A demographic explanation for the recent rise in European fertility

Cross-sectional average length of life by parity: Country comparisons

This study aims to present an alternative measure of fertility-cross-sectional average length of life by parity (CALP)-which: (1) is a period fertility indicator using all available cohort information; (2) captures the dynamics of parity transitions; and (3) links information on fertility quantum and timing together as part of a single phenomenon. Using data from the Human Fertility Database, we calculate CALP for 12 countries in the Global North. Our results show that women spend the longest time at parity zero on average, and in countries where women spend comparatively longer time at parity zero, they spend fewer years at parities one and two. The analysis is extended by decomposing the differences in CALPs between Sweden and the United States, revealing age- and cohort-specific contributions to population-level differences in parity-specific fertility patterns. The decomposition illustrates how high teenage fertility in the United States dominates the differences between these two countries in the time spent at different parities.

On the Quantum and Tempo of Women First Marriages in China

The total first marriage rate (TFMR) of Chinese women shows a downward trend in fluctuations from 1970 to 2016, but it is affected by the tempo distortion caused by changes in the mean age at first marriage. Thus, we compare the total first marriage rate (TFMR) and tempo-adjusted period proportion ever married (PPEM*) to estimate the extent to which the TFMR is affected by tempo effects. We also decompose the women's TFMR change into its quantum and tempo components from 1970 to 2016 to analyze how much of the changes in TFMR are due to the quantum changes and how much of it is caused by tempo effects. The results show that the tempo effects have had a persistent influence on the period TFMR of Chinese women from 1970 to 2016. The recent decline in the TFMR in Chinese women is mainly due to the first marriage delay, not signaling a retreat from universal marriage.

Social Investment Policies and Childbearing Across 20 Countries: Longitudinal and Micro-Level Analyses

This study analyses the influence of family policies on women's first and second births in 20 countries over the period 1995 to 2007. Welfare states have shifted towards social investment policies, yet family policy-fertility research has not explicitly considered this development. We distinguish between social investment-oriented and passive support that families may receive upon the birth of a child and consider changes in policies over time. These indicators are merged with fertility histories provided by harmonized individual-level data, and we use time-conditioned, fixed effects linear probability models. We find higher social investment-oriented support to be correlated with increased first birth probabilities, in contrast to passive family support. First birth probabilities particularly declined with higher passive family support for women over age 30, which points to a potential increase in childlessness. Social investment-oriented support is positively related to first and second births particularly for lower-educated women and has no relationship to childbirth for highly educated women, countering the Matthew-effect assumptions about social investment policies. Passive support is negatively related to second births for post-secondary educated women and those who are studying. Family policies that support women's employment and labour market attachment are positively linked to family expansion and these policies minimize educational differences in childbearing.

Sedimentary faecal lipids as indicators of Baltic Sea sewage pollution and population growth since 1860 AD

The stress on the environment is increasing as the human population living on it increases. Water eutrophication, a leading cause of impairment of many freshwater and coastal marine ecosystems in the world, is a typical consequence of anthropogenic pressure on the environment. The Baltic Sea represents an excellent example of eutrophication-related massive bottom water deoxygenation since 1950s, when the nutrient inputs derived from agricultural fertilisers and wastewater discharges increased significantly. Faecal lipids (β-stanols) represent a tool to estimate qualitatively anthropogenic sewage pollution in the environment. The present study shows that a ratio to evaluate sewage pollution based on faecal β-stanols preserved in modern sediments reflects the eutrophication status of the Baltic Sea and rivers from its catchment area, as well as the nutrient inputs in the central Baltic Sea since 1860. A second ratio, which allows differentiating between livestock breed and human faecal matter, reflects human population growth in the Baltic Sea Eastern European countries since 1860, and more specifically in St. Petersburg. Sedimentary faecal biomarkers are thus reliable indicators for both population growth and anthropogenic sewage pollution in the Baltic Sea, and may thus be useful to evaluate the past and present status of this environment.

