Overview of the epidemiology of equine influenza in the Australian outbreak

Horse populations are severely underestimated in a region at risk of Hendra virus spillover

OBJECTIVE

To identify the size and distribution of the horse population in the Northern Rivers Region of NSW, including changes from 2007 to 2021, to better understand populations at risk of Hendra virus transmission.

METHODS

Census data from the 2007 Equine Influenza (EI) outbreak were compared with data collected annually by New South Wales Local Land Services (LLS) (2011-2021), and with field observations via road line transects (2021).

RESULTS

The horse populations reported to LLS in 2011 (3000 horses; 0.77 horses/km2) was 145% larger than that reported during the EI outbreak in 2007 (1225 horses; 0.32 horses/km2). This was inconsistent with the 6% increase in horses recorded from 2011 to 2020 within the longitudinal LLS dataset. Linear modelling suggested the true horse population of this region in 2007 was at least double that reported at the time. Distance sampling in 2021 estimated the region's population at 10,185 horses (3.89 per km2; 95% CI = 4854-21,372). Field sampling and modelling identified higher horse densities in rural cropland, with the percentage of conservation land, modified grazing, and rural residential land identified as the best predictors of horse densities.

CONCLUSIONS

Data from the 2007 EI outbreak no longer correlates to the current horse population in size or distribution and was likely not a true representation at the time. Current LLS data also likely underestimates horse populations. Ongoing efforts to further quantify and map horse populations in Australia are important for estimating and managing the risk of equine zoonoses.

Understanding the divergent evolution and epidemiology of H3N8 influenza viruses in dogs and horses

Cross-species virus transmission events can lead to dire public health emergencies in the form of epidemics and pandemics. One example in animals is the emergence of the H3N8 equine influenza virus (EIV), first isolated in 1963 in Miami, FL, USA, after emerging among horses in South America. In the early 21st century, the American lineage of EIV diverged into two 'Florida' clades that persist today, while an EIV transferred to dogs around 1999 and gave rise to the H3N8 canine influenza virus (CIV), first reported in 2004. Here, we compare CIV in dogs and EIV in horses to reveal their host-specific evolution, to determine the sources and connections between significant outbreaks, and to gain insight into the factors controlling their different evolutionary fates. H3N8 CIV only circulated in North America, was geographically restricted after the first few years, and went extinct in 2016. Of the two EIV Florida clades, clade 1 circulates widely and shows frequent transfers between the USA and South America, Europe and elsewhere, while clade 2 was globally distributed early after it emerged, but since about 2018 has only been detected in Central Asia. Any potential zoonotic threat of these viruses to humans can only be determined with an understanding of its natural history and evolution. Our comparative analysis of these three viral lineages reveals distinct patterns and rates of sequence variation yet with similar overall evolution between clades, suggesting epidemiological intervention strategies for possible eradication of H3N8 EIV.

Hendra Virus Spillover is a Bimodal System Driven by Climatic Factors

Understanding environmental factors driving spatiotemporal patterns of disease can improve risk mitigation strategies. Hendra virus (HeV), discovered in Australia in 1994, spills over from bats (Pteropus sp.) to horses and thence to humans. Below latitude - 22°, almost all spillover events to horses occur during winter, and above this latitude spillover is aseasonal. We generated a statistical model of environmental drivers of HeV spillover per month. The model reproduced the spatiotemporal pattern of spillover risk between 1994 and 2015. The model was generated with an ensemble of methods for presence-absence data (boosted regression trees, random forests and logistic regression). Presences were the locations of horse cases, and absences per spatial unit (2.7 × 2.7 km pixels without spillover) were sampled with the horse census of Queensland and New South Wales. The most influential factors indicate that spillover is associated with both cold-dry and wet conditions. Bimodal responses to several variables suggest spillover involves two systems: one above and one below a latitudinal area close to - 22°. Northern spillovers are associated with cold-dry and wet conditions, and southern with cold-dry conditions. Biologically, these patterns could be driven by immune or behavioural changes in response to food shortage in bats and horse husbandry. Future research should look for differences in these traits between seasons in the two latitudinal regions. Based on the predicted risk patterns by latitude, we recommend enhanced preventive management for horses from March to November below latitude 22° south.

