Trajectory classes of depressive symptoms in a community sample of older adults

Long-Term Depressive Symptom Trajectories and Midlife Cognition: The CARDIA Study

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

The nature of associations between depressive symptoms and cognition early in the life course remains unclear, and racial differences in these associations are not well characterized. The aim of this study was to examine the relationship between trajectories of depressive symptom over 20 years, beginning in young adulthood, and cognitive functions in middle-age among Black and White adults.

METHODS

We used prospective data from participants of the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults Study. Depressive symptoms were measured at 5 study visits between 1990 and 2010 using the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression scale. We used latent class group-based modeling to identify 4 trajectories: "persistently low," "persistently medium," "medium decreasing," and "high increasing" depressive symptoms. In 2015, cognitive function was measured using the Digit Symbol Substitution Test (DSST), Stroop test (reverse coded), and Rey Auditory-Verbal Learning Test (RAVLT).We excluded participants who missed the cognitive battery or had no depressive symptoms measurements, resulting in a total of 3,117 participants. All cognitive tests were standardized, and linear regression was used to relate depressive trajectories with 2015 cognitive functions.

RESULTS

The mean [SD] baseline age was 30.1 [3.6] years, and 57% were female. The associations between depressive symptoms and cognition significantly differed by race (p < 0.05). Among Black individuals, compared with having "persistently low," having "medium decreasing," "persistently medium," or "high increasing" depressive symptoms were associated with worse verbal memory, processing speed, and executive function scores (RAVLT persistently medium vs low: β = -0.30, 95% CI -0.48 to -0.12; and high increasing vs low: β = -0.49, 95% CI -0.70 to -0.27; DSST persistently medium vs low: β = -0.28, 95% CI -0.47 to -0.09; and high increasing vs low: β = -0.64, 95% CI -0.87 to -0.42; Stroop persistently medium vs low: β = -0.46, 95% CI -0.70 to -0.23; and high increasing vs low: β = -0.76, 95% CI -1.04 to -0.47). Associations were slightly weaker among White individuals, but we still found that having 'high increasing' depressive symptoms was associated with worse verbal memory and processing speed scores (high increasing vs low: β = -0.38, 95% CI -0.61 to -0.15; and β = -0.40, 95% CI -0.63 to -0.18, respectively).

DISCUSSION

Prolonged exposure to elevated depressive symptoms beginning in young adulthood may result in worse cognitive function over midlife. This association was stronger among Black adults.

Lifestyle factors, physical health, and life satisfaction under different changes in depressive symptoms among Chinese community-dwelling older adults: A longitudinal analysis

BACKGROUND

The study aims to investigate the long-term impact of lifestyle-related factors and physical health on life satisfaction and depressive symptoms among Chinese community-dwelling older adults.

METHODS

Using data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS), the analytic sample of this study included 1,068 older adults who had participated in the surveys in both 2011 and 2018. Multivariate regression was employed to analyze both cross-sectional and longitudinal relationships between lifestyle-related factors, physical health, and subjective well-being - specifically depressive symptoms and life satisfaction. Additionally, the model tested how these factors correlate with life satisfaction across different groups of depressive symptom changes among older adults, categorized as not at risk of depression, intermittent depression, and chronic depression.

RESULTS

Multimorbidity was significantly related to baseline and follow-up depressive risk in older adults. Shorter sleep duration was associated with baseline depression risk. Current alcohol drinkers reported significantly more severe depressive symptoms than non-drinkers. At baseline, current smokers were more likely to have a lower degree of life satisfaction than nonsmokers. Among older adults with chronic depression at the 7-year follow-up, former smokers tended to have lower life satisfaction than nonsmokers.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings identified drinking alcohol and having a shorter sleep duration as modifiable lifestyle-related risk factors for late-life depression and smoking as a detrimental factor for life satisfaction in older Chinese adults. Multimorbidity was a significant predictor of more depressive symptoms. Our findings have implications for future psychosocial interventions that target the alleviation of depressive symptoms and the promotion of life satisfaction in older Chinese people based on their different long-term mental and physical health conditions.

Trajectories of depressive symptom and its association with air pollution: evidence from the Mr. OS and Ms. OS Hong Kong cohort study

BACKGROUND

Depression is a global health priority. Maintaining and delaying depressive symptoms in older adults is a key to healthy aging. This study aimed to identify depressive symptom trajectories, predictors and mortality, while also exploring the relationship between air quality and depressive symptoms in older adults in the Hong Kong community over 14 years.

METHODS

This study is a longitudinal study in Hong Kong. The target population was community-dwelling older adults over age 65. Depressive symptoms were measured by the Geriatric Depression Scale (GDS-15). Group-based trajectory model was used to identify heterogeneity in longitudinal changes over 14 years and examine the associations between baseline variables and trajectories for different cohort members using multinomial logistic regression. The Kaplan-Meier method was employed to conduct survival analysis and explore the variations in survival probabilities over time among different trajectory group. Linear mixed model was used to explore the relationship between air quality and depressive symptoms.

RESULTS

A total of 2828 older adults were included. Three different trajectories of depressive symptoms in older people were identified: relatively stable (15.4%), late increase (67.1%) and increase (17.5%). Female, more number of chronic diseases, poor cognitive function, and poor health-related quality of life (HRQOL) were significantly associated with other less favorable trajectories compared with participants with stable levels of depressive symptoms. The late increase group had a lower mortality rate than the relatively stable and increased groups. Lower baseline ambient air pollutant exposure to NO2 over 14 years was significantly associated with fewer depressive symptoms.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, we found that a late increase in depressive symptoms was the predominant trend in older Chinese people in Hong Kong. Poorer HRQOL was predictive of less favorable trajectories of depressive symptoms. Ambient air pollution was associated with depressive symptoms. This novel observation strengthens the epidemiological evidence of longitudinal changes in depressive symptoms and associations with late-life exposure to air pollution.

Childhood maltreatment and association with trajectories of depressive symptoms among older adults: a longitudinal study in China

OBJECTIVES

Childhood maltreatment has long-lasting effects on mental health. Existing evidence suggests that trajectories of depressive symptoms vary among individuals; however, little is known about how childhood maltreatment shapes these trajectory patterns. Therefore, this study investigated the impacts of childhood maltreatment on eight-year depressive trajectories among Chinese older adults.

METHOD

Five waves of longitudinal data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study were utilized. Growth Mixture Modelling was performed to identify distinct trajectories of depressive symptoms, and multinomial logistic regression was conducted to explore the associations between these trajectories and childhood maltreatment.

RESULTS

Four trajectories of depressive symptoms were identified: the 'no symptoms' class (61.83%), the 'increasing symptoms' class (14.49%), the 'decreasing symptoms' class (16.44%), and the 'chronic symptoms' class (7.24%). Older adults who experienced childhood physical abuse were more likely to be in the 'chronic symptoms' class than in the 'no symptoms' class, whereas emotional neglect did not show a significant association with three problematic trajectories.

CONCLUSION

This study provides empirical evidence that childhood physical abuse increases the likelihood of developing chronic depressive symptoms in later life. To mitigate this risk, it is crucial to institute comprehensive treatment plans that incorporate trauma-informed care principles, employ evidence-based therapies specifically designed to address the long-term effects of abuse, and prioritize regular screening and assessment of mental health among older adults.

Patterns of physical and mental co-occurring developmental health among Chinese elderly: A multidimensional growth mixture model analysis

Background

This study focuses on the heterogeneity, interaction, and imbalance in the concurrent development of physical and mental health trajectories among Chinese elderly.

Methods

The data used in this study are from four waves of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHRLS) conducted between 2011 and 2018. A multidimensional growth mixture model (MGMM) was employed to analyze the patterns and characteristics of co-occurring physical and mental health development. Additionally, multinomial logistic regression analysis was conducted to systematically investigate the factors that predict the conjoint trajectories of physical and mental health.

Results

The study findings reveal the presence of four distinct latent classes of conjoint trajectories for physical and mental health. These classes are categorized as follows: 'physical and mental health deteriorating', 'physical disease increasing & low mental vulnerability maintaining', 'low physical & mental vulnerability maintaining', and 'high physical disease increased & mental health moderate-stable'. Furthermore, demographic characteristics, socioeconomic status, family-society relations, health behaviors, and institutional factors were found to significantly predict these latent classes.

Conclusion

The study emphasizes the diversity and complexity of physical and mental co-occurring developmental health issues in the elderly population in China. These findings have significant implications for the development of targeted intervention strategies that take into account the unique health changes experienced by older adults. Additionally, they can serve as evidence for the establishment of a comprehensive long-term care system.

Poor mobility and lower limb weakness are associated with three distinct depressive symptom trajectories over 6 years in older people

OBJECTIVES

Physical decline can be associated with the onset of depressive symptoms in later life. This study aimed to identify physical and lifestyle risk factors for depressive symptom trajectories in community-dwelling older adults.

