Improvement in stroke risk prediction: role of C-reactive protein and lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 in the women's health initiative

Individual and combined associations of estimated pulse wave velocity and systemic inflammation response index with risk of stroke in middle-aged and older Chinese adults: a prospective cohort study

Background and aims

Estimated pulse wave velocity (ePWV) and systemic inflammatory response index (SIRI) have been recently investigated as a marker of arterial stiffness and a novel systemic inflammatory indicator. This study aims to examine the independent and combined association of ePWV and SIRI with incident stroke and its subtypes.

Methods

Data of the Dongfeng-Tongji cohort study was analyzed for 9,154 middle-aged and older adults, who were free of cardiovascular disease and cancer and were followed up to document incident stroke. But their association with incident stroke events and its subtypes have not been well studied. Multivariable adjusted Cox regression models were used to determine the independent and combined association of ePWV and SIRI with incident stroke events.

Results

Over a 7.22-year follow-up, the cohort documented 491 stroke cases (387 ischemic stroke and 104 hemorrhagic stroke). The multivariate adjusted model showed that with each one-unit increase in the level of ePWV, the corresponding hazard ratios (HRs) (95% CI) for total stroke, ischemic stroke, and hemorrhagic stroke were 1.53 (95% CI, 1.23-1.90), 1.42 (95% CI, 1.11-1.83), and 1.92 (95% CI, 1.21-3.03), respectively. Similarly, with each one-unit increase in log-transformed levels of SIRI, the corresponding HRs (95% CI) for total stroke, ischemic stroke, and hemorrhagic stroke were 1.23 (95% CI,1.04-1.47), 1.16 (95% CI, 0.96-1.41), and 1.52 (95% CI, 1.05-2.20), respectively. There appeared to be a combined effect of ePWV and SIRI on stroke; Participants with high levels of both ePWV and SIRI had a higher risk of total stroke and hemorrhagic stroke, with multiple adjusted HR of 2.43 (95% CI, 1.09-5.42). Additionally, the incorporation of ePWV in addition to traditional cardiovascular risk factors significantly improved the predictive accuracy for total stroke with C statistic increased from 0.684 (95% CI, 0.661-0.707) to 0.687 (95% CI, 0.664-0.710; x2 = 6.65; p for difference = 0.010), and (suggestively) for ischemic stroke with C statistic increased from 0.684 (95% CI, 0.659-0.71) to 0.691(95% CI, 0.666-0.717; x2 = 3.13, p for difference = 0.077), respectively.

Conclusions

The presence of both high ePWV and SIRI individually, as well as together, was found to be associated with an increased incidence of stroke. The combined stroke risk assessment using these two indicators could potentially improve non-invasive assessment and treatment strategies for high-risk patients, as these indicators are easily accessible in clinical practice.

Clinical Utility of the Serum Level of Lipoprotein-Related Phospholipase A2 in Acute Ischemic Stroke With Cerebral Artery Stenosis

We aimed to study the clinical utility of serum lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 (Lp-PLA2) in acute ischemic stroke (AIS) with cerebral artery stenosis (CAS). We included 200 AIS patients and 90 healthy controls in this study. AIS patients were classified into three subgroups depending on the severity of CAS. They were also classified based on the stability of the carotid plaques. Spearman correlation analysis was performed to determine the correlation relationship between the level of Lp-PLA2 and neurologic injury. Binary logistic regression analysis was performed to determine the independent risk factors for AIS. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was performed to assess the diagnostic value of Lp-PLA2 for AIS and for the degree of CAS. We found that the serum level of Lp-PLA2 in AIS patients was significantly higher than that in the control group. Lp-PLA2 was further identified as an independent risk factor for AIS (p = 0.001, OR = 1.057). In addition, serum Lp-PLA2 level was the highest in AIS patients with severe CAS or occlusion. Lp-PLA2 level was higher in AIS patients with unstable plaques and in AIS patients with moderate to severe neurological injury. Lp-PLA2 level was positively correlated with National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score (r = 0.335, p = 0.001). We found that the optimal cut-off value for Lp-PLA2 level was 123.365 ng/ml, at which the sensitivity and specificity for the diagnosis of ACI were 74.5 and 86.7%, respectively, and the area under ROC curve (AUC) was 0.892. Similarly, the optimal value for Lp-PLA2 level was 136.46 ng/ml, at which the sensitivity and specificity for the diagnosis of the presence of moderate to severe artery stenosis or occlusion were 79.6 and 95.2%, respectively, and the AUC was 0.938. The ROC curve indicated that serum Lp-PLA2 level has an excellent diagnostic value for AIS and severe stenosis. Based on these results we conclude that Lp-PLA2 could be a potential biomarker to complement the current imaging methods in the prediction and diagnosis of AIS. An elevated Lp-PLA2 level is also correlated with carotid plaque instability, severe neurological injury and cerebrovascular stenosis. Future longitudinal studies are needed to determine whether there is a causative relationship between Lp-PLA2 and AIS.

