Validation of noninvasive methods to predict the presence of gastroesophageal varices in a cohort of patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease

Prediction Modelling for Gastroesophageal Variceal Bleeding in Patients With Chronic Hepatitis B Using Four-dimensional Flow MRI

Background/Aims

In this study, we aim to develop a model for predicting gastroesophageal varices (GEV) bleeding in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) by utilizing hemodynamic parameters obtained through four-dimensional flow MRI (4D flow MRI).

Methods

This study conducted a prospective enrollment of CHB patients suspected of GEV from October 2021 to May 2022. The severity of varices and bleeding risk were evaluated using clinical findings and upper gastrointestinal endoscopy, and patients were classified into high-risk and non-high-risk groups. The study utilized serological examination, ultrasonographic examination, and 4D flow MRI. Relevant parameters were selected through univariate and multivariate analyses, and a prediction model was established using binary logistic regression analysis. The model was combined with the Baveno Ⅵ/Ⅶ and Expanded Baveno Ⅵ/Ⅶ criteria to evaluate diagnostic efficacy and the risk of avoiding endoscopic examination.

Results

A total of 40 CHB patients were enrolled and categorized into the high-risk group (n = 15) and the non-high-risk group (n = 25). The spleen diameter and regurgitant fraction (R%) were independent predictors of variceal bleeding and a predictive model was established. The combination of this prediction model and the Baveno Ⅵ/Ⅶ criteria achieved high diagnostic efficiency, enabling 45.00% (18/40) of patients to be exempted from the unnecessary endoscopic procedure and the high-risk misclassification rate (0%) was less than 5%.

Conclusion

The prediction model generated by 4D flow MRI has the potential to assess the likelihood of varices and can be supplemented by the Baveno VI/VII criteria to improve diagnostic accuracy in CHB patients.

Spleen stiffness determined by spleen-dedicated device accurately predicted esophageal varices in cirrhosis patients

BACKGROUND

The advantages of spleen stiffness in prediction of high-risk varices (HRV) in cirrhosis patients have been confirmed. Recently, a new device utilizing a 100 Hz probe dedicated to spleen stiffness measurement (SSM) was developed.

OBJECTIVES

To validate the clinical applicability of SSM@100 Hz in predicting HRV by comparing it with other non-invasive tests (NITs).

DESIGN

A prospective cohort study.

METHODS

A total of 171 cirrhosis patients who underwent esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD) examination were included in this study. SSM using a 100 Hz probe and liver stiffness measurement using a 50 Hz probe were performed. Additionally, 22 healthy controls underwent spleen stiffness evaluation using the 100 Hz probe.

RESULTS

The failure rates of spleen stiffness examination in patients with cirrhosis and in healthy controls were 2.9% and 4.5%, respectively. The means of SSM values were 56.4 ± 21.6 and 13.8 ± 6.7 kPa in cirrhosis and controls. SSM increased proportionally with the severity of esophageal varices. The area under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) for spleen stiffness in predicting HRV was 0.881 (95% confidence interval 0.829-0.934), with a cutoff value of 43.4 kPa. The accuracy, false negative rate and EGD spare rate were 86.5%, 2.5% and 24.3%, respectively. For HRV prediction, SSM was comparable to expanded Baveno VI and VII and superior to other NITs. As to viral versus non-viral cirrhosis and compensated versus decompensated cirrhosis, the cut-off and performance of SSM were different.

CONCLUSION

SSM@100 Hz demonstrates high accuracy in predicting HRV with a low missed HRV rate. Our findings suggest that SSM@100 Hz can be used independently due to its simplicity and effectiveness. However, further studies are needed to determine appropriate cutoff values based on the cause of cirrhosis and liver function.

TRAIL REGISTRATION

ChiCTR2300070270.

Spleen stiffness: a predictive factor of dismal prognosis in liver cirrhosis

Portal hypertension (PH) is a major complication of liver cirrhosis, as it predisposes to the development of serious clinical manifestations such as ascites, hepatic encephalopathy and variceal bleeding, aggravating the prognosis of patients. Hepatic vein pressure gradient (HVPG) is considered the reference method for the estimation of the presence and severity of PH, but this procedure is available only in specialized centers. Alternatively, many non-invasive methods have been proposed in order to substitute HVPG. Among them, liver stiffness measurement (LSM) has been widely used, as it has been shown to correlate well with HVPG, though this relationship seems to weaken in values of HVPG higher than 12 mmHg, the threshold of serious complications development. Several studies supported the use of spleen stiffness measurement (SSM) instead of LSM, anticipating to a more adequate assessment of this advanced stage of PH. The aim of this paper is to critically appraise and summarize the literature about the role of SSM as a predictive tool of liver decompensation and prognosis, highlighting the strengths and the potential limitations of the studies published so far. EXPERT'S OPINION: The utility of SSM in ruling out high risk for bleeding varices in cirrhotic patients has been demonstrated, driving the Baveno VII consensus to encompass SSM in its last recommendations, though its use in patients with non-viral cirrhosis remains to be validated. We believe that in the near future, SSM alone or combined with other tests, will being used not only for sparing upper endoscopies, but also for predicting decompensation and prognosis in advanced compensated cirrhotic patients, regardless of liver disease's etiology. Herein, we present the data that support this consideration, pointing out these issues that should further be investigated in order to elucidate and intensify the value of SSM in the management of patients with liver cirrhosis.

Nomogram model for predicting esophsagogastric varices in hepatocellular carcinoma with cirrhosis

BACKGROUND/AIMS

The prognosis for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) with cirrhosis is poor. The risk of death also increases in patients with esophagogastric varices (EGV). Based on routine clinical features and related noninvasive parameters, a nomogram prediction model was developed in this study to facilitate the early identification of EGV in HCC patients.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort analysis of patients with HCC in the Renmin Hospital of Wuhan University from 2020 to 2021 was performed. Clinical and noninvasive parameters closely related to EGV risk were screened by univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis and integrated into a nomogram. The nomogram was validated internally and externally by calibration, receiver operating characteristic curve and decision curve analysis (DCA).

RESULTS

A total of 165 patients with HCC-related cirrhosis were recruited. In the raining cohort, multivariate logistic regression analysis identified platelet (PLT) [odds ratio (OR), 0.950; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.925-0.977; P < 0.001], D-dimer (OR. 3.341; 95% CI, 1.751-6.376, P < 0.001), spleen diameter (SD) (OR, 2.585; 95% CI, 1.547-4.318; P < 0.001) as independent indicators for EGV. The nomogram for predicting EGV risk was well calibrated with a favorable discriminative ability and an area under curve of 0.961. In addition, the nomogram showed better net benefits in the DCA. The results were validated in the validation cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

The proposed nomogram model based on three indicators (PLT, D-dimer and SD) showed an excellent predictive effect, leading to the avoidance of unnecessary esophagogastroduodenoscopy.

Nomogram based on spleen volume expansion rate predicts esophagogastric varices bleeding risk in patients with hepatitis B liver cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

We aimed to explore the risk factors for hemorrhage of esophagogastric varices (EGVs) in patients with hepatitis B cirrhosis and to construct a novel nomogram model based on the spleen volume expansion rate to predict the risk of esophagogastric varices bleeding.

METHODS

Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to analyze the risk factors for EGVs bleeding. Nomograms were established based on the multivariate analysis results. The predictive accuracy of the nomograms was assessed using the area under the curve (AUC or C-index) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and calibration curves. Decision curve analysis was used to determine the clinical benefit of the nomogram. We created a nomogram of the best predictive models.

