Failure to validate a predictive model for refusal of care to emergency-department patients

Factors associated with hospital revisitation within 7 days among patients discharged at triage: a case-control study

BACKGROUND AND IMPORTANCE

Existing data are limited for determining the medical conditions best suited for an emergency department (ED) redirection strategy in a heterogeneous, nonurgent patient population.

OBJECTIVE

The aim was to establish factors associated with hospital revisits within 7 days among patients discharged or redirected by a triage team.

DESIGN, SETTINGS, AND PARTICIPANTS

An observational single-center case-control study was conducted at the Tampere University Hospital ED for the full calendar year of 2019. The cases comprised unplanned hospital revisits within 7 days of being discharged or redirected by triage, while the controls were discharged or redirected but did not revisit.

OUTCOME MEASURES AND ANALYSIS

The primary outcome was an unplanned hospital revisit within 7 days. A subgroup analysis was conducted for revisits leading to hospitalization. Basic demographics, comorbidities before triage, and triage visit characteristics were considered as predictive factors for the revisit. A backward stepwise conditional logistic regression analysis was performed.

MAIN RESULTS

During the calendar year of 2019, there were a total of 92 406 ED visits. Of these, 7216 (7.8%) visits were discharged or redirected by triage, and 6.5% ( n  = 467) of all these patients revisited. Of the revisiting patients, 25% ( n  = 117) were hospitalized. In multivariable analysis, higher age was associated with both revisitation [odds ratio (OR): 1.01, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.00-1.02] and hospitalization (OR: 1.02, 95% CI: 1.00-1.04). Furthermore, using other visits as a reference, abdominal pain was associated with revisitation and hospitalization (OR: 3.70, 95% CI: 2.24-6.11 and OR: 5.28, 95% CI: 2.08-13.4, respectively).

CONCLUSION

Higher age and abdominal pain were associated with hospital revisitation and hospitalization within 7 days among patients directly discharged or redirected by the triage team. Regardless of the triage system in use, there might be patient groups that should be evaluated more cautiously if a triage-based discharge or redirection strategy is to be considered.

Appropriateness of emergency care use: a retrospective observational study based on professional versus patients' perspectives in Taiwan

OBJECTIVE

The objectives of this study are to refine the measurement of appropriate emergency department (ED) use and to provide a natural observation of appropriate ED use rates based on professional versus patient perspectives.

SETTING

Taiwan has a population of 23 million, with one single-payer universal health insurance scheme. Taiwan has no limitations on ED use, and a low barrier to ED use may be a surrogate for natural observation of users' perspectives in ED use.

PARTICIPANTS

In 7 years, there were 1 835 860 ED visits from one million random samples of the National Health Insurance Database.

MEASURES

Appropriate ED use was determined according to professional standards, measured by the modified Billings New York University Emergency Department (NYU-ED) algorithm, and further analysed after the addition of prudent patient standards, measured by explicit process-based and outcome-based criteria.

STATISTICAL ANALYSES

The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to reflect the performance of appropriate ED use measures, and sensitivity analyses were conducted using different thresholds to determine the appropriateness of ED use. The generalised estimating equation model was used to measure the associations between appropriate ED use based on process and outcome criteria and covariates including sex, age, occupation, health status, place of residence, medical resources area, date and income level.

RESULTS

Appropriate ED use based on professional criteria was 33.5%, which increased to 63.1% when patient criteria were added. The AUC, which combines both professional and patient criteria, was high (0.85).

CONCLUSIONS

The appropriate ED use rate nearly doubled when patient criteria were added to professional criteria. Explicit process-based and outcome-based criteria may be used as a supplementary measure to the implicit modified Billings NYU-ED algorithm when determining appropriate ED use.

The impact of general practitioners working in or alongside emergency departments: a rapid realist review

OBJECTIVES

Worldwide, emergency healthcare systems are under intense pressure from ever-increasing demand and evidence is urgently needed to understand how this can be safely managed. An estimated 10%-43% of emergency department patients could be treated by primary care services. In England, this has led to a policy proposal and £100 million of funding (US$130 million), for emergency departments to stream appropriate patients to a co-located primary care facility so they are 'free to care for the sickest patients'. However, the research evidence to support this initiative is weak.

DESIGN

Rapid realist literature review.

SETTING

Emergency departments.

INCLUSION CRITERIA

Articles describing general practitioners working in or alongside emergency departments.

AIM

To develop context-specific theories that explain how and why general practitioners working in or alongside emergency departments affect: patient flow; patient experience; patient safety and the wider healthcare system.

RESULTS

Ninety-six articles contributed data to theory development sourced from earlier systematic reviews, updated database searches (Medline, Embase, CINAHL, Cochrane DSR & CRCT, DARE, HTA Database, BSC, PsycINFO and SCOPUS) and citation tracking. We developed theories to explain: how staff interpret the streaming system; different roles general practitioners adopt in the emergency department setting (traditional, extended, gatekeeper or emergency clinician) and how these factors influence patient (experience and safety) and organisational (demand and cost-effectiveness) outcomes.

CONCLUSIONS

Multiple factors influence the effectiveness of emergency department streaming to general practitioners; caution is needed in embedding the policy until further research and evaluation are available. Service models that encourage the traditional general practitioner approach may have shorter process times for non-urgent patients; however, there is little evidence that this frees up emergency department staff to care for the sickest patients. Distinct primary care services offering increased patient choice may result in provider-induced demand. Economic evaluation and safety requires further research.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42017069741.