Eosinopenia is a predictive factor for the severity of acute ischemic stroke

Previous data have revealed an association between eosinopenia and mortality of acute ischemic stroke. However, the relationship of eosinopenia with infarct volume, infection rate, and poor outcome of acute ischemic stroke is still unknown. The retrospective study included 421 patients (273 males, 65%; mean age, 68.0 ± 13.0 years) with first acute ischemic stroke who were hospitalized in the Second Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University, China, from January 2017 to February 2018. Laboratory data, neuroimaging results, and modified Rankin Scale scores were collected. Patients were divided into four groups according to their eosinophil percentage level (< 0.4%, 0.4–1.1%, 1.1–2.3%, ≥ 2.3%). Spearman’s correlation analysis showed that the percentage of eosinophils was negatively correlated with infarct volume (r_s = −0.514, P < 0.001). Receiver operating characteristic analysis demonstrated that eosinopenia predicted a large infarct volume more accurately than neutrophilia; the area under curve was 0.906 and 0.876, respectively; a large infarct was considered as that with a diameter larger than 3 cm and involving more than two major arterial blood supply areas. Logistic regression analysis revealed that eosinophil percentage was an independent risk factor for acute ischemic stroke (P = 0.002). Moreover, eosinophil percentage was significantly associated with large infarct volume, high infection rate (pulmonary and urinary tract infections), and poor outcome (modified Rankin Scale score > 3) after adjusting for potential confounding factors (P-trend < 0.001). These findings suggest that eosinopenia has the potential to predict the severity of acute ischemic stroke. This study was approved by the Ethics Committee of the Second Affiliated Hospital of Soochow University, China (approval number: K10) on November 10, 2015.

The elevated lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 activity is associated with the occurrence and recurrence of acute cerebral infarction

There is a strong association between lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 (Lp-PLA2) levels and atherosclerosis-related diseases. The aim of this study was to investigate the role of Lp-PLA2 in the ischemic stroke and further offer clinical evidence that measuring Lp-PLA2 helps predict the risk of stroke occurrence and recurrence. A total of 328 hospitalized patients were recruited, including 179 cases of acute cerebral infarction (ACI) and 149 non-ACI controls. The serum level of Lp-PLA2 in ACI was significantly higher than non-ACI. The serum level of Lp-PLA2 in the recurrence of ACI was significantly higher than the nonrecurrence. The serum levels of Lp-PLA2 in large-artery atherosclerosis subtype were the highest among the subtypes of the Trial of Org 10172 in Acute Stroke Treatment and non-ACI controls. The level of Lp-PLA2 in large-artery atherosclerosis and the cardioembolism group was statistically significantly higher than that of the control cases. There was no statistically significant difference between the small-vessel occlusion group and the control cases. The present study confirmed that the elevated Lp-PLA2 level can be a risk factor for ischemic stroke in the Chinese population. The serum level of Lp-PLA2 may be a predictive factor for the recurrence of ACI.