Theory and explanation in demography: The case of low fertility in Europe

In the 50th anniversary edition of Population Studies, John Hobcraft commented that demographers spend too little time trying to explain the phenomena they measure and describe. A quarter of a century on, this paper looks at the state of theory and explanation in contemporary demography. I ask how demographers have approached the task of explanation since Hobcraft's comment, grounding the discussion in the mainstream literature on low fertility in Europe. Using selected examples, I critically review macro- and micro-level approaches to explanation, highlighting some of the philosophical problems that each encounters. I argue that different conceptions of what demography is, and the explanatory language fertility researchers use, lead to differences in explanatory strategies that are rarely explicitly recognized. I also consider how critical theories challenge demographers to think in new ways. Despite the increasing attention paid to theory and explanation, I conclude that more engagement with the philosophy of social sciences is needed before fertility researchers can legitimately claim their studies do as much to explain and understand as to quantify and describe.

Not Just Later, but Fewer: Novel Trends in Cohort Fertility in the Nordic Countries

With historically similar patterns of high and stable cohort fertility and high levels of gender equality, the Nordic countries of Sweden, Finland, Norway, Denmark, and Iceland are seen as forerunners in demographic behavior. Furthermore, Nordic fertility trends have strongly influenced fertility theories. However, the period fertility decline that started around 2010 in many countries with relatively high fertility is particularly pronounced in the Nordic countries, raising the question of whether Nordic cohort fertility will also decline and deviate from its historically stable pattern. Using harmonized data across the Nordic countries, we comprehensively describe this period decline and analyze the extent to which it is attributable to tempo or quantum effects. Two key results stand out. First, the decline is mostly attributable to first births but can be observed across all ages from 15 to the mid-30s. This is a reversal from the previous trend in which fertility rates in the early 30s increased relatively steadily in those countries in the period 1980-2010. Second, tempo explains only part of the decline. Forecasts indicate that the average Nordic cohort fertility will decline from 2 children for the 1970 cohort to around 1.8 children for the late 1980s cohorts. Finland diverges from the other countries in terms of its lower expected cohort fertility (below 1.6), and Denmark and Sweden diverge from Finland, Iceland, and Norway in terms of their slower cohort fertility decline. These findings suggest that the conceptualization of the Nordic model of high and stable fertility may need to be revised.

Evolutionary trends in fertility among Chinese women, 1990-2015

Background

Under the one-child policy of birth control, total fertility rates (TFRs) declined rapidly among women in China. TFRs dropped from 2.29 in 1990 to 1.18 in 2010 and to 1.05 in 2015. However, little is known about the evolution of fertility patterns in China during 1990–2015.

Methods

We used population data from 1990 to 2015 and applied age–period–cohort (APC) models to examine temporal changes and used regression models to analyze the effect of education on fertility across periods and cohorts in China.

Results

Age effects assume an inverted U-shaped curve, which increase and then decline across ages, with a peak value in age groups 20–24 or 25–29. Period effects show a U-shaped curve, which first decline and then increase. Cohort effects show an inverted U-shaped plus V-shaped curve, which first increase, then decline and rebound with different age effects and period effects. The APC effect curves of all-order births are similar to those of first birth, but with different magnitudes.

Conclusions

We revealed the evolutionary trends in fertility patterns among Chinese women from 1990 to 2015. The one-child policy exerted a crowding out effect on education. Even if the well-educated women had an intense fertility intention, the fertility policy offset their desire for more children.

Cross-Sectional Average Length of Life Childless

Increases in the average age at first birth and in the proportion of women remaining childless have extended the total number of years that women spend childless during their reproductive lifetime in several countries. To quantify the number of years that reproductive-age women live without children, we introduce the cross-sectional average length of life childless (CALC). This measure includes all the age-specific first-birth information available for the cohorts present at time t; it is a period measure based on cohort data. Using the Human Fertility Database, CALC is calculated for the year 2015 for all countries with long enough histories of fertility available. Results show that women in the majority of the studied countries spend, on average, more than half of their reproductive lives childless. Furthermore, the difference between CALCs in two countries can be decomposed to give a clear visualization of how each cohort contributes to the difference in the duration of the length of childless life in those populations. Our illustration of the decomposition shows that (1) in recent years, female cohorts in Japan and Spain at increasingly younger ages have been contributing to more years of childless life compared with those in Sweden, (2) the United States continues to represent an exception among the high-income countries with a low expectation for childless life of women, and (3) Hungary experienced a strong period effect of the recent Great Recession. These examples show that CALC and its decomposition can provide insights into first-birth patterns.

