Simulation of climate-tick-host-landscape interactions: Effects of shifts in the seasonality of host population fluctuations on tick densities

How do host population dynamics impact Lyme disease risk dynamics in theoretical models?

Lyme disease is the most common wildlife-to-human transmitted disease reported in North America. The study of this disease requires an understanding of the ecology of the complex communities of ticks and host species involved in harboring and transmitting this disease. Much of the ecology of this system is well understood, such as the life cycle of ticks, and how hosts are able to support tick populations and serve as disease reservoirs, but there is much to be explored about how the population dynamics of different host species and communities impact disease risk to humans. In this study, we construct a stage-structured, empirically-informed model with host dynamics to investigate how host population dynamics can affect disease risk to humans. The model describes a tick population and a simplified community of three host species, where primary nymph host populations are made to fluctuate on an annual basis, as commonly observed in host populations. We tested the model under different environmental conditions to examine the effect of environment on the interactions of host dynamics and disease risk. Results show that allowing for host dynamics in the model reduces mean nymphal infection prevalence and increases the maximum annual prevalence of nymphal infection and the density of infected nymphs. Effects of host dynamics on disease measures of nymphal infection prevalence were nonlinear and patterns in the effect of dynamics on amplitude in nymphal infection prevalence varied across environmental conditions. These results highlight the importance of further study of the effect of community dynamics on disease risk. This will involve the construction of further theoretical models and collection of robust field data to inform these models. With a more complete understanding of disease dynamics we can begin to better determine how to predict and manage disease risk using these models.

Collaborative Modeling of the Tick-Borne Disease Social-Ecological System: A Conceptual Framework

Hard-bodied ticks have become a major concern in temperate regions because they transmit a variety of pathogens of medical significance. Ticks and pathogens interact with hosts in a complex social-ecological system (SES) that influences human exposure to tick-borne diseases (TBD). We argue that addressing the urgent public health threat posed by TBD requires an understanding of the integrated processes in the forest ecosystem that influence tick density and infection prevalence, transmission among ticks, animal hosts, and ultimately disease prevalence in humans. We argue that collaborative modeling of the human-tick SES is required to understand the system dynamics as well as move science toward policy action. Recent studies in human health have shown the importance of stakeholder participation in understanding the factors that contribute to human exposure to zoonotic diseases. We discuss how collaborative modeling can be applied to understand the impacts of forest management practices on ticks and TBD. We discuss the potential of collaborative modeling for encouraging participation of diverse stakeholders in discussing the implications of managing forest ticks in the absence of large-scale control policy.

In Search of Proximate Triggers of Anthrax Outbreaks in Wildlife: A Hypothetical Individual-Based Model of Plasmid Transfer within Bacillus Communities

Bacillus anthracis, the causative agent of anthrax in humans, livestock, and wildlife, exists in a community with hundreds of other species of bacteria in the environment. Work on the genetics of these communities has shown that B. anthracis shares a high percentage of chromosomal genes with both B. thuringiensis and B. cereus, and that phenotypic differences among these bacteria can result from extra-chromosomal DNA in the form of plasmids. We developed a simple hypothetical individual-based model to simulate the likelihood of detecting plasmids with genes encoding anthrax toxins within bacterial communities composed of B. anthracis, B. thuringiensis, and B. cereus, and the surrounding matrix of extra-cellular polymeric substances. Simulation results suggest the horizontal transfer of plasmids with genes encoding anthrax toxins among Bacillus species persisting outside the host could function as a proximate factor triggering anthrax outbreaks.

