Factors Affecting Discharge to Home of Geriatric Intermediate Care Facility Residents in Japan

Cancer risk subsequent to cardiovascular disease: a prospective population-based study and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Previous preclinical studies have revealed the biological links between cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and cancer. However, population-based evidence remained inconclusive.

METHODS

We assessed cancer incidence among individuals with and without CVD condition in a prospective cohort from the UK Biobank (UKB). Multivariable Cox regression and competing risk models were fitted to estimate hazard ratios (HR). A systematic literature search was conducted in Medline, Embase and Cochrane Library databases to identify published population-based cohort studies (last updated on 1 October 2023) investigating the associations between CVD status and subsequent cancer risk. Random-effects meta-analysis was employed to pool relative effect estimates reported by eligible cohorts. Subgroup and sensitivity analyses were conducted to evaluate the associations across various CVD and cancer subtypes.

RESULTS

For the cohort study in the UKB, after a median follow-up of 11.58 years, a total of 18,471 and 66,891 cancer cases occurred among 94,845 CVD patients and 368,695 non-CVD individuals (Incidence rate: 25.62 vs. 15.41 per 1000 person-years). Individuals with prior CVD exhibited higher overall cancer risk (HR 1.14, 95% CI 1.12-1.17, p < 0.001), and we observed consistently higher cancer risk after adjusting for competing risk from non-cancer deaths. The effect size of CVD on cancer risk was greater among younger individuals (< 65 years) than those ≥ 65 years (p for interaction < 0.001). The meta-analysis included 47 population-based cohort studies where a total of 1.49 million cancer cases were documented among over 45 million participants (9.49 million CVD patients). A 13% higher risk of overall cancer was observed among individuals with prior CVD (pooled RR 1.13, 95% CI 1.11-1.15, p < 0.001). The associations remained significant between various CVD subtypes and cancer risk at multiple sites.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study identified a significantly higher cancer risk among individuals with CVD conditions compared with the non-CVD population, underpinning the need for continued cancer surveillance among CVD patients and further exploration of the possible etiological relation between CVD and cancer.

Characteristics of first-time users of the nursing small-scale multifunctional home care service: a pooled cross-sectional study using Japanese long-term care insurance claims data from 2012 to 2019

OBJECTIVES

In April 2012, the Japanese government launched a new nursing service called the nursing small-scale multifunctional home care (NSMHC) to meet the nursing care demands of individuals with moderate-to-severe activities of daily living (ADLs) dysfunction and who require medical care, thereby allowing them to continue living in the community. We aimed to preliminarily analyse the characteristics of first-time users of NSMHC service.

DESIGN

This pooled cross-sectional study used the Japanese long-term care insurance (LTCI) claims data from the users' first use of NSMHC (from April 2012 to December 2019).

SETTING

NSMHC includes nursing home visits, home care, daycare, overnight stays and medical treatment.

PARTICIPANTS

The study population included LTCI beneficiaries who received their first long-term care requirement certification in Japan from April 2012 onwards, died between April 2012 and December 2019, and used any LTCI service at least once.

RESULTS

Among the 836 563 individuals who used any LTCI service at least once, 3957 (0.47%) used NSMHC. We analysed 3634 individuals without any missing data regarding long-term care requirement certification. Most individuals were aged 80 years or older, with 64.3% requiring care level 3 or above, indicating complete assistance with ADLs. Regarding ADLs in individuals with dementia, 70.6% were at level 2 or below, indicating they can live almost independently even with dementia. A large proportion of NSMHC users availed the service approximately 6 months before death, with no prior use of any LTCI services; they continued using the service for around 4 months, although some people continued to use NSMHC until their month of death.

CONCLUSIONS

Using individual data on nationwide LTCI, we described the characteristics of first-time users of NSMHC among those who died within 7.5 years from the first certification of care needs. Further studies are needed to investigate the effect of NSMHC use on user outcomes.

Sex Differences in the Association Between Depression and Incident Cardiovascular Disease

Background

Depression is a known risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD), but the potential sex differences in this association remain unclear.

Objectives

The aim of this study was to investigate the association between depression and subsequent CVD events, and to explore potential sex differences.

Methods

The authors conducted a retrospective analysis using the JMDC Claims Database between 2005 and 2022. The study population included 4,125,720 individuals aged 18 to 75 years without a history of cardiovascular disease or renal failure and missing data at baseline. Participants were followed up for a mean of 1,288 days to assess the association between depression and subsequent CVD events, such as myocardial infarction, angina pectoris, stroke, heart failure, and atrial fibrillation.

Results

Our analysis revealed a significant association between depression and subsequent composite CVD events in both men and women, with a stronger association observed in women. The HR for the composite endpoint was 1.64 (95% CI: 1.59-1.70) in women and 1.39 (95% CI: 1.35-1.42) in men after multivariable adjustment (P for interaction <0.001). Furthermore, the individual components of the composite endpoint were also associated with depression in both men and women, each of which was also observed to be more strongly associated in women.