The 4 D's of Pellagra and Progress

Nicotinamide homeostasis is a candidate common denominator to explain smooth transitions, whether demographic, epidemiological or economic. This 'NAD world', dependent on hydrogen-based energy, is not widely recognised as it is neither measured nor viewed from a sufficiently multi-genomic or historical perspective. Reviewing the importance of meat and nicotinamide balances during our co-evolution, recent history suggests that populations only modernise and age well with low fertility on a suitably balanced diet. Imbalances on the low meat side lead to an excess of infectious disease, short lives and boom-bust demographics. On the high side, meat has led to an excess of degenerative, allergic and metabolic disease and low fertility. A 'Goldilocks' diet derived from mixed and sustainable farming (preserving the topsoil) allows for high intellectual capital, height and good health with controlled population growth resulting in economic growth and prosperity. Implementing meat equity worldwide could lead to progress for future generations on 'spaceship' earth by establishing control over population quality, thermostat and biodiversity, if it is not already too late.

Economic Recession and Attendances in the Pediatric Emergency Department

The economic recession has been shown to have a negative impact on health services worldwide. The purpose of this study was to examine whether the recent financial crisis in Greece that started in 2009 has affected the attendances in the pediatric emergency department of a University Hospital covering for a large geographical area in Greece. The study was based on a retrospective analysis of the cases presented to the paediatric emergency department and compared the attendances in 2008 (i.e., before the beginning of the economic crisis) with those in 2013 and 2017. Data on demographics and characteristics of emergency department visits, such as timing, reason, and outcome were recorded for each child. There were a total of 35.572 children seeking examination in those three years and data were collected for 5662 (17.36%) of them. Overall, the attendance rate has increased up to 20% without an increase to the hospital admission rates which remained stable throughout the study periods. Between 2008 and 2017, the percentage of febrile children attending the ED increased by 33.8% and of those with respiratory disorders by 63.1%. Our results indicate that the need for pediatric hospital services has changed following the economic crisis which could reflect gaps in the primary care setting and could well also result from financial constraints.

POST-TRANSITIONAL FERTILITY: THE ROLE OF CHILDBEARING POSTPONEMENT IN FUELLING THE SHIFT TO LOW AND UNSTABLE FERTILITY LEVELS

This study discusses fertility trends and variation in countries that completed the transition from high to around-replacement fertility in the 1950s to 1980s, especially in Europe, East Asia and North America, and summarizes the key relevant findings for those countries with a more recent experience of fertility decline towards replacement level. A central finding is that there is no obvious theoretical or empirical threshold around which period fertility tends to stabilize. Period fertility rates usually continue falling once the threshold of replacement fertility is crossed, often to very low levels. While cohort fertility rates frequently stabilize or change gradually, period fertility typically remains unstable. This instability also includes marked upturns and reversals in Total Fertility Rates (TFRs), as experienced in many countries in Europe in the early 2000s. The long-lasting trend towards delayed parenthood is central for understanding diverse, low and unstable post-transitional fertility patterns. In many countries in Europe this shift to a late childbearing pattern has negatively affected the TFR for more than four decades. Many emerging post-transitional countries and regions are likely to experience a similar shift over the next two to three decades, with a depression of their TFRs to very low levels.