Tularemia cases increase in the USA from 2011 through 2019

Tularemia is a rare but potentially serious bacterial zoonosis, which has been reported in the 47 contiguous states of the USA during 2001-2010. This report summarizes the passive surveillance data of tularemia cases reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention from 2011 through 2019. There were 1984 cases reported in the USA during this period. The average national incidence was 0.07 cases per 100,000 person-years (PY), compared to 0.04 cases per 100,000 PY during 2001-2010. The highest statewide reported case 2011-2019 was in Arkansas (374 cases, 20.4% of total), followed by Missouri (13.1%), Oklahoma (11.9%), and Kansas (11.2%). Regarding race, ethnicity, and sex, tularemia cases were reported more frequently among white, non-Hispanic, and male patients. Cases were reported in all age groups; however, individuals 65 years-old and older exhibited the highest incidence. The seasonal distribution of cases generally paralleled the seasonality of tick activity and human outdoor activity, increasing during spring through mid-summer and decreasing through late summer and fall to winter lows. Improved surveillance and education of ticks and tick- and water-borne pathogens should play a key role in efforts to decrease the incidence of tularemia in the USA.

Modeling Effects of Vertebrate Host Exclosures and Host-Targeted Acaricides on Lone Star Tick (Amblyomma americanum, L.) Infestations

We used a spatially explicit model to simulate the potential effects of exclosures and acaricides targeted at medium-sized mammalian hosts on the local distribution and abundance of lone star ticks (Amblyomma americanum) within forestlands of the southeastern United States. Both exclosures and acaricides were successful in markedly reducing the densities of all off-host tick life stages inside the treatment areas. Densities dropped to almost zero immediately inside the edges of the exclosures, with noticeably depressed densities extending outward 30 to 60 m from the exclosures, and the simulated exclosures maintained their effectiveness as their sizes were decreased from 4.5 to 2.25 to 0.8 ha. Densities exhibited a smooth gradient across the edges of the acaricide-treated areas, with depressed densities extending ≈100 m outward from the edges, but with perceptible densities extending ≈60 m inward from the edges; thus, the simulated acaricide areas lost their effectiveness as size was decreased to slightly less than one-half the diameter of the activity range of the targeted host. Our simulation results indicated that off-host nymph densities responded to reductions of medium-sized host densities. These results suggest that targeting acaricides at medium-sized hosts may be an effective, and currently under-utilized, method for tick suppression.

Increasing Incidence of Spotted Fever Group Rickettsioses in the United States, 2010-2018

Spotted fever group Rickettsia species are intracellular bacteria transmitted by tick or mite vectors and that cause human diseases referred to as spotted fever group rickettsioses, or spotted fevers. In the United States, the most recognized and commonly reported spotted fevers are Rocky Mountain spotted fever (RMSF) (Rickettsia rickettsii), Rickettsia parkeri rickettsiosis, Pacific Coast tick fever (Rickettsia species 364D), and rickettsialpox (Rickettsia akari). In this study, we summarize and evaluate surveillance data on spotted fever cases reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) through the National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System from 2010 to 2018. During this period, there were 36,632 reported cases of spotted fevers with 95.83% (N = 35,104) reported as meeting the case definition as probable and 4.17% (N = 1528) reported as meeting the case definition as confirmed. The average national incidence of total cases, both probable and confirmed, was 12.77 cases per million persons per year. The highest statewide incidence was in Arkansas, with 256.84 per million per year, whereas the lowest incidence occurred in California, with 0.32 per million per year (note that spotted fevers were not notifiable in Hawaii and Alaska). Cases of spotted fevers were reported more frequently among males by gender, White by race, and non-Hispanic by ethnicity. The incidence of spotted fevers increased significantly from 2010 to 2018, but it is uncertain how many of the reported cases were RMSF and how many developed from more moderate spotted fevers. Improvement of the ability to differentiate between spotted fever group Rickettsia species is needed.

