New tuberculosis vaccines: advances in clinical development and modelling

Adjunctive beneficial effect of c-di-GMP, a STING agonist, in enhancing protective efficacy of TLR4-adjuvanted tuberculosis subunit vaccine formulations

BACKGROUND

Effective subunit vaccine development requires selecting appropriate adjuvant formulations to trigger desired adaptive immune responses. This study explores the immunogenicity and tuberculosis (TB) vaccine potential of antigens (Ags) combined with Toll-like receptor 4 (TLR4) adjuvants and a stimulator of interferon genes (STING) agonist.

METHODS

In this work, we investigated the combination of Ags with TLR4 adjuvants (monophosphoryl lipid A / dimethyldioctadecylammonium bromide; MPL/DDA or glucopyranosyl lipid adjuvant-stable emulsion; GLA-SE) and a STING agonist, c-di-GMP (CDG). Mice were immunized three times by intramuscular injections at 3-week intervals. The effects of integrating Ags in these adjuvant formulations on the immune response were evaluated, focusing on the generation of Th1-biased, polyfunctional Ag-specific CD4+ T cells and their localization in the lung and spleen. To assess protection, immunized mice were aerogenically challenged with either conventional or ultra-low doses of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) 4 weeks after the last immunization. Subsequently, bacterial load and pulmonary inflammation were assessed.

RESULTS

Integrating ESAT6 Ag in TLR4 and CDG adjuvant formulations remarkably boosted Th1-biased, polyfunctional ESAT6-specific CD4+ T cells in the lungs and spleen, providing durable protection against Mtb infection. The inclusion of CDG promoted mucosal localization of ESAT6-specific CD4+ T cells resembling resident memory phenotypes in the lung parenchyma and increased Ag-specific CD4+ T cells in lung vasculature. Immunization with another vaccine Ag candidate, Ag85B, in GLA-SE plus CDG similarly increased Ag85B-specific CD4+ T cells in the spleen and both lung compartments. Following ultra-low dose Mtb challenge, ESAT6 or Ag85B/GLA-SE/CDG immunizations significantly reduced bacterial loads compared to non-, Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG)-, and ESAT6 or Ag85B/GLA-SE-immunized groups. Importantly, the inclusion of CDG decreased killer cell lectin-like receptor subfamily G member 1 (KLRG1) expression among Ag-specific CD4+ T cells in the lung, correlating with enhanced lung-homing evidenced by expanded lung parenchyma Ag-specific CD4+ T cells, including less-differentiated Th1 cells.

CONCLUSIONS

This study highlights that CDG, when used in combination with TLR4 adjuvants, enhances long-term protective immunity, offering a promising strategy for subunit TB vaccine development.

Scientometric analysis of Mycobacterium tuberculosis revaccination: Dynamics, impact and analysis of collaborative networks

BACKGROUND

Mycobacterium tuberculosis (M. tuberculosis) is an infectious disease that remains a significant global health problem. Despite efforts to reduce the disease, the disease remains prevalent in many parts of the world. This study aims to analyse the dynamics, impact and analysis of collaborative networks in revaccination against M. tuberculosis through a scientometric study in Scopus (2018-2024).

METHODS

This study is retrospective, descriptive and observational, and everything was carried out with a scientometric approach in which the unit of analysis was all publications in journals indexed in the Scopus database between 2018 and 2024, without language limitation. To collect the articles, an advanced search strategy was carried out in the Scopus database. Specific search criteria were defined using combinations of key terms such as 'revaccination' and 'M. tuberculosis', articulated through Boolean operators to optimize the relevance of the results.

RESULTS

The most productive institution was the University of Cape Town, while University College London had the highest citation impact. Frontiers in Immunology was the most productive journal, with Nature Communications having the highest citation count. The Hatherill Mark was the most prolific author with 17 publications, although the highest h-indexes did not necessarily correspond to the most productive authors. An increase in the number of publications was observed, peaking in 2020 at 52 publications. In terms of collaboration, strong networks were identified between countries such as the United States, the United Kingdom and China, with authors such as Hatherill Mark and Scriba Thomas J. occupying central positions in these networks.

CONCLUSIONS

This scientometric analysis highlights the growing interest in tuberculosis revaccination, with an increase in scientific production and international collaboration. However, the variability in the quality of publications emphasizes the need to promote high-quality research and innovative strategies to improve global health.