RESULTS

A total of 142 patients' hepatitis B cirrhosis with esophagogastric varices were included in this study, of whom 85 (59.9%) had a history of EGVs bleeding and 57 (40.1%) had no EGVs bleeding. The spleen volume expansion rate, serum sodium levels (mmol/L), hemoglobin levels (g/L), and prothrombin time (s) were independent predictors for EGVs bleeding in patients with hepatitis B liver cirrhosis (P < 0.05). The above predictors were included in the nomogram prediction model. The area under the ROC curve (AUROC) of the nomogram was 0.781, the C-index obtained by internal validation was 0.757, and the calibration prediction curve fit well with the ideal curve. The AUROCs of the PLT-MELD and APRI were 0.648 and 0.548, respectively.

CONCLUSION

In this study, a novel nomogram for predicting the risk of EGVs bleeding in patients with hepatitis B cirrhosis was successfully constructed by combining the spleen volume expansion rate, serum sodium levels, hemoglobin levels, and prothrombin time. The predictive model can provide clinicians with a reference to help them make clinical decisions.

Application of Ultrasound Elastography in Assessing Portal Hypertension

Portal hypertension is a common manifestation in late-to-end-stage liver diseases and can cause severe complications such as ascites, hepatic encephalopathy, etc. However, an early diagnosis of portal hypertension is often difficult as it can be asymptomatic. Though the gold standard to diagnose portal hypertension is hepatic vein catheterization, ultrasound elastography is regarded as a noninvasive alternative that can be used to accurately predict portal hypertension and a few further complications such as gastro-esophageal varices. Since ultrasound elastography is available in most medical centers, and is cheaper and noninvasive, studying its function in predicting portal hypertension is of paramount importance. Therefore, this review generalized the results of recently published articles in order to establish the indicators that were related to diagnostic and prediction efficiency. Our study found that various technologies of ultrasound elastography could be used to predict portal hypertension with satisfactory diagnostic sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, and AUC. Meanwhile, we also recognized similar diagnostic efficiency of ultrasound elastography in gastro-esophageal varices.

Baveno VI criteria as a prognostic factor for clinical complications in patients with compensated cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Combination of liver stiffness measurement and platelets count is a tool to safely rule out varices needing treatment (VNT) in patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD).

AIMS

to evaluate 4-year liver-related complications and survival in low-risk patients according to Baveno VI criteria.

METHODS

we conducted a monocentric retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data of all consecutive patients, with cirrhosis (LSM≥12.5 kPa) and without previous complication, evaluated between 2012 and 2015. Liver-related complications and survival were compared between 2 groups of patients: favourable (LSM< 20 kPa and platelet count>150.000/mm3) and unfavourable Baveno VI status patients (LSM ≥ 20 kPa or platelet count ≤150.000/mm3).

RESULTS

455 patients with cACLD were analysed. Two hundred patients had favourable Baveno VI criteria, 3.6% with VNT. The 4-year probability of being free of acute decompensation was higher in low-risk patients (94.4 ± 1.8% vs. 85.7%±2.6%, p = 0.018). Unfavourable Baveno status was independently associated with acute decompensation. The probability of being free of HCC was significantly higher in low-risk patients (94.2 ± 1.8% vs. 87.6 ± 2.4%, p = 0.048). Liver-related mortality was not different between the 2 groups (p = 0.56).

CONCLUSION

The Baveno VI criteria could predict clinical outcome in cACLD.

Small varices in chronic liver diseases

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Gastroesophageal varices are common complications of chronic liver diseases (CLDs) and portal hypertension. Small varices have the risk of progressing to larger varices, causing bleeding or even death. Thus, early detection and appropriate management of small varices are necessary. The purpose of this review is to summarize the advance in the recent 5years about diagnosing and managing the small varices in CLDs.

RECENT FINDINGS

The diagnosing methods of small varices in recent studies include improved endoscopic examinations, such as capsule endoscopy, and many noninvasive methods, including blood tests, ultrasound, computed tomography and magnetic resonance. For the management of small varices, though it is controversial, prevention using nonselective beta-blockers is still an essential part.

SUMMARY

In this review, we summarize the classification of varices, the invasive and noninvasive diagnostic methods, their performances, and the emerging progression in the management of small varices in the recent 5 years. We hope that this review provides relevant information to understand better and appropriately manage small varices.

Doppler hemodynamic liver index and hepatic elastic modulus: Advanced ultrasonographic techniques for non-invasive prediction of esophageal varices in cirrhosis

PURPOSE

Currently esophagoscopy is the gold standard for assessment of esophageal varices in cirrhosis. Predicting the presence of esophageal varices, varices needing treatment (VNT) and variceal grade by advanced ultrasonographic techniques using a combination of Doppler hemodynamic liver index (HDLI) (quantifying portal hypertension) and hepatic elastic modulus (quantifying hepatic fibrosis) would be a cost-effective and non-invasive alternative to routine endoscopy.

METHODS

Our cross-sectional study consisted of cirrhotic patients diagnosed using clinical features and laboratory parameters. Portal venous Doppler and liver sonoelastography were performed in selected subjects for obtaining measurements of HDLI (portal vein diameter/mean velocity) and hepatic elastic modulus respectively. Within 3 days of ultrasound, the subjects underwent upper GI endoscopy for assessment of presence, VNT and grade (F1, F2, F3) of varices. Subjects were divided into two groups (without and with varices) and data analyzed using XLSTAT.

RESULTS

A total of 60 subjects (26 without and 34 with varices) were evaluated. Mean Doppler HDLI of subjects with varices was significantly higher (0.72 vs. 0.59, p < 0.0001) with progressive increase in values with variceal grade, being highest in grade-F3 (mean 0.77). Likewise, mean hepatic elastic modulus was also higher in subjects with varices (28.9 vs. 12.6 kPa, p < 0.0001) and showed progressive increase with grade (51.1 kPa for F3). For predicting presence of varices, maximum accuracy of elastic modulus was at cut-off of 14.5 kPa (sensitivity, specificity 83% and 84.6%) and Doppler HDLI was at 0.66 (66% and 92.3%). Good inter-rater agreement was present (κ 0.66).

CONCLUSION

Combination of Doppler HDLI and hepatic elastic modulus is an excellent non-invasive method for predicting the presence, VNT, and variceal grade and may obviate need for routine endoscopic screening in cirrhosis.

Validation of the EVendo score for the prediction of varices in cirrhotic patients

BACKGROUND

Screening endoscopy for varices may be deferred when the calculated EVendo score is ≤3.90. This novel score has not been validated in an external cohort. This study aimed to assess the performance of the EVendo score and compare it with the Baveno VI criteria.

METHODS

We identified and calculated this score in all cirrhotic patients who underwent screening endoscopy for the first time with laboratory tests and liver stiffness measurements within 6 months of the endoscopy date.

RESULTS

In total, 103 patients were included. An EVendo score of ≤3.90 identified patients with no gastroesophageal varices (GEV) and varices needing treatment (VNT) with sensitivities of 82% and 83% and specificities of 57% and 34%, respectively. The negative predictive value for VNT was 94%. A comparison with the Baveno VI criteria in Child-Turcotte-Pugh-A patients showed spared endoscopy and missed VNT rates with EVendo score cutoffs of ≤3.9 and ≤4.5 and the Baveno VI criteria of 25%, 33%, and 16.6% and 1.7%, 1.7%, and 0%, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

EVendo score is reliable in clinical practice for predicting GEV and VNT. The number of spared endoscopies was higher than that with the Baveno VI criteria; however, there were more missed VNT cases.

Derivation of "Egyptian varices prediction (EVP) index": A novel noninvasive index for diagnosing esophageal varices in HCV Patients

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Esophageal Varices is one complication of chronic liver disease that leads to deaths globally due to hemorrhage.