Conclusions

Our study provides evidence of a significant association between depression and subsequent CVD events in both men and women, with a more pronounced association observed in women. These findings highlight the importance of addressing depression and tailoring prevention and management strategies according to sex-specific factors.

Sex Differences in the Relationship Between Schizophrenia and the Development of Cardiovascular Disease

BACKGROUND

There are few data on sex differences in the association between schizophrenia and the development of cardiovascular disease (CVD). We sought to clarify the relationship of schizophrenia with the risk of developing CVDs and to explore the potential modification effect of sex differences.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We conducted a retrospective analysis using the JMDC Claims Database between 2005 and 2022. The study population included 4 124 508 individuals aged 18 to 75 years without a history of CVD or renal replacement therapy. The primary end point is defined as a composite end point that includes myocardial infarction, angina pectoris, stroke, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, and pulmonary thromboembolism. During a mean follow-up of 1288±1001 days, we observed 182 158 composite end points. We found a significant relationship of schizophrenia with a greater risk of developing composite CVD events in both men and women, with a stronger association observed in women. The hazard ratio for the composite end point was 1.63 (95% CI, 1.52-1.74) in women and 1.42 (95% CI, 1.33-1.52) in men after multivariable adjustment (P for interaction=0.0049). This sex-specific difference in the association between schizophrenia and incident CVD was consistent for angina pectoris, heart failure, and atrial fibrillation.

CONCLUSIONS

Our analysis using a large-scale epidemiologic cohort demonstrated that the association between schizophrenia and subsequent CVD events was more pronounced in women than in men, suggesting the clinical importance of addressing schizophrenia and tailoring the CVD prevention strategy based on sex-specific factors.

Facility staffing associated with potentially avoidable hospitalizations in nursing home residents in Japan: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Wide variations in facility staffing may lead to differences in care, and consequently, adverse outcomes such as hospitalizations. However, few studies focused on types of occupations. Therefore, we aimed to examine the association between a wide variety of facility staffing and potentially avoidable hospitalizations of nursing home residents in Japan.

METHODS

In this retrospective cohort study using long-term care and medical insurance claims data in Ibaraki Prefecture from April 2018 to March 2019, we identified individuals aged 65 years and above who were newly admitted to nursing homes. In addition, facility characteristic data were obtained from the long-term care insurance service disclosure system. Subsequently, we conducted a multivariable Cox regression analysis and evaluated the association between facility staffing and potentially avoidable hospitalizations.

RESULTS

A total of 2909 residents from 235 nursing homes were included. The cumulative incidence of potentially avoidable hospitalizations at 180 days was 14.2% (95% confidence interval [CI] 12.7-15.8). Facilities with full-time physicians (adjusted hazard ratio [HR]: 0.59, 95% CI: 0.37-0.94) and a higher number of dietitians (HR: 0.72, 95% CI: 0.54-0.97) were significantly associated with a lower likelihood of potentially avoidable hospitalizations. In contrast, having nurses or trained caregivers during the night shift (HR: 1.72, 95% CI: 1.25-2.36) and a higher number of care managers (HR: 1.37, 95% CI: 1.03-1.83) were significantly associated with a high probability of potentially avoidable hospitalizations.

CONCLUSIONS

We revealed that variations in facility staffing were associated with potentially avoidable hospitalizations. The results suggest that optimal allocation of human resources, such as dietitians and physicians, may be essential to reduce potentially avoidable hospitalizations. To provide appropriate care to nursing home residents, it is necessary to establish a system to effectively allocate limited resources. Further research is warranted on the causal relationship between staff allocation and unnecessary hospitalizations, considering the confounding factors.

Sex Differences in the Association Between Hypertension and Incident Atrial Fibrillation

Background Limited evidence is available on sex differences about the association between hypertension and incident atrial fibrillation (AF). Methods and Results We used a nationwide health checkup and claims database to analyze 3 383 738 adults (median age, 43 (36-51) years, 57.4% men). We investigated the relationship between hypertension and incident AF in men and women using a Cox regression model. We used restricted cubic spline functions to identify the association of blood pressure (BP) as a continuous parameter with incident AF. We categorized the men and women into 4 groups according to the 2017 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association BP guidelines. During a mean follow-up of 1199±950 days, 13 263 AF diagnoses were recorded. The incidence (95% CI) of AF was 15.8 (15.5-16.1) per 10 000 person-years in men and 6.1 (5.9-6.3) per 10 000 person-years in women. Compared with normal BP, elevated BP, stage 1 hypertension, and stage 2 hypertension were associated with an increased risk AF in both men and women. However, the hazard ratios were greater in women than in men, and the P value for interactions in the multivariable model was 0.0076. The models using restricted cubic spline showed that the risk of AF associated with elevated systolic BP increased steeply above an approximate threshold of systolic BP of 130 mm Hg in men and 100 mm Hg in women. Although our primary findings were consistent across subgroup analyses, this association was most significant in younger individuals. Conclusions Although the incidence of AF was higher in men, the association between hypertension and incident AF was more pronounced in women than in men, suggesting a potential sex difference in the relationship between hypertension and incident AF.

