Conservation-reliant species and the future of conservation

Naturalness and principle pluralism in conservation

The concept of naturalness in biodiversity conservation remains polysemic, hampering decision-making. Although some conservationists claim ecosystem naturalness should be primarily determined by composition (integrity), others argue it should be determined by the extent of freedom from anthropogenic influence (autonomy). Problems arise when deciding how to treat affected ecosystems. Although the integrity school promotes benchmark-based active restoration, the autonomy school advocates a hands-off policy, making these 2 approaches contradictory. Moreover, expected global changes have promoted advocacy for ecosystem resilience, further complicating the debate. We argue that autonomy, integrity, and resilience are all morally valid. The conflict between them is contained by recognizing that full naturalness is an unattainable goal; restoration and rewilding processes are not an act of curation, but a contrary-to-duty obligation; principle pluralism can accommodate integrity, resilience, and autonomy as pro tanto principles in a case-specific approach; and naturalness, as an overarching value, gives unity to the plurality of principles.

The ties that bind the sagebrush biome: integrating genetic connectivity into range-wide conservation of greater sage-grouse

Conserving genetic connectivity is fundamental to species persistence, yet rarely is made actionable into spatial planning for imperilled species. Climate change and habitat degradation have added urgency to embrace connectivity into networks of protected areas. Our two-step process integrates a network model with a functional connectivity model, to identify population centres important to maintaining genetic connectivity then to delineate those pathways most likely to facilitate connectivity thereamong for the greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus), a species of conservation concern ranging across eleven western US states and into two Canadian provinces. This replicable process yielded spatial action maps, able to be prioritized by importance to maintaining range-wide genetic connectivity. We used these maps to investigate the efficacy of 3.2 million ha designated as priority areas for conservation (PACs) to encompass functional connectivity. We discovered that PACs encompassed 41.1% of cumulative functional connectivity-twice the amount of connectivity as random-and disproportionately encompassed the highest-connectivity landscapes. Comparing spatial action maps to impedances to connectivity such as cultivation and woodland expansion allows both planning for future management and tracking outcomes from past efforts.

Revealing microhabitat requirements of an endangered specialist lizard with LiDAR

A central principle of threatened species management is the requirement for detailed understanding of species habitat requirements. Difficult terrain or cryptic behaviour can, however, make the study of habitat or microhabitat requirements difficult, calling for innovative data collection techniques. We used high-resolution terrestrial LiDAR imaging to develop three-dimensional models of log piles, quantifying the structural characteristics linked with occupancy of an endangered cryptic reptile, the western spiny-tailed skink (Egernia stokesii badia). Inhabited log piles were generally taller with smaller entrance hollows and a wider main log, had more high-hanging branches, fewer low-hanging branches, more mid- and understorey cover, and lower maximum canopy height. Significant characteristics linked with occupancy were longer log piles, an average of three logs, less canopy cover, and the presence of overhanging vegetation, likely relating to colony segregation, thermoregulatory requirements, and foraging opportunities. In addition to optimising translocation site selection, understanding microhabitat specificity of E. s. badia will help inform a range of management objectives, such as targeted monitoring and invasive predator control. There are also diverse opportunities for the application of this technology to a wide variety of future ecological studies and wildlife management initiatives pertaining to a range of cryptic, understudied taxa.

Rangeland Land-Sharing, Livestock Grazing’s Role in the Conservation of Imperiled Species

Land sharing, conserving biodiversity on productive lands, is globally promoted. Much of the land highest in California’s biodiversity is used for livestock production, providing an opportunity to understand land sharing and species conservation. A review of United States Fish and Wildlife Service listing documents for 282 threatened and endangered species in California reveals a complex and varied relationship between grazing and conservation. According to these documents, 51% or 143 of the federally listed animal and plant species are found in habitats with grazing. While livestock grazing is a stated threat to 73% (104) of the species sharing habitat with livestock, 59% (85) of the species are said to be positively influenced, with considerable overlap between species both threatened and benefitting from grazing. Grazing is credited with benefiting flowering plants, mammals, insects, reptiles, amphibians, fish, crustaceans, and bird species by managing the state’s novel vegetation and providing and maintaining habitat structure and ecosystem functions. Benefits are noted for species across all of California’s terrestrial habitats, except alpine, and for some aquatic habitats, including riparian, wetlands, and temporary pools. Managed grazing can combat anthropomorphic threats, such as invasive species and nitrogen deposition, supporting conservation-reliant species as part of land sharing.

