substantially after extreme wildfire events in the intervening years. More specifically, perceived probability of a wildfire changed very little, whereas the perceived consequences of a wildfire went up a bit. In addition, models of risk perceptions show that the two components of overall risk perception are correlated with somewhat different factors, and experience is not found to be one of the strongest correlates with perceived risk. These results reflect the importance of distinguishing the components of overall risk and modeling them separately to facilitate additional insights into the complexities of risk perceptions, factors related to perceived risk, and change in risk perceptions over time.

Understanding Gaps Between the Risk Perceptions of Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI) Residents and Wildfire Professionals

Research across a variety of risk domains finds that the risk perceptions of professionals and the public differ. Such risk perception gaps occur if professionals and the public understand individual risk factors differently or if they aggregate risk factors into overall risk differently. The nature of such divergences, whether based on objective inaccuracies or on differing perspectives, is important to understand. However, evidence of risk perception gaps typically pertains to general, overall risk levels; evidence of and details about mismatches between the specific level of risk faced by individuals and their perceptions of that risk is less available. We examine these issues with a paired data set of professional and resident assessments of parcel-level wildfire risk for private property in a wildland-urban interface community located in western Colorado, United States. We find evidence of a gap between the parcel-level risk assessments of a wildfire professional and numerous measures of residents' risk assessments. Overall risk ratings diverge for the majority of properties, as do judgments about many specific property attributes and about the relative contribution of these attributes to a property's overall level of risk. However, overall risk gaps are not well explained by many factors commonly found to relate to risk perceptions. Understanding the nature of these risk perception gaps can facilitate improved communication by wildfire professionals about how risks can be mitigated on private lands. These results also speak to the general nature of individual-level risk perception.

Perceptions of wildfire and landscape change in the Kenai Peninsula, Alaska

Despite a broad literature addressing the human dimensions of wildfire, current approaches often compartmentalize results according to disciplinary boundaries. Further, relatively few studies have focused on the public's evolving perceptions of wildfire as communities change over time. This paper responds to these gaps by exploring perceptions of landscape dynamics and wildfire between 2003 and 2007 using a typological framework of intersecting ecological, social, and cultural processes. Designed as a restudy, and using key informant interviews, this research allowed us to observe risk perception as they are related to community challenges and opportunities in the Kenai Peninsula, Alaska. Risk perceptions were examined as an integral part of community and landscape change. Wildfire was a concern among informants in 2003 and remained a concern in 2007, although informants were less likely to discuss it as a major threat compared to the original study. Informants in the western part of the peninsula tended to express more concern about wildfire than their eastern counterparts largely due to their experiences with recent fires. Other important factors residents considered included changing forest fuels, the expanding wildland urban interface, and contrasting values of new residents. Underscoring the localized nature of risk perceptions, informants had difficulty describing the probability of a wildfire event in a geographical context broader than the community scale. This paper demonstrates how a holistic approach can help wildfire and natural resource professionals, community members, and other stakeholders understand the social and physical complexities influencing collective actions or inactions to address the threat of wildfire.

Linking local perceptions to the biophysical and amenity contexts of forest disturbance in Colorado

Disturbances by insects have considerable effect on the heterogeneity of forested landscapes in North America. Responding to calls for bringing human dimensions of landscape disturbance and heterogeneity into ecological assessments and management strategies, this paper explores linkages between biophysical, socioeconomic, and perceptual aspects of a mountain pine beetle (MPB) (Dendroctonus ponderosae) outbreak in north central Colorado. Findings are presented from surveys conducted with residents of nine Colorado communities and variations in local perceptions of MPB risks and forest management attitudes are compared to indices of tree mortality and amenity characteristics. Findings suggest respondents from lower amenity communities with more recent emphasis on resource extraction and higher tree mortality had significantly higher risk perceptions of some MPB impacts, lower trust in federal forest management, and higher faith in forest industry and specific industry options than those from higher amenity communities with less tree mortality. While not implying these contextual influences fully explain such perceptual dimensions, this paper explores possible implications of heterogeneity across human landscapes for improving the saliency and efficiency of regional forest management and planning.

Human dimensions of forest disturbance by insects: an international synthesis

Ecological disturbances of forests by insects have a complex array of associated human dimensions presenting complications for natural resource decision making and relationships between stakeholders and managers. This article discusses the human context of forest disturbances by insects by reviewing four cases of bark beetle forest disturbance from British Columbia in Canada, Bavarian Forest National Park in Germany, the Kenai Peninsula in Alaska, and the north central region of Colorado. Findings and lessons learned from these studies are outlined along with their implications for managing forest disturbances by insects in general. Conclusions focus on the need to assess the broad array of impacts and risks perceived by local residents and the capacity for local action and involvement in managing forest disturbances. Communication and interaction between resource managers and local stakeholders can facilitate the identification of management priorities and potentially reduce some of the risks associated with forest disturbances by insects.