Transmission patterns of tick-borne pathogens among birds and rodents in a forested park in southeastern Canada

Ixodes scapularis ticks are expanding their range in parts of northeastern North America, bringing with them pathogens of public health concern. While rodents like the white-footed mouse, Peromyscus leucopus, are considered the primary reservoir of many emerging tick-borne pathogens, the contribution of birds, as alternative hosts and reservoirs, to local transmission cycles has not yet been firmly established. From 2016 to 2018, we collected host-seeking ticks and examined rodent and bird hosts for ticks at 48 sites in a park where blacklegged ticks are established in Quebec, Canada, in order to characterize the distribution of pathogens in ticks and mammalian and avian hosts. We found nearly one third of captured birds (n = 849) and 70% of small mammals (n = 694) were infested with I. scapularis. Five bird and three mammal species transmitted Borrelia burgdorferi to feeding larvae (n larvae tested = 2257) and we estimated that about one fifth of the B. burgdorferi-infected questing nymphs in the park acquired their infection from birds, the remaining being attributable to mice. Ground-foraging bird species were more parasitized than other birds, and species that inhabited open habitat were more frequently infested and were more likely to transmit B. burgdorferi to larval ticks feeding upon them. Female birds were more likely to transmit infection than males, without age differentiation, whereas in mice, adult males were more likely to transmit infection than juveniles and females. We also detected Borrelia miyamotoi in larvae collected from birds, and Anaplasma phagocytophilum from a larva collected from a white-footed mouse. This study highlights the importance of characterising the reservoir potential of alternative reservoir hosts and to quantify their contribution to transmission dynamics in different species assemblages. This information is key to identifying the most effective host-targeted risk mitigation actions.

Simulated dynamics of southern cattle fever ticks (Rhipicephalus (Boophilus) microplus) in south Texas, USA: investigating potential wildlife-mediated impacts on eradication efforts

Background

Cattle fever ticks (CFT), Rhipicephalus (Boophilus) annulatus and R. (B.) microplus, are vectors of microbes causing bovine babesiosis and pose a threat to the economic viability of the US livestock industry. Efforts by the Cattle Fever Tick Eradication Program (CFTEP) along the US-Mexico border in south Texas are complicated by the involvement of alternate hosts, including white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) and nilgai (Boselaphus tragocamelus).

Methods

In the present study, we use a spatially explicit, individual-based model to explore the potential effects of host species composition and host habitat use patterns on southern cattle fever ticks (SCFT, R. (B.) microplus) infestation dynamics and efficacy of eradication schemes.

Results

In simulations without eradication efforts, mean off-host larval densities were much higher when cattle were present than when only white-tailed deer and nilgai were present. Densities in mesquite and meadows were slightly higher, and densities in mixed brush were much lower, than landscape-level densities in each of these scenarios. In eradication simulations, reductions in mean off-host larval densities at the landscape level were much smaller when acaricide was applied to cattle only, or to cattle and white-tailed deer, than when applied to cattle and nilgai. Relative density reductions in mesquite, mixed brush, and meadows depended on host habitat use preferences. Shifting nilgai habitat use preferences increasingly toward mixed brush and away from mesquite did not change mean off-host larval tick densities noticeably at the landscape level. However, mean densities were increased markedly in mesquite and decreased markedly in mixed brush, while no noticeable change in density was observed in meadows.

Conclusions

Our results suggest that continued integration of field data into spatially explicit, individual-based models will facilitate the development of novel eradication strategies and will allow near-real-time infestation forecasts as an aid in anticipating and preventing wildlife-mediated impacts on SCFT eradication efforts.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13071-021-04724-3.

Using Data Surveillance to Understand the Rising Incidence of Babesiosis in the United States, 2011-2018

Babesiosis is a tick-borne disease that is caused by intraerythrocytic protozoan parasites of the genus Babesia. Common symptoms of babesiosis are generally characterized as nonspecific flu-like symptoms, such as fever or chills. Human infections are reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) through the National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System (NNDSS). This study summarizes data of Babesia infections reported to the CDC by the NNDSS from 2011 to 2018. In total, there were 14,159 reported cases of babesiosis, and the incidence rate was 5.55 cases per million persons per year, displaying an increasing trend during the study period. The demographic group most affected was middle-aged and elderly white males. Infections were most abundant in the New England and the Mid-Atlantic regions of the United States. Our study provides useful results for a basic understanding of incidence, spatial and temporal distribution, and severity of babesiosis.