Comparisons between Full-time and Part-time Pediatric Emergency Physicians in Pediatric Emergency Department

BACKGROUND

Pediatric emergency medicine is a young field that has established itself in recent decades. Many unanswered questions remain regarding how to deliver better pediatric emergency care. The implementation of full-time pediatric emergency physicians is a quality improvement strategy for child care in Taiwan. The aim of this study is to evaluate the quality of care under different physician coverage models in the pediatric emergency department (ED).

METHODS

The medical records of 132,398 patients visiting the pediatric ED of a tertiary care university hospital during January 2004 to December 2006 were retrospectively reviewed. Full-time pediatric emergency physicians are the group specializing in the pediatric emergency medicine, and they only work in the pediatric ED. Part-time pediatricians specializing in other subspecialties also can work an extra shift in the pediatric ED, with the majority working in their inpatient and outpatient services. We compared quality performance indicators, including: mortality rate, the 72-hour return visit rate, length of stay, admission rate, and the rate of being kept for observation between full-time and part-time pediatric emergency physicians.

RESULTS

An average of 3678 ± 125 [mean ± standard error (SE)] visits per month (with a range of 2487-6646) were observed. The trends in quality of care, observed monthly, indicated that the 72-hour return rate was 2-6% and length of stay in the ED decreased from 11.5 hours to 3.2 hours over the study period. The annual mortality rate within 48 hours of admission to the ED increased from 0.04% to 0.05% and then decreased to 0.02%, and the overall mortality rate dropped from 0.13% to 0.07%. Multivariate analyses indicated that there was no change in the 72-hour return visit rate for full-time pediatric emergency physicians; they were more likely to admit and keep patients for observation [odds ratio = 1.43 and odds ratio = 1.71, respectively], and these results were similar to those of senior physicians.

CONCLUSION

Full-time pediatric emergency physicians in the pediatric ED decreased the mortality rate and length of stay in the ED, but had no change in the 72-hour return visit rate. This pilot study shows that the quality of care in pediatric ED after the implementation of full-time pediatric emergency physicians needs further evaluation.

Predictive factors for hospitalization of nonurgent patients in the emergency department

Nonurgent emergency department (ED) patients are a controversial issue in the era of ED overcrowding. However, a substantial number of post-ED hospitalizations were found, which prompted for investigation and strategy management. The objective of this study is to identify risk factors for predicting the subsequent hospitalization of nonurgent emergency patients. This was a retrospective study of a database of adult nontrauma ED visits in a medical center for a period of 12 months from January 2013 to December 2013. Patient triages as either Taiwan Triage and Acuity Scale (TTAS) level 4 or 5 were considered "nonurgent." Basic demographic data, primary and secondary diagnoses, clinical parameters including blood pressure, heart rate, body temperature, and chief complaint category in TTAS were analyzed to determine if correlation exists between potential predictors and hospitalization in nonurgent patients.A total of 16,499 nonurgent patients were included for study. The overall hospitalization rate was 12.47 % (2058/16,499). In the multiple logistic regression model, patients with characteristics of males (odds ratio, OR = 1.37), age more than 65 years old (OR = 1.56), arrival by ambulance (OR = 2.40), heart rate more than 100/min (OR = 1.47), fever (OR = 2.73), and presented with skin swelling/redness (OR = 4.64) were predictors for hospitalization. The area under receiver-operator calibration curve (AUROC) for the prediction model was 0.70. Nonurgent patients might still be admitted for further care especially in male, the elderly, with more secondary diagnoses, abnormal vital signs, and presented with dermatologic complaints. Using the TTAS acuity level to identify patients for diversion away from the ED is unsafe and will lead to inappropriate refusal of care for many patients requiring hospital treatment.

Comparison of presenting complaint vs discharge diagnosis for identifying " nonemergency" emergency department visits

IMPORTANCE

Reduction in emergency department (ED) use is frequently viewed as a potential source for cost savings. One consideration has been to deny payment if the patient's diagnosis upon ED discharge appears to reflect a "nonemergency" condition. This approach does not incorporate other clinical factors such as chief complaint that may inform necessity for ED care.

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether ED presenting complaint and ED discharge diagnosis correspond sufficiently to support use of discharge diagnosis as the basis for policies discouraging ED use.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

The New York University emergency department algorithm has been commonly used to identify nonemergency ED visits. We applied the algorithm to publicly available ED visit data from the 2009 National Hospital Ambulatory Medical Care Survey (NHAMCS) for the purpose of identifying all "primary care-treatable" visits. The 2009 NHAMCS data set contains 34,942 records, each representing a unique ED visit. For each visit with a discharge diagnosis classified as primary care treatable, we identified the chief complaint. To determine whether these chief complaints correspond to nonemergency ED visits, we then examined all ED visits with this same group of chief complaints to ascertain the ED course, final disposition, and discharge diagnoses.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Patient demographics, clinical characteristics, and disposition associated with chief complaints related to nonemergency ED visits.

RESULTS

Although only 6.3% (95% CI, 5.8%-6.7%) of visits were determined to have primary care-treatable diagnoses based on discharge diagnosis and our modification of the algorithm, the chief complaints reported for these ED visits with primary care-treatable ED discharge diagnoses were the same chief complaints reported for 88.7% (95% CI, 88.1%-89.4%) of all ED visits. Of these visits, 11.1% (95% CI, 9.3%-13.0%) were identified at ED triage as needing immediate or emergency care; 12.5% (95% CI, 11.8%-14.3%) required hospital admission; and 3.4% (95% CI, 2.5%-4.3%) of admitted patients went directly from the ED to the operating room.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

Among ED visits with the same presenting complaint as those ultimately given a primary care-treatable diagnosis based on ED discharge diagnosis, a substantial proportion required immediate emergency care or hospital admission. The limited concordance between presenting complaints and ED discharge diagnoses suggests that these discharge diagnoses are unable to accurately identify nonemergency ED visits.

