Troubled spots: Human impacts constrain the density of an apex predator inside protected areas

Effective conservation requires understanding the processes that determine population outcomes. Too often, we assume that protected areas conserve wild populations despite evidence that they frequently fail to do so. Without large-scale studies, however, we cannot determine what relationships are the product of localized conditions versus general patterns that inform conservation more broadly. Leopards' (Panthera pardus) basic ecology is well studied but little research has investigated anthropogenic effects on leopard density at broad scales. We investigated the drivers of leopard density among 27 diverse protected areas in northeastern South Africa to understand what conditions facilitate abundant populations. We formulated 10 working hypotheses that considered the relative influence of bottom-up biological factors and top-down anthropogenic factors on leopard density. Using camera-trap survey data, we fit a multi-session spatial capture-recapture model with inhomogenous density for each hypothesis and evaluated support using an information theoretic approach. The four supported hypotheses indicated that leopard density is primarily limited by human impacts, but that habitat suitability and management conditions also matter. The proportion of camera stations that recorded domestic animals, a proxy for the extent of human impacts and protected area effectiveness, was the only predictor variable present in all four supported models. Protected areas are the cornerstone of large felid conservation, but only when the human-wildlife interface is well managed and protected areas shelter wildlife populations from anthropogenic impacts. To ensure the long-term abundance of large carnivore populations, reserve managers should recognize the ineffectiveness of "paper parks" and promote contiguous networks of protected areas that offer leopards and other large mammal populations greater space and reduced human impacts.

Population size, density, and ranging behaviour in a key leopard population in the Western Cape, South Africa

Globally, leopards are the most widespread large felid. However, mounting anthropogenic threats are rapidly reducing viable leopard populations and their range. Despite the clear pressures facing this species, there is a dearth of robust and reliable population and density estimates for leopards across their range, which is particularly important in landscapes that consist of protected and non-protected areas. We conducted a camera trapping survey between 2017 and 2018 in the Western Cape, South Africa to estimate the occupancy, density, and population size of a leopard population. Leopards were recorded at 95% of camera trapping sites, which resulted in a high occupancy that showed no significant variation between seasons, habitat types, or along an altitudinal gradient. Our results indicated a low leopard density in the study area, with an estimated 1.53 leopards/100 km² in summer and 1.62 leopards/100 km² in winter. Mean leopard population size was therefore estimated at 107 and 113 individuals in the winter and summer respectively. Leopard activity centres for female ranges were centred in the core study area and could be predicted with good certainty, while males appeared to move out of the study area during winter which resulted in a higher uncertainty in locations of activity centres. Interestingly, livestock depredation events in the surrounding farmlands were significantly higher in winter, which coincides with male leopards moving outside the core protected area into the surrounding farmlands. To reduce livestock losses and retaliatory leopard killings, we suggest that human-carnivore conflict mitigation measures be intensely monitored during the winter months in the study area. We also suggest that future leopard conservation efforts should focus on privately-owned land as these non-protected areas contain the majority of the remaining suitable leopard habitat and may provide important dispersal corridors and buffer zones on which the long-term sustainability of leopard populations depends.

Leopard and spotted hyena densities in the Lake Mburo National Park, southwestern Uganda

Robust measures of animal densities are necessary for effective wildlife management. Leopards (Panthera pardus) and spotted hyenas (Crocuta Crocuta) are higher order predators that are data deficient across much of their East African range and in Uganda, excepting for one peer-reviewed study on hyenas, there are presently no credible population estimates for these species. A lack of information on the population status and even baseline densities of these species has ramifications as leopards are drawcards for the photo-tourism industry, and along with hyenas are often responsible for livestock depredations from pastoralist communities. Leopards are also sometimes hunted for sport. Establishing baseline density estimates for these species is urgently needed not only for population monitoring purposes, but in the design of sustainable management offtakes, and in assessing certain conservation interventions like financial compensation for livestock depredation. Accordingly, we ran a single-season survey of these carnivores in the Lake Mburo National Park of south-western Uganda using 60 remote camera traps distributed in a paired format at 30 locations. We analysed hyena and leopard detections under a Bayesian spatially explicit capture-recapture (SECR) modelling framework to estimate their densities. This small national park (370 km²) is surrounded by Bahima pastoralist communities with high densities of cattle on the park edge (with regular park incursions). Leopard densities were estimated at 6.31 individuals/100 km² (posterior SD = 1.47, 95% CI [3.75-9.20]), and spotted hyena densities were 10.99 individuals/100 km², but with wide confidence intervals (posterior SD = 3.35, 95% CI [5.63-17.37]). Leopard and spotted hyena abundance within the boundaries of the national park were 24.87 (posterior SD 7.78) and 39.07 individuals (posterior = SD 13.51) respectively. Leopard densities were on the middle end of SECR studies published in the peer-reviewed literature over the last 5 years while spotted hyena densities were some of the first reported in the literature using SECR, and similar to a study in Botswana which reported 11.80 spotted hyenas/100 km². Densities were not noticeably lower at the park edge, and in the southwest of our study site, despite repeated cattle incursions into these areas. We postulate that the relatively high densities of both species in the region could be owed to impala Aepyceros melampus densities ranging from 16.6-25.6 impala/km². Another, potential explanatory variable (albeit a speculative one) is the absence of interspecific competition from African lions (Panthera leo), which became functionally extinct (there is only one male lion present) in the park nearly two decades ago. This study provides the first robust population estimate of these species anywhere in Uganda and suggests leopards and spotted hyenas continue to persist in the highly modified landscape of Lake Mburo National Park.