The conservation research–practice gap: a case study of a threatened bird

Conservation research is less often applied in practice than is desirable for the optimization of conservation outcomes. We evaluated this conservation research–practice gap for a threatened passerine, Dupont's lark Chersophilus duponti. We reviewed the literature and classified the conservation interventions proposed by scientists as regulation and legislation, monitoring and research, or management. We sent a questionnaire to managers responsible for species conservation, to gather information about the reasons for implementing, or not, each conservation intervention. We found 16 conservation interventions proposed in the literature, of which 13 (81.2%) had been applied by managers at least once. We found a disparity between the frequency of scientific recommendations and the actions implemented by managers: some measures with high scientific consensus were rarely adopted, whereas approaches less frequently proposed by scientists were more often implemented by managers. Regulatory and monitoring/research interventions were applied more often than management interventions, probably because of legal obligations. Management interventions were less frequently implemented, mainly because of time and budget limitations. There was a negative correlation between the number of interventions implemented and the population trend of the species in each region, which suggests that conservation interventions were more commonly implemented when the species was facing local extinction. Our results indicate a mismatch between science and practice for the conservation of Dupont's lark, the reasons for which seem to be diverse and include factors such as financial and time limitations, legal obstacles and managers' perception of extinction risk. An iterative dialogue needs to be initiated between scientists and managers to evaluate the efficacy of interventions implemented, and facilitate evidence-based conservation.

Benchmark for the ESA: Having a Backbone Is Good for Recovery

To forestall the current rate of global extinction, we need to identify strategies that successfully recover species. In the last decade, the recovery record for the United States Endangered Species Act (ESA) has improved. Our aim was to review federal delisting documents for recovered species and quantify patterns in taxonomy, history of threats, policy, funding and actions that are associated with species recovery. In comparison to species still listed, the average recovered species was a vertebrate, had been listed longer under the ESA, was exposed to a lower number of threats at the time of listing, and received relatively higher levels of funding. Based on our review, we suggest the following strategies to improve species recovery: provide more time for ESA protection, allocate more funding for recovery, maintain environmental regulations that facilitate recovery, establish more private landowner agreements, and increase the area of protected lands.

Seasonal habitat suitability models for a threatened species: the Gunnison sage-grouse

Abstract ContextThe Gunnison sage-grouse (Centrocercus minimus) has experienced range-wide declines and has been listed as Threatened by the USA Fish and Wildlife Service to receive protections under the USA Endangered Species Act. A draft Recovery Plan was recently completed. No seasonal habitat models have been developed for the small isolated populations. AimsTo develop a habitat suitability model that was collaboratively developed between modellers and conservation practitioners to predict the probability of use by Gunnison sage-grouse during the breeding and summer seasons in designated occupied critical habitat, and extrapolate to adjacent designated unoccupied critical habitat. MethodsWe captured, marked and tracked Gunnison sage-grouse in nine different studies spanning 25 years. We used a suite of biotic, abiotic and vegetation local-level and population-scale covariates in a use-available resource selection function to develop models that predict the probability of use by Gunnison sage-grouse. Key resultsWe used 9140 Gunnison sage-grouse locations from 406 individual birds to develop nine resource selection models for occupied habitat and extrapolated model predictions to adjacent unoccupied critical habitat in five small isolated Gunnison sage-grouse populations. A majority of our models validated well. ConclusionsWe report the first two-season resource use-based habitat suitability models for five of six small isolated Gunnison sage-grouse populations. Because of the unique habitat use by Gunnison sage-grouse in each population, we recommend that resource managers strategically target management actions in individual populations and avoid ‘one-size-fits-all’ habitat management prescriptions. ImplicationsOur models will assist managers in the identification of seasonal habitats within populations to target management actions for Gunnison sage-grouse recovery.