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The prediction of presence the Esophageal Varices is essential to avoid bleeding for patients.

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Now the only diagnostic method for Esophageal Varices by the upper gastrointestinal endoscopy but it has many disadvantages.

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Only ten variables are the most significant for diagnosing the varices: PLT, Stiffness, PC, liver texture, spleen, HCV-RNA, Albumin, gender, Total bilirubin, and PV diameter.

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We Evaluated the effectiveness of several noninvasive markers for predicting Varices.

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We Introduced a novel (EVP) index with acceptable performance for diagnosing Varices and compared with the exist, it could save operating the upper endoscopic by nearly 46.5%.

Introduction

Esophageal Varices (EVs) is one of the major dangerous complications of liver fibrosis. Upper Gastrointestinal (UGI) Endoscopy is necessary for its diagnosis. Repeated examinations for EVs screening severely burden endoscopic units in terms of cost and other side implications; moreover, the lack of public health resources in rural areas and primary hospitals should be considered, particularly in developing countries. So, an accurate noninvasive marker for EV is highly needed for liver disease patients.

Objectives

This study sought to evaluate the values of several indices to determine how adequate are they in predicting EV and build a novel accurate prediction index.

Methods

Five thousand and thirteen patients were enrolled. The laboratory tests, abdominal ultrasonography, liver stiffness measurement using Fibro-scan, and UGI endoscopy were performed. Ten common indices: Fib-4 score, AST-to-platelet ratio index, Fibrosis index, AST/ALT ratio Varices Prediction Rule, Baveno VI, APRI-Fib4 Combo, King score, “Model for End-Stage Liver Disease”, and Lok Score were calculated. The significant predictors for EVs were identified by using “P-value Correlation-based Filter Selection” method, where a novel Egyptian Varices Prediction (EVP) index was developed using binary logistic regression. The diagnostic performance was evaluated by some parameters and the Area Under Curve (AUC).

Results

EVP Index was correlated to EVs at 0.5; it achieved higher performance (AUC 0.788, accuracy 73.3%, and sensitivity 78%) than the other indices at a cutoff point of 0.423.

Conclusion

EVP Index was a good noninvasive predictor. It had an acceptable performance for diagnosing EVs and it was only required regular laboratory tests and imaging data. It can provide a tool for classifying or arranging the patients according to the degree pre-emptive for selective endoscopy and the degree of severity. Also, it will enable clinicians to concentrate on one marker instead of a wide set of parameters.

Quantification of liver extracellular volume using dual-energy CT for ruling out high-risk varices in cirrhosis

PURPOSE

To determine the performance of quantification of liver extracellular volume fraction (fECV) using dual-energy CT (DECT) compared with CT imaging for ruling out high-riskesophageal varices(HRV) in cirrhotic patients.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed 229 cirrhotic patients (training [n = 159] and internal validation cohorts [n = 70]) who underwent dual-source DECT, serum marker assessment, and esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD) from 2017 to 2020. The fECV score was measured using iodine maps from 3-minute delayed, equilibrium-phase images at 100/140 Sn kVp. The association of CT parameters and serum markers with HRV was investigated. Criteria combining the fECV score (≤ 25.1%) or CT imaging with platelet count (> 150,000/mm³) were created and compared to rule out HRV.

RESULTS

In the training cohort, the fECV score (odds ratio (OR), 1.20; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.09, 1.32) and CT imaging (OR, 28.21; 95% CI, 9.31, 85.93) were independent predictors of HRV, along with platelet count (OR, 0.85 and 0.78). Criteria combining the fECV score with platelet count showed significantly better performance than those combining CT imaging with platelet count in ruling out HRV (p < 0.001). Applying the criteria could have safely avoided an additional 10.7% and 8.6% of EGDs in the training and validation cohorts, respectively, achieving a final value of 36.5% and 35.7% spared EGDs (0 HRV missed) compared to CT imaging with platelet count.

CONCLUSIONS

The combined DECT-based fECV score with platelet count is useful for ruling out HRV and can safely avoid more EGDs than CT imaging with platelet count.

Baveno criteria perform better than expanded Baveno and Rete Sicilia Selezione Terapia-Hepatitis C virus criteria for predicting varices needing treatment

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Endoscopy is the gold standard for the detection and staging of varices. Baveno, expanded Baveno, and Rete Sicilia Selezione Terapia-hepatitis C virus (RESIST-HCV) criteria predict varices non-invasively in patients with cirrhosis. We assessed the performance of these criteria for predicting varices needing treatment (VNT).

METHODS

Consecutive patients with compensated cirrhosis due to viral etiologies evaluated between January 2014 and May 2017 were included in this retrospective analysis of a prospectively maintained database. VNTs were defined as either large varies or small varices with red color signs on endoscopy. Performance characteristics to predict VNTs were estimated for the three criteria and spared endoscopy rate (SER) and missed VNT rates were determined.

RESULTS

Two hundred and ninety-five treatment-naïve cirrhosis patients, etiology hepatitis B (n = 154) or hepatitis C (n = 141), mean age 43.1 ± 13.2 years, 127 (43.1%) males were included. The median liver stiffness measurement (LSM) and platelet counts were 19.7 (interquartile range [IQR]: 14.8-28.8) kPa and 119 (IQR: 80-160) × 103/mm3, respectively. The SER and missed VNT rates were as follows-for Baveno criteria: 18.3% and 6.2%; expanded Baveno: 35.3% and 29.2%; and for RESIST-HCV criteria: 37.3% and 22.9%. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value were 93.7%, 21.9%, 18.9%, and 94.7% for Baveno criteria; 70.8%, 42.3%, 19.3%, and 88.1% for expanded Baveno; and 77.1%, 44.5%, 21.3%, and 90.9% for RESIST-HCV criteria, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Baveno criteria are useful to avoid screening endoscopies in patients with cirrhosis of viral etiologies. In contrast, although expanded Baveno criteria and RESIST-HCV criteria spare more endoscopies, a high missed VNT rate limits their applicability.

Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting varices needing treatment in compensated advanced chronic liver disease: A multicenter study

BACKGROUND

Only a small proportion of patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD) had varices needing treatment (VNT) after recommended esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD) screening. We aimed to create a non-invasive nomogram based on routine tests to detect VNT in cACLD patients.

METHODS

The training cohort included 162 cACLD patients undergoing EGD in a university hospital, between January 2014 and September 2019. A nomogram was developed based on the independent predictors of VNT, selected using a multivariate logistic regression analysis. Thirty-three patients from eight university hospitals were prospectively enrolled as validation cohort between December 2018 and December 2019.

RESULTS

The prevalence of VNT was 32.7% (53/162) and 39.4% (13/33) in training and validation cohorts, respectively. The univariate analysis identified six risk factors for VNT. On the multivariate analysis, four of them, i.e., gallbladder wall thickness (odds ratio [OR]: 1.23; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.98-1.56), spleen diameter (OR: 1.02; 95% CI: 1.00-1.04), platelet count (OR: 0.98; 95% CI: 0.97-0.99), and international normalized ratio (OR: 0.58; 95% CI: 0.06-5.84) were independently associated with VNT. Thus, a nomogram based on the four above - mentioned variables was developed, and showed a favorable performance for detecting VNT, with an area under receiver operating characteristic curve of 0.848 (95% CI: 0.769-0.927) in training cohort. By applying a cut-off value of 105 in validation cohort, 31.0% of EGD were safely spared with 3.4% of missed VNT.

CONCLUSION

A nomogram based on routine clinical parameters was developed for detecting VNT and avoiding unnecessary EGD in cACLD patients.