Incidence and risk factors for norovirus-related diarrhea in Japanese geriatric intermediate care facilities: A prospective cohort study

AIM

The risk of developing infectious diarrhea among elderly residents at Japanese geriatric intermediate care facilities is unclear. We investigated the incidence rate and risk factors of norovirus-related diarrhea at such facilities.

METHODS

This prospective cohort study followed 1727 residents from November 2018 to April 2020 at 10 geriatric intermediate care facilities in Osaka, Japan regarding the occurrence of diarrhea. Resident data were collected from their medical records using structured forms at two to three of the following three time points: at recruitment, if they developed diarrhea, and when they left the facility. Residents who developed diarrhea were tested using rapid diagnostic tests for norovirus. Cox proportional hazard model was employed to hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) to estimate the risk factors for norovirus-related diarrhea.

RESULTS

During the study period, 74 residents developed diarrhea, 13 of whom were norovirus positive. The incidence rate of norovirus-related diarrhea was 10.11 per 1000 person-years (95% CI: 4.61-15.61). In terms of risk factors, people with care-needs level 3 were at a higher risk for developing norovirus-related diarrhea (adjusted HR [aHR] = 7.35, 95% CI: 1.45-37.30). Residents with hypertension (aHR = 3.41, 95% CI: 1.05-11.04) or stroke (aHR = 8.84, 95% CI: 2.46-31.83), and those who walked with canes (aHR = 16.68, 95% CI: 1.35-206.52) also had a significantly higher risk for norovirus-related diarrhea.

CONCLUSIONS

Throughout the study period, the incidence of development of diarrhea was low. Care-needs level 3, stroke, hypertension and use of a cane were identified as risk factors for norovirus-related diarrhea in Japanese geriatric intermediate care facilities. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2023; 23: 179-187.

Age-Dependent Association Between Modifiable Risk Factors and Incident Cardiovascular Disease

Background There have been limited data examining the age-dependent relationship of wide-range risk factors with the incidence of each subtype of cardiovascular disease (CVD) event. We assessed age-related associations between modifiable risk factors and the incidence of CVD. Methods and Results We analyzed 3 027 839 participants without a CVD history enrolled in the JMDC Claims Database (mean age, 44.8±11.0 years; 57.6% men). Each participant was categorized as aged 20 to 49 years (n=2 008 559), 50 to 59 years (n=712 273), and 60 to 75 years (n=307 007). Using Cox proportional hazards models and the relative risk reduction, we identified associations between risk factors and incident CVD, consisting of myocardial infarction, angina pectoris, stroke, and heart failure (HF). We assessed whether the association of risk factors for developing CVD would be modified by age category. Over a mean follow-up of 1133 days, 6315 myocardial infarction, 56 447 angina pectoris, 28 079 stroke, and 56 369 HF events were recorded. The incidence of myocardial infarction, angina pectoris, stroke, and HF increased with age category. Hazard ratios of obesity, hypertension, and diabetes in the multivariable Cox regression analyses for myocardial infarction, angina pectoris, stroke, and HF decreased with age category. The relative risk reduction of obesity, hypertension, and diabetes for CVD events decreased with age category. For example, the relative risk reduction of hypertension for HF decreased from 59.2% in participants aged 20 to 49 years to 38.1% in those aged 60 to 75 years. Conclusions The contribution of modifiable risk factor to the development of CVD is greater in younger compared with older individuals. Preventive efforts for risk factor modification may be more effective in younger people.

Intermediate care in caring for dementia, the point of view of general practitioners: A key informant survey across Europe

Background

Intermediate care is often defined as healthcare occurring somewhere between traditional primary (community) and secondary (hospital) care settings. High quality intermediate care is important in dementia, may prevent caregiver burnout and also lead to optimal care for people with dementia. However, very little is known about the point of intermediate care for persons with dementia in Europe.

Research questions

What intermediate care services exist and how are they utilized in the care of people with dementia in Europe?

Objective

This study aims at describing the point of view of General Practitioners on intermediate care services for people with dementia across Europe.

Methods

Key informant survey was sent to GPs via a self-developed questionnaire with space for open ended comments. 16 European countries participated to this cross-sectional mixed method study. Given the volunteer nature of the study, no minimum sample size requirements were applied to participation. Convenience sampling technique was used to address variations due to regional variations and regulations within the same country. Descriptive analyses of all intermediate care facilities groups by countries were performed. Qualitative analyses approach was used for the optional-free text to exemplify and/or complete the reasons contained in the closed response categories.