METHODS

Participants were 553 people aged 70-90 years who underwent baseline physical, psychological and lifestyle assessments. Group-based trajectory analysis was used to identify patterns of depressive symptom development over 6 years of follow-up. Strengths of associations between baseline functional test performances and depressive symptom trajectories were evaluated with univariable ordinal models. Subsequently, the adjusted cumulative odds ratio for the association between identified risk factors, demographic factors and baseline anti-depressant use were measured using multivariable ordinal logistic regression.

RESULTS

Three distinct depressive symptom trajectories were identified: a low-and-stable course (10% of participants), a low-and-increasing course (81%) and a moderate-and-increasing course (9%). Timed Up and Go test time was the strongest risk factor of depressive symptom trajectory, followed by Five Times Sit-to-Stand test performance, planned physical activity levels, and knee extension strength (adjusted standardised ORs 1.65, 95% CI 1.34-2.04; 1.44, 95% CI 1.16-1.77; 1.44, 95% CI 1.17-1.76 and 1.41, 95% CI 1.15-1.73 respectively). After adjusting for age, sex, body mass index and baseline anti-depressant use, Timed Up and Go test performance and knee extension strength were independently and significantly associated with depressive trajectories.

CONCLUSIONS

Timed Up and Go test times, Five Times Sit-to-Stand test performance, planned physical activity levels and knee extension strength are associated with three discrete depressive symptom trajectories. These clinical tests may help identify older adults aged 70-90 years at risk of developing depressive symptoms and help guide subsequent strength and mobility interventions.

Individual mental health patterns and the role of lifestyle among ageing adults over 20 years - the Doetinchem Cohort Study

OBJECTIVE

We explored the prevalence of individual mental health patterns and the role of lifestyle factors over 20 years.

STUDY DESIGN

We used data from the Doetinchem Cohort Study (1995-2019), a population-based study amongst adults (26-90 years) examined every five years in the Netherlands. Participants were classified in five pre-defined mental health patterns (persistent good, persistent poor, worsening, improving, varying) over 20 years (five rounds) using the MHI-5 questionnaire. BMI, sleep, smoking, alcohol consumption, and physical activity were dichotomised as healthy/unhealthy based on guidelines. The role of lifestyle at baseline (t1), 20 years later (t5), and longitudinally over 20 years (using pre-defined patterns) was explored using logistic regression.

RESULTS

Most participants had good mental health at t1 (85 %) and t5 (88 %). Over 20 years, 67 % followed a persistent good mental health pattern, 30 % a changing pattern, and 3 % a persistent poor pattern. Persistent poor and changing patterns were associated with unhealthy sleep and smoking at t1, t5, and with the 20-year unhealthy patterns. Persistent poor mental health was associated with stable unhealthy and changing sleep (OR=5.58(2.48-12.54) and OR=2.07(1.14-3.74), respectively), and with stable unhealthy and changing smoking (OR=3.35(1.58-7.11) and OR=2.53(1.40-4.57), respectively). Changing mental health was associated with changing (OR=1.54(1.26-1.88) and OR=1.64(1.30-2.07), respectively) and stable unhealthy (OR=1.80(1.23-2.64) and OR=2.24(1.60-3.14), respectively) sleep and smoking, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Persistent good and changing mental health patterns were more common than poor mental health in adults and were associated with smoking and sleep. Clarifying the underlying mechanisms and directionality between mental health and lifestyle could improve interventions.

A happy home? Socio-economic inequalities in depressive symptoms and the role of housing quality in nine European countries

BACKGROUND

This study examines the prevalence of and socio-economic inequalities in depressive symptoms in nine high-income European countries, focusing in particular on the role of housing quality.

METHODS

Using the European Social Survey, a concentration index of depressive symptoms in each country is estimated. The role of housing quality is assessed by examining the risk factors associated with the concentration index, using the Recentred Influence Function method. To contextualise the housing quality results, other predictors of inequalities in depressive symptoms inequalities are also quantified and discussed.

RESULTS

Our results indicate that inequalities in depressive symptoms are concentrated among poorer respondents both in each country and in total. Austria and Belgium have the lowest inequalities and France has the highest. No geographic pattern is evident. Housing problems are associated with higher inequalities in six of the nine countries in the sample. While no association is evident for indicators of socio-economic status such as years of education and income, financial strain is significant.

CONCLUSIONS

This study is the first to estimate the degree of socio-economic inequality in depressive symptoms across European countries. The association between poor housing and poorer inequalities suggests that housing has a role to play lowering depressive symptoms inequalities.

Trajectories of depressive symptoms among older African Americans: the influence of neighborhood characteristics and gender

OBJECTIVES

Focusing on older African Americans, this study aims to (1) identify 9-year trajectories of depressive symptoms, (2) examine the association between baseline neighborhood characteristics (i.e., social cohesion and physical disadvantage) and trajectories of depressive symptoms, and (3) test whether the effects of neighborhood characteristics on depressive symptoms trajectories differ by gender.

METHODS

Data came from the National Health and Aging Trend Study. Older African Americans at baseline were selected (N = 1662) and followed up for eight rounds. Depressive symptom trajectories were estimated using group-based trajectory modeling. Weighted multinomial logistic regressions were conducted.

RESULTS

Three trajectories of depressive symptoms were identified: "persistently low," "moderate and increasing," and "high and decreasing" (Objective 1). Objective 2 and 3 were partially supported. Specifically, high perceived neighborhood social cohesion was associated with a lower relative risk of being on the "moderate and increasing" versus the "persistently low" trajectory (RRR = 0.64, p < 0.01). The association between neighborhood physical disadvantage and depressive symptom trajectories was stronger among older African American men compared to women.

CONCLUSIONS

High levels of neighborhood social cohesion may protect against increasing depressive symptoms in older African Americans. Compared to women, older African American men may be more vulnerable to negative mental health effects of neighborhood physical disadvantage.

Multiple trajectories of depressive symptoms among Chinese in middle and late life: Characterization and risk factors

BACKGROUND

Depressive symptoms, which are continuously changing, are an essential manifestation of depression and can increase the risk of mental disorders and other diseases. Because the causes and cures for depression have not yet been identified, finding the characteristics, and risk factors of depressive symptom trajectories can help us identify at-risk populations early and reduce the related public disease burden.

AIMS

Herein we aimed to figure out the specific manifestations of depressive symptom trajectories among Chinese adults, explore the risk profiles of trajectory groups with higher depression burdens, and test the longitudinal associations between blood biomarkers with depressive symptoms.

METHODS

Trajectories of participants' depressive symptoms measured by the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression scores were modeled with growth mixture models from 2011 to 2018. Multinomial logistic models tested associations of baseline covariates with trajectories. Generalized estimating equations were used to explore the longitudinal associations between blood data and depressive symptoms in two waves from 2011 to 2015.

RESULTS

Among the sample of 5,641 individuals aged 40 or over, four heterogeneous depressive symptom trajectories were defined: stable-low, high-decrease, stable-high, and low-increase. At baseline, demographic factors and health statuses such as gender, education, income, and self-reported health status were associated with trajectories. A significant association was found between high-density lipoprotein and depressive symptoms.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings provide clues for predicting and identifying adults with elevated depression burdens in middle and late life and may facilitate the development of targeted preventive strategies for this population.

Depression and Anxiety Trajectories in Chronic Disease: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

INTRODUCTION

People living with chronic diseases are at an increased risk of anxiety and depression, which are associated with poorer medical and psychosocial outcomes. Many studies have examined the trajectories of depression and anxiety in people with specific diseases, including the predictors of these trajectories. This is valuable for understanding the process of adjustment to diseases and informing treatment planning. However, no review has yet synthesised this information across chronic diseases.

METHODS

Electronic databases were searched for studies reporting trajectories of depression or anxiety in chronic disease samples. Data extracted included sample characteristics, results from trajectory analyses, and predictors of trajectories. Meta-analysis of the overall pooled prevalence of depression and anxiety trajectories was conducted, and qualitative synthesis of disease severity predictors was undertaken.

RESULTS

Following search and screening, 67 studies were included (N = 61,201 participants). Most participants followed a stable nonclinical trajectory for depression (69.0% [95% CI: 65.6, 72.2]) and anxiety (73.4% [95% CI: 66.3, 79.5]). Smaller but meaningful subsamples followed a trajectory of depression and anxiety symptoms consistently in the clinical range (11.8% [95% CI: 9.2, 14.8] and 13.7% [95% CI: 9.3, 19.7], respectively). Several clinical and methodological moderators emerged, and qualitative synthesis suggested that few aspects of disease severity were associated with participants' trajectories.