Plasma YAP1 predicts esophageal varices and the risk of variceal bleeding in liver cirrhosis

Aim: To explore the predictive value of plasma YAP1 for esophageal varices (EV) and high-risk EV (HRV) in patients with liver cirrhosis. Materials & methods: A total of 208 patients with liver cirrhosis were enrolled and categorized into four groups. Correlation analysis, logistic regression analysis and receiver operating characteristic curve analysis were performed to evaluate the diagnostic performance of plasma YAP1 for EV and HRV. Results: Plasma YAP1 levels were significantly elevated with the occurrence and progression of EV in cirrhotic patients. The multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that plasma YAP1 is an independent predictor for EV and HRV. For predicting EV and HRV, the YAP1 cut-off values of 5.43 and 6.98 ng/ml yielded the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves of 0.944 and 0.955, respectively. Conclusion: Plasma YAP1 is a potential novel noninvasive biomarker for predicting EV and HRV in patients with liver cirrhosis.

A Novel Score to Predict Esophageal Varices in Patients with Compensated Advanced Chronic Liver Disease

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Several criteria have been described to noninvasively predict the presence of high-risk esophageal varices in patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD). However, a recent study showed that treatment with β blockers could increase decompensation-free survival in patients with clinically significant portal hypertension, thereby making it important to predict the presence of any esophageal varices. We aimed to develop a simple scoring system to predict any esophageal varices.

METHODS

We retrospectively reviewed patients who had vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE) at Cook County Hospital, Chicago, USA. Patients with cACLD and liver stiffness measurement (LSM) ≥ 10 kPa with esophagogastroduodenoscopy performed within one year of VCTE were analyzed. We generated a novel score to predict esophageal varices, using the beta coefficient of predictive variables. The score was validated in an external cohort at the University of Iowa Hospital, USA.

RESULTS

There were 372 patients in the development cohort and 200 patients in the validation cohort. LSM, platelet count, and albumin were identified as predictors of esophageal varices and were included for generating the Cook County score as "platelet count * - 0.0155872 + VCTE score * 0.0387052 + albumin * - 0.8549209." The area under receiver operating curve for our score was 0.86 for any varices and 0.85 for high risk varices and avoided more endoscopies than the expanded Baveno VI criteria while maintaining a very low miss rate (negative predictive value > 99%).

CONCLUSION

We propose a new, highly accurate, and easy-to-use scoring system to predict the presence of not only high-risk but any esophageal varices in patients with cACLD.

Noninvasive Detection of Clinically Significant Portal Hypertension in Compensated Advanced Chronic Liver Disease

Patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease have different prognoses depending on the presence of portal hypertension. Current non-invasive diagnostic methods allow identification of clinically significant portal hypertension. Portosystemic collaterals on imaging or liver stiffness of more than 20 to 25 kPa by using transient elastography identifies patients with clinically significant portal hypertension. Patients with liver stiffness of less than 20 kPa and platelet count of greater than 150 g/L can avoid endoscopy. This rule could be expanded using spleen stiffness. Methods to risk stratify for portal hypertension in compensated advanced chronic liver disease and successfully treated chronic hepatitis C and B are subject of research.

Validation of the Expanded Baveno-VI Criteria for Screening Gastroscopy in Asian Patients with Compensated Advanced Chronic Liver Disease

BACKGROUND

The expanded Baveno-VI criteria may further reduce the need for screening gastroscopy compared to Baveno-VI criteria.

AIM

We sought to validate the performance of these criteria in a cohort of compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD) patients with predominantly hepatitis B infection.

METHODS

Consecutive cACLD patients from 2006 to 2012 with paired liver stiffness measurements and screening gastroscopy within 1 year were included. The expanded Baveno-VI criteria were applied to evaluate the sensitivity (SS), specificity (SP), positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV) for the presence of high-risk varices (HRV).

RESULTS

Among 165 cACLD patients included, 17 (10.3%) had HRV. The commonest etiology of cACLD was chronic hepatitis B (36.4%) followed by NAFLD (20.0%). Application of expanded Baveno-VI criteria avoided more screening gastroscopy (43.6%) as compared to the original Baveno-VI criteria (18.8%) without missing more HRV (1 with both criteria). The overall SS, SP, PPV and NPV of the expanded Baveno-VI criteria in predicting HRV were 94.1%, 48.0%, 17.2% and 98.6%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Application of the expanded Baveno-VI criteria can safely avoid screening gastroscopy in 43.6% of cACLD patients with an excellent ability to exclude HRV.

Baveno VI criteria and spleen stiffness measurement rule out high-risk varices in virally suppressed HBV-related cirrhosis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

There are no data validating the performance of spleen stiffness measurement in ruling out high-risk varices in patients with HBV-related cirrhosis under maintained viral suppression. Thus, we aimed to prospectively validate the performance of spleen stiffness measurement (cut-off 46 kPa) combined with Baveno VI criteria in ruling out high-risk varices in these patients.

METHODS

Patients with cirrhosis were enrolled from April to December 2019 at the hepatology unit of the Nanfang Hospital, China. Liver and spleen transient elastography and esophagogastroduodenoscopy were performed at enrollment. Antiviral regimen(s) and virological responses, evaluated every 3-6 months, were recorded.

RESULTS

Overall 341 patients with HBV-related cirrhosis under maintained viral suppression were enrolled, and the prevalence of high-risk varices was 20.5% (70/341). Baveno VI criteria spared 37.0% (126/341) esophagogastroduodenoscopies and no high-risk varices were missed (0/70). Eight cases of high-risk varices (8/70, 11.4%) were misclassified in patients (208/341, 61.0%) within the expanded Baveno VI criteria. The spleen stiffness measurement cut-off (≤46.0 kPa) was shown to safely rule out high-risk varices in these patients (the percentage of missed high-risk varices was 4.3%). Over half (61.6%, 210/341) of patients met the combined model (Baveno VI criteria and spleen stiffness measurement cut-off ≤46 kPa) and 4.3% (3/70) of high-risk varices cases were misclassified. This combined model exhibited a sensitivity of 95.71%, specificity of 76.38%, negative predictive value of 98.57%, and negative likelihood ratio of 0.06 for ruling out high-risk varices.

CONCLUSIONS

We validated the excellent performance of Baveno VI criteria combined with spleen stiffness measurement (cut-off 46 kPa) for safely ruling out high-risk varices in patients with HBV-related cirrhosis under viral suppression; more than half of esophagogastroduodenoscopy procedures were spared using this combination.

CLINICAL TRIAL NUMBER

NCT04123509 LAY SUMMARY: Esophageal varices have important prognostic implications in patients with cirrhosis. Thus, their timely identification is important so that treatment can be initiated early. Herein, we validated the excellent performance of the combination of Baveno VI criteria with spleen stiffness measurement (cut-off 46 kPa) for ruling out high-risk esophageal varices in patients with HBV-related cirrhosis under maintained viral suppression (with antiviral treatment). This combined model was able to safely rule out high-risk varices (missed/total <5%) and over half (61.6%) of esophagogastroduodenoscopy procedures were spared.

Validation of original, expanded Baveno VI, and stepwise & platelet-MELD criteria to rule out varices needing treatment in compensated cirrhosis from various etiologies

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES

The Baveno VI criteria to rule out varices needing treatment (VNT) was introduced in 2015. Soon after, the expanded Baveno VI and stepwise platelet-MELD criteria were proposed to be equal/more accurate in ruling out VNT; however, neither has been widely validated. We aimed to validate all 3 criteria in compensated cirrhosis from assorted causes.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We conducted a cross-sectional study including all adult compensated cirrhotic patients who underwent endoscopic surveillance at our center from 2014 to 2018 and had transient elastography (TE), and laboratory data for criteria calculation within 6 months of endoscopies. Exclusion criteria were previous decompensation, unreliable/invalid TE results, and liver cancer. The diagnostic performances of all criteria were evaluated.