Implications of subclinical tuberculosis for vaccine trial design and global effect

Tuberculosis is a leading cause of death from an infectious agent globally. Infectious subclinical tuberculosis accounts for almost half of all tuberculosis cases in national tuberculosis prevalence surveys, and possibly contributes to transmission and might be associated with morbidity. Modelling studies suggest that new tuberculosis vaccines could have substantial health and economic effects, partly based on the assumptions made regarding subclinical tuberculosis. Evaluating the efficacy of prevention of disease tuberculosis vaccines intended for preventing both clinical and subclinical tuberculosis is a priority. Incorporation of subclinical tuberculosis as a composite endpoint in tuberculosis vaccine trials can help to reduce the sample size and duration of follow-up and to evaluate the efficacy of tuberculosis vaccines in preventing clinical and subclinical tuberculosis. Several design options with various benefits, limitations, and ethical considerations are possible in this regard, which would allow for the generation of the evidence needed to estimate the positive global effects of tuberculosis vaccine trials, in addition to informing policy and vaccination strategies.

Feasibility of eliminating tuberculosis by shortening the diagnostic delay: A retrospective analysis and modelling study in China during the pre-COVID-19 era

Objective

Delays in the diagnosis and treatment of pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) can increase the risk of transmission, thereby posing a significant risk to public health. Early diagnosis is considered to play a crucial role in eliminating TB. Rapid testing, active case finding, and health education are effective strategies for reducing tuberculosis diagnosis delays (TDDs). This study aimed to quantitatively compare the impact of reducing the TDD on incidence rates among student and non-student groups, thus exploring the efficacy of shortening the TDD for ending the TB epidemic and providing a reference for achieving the target incidence rate for ending TB.

Methods

We used unsupervised hierarchical clustering analysis and non-parametric tests to characterize the epidemiological characteristics of TDD. Additionally, a dynamic transmission model was used to quantify the impact of shortening the TDD on the incidence rates of TB among the two groups.

Results

There was an initial increase in the TDD, followed by a decrease. Longer TDDs were observed in the northeastern region of China. Farmers, middle and high school students, middle-aged, elderly individuals and males exhibited relatively longer TDDs. A significant reduction in the incidence rate of PTB was observed when the TDD was decreased by 50 %. However, only reducing the TDD among non-students could achieve the goal of ending TB (i.e., achieving a minimum reduction of 63.00 %).

Conclusions

TDD remains a serious risk to public health, and non-students were shown to experience longer TDD. Shortening the TDD is crucial for reducing the incidence rates of TB, especially among non-students. It is essential to develop a highly sensitive and effective system for eliminating TB among non-students.

The ΔfbpAΔsapM candidate vaccine derived from Mycobacterium tuberculosis H37Rv is markedly immunogenic in macrophages and induces robust immunity to tuberculosis in mice

Tuberculosis (TB) remains a significant global health challenge, with approximately 1.5 million deaths per year. The Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccine against TB is used in infants but shows variable protection. Here, we introduce a novel approach using a double gene knockout mutant (DKO) from wild-type Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) targeting fbpA and sapM genes. DKO exhibited enhanced anti-TB gene expression in mouse antigen-presenting cells, activating autophagy and inflammasomes. This heightened immune response improved ex vivo antigen presentation to T cells. Subcutaneous vaccination with DKO led to increased protection against TB in wild-type C57Bl/6 mice, surpassing the protection observed in caspase 1/11-deficient C57Bl/6 mice and highlighting the critical role of inflammasomes in TB protection. The DKO vaccine also generated stronger and longer-lasting protection than the BCG vaccine in C57Bl/6 mice, expanding both CD62L-CCR7-CD44+/-CD127+ effector T cells and CD62L+CCR7+/-CD44+CD127+ central memory T cells. These immune responses correlated with a substantial ≥ 1.7-log10 reduction in Mtb lung burden. The DKO vaccine represents a promising new approach for TB immunization that mediates protection through autophagy and inflammasome pathways.

Modelling the health and economic impacts ofM72/AS01E vaccination and BCG-revaccination: Estimates for South Africa

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis remains a major public health problem in South Africa, with an estimated 300,000 cases and 55,000 deaths in 2021. New tuberculosis vaccines could play an important role in reducing this burden. Phase IIb trials have suggested efficacy of the M72/AS01E vaccine candidate and BCG-revaccination. The potential population impact of these vaccines is unknown.