Results

The questionnaire was sent to 16 European countries. 583 questionnaires were analyzed. The responding physicians were 48 (± 11) years old on average and they had been in practice for an average of 18 (+ /11) years. The types of intermediate care considered were integrated at-home services, respite and relief services, day care centers and nursing homes. Their availability was considered very inhomogeneous by the majority of respondents. The main benefits of intermediate care cited were better medical care for the patient (78%), better quality of life for the caregiver (67%), prevention of the caregiver burden (73%) and a break for the caregiver (59%). The reported difficulties were: accessing these facilities due to limited financial support (76%) and cumbersome administrative procedures (67%). Many other facets of our findings were captured in the qualitative themes that emerged.

Conclusion

Intermediate care in Europe is diverse and heterogeneous. Major concerns of GPs are about the cost issues and the cumbersome administrative procedures to access them.

Effects of the 2018 Japan Floods on long-term care insurance costs in Japan: retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Climate change has increased the frequency and severity of torrential rains and floods around the world. Estimating the costs of these disasters is one of the five global research priorities identified by WHO. The 2018 Japan Floods hit western Japan causing extensive destruction and many deaths, especially among vulnerable elderly. Such affected elderly would need long-term care due to the various health problems caused by the disaster. A Long-Term Care Insurance (LTCI) system provides care services in Japan. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of the 2018 Japan Floods on LTCI costs and service utilization.

METHODS

The participants of this retrospective cohort study were all verified persons utilizing LTCI services in Hiroshima, Okayama and Ehime prefectures. The observation period was from 2 months before to 6 months after the disaster. We used Generalized Estimating Equations (GEEs) to examine the association between disaster status (victims or non-victims) and the monthly total costs of LTCI service (with gamma-distribution/log-link) by residential environment (home or facility). Among home residents, we also examined each service utilization (home-based service, short-stay service and facility service), using the GEEs. After the GEEs, we estimated Average Marginal Effects (AME) over all observation periods by months as the attributable disaster effect.

RESULTS

The total number of participants was 279,578. There were 3024 flood victims. The disaster was associated with significantly higher total costs. The AME for home residents at 2 months after was $214 (Standard Error (SE): 12, p < 0.001), which was the highest through the observation period. Among facility residents, the AME immediately after the disaster increased by up to $850 (SE: 29, p < 0.001). The service utilization among home residents showed a different trend for each service. The AME of home-based services decreased by up to - 15.2% (SE:1.3, p < 0.001). The AME for short-stay service increased by up to 8.2% (SE: 0.9, p < 0.001) and the AME for facility service increased by up to 7.4% (SE: 0.7, p < 0.001), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The 2018 Japan Floods caused an increase in LTCI costs and the utilization of short-stay and facility services, and a decrease in utilization of home-based services.

The impact of additional payments on functional decline among long-term care health facility residents in Japan

Background

Additional payment approach has been one of the most important incentives in long-term care (LTC) systems for the past 20 years in Japan.

Objective

To estimate the effect of additional payments on functional decline in long-term care health facility (LTCHF) residents of Japan.

Design

A 24-month retrospective cohort study.

Setting and subjects

Residents aged ≥65 years who were newly admitted to LTCHFs in the 2014 fiscal year.

Methods

National LTC claims data were linked to the survey of institutions and establishments for LTC. Competing risk regression was performed with functional decline as the primary outcome, and additional payments as exposure, controlling for individual and facility characteristics. The level of LTC needs certified in the LTC insurance system was applied as a proxy of functional ability. Death, hospitalisation, discharge to home and transfer to other LTC facilities were treated as competing events. Individual- and facility-level additional payments were presented as binary variables: being reimbursed or not during the follow-up period.

Results

At baseline, 146,311 residents from 3,724 LTCHFs were included. The vast majority of additional payments were associated with a lower risk of functional decline at follow-up. At the individual level, additional payment for pre/post admission instructions had the strongest association with a lower risk of functional decline. Despite this, only 8% of residents were reimbursed for this additional payment. At the facility level, residents in LTCHFs with additional payments for support for home-life resumption and nutritional management were associated with a decreased risk of functional decline.

Conclusions

The results of our study may be of particular interest to policymakers in monitoring and evaluating additional payment approaches and provide insight into improving quality of care.

Comparison of Japanese Centenarians' and Noncentenarians' Medical Expenditures in the Last Year of Life

IMPORTANCE

Although research has shown that centenarians tend to experience shorter periods of serious illness compared with other age groups, few studies have focused on the medical expenditures of centenarians as a potential indicator of the scale of medical resources used in their last year of life.

OBJECTIVE

To compare Japanese centenarians' and noncentenarians' monthly medical expenditures during the year before death according to age and sex.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This retrospective cohort study used linked national health and long-term care insurance data collected from April 2013 to March 2018 in Nara Prefecture, Japan, for residents aged 75 years or older who were insured under the Medical Care System for older adults and died between April 2014 and March 2018. Data were analyzed from April 2013 to March 2018.