Climate Change Could Increase the Geographic Extent of Hendra Virus Spillover Risk

Disease risk mapping is important for predicting and mitigating impacts of bat-borne viruses, including Hendra virus (Paramyxoviridae:Henipavirus), that can spillover to domestic animals and thence to humans. We produced two models to estimate areas at potential risk of HeV spillover explained by the climatic suitability for its flying fox reservoir hosts, Pteropus alecto and P. conspicillatus. We included additional climatic variables that might affect spillover risk through other biological processes (such as bat or horse behaviour, plant phenology and bat foraging habitat). Models were fit with a Poisson point process model and a log-Gaussian Cox process. In response to climate change, risk expanded southwards due to an expansion of P. alecto suitable habitat, which increased the number of horses at risk by 175-260% (110,000-165,000). In the northern limits of the current distribution, spillover risk was highly uncertain because of model extrapolation to novel climatic conditions. The extent of areas at risk of spillover from P. conspicillatus was predicted shrink. Due to a likely expansion of P. alecto into these areas, it could replace P. conspicillatus as the main HeV reservoir. We recommend: (1) HeV monitoring in bats, (2) enhancing HeV prevention in horses in areas predicted to be at risk, (3) investigate and develop mitigation strategies for areas that could experience reservoir host replacements.

Equine Vaccines: How, When and Why? Report of the Vaccinology Session, French Equine Veterinarians Association, 2016, Reims

To date, vaccination is one of the most efficient methods of prevention against equine infectious diseases. The vaccinology session, which was organised during the annual meeting of the French Equine Veterinarians Association (AVEF) at Reims (France) in 2016, aimed to approach three subjects of importance for the equine industry. Vaccination against three major equine diseases were used as examples: equine influenza (equine influenza virus), rhinopneumonitis (equine herpes virus 1/4), and tetanus (Clostridium tetani neuro-toxin). (1) Emergency vaccination: while it has been very successful to reduce the impact of equine influenza epizooties and it is also recommended for tetanus in case of surgery and accident, the benefit of emergency vaccination against equine herpes virus 1/4 remains arguable; (2) Compatibility of equine vaccines from different brands: despite being a frequent concerns for equine veterinarians, little information is available about the compatibility of equine vaccines from different commercial origins. The consequence of mixing different equine vaccines targeting the same disease is believed to be limited but scientific evidences are sparse; and, (3) Laps vaccination and vaccine shortage: they could have serious consequences in terms of protection and their impact should be evaluated on a case by case basis, taking into account the risk of contact with the pathogen and the effect on herd immunity.

Descriptive and network analyses of the equine contact network at an equestrian show in Ontario, Canada and implications for disease spread

Background

Identifying the contact structure within a population of horses attending a competition is an important element towards understanding the potential for the spread of equine pathogens as the horses subsequently travel from location to location. However, there is limited information in Ontario, Canada to quantify contact patterns of horses. The objective of this study was to describe the network of potential contacts associated with an equestrian show to determine how this network structure may influence potential disease transmission.

Results

This was a descriptive study of horses attending an equestrian show in southern Ontario, Canada on July 6 and 7, 2014. Horse show participants completed a questionnaire about their horse, travel patterns, and infection control practices. Questionnaire responses were received from horse owners of 79.7% (55/69) of the horses attending the show. Owners reported that horses attending the show were vaccinated for diseases such as rabies, equine influenza, and equine herpesvirus. Owners demonstrated high compliance with most infection control practices by reporting reduced opportunities for direct and indirect contact while away from home. The two-mode undirected network consisted of 820 nodes (41 locations and 779 horses). Eight percent of nodes in the network represented horses attending the show, 87% of nodes represented horses not attending the show, but boarded at individual home facilities, and 5% represented locations. The median degree of a horse in the network was 33 (range: 1–105).