Serum lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 predicts the formation of carotid artery plaque and its vulnerability in anterior circulation cerebral infarction

OBJECTIVE

Circulation inflammation markers such as high-sensitive C-reactive protein (hsCRP) and lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 (Lp-PLA2) are considered as predictors of cerebral and cardiac vascular diseases. However, the role of hsCRP and Lp-PLA2 in the anterior circulation cerebral infarction (ACI) is to be elaborated.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We included 100 patients with acute anterior circulation cerebral infarction (AaCI group) and 50 non-infarction subjects (control group). Carotid artery was detected by color Doppler ultrasound. Subjects were grouped based on carotid intima-media thickness (IMT) and degree of stability of carotid atherosclerotic plaque. The levels of hsCRP and Lp-PLA2 were measured in corresponding groups and the association was analyzed.

RESULTS

hsCRP and Lp-PLA2 levels were the risk factors for AaCI. With the increment of carotid IMT and degree of plaque instability, the level of hsCRP and Lp-PLA2 showed an elevating tendency. hsCRP and Lp-PLA2 levels were significantly higher in plaque formation group than in IMT normal group (P=0.002 and P=0.001, respectively). hsCRP and Lp-PLA2 levels were significantly higher in vulnerable plaque group than in mixed plaque group and stable plaque group (P=0.003, P<0.001 for hsCRP and P<0.001, P<0.001 for Lp-PLA2). Lp-PLA2 was finally included in the atherosclerotic plaque model (OR=1.019, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.003-1.035, P=0.020) and vulnerable plaque model (OR=1.041, 95%CI: 1.017-1.065, P=0.001) by performing multivariate logistic regression analysis. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) of Lp-PLA2 levels for atherosclerotic plaque was 0.746 (95% CI: 0.628-0.865, P<0.001). The optimal cut-off value for Lp-PLA2 level was 267.5ng/ml, and its sensitivity and specificity for diagnosis of atherosclerotic plaque were 70.8% and 67.1%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The current study demonstrates that hsCRP and Lp-PLA2 are among the risk factors for AaCI. Elevated hsCRP and Lp-PLA2 are associated with carotid plaque formation. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis suggests that elevated Lp-PLA2 is the independent risk factor for carotid plaque and its vulnerability.

Discovery of Metabolite Biomarkers for Acute Ischemic Stroke Progression

Stroke remains a major public health problem worldwide; it causes severe disability and is associated with high mortality rates. However, early diagnosis of stroke is difficult, and no reliable biomarkers are currently established. In this study, mass-spectrometry-based metabolomics was utilized to characterize the metabolic features of the serum of patients with acute ischemic stroke (AIS) to identify novel sensitive biomarkers for diagnosis and progression. First, global metabolic profiling was performed on a training set of 80 human serum samples (40 cases and 40 controls). The metabolic profiling identified significant alterations in a series of 26 metabolites with related metabolic pathways involving amino acid, fatty acid, phospholipid, and choline metabolism. Subsequently, multiple algorithms were run on a test set consisting of 49 serum samples (26 cases and 23 controls) to develop different classifiers for verifying and evaluating potential biomarkers. Finally, a panel of five differential metabolites, including serine, isoleucine, betaine, PC(5:0/5:0), and LysoPE(18:2), exhibited potential to differentiate AIS samples from healthy control samples, with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values of 0.988 and 0.971 in the training and test sets, respectively. These findings provided insights for the development of new diagnostic tests and therapeutic approaches for AIS.

Discovery of New Risk Markers for Ischemic Stroke Using a Novel Targeted Proteomics Chip

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Emerging technologies have made it possible to simultaneously evaluate a large number of circulating proteins as potential new stroke risk markers.

METHODS

We explored associations between 85 cardiovascular proteins, assessed by a proteomics chip, and incident ischemic stroke in 2 independent cohorts of elderly (Prospective Investigation of the Vasculature in Uppsala Seniors [PIVUS]: n=977; 50% women, mean age=70.1 years, 71 fatal/nonfatal ischemic stroke events during 10.0 years; and Uppsala Longitudinal Study in Adult Men [ULSAM]: n=720, mean age=77.5 years, 75 ischemic stroke events during 9.5 years). The proteomics chip uses 2 antibodies for each protein and a polymerase chain reaction step to achieve a high-specific binding and the possibility to measure multiple proteins in parallel, but gives no absolute concentrations.