Intraspecific interactions in a high-density leopard population

Although less studied than interspecific interactions, interactions among members of the same species can influence space use and temporal activity. Using techniques commonly applied to the analysis of interspecific interactions-multispecies occupancy modeling and the analysis of temporal activity patterns-we studied intraspecific interactions within a high-density population of Persian leopards (Panthera pardus saxicolor) in Tandoureh National Park, northeastern Iran. Using camera-trap data, we investigated spatiotemporal interactions between male leopards, lone female leopards, and families (cubs/females with cubs). While we hypothesized that male and female leopards would display different temporal activity patterns, we did not predict spatial avoidance between these groups. We also predicted that leopard families would exhibit spatiotemporal avoidance from male leopards due to the risk of infanticide. Contrary to our expectations, we did not find any evidence for spatial or temporal avoidance between leopard families and adult male leopards. Male and lone female leopards exhibited positive pairwise co-occurrence, consistent with reports of high overlap between male and female leopard home ranges. While a high level of overlap in temporal activity patterns was found between males/lone females and males/families, there was evidence for variation in the proportion of time each leopard group was active in particular periods of the diel cycle. Male leopards showed cathemeral activity, while lone females and families were more active during daylight hours. The application of these techniques to interactions within a species has improved understanding of the ecology and behavior of this endangered solitary carnivore.

Home range variation in leopards living across the human density gradient

Home range size is a fundamental measure of animal space use, providing insight into habitat quality, animal density, and social organization. Human impacts increasingly are affecting wildlife, especially among wide-ranging species that encounter anthropogenic disturbance. Leopards (Panthera pardus) provide a useful model for studying this relationship because leopards coexist with people at high and low human densities and are sensitive to human disturbance. To compare leopard home range size across a range of human densities and other environmental conditions, we combined animal tracking data from 74 leopards in multiple studies with new analytical techniques that accommodate different sampling regimes. We predicted that home ranges would be smaller in more productive habitats and areas of higher human population density due to possible linkage with leopard prey subsidies from domestic species. We also predicted that male leopards would have larger home ranges than those of females. Home ranges varied in size from 14.5 km2 in India to 885.6 km2 in Namibia, representing a 60-fold magnitude of variation. Home range stability was evident for 95.2% of nontranslocated individuals and 38.5% of translocated individuals. Leopard home range sizes were negatively correlated with landscape productivity, and males used larger areas than females. Leopards in open habitats had a predicted negative correlation in home range size with human population density, but leopards in closed habitats used larger home ranges in areas with more people.

Reducing persecution is more effective for restoring large carnivores than restoring their prey

Large carnivores are currently disappearing from many world regions because of habitat loss, prey depletion, and persecution. Ensuring large carnivore persistence requires safeguarding and sometimes facilitating the expansion of their populations. Understanding which conservation strategies, such as reducing persecution or restoring prey, are most effective to help carnivores to reclaim their former ranges is therefore important. Here, we systematically explored such alternative strategies for the endangered Persian leopard (Panthera pardus saxicolor) in the Caucasus. We combined a rule-based habitat suitability map and a spatially explicit leopard population model to identify potential leopard subpopulations (i.e., breeding patches), and to test the effect of different levels of persecution reduction and prey restoration on leopard population viability across the entire Caucasus ecoregion and northern Iran (about 737,000 km² ). We identified substantial areas of potentially suitable leopard habitat (~120,000 km² ), most of which is currently unoccupied. Our model revealed that leopards could potentially recolonize these patches and increase to a population of >1,000 individuals in 100 yr, but only in scenarios of medium to high persecution reduction and prey restoration. Overall, reducing persecution had a more pronounced effect on leopard metapopulation viability than prey restoration: Without conservation strategies to reduce persecution, leopards went extinct from the Caucasus in all scenarios tested. Our study highlights the importance of persecution reduction in small populations, which should hence be prioritized when resources for conservation are limited. We show how individual-based, spatially explicit metapopulation models can help in quantifying the recolonization potential of large carnivores in unoccupied habitat, designing adequate conservation strategies to foster such recolonizations, and anticipating the long-term prospects of carnivore populations under alternative scenarios. Our study also outlines how data scarcity, which is typical for threatened range-expanding species, can be overcome with a rule-based habitat map. For Persian leopards, our projections clearly suggest that there is a large potential for a viable metapopulation in the Caucasus, but only if major conservation actions are taken towards reducing persecution and restoring prey.

