Body mass index trajectory across childhood and subsequent risk of elevated blood pressure

Sex-specific associations between body mass index trajectories and risk of hypertension

BACKGROUND

Although it is well established that obesity is a risk factor for hypertension, the effect of distinct long-term patterns of body mass index (BMI) on blood pressure (BP) in later life is poorly understood.

METHODS

Based on the China Health and Nutrition Survey, we analyzed 2920 participants aged 3-17 years with initial normal BP at baseline (1991-2011), who were followed up for the development of hypertension (1993-2015). The group-based trajectory model was applied to identify BMI trajectories, and Cox regression was used to assess their associations with hypertension risk. Stratified analyses were conducted to explore differences across subgroups.

RESULTS

During an average follow-up time of 11.20 (7.69) years for males and 7.20 (5.21) years for females, 339 males and 212 females were identified with hypertension, respectively. Three BMI trajectories were identified: low-increasing (60.58% of males and 73.03% of females), moderate-increasing (33.08% of males and 24.22% of females), and high-increasing (6.34% of males and 2.76% of females). Our study found a significant positive association between a higher BMI trajectory and hypertension risk in males (all P for trend < 0.05). Specifically, males in the high-increasing BMI group had a higher risk of hypertension compared with those in the low-increasing group (HR = 1.76, 95% CI: 1.04-2.97). Stratified analyses revealed stronger associations among smokers, drinkers, and inactive individuals.

CONCLUSION

Our findings suggest that maintaining a normal BMI and healthy lifestyle from childhood may lower subsequent risk of hypertension.

Genetic associations of childhood and adult BMI on chronic heart failure and ischemic stroke: A Mendelian randomization

Background

Obesity has been confirmed to be associated with cardiovascular disease, but previous studies have focused on adults, and whether childhood obesity is associated with cardiovascular disease in adulthood needs further research.

Objective

This Mendelian randomization (MR) study aimed to investigate the associations of childhood and adult body mass index (BMI) with the risk of chronic heart failure (CHF) and ischemic stroke (IS).

Methods

Independent genetic instruments, demonstrating a strong association with exposure at the genome-wide significance level (P < 5 × 10-8), were carefully selected from comprehensive genome-wide association studies conducted within relevant European populations. Summary-level data for CHF and IS were obtained from the EBI database and large consortia of European population. To enhance robustness and generalizability, the analysis was replicated in an East Asian population cohort.

Results

According to a MR analysis based on a European population, a higher adult BMI was associated with an increased risk of CHF [(odds ratio (OR) 1.594, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.483-1.713)] and IS (OR 1.163, 95%CI 1.096-1.233). In addition, higher childhood BMI level was associated with a higher risk of CHF (OR 1.323, 95%CI 1.153-1.524).and the effect was mainly driven by adult BMI. Replication analyses of adult BMI in East Asian populations showed consistent findings that adult BMI was associated with the risk of CHF (OR 2.167, 95%CI 1.786-2.630) and IS (OR 1.259, 95%CI 1.128-1.406).

Conclusions

Our study findings provide compelling evidence for the significant influence of adult BMI on the occurrence of CHF and IS. Furthermore, our observations suggest that the positive association between childhood BMI and the risk of CHF in adulthood can largely be attributed to individuals who maintain obesity into later life.

Effect of body mass index trajectory on hypertension among children and adolescents aged 5-18 years: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Hypertension has become increasingly prevalent in Chinese children and adolescents in recent decades, which affects growth and development of children, leads to cognitive decline and multiple target organ damage. Here, we assessed the impact of different body mass index (BMI) trajectories on the occurrence of hypertension in children and adolescents using a cohort study in Northeast China.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Children and adolescents aged 5-18 years was extracted for physical examination in Fuxin City, Liaoning Province, China during the 2009-2015 period. A latent category growth mixed model (LCGMM) was used to classify BMI changes and analyze the effect of different BMI trajectories on the risk of occurrence of hypertension in these participants within 5 years.

RESULTS

All participates were divided into five BMI trajectories by LCGMM method: slow increasing group (n = 2616, 30.8%), overweight and obesity (OW/OB) group (n = 1141, 13.4%), normal decreasing group (n = 232, 2.7%), stable normal group (n = 4383, 51.6%), and fast-increasing group (n = 120, 1.4%). Compared with the stable normal group, the slow increasing group [adjusted odds ratio (AOR): 1.610, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.304-1.989], the OW/OB group (AOR: 3.172, 95% CI: 2.500-4.023) and the fast-increasing group (AOR: 2.708, 95% CI: 1.445-5.074) all increased the risk of developing hypertension in children and adolescents.