RESULTS

A total of 128 patients were included. The major cirrhosis etiologies were hepatitis C and B (37.5% and 32.8%, respectively). VNT was observed in 7.8%. All criteria yielded high negative predictive values (NPVs)>95%, missed VNT was observed in 2%, 2.7%, and 2.8% in the original, expanded Baveno VI, and platelet-MELD criteria, respectively. The expanded Baveno VI and the platelet-MELD criteria yielded significantly better specificities and could spare more endoscopies than the original Baveno VI criteria.

CONCLUSIONS

All 3 criteria showed satisfactorily high NPVs in ruling out VNT in compensated cirrhosis from various causes. The expanded Baveno VI and the platelet-MELD criteria could spare more endoscopies than the original Baveno VI criteria. From a public health standpoint, the platelet-MELD criteria might be useful in a resource-limited setting where TE is not widely available.

Spleen Stiffness Probability Index (SSPI): A simple and accurate method to detect esophageal varices in patients with compensated liver cirrhosis

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES

Recent findings pointed out that even low-risk esophageal varices (EVs) are markers of severe prognosis. Accordingly, we analyzed spleen stiffness (SS) as a non-invasive method to predict EVs of any grade in a cohort of patients with compensated liver cirrhosis.

METHOD

We measured SS and liver stiffness (LS) using point-Shear-Wave Elastography (pSWE) with Philips Affiniti 70 system in 210 cirrhotic patients who had undergone endoscopic screening for EVs. We compared SS and LS predictive capability for EVs of any grade.

RESULTS

SS was higher in cirrhotic patients with EVs if compared to patients without EVs (p<0.001). The cut-off analysis detected 31kPa (100% sensitivity and negative predictive value) as the value to rule-out EVs and 69kPa (100% specificity and positive predictive value) to rule-in EVs. Besides, we developed the Spleen Stiffness Probability Index (SSPI), that can provide a probability of presence/absence of EVs. SSPI was the best model according to all discriminative and calibration metrics (AIC=120, BIC=127, AUROC=0.95, Pseudo-R2=0.74). SS demonstrated higher correlation with spleen bipolar diameter and spleen surface (r=0.52/0.55) if compared to LS (r=0.30/0.25) - and with platelet count as well (r=0.67 vs r=0.4).

CONCLUSION

SS showed significantly higher performance than other parameters, proving to be the best non-invasive test in the screening of EVs: by directly applying SS cut-off of 31kPa, our department could have safely avoided endoscopy in 36% of patients. Despite cut-off analyses, it was possible to create a probability model that could further stratify low-risk from high-risk patients (for any grade of EVs).

Liver fibrosis index-based nomograms for identifying esophageal varices in patients with chronic hepatitis B related cirrhosis

BACKGROUND

Esophageal varices (EV) are the most fatal complication of chronic hepatitis B (CHB) related cirrhosis. The prognosis is poor, especially after the first upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage.

AIM

To construct nomograms to predict the risk and severity of EV in patients with CHB related cirrhosis.

METHODS

Between 2016 and 2018, the patients with CHB related cirrhosis were recruited and divided into a training or validation cohort at The First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University. Clinical and ultrasonic parameters that were closely related to EV risk and severity were screened out by univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses, and integrated into two nomograms, respectively. Both nomograms were internally and externally validated by calibration, concordance index (C-index), receiver operating characteristic curve, and decision curve analyses (DCA).

RESULTS

A total of 307 patients with CHB related cirrhosis were recruited. The independent risk factors for EV included Child-Pugh class [odds ratio (OR) = 7.705, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 2.169-27.370, P = 0.002], platelet count (OR = 0.992, 95%CI = 0.984-1.000, P = 0.044), splenic portal index (SPI) (OR = 3.895, 95%CI = 1.630-9.308, P = 0.002), and liver fibrosis index (LFI) (OR = 3.603, 95%CI = 1.336-9.719, P = 0.011); those of EV severity included Child-Pugh class (OR = 5.436, 95%CI = 2.112-13.990, P < 0.001), mean portal vein velocity (OR = 1.479, 95%CI = 1.043-2.098, P = 0.028), portal vein diameter (OR = 1.397, 95%CI = 1.021-1.912, P = 0.037), SPI (OR = 1.463, 95%CI = 1.030-2.079, P = 0.034), and LFI (OR = 3.089, 95%CI = 1.442-6.617, P = 0.004). Two nomograms (predicting EV risk and severity, respectively) were well-calibrated and had a favorable discriminative ability, with C-indexes of 0.916 and 0.846 in the training cohort, respectively, higher than those of other predictive indexes, like LFI (C-indexes = 0.781 and 0.738), SPI (C-indexes = 0.805 and 0.714), ratio of platelet count to spleen diameter (PSR) (C-indexes = 0.822 and 0.726), King's score (C-indexes = 0.694 and 0.609), and Lok index (C-indexes = 0.788 and 0.700). The areas under the curves (AUCs) of the two nomograms were 0.916 and 0.846 in the training cohort, respectively, higher than those of LFI (AUCs = 0.781 and 0.738), SPI (AUCs = 0.805 and 0.714), PSR (AUCs = 0.822 and 0.726), King's score (AUCs = 0.694 and 0.609), and Lok index (AUCs = 0.788 and 0.700). Better net benefits were shown in the DCA. The results were validated in the validation cohort.

CONCLUSION

Nomograms incorporating clinical and ultrasonic variables are efficient in noninvasively predicting the risk and severity of EV.

Improvement of human platelet aggregation post-splenectomy with paraesophagogastric devascularization in chronic hepatitis B patients with cirrhotic hypersplenism

Thrombocytopenia is a common hematological abnormality in patients with cirrhotic hypersplenism. Splenectomy with paraesophagogastric devascularization (SPD) is a conventional surgical therapy which can reverse pancytopenia in these patients. Platelets are traditionally recognized for their central role in hemostasis. However, the status of platelet aggregation in chronic hepatitis B patients with cirrhotic hypersplenism before and after SPD has not been reported yet. A total of 41 cirrhotic patients and 31 healthy controls were included in this study. Platelet aggregation was detected by AggRAM® Advanced Modular System (Helena Laboratories, USA). ELISA was used to detect the cytokines closely related to platelet aggregation. Expressions of platelet membrane glycoproteins (GPs) were evaluated by flow cytometric analysis. Platelet aggregation was found to be decreased distinctly in the cirrhotic patients, and to be restored to normal level after SPD. The cirrhotic patients showed higher plasma levels of the cytokines HMGB1, PEDF, vWF, cAMP and cGMP, which also improved partially after SPD. Moreover, the cirrhotic patients had much lower expression of GPIIb/IIIa, GPIbα and P-selectin than either the healthy controls or SPD patients at basal or activated level. Generally, SPD benefits cirrhotic patients with bleeding tendencies by improving platelet counts and aggregation. GPIIb/IIIa may be the key membrane protein responsible for the change in platelet aggregation before and after SPD.

Baveno VI and Expanded Baveno VI criteria successfully predicts the absence of high-risk gastro-oesophageal varices in a Chilean cohort

BACKGROUND

Baveno VI and expanded Baveno VI criteria have been recommended to circumvent the need for endoscopy screening in patients with a very low probability of varices needing treatment (VNT).

AIM

To validate these criteria in a Latin American population.

METHODS

The ability of Baveno VI criteria (liver stiffness measurement (LSM) <20 kPa and platelet count >150 × 103/μL) and expanded Baveno VI criteria (LSM < 25kPa and platelet count >110 × 103/μL) to exclude the presence of VNT was tested in a prospectively recruited cohort of patients with Child-Pugh A liver cirrhosis and with no previous variceal haemorrhage who attended the liver clinics of three major hospitals in Chile.