The dilemma of pest suppression in the conservation of endangered species

In the conservation of endangered species, suppression of a population of one native species to benefit another poses challenges. Examples include predator control and nest parasite reduction. Less obvious is the control of blood-feeding arthropods. We conducted a case study of the effect of native black flies (Simulium spp.) on reintroduced Whooping Cranes (Grus americana). Our intent was to provide a science-driven approach for determining the effects of blood-feeding arthropods on endangered vertebrates and identifying optimal management actions for managers faced with competing objectives. A multiyear experiment demonstrated that black flies reduce nest success in cranes by driving incubating birds off their nests. We used a decision-analytic approach to develop creative management alternatives and evaluate trade-offs among competing objectives. We identified 4 management objectives: establish a self-sustaining crane population, improve crane well-being, maintain native black flies as functional components of the ecosystem, and minimize costs. We next identified potential management alternatives: do nothing, suppress black flies, force crane renesting to occur after the activity period of black flies, relocate releases of cranes, suppress black flies and relocate releases, or force crane renesting and relocate releases. We then developed predictions on constructed scales of 0 (worst-performing alternative) to 1 (best-performing alternative) to indicate how alternative actions performed in terms of management objectives. The optimal action depended on the relative importance of each objective to a decision maker. Only relocating releases was a dominated alternative, indicating that it was not optimal regardless of the relative importance of objectives. A rational decision maker could choose any other management alternative we considered. Recognizing that decisions involve trade-offs that must be weighed by decision makers is crucial to identifying alternatives that best balance multiple management objectives. Given uncertainty about the population dynamics of blood-feeding arthropods, an adaptive management approach could offer substantial benefits.

Biological and Sociopolitical Sources of Uncertainty in Population Viability Analysis for Endangered Species Recovery Planning

Although population viability analysis (PVA) can be an important tool for strengthening endangered species recovery efforts, the extent to which such analyses remain embedded in the social process of recovery planning is often unrecognized. We analyzed two recovery plans for the Mexican wolf that were developed using similar data and methods but arrived at contrasting conclusions as to appropriate recovery goals or criteria. We found that approximately half of the contrast arose from uncertainty regarding biological data, with the remainder divided between policy-related decisions and mixed biological-policy factors. Contrasts arose from both differences in input parameter values and how parameter uncertainty informed the level of precaution embodied in resulting criteria. Policy-related uncertainty originated from contrasts in thresholds for acceptable risk and disagreement as to how to define endangered species recovery. Rather than turning to PVA to produce politically acceptable definitions of recovery that appear science-based, agencies should clarify the nexus between science and policy elements in their decision processes. The limitations we identify in endangered-species policy and how PVAs are conducted as part of recovery planning must be addressed if PVAs are to fulfill their potential to increase the odds of successful conservation outcomes.

Integrated Collection Assessment and Planning (ICAP) workshop: Helping zoos move toward the One Plan Approach

Most threatened species do not yet have an integrated conservation plan to guide zoos and aquariums in species selection and conservation action. To address this issue, the Conservation Planning Specialist Group (CPSG), in collaboration with regional zoo and aquarium associations, has developed a new process-an Integrated Collection Assessment and Planning (ICAP) workshop. This brings in situ and ex situ communities together to apply the decision process of the IUCN SSC Guidelines on the Use of Ex Situ Management for Species Conservation to the task of regional or global collection planning. The first ICAP workshop was held in 2016 for 43 canids and hyaenids in collaboration with the relevant regional zoo and aquarium associations and IUCN Specialist Groups. The ICAP process provides a comprehensive assessment that will enhance species conservation by providing guidance to zoos and aquariums on conservation priorities for collection planning, conservation education messaging, in situ field support, and integration of in situ and ex situ efforts, as well as by promoting collaboration among regional zoo and aquarium associations, field-based conservationists, and IUCN SSC Specialist Groups.