EXPOSURES

Age of 100 years or older (centenarians) vs 75 to 99 years (noncentenarians).

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The numbers of unique inpatients and outpatients and medical expenditures related to decedents' hospitalization and outpatient care were extracted and analyzed based on sex and age group. The Jonckheere-Terpstra test was used to identify trends in unadjusted medical expenditures by age group, and generalized estimating equations were used to estimate monthly median expenditures by age group with adjustment for comorbidity burden and functional status.

RESULTS

Of 34 317 patients aged 75 to 109 years (16 202 men [47.2%] and 18 115 women [52.8%]) who died between April 2014 and March 2018, 872 (2.5%) were aged 100 to 104 years (131 men [15.0%] and 741 women [85.0%]) and 78 (0.2%) were aged 105 to 109 years (fewer than 10 were men). The analysis of unadjusted medical expenditures in the last year of life showed a significant trend of lower expenditures for the older age groups; the median adjusted total expenditures during the 30 days before death by age group were $6784 (IQR, $4884-$9703) for ages 75 to 79 years, $5894 (IQR, $4292-$8536) for 80 to 84 years, $5069 (IQR, $3676-$7150) for 85 to 89 years, $4205 (IQR, $3085-$5914) for 90 to 94 years, $3522 (IQR, $2626-$4861) for 95 to 99 years, $2898 (IQR, $2241-$3835) for 100 to 104 years, and $2626 (IQR, $1938-$3527) for 105 to 109 years. The proportion of inpatients among all patients in the year before death also decreased with increasing age: 4311 of all 4551 patients aged 75 to 79 years (94.7%); 43 of all 78 patients aged 105 to 109 years (55.1%); 2831 of 2956 men aged 75 to 79 years (95.8%); 50.0% of men aged 105 to 109 years (the number is not reported owing to the small sample size); 1480 of 1595 women aged 75 to 79 years (92.8%); and 55.7% of women aged 105 to 109 years (the number of women is not reported to prevent back-calculation of the number of men). Specifically, 274 of 872 patients aged 100 to 104 years (31.4%) and 35 of 78 patients aged 105 to 109 years (44.9%) had not been admitted to a hospital in the year before death.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

This cohort study found that medical expenditures in the last year of life tended to be lower for centenarians than for noncentenarians aged 75 years or older in Japan. The proportion of inpatients also decreased with increasing age. These findings may inform future health care services coverage and policies for centenarians.

Introduction to Survival Analysis in the Presence of Competing Risks

Survival analysis is often used in studies of clinical epidemiology, but the existence of competing risks has not been adequately considered. Competing risks may hinder observation of the outcome of interest or modify the occurrence of the outcome. In the presence of competing risks, conventional survival analysis leads to biased results. To conduct a survival analysis in the presence of competing risks, researchers should select an appropriate method from the following two options: cause-specific hazard model and subdistribution hazard model. This article explains the issues raised by the presence of competing risks and describes methods to account for competing risks in survival analysis.

Characteristics associated with hospitalization within 30 days of geriatric intermediate care facility admission

AIM

To identify facility-level characteristics associated with hospitalization within 30 days after admission to a geriatric intermediate care facility (GICF) (30-day hospitalization) in Japan.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study used nationwide long-term care insurance claims data and a national survey of long-term geriatric care facilities. The study population was residents admitted to GICFs between October 2016 and February 2018. The outcome variable was 30-day hospitalization. The independent variables were facility-level characteristics such as level of healthcare professionals.

RESULTS

The final sample for analysis comprised 282 991 residents of mean age ± SD, 85.8 ± 7.2 years, of whom 12 814 (4.5%) experienced 30-day hospitalization. In a multivariable logistic generalized estimating equation model adjusted for facility- and resident-level characteristics, and clustering GICFs, the odds of 30-day hospitalization were 0.906 times lower (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.857-0.958) among residents in a GICF with dental hygienist than in those in a facility without. Furthermore, the risk of 30-day hospitalization was lower among residents who had been admitted to a GICF with higher staffing levels of pharmacists (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 0.941, 95% CI 0.899-0.985), registered nurses (aOR 0.931, 95% CI 0.880-0.986), care workers (aOR 0.920, 95% CI 0.879-0.964) and speech-language pathologists (aOR 0.926, 95% CI 0.874-0.982) than in those who had been admitted to a GICF with fewer of these healthcare professionals.

CONCLUSIONS

Transitional care including dental hygienist or higher staffing levels of pharmacists, registered nurses, care workers and speech-language pathologists may be a more effective way to prevent 30-day hospitalization. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2021; 21: 1010-1017.

Japanese National Dementia Plan Is Associated with a Small Shift in Location of Death: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis

Background:

Japan has one of the highest percentages of persons with dementia and hospital deaths in the world. Hospitals are often not equipped to handle the care complexity required for persons with dementia at the end of life. The National Dementia Orange plan aimed to decrease hospital deaths by expanding time in the community.