A novel approach to identifying targets for cost reduction in the emergency department

This article introduces a novel framework that classifies emergency department (ED) visits according to broad categories of severity, identifying those categories of visits that present the most potential for reducing costs associated with the ED. Although cost savings directly attributable to the ED are apt to be an important emphasis of organizations operating under reformed payment systems, our framework suggests that a focus on diverting low-acuity visits away from the ED would result in far less savings compared with strategies aimed at reducing admissions and to a lesser extent improving the efficiency of ED care for intermediate or complex conditions. We conclude that targeting these categories, rather than minor injuries/illnesses, should be the primary focus of cost-reduction strategies from the ED. Given this understanding, we then discuss the implications of these findings on the financing of an emergency care system that needs to account for the required fixed costs of "stand-by capacity" of the ED and explore ways in which the ED can be better integrated into a patient-centered health care system.

Accuracy of triage nurses in predicting patient disposition

OBJECTIVE

Increasing demand to reduce patient waiting times and improve patient flow has led to the introduction of a number of strategies such as fast track and patient streaming. The triage nurse is primarily responsible for identifying suitable patients, based on prediction of likely admission or discharge. The aim of the present study was to explore the accuracy with which triage nurses predict patient disposition.

METHODS

Over two separate 1-week periods, triage nurses at two urban tertiary hospitals electronically recorded in real time whether they thought each patient would be admitted or discharged. The patient's ultimate disposition (admission or discharge), age, sex, diagnostic group, triage category and time of arrival were also recorded.

RESULTS

In total, 1342 patients were included in the study, of which 36.0% were subsequently admitted. Overall, the triage nurse correctly predicted the disposition in 75.7% of patients (95% CI: 73.2-78.0). Nurses were more accurate at predicting discharge than admission (83.3% vs 65.1%, P = 0.04). Triage nurses were most accurate at predicting admission in patients with higher triage categories and most accurate at predicting discharge in patients with injuries and febrile illnesses (89.6%, 95% CI: 85.6-92.6). Predicted discharge was least accurate for patients with cardiovascular disease, with 41.1% (95% CI: 26.4-57.8) of predicted discharges in this category subsequently requiring admission.

CONCLUSION

Triage nurses can accurately predict likely discharge in specific subgroups of ED patients. This supports the role of triage nurses in appropriately identifying patients suitable for 'fast track' or streaming.

The Effect of Low-Complexity Patients on Emergency Department Waiting Times

STUDY OBJECTIVE

The extent to which patients presenting to emergency departments (EDs) with minor conditions contribute to delays and crowding is controversial. To test this question, we study the effect of low-complexity ED patients on the waiting times of other patients.

METHODS

We obtained administrative records on all ED visits to Ontario hospitals from April 2002 to March 2003. For each ED, we determined the association between the number of new low-complexity patients (defined as ambulatory arrival, low-acuity triage level, and discharged) presenting in each 8-hour interval and the mean ED length of stay and time to first physician contact for medium- and high-complexity patients. Covariates were the number of new high- and medium-complexity patients, mean patient age, sex distribution, hospital teaching status, work shift, weekday/weekend, and total patient-hours. Autoregression modeling was used given correlation in the data.

RESULTS

One thousand ninety-five consecutive 8-hour intervals at 110 EDs were analyzed; 4.1 million patient visits occurred, 50.8% of patients were women, and mean age was 38.4 years. Low-, medium-, and high-complexity patients represented 50.9%, 37.1%, and 12% of all patients, respectively. Mean (median) ED length of stay was 6.3 (4.7), 3.9 (2.8), and 2.2 (1.6) hours for high-, medium-, and low-complexity patients, respectively, and mean (median) time to first physician contact was 1.1 (0.7), 1.3 (0.9), and 1.1 (0.8) hours. In adjusted analyses, every 10 low-complexity patients arriving per 8 hours was associated with a 5.4-minute (95% confidence interval [CI] 4.2 to 6.0 minutes) increase in mean length of stay and a 2.1-minute (95% CI 1.8 to 2.4 minutes) increase in mean time to first physician contact for medium- and high-complexity patients. Results were similar regardless of ED volume and teaching status.

CONCLUSION

Low-complexity ED patients are associated with a negligible increase in ED length of stay and time to first physician contact for other ED patients. Reducing the number of low-complexity ED patients is unlikely to reduce waiting times for other patients or lessen crowding.

Evaluation of a Fast Track Unit

BACKGROUND

Emergency departments (EDs) are struggling with overcrowding. The Institute for Healthcare Improvement recently concluded that reducing delays is critical to improving all aspects of emergency care. To reduce cycle times and improve patient flow, we developed a separate stream of care focused on low-acuity patients in our academic ED.

METHODS

Strict triage criteria were developed, and patients were seen by a physician's assistant in a dedicated section of the ED. Two anonymous surveys (patient and staff) and a time cycle analysis were performed before and after the intervention.

RESULTS

Eighty-seven preintervention patient surveys (response rate = 60%) and 91 postintervention surveys (response rate = 79%) were collected. Demographic data were comparable. All domains of patient satisfaction were significantly improved in the postintervention group and were correlated with the length of stay that decreased from 127 to 53 minutes (P < .001).

CONCLUSIONS

This study supports an emphasis on improving turnaround time as a primary driver of satisfaction, and demonstrates that a simple intervention characterized by focusing existing resources on the needs of a specific population can significantly improve health care delivery. Thoughtful alignment of resources with the needs of specific patient populations should similarly streamline care in other clinical settings.