Quantifying species recovery and conservation success to develop an IUCN Green List of Species

Stopping declines in biodiversity is critically important, but it is only a first step toward achieving more ambitious conservation goals. The absence of an objective and practical definition of species recovery that is applicable across taxonomic groups leads to inconsistent targets in recovery plans and frustrates reporting and maximization of conservation impact. We devised a framework for comprehensively assessing species recovery and conservation success. We propose a definition of a fully recovered species that emphasizes viability, ecological functionality, and representation; and use counterfactual approaches to quantify degree of recovery. This allowed us to calculate a set of 4 conservation metrics that demonstrate impacts of conservation efforts to date (conservation legacy); identify dependence of a species on conservation actions (conservation dependence); quantify expected gains resulting from conservation action in the medium term (conservation gain); and specify requirements to achieve maximum plausible recovery over the long term (recovery potential). These metrics can incentivize the establishment and achievement of ambitious conservation targets. We illustrate their use by applying the framework to a vertebrate, an invertebrate, and a woody and an herbaceous plant. Our approach is a preliminary framework for an International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Green List of Species, which was mandated by a resolution of IUCN members in 2012. Although there are several challenges in applying our proposed framework to a wide range of species, we believe its further development, implementation, and integration with the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species will help catalyze a positive and ambitious vision for conservation that will drive sustained conservation action.

Minimizing opportunity costs to aquatic connectivity restoration while controlling an invasive species

Controlling invasive species is critical for conservation but can have unintended consequences for native species and divert resources away from other efforts. This dilemma occurs on a grand scale in the North American Great Lakes, where dams and culverts block tributary access to habitat of desirable fish species and are a lynchpin of long-standing efforts to limit ecological damage inflicted by the invasive, parasitic sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus). Habitat restoration and sea-lamprey control create conflicting goals for managing aging infrastructure. We used optimization to minimize opportunity costs of habitat gains for 37 desirable migratory fishes that arose from restricting sea lamprey access (0-25% increase) when selecting barriers for removal under a limited budget (US$1-105 million). Imposing limits on sea lamprey habitat reduced gains in tributary access for desirable species by 15-50% relative to an unconstrained scenario. Additional investment to offset the effect of limiting sea-lamprey access resulted in high opportunity costs for 30 of 37 species (e.g., an additional US$20-80 million for lake sturgeon [Acipenser fulvescens]) and often required ≥5% increase in sea-lamprey access to identify barrier-removal solutions adhering to the budget and limiting access. Narrowly distributed species exhibited the highest opportunity costs but benefited more at less cost when small increases in sea-lamprey access were allowed. Our results illustrate the value of optimization in limiting opportunity costs when balancing invasion control against restoration benefits for diverse desirable species. Such trade-off analyses are essential to the restoration of connectivity within fragmented rivers without unleashing invaders.

Reproductive ecology of interior least tern and piping plover in relation to Platte River hydrology and sandbar dynamics

In a recent study, Farnsworth et al. (2017) used distributions of nest initiation dates drawn mostly from human‐created, off‐channel habitats and a model of emergent sandbar habitat to evaluate the hypothesis that least terns (Sternula antillarum) and piping plovers (Charadrius melodus) are physiologically adapted to initiate nests concurrent with the cessation of spring river flow rises on two sections of the Platte River, Nebraska. The study by Farnsworth et al. (2017) has several shortcomings which bring into question the authors’ principal assertion that interior least tern and piping plovers are not adapted to occupying and nesting on river sandbars on the Platte River system. We identify these shortcomings and provide information, which, we suggest, would change their conclusions if incorporated.

Linked Article: https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.4097

Movers and Stayers: Novel Assemblages in Changing Environments

Increased attention to species movement in response to environmental change highlights the need to consider changes in species distributions and altered biological assemblages. Such changes are well known from paleoecological studies, but have accelerated with ongoing pervasive human influence. In addition to species that move, some species will stay put, leading to an array of novel interactions. Species show a variety of responses that can allow movement or persistence. Conservation and restoration actions have traditionally focused on maintaining or returning species in particular places, but increasingly also include interventions that facilitate movement. Approaches are required that incorporate the fluidity of biotic assemblages into the goals set and interventions deployed.