RESULTS

Three hundred patients were included. The median (IQR) age was 61 [18-86] years, median MELD was 8.0 (6-17), median LSM was 17.2 (10.2-77) kPa and median platelet count was 137 (23-464) × 103 /μL. The main aetiology was non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (67.3%). VNT were present in 18% of patients. The Baveno VI criteria had a sensitivity of 98.1% and a specificity of 38.2%, potentially sparing 31.3% of upper endoscopies with a very low risk of missing VNT (1.1%). The expanded Baveno VI criteria had a sensitivity of 90.7% and a specificity of 61%, potentially sparing 51.3% of upper endoscopies with a risk of missing VNT of 3.6%. Both criteria were independently associated with the absence of VNT.

CONCLUSION

We validated the Baveno VI and expanded Baveno VI criteria in Chilean population, potentially sparing 31.3% and 51.3% of endoscopies, respectively, with a very low risk of missing VNT. Fondecyt 1191183.

Remaining challenges for the noninvasive diagnosis of esophageal varices in liver cirrhosis

Although endoscopy is the recommended method for detecting esophageal varices, noninvasive methods for diagnosing esophageal varices are needed to avoid unnecessary invasive endoscopic examinations. In recent years, many studies have been performed to predict the presence of high-risk varices in noninvasive ways. The most widely used tools for noninvasive screening for esophageal varices are the Baveno VI and expanded Baveno VI criteria. Even these accepted criteria are not 100% accurate and have some limitations. Here, we summarize the current literature on the noninvasive diagnosis of esophageal varices in liver cirrhosis patients and highlight the remaining issues.

A novel spleen-dedicated stiffness measurement by FibroScan® improves the screening of high-risk oesophageal varices

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Several non-invasive tests (NITs) have been developed to diagnose oesophageal varices (EV), including the recent Baveno VI criteria to rule out high-risk varices (HRV). Spleen stiffness measurement (SSM) with the standard FibroScan® (SSM@50Hz) has been evaluated. However, the EV grading could be underestimated because of a ceiling threshold (75 kPa) of the SSM@50Hz. The aims were to evaluate SSM by a novel spleen-dedicated FibroScan® (SSM@100Hz) for EV diagnosis compared with SSM@50Hz, other validated NITs and Baveno VI criteria.

METHODS

This prospective multicentre study consecutively enrolled patients with chronic liver disease; blood data, endoscopy, liver stiffness measurement (LSM), SSM@50Hz and SSM@100Hz were collected.

RESULTS

Two hundred and sixty patients met inclusion criteria. SSM@100Hz success rate was significantly higher than that of SSM@50Hz (92.5% vs 76.0%, P < .001). SSM@100Hz accuracy for the presence of EV (AUC = 0.728) and HRV (AUC = 0.756) was higher than in other NITs. SSM@100Hz AUC for large EV (0.782) was higher than SSM@50Hz (0.720, P = .027). AUC for HRV with SSM@100Hz (0.780) was higher than with LSM (0.615, P < .001). The spared endoscopy rate of Baveno VI criteria (8.1%) was significantly increased by the combination to SSM@50Hz (26.5%) or SSM@100Hz (38.9%, P < .001 vs others). The missed HRV rate was, respectively, 0% and 4.7% for combinations.

CONCLUSIONS

SSM@100Hz is a new performant non-invasive marker for EV and HRV providing a higher accuracy than SSM@50Hz and other NITs. The combination of Baveno VI criteria and SSM@100Hz significantly increased the spared endoscopy rate compared to Baveno VI criteria alone or combined with SSM@50Hz. Clinical trial number: NCT02180113.

Spleen Stiffness as Predictor of Esophageal Varices in Cirrhosis of Different Etiologies

The purpose of this study is to determine whether esophageal varices (EV) can be identified through the evaluation of spleen stiffness (SSM) via acoustic radiation force impulse (ARFI). A total of 135 patients suffering from cirrhosis underwent a clinical exam, laboratory tests, abdominal ultrasound, liver stiffness (LSM) measurement, SSM evaluation and upper gastrointestinal endoscopy. Based on the endoscopy results, the patients were classified into three groups: those with no evident EV, those with small EV and those with varices needing treatment (VNT). Patients with EV of any grade had significantly higher average SSM values over those with no EV (3.37 m/s versus 2.79 m/s, p-value < 0.001), while patients with VNT showed an even greater difference (3.96 m/s versus 2.93 m/s, p-value < 0.001). SSM proved to be an excellent method of predicting patients with VNT.

Role of Spleen Stiffness Measurement by 2D-Shear Wave Elastography in Ruling Out the Presence of High-Risk Varices in Cirrhotic Patients

BACKGROUND AND AIM

To evaluate if spleen stiffness measurement (SSM) can rule out the presence of high-risk varices in patients with cirrhosis, avoiding an upper gastrointestinal endoscopy (UGE).

METHODS

We enrolled 71 cirrhotic patients irrespective of liver disease's etiology. 2D shear wave elastography (SWE) of spleen and UGE was performed. High-risk varices (HRV) were defined as esophageal varices ≥ 5 mm and/or red spots and any gastric varices.

RESULTS

Esophageal varices were documented in 37 (52.1%) and HRV in 25 (35.2%) patients. SSM was not technically feasible in 7/71 patients (9.8%). From the remaining 64 patients, when those with cholestatic liver disease were excluded (n = 17), SSM < 35.8 kPa was found to exclude well the existence of HRV offering an AUROC of 0.854 (p < 0.001), sensitivity 88.9%, negative predictive value (NPV) 91.3%, specificity 72.4%, and positive predictive value (PPV) 66.7%. Only 2/47 patients (4.3%) were misclassified, and 23 (48.9%) could avoid endoscopy. In the total cohort of 64 patients, SSM < 33.7 kPa was found to exclude well the presence of HRV offering AUROC 0.792 (p < 0.001), sensitivity 91.7%, specificity 60%, NPV 92.3%, and PPV 57.9%. The misclassification rate was 3.1% (2/64), while 26/64 (40.6%) could avoid endoscopy.

CONCLUSIONS

2D-SWE of spleen is a reliable method for ruling out the presence of HRV in cirrhotic patients. If larger studies confirm our results, a large number of endoscopies could be avoided.

Baveno Criteria Safely Identify Patients With Compensated Advanced Chronic Liver Disease Who Can Avoid Variceal Screening Endoscopy: A Diagnostic Test Accuracy Meta-Analysis