AFTER FERTILITY'S NADIR? ETHNIC DIFFERENTIALS IN PARITY-SPECIFIC BEHAVIOURS IN KYRGYZSTAN

After a swift decline in the 1990s, the countries of Central Asia have experienced significant fertility increases over the last 15 years. These fertility upturns have remained off the radar of demographers. This study examines the recent fertility increase in Kyrgyzstan, focusing on fertility development by parity and among the main ethnic groups, in order to go beyond classic fertility indicators and national averages. Using a sample from the 2009 Census micro-dataset, sibling progression ratios were computed using information on the relationships and dates of birth of children under the age of 15. The results allow an analysis of the fertility increase by identifying the contribution of parity and ethnic group. It was found that the fertility increase in Kyrgyzstan has been experienced across the main ethnic groups, but their respective share in the population of the country has resulted in distinct contributions to the increase. Between 2001 and 2009, 82.4% of the fertility increase was due to an increase in the fertility of Kyrgyz women. In comparison, Uzbek and Russian women contributed 10.2% and 7.4%, respectively. By accounting for the parity component and ethnic factor, this study adds important disaggregated information, not only on family-building behaviours, but also on the social dimension, which is of prime importance for a better understanding of the demography of Central Asia. The study highlights important information on family-building behaviours, which are essential for the formulation of appropriate and more effective social policies aimed at sustaining and/or increasing fertility.

Is a Positive Relationship Between Fertility and Economic Development Emerging at the Sub-National Regional Level? Theoretical Considerations and Evidence from Europe

Evidence for nation-states suggests that the long-standing negative relationship between fertility and economic development might turn positive at high levels of development. The robustness of the reversal continues to be debated. We add to this discussion from a novel angle by considering whether such a reversal could also occur at the sub-national level within highly developed countries. Our contributions are both theoretical and empirical. We first discuss important trends which might foster the emergence of a positive fertility-development relationship across regions of highly developed countries. These include shifts in family policies, changes in the spatial organisation of the economic sphere, and selective international and internal migration processes. In order to explore whether we observe tendencies towards a reversal, we investigate data covering 20 European countries subdivided in 256 regions between 1990 and 2012. We document a weakening of the negative relationship between fertility and economic development within many countries, and among some countries the emergence of a positive relationship. These findings do not seem to be driven by postponement effects alone. However, there is substantial variation in the fertility and the economic development levels at which such tendencies towards a reversal are observed.

A new method of identifying target groups for pronatalist policy applied to Australia

A country’s total fertility rate (TFR) depends on many factors. Attributing changes in TFR to changes of policy is difficult, as they could easily be correlated with changes in the unmeasured drivers of TFR. A case in point is Australia where both pronatalist effort and TFR increased in lock step from 2001 to 2008 and then decreased. The global financial crisis or other unobserved confounders might explain both the reducing TFR and pronatalist incentives after 2008. Therefore, it is difficult to estimate causal effects of policy using econometric techniques. The aim of this study is to instead look at the structure of the population to identify which subgroups most influence TFR. Specifically, we build a stochastic model relating TFR to the fertility rates of various subgroups and calculate elasticity of TFR with respect to each rate. For each subgroup, the ratio of its elasticity to its group size is used to evaluate the subgroup’s potential cost effectiveness as a pronatalist target. In addition, we measure the historical stability of group fertility rates, which measures propensity to change. Groups with a high effectiveness ratio and also high propensity to change are natural policy targets. We applied this new method to Australian data on fertility rates broken down by parity, age and marital status. The results show that targeting parity 3+ is more cost-effective than lower parities. This study contributes to the literature on pronatalist policies by investigating the targeting of policies, and generates important implications for formulating cost-effective policies.

Societal Agreement on Gender Role Attitudes and Childlessness in 38 Countries

Many authors argue that levels of childlessness and fertility are a function of changing gender relations, but the mechanisms behind this association remain unclear and mainly untested. This study argues that the societal variation in gender role attitudes explains the link: a great variation in attitudes among potential partners leads to uncertainty and conflicts, which depresses people's propensity for parenthood. This idea is tested with multilevel logistic regression models for 6305 individuals in 38 countries on all continents, using ISSP 2012 data. Measures for the average gender role attitude in the society as well as the dispersion in attitudes are regressed on whether individuals have at least one child or are childless. Attitudes are captured using factor analysis and are opinions towards the gendered division of given tasks and privileges, such as childrearing or the uptake of parental leave. The dispersion in attitudes is the standard deviation of the factor variable in the given country. The analysis gives support to the hypothesis: the greater the variation in gender role attitudes, the higher the chance for individuals to remain childless. The association is significant and holds against various robustness checks.