Providing telephone advice from the emergency department

Emergency departments frequently receive telephone calls from the general public. Callers sometimes request detailed instruction or medical advice. The growth of managed care produced expanded use of telephone-based medical information as a part of managed care ED demand management. Although the suboptimal accuracy of on-site triage is well documented in the medical literature, the accuracy of telephone-based medical advice is poorly studied. Case law indicates that the expectations for the medical outcomes of those receiving telephone-based medical advice will not be significantly less than those for on-site ED triage. This American College of Emergency Physicians Policy Resource and Education Paper (PREP) explores these issues.

Access to care: a review of the emergency medicine literature

The authors review the evolution of the emergency medicine literature regarding emergency department (ED) use and access to care over the past 20 years. They discuss the impact of cost containment and the emergence of managed care on prevailing views of ED utilization. In the 1980s, the characterization of "nonurgent ED visits" as "inappropriate" and high ED charges led to the targeting of non-emergency ED care as a potential source of savings. During the 1990s the literature reveals multiple attempts to identify "inappropriate" ED visits and to develop strategies to triage these visits away from the ED. By the late 1990s, demonstration of the risks of denying emergency care and more sophisticated analyses of actual costs led to reconsideration of initiatives to limit access to ED care and renewed focus on the critical role of the ED as a safety net provider. In recent years, "de facto" denials of emergency care due to long ED waiting times and other adverse consequences of ED crowding have begun to dominate the emergency medicine health services literature.

Predicting patient visits to an urgent care clinic using calendar variables

OBJECTIVE

To develop a prediction equation for the number of patients seeking urgent care.

METHODS

In the first phase, daily patient volume from February 1998 to January 1999 was matched with calendar and weather variables, and stepwise linear regression analysis was performed. This model was used to match staffing to patient volume. The effects were measured through patient complaint and "left without being seen" rates. The second phase was undertaken to develop a model to account for the continual yearly increase in patient volume. For this phase daily patient volume from February 1998 to April 2000 was used; the patient volume from May 2000 to July 2000 was used as a validation set.

RESULTS

First-phase prediction equation was: daily patient volume = 66.2 + 11.1 January + 4.56 winter + 47.2 Monday + 37.3 Tuesday + 35.6 Wednesday + 28.2 Thursday + 24.2 Friday + 7.96 Saturday + 10.1 day after a holiday. This equation accounted for 75.2% of daily patient volume (p<0.01). Inclusion of significant weather variables only minimally improved the predictive ability (r(2) = 0.786). The second-phase final model was: daily patient volume = 57.2 + 0.035 Newdate + 52.0 Monday + 44. 2 Tuesday + 39.2 Wednesday + 30.2 Thursday + 26.5 Friday + 10.9 Saturday + 12.2 February + 3.9 March, which accounted for 72.7% of the daily variation (p<0.01). The model predicted the patient volume in the validation set within +/-11%. When the first-phase model was used to predict patient volume and thus staffing, the percentage of patients who left without being seen decreased by 18. 5% and the number of patient complaints dropped by 30%.

CONCLUSIONS

Use of a prediction equation allowed for improved accuracy in staffing patterns with associated improvement in measures of patient satisfaction.

Can emergency department triage nurses predict patients' dispositions?

Early recognition of inpatient bed requirements might be helpful in expediting the admission process through the emergency department (ED). With this in mind, we asked whether ED triage nurses could accurately predict patients' in-hospital dispositions. A prediction was recorded for 521 ED patients, of whom 107 (20.5%) were ultimately admitted to the hospital. Nurses correctly anticipated 66 of 107 hospital admissions (sensitivity = 61.7%, PPV = 61.7%). With respect to predicting specific levels of inpatient care, nurses correctly anticipated 17 of 45 floor admissions (sensitivity = 37.8%, PPV = 34.7%), 14 of 33 step-down/monitored unit admissions (sensitivity = 42.4%, PPV = 48.3%), and 12 of 24 intensive care unit admissions (sensitivity = 50.0%, PPV = 66.7%). Lacking in sensitivity and positive predictive value, particularly with regard to specific levels of inpatient care, triage nurses' predictions may have limited potential to expedite the admission process.

Seeking care for nonurgent medical conditions in the emergency department: through the eyes of the patient

INTRODUCTION

The policy goal of shifting nonurgent visits from the emergency department to nonemergency health care settings is commonly devised, planned, and implemented without considering patients' perspectives. The purpose of this study was to gain an understanding of the context in which patients choose to seek health care in an emergency department. Human science provided the framework for this exploratory descriptive research study.

METHODS

This study was conducted at an urban, university emergency department in Denver, Colo. Uninsured adult patients triaged as nonurgent who were being discharged home were eligible to participate. Eligible patients from 15 randomly selected shifts were asked to participate. Following their ED visit, open-ended interviews began with the question, "Can you tell me the story, or the chain of events, that led to your coming to the emergency department today?" Each interview was audiotaped. Transcripts were analyzed to identify common themes. Patients also rated their severity of illness from 1 (not severe) to 5 (life-threatening), and they rated their satisfaction with the health care they received from 1 (not satisfied) to 5 (extremely satisfied).

RESULTS

The 30 study participants ranged in age from 17 to 60 years; 22 participants (73%) were women. Most patients (73%) rated their severity of illness as 3 or less and their satisfaction with the health care they received as 4 or more (83%). Five themes for seeking care were identified: (1) toughing it out, (2) symptoms overwhelming self-care measures, (3) calling a friend, (4) nowhere else to go, and (5) convenience. Despite the fact that the patients had nonurgent medical problems, their stories revealed that distress in their lives had influenced their need for emergency care.