Background: The Baveno VI Consensus Workshop defined criteria (liver stiffness measured by transient elastography <20 kPa and platelet count >150 × 109 cells/L) to identify those patients with compensated advanced chronic liver diseases (cACLD) who are unlikely to have varices needing treatment (VNTs) and can safely avoid variceal screening endoscopy. This meta-analysis aimed to quantify the safety and efficacy of these criteria in suspected cACLD with liver stiffness >10 kPa and in compensated chronic liver diseases (cCLD) irrespective of liver stiffness. Methods: A systematic search was conducted in nine databases for studies discussed cACLD or cCLD and tested Baveno criteria against variceal screening endoscopy. The main safety and efficacy endpoints were missed VNT rate and spared endoscopy rate (SER), respectively; calculated with the random effect model. Pooled sensitivity, specificity, and area under the curve (AUC) were calculated with the hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic model. For all outcome measures, 95% confidence intervals were computed. Heterogeneity was tested with I 2-statistics. Results: The search yielded 13 studies including 4,464 patients which reported on suspected cACLD. Pooled missed VNT rate was 0.3% (0.1-0.6%; I 2 = 45.5%), pooled SER was 32.8% (24.8-41.4%; I 2 = 97.0%). Sensitivity, specificity, and AUC of Baveno criteria were 97% (95-98%), 41% (27-57%), and 96% (94-97%), respectively. In the subgroups of cACLD from hepatitis C and B viruses, non-alcoholic fatty liver disease/steatohepatitis, or alcohol, missed VNT rates were 0.0% (0.0-0.3%), 1.2% (0.4-2.2%), 0.0% (0.0-1.3%), or 0.0% (0.0-0.4%), while SERs were 24.2% (20.5-28.1%), 24.9% (21.7-28.4%), 38.6% (10.9-70.8%), or 27.0% (16.9-38.4%), respectively. If we expanded the study population to cCLD, 27 studies included 7,534 patients. Missed VNT rate was 0.2% (0.1-0.5%; I 2 = 39.8%) with a SER of 30.5% (25.2-36.2%; I 2 = 96.1%) while Se, Sp, and AUC were 97% (93-99%), 35% (27-44%), and 80% (77-84%), respectively. Conclusions: The application of Baveno criteria significantly reduces the number of unnecessary variceal screening endoscopies while being safe: cACLD patients with liver stiffness <20 kPa and platelet count > 150 × 109 cells/L carry a very low chance (i.e., 0.3%) of having VNTs. The criteria preserve low missed VNT rate with lower diagnostic performance among cCLD patients.

A new algorithm for predicting long-term survival in chronic hepatitis B patients with variceal bleeding after endoscopic therapy

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

A predictive algorithm for survival is urgently needed in clinical practice. This study aimed to establish an algorithm to predict long-term survival in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients with hepatic cirrhosis and variceal bleeding after endoscopic therapy.

METHODS

This was a retrospective study in which 603 patients who followed-up for three years were randomly assigned into a training cohort and a validation cohort in a 2:1 ratio. A new score model was devised based on the result of Cox regression analysis in the training cohort, and was verified in the validation cohort.

RESULTS

A prediction score model composed of age, neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio, gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase and MELD score was established. The score ranged from 0 to 11. Areas under the ROC curve of the score were 0.821 (p < 0.001, 95% CI: 0.769-0.873) and 0.827 (p < 0.001, 95% CI: 0.753-0.900) in the training cohort and validation cohort, respectively. Scores 0-4 and 5-11 identified patients as low-risk and high-risk categories, respectively. The cumulative 3-year survival rate was significantly higher in the low-risk group than in the high-risk group (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

The new score model can be used to predict long-term survival in CHB patients with hepatic cirrhosis and variceal bleeding after endoscopic therapy.

Performance of Baveno VI and Expanded Baveno VI Criteria for Excluding High-Risk Varices in Patients With Chronic Liver Diseases: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

BACKGROUND & AIMS

We aimed to assess the accuracy of Baveno VI criteria for identification of high-risk varices (HRVs) and varices of any size in patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD).

METHODS

We performed a systematic search of publications through December 2018 for studies that assessed the accuracy of Baveno VI criteria for screening for varices in patients with cACLD. We used hierarchical models to synthesize evidence. We also conducted a post hoc analysis to assess the accuracy of Εxpanded Baveno VI criteria. We appraised the confidence in estimates using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation approach.

RESULTS

We identified 30 studies (8469 participants). Pooled values of Baveno VI criteria for HRVs (26 studies) were a sensitivity of 0.97 (95% CI, 0.95-0.98) and a specificity of 0.32 (95% CI, 0.26-0.39). Pooled sensitivity of Εxpanded Baveno VI criteria for HRVs (12 studies) was 0.90 (95% CI, 0.85-0.93) and specificity was 0.51 (95% CI, 0.45-0.57). In 1000 patients with cACLD, with a prevalence of HRVs of 20%, Baveno VI criteria would prevent endoscopy in 262 patients, but 6 patients with HRVs would be missed. Instead, use of the Εxpanded Baveno VI criteria would result in 428 patients avoiding endoscopy, but 20 patients with HRVs would be missed. The credibility of our findings is moderate or low, mainly owing to the retrospective design of most studies.

CONCLUSIONS

Baveno VI criteria have high diagnostic accuracy as a triage test for screening for HRVs in patients with cACLD. Expanded Baveno VI criteria could reduce the proportion of unnecessary endoscopies further, nevertheless with a higher rate of missed HRVs.

Emerging non-invasive approaches for diagnosis and monitoring of portal hypertension

Clinically significant portal hypertension is associated with an increased risk of developing gastro-oesophageal varices and hepatic decompensation. Hepatic venous pressure gradient measurement and oesophagogastroduodenoscopy are the gold-standard methods for assessing clinically significant portal hypertension (hepatic venous pressure gradient ≥10 mm Hg) and gastro-oesophageal varices, respectively. However, invasiveness, cost, and feasibility limit their widespread use, especially if repeated and serial evaluations are required to assess the efficacy of pharmacotherapy. Although new techniques for non-invasive portal pressure measurement have been pursued for many decades, only recently have new tools been assessed and validated for larger clinical application. This Review focuses on the recent advances in non-invasive approaches for the diagnosis and serial monitoring of portal hypertension and varices for clinical practice.

Evaluation of liver stiffness by 2D-SWE in combination with non-invasive parameters as predictors for esophageal varices in patients with advanced chronic liver disease

Background/aims: Esophageal varices (EV) are common complications in patients with advanced chronic liver disease (ACLD). Non-invasive parameters to exclude EV in patients with ACLD would be desirable. The aim of this study was the evaluation of liver stiffness measurement (LSM) using 2D-shear wave elastography (GE Logiq E9) and other non-invasive parameters as predictors for EV. Methods: Hundred patients with ACLD were enrolled. Abdominal sonography, including measurement of gall bladder wall thickness (GBWT), spleen diameter and LSM, gastroscopy and blood test results were evaluated. Statistical analyses were performed for the association between EV and non-invasive parameters. Results: Fifty-one per cent of the patients had EV. The mean LSM (14.6 kPa) and GBWT (3.88 mm) in the group with EV were significantly higher than in the group without EV (10.6 kPa; 2.94 mm; p < .01). Performing area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, LSM has a better diagnostic performance (0.781) than GBWT (0.707), spleen diameter (0.672) and platelet count (0.635). Combining LSM (cut-off 13.58 kPa) and GBWT (cut-off 3.07 mm) resulted in a sensitivity of 86.3% and a specificity of 71.4% for the presence of EV. A sensitivity of 100% (negative predictive value 1.0) was achieved at LSM >9 kPa or GBWT >4 mm. Following these criteria in our current study population, 18% of the gastroscopies could have been avoided. Conclusions: Combining LSM with non-invasive parameters, especially GBWT, improves the diagnostic accuracy for predicting EV. We suggest reconsidering screening gastroscopy in patients with ACLD who show LSM <9 kPa and GBWT <4 mm due to the very low risk of having varices.

Elastography-based screening for esophageal varices in patients with advanced chronic liver disease

Elastography-based liver stiffness measurement (LSM) is a non-invasive tool for estimating liver fibrosis but also provides an estimate for the severity of portal hypertension in patients with advanced chronic liver disease (ACLD). The presence of varices and especially of varices needing treatment (VNT) indicates distinct prognostic stages in patients with compensated ACLD (cACLD). The Baveno VI guidelines suggested a simple algorithm based on LSM < 20 kPa (by transient elastography, TE) and platelet count > 150 G/L for ruling-out VNT in patients with cACLD. These (and other) TE-based LSM cut-offs have been evaluated for VNT screening in different liver disease etiologies. Novel point shear-wave elastography (pSWE) and two-dimensional shear wave elastography (2D-SWE) methodologies for LSM have also been evaluated for their ability to screen for “any” varices and for VNT. Finally, the measurement of spleen stiffness (SSM) by elastography (mainly by pSWE and 2D-SWE) may represent another valuable screening tool for varices. Here, we summarize the current literature on elastography-based prediction of “any” varices and VNT. Finally, we have summarized the published LSM and SSM cut-offs in clinically useful scale cards.