CONCLUSION

Most people with chronic disease follow a trajectory of distress that is low and stable, suggesting that most people psychologically adjust to living with chronic disease. Evidence also suggests that the nature and severity of the disease are not meaningful predictors of psychological distress.

Trajectories of depressive symptoms and their predictors in Chinese older population: Growth Mixture model

BACKGROUND

Given the rapidly rising proportion of the older population in China and the relatively high prevalence of depressive symptoms among this population, this study aimed to identify the trajectories of depressive symptoms and the factors associated with the trajectory class to gain a better understanding of the long-term course of depressive symptoms in this population.

METHODS

Data were obtained from four wave's survey of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS). A total of 3646 participants who aged 60 years or older during baseline survey, and completed all follow-ups were retained in this study. Depressive symptoms were measured using the 10-item version of the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CES-D-10). Growth mixture modelling (GMM) was adopted to identify the trajectory classes of depressive symptoms, and both linear and quadratic functions were considered. A multivariate logistic regression model was used to calculate the adjusted odds ratios (ORs) of the associated factors to predict the trajectory class of participants.

RESULTS

A four-class quadratic function model was the best-fitting model for the trajectories of depressive symptoms in the older Chinese population. The four trajectories were labelled as increasing (16.70%), decreasing (12.31%), high and stable (7.30%), and low and stable (63.69%), according to their trends. Except for the low and stable trajectory, the other trajectories were almost above the threshold for depressive symptoms. The multivariate logistic regression model suggested that the trajectories of chronic depressive symptoms could be predicted by being female, living in a village (rural area), having a lower educational level, and having chronic diseases.

CONCLUSIONS

This study identified four depressive symptom trajectories in the older Chinese population and analysed the factors associated with the trajectory class. These findings can provide references for prevention and intervention to reduce the chronic course of depressive symptoms in the older Chinese population.

Social network typologies moderate the association of loneliness with depressive symptomatology in middle-aged and older adults

Background

Depression remains among the most prevalent mental disorders, and it severely affects daily functioning and quality of life. There has been extensive research reporting on the impact of social relationships on depression, but much of this research has only considered isolated aspects of relationships. This study derived social network types based on the multiple components of social relationships, and then investigated their effects on depressive symptoms.

Methods

Using samples of 620 adults (M_age = 53.52), Latent Profile Analysis (LPA) was conducted to uncover network types based on the structural (network size, contact frequency, marital status, and social engagement), functional (levels of support and conflict), and qualitative (satisfaction with relationships) aspects of social relationships. Multiple regressions were used to test if distinct network types directly impact on depressive symptoms and whether network types moderate the association of loneliness (perceived social isolation) with depressive symptoms.

Results

LPA identified four distinct network types (diverse, family-focused, friend-focused, and restricted) and there were significant differences in depressive symptoms among four network types. Analysis using the BCH method showed that individuals in the restricted network type had the highest depressive symptoms, followed in order by individuals in the friend-focused, family-focused, and diverse network types. Regression results further indicated that an individual's network network type membership was significantly associated with depressive symptoms, and being in the diverse and family-focused network types alleviated the negative effect of loneliness on depressive symptoms.

Conclusion

The results suggest that both quantitative and qualitative aspects of social relationships are important in buffering against the adverse effect of loneliness on depressive symptoms. These findings underscore the utility of taking a multi-dimensional approach to uncover heterogeneity in the social networks of adults and their implications on depression.

Instrumental support primarily provided by adult children and trajectories of depressive symptoms among older adults with disabilities in rural China

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to examine the trajectories of depressive symptoms over a 5-year period in a sample of community-dwelling older adults with disabilities in rural China, and the association between duration of instrumental support primarily provided by adult children and the trajectories of depressive symptoms.

METHODS

Data were drawn from three waves of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (2011-2015). The sample included 1,466 older adults living in rural areas aged 60 and over who had at least one child in all three waves. Duration of instrumental support provided by adult children was measured by the number of waves that older adults received instrumental support primarily from any adult children in the data collection. Growth mixture modelling was used to identify the trajectory classes of depressive symptoms among these older adults, and logistic regression was used to examine the association between duration of instrumental support primarily provided by adult children and the trajectory classes of depressive symptoms.

RESULTS

This study identified two distinct trajectories of depressive symptoms among the respondents: high but decreasing levels of symptoms and persistently low levels of symptoms. Respondents who received a longer duration of instrumental support primarily from adult children were more likely to have high but decreasing symptoms after controlling for other covariates.

CONCLUSION

The findings have important implications for promoting the mental health of older adults with disabilities in rural China. There are still very limited long-term care services and programs are available for older adults, particularly in rural China. It is critical to develop these services at both community and institutional levels to meet the care needs of older adults and their families.

Depressive Symptom Trajectories and Cognition Among Older American Couples: A Dyadic Perspective

OBJECTIVES

This study examined whether trajectories of depressive symptoms of one spouse are associated with the other spouse's memory.

METHODS

Longitudinal data from the Health and Retirement Study (2004-2016) were used (N = 5690 heterosexual couples). Latent-class growth analysis and structural equation models examined the actor and partner effects of depressive symptom trajectories on memory.

RESULTS

Four depressive symptom trajectories were identified (i.e., persistently low, increasing, decreasing, and persistently high). Compared to the low trajectory group, the increasing and persistently high trajectories were associated with worse memory for both men and women. While none of the wives' depressive symptom trajectories was significantly associated with husbands' memory (p > .05), husbands' decreasing trajectory was linked to wives' better memory (β = 0.498, 95% CI = 0.106, 0.890).

DISCUSSION

Older adults with increasing and persistently high depressive symptoms may experience worse memory. Psychosocial interventions targeting depressive symptoms among older men may be beneficial to their spouses' memory.

Prediction of depressive symptoms onset and long-term trajectories in home-based older adults using machine learning techniques

OBJECTIVES

Our aim was to explore the possibility of using machine learning (ML) in predicting the onset and trajectories of depressive symptom in home-based older adults over a 7-year period.

METHODS

Depressive symptom data (collected in the year 2011, 2013, 2015 and 2018) of home-based older Chinese (n = 2650) recruited in the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) were included in the current analysis. The latent class growth modeling (LCGM) and growth mixture modeling (GMM) were used to classify different trajectory classes. Based on the identified trajectory patterns, three ML classification algorithms (i.e. gradient boosting decision tree, support vector machine and random forest) were evaluated with a 10-fold cross-validation procedure and a metric of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).

RESULTS

Four trajectories were identified for the depressive symptoms: no symptoms (63.9%), depressive symptoms onset {incident increasing symptoms [new-onset increasing (16.8%)], chronic symptoms [slowly decreasing (12.5%), persistent high (6.8%)]}. Among the analyzed baseline variables, the 10-item Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CESD-10) score, cognition, sleep time, self-reported memory were the top five important predictors across all trajectories. The mean AUCs of the three predictive models had a range from 0.661 to 0.892.

CONCLUSIONS

ML techniques can be robust in predicting depressive symptom onset and trajectories over a 7-year period with easily accessible sociodemographic and health information.

Supplemental data for this article is available online at http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/13607863.2022.2031868.

A hybrid machine learning model of depression estimation in home-based older adults: a 7-year follow-up study

BACKGROUND

Our aim was to explore whether a two-step hybrid machine learning model has the potential to discover the onset of depression in home-based older adults.

METHODS

Depression data (collected in the year 2011, 2013, 2015 and 2018) of home-based older Chinese (n = 2,548) recruited in the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study were included in the current analysis. The long short-term memory network (LSTM) was applied to identify the risk factors of participants in 2015 utilizing the first 2 waves of data. Based on the identified predictors, three ML classification algorithms (i.e., gradient boosting decision tree, support vector machine and random forest) were evaluated with a 10-fold cross-validation procedure and a metric of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) to estimate the depressive outcome.

RESULTS

Time-varying predictors of the depression were successfully identified by LSTM (mean squared error =0.8). The mean AUCs of the three predictive models had a range from 0.703 to 0.749. Among the prediction variables, self-reported health status, cognition, sleep time, self-reported memory and ADL (activities of daily living) disorder were the top five important variables.

CONCLUSIONS

A two-step hybrid model based on "LSTM+ML" framework can be robust in predicting depression over a 5-year period with easily accessible sociodemographic and health information.

Associations of dual sensory impairment with long-term depressive and anxiety symptoms in the United States

OBJECTIVE

We explored the associations of dual sensory impairment (DSI) with long-term depressive and anxiety symptoms as well as low perceived social support (LPSS) as a modifier of these associations.