METHODS

We used an age-stratified transmission model of tuberculosis, calibrated to epidemiological data from South Africa, to estimate the potential health and economic impact of M72/AS01E vaccination and BCG-revaccination. We simulated M72/AS01E vaccination scenarios over the period 2030-2050 and BCG-revaccination scenarios over the period 2025-2050. We explored a range of product characteristics and delivery strategies. We calculated reductions in tuberculosis cases and deaths and costs and cost-effectiveness from health-system and societal perspectives.

FINDINGS

M72/AS01E vaccination may have a larger impact than BCG-revaccination, averting approximately 80% more cases and deaths by 2050. Both vaccines were found to be cost-effective or cost saving (compared to no new vaccine) across a range of vaccine characteristics and delivery strategies from both the health system and societal perspective. The impact of M72/AS01E is dependent on the assumed efficacy of the vaccine in uninfected individuals. Extending BCG-revaccination to HIV-infected individuals on ART increased health impact by approximately 15%, but increased health system costs by approximately 70%.

INTERPRETATION

Our results show that M72/AS01E vaccination or BCG-revaccination could be cost-effective in South Africa. However, there is considerable uncertainty in the estimated impact and costs due to uncertainty in vaccine characteristics and the choice of delivery strategy.

FUNDING

This work was funded by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (INV-001754). This work used the Cirrus UK National Tier-2 HPC Service at EPCC (https://www.cirrus.ac.uk) funded by the University of Edinburgh and EPSRC (EP/P020267/1).

Model-based impact evaluation of new tuberculosis vaccines in aging populations under different modeling scenarios: the case of China

Introduction

The slow descent in TB burden, the COVID-19 pandemic, along with the rise of multidrug-resistant strains of Mycobacterium tuberculosis, seriously threaten TB control and the goals of the End TB strategy. To fight back, several vaccine candidates are under development, with some of them undergoing the phases 2B and 3 of the development pipeline. The impact of these vaccines on the general population needs to be addressed using disease-transmission models, and, in a country like China, which last year ranked third in number of cases worldwide, and where the population is aging at a fast pace, the impact of TB vaccination campaigns may depend heavily upon the age of targeted populations, the mechanistic descriptions of the TB vaccines and the coupling between TB dynamics and demographic evolution.

Methods

In this work, we studied the potential impact of a new TB vaccine in China targeting adolescents (15-19 y.o.) or older adults (60-64 y.o.), according to varying vaccine descriptions that represent reasonable mechanisms of action leading to prevention of disease, or prevention of recurrence, each of them targetting specific routes to TB disease. To measure the influence of the description of the coupling between transmission dynamics and aging in TB transmission models, we explored two different approaches to compute the evolution of the contact matrices, which relate to the spreading among different age strata.

Results

Our findings highlight the dependence of model-based impact estimates on vaccine profiles and the chosen modeling approach for describing the evolution of contact matrices. Our results also show, in line with previous modeling works, that older adult vaccination is a suitable option in China to reduce the incidence of TB as long as the vaccine is able to protect already exposed individuals.

Discussion

This study underscores the importance of considering vaccine characteristics and demographic dynamics in shaping TB control strategies. In this sense, older adult vaccination emerges as a promising avenue for mitigating TB transmission in China but also remarks the need for tailored intervention strategies aligned with demographic trends.

Non-clinical evaluation of local and systemic immunity induced by different vaccination strategies of the candidate tuberculosis vaccine M72/AS01

A new efficacious tuberculosis vaccine targeting adolescents/adults represents an urgent medical need. The M72/AS01E vaccine candidate protected half of the latently-infected adults against progression to pulmonary tuberculosis in a Phase IIb trial (NCT01755598). We report that three immunizations of mice, two weeks apart, with AS01-adjuvanted M72 induced polyfunctional, Th1-cytokine-expressing M72-specific CD4+/CD8+ T cells in blood and lungs, with the highest frequencies in lungs. Antigen-dose reductions across the three vaccinations skewed pulmonary CD4+ T-cell profiles towards IL-17 expression. In blood, reducing antigen and adjuvant doses of only the third injection (to 1/5th or 1/25th of those of the first injections) did not significantly alter CD4+ T-cell/antibody responses; applying a 10-week delay for the fractional third dose enhanced antibody titers. Delaying a full-dose booster enhanced systemic CD4+ T-cell and antibody responses. Cross-reactivity with PPE and non-PPE proteins was assessed, as Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) virulence factors and evasion mechanisms are often associated with PE/PPE proteins, to which Mtb39a (contained in M72) belongs. In silico/in vivo analyses revealed that M72/AS01 induced cross-reactive systemic CD4+ T-cell responses to epitopes in a non-vaccine antigen (putative latency-associated Mtb protein PPE24/Rv1753c). These preclinical data describing novel mechanisms of M72/AS01-induced immunity could guide future clinical development of the vaccine.