Effects of white-tailed deer habitat use preferences on southern cattle fever tick eradication: simulating impact on "pasture vacation" strategies

BACKGROUND

Rhipicephalus (Boophilus) annulatus and Rhipicephalus (Boophilus) microplus (southern cattle fever tick; SCFT), collectively known as cattle-fever ticks (CFTs), are vectors of protozoal parasites (Babesia bigemina and Babesia bovis) that cause bovine babesiosis (also known as cattle fever). One traditional strategy for CFT eradication involves the implementation of a "pasture vacation," which involves removing cattle (Bos taurus) from an infested pasture for an extended period of time. However, vacated pastures are often inhabited by wildlife hosts, such as white-tailed deer (WTD; Odocoileus virginianus), which can serve as alternate hosts for questing CFTs. We hypothesized that the distribution of host-seeking larvae among habitat types post-pasture vacation would reflect habitat use patterns of WTD, and in turn, affect the subsequent rate of pasture infestation by CFT.

METHODS

We adapted a spatially explicit, individual-based model to simulate interactions among SCFT, cattle, and WTD as a tool to investigate the potential effects of WTD habitat use preferences on the efficacy of a pasture vacation. We parameterized the model to represent conditions typical of rangelands in south Texas, USA, simulated a 1-year pasture vacation under different assumptions regarding WTD habitat use preferences, and summarized effects on efficacy through (1) time post-vacation to reach 100% of pre-vacation densities of host-seeking larvae, and (2) the ecological conditions that resulted in the lowest host-seeking larval densities following pasture vacation.

RESULTS

Larval densities at the landscape scale varied seasonally in a similar manner over the entire simulation period, regardless of WTD habitat use preferences. Following the removal of cattle, larval densities declined sharply to < 100 larvae/ha. Following the return of cattle, larval densities increased to > 60% of pre-vacation densities ≈ 21 weeks post-vacation, and reached pre-vacation levels in less than a year. Trends in larval densities in different habitat types paralleled those at the landscape scale over the entire simulation period, but differed quantitatively from one another during the pasture vacation. Relative larval densities (highest to lowest) shifted from (1) wood/shrub, (2) grass, (3) mixed-brush during the pre-vacation period to (1) mixed-brush, (2) wood/shrub, (3) grass or (1) wood/shrub, (2) mixed-brush, (3) grass during the post-vacation period, depending on WTD habitat use preferences.

CONCLUSIONS

By monitoring WTD-driven shifts in distributions of SCFT host-seeking larvae among habitat types during simulated pasture vacation experiments, we were able to identify potential SCFT refugia from which recrudescence of infestations could originate. Such information could inform timely applications of acaricides to specific refugia habitats immediately prior to the termination of pasture vacations.

Enhanced biosurveillance of high-consequence invasive pests: southern cattle fever ticks, Rhipicephalus (Boophilus) microplus, on livestock and wildlife

Background

Some tick species are invasive and of high consequence to public and veterinary health. Socioeconomic development of rural parts of the USA was enabled partly through the eradication by 1943 of cattle fever ticks (CFT, Rhipicephalus (Boophilus) annulatus and R. (B.) microplus). The southern cattle fever ticks (SCFT, R. (B.) microplus) remain a real and present threat to the USA animal agriculture because they are established in Mexico. Livestock-wildlife interactions in the Permanent Quarantine Zone (PQZ) established by the century-old Cattle Fever Tick Eradication Programme (CFTEP) in south Texas endanger its operations.

Methods

We describe a spatially-explicit, individual-based model that simulates interactions between cattle, white-tailed deer (WTD, Odocoileus virginianus), and nilgai (Boselaphus tragocamelus) to assess the risk for SCFT infestations across the pathogenic landscape in the PQZ and beyond. We also investigate the potential role of nilgai in sustaining SCFT populations by simulating various hypothetical infestation and eradication scenarios.