METHODS

Multinomial logistic regression models were used to examine the associations of DSI and single sensory impairment (hearing [pure-tone average > 25 dB] and vision [impaired visual acuity and/or contrast sensitivity]) with long-term depressive symptom (≥8 on the 10-item Center for Epidemiologic Studies-Depression Scale) and anxiety symptom (present on the Hopkins Symptom Checklist) latent classes from group-based trajectory models (rare/never; mild/moderate increasing; chronically high) among 2102 Health, Aging and Body Composition Study participants (mean age:74.0 ± 2.8 years; 51.9 % female) over 10 years. Models were adjusted by demographic characteristics and cardiovascular risk factors, and LPSS. An additional model evaluated the two-way interaction between DSI and LPSS.

RESULTS

DSI was associated with increased risk of being chronically depressed (Risk Ratio, RR = 1.99, 95 % Confidence Interval, CI: 1.25, 3.17), not mild/moderate increasingly depressed (RR = 1.25, 95 % CI: 0.91, 1.71). DSI had increased risk of being mild/moderate increasingly anxious (RR = 1.60, 95 % CI: 1.16, 2.19) and chronically anxious (RR = 1.86, 95 % CI: 1.05, 3.27) groups, as compared to no impairments. Hearing impairment was associated with being mild/moderate increasingly anxious (RR = 1.34, 95 % CI: 1.01, 1.79). No other associations were found for single sensory impairments. LPSS did not modify associations.

LIMITATIONS

Sensory measures were time-fixed, and LPSS, depression and anxiety measures were self-reported.

CONCLUSIONS

Future research is warranted to determine if DSI therapies may lessen long-term chronically high depressive and anxiety symptoms.

Depression, Depression Treatments, and Risk of Incident Dementia: A Prospective Cohort Study of 354,313 Participants

BACKGROUND

The purpose of this study was to investigate the associations between courses of depression, the application of depression treatment, and the risk of incident dementia.

METHODS

In this prospective cohort study, 354,313 participants ages 50-70 years were recruited from the UK Biobank between 2006 and 2010 and were followed until 2020, with a total of 4,212,929 person-years. We initially studied the effect of depression on dementia incidence across 4 subgroups characterized by courses of depressive symptoms. Then, 46,820 participants with a diagnosis of depression were further categorized into treated and untreated groups. We compared the risk of dementia among different depression treatment groups in all participants who were depressed as well as 4 courses of depressive symptoms by performing survival analyses.

RESULTS

Depression was associated with a 51% higher risk of dementia, among which the increasing, chronically high, and chronically low courses were associated with increased dementia risk, while no association was found in the decreasing course. Compared to those who were depressed but untreated, receiving depression treatments corresponded to a hazard ratio of 0.7 (95% CI, 0.62-0.77). Among the 3 detrimental courses, treatments for increasing and chronically low symptoms of depression were associated with a 32% and 28% lower risk of dementia, respectively, while the reduction effect for chronically high symptoms was insignificant.

CONCLUSIONS

The negative association between depression treatment and incident dementia was significant in the increasing and chronically low courses, highlighting the necessity of timely interventional strategies before depression progresses to a chronically severe state.

Identification of a Novel Functional Non-synonymous Single Nucleotide Polymorphism in Frizzled Class Receptor 6 Gene for Involvement in Depressive Symptoms

Although numerous susceptibility loci for depression have been identified in recent years, their biological function and molecular mechanism remain largely unknown. By using an exome-wide association study for depressive symptoms assessed by the Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression (CES-D) score, we discovered a novel missense single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP), rs61753730 (Q152E), located in the fourth exon of the frizzled class receptor 6 gene (FZD6), which is a potential causal variant and is significantly associated with the CES-D score. Computer-based in silico analysis revealed that the protein configuration and stability, as well as the secondary structure of FZD6 differed greatly between the wild-type (WT) and Q152E mutant. We further found that rs61753730 significantly affected the luciferase activity and expression of FZD6 in an allele-specific way. Finally, we generated Fzd6-knockin (Fzd6-KI) mice with rs61753730 mutation using the CRISPR/Cas9 genome editing system and found that these mice presented greater immobility in the forced swimming test, less preference for sucrose in the sucrose preference test, as well as decreased center entries, center time, and distance traveled in the open filed test compared with WT mice after exposed to chronic social defeat stress. These results indicate the involvement of rs61753730 in depression. Taken together, our findings demonstrate that SNP rs61753730 is a novel functional variant and plays an important role in depressive symptoms.

Simultaneous employment and depressive symptom trajectories around retirement age in Chile

Objectives: Over the last decade, an increasing number of empirical studies have examined long-term patterns of depression among adults around retirement age and identified employment status as a crucial determinant. However, most research has examined associations between cross-sectional measures of employment and prospective depression patterns, overlooking the changing nature of employment statuses, particularly close to retirement age. Furthermore, most knowledge in this field comes from studies conducted in developed countries in Western Europe and North America. To address these gaps, this study examined simultaneous trajectories in the employment and depressive symptom domains among two age groups of Chileans before and after the standard retirement age. Method: Using population-representative data and longitudinal statistical methods, we identified different trajectory types among two age groups (one aged 56-65 and another aged 66-75, at baseline) and characterized them according to social and health characteristics.Results: We found that trajectories defined by permanent employment were accompanied by lower depressive symptoms than trajectories indicating either retirement or inactivity. However, trajectories combining employment and the absence of depressive symptoms were primarily followed by individuals with advantaged health and social statuses at the baseline. Conclusion: Public policies aimed at promoting the mental health of older adults through their labor market integration risk forcing individuals who have accumulated social and health disadvantages across the life course to work longer.

Stressful Life Events and Chinese Older People Depression: Moderating Role of Social Support

Aim: This study analyzes the effects of retrospective stressful life events on current depression among Chinese older people and how these effects are moderated by social support. Stressful life events comprise bereavement, divorce, health adversities, accidents, and financial losses due to fraud.

Data and Method: Data were drawn from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) of the 2015 panel, and responses from 9,619 older people aged over 60 years were used. The least-squares regression method was applied to measure the linear effects. Propensity score matching minimized selection bias and enabled the measurement of the net effects of stressful life events. The bias-corrected matching estimator was also used to correct the inexact matching bias from propensity score matching.

Result: Experienced stressful life events and exposure to cumulative stressful life events were found to lead to depression in older people. When older people experienced stressful life events but with more social activities, and higher satisfaction and frequent contact with children, their depressive levels were lower. The results of the propensity score matching showed that stressful life events resulted in depression in older people. Furthermore, individuals with family support were able to moderate stressful life events effects; however, the moderating effects of social activity separately were negligible. In sum, with the moderating role of family support and social activity, the average differences in older people depression caused by stressful life events decreased.

Conclusion: Experiencing stressful life events is detrimental to the psychological health of the older people. Social support, including family support and social activity, has buffered detrimental effects on depression caused by stressful life events.

Interpretations: The study underscores the need to supply effective interventions for the older people who experienced stressful life events. First, society should improve the capability of community care centers to supply mental health services. Second, family members should pay attention to mental condition of older people, and specific support should concord with the needs of Chinese older people. In addition, support suppliers can move from being confined to kinship relationships to close relationships, such as the community partners and neighbors.

Trajectories of depressive symptoms among community-dwelling Korean older adults: findings from the Korean longitudinal study of aging (2006-2016)

BACKGROUND

Depression among older adults is an important public health concern associated with increased risk of suicide and decreased physical, cognitive, and social functioning. This study identified trajectories of depressive symptoms and investigated predictive variables of group-based trajectory modeling among Korean community-dwelling older adults.

METHODS

Participants comprised 2016 community-dwelling Korean adults over 65 years. Data from the years 2006-2016 of the Korean Longitudinal Study of Aging, a nationally representative panel survey that has been conducted every two years since 2006, were used. We employed a group-based trajectory modeling analysis to identify depressive symptom trajectories. Multinomial logistic regression analysis was conducted to identify predictors of each class of depressive symptoms.

RESULTS

Five depressive symptom trajectory groups were identified: Group 1, "None" (28.9%); Group 2, "Slowly worsening" (24.3%); Group 3, "Rapidly worsening" (17.5%); Group 4 "Improving" (12.4%); and Group 5, "Persistently severe" (16.9%). Older adults followed five distinct depressive symptom trajectories over 10 years. Mini-Mental State Examination scores, number of chronic diseases, educational level, and social activity were predictors associated with increasing depressive symptoms.

CONCLUSIONS

This study showed that many older adults living in the community have depressive symptoms. To prevent and treat depression and aid successful mental health aging among older adults, the development of interventions should be tailored to target specific needs for each symptom trajectory. It is necessary to develop community-based interventions and strategies to identify and prevent depressive symptom trajectories among older adults.