RESULTS

In PIVUS, 16 proteins were related to incident ischemic stroke using a false discovery rate of 5%. Of these, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (P=0.0032), adrenomedullin (P=0.018), and eosinophil cationic protein (P=0.0071) were replicated in ULSAM after adjustment for established stroke risk factors. In predefined secondary meta-analyses of individual data, interleukin-27 subunit α, growth/differentiation factor 15, urokinase plasminogen activator surface receptor, tumor necrosis factor receptor superfamily member 6, macrophage colony-stimulating factor 1, and matrix metalloproteinase-7 were also potential risk markers for ischemic stroke after adjustment for multiple comparisons (P<0.0006). The addition of N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, adrenomedullin, and eosinophil cationic protein to a model with established risk factors increased the C-statistic from 0.629 to 0.689 (P=0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Our data suggest that large-scale proteomics analysis is a promising way of discovering novel biomarkers that could substantially improve the prediction of ischemic stroke.

Predicting stroke through genetic risk functions: the CHARGE Risk Score Project

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Beyond the Framingham Stroke Risk Score, prediction of future stroke may improve with a genetic risk score (GRS) based on single-nucleotide polymorphisms associated with stroke and its risk factors.

METHODS

The study includes 4 population-based cohorts with 2047 first incident strokes from 22,720 initially stroke-free European origin participants aged ≥55 years, who were followed for up to 20 years. GRSs were constructed with 324 single-nucleotide polymorphisms implicated in stroke and 9 risk factors. The association of the GRS to first incident stroke was tested using Cox regression; the GRS predictive properties were assessed with area under the curve statistics comparing the GRS with age and sex, Framingham Stroke Risk Score models, and reclassification statistics. These analyses were performed per cohort and in a meta-analysis of pooled data. Replication was sought in a case-control study of ischemic stroke.

RESULTS

In the meta-analysis, adding the GRS to the Framingham Stroke Risk Score, age and sex model resulted in a significant improvement in discrimination (all stroke: Δjoint area under the curve=0.016, P=2.3×10(-6); ischemic stroke: Δjoint area under the curve=0.021, P=3.7×10(-7)), although the overall area under the curve remained low. In all the studies, there was a highly significantly improved net reclassification index (P<10(-4)).

CONCLUSIONS

The single-nucleotide polymorphisms associated with stroke and its risk factors result only in a small improvement in prediction of future stroke compared with the classical epidemiological risk factors for stroke.

Clinical utility of lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A₂ for cardiovascular disease prediction in a multiethnic cohort of women

BACKGROUND

Findings regarding the association of lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A₂ (Lp-PLA2) activity and mass with incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) have been inconsistent, and their role in risk prediction is uncertain.

METHODS

A case-cohort sample from the Women's Health Initiative Observational Study (WHI-OS) comprised 1821 CVD cases and a reference subcohort of 1992 women. We used Cox regression models with inverse sampling weights to assess the association of Lp-PLA2 mass and activity with CVD (myocardial infarction, stroke, and CVD mortality).

RESULTS

Subcohort means were 184.3 mmol/min/mL for Lp-PLA2 activity and 499.2 μg/L for Lp-PLA2 mass, with 99% having mass above 200 μg/L, the clinically recommended cut point. Both activity and mass were positively associated with incident CVD in age- and race/ethnicity-adjusted analyses. Following adjustment according to CVD risk factors, the association with activity became null (hazard ratio = 1.02 for top vs bottom quartile, 95% CI = 0.79-1.33, P for trend = 0.65), but the association with mass remained (hazard ratio = 1.84, 95% CI = 1.45-2.34, P for trend < 0.0001). In contrast to blood pressure, HDL, and hsCRP, reclassification statistics for Lp-PLA2 mass did not suggest improvement for overall CVD after full adjustment.

CONCLUSIONS

In the WHI-OS Lp-PLA2 mass, but not activity, was independently associated with CVD. However, model fit did not significantly improve with Lp-PLA2 mass, and assay calibration remains a clinical concern.