Results

All infestation scenarios resulted in a phase transition from a relatively small proportion of the ranch infested to almost the entire ranch infested coinciding with the typical period of autumn increases in off-host tick larvae. Results of eradication scenarios suggest that elimination of all on-host ticks on cattle, WTD, or nilgai would have virtually no effect on the proportion of the ranch infested or on the proportions of different tick habitat types infested; the entire ranch would remain infested. If all on-host ticks were eliminated on cattle and WTD, WTD and nilgai, or cattle and nilgai, the proportions of the ranch infested occasionally would drop to 0.6, 0.6 and 0.2, respectively. Differences in proportions of the ranch infested from year to year were due to primarily to differences in winter weather conditions, whereas infestation differences among tick habitat types were due primarily to habitat use preferences of hosts.

Conclusions

Infestations in nilgai augment SCFT refugia enabled by WTD and promote pest persistence across the landscape and cattle parasitism. Our study documented the utility of enhanced biosurveillance using simulation tools to mitigate risk and enhance operations of area-wide tick management programmes like the CFTEP through integrated tactics for SCFT suppression.

Increased Incidence of Ehrlichia chaffeensis Infections in the United States, 2012 Through 2016

Human ehrlichioses are tick-borne diseases that have been increasing in incidence in the United States during recent years. Ehrlichia chaffeensis is one of the primary bacteria that cause ehrlichiosis in humans, which typically results in fever-like symptoms, but may also be fatal if left untreated. E. chaffeensis infections are reported to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) through the National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System (NNDSS). This study analyzed the cases of E. chaffeensis infections reported by the NNDSS from 2012 through 2016. There were 6786 cases and the incidence rate was 4.46 cases per million persons per year. The demographic group most commonly infected was white males between the ages of 40 and 64. Infections were most abundant in the southeast and midwest, particularly in Arkansas, Missouri, Tennessee, and Oklahoma, as well as much of the east coast. The number of cases reported each year from 2012 through 2016 was higher than the number reported in any of the previous 4 years. Ongoing surveillance and reporting of tick-borne diseases are critical to inform public health practice and guide disease treatment and prevention efforts.

Visceral leishmaniasis on the Indian Subcontinent: Efficacy of fipronil-based cattle treatment in controlling sand fly populations is dependent on specific aspects of sand fly ecology

BACKGROUND

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a deadly disease transmitted by the sand fly Phlebotomus argentipes on the Indian subcontinent, with a promising means of vector control being orally treating cattle with fipronil-based drugs. While prior research investigating the dynamic relationship between timing of fipronil-based control schemes and the seasonality of sand flies provides insights into potential of treatment on a large scale, ecological uncertainties remain. We investigated how uncertainties associated with sand fly ecology might affect our ability to assess efficacy of fipronil-based control schemes. To do this, we used a previously-described, individual-based, stochastic sand fly model to quantify how uncertainties associated with 1) the percentage of female sand flies taking blood meals from cattle, and 2) the percentage of female sand flies ovipositing in organic matter containing feces from treated cattle might impact the efficacy of fipronil-based sand fly control schemes.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Assuming no prior knowledge of sand fly blood meal and oviposition sites, the probabilities of achieving effective sand fly population reduction with treatments performed 3, 6 and 12 times per year were ≈5-22%, ≈27-36%, and ≈46-54%, respectively. Assuming ≥50% of sand flies feed on cattle, probabilities of achieving efficacious control increased to ≈8-31%, ≈15-42%, and ≈52-65%. Assuming also that ≥50% of sand flies oviposit in cattle feces, the above probabilities increased further to ≈14-53%, ≈31-81%, and ≈89-97%.

CONCLUSIONS

Our assessments of the efficacy of fipronil-based cattle treatments in controlling sand fly populations depend on our assumptions regarding key aspects of sand fly ecology. Assessments are most sensitive to assumptions concerning the percentage of sand flies ovipositing in feces of treated cattle, thus emphasizing the importance of identifying sand fly oviposition sites. Our results place the evaluation of fipronil-based cattle treatment within a broader ecological context, which could aid in the planning and execution of a largescale field trial.

