A modified prognostic score for critically ill patients with cirrhosis: An observational study

Co-orchestration of acute kidney injury and non-kidney organ failures in critically ill patients with cirrhosis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Little is known on the course of acute kidney injury (AKI) and its relation to non-kidney organ failures and mortality in critically ill patients with cirrhosis (CICs).

METHODS

We conducted a large prospective, single-centre, observational study in which CICs were followed up daily, during the first 7 days of intensive care, collecting prespecified criteria for AKI, extrarenal extrahepatic organ failures (ERH-OFs) and systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS).

RESULTS

A total of 291 patients admitted to ICU were enrolled; 231 (79.4%) had at least one ERH-OFs, 168 (58%) had AKI at presentation, and 145 (49.8%) died by 28 days. At day seven relative to baseline, 151 (51.8%) patients had progressive or persistent AKI, while the rest remained free of AKI or had AKI improvement. The 28-day mortality rate was higher among patients with progressive/persistent AKI (74.2% vs 23.5%; P < .001) or maximum stage 3 of AKI in the first week. Two-level mixed logistic regression modelling identified independent baseline risk factors for progressive/persistent AKI, including 3 to 4 SIRS criteria, infections due to multidrug-resistant bacteria (MDR), elevated serum bilirubin, and number of ERH-OFs. Follow-up risk factors included increases in bilirubin and chloride levels, and new development of 2 or 3 ERH-OFs.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results show that among CICs admitted to the ICU, the stage and course of AKI in the first week determines outcomes. Strategies combating MDR infections, multiorgan failure, liver failure and intense systemic inflammation could prevent AKI progression or persistence in CICs.

External validation and improvement of LiFe score as a prediction tool in critically ill cirrhosis patients

AIM

The LiFe (liver, injury, failure, evaluation) score, calculated according to arterial lactate, total bilirubin, and international normalized ratio (INR), is a novel score for risk prediction in intensive care unit (ICU) patients with cirrhosis. The present study aimed to externally validate and optimize the LiFe score for predicting outcomes in critically ill cirrhosis patients.

METHODS

The study used the single-center database Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care-III (MIMIC-III) for analysis. A total of 536 critically ill cirrhosis patients from the MIMIC-III database were analyzed. Routine clinical and laboratory variables were included to compare survivors with non-survivors. The LiFe score was then regraded into three groups to calculate the optimal cut-off values.

RESULTS

In-ICU mortality occurred in 169 (31.5%) of the patients. Survivor and non-survivor cohorts were similar in age, gender, and etiology of cirrhosis. Multivariate analyses of in-ICU mortality identified four independent variables: total bilirubin, creatinine, INR, and arterial lactate. An external validation of the LiFe score showed good accuracy for predicting in-ICU mortality with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.708. In addition, a significant positive correlation exists between LiFe score and acute-on-chronic liver failure grade (r = 0.393, P < 0.001). A log-rank test comparing the strata of simplified LiFe scores found that in-ICU mortality rates were 16.8%, 27.7%, and 51.7%, respectively, among patients in the three simplified risk categories.

CONCLUSIONS

The LiFe score, based on laboratory tests, can be useful as a preliminary and convenient scoring tool in a broad cohort of critically ill cirrhosis patients. Simplified risk categories to stratify patients into three groups improves its feasibility and generalizability for clinical application.

Comparison of the predictive value of scoring systems on the prognosis of cirrhotic patients with suspected infection

Cirrhotic patients with infection are prone to develop sepsis or even septic shock rendering poorer prognosis. However, few methods are available to predict the prognosis of cirrhotic patients with infection although there are some scoring systems can be used to predict general patients with cirrhosis. Therefore, we aimed to explore the predictive value of scoring systems in determining the outcome of critically ill cirrhotic patients with suspected infection.This was a retrospective cohort study based on a single-center database. The prognostic accuracy of the systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) criteria, quick Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (qSOFA), chronic liver failure (CLIF)-SOFA, quick CLIF-SOFA (qCLIF-SOFA), CLIF-consortium organ failure (CLIF-C OF), Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD), and Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) II were compared by using area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve and net benefit with decision curve analysis. The primary endpoint was in-hospital mortality while the secondary endpoints were duration of hospital and intensive care unit (ICU) stay and ICU mortality.A total of 1438 cirrhotic patients with suspected infection were included in the study. Nearly half the patients (50.2%) were admitted to the ICU due to hepatic encephalopathy and the overall in-hospital mortality was 32.0%. Hospital and ICU mortality increased as the score of each scoring system increased (P < .05 for all trends). The AUROC of CLIF-SOFA (AUROC, 0.742; 95% confidence interval, CI, 0.714-0.770), CLIF-C OF (AUROC, 0.741; 95% CI, 0.713-0.769), and SAPS II (AUROC, 0.759; 95% CI, 0.733-0.786) were significantly higher than SIRS criteria (AUROC, 0.618; 95% CI, 0.590-0.647), qSOFA (AUROC, 0.612; 95% CI, 0.584-0.640), MELD (AUROC, 0.632; 95% CI, 0.601-0.662), or qCLIF-SOFA (AUROC, 0.680; 95% CI, 0.650-0.710) (P < .05 for all). In the decision curve analysis, the net benefit of implementing CLIF-SOFA and CLIF-C OF to predict the prognosis of cirrhotic patients with suspected infection were higher compared with SIRS, qSOFA, MELD, or qCLIF-SOFA.CLIF-SOFA and CLIF-C OF scores, as well as SAPS II were better tools than SIRS, qSOFA, MELD, or qCLIF-SOFA to evaluate the prognosis of critically ill cirrhotic patients with suspected infection.