CONCLUSIONS

Access was prominent in the minds of uninsured patients seeking ED care for nonurgent medical diagnoses. Typically, patients did not perceive themselves as having an urgent problem, had been unsuccessful in gaining access to alternative non-ED health care settings, and found the emergency department to be a convenient and quality source of health care. The patients' stories relayed a context for ED visits that goes beyond medical diagnoses. This perspective has important implications for quality care delivery and for including patients in planning ways to access emergency health care.

Safely directing patients to appropriate levels of care: guideline-driven triage in the emergency service

STUDY OBJECTIVE

We sought to develop and validate standardized clinical criteria to identify patients presenting to the emergency department whose care may be safely deferred to a later date in a nonemergency setting.

METHODS

Using a modified Delphi process, a 17-member multidisciplinary physician panel developed explicit, standardized, deferred-care criteria. In a prospective cohort design, emergency nurses at a tertiary care Veterans Administration (VA) Medical Center, using the criteria, screened 1,187 consecutive ambulatory adult patients presenting with abdominal pain, musculoskeletal symptoms, or respiratory infection symptoms. Patients meeting deferred-care criteria were offered the option of an appointment within 1 week in the ambulatory care clinic at the study site; all other patients were offered same-day care. As outcome measures, we assessed nonelective hospitalizations for related conditions occurring within 7 days of evaluation at our facility or any other VA facility within a 300-mile radius, and we assessed 30-day all-cause mortality.

RESULTS

Two hundred twenty-six (19%) patients met screening criteria for deferred care. Patients meeting deferred-care criteria experienced zero (95% confidence interval, 0% to 1.2%) related nonelective VA hospitalizations within 7 days of evaluation, and none died within 30 days. By contrast, 68 (7%) of 961 (95% confidence interval, 5.5% to 8.9%) patients who did not meet deferred-care criteria were hospitalized nonelectively for related conditions, and 5 (0.5%) died.

CONCLUSION

By using hospitalization and 30-day mortality as safety gauges, standardized clinical criteria can identify, at presentation, VA ED users who may be safely cared for at a later date in a nonemergency setting. These guidelines apply to a significant proportion of VA ED users with common ambulatory conditions. These criteria deserve testing in other ED settings.

Underestimation of case severity by emergency department patients: implications for managed care

The objective was to examine differences in symptom severity assessment by emergency department (ED) patients and by emergency physicians (EPs) and to relate these assessments with case management and disposition. The design was prospective convenience sample of ED patients. The setting was a U.S. university hospital ED with an annual ED patient census 28,000. The participants were all ED patients registered when first author was in ED; excluded were patients treated by the major trauma response team and those with a psychiatric chief complaint. All patients were interviewed by the first author and asked to classify their symptoms as emergent, urgent, or nonurgent; the EP attending classed patients' symptoms at presentation and after work-up was complete. Three hundred-one cases were entered in the study from May to August 1996. Although 28% of ED patients self-rated their symptoms as nonurgent, 5% of this group required hospital admission. Of this group 35% were assessed by the EP attending as having required emergent or urgent ED care. Of this group 5% also rated by the EP initially as nonurgent had their case severity upgraded after work-up. Reliance on either patient symptom self-assessment or physician screening assessment by telephone to determine appropriateness of an ED visit is not reliably safe for at least 5% of presenting patients. Even prospective ED visit severity assessment does not reliably identify "unnecessary" ED visits.

Managed care organization authorization denials: lack of patient knowledge and timely alternative ambulatory care

STUDY OBJECTIVE

To assess patient knowledge of managed care organization (MCO) regulations, availability of alternative ambulatory care, and patient outcome after MCO insurance authorization denial for an emergency department visit.

METHODS

A medical screening examination and a follow-up structured interview were conducted with patients denied authorization for ED visits. The study was conducted at a large urban hospital with 36,000 annual ED visits and 40% MCO patients.

RESULTS

During a 7-month period, 151 patients did not receive MCO authorization for ED care. The interview response rate was 75% (104/138) with 13 patients excluded. Eighty-three percent (86/104) of respondents came to the ED because they believed their problem was an emergency. Four percent (4/104) of the respondents had been instructed to go to the ED but were later denied authorization, whereas 85.6% (89/104) did not know that the MCO could deny payment. Only 37% (38/104) of the respondents reported having received instruction on the MCO preauthorization process, whereas of the 19% who contacted their MCO as instructed, all resulted in scheduling difficulties. Although 57% (59/104) received follow-up within 24 hours, 11% (11/104) of the respondents had a subsequent return visit to the ED with a subsequent admission rate of 4% (4/104).

CONCLUSION

Few patients are aware of the need for MCO preauthorization for ED care, and almost half do not receive alternative care within 24 hours. A significant number of patients (11%) returned to the ED with an admission rate of 4%.

Reliability and validity of a new five-level triage instrument

OBJECTIVES

Triage is the initial clinical sorting process in hospital emergency departments (EDs). Because of poor reproducibility and validity of three-level triage, the authors developed and validated a new five-level triage instrument, the Emergency Severity Index (ESI). The study objectives were: 1) to validate the triage instrument against ED patients' clinical resource and hospitalization needs, and 2) to measure the interrater reliability (reproducibility) of the instrument.

METHODS

This was a prospective, observational cohort study of a population-based convenience sample of adult patients triaged during 100 hours at two urban referral hospitals. Validation by resource use and hospitalization (criterion standards) and reproducibility by blinded paired triage assignments compared with weighted kappa analysis were assessed.