Objective:

The aim of this study is to evaluate whether the National Dementia Orange Plan is associated with a decrease in hospitals deaths for persons with dementia.

Methods:

We used quarterly, cross-sectional, national death certificate data consisting of the total Japanese dementia population 65 years and older, spanning a period from 2009 to 2016. The primary outcome was quarterly adjusted relative risk rates (aRRR) of dying in hospital, nursing home, home, or elsewhere. An interrupted time series analysis was performed to study the slope change over time. Analyses were adjusted for sex and seasonality.

Results:

149,638 died with dementia. With the implementation of the Orange Plan, death in nursing home (aRRR 1.08, [1.07–1.08], p < 0.001) and elsewhere (aRRR 1.05, [1.05–1.06], p < 0.001) increased over time compared to hospital death. No changes were found in death at home.

Conclusion:

This study provides evidence that the National Dementia Orange plan was associated with a small increase in death in nursing home and elsewhere. Hospital death remained the primary location of death. End-of-life strategies should be expanded in national dementia policies to increase aging in the community until death.

Effectiveness of facility-based transition care on health-related outcomes for older adults: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Although Transition Care Programmes (TCP) are designed to assist older adults to regain functional ability after hospitalisation, it is unclear whether TCP improve older adults' health-related outcomes.

OBJECTIVES

The objective of the review was to synthesise the best available evidence for the effectiveness of TCP on health-related outcomes for older adults admitted to a transition care facility after hospitalisation.

METHODS

Searches were conducted using the databases PubMed, AMED (Ovid), Embase (Ovid), PscyINFO (Ovid) and CINAHL (Full text) and grey literature from January 2000 to May 2020 in English only. Studies that reported health-related outcomes of older adults (aged 65 and above) who received TCP in a facility setting were deemed eligible for inclusion following critical appraisal by two reviewers. Data were pooled in meta-analysis where possible, or reported narratively.

RESULTS

A total of 21 studies from seven countries [(n = 5 RCT, n = 16 observational cohort studies) participants' mean age 80.2 (±8.3)] were included. Pooled analysis (2069 participants, 7 studies) demonstrated that 80% of older adults undertaking TCP were discharged home [95% CI (0.78-0.82, p < 0.001), I² = 21.99%, very low GRADE evidence]. Proportions of older adults discharged home varied widely between countries (33.3%-86.4%). There was a significant improvement in ability to perform activities of daily living (2001 participants, 7 studies) as measured by the Modified Barthel Index [17.65 points (95% CI 5.68-29.62, p = 0.004), I²  = 0.00%, very low GRADE evidence].

CONCLUSIONS

The proportion of older adults discharged home from TCP compared to other discharge destinations differs between countries. This could be due to the intensity of the rehabilitation delivered and the maximum length of stay allowed prior to discharge.

IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE

Future studies that comprehensively evaluate the efficacy of TCP on health-related outcomes including quality of life are required. Further investigation is required to identify which aspects of TCP affect successful discharge home.

The use of Japanese long-term care insurance claims in health services research: current status and perspectives

This study aims to evaluate the current status and perspectives on the use of Japanese long-term care (LTC) claims databases for research. We conducted a comprehensive literature search of PubMed and the Japan Medical Abstracts Society (Ichushi-Web), focusing on LTC claims data analyses published between 2000 and 2020. We summarized the study characteristics, database characteristics, and the research areas related to health services that were studied. In total, 86 journal articles (12 in Japanese and 74 in English) were included in our review. A particularly remarkable increase in the number of publications from 2016 to 2020 was observed. We extracted more publications with combined databases (n = 64) than those that only used a single source of the LTC claims databases (n = 22). More than half of the studies analyzed healthcare expenditure, healthcare utilization, and quality of care which were relevant to health services research. The most frequently mentioned limitation was the lack of validation in variables stored in the LTC claims databases. In conclusion, the LTC claims databases could serve as important sources of information for the evaluation of healthcare delivery, quality of care, and LTC policy.

Identifying the Association Between Older Adults' Characteristics and Their Health-Related Outcomes in a Transition Care Setting: A Retrospective Audit

Introduction: Continued evaluation of Transition Care Programs (TCP) is essential to improving older adults' outcomes and can guide which older adults may benefit from undertaking TCP. The aim of this study was to audit a transition care service to identify the association between the characteristics of older adults undertaking a facility-based TCP and (i) discharge destination and (ii) functional improvement.

Materials and methods: An audit (n = 169) of older adults aged 60 years and above who completed a facility-based TCP in Australia was conducted. Outcomes audited were performance of activities of daily living (ADL) measured using the Modified Barthel Index (MBI) and discharge destination. Data were analyzed using logistic regression and linear mixed modeling.