Addressing mechanism bias in model-based impact forecasts of new tuberculosis vaccines

In tuberculosis (TB) vaccine development, multiple factors hinder the design and interpretation of the clinical trials used to estimate vaccine efficacy. The complex transmission chain of TB includes multiple routes to disease, making it hard to link the vaccine efficacy observed in a trial to specific protective mechanisms. Here, we present a Bayesian framework to evaluate the compatibility of different vaccine descriptions with clinical trial outcomes, unlocking impact forecasting from vaccines whose specific mechanisms of action are unknown. Applying our method to the analysis of the M72/AS01E vaccine trial -conducted on IGRA+ individuals- as a case study, we found that most plausible models for this vaccine needed to include protection against, at least, two over the three possible routes to active TB classically considered in the literature: namely, primary TB, latent TB reactivation and TB upon re-infection. Gathering new data regarding the impact of TB vaccines in various epidemiological settings would be instrumental to improve our model estimates of the underlying mechanisms.

New tuberculosis vaccines in India: modelling the potential health and economic impacts of adolescent/adult vaccination with M72/AS01E and BCG-revaccination

BACKGROUND

India had an estimated 2.9 million tuberculosis cases and 506 thousand deaths in 2021. Novel vaccines effective in adolescents and adults could reduce this burden. M72/AS01E and BCG-revaccination have recently completed phase IIb trials and estimates of their population-level impact are needed. We estimated the potential health and economic impact of M72/AS01E and BCG-revaccination in India and investigated the impact of variation in vaccine characteristics and delivery strategies.

METHODS

We developed an age-stratified compartmental tuberculosis transmission model for India calibrated to country-specific epidemiology. We projected baseline epidemiology to 2050 assuming no-new-vaccine introduction, and M72/AS01E and BCG-revaccination scenarios over 2025-2050 exploring uncertainty in product characteristics (vaccine efficacy, mechanism of effect, infection status required for vaccine efficacy, duration of protection) and implementation (achieved vaccine coverage and ages targeted). We estimated reductions in tuberculosis cases and deaths by each scenario compared to the no-new-vaccine baseline, as well as costs and cost-effectiveness from health-system and societal perspectives.

RESULTS

M72/AS01E scenarios were predicted to avert 40% more tuberculosis cases and deaths by 2050 compared to BCG-revaccination scenarios. Cost-effectiveness ratios for M72/AS01E vaccines were around seven times higher than BCG-revaccination, but nearly all scenarios were cost-effective. The estimated average incremental cost was US$190 million for M72/AS01E and US$23 million for BCG-revaccination per year. Sources of uncertainty included whether M72/AS01E was efficacious in uninfected individuals at vaccination, and if BCG-revaccination could prevent disease.

CONCLUSIONS

M72/AS01E and BCG-revaccination could be impactful and cost-effective in India. However, there is great uncertainty in impact, especially given the unknowns surrounding the mechanism of effect and infection status required for vaccine efficacy. Greater investment in vaccine development and delivery is needed to resolve these unknowns in vaccine product characteristics.

Is neglect of self-clearance biasing TB vaccine impact estimates?

BACKGROUND

Mathematical modelling has been used extensively to estimate the potential impact of new tuberculosis vaccines, with the majority of existing models assuming that individuals with Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) infection remain at lifelong risk of tuberculosis disease. Recent research provides evidence that self-clearance of Mtb infection may be common, which may affect the potential impact of new vaccines that only take in infected or uninfected individuals. We explored how the inclusion of self-clearance in models of tuberculosis affects the estimates of vaccine impact in China and India.

METHODS

For both countries, we calibrated a tuberculosis model to a scenario without self-clearance and to various scenarios with self-clearance. To account for the current uncertainty in self-clearance properties, we varied the rate of self-clearance, and the level of protection against reinfection in self-cleared individuals. We introduced potential new vaccines in 2025, exploring vaccines that work in uninfected or infected individuals only, or that are effective regardless of infection status, and modelling scenarios with different levels of vaccine efficacy in self-cleared individuals. We then estimated the relative disease incidence reduction in 2050 for each vaccine compared with the no vaccination scenario.