CONCLUSION

The potential of developing hypertension varies among groups of children aged 5-18 with different BMI trajectories. Children and adolescents in the normal BMI range (the slow growth group) still need to be aware of the change in BMI trajectory to stop or slow down the progression of BP abnormalities.

Multiple Trajectories of Body Mass Index and Waist Circumference and Their Associations with Hypertension and Blood Pressure in Chinese Adults from 1991 to 2018: A Prospective Study

Body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) have been suggested to be involved in the etiology of hypertension. The present study aimed to determine multiple trajectories of BMI and WC, then examined their associations with the risks of hypertension and high blood pressure in Chinese adults. The study used China Health and Nutrition Survey data from 1991 to 2018. The sample included 9651 adults aged 18 years or older. We used group-based multi-trajectory modeling to identify trajectories. We estimated the relationships between the trajectories and the risks of hypertension with a Cox proportional hazards regression model and the trajectories' relationships with blood pressure levels with a generalized linear model. We identified four trajectories for each gender: low stable BMI, low increasing WC (group 1); medium increasing BMI, medium increasing WC (group 2); increasing BMI to overweight, increasing WC to central obesity (group 3), increasing BMI to obesity, increasing central obesity WC (group 4). Group 1 was the reference group. Among males in groups 2, 3, and 4, the adjusted hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) of hypertension were 1.30 (1.15-1.48), 1.86 (1.58-2.18), and 2.60 (2.02-3.34), respectively. The systolic blood pressure (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) of males in group 4 increased by 11.90 mm of mercury (mmHg) and 7.75 mmHg, respectively. Among females in groups 2, 3, and 4, the HR and 95% CI of hypertension were 1.35 (1.18-1.54), 1.92 (1.62-2.26), and 2.37 (1.85-3.03), respectively. The SBP and DBP of females in group 4 increased by 8.84 mmHg and 5.79 mmHg, respectively. These data indicated that increases in BMI and WC were associated with unfavorable hypertension risks. Attention to both BMI and WC trajectories has the potential to prevent hypertension.

Association of body mass index trajectory and hypertension risk: A systematic review of cohort studies and network meta-analysis of 89,094 participants

Introduction

Body mass index (BMI) trajectories, such as non-linear time trends and nonlinear changes in BMI with age, can provide information on the underlying temporal health patterns. The relationship between BMI trajectories and the risk of hypertension remains controversial.

Methods

PubMed, Embase, Cochrane, Scopus, and Web of Science databases were searched from their inception to January 31, 2022. We categorized BMI trajectories as "Stable high," "table normal," "Stable low," "Fluctuated (sharp increase)," and "Fluctuated (elevated-decrease)." The main outcome was the relative risk for the prevalence of hypertension in the different BMI trajectories. Potential sources of heterogeneity were examined using meta-regression and subgroup analysis. A publication bias test and Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) approach were also used.

Results

The 18 cohort studies included 89,094 participants. Compared with the "Stable normal" trajectory, "Stable high," "Fluctuated (sharp increase)," and "Fluctuated (elevated-decrease)" trajectories were associated with an increased relative risk of hypertension: [RR (95% CI)]: 1.80 (1.29 2.50), p < 0.001; 1.53 (1.27 1.83), p < 0.001; 1.30 (1.24 1.37), p = 0.001, respectively. The "Stable low" trajectory was associated with a reduced risk of hypertension [0.83 (0.79 0.83), p < 0.001]. The "Stable high" trajectory (surface under the cumulative ranking curve = 88.1%) had the highest probability of developing hypertension in the population. The certainty of the evidence for direct comparisons of the incidence of hypertension between various BMI trajectories was generally very low.

Conclusion

Our findings suggested that "Stable high," "Fluctuated (sharp increase)," and "Fluctuated (elevated-decrease)" trajectories were associated with an increased relative risk of hypertension, with the "Stable high" trajectory most likely associated with hypertension.

Systematic review registration

[https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?RecordID=308575], identifier [CRD42022308575].

