Short-term movement of Phlebotomus argentipes (Diptera: Psychodidae) in a visceral leishmaniasis-endemic village in Bihar, India

Inferring the regional distribution of Visceral Leishmaniasis incidence from data at different spatial scales

BACKGROUND

As cases of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in India dwindle, there is motivation to monitor elimination progress on a finer geographic scale than sub-district (block). Low-incidence projections across geographically- and demographically- heterogeneous communities are difficult to act upon, and equitable elimination cannot be achieved if local pockets of incidence are overlooked. However, maintaining consistent surveillance at this scale is resource-intensive and not sustainable in the long-term.

METHODS

We analysed VL incidence across 45,000 villages in Bihar state, exploring spatial autocorrelation and associations with local environmental conditions in order to assess the feasibility of inference at this scale. We evaluated a statistical disaggregation approach to infer finer spatial variation from routinely-collected, block-level data, validating against observed village-level incidence.

RESULTS

This disaggregation approach does not estimate village-level incidence more accurately than a baseline assumption of block-homogeneity. Spatial auto-correlation is evident on a block-level but weak between neighbouring villages within the same block, possibly suggesting that longer-range transmission (e.g., due to population movement) may be an important contributor to village-level heterogeneity.

CONCLUSIONS

Increasing the range of reactive interventions to neighbouring villages may not improve their efficacy in suppressing transmission, but maintaining surveillance and diagnostic capacity in areas distant from recently observed cases - particularly along routes of population movement from endemic regions - could reduce reintroduction risk in currently unaffected villages. The reactive, spatially-targeted approach to VL surveillance limits interpretability of data observed at the village level, and hence the feasibility of routinely drawing and validating inference at this scale.

A Composite Recombinant Salivary Proteins Biomarker for Phlebotomus argentipes Provides a Surveillance Tool Postelimination of Visceral Leishmaniasis in India

Incidence of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) in the Indian subcontinent (ISC) has declined by more than 95% since initiation of the elimination program in 2005. As the ISC transitions to the postelimination surveillance phase, an accurate measurement of human-vector contact is needed to assure long-term success. To develop this tool, we identified PagSP02 and PagSP06 from saliva of Phlebotomus argentipes, the vector of Leishmania donovani in the ISC, as immunodominant proteins in humans. We also established the absence of cross-reactivity with Phlebotomus papatasi saliva, the only other human-biting sand fly in the ISC. Importantly, by combining recombinant rPagSP02 and rPagSP06 we achieved greater antibody recognition and specificity than single salivary proteins. The receiver operating characteristics curve for rPagSP02 + rPagSP06 predicts exposure to Ph. argentipes bites with 90% specificity and 87% sensitivity compared to negative control sera (P >.0001). Overall, rPagSP02 + rPagSP06 provides an effective surveillance tool for monitoring vector control efforts after VL elimination.

Towards a Sustainable Vector-Control Strategy in the Post Kala-Azar Elimination Era

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a potentially deadly parasitic disease. In the Indian sub-continent, VL is caused by Leishmania donovani and transmitted via the bite of an infected Phlebotomus argentipes female sand fly, the only competent vector species in the region. The highest disease burden is in the northern part of the Indian sub-continent, especially in the state of Bihar. India, Bangladesh, and Nepal embarked on an initiative, coordinated by World Health Organization, to eliminate VL as a public health problem by the year 2020. The main goal is to reduce VL incidence below one case per 10,000 people through early case-detection, prompt diagnosis and treatment, and reduction of transmission using vector control measures. Indoor residual spraying, a major pillar of the elimination program, is the only vector control strategy used by the government of India. Though India is close to its VL elimination target, important aspects of vector bionomics and sand fly transmission dynamics are yet to be determined. To achieve sustained elimination and to prevent a resurgence of VL, knowledge gaps in vector biology and behavior, and the constraints they may pose to current vector control methods, need to be addressed. Herein, we discuss the successes and failures of previous and current vector-control strategies implemented to combat kala-azar in Bihar, India, and identify gaps in our understanding of vector transmission towards development of innovative tools to ensure sustained vector control in the post-elimination period.