Human-mediated evolution in a threatened species? Juvenile life-history changes in Snake River salmon

Evaluations of human impacts on Earth's ecosystems often ignore evolutionary changes in response to altered selective regimes. Freshwater habitats for Snake River fall Chinook salmon (SRFCS), a threatened species in the US, have been dramatically changed by hydropower development and other watershed modifications. Associated biological changes include a shift in juvenile life history: Historically essentially 100% of juveniles migrated to sea as subyearlings, but a substantial fraction have migrated as yearlings in recent years. In contemplating future management actions for this species should major Snake River dams ever be removed (as many have proposed), it will be important to understand whether evolution is at least partially responsible for this life-history change. We hypothesized that if this trait is genetically based, parents who migrated to sea as subyearlings should produce faster-growing offspring that would be more likely to reach a size threshold to migrate to sea in their first year. We tested this with phenotypic data for over 2,600 juvenile SRFCS that were genetically matched to parents of hatchery and natural origin. Three lines of evidence supported our hypothesis: (i) the animal model estimated substantial heritability for juvenile growth rate for three consecutive cohorts; (ii) linear modeling showed an association between juvenile life history of parents and offspring growth rate; and (iii) faster-growing juveniles migrated at greater speeds, as expected if they were more likely to be heading to sea. Surprisingly, we also found that parents reared a full year in a hatchery produced the fastest growing offspring of all-apparently an example of cross-generational plasticity associated with artificial propagation. We suggest that SRFCS is an example of a potentially large class of species that can be considered to be "anthro-evolutionary"-signifying those whose evolutionary trajectories have been profoundly shaped by altered selective regimes in human-dominated landscapes.

Species-free species distribution models describe macroecological properties of protected area networks

Among the greatest challenges facing the conservation of plants and animal species in protected areas are threats from a rapidly changing climate. An altered climate creates both challenges and opportunities for improving the management of protected areas in networks. Increasingly, quantitative tools like species distribution modeling are used to assess the performance of protected areas and predict potential responses to changing climates for groups of species, within a predictive framework. At larger geographic domains and scales, protected area network units have spatial geoclimatic properties that can be described in the gap analysis typically used to measure or aggregate the geographic distributions of species (stacked species distribution models, or S-SDM). We extend the use of species distribution modeling techniques in order to model the climate envelope (or “footprint”) of individual protected areas within a network of protected areas distributed across the 48 conterminous United States and managed by the US National Park System. In our approach we treat each protected area as the geographic range of a hypothetical endemic species, then use MaxEnt and 5 uncorrelated BioClim variables to model the geographic distribution of the climatic envelope associated with each protected area unit (modeling the geographic area of park units as the range of a species). We describe the individual and aggregated climate envelopes predicted by a large network of 163 protected areas and briefly illustrate how macroecological measures of geodiversity can be derived from our analysis of the landscape ecological context of protected areas. To estimate trajectories of change in the temporal distribution of climatic features within a protected area network, we projected the climate envelopes of protected areas in current conditions onto a dataset of predicted future climatic conditions. Our results suggest that the climate envelopes of some parks may be locally unique or have narrow geographic distributions, and are thus prone to future shifts away from the climatic conditions in these parks in current climates. In other cases, some parks are broadly similar to large geographic regions surrounding the park or have climatic envelopes that may persist into near-term climate change. Larger parks predict larger climatic envelopes, in current conditions, but on average the predicted area of climate envelopes are smaller in our single future conditions scenario. Individual units in a protected area network may vary in the potential for climate adaptation, and adaptive management strategies for the network should account for the landscape contexts of the geodiversity or climate diversity within individual units. Conservation strategies, including maintaining connectivity, assessing the feasibility of assisted migration and other landscape restoration or enhancements can be optimized using analysis methods to assess the spatial properties of protected area networks in biogeographic and macroecological contexts.

Genetic rescue, the greater prairie chicken and the problem of conservation reliance in the Anthropocene

A central question in conservation is how best to manage biodiversity, despite human domination of global processes (= Anthropocene). Common responses (i.e. translocations, genetic rescue) forestall potential extirpations, yet have an uncertain duration. A textbook example is the greater prairie chicken (GRPC: Tympanuchus cupido pinnatus), where translocations (1992-1998) seemingly rescued genetically depauperate Illinois populations. We re-evaluated this situation after two decades by genotyping 21 microsatellite loci from 1831 shed feathers across six leks in two counties over 4 years (2010-2013). Low migration rates (less than 1%) established each county as demographically independent, but with declining-population estimates (4 year average N = 79). Leks were genetically similar and significantly bottlenecked, with low effective population sizes (average N_e = 13.1; 4 year N_e/N = 0.166). Genetic structure was defined by 12 significantly different family groups, with relatedness r = 0.31 > half-sib r = 0.25. Average heterozygosity, indicating short-term survival, did not differ among contemporary, pre- and post-translocated populations, whereas allelic diversity did. Our results, the natural history of GRPC (i.e. few leks, male dominance hierarchies) and its controlled immigration suggest demographic expansion rather than genetic rescue. Legal protection under the endangered species act (ESA) may enhance recovery, but could exacerbate political-economic concerns on how best to manage 'conservation-reliant' species, for which GRPC is now an exemplar.