FINDINGS

The inclusion of self-clearance increased the estimated relative reductions in incidence in 2050 for vaccines effective only in uninfected individuals, by a maximum of 12% in China and 8% in India. The inclusion of self-clearance increased the estimated impact of vaccines only effective in infected individuals in some scenarios and decreased it in others, by a maximum of 14% in China and 15% in India. As would be expected, the inclusion of self-clearance had minimal impact on estimated reductions in incidence for vaccines that work regardless of infection status.

INTERPRETATIONS

Our work suggests that the neglect of self-clearance in mathematical models of tuberculosis vaccines does not result in substantially biased estimates of tuberculosis vaccine impact. It may, however, mean that we are slightly underestimating the relative advantages of vaccines that work in uninfected individuals only compared with those that work in infected individuals.

New tuberculosis vaccines in India: Modelling the potential health and economic impacts of adolescent/adult vaccination with M72/AS01 E and BCG-revaccination

Background India had an estimated 2.9 million tuberculosis cases and 506 thousand deaths in 2021. Novel vaccines effective in adolescents and adults could reduce this burden. M72/AS01E and BCG-revaccination have recently completed Phase IIb trials and estimates of their population-level impact are needed. We estimated the potential health and economic impact of M72/AS01E and BCG-revaccination in India and investigated the impact of variation in vaccine characteristics and delivery strategies. Methods We developed an age-stratified compartmental tuberculosis transmission model for India calibrated to country-specific epidemiology. We projected baseline epidemiology to 2050 assuming no-new-vaccine introduction, and M72/AS01E and BCG-revaccination scenarios over 2025-2050 exploring uncertainty in product characteristics (vaccine efficacy, mechanism of effect, infection status required for vaccine efficacy, duration of protection) and implementation (achieved vaccine coverage and ages targeted). We estimated reductions in tuberculosis cases and deaths by each scenario compared to no-new-vaccine introduction, as well as costs and cost-effectiveness from health-system and societal perspectives. Results M72/AS01E scenarios were predicted to avert 40% more tuberculosis cases and deaths by 2050 compared to BCG-revaccination scenarios. Cost-effectiveness ratios for M72/AS01E vaccines were around seven times higher than BCG-revaccination, but nearly all scenarios were cost-effective. The estimated average incremental cost was US$190 million for M72/AS01E and US$23 million for BCG-revaccination per year. Sources of uncertainty included whether M72/AS01E was efficacious in uninfected individuals at vaccination, and if BCG-revaccination could prevent disease. Conclusions M72/AS01E and BCG-revaccination could be impactful and cost-effective in India. However, there is great uncertainty in impact, especially given unknowns surrounding mechanism of effect and infection status required for vaccine efficacy. Greater investment in vaccine development and delivery is needed to resolve these unknowns in vaccine product characteristics.

The potential impact of novel tuberculosis vaccine introduction on economic growth in low- and middle-income countries: A modeling study

BACKGROUND

Most individuals developing tuberculosis (TB) are working age adults living in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The resulting disability and death impact economic productivity and burden health systems. New TB vaccine products may reduce this burden. In this study, we estimated the impact of introducing novel TB vaccines on gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 105 LMICs.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We adapted an existing macroeconomic model to simulate country-level GDP trends between 2020 and 2080, comparing scenarios for introduction of hypothetical infant and adolescent/adult vaccines to a no-new-vaccine counterfactual. We parameterized each scenario using estimates of TB-related mortality, morbidity, and healthcare spending from linked epidemiological and costing models. We assumed vaccines would be introduced between 2028 and 2047 and estimated incremental changes in GDP within each country from introduction to 2080, in 2020 US dollars. We tested the robustness of results to alternative analytic specifications. Both vaccine scenarios produced greater cumulative GDP in the modeled countries over the study period, equivalent to $1.6 (95% uncertainty interval: $0.8, 3.0) trillion for the adolescent/adult vaccine and $0.2 ($0.1, 0.4) trillion for the infant vaccine. These GDP gains were substantially lagged relative to the time of vaccine introduction, particularly for the infant vaccine. GDP gains resulting from vaccine introduction were concentrated in countries with higher current TB incidence and earlier vaccine introduction. Results were sensitive to secular trends in GDP growth but relatively robust to other analytic assumptions. Uncertain projections of GDP could alter these projections and affect the conclusions drawn by this analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

Under a range of assumptions, introducing novel TB vaccines would increase economic growth in LMICs.

Is neglect of self-clearance biassing TB vaccine impact estimates?