Inferring transmission trees to guide targeting of interventions against visceral leishmaniasis and post-kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis

Methods for analyzing individual-level geo-located disease data have existed for some time, but have rarely been used to analyze endemic human diseases. Here we apply such methods to nearly a decade’s worth of uniquely detailed epidemiological data on incidence of the deadly vector-borne disease visceral leishmaniasis (VL) and its secondary condition, post–kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis (PKDL), to quantify the spread of infection around cases in space and time by inferring who infected whom, and estimate the relative contribution of different infection states to transmission. Our findings highlight the key role long diagnosis delays and PKDL play in maintaining VL transmission. This detailed characterization of the spatiotemporal transmission of VL will help inform targeting of interventions around VL and PKDL cases.

Understanding of spatiotemporal transmission of infectious diseases has improved significantly in recent years. Advances in Bayesian inference methods for individual-level geo-located epidemiological data have enabled reconstruction of transmission trees and quantification of disease spread in space and time, while accounting for uncertainty in missing data. However, these methods have rarely been applied to endemic diseases or ones in which asymptomatic infection plays a role, for which additional estimation methods are required. Here, we develop such methods to analyze longitudinal incidence data on visceral leishmaniasis (VL) and its sequela, post–kala-azar dermal leishmaniasis (PKDL), in a highly endemic community in Bangladesh. Incorporating recent data on VL and PKDL infectiousness, we show that while VL cases drive transmission when incidence is high, the contribution of PKDL increases significantly as VL incidence declines (reaching 55% in this setting). Transmission is highly focal: 85% of mean distances from inferred infectors to their secondary VL cases were <300 m, and estimated average times from infector onset to secondary case infection were <4 mo for 88% of VL infectors, but up to 2.9 y for PKDL infectors. Estimated numbers of secondary cases per VL and PKDL case varied from 0 to 6 and were strongly correlated with the infector’s duration of symptoms. Counterfactual simulations suggest that prevention of PKDL could have reduced overall VL incidence by up to 25%. These results highlight the need for prompt detection and treatment of PKDL to achieve VL elimination in the Indian subcontinent and provide quantitative estimates to guide spatiotemporally targeted interventions against VL.

Visceral leishmaniasis on the Indian Subcontinent: Efficacy of fipronil-based cattle treatment in controlling sand fly populations is dependent on specific aspects of sand fly ecology

BACKGROUND

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) is a deadly disease transmitted by the sand fly Phlebotomus argentipes on the Indian subcontinent, with a promising means of vector control being orally treating cattle with fipronil-based drugs. While prior research investigating the dynamic relationship between timing of fipronil-based control schemes and the seasonality of sand flies provides insights into potential of treatment on a large scale, ecological uncertainties remain. We investigated how uncertainties associated with sand fly ecology might affect our ability to assess efficacy of fipronil-based control schemes. To do this, we used a previously-described, individual-based, stochastic sand fly model to quantify how uncertainties associated with 1) the percentage of female sand flies taking blood meals from cattle, and 2) the percentage of female sand flies ovipositing in organic matter containing feces from treated cattle might impact the efficacy of fipronil-based sand fly control schemes.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

Assuming no prior knowledge of sand fly blood meal and oviposition sites, the probabilities of achieving effective sand fly population reduction with treatments performed 3, 6 and 12 times per year were ≈5-22%, ≈27-36%, and ≈46-54%, respectively. Assuming ≥50% of sand flies feed on cattle, probabilities of achieving efficacious control increased to ≈8-31%, ≈15-42%, and ≈52-65%. Assuming also that ≥50% of sand flies oviposit in cattle feces, the above probabilities increased further to ≈14-53%, ≈31-81%, and ≈89-97%.

CONCLUSIONS

Our assessments of the efficacy of fipronil-based cattle treatments in controlling sand fly populations depend on our assumptions regarding key aspects of sand fly ecology. Assessments are most sensitive to assumptions concerning the percentage of sand flies ovipositing in feces of treated cattle, thus emphasizing the importance of identifying sand fly oviposition sites. Our results place the evaluation of fipronil-based cattle treatment within a broader ecological context, which could aid in the planning and execution of a largescale field trial.