The importance of seasonal resource selection when managing a threatened species: targeting conservation actions within critical habitat designations for the Gunnison sage-grouse

Context The ability to identify priority habitat is critical for species of conservation concern. The designation of critical habitat under the US Endangered Species Act 1973 identifies areas occupied by the species that are important for conservation and may need special management or protection. However, relatively few species’ critical habitats designations incorporate habitat suitability models or seasonal specificity, even when that information exists. Gunnison sage-grouse (GUSG) have declined substantially from their historical range and were listed as threatened by the US Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS) in November 2014. GUSG are distributed into eight isolated populations in Colorado and Utah, and one population, the Gunnison Basin (GB), has been the focus of much research. Aims To provide season-specific resource selection models to improve targeted conservation actions within the designated critical habitat in the GB. Methods We utilised radio-telemetry data from GUSG captured and monitored from 2004 to 2010. We were able to estimate resource selection models for the breeding (1 April–15 July) and summer (16 July–30 September) seasons in the GB using vegetation, topographical and anthropogenic variables. We compared the seasonal models with the existing critical habitat to investigate whether the more specific seasonal models helped identify priority habitat for GUSG. Key results The predictive surface for the breeding model indicated higher use of large areas of sagebrush, whereas the predictive surface for the summer model predicted use of more diverse habitats. The breeding and summer models (combined) matched the current critical habitat designation 68.5% of the time. We found that although the overall habitat was similar between the critical habitat designation and our combined models, the pattern and configuration of the habitat were very different. Conclusions These models highlight areas with favourable environmental variables and spatial juxtaposition to establish priority habitat within the critical habitat designated by USFWS. More seasonally specific resource selection models will assist in identifying specific areas within the critical habitat designation to concentrate habitat improvements, conservation and restoration within the GB. Implications This information can be used to provide insight into the patterns of seasonal habitat selection and can identify priority GUSG habitat to incorporate into critical habitat designation for targeted management actions.

The Precision Problem in Conservation and Restoration

Within the varied contexts of environmental policy, conservation of imperilled species populations, and restoration of damaged habitats, an emphasis on idealized optimal conditions has led to increasingly specific targets for management. Overly-precise conservation targets can reduce habitat variability at multiple scales, with unintended consequences for future ecological resilience. We describe this dilemma in the context of endangered species management, stream restoration, and climate-change adaptation. Inappropriate application of conservation targets can be expensive, with marginal conservation benefit. Reduced habitat variability can limit options for managers trying to balance competing objectives with limited resources. Conservation policies should embrace habitat variability, expand decision-space appropriately, and support adaptation to local circumstances to increase ecological resilience in a rapidly changing world.

Describing a developing hybrid zone between red wolves and coyotes in eastern North Carolina, USA

When hybridizing species come into contact, understanding the processes that regulate their interactions can help predict the future outcome of the system. This is especially relevant in conservation situations where human activities can influence hybridization dynamics. We investigated a developing hybrid zone between red wolves and coyotes in North Carolina, USA to elucidate patterns of hybridization in a system heavily managed for preservation of the red wolf genome. Using noninvasive genetic sampling of scat, we surveyed a 2880 km² region adjacent to the Red Wolf Experimental Population Area (RWEPA). We combined microsatellite genotypes collected from this survey with those from companion studies conducted both within and outside the RWEPA to describe the gradient of red wolf ancestry. A total of 311 individuals were genotyped at 17 loci and red wolf ancestry decreased along an east–west gradient across the RWEPA. No red wolves were found outside the RWEPA, yet half of individuals found within this area were coyotes. Hybrids composed only 4% of individuals within this landscape despite co‐occurrence of the two species throughout the RWEPA. The low proportion of hybrids suggests that a combination of active management and natural isolating mechanisms may be limiting intermixing within this hybrid system.