Trajectories of depressive symptoms in older adults and associated health outcomes

With the progressive aging of the world's population, prolongation of a healthy lifespan in old age has become a medical research priority. The presence of depressive symptoms in later life is associated with poor health prognosis and increased mortality^1,2. Here we explore distinct trajectories of depressive symptoms in later life and their association with several health-related outcomes in 19,110 older individuals followed for a median of 4.7 years. Using a latent class, mixed-modeling approach we identified four distinct trajectories of depressive symptoms with scoring patterns of consistently low, moderate, emerging and persistently high. Compared to those with minimal depressive symptoms, membership of any other class was associated with specific patterns of baseline sociodemographic and medical factors. Membership of any group with depressive symptoms was associated with a higher likelihood of health events, including physical disability, cancer and major bleeding episodes. Membership of the persistently depressed class was associated with increased mortality, while a diagnosis of dementia was generally limited to the class with initially low and progressively rising symptoms. The course of depressive symptoms in older individuals can vary widely and depend on several factors. The presence of depressive symptoms, including those that do not meet criteria for major depression, can flag a poor prognosis and risk for specific health conditions. Systematic assessment of depressive symptoms may facilitate early identification of at-risk populations.

Depression trajectories among older community dwelling adults: Results from the Irish Longitudinal Study on Ageing (TILDA)

BACKGROUND

This study investigated the role of a large range psychological, attitudinal and health related variables as predictors of depression trajectories amongst older adults over a 4-year time period.

METHODS

Data from three consecutive waves of the TILDA survey of older community dwelling adults aged 50+ in Ireland were combined for analysis. Depression symptom scores were assessed using the Center for Epidemiological Studies- Depression scale (CES-D). Changes in depression scores over three time points were modelled as distinct trajectory classes using group-based trajectory modelling, whilst simultaneously controlling for demographic, attitudinal and health related predictors of these trajectory classes using multinomial regression.

RESULTS

Four distinct depression trajectories were identified as (1) a stable low symptom level group (79%), (2) a moderate but deteriorating symptoms group (7.6%), (3) a moderate but improving group (10.1%) and (4) a vulnerable group with consistently high symptoms (3.1%). Multinomial logistic regression indicated that limiting pain, mobility impairments, perceived stress and loneliness predicted membership of the moderate and higher depressive symptom classes. Retirement status and higher reported levels of worry were associated with a greater likelihood of membership of the moderate symptom classes only.

LIMITATIONS

Use of the CES-D is open to bias due to subjective nature of respondent reporting.

CONCLUSIONS

Results concur with previous studies on the development of depression among older people and highlight the key health related and psychological variables that may inform interventions aimed at mitigating risks of developing depression among older adults.

Using major depression polygenic risk scores to explore the depressive symptom continuum

BACKGROUND

Major depression (MD) is often characterised as a categorical disorder; however, observational studies comparing sub-threshold and clinical depression suggest MD is continuous. Many of these studies do not explore the full continuum and are yet to consider genetics as a risk factor. This study sought to understand if polygenic risk for MD could provide insight into the continuous nature of depression.

METHODS

Factor analysis on symptom-level data from the UK Biobank (N = 148 957) was used to derive continuous depression phenotypes which were tested for association with polygenic risk scores (PRS) for a categorical definition of MD (N = 119 692).

RESULTS

Confirmatory factor analysis showed a five-factor hierarchical model, incorporating 15 of the original 18 items taken from the PHQ-9, GAD-7 and subjective well-being questionnaires, produced good fit to the observed covariance matrix (CFI = 0.992, TLI = 0.99, RMSEA = 0.038, SRMR = 0.031). MD PRS associated with each factor score (standardised β range: 0.057-0.064) and the association remained when the sample was stratified into case- and control-only subsets. The case-only subset had an increased association compared to controls for all factors, shown via a significant interaction between lifetime MD diagnosis and MD PRS (p value range: 2.23 × 10^-3-3.94 × 10^-7).

CONCLUSIONS

An association between MD PRS and a continuous phenotype of depressive symptoms in case- and control-only subsets provides support against a purely categorical phenotype; indicating further insights into MD can be obtained when this within-group variation is considered. The stronger association within cases suggests this variation may be of particular importance.

Adolescent Context and Depressive Symptom Trajectories in a National Sample: Ages 13 to 34

Background

Group-based trajectory analyses of depressive symptoms are often conducted with convenience samples, over limited developmental periods, or with a limited set of predictors in the adolescent context. Examinations of protective and risk factors in robust national samples are needed.

Aim

Using an ecological approach, this study's purpose is to identify key relational and contextual factors associated with trajectory groups of depressive symptoms that span ages 13 to 34.

Method

12,248 respondents in the National Study of Adolescent to Adult Health (Waves 1, 3, and 4) were analyzed with a group-based, cohort sequential design to identify trajectory classes, shapes, and adolescent (i.e., Wave 1) risk and protective factors for depressive symptom trajectories.

Results

A four-class quadratic solution was identified. Close attachment to parents was strongly associated with decreased odds of membership on elevated trajectories. No relationship with a mother or father was associated with better mental health than a poor relationship with that parent. Peer support, teacher support, and educational achievement were highly protective. Romantic relationships, increased number of sexual partners, and prayer were modestly associated with higher depressive symptom burden. Pregnancy was associated with increased burden later in life relative to the teenage years.

Conclusions

Assessing adolescent family, school, peer, and religious contexts indicates several protective and risk factors for depressive symptoms that are persistent over time.

Age and sex trends in depressive symptoms across middle and older adulthood: Comparison of the Canadian Longitudinal Study on Aging to American and European cohorts

BACKGROUND

The literature suggests depressive symptoms differ in a non-linear fashion across adulthood and are more commonly reported in women as compared to men. Whether these trends are observed across countries in population-based cohorts is unclear.

METHODS

Cross-sectional observational study of approximately 138,000 women and men between the ages of 45 and 95 from three population-based cohorts representing Canadian, European, and American populations. Age, gender, educational attainment and annual income were assessed in each cohort. Depressive symptoms were assessed by the Center for Epidemiological Studies Depression Scale in the US and Canadian cohorts, and by the EURO-D in the European cohort.

RESULTS

Across all three cohorts, non-linear age trends and gender differences were observed in the report of depressive symptoms, independent from educational attainment and annual income effects. The non-linear age trends reflected a negative association between depressive symptoms and age during midlife and then a positive association in late life. Females reported greater depressive symptoms than males; however, an interaction between gender and age was also observed in the Canadian and European cohorts. Among Canadians, the gender differences were largest after age 70, whereas among Europeans, gender differences where largest among those approximately aged 60.

LIMITATIONS

Limitations include: 1) the cross-sectional nature of the study, resulting in age differences potentially reflecting cohort effects rather than a developmental process; and 2) the use of different depressive symptoms measures across cohorts.

CONCLUSIONS

Characterization of depressive symptoms over mid and late adulthood in women and men provides insights into potential focal points for intervention and allocation of resources.

Latent class growth modeling of depression and anxiety in older adults: an 8-year follow-up of a population-based study

BACKGROUND

Depression and anxiety are common mental health conditions in the older adult population. Understanding the trajectories of these will help implement treatments and interventions.

AIMS

This study aims to identify depression and anxiety trajectories in older adults, evaluate the interrelationship of these conditions, and recognize trajectory-predicting characteristics.

METHODS

Group-based dual trajectory modeling (GBDTM) was applied to the data of 3983 individuals, aged 65 years or older who participated in the Korean Health Panel Study between 2008 and 2015. Logistic regression was used to identify the association between characteristics and trajectory groups.

RESULTS

Four trajectory groups from GBDTM were identified within both depression and anxiety outcomes. Depression outcome fell into "low-flat (87.0%)", "low-to-middle (8.8%)", "low-to-high (1.3%)" and "high-stable (2.8%)" trajectory groups. Anxiety outcome fell into "low-flat (92.5%)", "low-to-middle (4.7%)", "high-to-low (2.2%)" and "high-curve (0.6%)" trajectory groups. Interrelationships between depression and anxiety were identified. Members of the high-stable depression group were more likely to have "high-to-low" or "high-curved" anxiety trajectories. Female sex, the presence of more than three chronic diseases, and being engaged in income-generating activity were significant predictors for depression and anxiety.

CONCLUSIONS

Dual trajectory analysis of depression and anxiety in older adults shows that when one condition is present, the probability of the other is increased. Sex, having more than three chronic diseases, and not being involved in income-generating activity might increase risks for both depression and anxiety. Health policy decision-makers may use our findings to develop strategies for preventing both depression and anxiety in older adults.

The trajectories of depression symptoms and comorbidity in knee osteoarthritis subjects

BACKGROUND

Previous cross-sectional studies have demonstrated the high prevalence of depression and comorbidity in knee osteoarthritis (KOA), and KOA or its impact on lifestyle was seen as a potential trigger factor of depression and comorbidity. However, the exact onset and progression pattern of depression and comorbidity in KOA was still unknown.

METHODS

Group-based trajectory modeling (GBTM) analysis was conducted in the 2833 subjects selected from the osteoarthritis initiative (OAI) database. Eight-year trajectories were determined and described. Baseline characteristics were investigated in multi-variable regression to detect the risk factors of the unfavored trajectory.