Conclusions

Developing disease management strategies without the explicit consideration of horses boarded at individual home facilities would underestimate the connectivity of horses in the population. The results of this study provides information that can be used by equestrian show organizers to configure event management in such a way that can limit the extent of potential disease spread.

The Use of a Recombinant Canarypox-Based Equine Influenza Vaccine during the 2007 Australian Outbreak: A Systematic Review and Summary

In 2007, Australia experienced the most extensive equine influenza outbreak observed in recent years. Extraordinary measures were rapidly implemented in order to control and prevent the spread of this highly contagious disease. The control strategy involved stringent movement restriction and disease surveillance, seconded by emergency post-outbreak vaccination strategies. Sixteen months after the first case and 12 months following the last reported case, Australia regained its equine influenza-free OIE status. This systematic review reports and summarises information relating to the implementation of emergency vaccination during the 2007 Australian equine influenza outbreak, including the choice of vaccine and implementation strategies.

Duration of equine influenza virus shedding and infectivity in immunised horses after experimental infection with EIV A/eq2/Richmond/1/07

Equine influenza (EI) is a major respiratory disease of horses. Recent outbreaks of EI have demonstrated the ease with which EI virus (EIV) can be transmitted internationally. This study aimed to improve our understanding of EIV shedding after infection of vaccinated horses, which would inform possible changes to current quarantine requirements. Our objectives were to compare commonly used diagnostic tests and to evaluate the relative merits of nasal and nasopharyngeal swabs for detection of EIV in vaccinated and unvaccinated ponies following EIV infection and to use these data to inform optimal quarantine procedures for the safe international movement of horses. Five ponies vaccinated against EI were infected experimentally with A/eq/Richmond/1/07 (Florida clade 2), 11 weeks after V2. Nasal and nasopharyngeal swabs were taken daily for 14 days and every 2 days for another 2 weeks. The 5 vaccinates were introduced sequentially for 48h to 3 groups of 2 naïve sentinel ponies each on days 2, 4 and 6 post-challenge respectively. Clinical signs of disease and EIV shedding were monitored for 14 days after co-mingling. EIV was detected by 3 different methods of detection (EIV nucleoprotein ELISA, EIV nucleoprotein qRT-PCR and isolation/titration in embryonated hens' eggs). Directigen™ EZ Flu A+B tests were also performed on samples from the vaccinated ponies for 6 days after infection. Results show that nasopharyngeal swabs were superior to nasal swabs, with increased frequency and amount of virus detected. The average mean duration of shedding was 6-8 days in naïve animals. All 3 sentinel groups were infected successfully with EIV after commingling with vaccinates, indicating up to 6 days of transmission. EI protection induced by vaccination is a dynamic process, naturally fluctuating and dependent on the time since last immunisation, with periods of high immunity (peak of immunity shortly after boost immunisation) and periods of susceptibility to EIV infection. This result indicates that vaccinated horses may actively transmit EIV if the immunity gap (a usual period of susceptibility between V2 and V3) is not adequately closed by immunisation. In infected sentinels EIV was detectable up to 12 days after commingling. Results also suggest that tests such as qRT-PCR may be a suitable substitute for time spent in pre-export quarantine.

Significant features of the epidemiology of equine influenza in New South Wales, Australia, 2007

Equine influenza (EI) was first diagnosed in the Australian horse population on 24 August 2007 at Centennial Park Equestrian Centre (CPEC) in Sydney, New South Wales (NSW), Australia. By then, the virus had already spread to many properties in NSW and southern Queensland. The outbreak in NSW affected approximately 6000 premises populated by approximately 47,000 horses. Analyses undertaken by the epidemiology section, a distinct unit within the planning section of the State Disease Control Headquarters, included the attack risk on affected properties, the level of under-reporting of affected properties and a risk assessment of the movement of horses out of the Special Restricted Area. We describe the epidemiological features and the lessons learned from the outbreak in NSW.