Simulation tools for assessment of tick suppression treatments of Rhipicephalus (Boophilus) microplus on non-lactating dairy cattle in Puerto Rico

BACKGROUND

The southern cattle fever tick (SCFT), Rhipicephalus (Boophilus) microplus, remains endemic in Puerto Rico. Systematic treatment programmes greatly reduced and even eradicated temporarily this tick from the island. However, a systemic treatment programme that includes integrated management practices for livestock against SCFT remains to be established in the island. We describe a spatially-explicit, individual-based model that simulates climate-livestock-SCFT-landscape interactions. This model was developed as an investigative tool to aid in a research project on integrated management of the SCFT that took place in Puerto Rico between 2014 and 2017. We used the model to assess the efficacy of tick suppression and probability of tick elimination when applying safer acaricides at 3-week intervals to different proportions of a herd of non-lactating dairy cattle.

RESULTS

Probabilities of eliminating host-seeking larvae from the simulated system decreased from ≈ 1 to ≈ 0 as the percentage of cattle treated decreased from 65 to 45, with elimination probabilities ≈ 1 at higher treatment percentages and ≈ 0 at lower treatment percentages. For treatment percentages between 65% and 45%, a more rapid decline in elimination probabilities was predicted by the version of the model that produced higher densities of host-seeking larvae. Number of weeks after the first acaricide application to elimination of host-seeking larvae was variable among replicate simulations within treatment percentages, with within-treatment variation increasing markedly at treatment percentages ≤ 65. Number of weeks after first application to elimination generally varied between 30 and 40 weeks for those treatment percentages with elimination probabilities ≈ 1.

CONCLUSIONS

Explicit simulation of the spatial and temporal dynamics of off-host (host-seeking) larvae in response to control methods should be an essential element of research that involves the evaluation of integrated SCFT management programmes. This approach could provide the basis to evaluate novel control technologies and to develop protocols for their cost-effective use with other treatment methods.

Dynamic, spatial models of parasite transmission in wildlife: Their structure, applications and remaining challenges

Individual differences in contact rate can arise from host, group and landscape heterogeneity and can result in different patterns of spatial spread for diseases in wildlife populations with concomitant implications for disease control in wildlife of conservation concern, livestock and humans. While dynamic disease models can provide a better understanding of the drivers of spatial spread, the effects of landscape heterogeneity have only been modelled in a few well-studied wildlife systems such as rabies and bovine tuberculosis. Such spatial models tend to be either purely theoretical with intrinsic limiting assumptions or individual-based models that are often highly species- and system-specific, limiting the breadth of their utility. Our goal was to review studies that have utilized dynamic, spatial models to answer questions about pathogen transmission in wildlife and identify key gaps in the literature. We begin by providing an overview of the main types of dynamic, spatial models (e.g., metapopulation, network, lattice, cellular automata, individual-based and continuous-space) and their relation to each other. We investigate different types of ecological questions that these models have been used to explore: pathogen invasion dynamics and range expansion, spatial heterogeneity and pathogen persistence, the implications of management and intervention strategies and the role of evolution in host-pathogen dynamics. We reviewed 168 studies that consider pathogen transmission in free-ranging wildlife and classify them by the model type employed, the focal host-pathogen system, and their overall research themes and motivation. We observed a significant focus on mammalian hosts, a few well-studied or purely theoretical pathogen systems, and a lack of studies occurring at the wildlife-public health or wildlife-livestock interfaces. Finally, we discuss challenges and future directions in the context of unprecedented human-mediated environmental change. Spatial models may provide new insights into understanding, for example, how global warming and habitat disturbance contribute to disease maintenance and emergence. Moving forward, better integration of dynamic, spatial disease models with approaches from movement ecology, landscape genetics/genomics and ecoimmunology may provide new avenues for investigation and aid in the control of zoonotic and emerging infectious diseases.