AKI-CLIF-SOFA: a novel prognostic score for critically ill cirrhotic patients with acute kidney injury

Critically ill cirrhotic patients with acute kidney injury (AKI) are associated with high mortality rates. The aims of this study were to develop a specific prognostic score for critically ill cirrhotic patients with AKI, the acute kidney injury - Chronic Liver Failure - Sequential Organ Failure- Assessment score (AKI-CLIF-SOFA) score. This study focused on 527 cirrhotic patients with AKI admitted to intensive care unit and constructed a new scoring system, the AKI-CLIF-SOFA, which can be used to prognostically assess mortality in these patient population. Parameters included in this model were analysed by cox regression. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (auROC) of AKI-CLIF-SOFA scoring system was 0.74 in 30 days, 0.74 in 90 days, 0.72 in 270 days and 0.72 in 365 days. Additionally, this study demonstrated that the new model had more discriminatory power than chronic liver failure- sequential organ failure assessment score (CLIF-SOFA), SOFA, model for end stage liver disease (MELD), kidney disease improving global outcomes (KDIGO) and simplified acute physiology score II (SAPS II) (auROC: 0.72, 0.66, 0.64, 0.62, 0.63 and 0.65 respectively, all P < 0.05) for the prediction of the 365-days mortality. Therefore, AKI-CLIF-SOFA demonstrated a valuable discriminative ability compared with KDIGO, CLIF-SOFA, MELD, SAPS II and SOFA in critically ill cirrhotic patients with AKI.

Quick chronic liver failure-sequential organ failure assessment: an easy-to-use scoring model for predicting mortality risk in critically ill cirrhosis patients

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Critically ill cirrhosis patients have an increased risk of morbidity and mortality, even after admission to the ICU. Our objectives were to compare the predictive accuracy of model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), MELD-Na, UK model for end-stage liver disease, and chronic liver failure-sequential organ failure assessment (CLIF-SOFA) by the development and validation of an easy-to-use prognostic model [named quick CLIF-SOFA (qCLIF-SOFA)] for early risk prediction in critically ill patients with cirrhosis.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Overall, 1460 patients were extracted from the MIMIC-III database and enrolled in this study at 30-day and 90-day follow-up. qCLIF-SOFA was developed in the established cohort (n=730) and a performance analysis was completed in the validation cohort (n=730) using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. Results were compared with CLIF-SOFA.

RESULTS

The performance of CLIF-SOFA was significantly better than that of MELD, MELD-Na, and UK model for end-stage liver disease for predicting both 30-day and 90-day mortality (all P<0.05). qCLIF-SOFA consisted of five independent factors (bilirubin, creatinine, international normalized ratio, mean arterial pressure, and vasopressin) associated with mortality. In the established cohort, CLIF-SOFA and qCLIF-SOFA predicted mortality with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve values of 0.768 versus 0.743 at 30-day, 0.747 versus 0.744 at 90-day, and 0.699 versus 0.706 at 1 year, respectively (all P>0.05). A similar result was observed in the validation cohort (0.735 vs. 0.734 at 30 days, 0.723 vs. 0.737 at 90 days, and 0.682 vs. 0.700 at 1 year, respectively, all P>0.05).

CONCLUSION

The utility of CLIF-SOFA was further shown to predict mortality for critically ill cirrhosis patients. The novel and simpler qCLIF-SOFA model showed comparable accuracy compared with existing CLIF-SOFA for prognostic prediction.

Comparison of Proposed Modified and Original Sequential Organ Failure Assessment Scores in Predicting ICU Mortality: A Prospective, Observational, Follow-Up Study

Background. The sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score has been recommended to triage critically ill patients in the intensive care unit (ICU). This study aimed to compare the performance of our proposed MSOFA and original SOFA scores in predicting ICU mortality. Methods. This prospective observational study was conducted on 250 patients admitted to the ICU. Both tools scores were calculated at the beginning, 24 hours of ICU admission, and 48 hours of ICU admission. Diagnostic odds ratio and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve were used to compare the two scores. Results. MSOFA and SOFA predicted mortality similarly with an area under the ROC curve of 0.837, 0.992, and 0.977 for MSOFA 1, MSOFA 2, and MSOFA 3, respectively, and 0.857, 0.988, and 0.988 for SOFA 1, SOFA 2, and SOFA 3, respectively. The sensitivity and specificity of MSOFA 1 in cut-off point 8 were 82.9% and 68.4%, respectively, MSOFA 2 in cut-off point 9.5 were 94.7% and 97.1%, respectively, and MSOFA 3 in cut-off point of 9.3 were 97.4% and 93.1%, respectively. There was a significant positive correlation between the MSOFA 1 and the SOFA 1 (r: 0.942), 24 hours (r: 0.972), and 48 hours (r: 0.960). Conclusion. The proposed MSOFA and the SOFA scores had high diagnostic accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity for predicting mortality.