Background

Mathematical modelling has been used extensively to estimate the potential impact of new tuberculosis vaccines, with the majority of existing models assuming that individuals with Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) infection remain at lifelong risk of tuberculosis disease. Recent research provides evidence that self-clearance of Mtb infection may be common, which may affect the potential impact of new vaccines that only take in infected or uninfected individuals. We explored how the inclusion of self-clearance in models of tuberculosis affects the estimates of vaccine impact in China and India.

Methods

For both countries, we calibrated a tuberculosis model to a scenario without self-clearance and to various scenarios with self-clearance. To account for the current uncertainty in self-clearance properties, we varied the rate of self-clearance, and the level of protection against reinfection in self-cleared individuals. We introduced potential new vaccines in 2025, exploring vaccines that work in uninfected or infected individuals only, or that are effective regardless of infection status, and modelling scenarios with different levels of vaccine efficacy in self-cleared individuals. We then estimated the relative incidence reduction in 2050 for each vaccine compared to the no vaccination scenario.

Findings

The inclusion of self-clearance increased the estimated relative reductions in incidence in 2050 for vaccines effective only in uninfected individuals, by a maximum of 12% in China and 8% in India. The inclusion of self-clearance increased the estimated impact of vaccines only effective in infected individuals in some scenarios and decreased it in others, by a maximum of 14% in China and 15% in India. As would be expected, the inclusion of self-clearance had minimal impact on estimated reductions in incidence for vaccines that work regardless of infection status.

Interpretations

Our work suggests that the neglect of self-clearance in mathematical models of tuberculosis vaccines does not result in substantially biased estimates of tuberculosis vaccine impact. It may, however, mean that we are slightly underestimating the relative advantages of vaccines that work in uninfected individuals only compared to those that work in infected individuals.

The impact of alternative delivery strategies for novel tuberculosis vaccines in low-income and middle-income countries: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

Tuberculosis is a leading infectious cause of death worldwide. Novel vaccines will be required to reach global targets and reverse setbacks resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic. We estimated the impact of novel tuberculosis vaccines in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) in several delivery scenarios.

METHODS

We calibrated a tuberculosis model to 105 LMICs (accounting for 93% of global incidence). Vaccine scenarios were implemented as the base-case (routine vaccination of those aged 9 years and one-off vaccination for those aged 10 years and older, with country-specific introduction between 2028 and 2047, and 5-year scale-up to target coverage); accelerated scale-up similar to the base-case, but with all countries introducing vaccines in 2025, with instant scale-up; and routine-only (similar to the base-case, but including routine vaccination only). Vaccines were assumed to protect against disease for 10 years, with 50% efficacy.

FINDINGS

The base-case scenario would prevent 44·0 million (95% uncertainty range 37·2-51·6) tuberculosis cases and 5·0 million (4·6-5·4) tuberculosis deaths before 2050, compared with equivalent estimates of cases and deaths that would be predicted to occur before 2050 with no new vaccine introduction (the baseline scenario). The accelerated scale-up scenario would prevent 65·5 million (55·6-76·0) cases and 7·9 million (7·3-8·5) deaths before 2050, relative to baseline. The routine-only scenario would prevent 8·8 million (95% uncertainty range 7·6-10·1) cases and 1·1 million (0·9-1·2) deaths before 2050, relative to baseline.

INTERPRETATION

Our results suggest novel tuberculosis vaccines could have substantial impact, which will vary depending on delivery strategy. Including a one-off vaccination campaign will be crucial for rapid impact. Accelerated introduction-at a pace similar to that seen for COVID-19 vaccines-would increase the number of lives saved before 2050 by around 60%. Investment is required to support vaccine development, manufacturing, prompt introduction, and scale-up.

FUNDING

WHO (2020/985800-0).

TRANSLATIONS

For the French, Spanish, Italian and Dutch translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Feasibility of novel adult tuberculosis vaccination in South Africa: a cost-effectiveness and budget impact analysis

Early trials of novel vaccines against tuberculosis (TB) in adults have suggested substantial protection against TB. However, little is known about the feasibility and affordability of rolling out such vaccines in practice. We conducted expert interviews to identify plausible vaccination implementation strategies for the novel M72/AS01E vaccine candidate. The strategies were defined in terms of target population, coverage, vaccination schedule and delivery mode. We modelled these strategies to estimate long-term resource requirements and health benefits arising from vaccination over 2025-2050. We presented these to experts who excluded strategies that were deemed infeasible, and estimated cost-effectiveness and budget impact for each remaining strategy. The four strategies modelled combined target populations: either everyone aged 18-50, or all adults living with HIV, with delivery strategies: either a mass campaign followed by routine vaccination of 18-year olds, or two mass campaigns 10 years apart. Delivering two mass campaigns to all 18-50-year olds was found to be the most cost-effective strategy conferring the greatest net health benefit of 1.2 million DALYs averted having a probability of being cost-effective of 65-70%. This strategy required 38 million vaccine courses to be delivered at a cost of USD 507 million, reducing TB-related costs by USD 184 million while increasing ART costs by USD 79 million. A suitably designed adult TB vaccination programme built around novel TB vaccines is likely to be cost-effective and affordable given the resource and budget constraints in South Africa.