RESULTS

Five hundred thirty-eight patients were enrolled; 45 were excluded due to incomplete evaluations. The resulting cohort of 493 patients was 52% female, was 26% nonwhite, and had a median age of 40 years (range 16-95); overall, 159 (32%) patients were hospitalized. Weighted kappa for triage assignment was 0.80 (95% CI = 0.76 to 0.84). Resource use and hospitalization rates were strongly associated with triage level. For patients in category 5, only one-fourth (17/67) required any diagnostic test or procedure, and none were hospitalized (upper confidence limit, 5%). Conversely, in category 1, one of twelve patients was discharged (upper confidence limit, 25%), and none required fewer than two resources.

CONCLUSIONS

This five-level triage instrument was shown to be both valid and reliable in the authors' practice settings. It reproducibly triages patients into five distinct strata, from very high hospitalization/resource intensity to very low hospitalization/resource intensity.

Does this patient need to be evaluated today? Designing a guideline-driven triage process to determine the timing of care for adults with respiratory infection symptoms

BACKGROUND

Physicians and nurses often make judgments about the urgency with which patients require evaluation, yet few explicit process-of-care criteria are available to guide these decisions. Using a multidisciplinary expert physician panel and explicit, quantitative group judgment methods, standardized, clinically detailed deferred care criteria were developed to guide emergency department and ambulatory care triage decisions for same-day versus deferred care for patients with respiratory infection symptoms.

METHODS

Using a modified Delphi process, an eight-member multidisciplinary expert physician panel rated the safety of deferred care for standardized clinical scenarios. The ratings were converted into explicit criteria and then compared with usual implicit judgment in terms of nurse triage times.

RESULTS

The panel achieved 100% consensus on 36 critical clinical factors, each of which precludes deferring care for a patient with respiratory infection symptoms. Based on combinations of 12 additional clinical factors, 48 clinical scenarios were created that the panel rated for deferred care safety. Panelists' ratings agreed for 90% of clinical scenarios. These were formatted into screening criteria. Near-perfect interrater agreement (kappa = 0.9) was found in reproducibility testing. The difference in mean nurse triage times using the criteria compared with implicit nurse judgment was 0.4 minutes (95% confidence interval = -2.1 to 2.9 minutes).

CONCLUSIONS

Application of explicit criteria for deferring care of patients with respiratory infection symptoms did not lengthen triage time. This approach may facilitate more efficient resource management for ambulatory settings. However, widespread use before these criteria's, our systematic criteria-based triage should be validated in multicenter clinical trials against an outcome standard and the more common implicit approach.

How reliable is emergency department triage?

STUDY OBJECTIVE

To measure interrater and intrarater agreement for an emergency department triage system.

METHODS

A 2-phase experimental study was conducted using previously described in-person scripted encounters with emergency nurses who perform patient triage and attending emergency physicians at a tertiary referral center. Standardized patient scenarios were presented twice over 6 weeks. Participants rated severity for each patient using a 5-tier triage system (nurses only) and estimated the probability of hospital admission, the most appropriate time frame to physician evaluation (5 choices, from "Immediate" to "More than 24 hours"), the need for a monitored ED bed, and the need for diagnostic services. Interrater agreement was measured by a coefficient of agreement for multiple raters and multiple categories.

RESULTS

Of the 37 participants (fewer than 90% of those eligible), 19 (51%) completed both phases (12 nurses, 7 physicians). Four (33%) of the nurses assigned the same severity ratings for the 5 cases in phase 2 as they did in phase 1. Intrarater agreement among the 12 nurses rating triage severity was.757. Interrater agreement of nurses and physicians was substantial regarding need for ED monitoring, and moderate to substantial for other triage assessments.

CONCLUSION

There was general agreement in interrater assessment of triage classification. Continued work is necessary to more fully delineate areas of variation.

Retrospective denial of emergency department payments is inappropriate

Third-party payers typically use patients' discharge diagnoses to determine "appropriate" Emergency Department (ED) usage. This analysis compared the resource intensity involved in ED evaluation for "inappropriate" and all other ED visits. In this retrospective database review, 11 discharge diagnoses (DX11) (chronic nasopharyngitis; chronic sinusitis; chronic pharyngitis; rhinitis; constipation; head cold; hemorrhoids; toothache; flu; headache; and tension headache) were identified by a third party payor as being "inappropriate" for ED evaluation. The chief complaints of all patients seen in 1994 and 1995 with one of the DX11 were identified along with their E & M billing level, ED length of stay (LOS), and the frequency of consultation. In this urban, university trauma center, 1994 and 1995 visits totaled 120,402. Eighty-two different chief complaints were associated with a final diagnosis of DX11; 79% of all ED patients presented with one of the chief complaints (AllCC). Four percent of patients with DX11 were admitted, and the AllCC group had comparable resource utilization to the entire ED population. Patients' presenting complaints are incapable of predicting diagnosis or disposition. Retrospective denial of payment by discharge diagnosis is inappropriate.

Inconsistency of emergency department triage. Emergency Department Operations Research Working Group

STUDY OBJECTIVE

To measure the interrater and intrarater agreement of existing emergency department triage systems.

METHODS

This 2-phase experimental study of triage nurses' and EMTs ratings for 5 scripted patient scenarios used in-person interviews and follow-up written surveys.