RESULTS

Stable trajectory (70.4%) and worsening trajectory (29.6%) were identified in comorbidity. The risk factors for the worsening trajectory membership were the obesity (OR = 1.47 CI = [1.20, 1.79], P < 0.001), older age (OR = 1.74, CI = [1.41, 2.16], P < 0.001), and smoke (OR = 1.30, CI = [1.08, 1.57], P < 0.01) at baseline. Stable trajectory (52.0%), slow-worsening trajectory (40.5%), and fast-worsening trajectory (7.5%) were identified in depression symptoms. The risk factors for the fast-worsening trajectory membership were female (OR = 1.51 CI = [1.03, 2.20], P < 0.05), lower income (OR = 1.52, CI = [1.01, 2.27], P < 0.05), and smoke (OR = 1.30, CI = [1.08, 1.57], P < 0.01) at baseline.

CONCLUSION

A significant amount of KOA subjects tends to develop depression symptoms and comorbidity. Managing related risk factors, like weight loss or smoking cessation, might have considerable significance in preventing or delaying depression symptoms and comorbidity in KOA. Key Points • The first study investigating the trajectory of comorbidity progression in KOA. • Approximately 7.5% of KOA patients tend to develop depression symptoms quite rapidly, and 30% of KOA patients tend to develop comorbidity • Risk factors of worsening trajectories were identified: obesity, older age, smoking, female, and lower income.

Trajectories of Depressive Symptoms Experienced by Older People: Effects of Time, Hurricane Sandy, and the Great Recession

OBJECTIVES

To examine depressive symptom trajectories as a function of time and exposure to Hurricane Sandy, accounting for the effects of the Great Recession.

METHODS

We analyzed 6 waves of data from a 12-year panel using latent class growth models and multinomial logistic regression.

RESULTS

We identified 4 groups of people experiencing different trajectories of depressive symptoms. The groups differed on baseline characteristics (gender, age, education, income, race), history of diagnosed depression, and initial level of depressive symptoms. The group with the highest levels of depressive symptoms reported greater levels of peri-traumatic stress exposure to Hurricane Sandy.

DISCUSSION

Depressive symptoms increased as a function of the Great Recession, but exposure to Hurricane Sandy was not associated with subsequent increases in depressive symptoms for any of the 4 groups. People who consistently experienced high levels of depressive symptoms over time reported the highest levels of peri-traumatic stress during Hurricane Sandy. Findings highlight the importance of accounting for historical trends when studying the effects of disaster, identify people likely to be at risk during a disaster, and provide novel information about the causal relationship between exposure to disaster and depressive symptoms.

Association of remote traumatic brain injury and military employment with late-life trajectories of depressive symptom severity

BACKGROUND

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) and military service are common lifetime exposures among current older adults that may affect late-life mental health. The objective of the present study was to evaluate the association between TBI with loss of consciousness (LOC) and military employment and late-life depressive symptom severity trajectory.

METHODS

1445 males and 2096 females adults at least 65 years old without dementia or recent TBI were enrolled and followed biennially for up to 10 years in the Adult Changes in Thought study from Kaiser Permanente Washington in Seattle, Washington.

RESULTS

Using group-based trajectory modeling, we documented four distinct depressive symptom severity trajectories that followed a similar course in males and females (Minimal, Decreasing, Increasing, and Persistent). In multinomial regression analyses, TBI with LOC in males was associated with greater likelihood of Persistent versus Minimal depressive symptom severity compared to individuals without TBI (OR = 1.51, 95% CI: 1.01, 2.27; p=0.046). Males reporting past military employment had greater likelihood of Decreasing versus Minimal depressive symptom severity compared to individuals without past military employment (OR = 1.54, 95% CI: 1.03, 2.31; p=0.035). There was no association between TBI or military employment and depression trajectories in females, and no evidence of effect modification by age or between exposures.

LIMITATIONS

Lifetime history of TBI was ascertained retrospectively and may be subject to recall bias. Also, past military employment does not presuppose combat exposure.

CONCLUSIONS

Remote TBI and past military employment are relevant to late-life trajectories of depressive symptom severity in dementia-free older males.

Trajectories of Depression and Their Predictors in a Population-Based Study of Korean Older Adults

The aim of this study was to determine trajectories of depression in older adults and to identify predictors of membership in the different trajectory groups. A total of 3983 individuals aged 65 or older were included. Latent class growth models were used to identify trajectory groups. Of 3983 individuals, 2269 (57%) were females, with a mean baseline age of 72.4 years (SD = 6 years). Four depression trajectories were identified across 8 years of follow-up: "low-flat" (n = 3636; 86.6%), "low-to-middle" (n = 214; 9.2%), "low-to-high" (n = 31; 1.3%), and "high-stable" (n = 102; 2.9%). Compared to the low-flat depression group, high-stable depression group members were more likely to be female, have three or more chronic diseases, and were more likely not to own a home. Our findings will assist health policy decision-makers in planning intervention programs targeting those most likely to experience persistent depression in order to improve psychological well-being in the elderly.

Identifying long-term psychological distress from single measures: evidence from a nationally representative longitudinal survey of the Australian population

BACKGROUND

Single time-point assessments of psychological distress are often used to indicate chronic mental health problems, but the validity of this approach is unclear. The aims of this study were to investigate how a single assessment of distress relates to longer-term assessment and quantify misclassification from using single measures to indicate chronic distress.

METHODS

Data came from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia Survey, a nationally representative study of Australian adults. Psychological distress, measured with the Kessler10 and categorised into low (scores:10- < 12), mild (12- < 16), moderate (16- < 22) and high (22-50), has been assessed in the Survey biennially since wave 7. Among respondents who were aged ≥25 years and participated in all waves in which distress was measured, we describe agreement in distress categories, and using a mixed linear model adjusting for age and sex we estimate change in scores, over a two-, four-, six- and eight-year follow-up period. We applied weights, benchmarked to the Australian population, to all analyses.

RESULTS

Two-years following initial assessment, proportions within identical categories of distress were 66.0% for low, 54.5% for mild, 44.0% for moderate and 50.3% for high, while 94.1% of those with low distress initially had low/mild distress and 81.4% with high distress initially had moderate/high distress. These patterns did not change materially as follow-up time increased. Over the full eight-year period, 77.3% of individuals with high distress initially reported high distress on ≥1 follow-up occasion. Age-and sex- adjusted change in K10 scores over a two-year period was 1.1, 0.5, - 0.7 and - 4.9 for low, mild, moderate and high distress, respectively, and also did not change materially as follow-up time increased.

CONCLUSION

In the absence of repeated measures, single assessments are useful proxies for chronic distress. Our estimates could be used in bias analyses to quantify the magnitude of the bias resulting from use of single assessments to indicate chronic distress.

Giving Support and Suicidal Ideation in Older Adults with Vision-Related Diagnoses

Objectives: Visual impairment in older adults may increase risk for depression and suicide. Research suggests that giving support to others may be associated with lower depressive symptoms in older adults, but much of the research has been in non-clinical populations. Furthermore, there is limited research on giving support and suicide risk.Methods: Using a sample of older adults with vision-related diagnoses (N = 101), this study investigated the association between informal support giving (unpaid support given to family, friends, or neighbors) and formal support giving (volunteering) on depressive symptoms and suicidal ideation. Linear regressions examined the relation between support giving and depression, and logistic regressions examined the relation between support giving and suicidal ideation.Results: Greater informal support giving was related to lower likelihood of reported suicidal ideation (OR: .82, 95% CI: .68-.99, p = .04), whereas volunteer activity was not significantly related to suicidal ideation. Neither volunteer behavior nor informal support giving was related to depressive symptoms.Conclusions: Providing informal support was associated with lower likelihood of endorsing suicidal ideation in older adults with vision impairment.Clinical Implications: Informal support giving may be a target for decreasing suicidal ideation among older adults with health impairments.

Social isolation, cognitive reserve, and cognition in older people with depression and anxiety

Objectives: Poor social connections may be associated with poor cognition in older people who are not experiencing mental health problems, and the trajectory of this association may be moderated by cognitive reserve. However, it is unclear whether this relationship is the same for older people with symptoms of depression and anxiety. This paper aims to explore social relationships and cognitive function in older people with depression and anxiety. Method: Baseline and two-year follow-up data were analysed from the Cognitive Function and Ageing Study-Wales (CFAS-Wales). We compared levels of social isolation, loneliness, social contact, cognitive function, and cognitive reserve at baseline amongst older people with and without depression or anxiety. Linear regression was used to assess the relationship between isolation and cognition at baseline and two-year follow-up in a subgroup of older people meeting pre-defined criteria for depression or anxiety. A moderation analysis tested for the moderating effect of cognitive reserve. Results: Older people with depression or anxiety perceived themselves as more isolated and lonely than those without depression or anxiety, despite having an equivalent level of social contact with friends and family. In people with depression or anxiety, social isolation was associated with poor cognitive function at baseline, but not with cognitive change at two-year follow-up. Cognitive reserve did not moderate this association. Conclusion: Social isolation was associated with poor cognitive function at baseline, but not two-year follow-up. This may be attributed to a reduction in mood-related symptoms at follow-up, linked to improved cognitive function.