Metapopulation viability of an endangered shorebird depends on dispersal and human-created habitats: piping plovers (Charadrius melodus) and prairie rivers

BACKGROUND

Many species are distributed as metapopulations in dynamic landscapes, where habitats change through space and time. Individuals locate habitat through dispersal, and the relationship between a species and landscape characteristics can have profound effects on population persistence. Despite the importance of connectivity in dynamic environments, few empirical studies have examined temporal variability in dispersal or its effect on metapopulation dynamics. In response to this knowledge gap, we studied the dispersal, demography, and viability of a metapopulation of an endangered, disturbance-dependent shorebird. We examined three subpopulations of piping plovers (Charadrius melodus) on the lower Platte and Missouri rivers from 2008-2013. High flow events from an upstream dam on the Missouri River in 2010 and 2011 allowed us to assess the effect of total habitat loss and the subsequent creation of new habitat associated with a large disturbance at one 'natural' study location. The other two sites within the metapopulation, which were maintained by anthropogenic activities (e.g., mining, development, habitat restoration), were largely unaffected by this disturbance, resulting in a controlled natural experiment.

RESULTS

High flow events were associated with increased emigration, decreased immigration, and decreased survival in the subpopulation that experienced high flows. Following the high flow event, immigration into that subpopulation increased. Dispersal rates among subpopulations were negatively correlated with distance. The metapopulation had a low probability of extinction over 100 years (0 %) under the current disturbance interval and associated dispersal and survival rates. However, persistence depended on relatively stable, human-created habitats, not the dynamic, natural habitat (47.7 % extinction probability for this subpopulation).

CONCLUSIONS

We found that functional connectivity, as measured by the rate of dispersal among subpopulations, increased as a result of the high flow event in our study metapopulation. Plovers also increased reproductive output following this event. Although the study metapopulation had a low overall probability of extinction, metapopulation persistence depended on anthropogenically created habitats that provided a small but stable source of nesting habitat and dispersers through time. However, all subpopulations remained small, even if persistent, making them individually vulnerable to extinction through stochastic events. Given the highly dynamic nature of habitat availability in this system, maintaining several subpopulations within the metapopulation and stable sources of habitat will be critical, and this species will likely remain conservation-reliant.

Decline of the Endangered Morro Bay Kangaroo Rat in California

The Morro Bay kangaroo rat Dipodomys heermanni morroensis occurs in the vicinity of Morro Bay (specifically in and near Los Osos) in western San Luis Obispo County in coastal central California. It was listed as endangered pursuant to the U.S. Endangered Species Conservation Act in 1970 and subsequently the U.S. Endangered Species Act in 1973. Field research from the late 1950s to the mid-1980s has documented a rapid population decline. Despite many efforts, researchers have not captured the Morro Bay kangaroo rat since 1986, and the last captive individual died in 1993. We review the biology and conservation status of the Morro Bay kangaroo rat, including taxonomy and genetics, soil type and burrows, history of decline, primary causes of decline, breeding in the wild and in captivity, habitat restoration, and threats. In particular, there are two primary causes of decline. First, development (urban, agricultural, and industrial) has resulted in direct loss of habitat. Second, in the absence of fire, the early seral stages of coastal dune scrub (optimal habitat) have matured to later successional stages of vegetation, which are denser and with substantially fewer annual food plants, and which negatively impact the locomotion of kangaroo rats and change the diversity of the small mammal community with a likely increase in competition. In 2016 only pockets of habitat remain, with optimal habitat comprising an estimated 1% of the historical geographic range. Although researchers have not demonstrated predation by domestic cats, it is likely a major threat and we suspect it has contributed to the decline based upon a review of the literature. In 2011 we observed potential signs of the Morro Bay kangaroo rat at two historical areas, which suggests it may be persisting at extremely low densities in a few isolated colonies. In addition, we could not obtain permission to survey on four private properties with potential habitat. In consideration of the vast loss and fragmentation of its habitat, along with the continuing and pervasive threats, the Morro Bay kangaroo rat is clearly conservation-reliant. We believe that without urgent human intervention, the Morro Bay kangaroo rat will soon become extinct if it is not already.