A cost of living longer: Projections of the effects of prospective mortality improvement on economic support ratios for 14 advanced economies

The economic implications of increasing life expectancy are important concerns for governments in developed countries. The aims of this study were as follows: (i) to forecast mortality for 14 developed countries from 2010 to 2050, using the Poisson Common Factor Model; (ii) to project the effects of the forecast mortality patterns on support ratios; and (iii) to calculate labour force participation increases which could offset these effects. The forecast gains in life expectancy correlate negatively with current fertility. Pre-2050 support ratios are projected to fall most in Japan and east-central and southern Europe, and least in Sweden and Australia. A post-2050 recovery is projected for most east-central and southern European countries. The increases in labour force participation needed to counterbalance the effects of mortality improvement are greatest for Japan, Poland, and the Czech Republic, and least for the USA, Canada, Netherlands, and Sweden. The policy implications are discussed.

The Emergence of Two Distinct Fertility Regimes in Economically Advanced Countries

Beginning in 2000, in economically advanced countries, a remarkable bifurcation in fertility levels has emerged, with one group in the moderate range of period total fertility rates (TFR), about 1.9, and the other at 1.3. The upper branch consists of countries in Northern and Western Europe, Oceania and the United States; the lower branch includes Central, Southern and Eastern Europe, and East and Southeast Asia. A review of the major theories for low fertility countries reveals that none of them would have predicted this specific bifurcation. We argue that those countries with fertility levels close to replacement level have institutional arrangements, and related policies, that make it easier, not easy, for women to combine the worker and mother roles. The institutional details are quite different across countries, suggesting that multiple combinations of institutional arrangements and policies can lead to the same country-level fertility outcome. Canada, the only exception to this bifurcation, illustrates the importance of the different institutional structures in Québec compared to the rest of Canada.

Growth and welfare effects of health care in knowledge-based economies

We study the effects of labor intensive health care within a research and development (R&D) driven growth model with overlapping generations. Health care increases longevity, labor participation, and productivity, while it also diverts labor away from production and R&D. We examine under which conditions expanding health care enhances growth and welfare and establish mild conditions under which the provision of health care beyond the growth-maximizing level is Pareto superior.

A Re-Interpretation of the 'Two-child Norm' in Post-Transitional Demographic Systems: Fertility Intentions in Taiwan

Taiwan currently has one of the lowest fertility rates in the world, leading to projections of rapid population ageing and decline. In common with other territories in Pacific Asia, policies designed to support childbearing have recently been introduced. Some optimism for the future success of these policies has been drawn from the fact that the ‘ideal’ number of children stated in Taiwanese surveys is over two. In this way, Taiwan appears to fit the ‘two-child norm’ model identified for Europe and North America. Furthermore, this feature has led commentators to state that Taiwan is not in a ‘low fertility trap’–where positive feedback mechanisms emanating from the normalisation of small families, slow economic growth and ageing/declining population mean attempts to increase fertility become ever less likely to succeed. Using a recent national representative survey, and arguing that ‘intentions’ are a more reliable guide to understanding the circumstances of family formation, this paper explores fertility intentions in Taiwan with a special focus on women at parity one and parity two. This will form the first full-length examination of fertility intentions in Taiwan published in English and one of the few studies of Pacific Asia that reports a micro-level analysis. We argue that using intentions should provide a better ‘barometer’ of attitudes towards childbearing in Taiwan, and that through micro-level analysis, we can better identify the predictors of intentions that could, in turn, provide useful clues both for projections as well as shaping policy responses. While we found some evidence for a ‘two-child norm’ among childless women, this could be an unrealistic ideal. This is supported by the fact that a majority of women with one child do not intend to have another.

A cohort model of fertility postponement

We introduce a new formal model in which demographic behavior such as fertility is postponed by differing amounts depending only on cohort membership. The cohort-based model shows the effects of cohort shifts on period fertility measures and provides an accompanying tempo adjustment to determine the period fertility that would have occurred without postponement. Cohort-based postponement spans multiple periods and produces "fertility momentum," with implications for future fertility rates. We illustrate several methods for model estimation and apply the model to fertility in several countries. We also compare the fit of period-based and cohort-based shift models to the recent Dutch fertility surface, showing how cohort- and period-based postponement can occur simultaneously.