Developing tuberculosis vaccines for people with HIV: consensus statements from an international expert panel

New tuberculosis vaccine candidates that are in the development pipeline need to be studied in people with HIV, who are at high risk of acquiring Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection and tuberculosis disease and tend to develop less robust vaccine-induced immune responses. To address the gaps in developing tuberculosis vaccines for people with HIV, a series of symposia was held that posed six framing questions to a panel of international experts: What is the use case or rationale for developing tuberculosis vaccines? What is the landscape of tuberculosis vaccines? Which vaccine candidates should be prioritised? What are the tuberculosis vaccine trial design considerations? What is the role of immunological correlates of protection? What are the gaps in preclinical models for studying tuberculosis vaccines? The international expert panel formulated consensus statements to each of the framing questions, with the intention of informing tuberculosis vaccine development and the prioritisation of clinical trials for inclusion of people with HIV.

Building the concept for WHO Evidence Considerations for Vaccine Policy (ECVP): Tuberculosis vaccines intended for adults and adolescents as a test case

Currently, no formal mechanisms or systematic approaches exist to inform developers of new vaccines of the evidence anticipated to facilitate global policy recommendations, before a vaccine candidate approaches regulatory approval at the end of pre-licensure efficacy studies. Consequently, significant delays may result in vaccine introduction and uptake, while post-licensure data are generated to support a definitive policy decision. To address the uncertainties of the evidence-to-recommendation data needs and to mitigate the risk of delays between vaccine recommendation and use, WHO is evaluating the need for and value of a new strategic alignment tool: Evidence Considerations for Vaccine Policy (ECVP). EVCPs aim to fill a critical current gap by providing early (pre-phase 3 study design) information on the anticipated clinical trial and observational data or evidence that could support WHO and/or policy decision making for new vaccines in priority disease areas. The intent of ECVPs is to inform vaccine developers, funders, and other key stakeholders, facilitating stakeholder alignment in their strategic planning for late stage vaccine development. While ECVPs are envisaged as a tool to support dialogue on evidence needs between regulators and policy makers at the national, regional and global level, development of an ECVP will not preclude or supersede the independent WHO's Strategic Advisory Group of Experts on Immunization (SAGE) evidence to recommendation (EtR) process that is required for all vaccines seeking WHO policy recommendation. Tuberculosis (TB) vaccine candidates intended for use in the adolescent and adult target populations comprise a portfolio of priority vaccines in late-stage clinical development. As such, TB vaccines intended for use in this target population provide a 'test case' to further develop the ECVP concept, and develop the first WHO ECVP considerations guidance.

Cost-effectiveness of routine adolescent vaccination with an M72/AS01E-like tuberculosis vaccine in South Africa and India

The M72/AS01_E tuberculosis vaccine showed 50% (95%CI: 2-74%) efficacy in a phase 2B trial in preventing active pulmonary tuberculosis disease, but potential cost-effectiveness of adolescent immunisation is unknown. We estimated the impact and cost-effectiveness of six scenarios of routine adolescent M72/AS01_E-like vaccination in South Africa and India. All scenarios suggested an M72/AS01_E-like vaccine would be highly (94-100%) cost-effective in South Africa compared to a cost-effectiveness threshold of $2480/disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted. For India, a prevention of disease vaccine, effective irrespective of recipient's M. tuberculosis infection status at time of administration, was also highly likely (92-100%) cost-effective at a threshold of $264/DALY averted; however, a prevention of disease vaccine, effective only if the recipient was already infected, had 0-6% probability of cost-effectiveness. In both settings, vaccinating 50% of 18 year-olds was similarly cost-effective to vaccinating 80% of 15 year-olds, and more cost-effective than vaccinating 80% of 10 year-olds. Vaccine trials should include adolescents to ensure vaccines can be delivered to this efficient-to-target population.