Rapid skeletal muscle wasting predicts worse survival in patients with liver cirrhosis

AIM

Sarcopenia impairs the outcome of patients with liver cirrhosis independently of liver function reserves. The aim of this study was to investigate whether the rate of skeletal muscle wasting predicts mortality in cirrhotic patients.

METHODS

This retrospective study evaluated 149 cirrhotic patients who visited our hospital between March 2004 and September 2012. The skeletal muscle cross-sectional area at the level of the third lumbar vertebra was measured by computed tomography, from which the skeletal muscle index was obtained for diagnosis of sarcopenia. The relative change in skeletal muscle area per year (ΔSMA/y) was calculated in each patient. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was performed to evaluate risk factors for mortality.

RESULTS

Of the 149 cirrhotic patients, 94 (63%) were diagnosed with sarcopenia. The median of ΔSMA/y in all patients was -2.2%. For patients in Child-Pugh class A, B and C, ΔSMA/y was -1.3%, -3.5% and -6.1%, respectively. During a median follow-up period of 39 months (range, 1-110), 45 patients (30%) died. The optimal cut-off value of ΔSMA/y for predicting mortality was -3.1%; the survival rate in patients with ΔSMA/y of -3.1% or less was significantly lower than in patients with ΔSMA/y of more than -3.1% (P < 0.0001). The multivariate Cox proportional hazards model found ΔSMA/y of -3.1% or less to be significantly associated with mortality in cirrhotic patients (hazard ratio = 2.73, 95% confidence interval = 1.43-5.44, P < 0.01).

CONCLUSION

ΔSMA/y is useful for predicting mortality in patients with liver cirrhosis. Management of skeletal muscle may contribute toward improving the outcome of cirrhotic patients.

Impact of chronic hepatitis C on mortality in cirrhotic patients admitted to intensive-care unit

BACKGROUND

Cirrhosis and severe sepsis are factors associated with increased mortality in intensive care unit (ICU), but chronic hepatitis C (CHC) has been less studied in ICU. The aim of this study was to analyze the impact of CHC on the mortality of cirrhotic patients admitted to ICU according to severe sepsis and decompensated cirrhosis.

METHODS

We carried out a retrospective study based on CHC-cirrhotic patients (CHC-group) admitted to ICU (n = 1138) and recorded in the Spanish Minimum Basic Data Set (2005-2010). A control-group (randomly selected cirrhotic patients without HIV, HBV, or HCV infections) was also included (n = 4127). The primary outcome variable was ICU mortality. The cumulative mortality rate on days 7, 30, and 90 in patients admitted to the ICUs was calculated by dividing the number of deaths by the number of patients admitted to the ICU. The adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) for death in the ICU was estimated through a semi-parametric Bayesian model of competing risk.

RESULTS

The CHC-group had a higher cumulative incidence of severe sepsis than the control-group in compensated cirrhosis (37.4 vs. 31.1%; p = 0.024), but no differences between the CHC-group and the control-group in decompensated cirrhosis were found. Moreover, a higher cumulative incidence of severe sepsis was associated with decompensated cirrhosis compared to compensated cirrhosis in the control-group (40.1 vs. 31.1%; p < 0.001) whereas this was not observed in the CHC group (38.1 vs. 37.4%; p = 0.872). The CHC-group had higher cumulative mortality than the control-group by days 7 (47 vs. 41.3%; p < 0.001), 30 (78.5 vs. 73.5%; p < 0.001), and 90 (96.3 vs. 95.9%; p < 0.001). In a competitive risk model, the CHC-group had a higher risk of dying if the ICU course was complicated by severe sepsis (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) = 1.19; p = 0.003), but no significant values in patients with absence of severe sepsis were found (aHR = 1.09; p= 0.068). When patients were stratified by cirrhosis stage and severe sepsis, CHC patients with compensated cirrhosis had the higher risk of death if they had severe sepsis (aHR = 1.35; p = 0.002). Moreover, the survival was low in patients with decompensated cirrhosis and severe sepsis but we did not find significant differences between CHC-group and control-group.

CONCLUSIONS

CHC was associated with an increased risk of death in cirrhotic patients admitted to ICUs, particularly in patients with compensated cirrhosis and severe sepsis.