Results: Older adults [mean age 84.2 (±8.3) years] had a median TCP stay of 38 days. Fifty-four older adults (32.0%) were discharged home, 20 (11.8%) were readmitted to hospital and 93 (55%) were admitted to permanent residential aged care. Having no cognitive impairment [OR = 0.41 (95% CI 0.18-0.93)], being independent with ADL at admission [OR = 0.41 (95% CI 0.16-1.00)] and a pre-planned team goal of home discharge [OR = 24.98 (95% CI 5.47-114.15)] was significantly associated with discharge home. Cases discharged home showed greater improvement in functional ability [MBI 21.3 points (95% CI 17.0-25.6)] compared to cases discharged to other destinations [MBI 9.6 points (95% CI 6.5-12.7)].

Conclusion: Auditing a facility-based TCP identified that older adults who were independent in ADL and had good cognitive levels were more likely to be discharged home. Older adults with cognitive impairment also made clinically significant functional improvements.

Association of Blood Pressure Classification Using the 2017 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Blood Pressure Guideline With Risk of Heart Failure and Atrial Fibrillation

BACKGROUND

Heart failure (HF) and atrial fibrillation (AF) are growing in prevalence worldwide. Few studies have assessed to what extent stage 1 hypertension in the 2017 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association blood pressure (BP) guidelines is associated with incident HF and AF.

METHODS

Analyses were conducted with a nationwide health claims database collected in the JMDC Claims Database between 2005 and 2018 (n=2 196 437; mean age, 44.0±10.9 years; 58.4% men). No participants were taking antihypertensive medication or had a known history of cardiovascular disease. Each participant was categorized as having normal BP (systolic BP <120 mm Hg and diastolic BP <80 mm Hg; n=1 155 885), elevated BP (systolic BP 120-129 mm Hg and diastolic BP <80 mm Hg; n=337 390), stage 1 hypertension (systolic BP 130-139 mm Hg or diastolic BP 80-89 mm Hg; n=459 820), or stage 2 hypertension (systolic BP ≥140 mm Hg or diastolic BP ≥90 mm Hg; n=243 342). Using Cox proportional hazards models, we identified associations between BP groups and HF/AF events. We also calculated the population attributable fractions to estimate the proportion of HF and AF events that would be preventable if participants with stage 1 and stage 2 hypertension were to have normal BP.

RESULTS

Over a mean follow-up of 1112±854 days, 28 056 incident HF and 7774 incident AF events occurred. After multivariable adjustment, hazard ratios for HF and AF events were 1.10 (95% CI, 1.05-1.15) and 1.07 (95% CI, 0.99-1.17), respectively, for elevated BP; 1.30 (95% CI, 1.26-1.35) and 1.21 (95% CI, 1.13-1.29), respectively, for stage 1 hypertension; and 2.05 (95% CI, 1.97-2.13) and 1.52 (95% CI, 1.41-1.64), respectively, for stage 2 hypertension versus normal BP. Population attributable fractions for HF associated with stage 1 and stage 2 hypertension were 23.2% (95% CI, 20.3%-26.0%) and 51.2% (95% CI, 49.2%-53.1%), respectively. The population attributable fractions for AF associated with stage 1 and stage 2 hypertension were 17.4% (95% CI, 11.5%-22.9%) and 34.3% (95% CI, 29.1%-39.2%), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Both stage 1 hypertension and stage 2 hypertension were associated with a greater incidence of HF and AF in the general population. The American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association BP classification system may help identify adults at higher risk for HF and AF events.

Trajectories of Long-Term Care Expenditure During the Last 5 Years of Life in Japan: A Nationwide Retrospective Cohort Study

OBJECTIVES

Despite the significant utilization of long-term care (LTC) services at the end of life, evidence on the trajectory of LTC expenditure in later life is scarce. This study aims to identify distinct trajectories of LTC expenditure in the last 5 years of life and to examine whether these trajectories differ according to cause of death.

DESIGN

A nationwide retrospective longitudinal cohort study based on linked data of National LTC Claims and the Japan's National Vital Statistic.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

Participants comprised decedents aged 70 years or older and who died in 2017.

METHODS

We assessed 5 years of monthly LTC expenditure among participants and applied group-based trajectory model to identify distinct trajectories of LTC expenditure. Subsequently multinominal logistic regression analysis was performed to investigate how these trajectories vary according to cause of death.

RESULTS

Among 1,124,335 decedents, 4 distinct trajectories of LTC expenditure were identified: persistently low (58.5%), late increase (9.8%), progressive increase then late decrease (8.8%), and persistently high (22.9%). Approximately 80.7% of total LTC expenditure was spent by the persistently high group. After adjustment for age and sex; deaths due to age-related physical debility and dementia were associated with persistently high LTC expenditure.

CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS

Ongoing discussions of LTC policy and reducing LTC expenditure may be more effective when emphasizing persistently high spenders. In addition, budget allocation for LTC at the end of life should be combined with data for health conditions.