Trajectories of major depression in middle-aged and older adults: A population-based study

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to examine depression trajectories and correlates in a nationally representative sample of middle-aged and older adults in the United States.

METHODS

The study sample consisted of 15 661 participants aged over 50 years from the US Health and Retirement Study. Major depression was assessed using the Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI-SF). Depression trajectories were identified using a group-based trajectory modeling enhanced to account for nonrandom attrition. Multinomial logistic regression was conducted to investigate predictors of depression trajectories.

RESULTS

Four depression trajectory groups were identified: "never" (85.8%), "increasing" (6.3%), "decreasing" (3.2%), and "persistently moderate/high" (4.7%). Baseline depressive symptom severity was a strong predictor of depression trajectories. Older age, male sex, and non-Hispanic African American race were associated with a lower risk of the three trajectories with small to high depression burden, whereas chronic disease count was associated with a higher risk of these trajectories. The risk of being on the increasing trajectory increased with mobility difficulties. Difficulties in household activities predicted membership in the persistently moderate/high group.

CONCLUSIONS

A small but nonignorable proportion of middle-aged and older adults have chronic major depression. Initial symptom severity and chronic disease burden are consistent risk factors for unfavorable depression trajectories and potential targets for screening and intervention.

Individualized prediction of depressive disorder in the elderly: A multitask deep learning approach

INTRODUCTION

Depressive disorder is one of the major public health problems among the elderly. An effective depression risk prediction model can provide insights on the disease progression and potentially inform timely targeted interventions. Therefore, research on predicting the onset of depressive disorder for elderly adults considering the sequential progression patterns is critically needed.

OBJECTIVE

This research aims to develop a state-of-the-art deep learning model for the individualized prediction of depressive disorder with a 22-year longitudinal survey data among elderly people in the United States.

METHODS

We obtain the 22-year longitudinal survey data from the University of Michigan Health and Retirement Study, which consists of information on 20,000 elderly people in the United States from 1992 to 2014. To capture temporal and high-order interactions among risk factors, the proposed deep learning model utilizes a recurrent neural network framework with a multitask structure. The C-statistic and the mean absolute error are used to evaluate the prediction accuracy of the proposed model and a set of baseline models.

RESULTS

The experiments with the 22-year longitudinal survey data indicate that (a) machine learning models can provide an accurate prediction of the onset of depressive disorder for elderly individuals; (b) the temporal patterns of risk factors are associated with the onset of depressive disorder; and (c) the proposed multitask deep learning model exhibits superior performance as compared with baseline models.

CONCLUSION

The results demonstrate the capability of deep learning-based prediction models in capturing temporal and high-order interactions among risk factors, which are usually ignored by traditional regression models. This research sheds light on the use of machine learning models to predict the onset of depressive disorder among elderly people. Practically, the proposed methods can be implemented as a decision support system to help clinicians make decisions and inform actionable intervention strategies for elderly people.

Co-occurrence of depressive, anxiety, and somatic symptoms: trajectories from adolescence to midlife using group-based joint trajectory analysis

BACKGROUND

Co-occurrence of mental and somatic symptoms is common, and recent longitudinal studies have identified single trajectories of these symptoms, but it is poorly known whether the symptom trajectories can also co-occur and change across the lifespan. We aimed to examine co-occurring symptoms and their joint trajectories from adolescence to midlife.

METHODS

Longitudinal data were derived from Northern Sweden, where 506 girls and 577 boys aged 16 years participated at baseline in 1981 (99.7% of those initially invited), and have been followed up in four waves until the age of 43. Survey data were collected about depressive, anxiety, and somatic symptoms. Potential joint development of this three-component symptom set was examined with multiple response trajectory analysis, a method that has not been previously used to study co-occurrence of these symptoms.

RESULTS

We identified a five trajectory solution as the best: "very low" (19%), "low" (31%), "high" (22%), "late sharply increasing" (16%) and a "very high increasing" (12%). In the "late sharply increasing" and "very high increasing" groups the scores tended to increase with age, while in the other groups the levels were more stable. Overall, the results indicated that depressive, anxiety, and somatic symptoms co-exist from adolescence to midlife.

CONCLUSIONS

The multiple response trajectory analysis confirmed high stability in the co-occurrence of depressive, anxiety, and somatic symptoms from adolescence to midlife. Clinicians should consider these findings to detect symptoms in their earliest phase in order to prevent the development of co-occurring high levels of symptoms.

Seven-Year Trajectories of Depressive Symptoms and Their Predictors Among Older Americans

Objective: This study examined the trajectories of depressive symptoms and associated factors in older adults using an enhanced group-based trajectory modeling. Method: The study sample consisted of 7,573 adults aged ≥65 years from the National Health and Aging Trends Study (Rounds 1-7). Depressive trajectories were estimated using a group-based trajectory modeling accounting for nonrandom attrition. Results: A four-trajectory model including "persistently low" (77.7%), "increasing" (7.9%), "declining," (5.5%), and "persistently high" (8.9%) was the best fit using methods accounting for nonrandom attrition. In comparison, methods not accounting for attrition estimated that only 3.2% of older adults were on the "persistently high" trajectory. There were significant differences in depressive trajectories by age, race/ethnicity, sex, physical, and cognitive functioning, and social connections. Discussion: Persistently high depressive symptoms affected a larger proportion of older adults than previously estimated. Depression had a more long-term and increasing course in the oldest-old.

Long-term trajectories of depressive symptoms in old age: Relationships with sociodemographic and health-related factors

BACKGROUND

This study aimed at depicting the course of depression symptoms over the old age, with a special interest in a) uncovering its relationships with sociodemographic and health-related factors; b) analysing its predictive role on healthy-ageing outcomes later in life.

METHODS

The sample comprised 8317 older adults (46.02% men) from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing. Robust structural equation modelling was used to identify symptom trajectories and their relationships with time-varying factors. Trajectory class and covariates were used to predict outcomes (quality of life, satisfaction with life, and daily living functioning) in a 2-year follow-up.

RESULTS

Three trajectory classes (so-called, normative, subclinical, chronic symptom trajectories) were identified for both sexes. Rising hearing difficulties and history of psychiatric problems were consistently associated with the chronic symptom trajectory. Lower education level, history of psychiatric problems, and increasing visual difficulties were connected with the subclinical trajectories. Finally, participants with either a subclinical or a chronic symptom trajectory showed worse outcomes than the remaining participants in the follow-up.

CONCLUSION

This study highlighted the presence of varying courses of depression symptoms (each showing some distinctive features from other another) over the old age, pointing to some relevant implications for clinical assessment and treatment prescription.

Course of depressive symptoms and associated factors in people aged 65+ in Europe: A two-year follow-up

BACKGROUND

The epidemiology of depressive disorders presents notable differences among European countries. The objectives of the study are to determine the prevalence, incidence, persistence and remission rates of depressive symptoms and to identify risk factors and differences between four European regions.

METHOD

Prospective cohort design using data from waves 5 and 6 (2013-15) of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe. Sample size included 31,491 non-institutionalized adults aged 65+. Depressive symptoms were assessed using the EURO-D.

RESULTS

The prevalence of depressive symptoms (EURO-D ≥4) was 29.8% and 31.5%in waves 5 and 6, respectively. The risk factors associated depressive symptoms were poorer self-rated health, loneliness, impairment in ADL, female gender and financial difficulties. Incidence was 6.62 (99.9% CI: 6.61-6.63)/100 person-years and the persistence and remission rates were 9.22 and 5.78, respectively. Regarding the differences between European regions, the incidence (4.93 to 7.43) and persistence (5.14 to 11.86) rates followed the same ascending order: Northern, Eastern, Continental and Southern. The remission presented higher rates in the Eastern and Southern (6.60-6.61) countries than in the Northern and Continental (4.45-5.31) ones.

LIMITATIONS

The EURO-D scale is unable to distinguish between clinically relevant depressive symptoms and major depression.

CONCLUSION

The risk factors related to the incidence of depressive symptoms differed across European regions. In countries of eastern and southern Europe the most important predictors were female gender and impairment in ADL. Poorer self-rated health and older age were more relevant in the Northern countries, and chronic diseases were a key factor in the Continental region.