RESULTS

Eighty-seven participants (> 90% of those eligible) with 55 (63%) completed both phases of the study. Interrater agreement on triage category was poor (kappa = .347 overall). Only 13 of 55 (24%) participants rated the 5 cases the same severity in both phases; Kendall correlation (iota-B) comparing phases 1 and 2 varied from .145 to .554. Estimates of admission probability varied widely. Estimates of the appropriate time to physician evaluation (from immediate to 24 hours) was often incongruous with severity ratings (e.g., 54% of those participants rating a case the lowest severity recommended evaluation within 8 hours). There was good agreement on estimated need for an ED monitored bed or diagnostic studies.

CONCLUSION

Triage assessments (both interrater and intrarater) by experienced personnel are inconsistent using these 5 standardized patient scenarios. These results challenge the reliability of current ED triage practice.

Can primary care and community-based models of emergency care substitute for the hospital accident and emergency (A & E) department?

This systematic review assesses the extent to which primary-secondary substitution is possible in the field of emergency care where the range of options for the delivery of care is increasing in the UK and elsewhere. Thirty-four studies were located which met the review inclusion criteria, covering a range of interventions. This evidence suggested that broadening access to primary care and introducing user charges or other barriers to the hospital accident and emergency (A & E) department can reduce demand for expensive secondary care, although the relative cost-effectiveness of these interventions remains unclear. On a smaller scale, employing primary care professionals in the hospital A & E department to treat patients attending with minor illness or injury seems to be a cost-effective method of substituting primary for secondary care resources. Interventions that addressed both sides of the primary-secondary interface and recognised the importance of patient preferences in the largely demand-driven emergency service were more likely to succeed in complementing rather than duplicating existing services. The evidence on other interventions such as telephone triage, minor injuries units and general practitioner out of hours co-operatives was sparse despite the fact that these interventions are growing rapidly in the UK. Quantifying the scope for substitution in any one health system is difficult since the evidence comes from international research studies undertaken in a variety of very different health settings. Simply transferring interventions which succeed in one setting without understanding the underlying process of change is likely to result in unexpected consequences locally. Nevertheless, the review findings clearly demonstrate that shifting the balance of care is possible. It also highlights a persistent gap in professional and lay perceptions of appropriate sources of care for minor illness and injury.

Adverse outcomes of managed care gatekeeping

OBJECTIVES

To determine whether telephone preauthorization for reimbursement of ED care (medical "gate-keeping") by managed care organizations (MCOs) is associated with adverse outcomes.

METHODS

A structured review was performed of case reports solicited during 1994 and 1995 with possible adverse outcomes related to managed care gatekeeping. Gatekeeping was defined as the requirement imposed by an MCO that ED staff contact on-call gatekeepers (i.e., clinical or nonclinical MCO personnel) to request preauthorization for ED treatment (a requirement that such MCOs enforce by refusing payment for the ED care unless preauthorization is obtained). Cases in which gatekeeper denial of preauthorization occurred were sought. Two physicians agreed on patient eligibility and classification criteria, then independently, retrospectively classified case reports identified as MCO ED payment denials into 1 of 4 categories: 1) adverse outcome; 2) patient placed at increased risk of death or disability; 3) "near miss" (emergency physicians prevented adverse outcome by caring for patient despite denial); and 4) none of the above.

RESULTS

Of the 143 cases reviewed, 29 reports represented MCO ED payment denial. Of these 29 eligible cases, there were 4 (14%) patients with adverse outcomes, 4 (14%) patients placed at increased risk, and 21 (72%) near misses. All of the 29 cases came from different EDs, representing 9 different states, with the majority from California. Adverse outcomes included respiratory failure from fulminant meningococcemia, hypovolemic syncope from ruptured ectopic pregnancy, hypovolemic arrest from vascular fibroid hemorrhage necessitating emergency hysterectomy, and prolonged postoperative course following ruptured duodenal ulcer. Patients placed at increased risk were diagnosed as having epiglottitis, myocardial infarction, ruptured ectopic pregnancy, and delayed treatment of hip septic arthritis. Near misses included diagnoses of ectopic pregnancy (n = 2), pneumothorax (n = 2), alcohol withdrawal seizures and pancreatitis necessitating intensive care unit admission, appendicitis, bacterial meningitis, cerebrovascular accident, cryptococal meningitis in immuno comprised host, endocarditis, incarerated inguinal hernia, meningocococemia, meninoccocal meningitis, peritonsillar abscess, pneumococcal meningitis, ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm, shock from gastrointestinal bleeding, small bowel obstruction, schizophrenic crisis resulting in psychiatric hospitalization, suicidal depression resulting in psychiatric hospitalization, and unstable angina.

CONCLUSION

Adverse outcomes occur with MCO gatekeeping, Although the present study cannot ascertain whether this is a frequent event or a rare one, the safety of MCO gatekeeping deserves further study.

Denial of emergency department authorization of potentially high-risk patients by managed care

This study was designed to evaluate patients presenting to a large urban university emergency department (ED) who were subsequently denied authorization for reimbursed care by their managed care provider and to characterize the denial as potentially safe or unsafe based on published triage criteria. A consecutive case surveillance was performed from October 1, 1994 to September 30, 1995 at a university-based ED (30,000 visits per year) for adult patients in inner-city Chicago. Cases were comprised of adult managed care participants whose providers refused by telephone to authorize payment for ED services and who then left the ED without treatment. Chief complaints and vital signs were used to categorize patients as high-risk or nonemergent based on previously published criteria. A total of 2,965 adult managed care patients presented to the ED during the study period, representing 11.1% of the total ED census. Of these patients, 244 (8.2%) were denied authorization for payment of their care. By previously established criteria, 115 (47.1%) were identified as potentially unstable, 61 (53%) due to abnormal vital signs and 54 (47%) with other high-risk indications such as severe pain, chest pain, or abdominal pain. These potentially high-risk patients may subsequently suffer adverse outcomes. Current guidelines used for telephone triage by managed care to divert patients from our ED do not meet previously published safe triage criteria.