Pediatric body mass index trajectories and the risk of hypertension among adolescents in China: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

The impact of pediatric body mass index (BMI) trajectories on the risk of adolescent hypertension (HTN) determined by three separate visits remains unclear. This longitudinal study aims to identify potential pediatric sex-specific BMI trajectories and to assess their associations with HTN and HTN subtypes.

METHODS

Based on the Health Promotion Program for Children and Adolescents (HPPCA) in Suzhou, China, a total of 24,426 participants who had initial normal blood pressure (BP) and had at least four BMI measurements during 2012-2020 were included. HTN was defined as simultaneously having three separate visits of elevated BP in 2020. Latent class growth models were used to explore sex-specific BMI trajectories, whose associations with HTN and HTN subtypes were further examined by logistic regression.

RESULTS

The incidence of HTN determined through three separate visits was 3.34%. Four trajectories were identified for both sexes: low BMI increasing, medium BMI increasing, high BMI increasing, and highest BMI increasing. Compared to the medium BMI increasing group, the odds ratio (95% confidential interval) for developing adolescent HTN of the low, high, and highest BMI increasing groups among boys were 0.54 (0.39, 0.75), 1.90 (1.44, 2.51), and 2.89 (1.90, 4.39), respectively; and the corresponding values for girls were 0.66 (0.48, 0.90), 2.30 (1.72, 3.09), and 4.71 (3.06, 7.26). Similar gradually elevated associations between different trajectories with isolated systolic hypertension, systolic and diastolic hypertension were observed.

CONCLUSION

Current results emphasized the adverse effects of stable high BMI on HTN and the benefits of maintaining normal weight throughout childhood.

Waist Circumference Trajectories in Relation to Blood Pressure and the Risk of Hypertension in Chinese Adults

Central obesity is associated with a higher risk of hypertension. This study aimed to analyze waist circumference (WC) trajectories and discover their association with blood pressure and the risk of hypertension. The data were obtained from the China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS), with a sample of 11,885 adults aged 18 or older. Trajectory groups of WC were identified by group-based trajectory modeling. Three trajectory groups were identified in males: "normal-stable group" (group 1), "normal-increase to central obesity group" (group 2), and "central obesity-slight decrease group" (group 3). There were also three identified in females: "normal-increase to central obesity group" (group 1), "normal-stable group" (group 2), and "central obesity-increase group" (group 3). For males, compared with group 1, systolic blood pressure (SBP) and diastolic blood pressure (DBP) increased by 2.47 mmHg and 2.13 mmHg, respectively, in group 2, and by 3.07 mmHg and 2.54 mmHg, respectively, in group 3. The adjusted hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence interval (95% CI) of hypertension in groups 2 and 3 were 1.16 (1.06-1.28) and 1.29 (1.10-1.50), respectively. For females, compared with group 2, SBP and DBP increased by 1.69 mmHg and 1.68 mmHg, respectively, in group 1, and by 4.96 mmHg and 2.77 mmHg, respectively, in group 3. The HR and 95% CI of hypertension in groups 2 and 3 were 1.21 (1.07-1.36) and 1.52(1.17-1.99), respectively. We found that the WC trajectory was a risk factor for hypertension and elevated blood pressure independent of basal WC. Increased risk of hypertension was nonlinearly associated with annual WC increase.

Effects of smoking intensity trajectory, cumulative smoking exposure, and the number of years since quitting on the subsequent risk of hypertension

The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of smoking intensity trajectory, cumulative smoking exposure, and the number of years since quitting on the subsequent risk of hypertension in Chinese adults. The study included 2783 men and 3416 women who participated in at least three waves of the China Health and Nutrition Survey. Information regarding smoking behavior was obtained using a standardized questionnaire. The trajectory of smoking intensity was determined using a group‐based trajectory model. The number of pack‐years of smoking and the number of years since quitting were calculated. The incidence of hypertension was 18.2% and 15.5% in men and women, respectively, during a median follow‐up duration of 4 years. Male participants with trajectories denoting light and moderate smoking had increased risks of hypertension compared with those with trajectories denoting non‐smoking (P_s < .05). Compared with male participants with 0 pack‐years, those with < 5.5 pack‐years had a higher risk of hypertension (P < .05). Male participants with ≥5.5 pack‐years and weight gain had a higher risk of hypertension compared with those with 0 pack‐years and weight loss (P < .05). However, smoking was not related to an increased risk of hypertension in women. Additionally, similar to never smoking, having quit within 2–5 years or ≥5 years was not associated with the incidence of hypertension in men. The results of this study showed that light/moderate smoking or high cumulative smoking exposure accompanied by weight gain increased the risk of hypertension in Chinese men and smoking cessation decreased this effect.