State of the science on mild cognitive impairment (MCI)

Mild cognitive impairment (MCI) represents a transitional stage between healthy aging and dementia, and affects 10-15% of the population over the age of 65. The failure of drug trials in Alzheimer's disease (AD) treatment has shifted researchers' focus toward delaying progression from MCI to dementia, which would reduce the prevalence and costs of dementia profoundly. Diagnostic criteria for MCI increasingly emphasize the need for positive biomarkers to detect preclinical AD. The phenomenology of MCI comprises lower quality-of-life, greater symptoms of depression, and avoidant coping strategies including withdrawal from social engagement. Neurobiological features of MCI are hypoperfusion and hypometabolism in temporoparietal cortices, medial temporal lobe atrophy particularly in rhinal cortices, elevated tau and phosphorylated tau and decreased Aβ42 in cerebrospinal fluid, and brain Aβ42 deposition. Elevated tau can be identified in MCI, particularly in the entorhinal cortex, using positron emission tomography, and analysis of signal complexity using electroencephalography or magnetoencephalography holds promise as a biomarker. Assessment of MCI also relies on cognitive screening and neuropsychological assessment, but there is an urgent need for standardized cognitive tests to capitalize on recent discoveries in cognitive neuroscience that may lead to more sensitive measures of MCI. Cholinesterase inhibitors are frequently prescribed for MCI, despite the lack of evidence for their efficacy. Exercise and diet interventions hold promise for increasing reserve in MCI, and group psychoeducational programs teaching practical memory strategies appear effective. More work is needed to better understand the phenomenology and neurobiology of MCI, and how best to assess it and delay progression to dementia.

Psychosocial and health-related risk factors for depressive symptom trajectories among midlife women over 15 years: Study of Women's Health Across the Nation (SWAN)

BACKGROUND

Psychosocial and health-related risk factors for depressive symptoms are known. It is unclear if these are associated with depressive symptom patterns over time. We identified trajectories of depressive symptoms and their risk factors among midlife women followed over 15 years.

METHODS

Participants were 3300 multiracial/ethnic women enrolled in a multisite longitudinal menopause and aging study, Study of Women's Health Across the Nation. Biological, psychosocial, and depressive symptom data were collected approximately annually. Group-based trajectory modeling identified women with similar longitudinal patterns of depressive symptoms. Trajectory groups were compared on time-invariant and varying characteristics using multivariable multinomial analyses and pairwise comparisons.

RESULTS

Five symptom trajectories were compared (50% very low; 29% low; 5% increasing; 11% decreasing; 5% high). Relative to whites, blacks were less likely to be in the increasing trajectory and more likely to be in the decreasing symptom trajectory and Hispanics were more likely to have a high symptom trajectory than an increasing trajectory. Psychosocial/health factors varied between groups. A rise in sleep problems was associated with higher odds of having an increasing trajectory and a rise in social support was associated with lower odds. Women with low role functioning for 50% or more visits had three times the odds of being in the increasing symptom group.

CONCLUSIONS

Changes in psychosocial and health characteristics were related to changing depressive symptom trajectories. Health care providers need to evaluate women's sleep quality, social support, life events, and role functioning repeatedly during midlife to monitor changes in these and depressive symptoms.

Illness and intelligence are comparatively strong predictors of individual differences in depressive symptoms following middle age

OBJECTIVE

We compared the importance of socio-demographic, lifestyle, health, and multiple cognitive measures for predicting individual differences in depressive symptoms in later adulthood.

METHOD

Data came from 6203 community-dwelling older adults (age 41-93 years at study entry) from the United Kingdom. Predictors (36 in total) were assessed up to four times across a period of approximately 12 years. Depressive symptoms were measured with the Geriatric Depression Scale. Statistical methods included multiple imputation (for missing data), random forest analysis (a machine learning approach), and multivariate regression.

RESULTS

On average, depressive symptoms increased gradually following middle age and appeared to accelerate in later life. Individual differences in depressive symptoms were most strongly associated with differences in combined symptoms of physical illness (positive relation) and fluid intelligence (negative relation). The strength of association between depressive symptoms and fluid intelligence was unaffected by differences in health status within a subsample of chronically depressed individuals.

CONCLUSION

Joint consideration of general health status and fluid intelligence may facilitate prediction of depressive symptoms severity during later life and may also serve to identify sub-populations of community-dwelling elders at risk for chronic depression.

Self-rated health and depressive symptoms in older adults: A growth mixture modeling approach

OBJECTIVE

Self-Rated Health (SRH) and depressive symptoms are important indicators of global quality of life in older adults. Prior research suggests associations between SRH and depressive symptoms. The current study assessed latent groups in levels and trajectories of these two subjective health indicators and how the latent groups relate to each other.

METHODS

Participants from the Australian Longitudinal Study of Aging (N = 2,087, ages 65+) were assessed over six waves of data collection, spanning eight years.

RESULTS

Growth Mixture Models were run for SRH and depressive symptoms, each yielded three latent groups with similar patterns: for both SRH and depressive symptoms two groups differing in their level with worsening status over time, and a third stable, but poorer functioning group. Analysis of the assignment of the latent groups revealed a consistent pattern for the majority, but some people were high in depression and high in SRH and some were low in depression and low in SRH.

CONCLUSIONS

SRH and depressive symptoms yielded both three latent groups whose combination supported the expected assignment for the majority and an unexpected assignment for some people. This may be a result of a protective factor existing for one variable but not the other.

Gender differences in the trajectory classes of depressive symptoms in Korean older adults

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed (1) to identify gender-specific heterogeneous longitudinal patterns of depressive symptoms, (2) to explore the effects of economic status and various health conditions as risk factors in depressive symptom trajectories.

METHOD

Data came from the Korean Longitudinal Study of Aging (2006-2012) focuing on older adults aged 65 and older. Latent class growth analysis was used to identify the depressive symptom trajectory groups. Multinomial logistic regression was used to examine the association between economic and health status changes and the depresison trajectories.

RESULTS

Among older women, three change groups were identified: stable low, stable high, and moderate but slightly increasing groups. Among older men, four groups were found: stable low, moderate but rapidly increasing, high but decreasing, and moderate but slightly increasing groups. Among women, poverty experience and sustained poor health, particularly constantly low cognition, were significantly associated with the stable high group. Among men, deteriorating economic and health status were significant predictors of membership in the most vulnerable subgroup, the moderate but rapidly increasing group.

CONCLUSION

This study demonstrated among older adults, depressive symptoms change heterogeneously by gender. Identification of the most at risk subgroups among older men and women provides important initial empirical information to target clinical programs and policy development.

Educational Mobility Across Generations and Depressive Symptoms Over 10 Years Among US Latinos

Few studies have collected intergenerational data to assess the association between educational mobility across multiple generations and offspring depression. Using data from the Sacramento Area Latino Study on Aging (1998-2008), we assessed the influence of intergenerational education on depressive symptoms over 10 years among 1,786 Latino individuals (mean age = 70.6 years). Educational mobility was classified as stable-low (low parental/low offspring education), upwardly mobile (low parental/high offspring education), stable-high (high parental/high offspring education), or downwardly mobile (high parental/low offspring education). Depressive symptoms were measured with the Center for Epidemiological Studies-Depression Scale (CES-D); higher scores indicated more depressive symptoms. To quantify the association between educational mobility and CES-D scores over follow-up, we used generalized estimating equations to account for repeated CES-D measurements and adjusted for identified confounders. Within individuals, depressive symptoms remained relatively stable over follow-up. Compared with stable-low education, stable-high education and upward mobility were associated with significantly lower CES-D scores (β = -2.75 and -2.18, respectively). Downwardly mobile participants had slightly lower CES-D scores than stable-low participants (β = -0.77). Our results suggest that sustained, low educational attainment across generations may have adverse mental health consequences, and improved educational opportunities in underresourced communities may counteract the adverse influence of low parental education on Latino depression.

Intergenerational relationships and the trajectory of depressive symptoms among older Chinese adults in rural migrant families

OBJECTIVES

This study examined the trajectory patterns of depressive symptoms of older rural Chinese adults in migrant families and the role of intergenerational relationships in predicting trajectory class memberships.

METHOD

Data were derived from the 2001, 2003, 2006, and 2009 waves of a longitudinal survey titled The Well-being of Older People in Anhui Province. The sample featured 486 respondents who had at least one migrant adult children at all four waves. Growth mixture modeling was used to investigate the trajectory classifications of depressive symptoms from 2001 to 2009 and antecedents in differentiating among class memberships.

RESULTS

The findings suggested a two-class model to interpret depressive symptom trajectory patterns: persistently high symptoms and low but increasing symptoms. Older adults who had better intergenerational relationships at baseline were more likely to have low but increasing depressive symptoms after controlling for other covariates.

DISCUSSION

The findings suggest that intergenerational relationships have long-term impacts on depressive symptom trajectory classes. Policy and intervention implications are discussed.