Managed care and emergency medicine: conflicts, federal law, and California legislation

The traditional use of the American ED, one of unrestricted access by patients and payment for services by insurers, is being questioned in this era of health care reform. Both primary care physicians and managed care organizations have questioned the use of the ED by patients without obvious problems of an emergency nature. We attempt to address this issue from the emergency medicine and managed care perspectives.

Patients' satisfaction when denied authorization for emergency department care by their managed care plan

We conducted a survey of managed care plan (MCP) patients who presented to the emergency department (ED) but were denied insurance authorization during a 3-month period. Patients were identified by triage or registration records, contacted by telephone after their visit, and surveyed regarding their satisfaction with the ED and MCP, follow-up care, and future behavior. We surveyed 72 (73.4%) of 98 subjects who were denied authorization. Forty-nine (68.1%) were redirected to a clinic or primary physician, 14 (19.4%) to an urgent care or other ED, and 9 (12.5%) were given no follow-up. Fifty-five respondents (76.4%) stated they had followed-up as directed, but 34 (47.2%) felt the delay had a negative impact. Thirty-nine (54.2%) were dissatisfied with their MCP. If their problems were to recur, 27 (37.5%) stated they would go to a clinic or call their MCP, but 34 (47.2%) would return to the ED. Many patients who are denied authorization are dissatisfied with their MCP and will return to the ED in the future, despite previous denials.

Effect of a copayment on use of the emergency department in a health maintenance organization

BACKGROUND

Use of the emergency department for nonemergency care is frequent and costly. We studied the effect of a copayment on emergency department use in a group-model health maintenance organization (HMO).

METHODS

We examined the use of the emergency department in 1992 and 1993 by 30,276 subjects who ranged in age from 1 to 63 years at the start of the study and belonged to the Kaiser Permanente HMO in northern California. We assessed their use of various HMO services and their clinical outcomes before and after the introduction of a copayment of $25 to $35 for using the emergency department. This copayment group was compared with two randomly selected control groups not affected by the copayment. One control group, with 60,408 members, was matched for age, sex, and area of residence to the copayment group. The second, with 37,539 members, was matched for these factors and also for the type of employer.

RESULTS

After adjustment for age, sex, socioeconomic status, and use of the emergency department in 1992, the decline in the number of visits in 1993 was 14.6 percentage points greater in the copayment group than in either control group (P<0.001 for each comparison). Visits for urgent care did not increase among subjects in any stratum defined by age and sex, and neither did the number of outpatient visits by adults and children. The decline in emergency visits for presenting conditions classified as "always an emergency" was small and not significant. For conditions classified as "often an emergency". "sometimes not an emergency", or "often not an emergency", the declines in the use of the emergency department were larger and statistically significant, and they increased with decreasing severity of the presenting condition. Although our ability to detect any adverse effects of the copayment was limited, there was no suggestion of excess adverse events in the copayment group, such as increases in mortality or in the number of potentially avoidable hospitalizations.

CONCLUSIONS

Among members of an HMO, the introduction of a small copayment for the use of the emergency department was associated with a decline of about 15 percent in the use of that department, mostly among patients with conditions considered likely not to present an emergency.

Continuous quality improvement reduces length of stay for fast-track patients in an emergency department

OBJECTIVE

To demonstrate how continuous quality improvement (CQI) can identify rational and effective means to reduce length of stay for minor illness/injury in an ED.

METHODS

A CQI team documented the process of fast-track (FT) patient flow and prioritized the causes of delay. In Phase I, two solutions were implemented. In this Phase II of the study, three changes were implemented, including expansion of the FT area, realignment to provide a full-time FT nurse, and a detailed, stricter triage classification. The outcome was assessed by examining the interval from presentation to release from the ED (length of stay; LOS). Differences were ascertained by analysis variance for consecutive FT patients not requiring radiography, ECG, or blood testing. Intervals from three pre-Phase II intervention 48-hour periods and one post-Phase II intervention 48-hour period were analyzed.

RESULTS

Before the Phase I changes, the mean +/- SD LOS was 92 +/- 46 min. After the Phase I changes, the LOS was 67 +/- 31 min. After the Phase II changes, this was reduced to 57 +/- 34 min (p < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

The formal application of CQI techniques in the ED can change patient flow and reduce LOS for FT patients.

Health care reform and emergency medicine

The twin goals of health care reform--providing universal coverage and limiting health care costs--will require increased primary care access and reductions in the overuse of inappropriate subspecialty interventions. The emergency department provides acute care access for all patients and nonemergency care for those patients unable to find other sources of care. Implementation of marketplace reforms may direct patients away from EDs to other primary care sites and reallocate residency positions now available for training of emergency physicians to other primary care specialties. These two effects may endanger the viability of the ED as the safety net of the health care system. The impact of health care reform on the emergency care system of the nation requires careful analysis to protect the important role of the ED in providing acute care and in guaranteeing access to care.

Clinical emergency medicine, today and tomorrow

Properly staffed and equipped EDs are essential to a modern system of health care. In a relatively brief period, emergency medicine has emerged as a major medical specialty. Despite formidable barriers, emergency medicine has substantially improved the quality of prehospital and ED care in the United States. If sufficient support for the specialty can be secured, the future of emergency medicine is bright. If not, the nature of emergency care in the United States will be profoundly changed for years to come.