Protective Effect of Rifampicin Loaded by HPMA-PLA Nanopolymer on Macrophages Infected with Mycobacterium Tuberculosis

Purpose

This research was designed to investigate the protective effect of rifampicin (RIF) loaded by N-(2-hydroxypropyl) methylacrylamide- (HPMA-) polylactic acid (PLA) nanopolymer on macrophages infected with Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB).

Methods

We first induced H37Rv to infect macrophages to build a cell model. Then, the HPMA-PLA nanopolymer loaded with RIF was prepared to treat MTB-infected macrophages. The macrophage activity was tested by the 3-(4,5-dimethylthiazol-2-yl)-2,5-diphenyltetrazolium bromide (MTT) assay, the nitric oxide (NO) in cells was measured through Griess reagent, and the bacterial activity of MTB was observed via the colony-forming unit (CFU) assay. The inflammation-related factors in cells were detected via the enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), the apoptosis of macrophages was examined via flow cytometry, and the expression of apoptosis-related proteins was determined by western blot (WB).

Results

HPMA-PLA had no obvious toxicity to macrophages. The expression of NO and inflammatory factors in macrophages infected with MTB increased significantly, but the apoptosis rate was not significantly different from that of uninfected cells. However, after treatment with HPMA-PLA-RIF or free RIF, the inflammatory reaction of infected cells was inhibited, the expression of NO was decreased, the apoptosis rate was increased, and the bacterial activity in cells was decreased, with statistically significant differences; moreover, HPMA-PLA-RIF was more effective than free RIF.

Conclusions

HPMA-PLA-RIF has a high protective effect on macrophages infected with MTB, with high safety. Its protective mechanism is at least partly through inhibiting the production of NO and inflammatory response, which can inhibit bacterial activity and induce cell apoptosis.

Adjuvants and Antigen-Delivery Systems for Subunit Vaccines against Tuberculosis

The only licensed vaccine against tuberculosis is BCG. However, BCG has failed to provide consistent protection against tuberculosis, especially pulmonary disease in adults. Furthermore, the use of BCG is contraindicated in immunocompromised subjects. The research towards the development of new vaccines against TB includes the use of Mycobacterium tuberculosis antigens as subunit vaccines. Such vaccines may be used either alone or in the prime-boost model in BCG-vaccinated people. However, the antigens for subunit vaccines require adjuvants and/or delivery systems to induce appropriate and protective immune responses against tuberculosis and other diseases. Articles published in this Special Issue have studied the pathogenesis of BCG in children and the use of BCG and recombinant BCG as potential vaccines against asthma. Furthermore, the use of different adjuvants and delivery systems in inducing the protective immune responses after immunization with subunit vaccines has been described.

Affordability of Adult Tuberculosis Vaccination in India and China: A Dynamic Transmission Model-Based Analysis

New tuberculosis vaccines have made substantial progress in the development pipeline. Previous modelling suggests that adolescent/adult mass vaccination may cost-effectively contribute towards achieving global tuberculosis control goals. These analyses have not considered the budgetary feasibility of vaccine programmes. We estimate the maximum total cost that the public health sectors in India and China should expect to pay to introduce a M72/AS01_E-like vaccine deemed cost-effective at country-specific willingness to pay thresholds for cost-effectiveness. To estimate the total disability adjusted life years (DALYs) averted by the vaccination programme, we simulated a 50% efficacy vaccine providing 10-years of protection in post-infection populations between 2027 and 2050 in India and China using a dynamic transmission model of M. tuberculosis. We investigated two mass vaccination strategies, both delivered every 10-years achieving 70% coverage: Vaccinating adults and adolescents (age ≥10y), or only the most efficient 10-year age subgroup (defined as greatest DALYs averted per vaccine given). We used country-specific thresholds for cost-effectiveness to estimate the maximum total cost (C_max) a government should be willing to pay for each vaccination strategy. Adult/adolescent vaccination resulted in a C_max of $21 billion (uncertainty interval [UI]: 16–27) in India, and $15B (UI:12–29) in China at willingness to pay thresholds of $264/DALY averted and $3650/DALY averted, respectively. Vaccinating the highest efficiency age group (India: 50–59y; China: 60–69y) resulted in a C_max of $5B (UI:4–6) in India and $6B (UI:4–7) in China. Mass vaccination against tuberculosis of all adults and adolescents, deemed cost-effective, will likely impose a substantial budgetary burden. Targeted tuberculosis vaccination, deemed cost-effective, may represent a more affordable approach.