Recent trends in overweight and obesity in adolescents aged 12 to 15 years across 21 countries

BACKGROUND

There is limited information on recent country-specific trends in the prevalence of overweight and obesity in adolescents.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to identify country-specific trends in overweight and obesity in a study of 137 995 adolescents aged 12 to 15 years from 21 countries based on Global School-Based Student Health Surveys from 2005 to 2017.

METHODS

The World Health Organization criteria were used to define paediatric overweight and obesity. The weighted country-specific prevalence of and trends in overweight and obesity across the survey years were evaluated. Random- or fixed-effect meta-analyses were used to calculate pooled trends across 21 countries.

RESULTS

A significant upward trend was observed in the prevalence of overweight and obesity in 10 countries, whereas a significant downward trend was observed in 2 countries (p_s  < 0.05). The pooled prevalence of overweight and obesity in the first and last surveys was 24.8% and 27.7%, respectively. A significant upward pooled trend was observed in the prevalence of overweight and obesity across 21 countries (odds ratios [95% confidence intervals]: 1.22 [1.11, 1.35]). An increasing trend in the prevalence of overweight and obesity was specifically observed in high-, upper-middle- and lower-middle-income countries.

CONCLUSION

This study confirms a significant upward trend in the prevalence of overweight and obesity in 12- to 15-year-old adolescents, thus emphasizing the urgent need for interventions to mitigate overweight and obesity in this demographic.

Long-term changes in body composition and their relationships with cardiometabolic risk factors: A population-based cohort study

The aim of the present study was to classify the latent body fat trajectories of Chinese adults and their relationships with cardiometabolic risk factors. Data were obtained from the China Health Nutrition Survey for 3,013 participants, who underwent six follow-up visits between 1993 and 2009. Skinfold thickness and other anthropometric indicators were used to estimate body composition. The latent growth model was used to create fat mass to fat-free mass ratio (F2FFMR) trajectory groups. Blood pressure, fasting plasma glucose, total cholesterol, triglycerides, and high- and low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol were measured in venous blood after an overnight fast. Logistic regression was used to explore the relationships of F2FFMR trajectory with cardiometabolic risk factors. In men, four types of F2FFMR trajectory were identified. After adjustment for behavioral and lifestyle factors, age, and weight status, and compared with the Low stability group, the High stability group showed a significant association with diabetes. In women, three types of F2FFMR trajectory were identified. Compared to the Low stability group, the High stability group showed significant associations with diabetes and hypertension after adjustment for the same covariates as in men. Thus, in this long-term study we have identified three F2FFMR trajectory groups in women and four in men. In both sexes, the highly stable F2FFMR is associated with the highest risk of developing diabetes, independent of age and body mass. In addition, in women, it is associated with the highest risk of hypertension, independent of age and body mass.

The role of APOE in cognitive trajectories and motor decline in Parkinson's disease

We aimed to investigate the role of the APOE genotype in cognitive and motor trajectories in Parkinson's disease (PD). Using PD registry data, we retrospectively investigated a total of 253 patients with PD who underwent the Mini-Mental State Exam (MMSE) two or more times at least 5 years apart, were aged over 40 years, and free of dementia at the time of enrollment. We performed group-based trajectory modeling to identify patterns of cognitive change using the MMSE. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was used to investigate the role of the APOE genotype in cognitive and motor progression. Trajectory analysis divided patients into four groups: early fast decline, fast decline, gradual decline, and stable groups with annual MMSE scores decline of - 2.8, - 1.8, - 0.6, and - 0.1 points per year, respectively. The frequency of APOE ε4 was higher in patients in the early fast decline and fast decline groups (50.0%) than those in the stable group (20.1%) (p = 0.007). APOE ε4, in addition to older age at onset, depressive mood, and higher H&Y stage, was associated with the cognitive decline rate, but no APOE genotype was associated with motor progression. APOE genotype could be used to predict the cognitive trajectory in PD.