Small Esophageal Varices in Patients with Cirrhosis-Should We Treat Them?

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

The natural history and classification systems of small varices (≤ 5 mm in diameter) in cirrhotic patients with portal hypertension are summarized. Studies that assessed the course of and therapeutic intervention for small varices are discussed.

RECENT FINDINGS

Current non-invasive methods show suboptimal sensitivity to detect small varices in patients with cirrhosis. Next to etiological therapy, hepatic venous pressure gradient (HVPG)-guided non-selective betablocker or carvedilol treatment has shown to impact on natural history of small varices.

SUMMARY

The main therapeutic focus in cirrhotic patients with small varices is the cure of the underlying etiology. The optimal management of small varices should include measurement of HVPG. A pharmacological decrease in HVPG by non-selective betablocker therapy of ≥ 10% reduces the risk of progression to large varices, first variceal bleeding, and hepatic decompensation. If HVPG is not available, we would recommend carvedilol 12.5 mg q.d. for treatment of small varices in compensated patients without severe ascites. Only if small esophageal varices (EV) are not treated or in hemodynamic non-responders, follow-up endoscopies should be performed in 1-2 years of intervals considering the activity of liver disease or if hepatic decompensation occurs.

Evaluation of portal hypertension in the cirrhotic patient: hepatic vein pressure gradient and beyond

Portal hypertension (PH) is a major complication of liver cirrhosis, as it predisposes to the development of serious clinical manifestations such as ascites, hepatic encephalopathy and variceal bleeding. Till now, the measurement of hepatic vein pressure gradient (HVPG) is the gold standard method to ascertain the presence and significance of PH, as many studies have shown its correlation with the appearance of varices and the possibility of variceal bleeding. However, the invasiveness of this procedure makes it difficult to be used in daily clinical practice. Several noninvasive methods with adequate capability of evaluating liver fibrosis, including elastographic techniques, are currently used as alternatives to HVPG in order to assess the presence and the severity of PH. The aim of this paper is to express an overview of the literature about the actual role of HVPG and all available noninvasive tests on the prediction of development of PH complications, to highlight their advantages and their potential limitations, and to provide the latest trends on clinical practice.

A combined model based on spleen stiffness measurement and Baveno VI criteria to rule out high-risk varices in advanced chronic liver disease

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Recently, Baveno VI guidelines suggested that esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD) can be avoided in patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD) who have a liver stiffness measurement (LSM) <20 kPa and platelet count >150,000/mm³. We aimed to: assess the performance of spleen stiffness measurement (SSM) in ruling out patients with high-risk varices (HRV); validate Baveno VI criteria in a large population and assess how the sequential use of Baveno VI criteria and SSM could safely avoid the need for endoscopy.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed 498 patients with cACLD who had undergone LSM/SSM by transient elastography (TE) (FibroScan®), platelet count and EGDs from 2012 to 2016 referred to our tertiary centre. The new combined model was validated internally by a split-validation method, and externally in a prospective multicentre cohort of 115 patients.

RESULTS

SSM, LSM, platelet count and Child-Pugh-B were independent predictors of HRV. Applying the newly identified SSM cut-off (≤46 kPa) or Baveno VI criteria, 35.8% and 21.7% of patients in the internal validation cohort could have avoided EGD, with only 2% of HRVs being missed with either model. The combination of SSM with Baveno VI criteria would have avoided an additional 22.5% of EGDs, reaching a final value of 43.8% spared EGDs, with <5% missed HRVs. Results were confirmed in the prospective external validation cohort, as the combined Baveno VI/SSM ≤46 model would have safely spared (0 HRV missed) 37.4% of EGDs, compared to 16.5% when using the Baveno VI criteria alone.

CONCLUSIONS

A non-invasive prediction model combining SSM with Baveno VI criteria may be useful to rule out HRV and could make it possible to avoid a significantly larger number of unnecessary EGDs compared to Baveno VI criteria only.

LAY SUMMARY

Spleen stiffness measurement assessed by transient elastography, the most widely used elastography technique, is a non-invasive technique that can help the physician to better stratify the degree of portal hypertension and the risk of esophageal varices in patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease. Performing spleen stiffness measurement together with liver stiffness measurement during the same examination is simple and fast and this sequential model can identify a greater number of patients that can safely avoid endoscopy, which is an invasive and expensive examination.

Meta-analysis of the accuracy of transient elastography in measuring liver stiffness to diagnose esophageal varices in cirrhosis

BACKGROUD

To assess the diagnostic performance of transient elastography (TE) in detecting the presence and size of esophageal varices (EV) in cirrhotic patients.

METHODS

We searched PubMed, Web of Science, Wiley Online Library, Science Direct, China National Knowledge Infrastructure, WeiPu, WanFang database, and Baidu Scholar to identify studies that evaluated the diagnostic accuracy of TE in liver stiffness measurement, compared with esophagogastroduodenoscopy (EGD), for the detection of the presence and degree of EV in cirrhosis.

RESULTS

We included 32 studies in the presence of any EV (grade 1-3; n = 4082), 27 studies on substantial EV (grade 2-3; n = 5221) and 5 studies on large EV (grade 3). The pooled sensitivity, specificity, and diagnostic odds ratio (DOR) were 0.8 (95% CI, 0.78-0.86), 0.68 (95% CI, 0.62-0.74), and 10 (95% CI, 7-14) for any EV; 0.81 (95% CI, 0.77-0.85), 0.72 (95% CI, 0.66-0.77), and 11 (95% CI, 8-15) for substantial EV; and 0.92 (95% CI, 0.83-0.96), 0.78 (95% CI, 0.70-0.85), and 40 (95% CI, 15-107) for large EV. Subgroup analysis revealed that the heterogeneity among studies on any EV could potentially be explained by study location, proportion of Child A, and time interval between TE and EGD; for substantial EV, the proportion of Child A, etiology of cirrhosis, and the time interval between TE and EGD were important heterogeneity factors. Publication bias was found among studies evaluating diagnostic performance of TE for any EV.

CONCLUSION

TE is a good tool for detecting the presence and degree of EV; however, in determination of the liver stiffness cutoff values means that TE is only cautiously used in clinical practice.

Elastography methods for the non-invasive assessment of portal hypertension

The gold standard to assess the presence and severity of portal hypertension remains the hepatic vein pressure gradient, however the recent development of non-invasive assessment using elastography techniques offers valuable alternatives. In this review, we discuss the diagnostic accuracy and utility of such techniques in patients with portal hypertension due to cirrhosis. Areas covered: A literature search focused on liver and spleen stiffness measurement with different elastographic techniques for the assessment of the presence and severity of portal hypertension and oesophageal varices in people with chronic liver disease. The combination of elastography with parameters such as platelet count and spleen size is also discussed. Expert commentary: Non-invasive assessment of liver fibrosis and portal hypertension is a validated tool for the diagnosis and follow-up of patients. Baveno VI recommended the combination of transient elastography and platelet count for ruling out varices needing treatment in patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease. Assessment of aetiology specific cut-offs for ruling in and ruling out clinically significant portal hypertension is an unmet clinical need. The incorporation of spleen stiffness measurements in non-invasive algorithms using validated software and improved measuring scales might enhance the non-invasive diagnosis of portal hypertension in the next 5 years.