Validating care-needs level against self-reported measures of functioning, disability and sarcopenia among Japanese patients receiving home medical care: The Zaitaku Evaluative Initiatives and Outcome Study

AIM

This study aimed to examine the validity of the care-needs levels classified in Japan's long-term care insurance system (LTCI-CNLs) when compared with patients' self-perceived functioning, disability and physical performance among patients receiving home medical care.

METHODS

This was a multicenter cross-sectional study in Japan. Patients who were receiving continuous home medical care and who could respond to the questionnaire were enrolled in this study. In addition to the LTCI-CNLs, the 12-item version of the World Health Organization Disability Assessment Schedule 2.0 (WHODAS 2.0) and the SARC-F were used to measure functioning, disability and physical performance (sarcopenia). In addition, correlations and associations of the LTCI-CNLs with the WHODAS 2.0 and SARC-F were analyzed using Spearman correlations and linear mixed models.

RESULTS

Data from 181 patients were included in the analyses. The LTCI-CNLs varied, ranging from support level 1 (5.5%) to care-needs level 5 (10.5%), with care-needs level 2 being the most prevalent (24.9%). Moderate correlations of the LTCI-CNLs with the WHODAS 2.0 and SARC-F were found (ρ = 0.58 and 0.44, respectively). Although WHODAS 2.0 and SARC-F scores varied within each LTCI-CNL, predicted WHODAS 2.0 and SARC-F scores increased as LTCI-CNL increased. Dementia was not associated with WHODAS 2.0 or SARC-F.

CONCLUSIONS

The LTCI-CNLs was associated with self-reported functioning, disability and physical performance among home medical care patients. Future studies can use the LTCI-CNLs as an outcome variable for specific care approaches or as a proxy covariate for casemix status. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2021; 21: 229-237.

Effects of facility-based transition care programs on health-related outcomes in older adults: a systematic review protocol

OBJECTIVE

The objective of the review is to synthesize the best available evidence on the effects of transition care rehabilitation programs on health-related outcomes in older adults admitted to a transition care facility.

INTRODUCTION

Approximately 30% of older adults admitted to hospital experience functional decline after hospital discharge. To enable older adults to return to independent community living after hospitalization, transition care programs (TCPs) that focus on promoting safe recovery and maximizing older adults' functional ability have been developed. Limited studies have examined whether undertaking TCPs after hospitalization result in improved health-related outcomes in older adults compared to usual discharge care.

INCLUSION CRITERIA

Studies that include participants 65 years of age or older, deliver TCPs in a facility-based setting, and report health-related outcomes will be included. Randomized and quasi-controlled study designs as well as observational cohort designs with pre-post outcomes will be included.

METHODS

A three-step search strategy will be utilized. Databases that will be searched are PubMed, CINAHL (EBSCO), AMED (Ovid), PsycINFO, and Embase (Ovid). Studies published after 2000 will be included. Results of the search strategy will be presented using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses (PRISMA) flow diagram. Data extracted will include population characteristics, study design, duration, and intensity of the TCP, and health-related outcomes significant to the review question, including the discharge destination from TCPs (independent community living, residential aged care, or hospital). Quantitative data, where possible, will be pooled in statistical meta-analysis.

SYSTEMATIC REVIEW REGISTRATION NUMBER

PROSPERO CRD42020177623.

The Long-Term Care Insurance System in Japan: Past, Present, and Future

The Japanese population is rapidly aging. The proportion of people aged ≥65 was 27.3% in 2016, the highest in the world. Japan achieved universal health coverage for medical care in 1961 with the introduction of the National Health Insurance (NHI) system. However, increasing expenditure on inpatient care for old people became a significant issue in society. At that time, tax-supported in-home services were mainly for old people with low incomes and little care given by family. To tackle these problems, universal health coverage for long-term care was introduced in 2000 under the Long-Term Care Insurance (LTCI) system. People aged ≥65 who satisfied the eligibility criteria and those aged 40–64 with age-related diseases are entitled to receive long-term care services at home or in facilities, irrespective of income level and availability of family caregiving. The practical benefits in kind under the LTCI system for family caregivers have been demonstrated. However, because of a recent increase in long-term care costs, especially facility-based costs, it may be necessary to give more support to family (informal) caregivers who participate in home-based long-term care. Health services research using nationwide claims data would help sustain the LTCI system through evidence-based policymaking. Recent studies have explored how to prevent deterioration of care need levels among residents of long-term care welfare facilities and how to promote a shift from facility-based to home-based long-term care services. By 2025, as the baby boomer generation is projected to reach the age of 75, the Japanese government is planning to establish a community-based integrated care system. Harmonization between long-term care and medical care, involving the informal sector and nonprofit organizations, would mitigate the increasing cost of both the NHI and LTCI systems. To achieve this, more research is warranted to understand how long-term care, medical care, and informal care can be effectively integrated in the community.