Assessing spatio-temporal patterns of human-leopard interactions based on media reports in northwestern India

Large carnivores in human-use areas make for sensational print media content.  We used media reports to examine human-leopard interactions in Rajasthan, India.  We extracted news reports on leopard-related incidents from January 2016 to December 2018.  Incidents (n= 338) were categorized, mapped, and analysed to understand their nature and extent.  We found leopard-related news from 26 of 33 districts; a majority of these were in the eastern region of the State.  Most of the reported interactions appeared to be non-negative, despite losses to both leopards and people.  Our results provide a synthesis of spatio-temporal patterns of leopard-related incidents, which could help wildlife managers in better addressing negative interactions.  The study also demonstrates how news reports could be useful for examining human-wildlife interactions across large spatial scales.

Age structure changes indicate direct and indirect population impacts in illegally harvested black rhino

Overharvesting affects the size and growth of wildlife populations and can impact population trajectories. Overharvesting can also severely alter population structure and may result in changes in spatial organisation, social dynamics and recruitment. Understanding the relationship between overharvesting and population growth is therefore crucial for the recovery of exploited species. The black rhinoceros (Diceros bicornis; black rhino) is a long-lived megaherbivore native to sub-Saharan Africa, listed as Critically Endangered on the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species. Since 2009, the targeted illegal killing of rhino for their horns has escalated dramatically in South Africa. Given their slow life trajectories, spatial structure and social dynamics, black rhino may be susceptible to both direct and indirect impacts of overharvesting. Our study compared black rhino demography before and during extensive poaching to understand the impact of illegal killing. The population exhibited significant changes in age structure after four years of heavy poaching; these changes were primarily explained by a decrease in the proportion of calves over time. Population projections incorporating both direct poaching removals and decreased fecundity/recruitment were most similar to the observed demographic profile in 2018, suggesting that indirect impacts are also contributing to the observed population trajectory. These indirect impacts are likely a result of decreased density, through processes such as reduced mate-finding, population disturbance and/or increased calf predation. This study illustrates the combined effect of direct and indirect impacts on an endangered species, providing a more comprehensive approach by which to evaluate exploited populations.

Unsustainable anthropogenic mortality disrupts natal dispersal and promotes inbreeding in leopards

Anthropogenic mortality of wildlife is typically inferred from measures of the absolute decline in population numbers. However, increasing evidence suggests that indirect demographic effects including changes to the age, sex, and social structure of populations, as well as the behavior of survivors, can profoundly impact population health and viability. Specifically, anthropogenic mortality of wildlife (especially when unsustainable) and fragmentation of the spatial distribution of individuals (home-ranges) could disrupt natal dispersal mechanisms, with long-term consequences to genetic structure, by compromising outbreeding behavior and gene flow. We investigate this threat in African leopards (Panthera pardus pardus), a polygynous felid with male-biased natal dispersal. Using a combination of spatial (home-range) and genetic (21 polymorphic microsatellites) data from 142 adult leopards, we contrast the structure of two South African populations with markedly different histories of anthropogenically linked mortality. Home-range overlap, parentage assignment, and spatio-genetic autocorrelation together show that historical exploitation of leopards in a recovering protected area has disrupted and reduced subadult male dispersal, thereby facilitating opportunistic male natal philopatry, with sons establishing territories closer to their mothers and sisters. The resultant kin-clustering in males of this historically exploited population is comparable to that of females in a well-protected reserve and has ultimately led to localized inbreeding. Our findings demonstrate novel evidence directly linking unsustainable anthropogenic mortality to inbreeding through disrupted dispersal in a large, solitary felid and expose the genetic consequences underlying this behavioral change. We therefore emphasize the importance of managing and mitigating the effects of unsustainable exploitation on local populations and increasing habitat fragmentation between contiguous protected areas by promoting in situ recovery and providing corridors of suitable habitat that maintain genetic connectivity.

Changes in spatial organization following an acute epizootic: Tasmanian devils and their transmissible cancer

Epidemiological studies commonly monitor host population density but rarely account for how transmission dynamics might be influenced by changes in spatial and social organization that arise from high mortality altering population demography. Devil facial tumour disease (DFTD), a novel transmissible cancer, caused almost 100% mortality of its single host, the Tasmanian devil, and a >90% local population decline since its emergence 20 years ago. We compare size and overlap in home ranges in a devil population before and 15 years after disease outbreak. We used location data collected with VHF tracking collars in 2001 and GPS collars in the same area in 2015 and 2016. Density of adult devils, calculated from live trapping data in the same years, show a strong decrease following the disease outbreak. The decline in density was accompanied by a reduction in female home range size, a trend not observed for males. Both spatially explicit population modelling and animal tracking showed a decrease in female home range overlap following the DFTD outbreak. These changes in spatial organisation of the host population have the potential to alter the local transmission dynamic of the tumours. Our results are consistent with the general theory of sex-biased spatial organization mediated by resource availability and highlight the importance of incorporating spatial ecology into epidemiological studies.

Ecological opportunity drives individual dietary specialization in leopards

Individual specialization, when individuals exploit only a subset of resources utilized by the population, is a widespread phenomenon. It provides the basis for evolutionary diversification and can impact population and community dynamics. Both phenotypic traits and environmental conditions are predicted to influence individual specialization; however, its adaptive consequences are poorly understood, particularly among large mammalian carnivores that play an important role in shaping ecosystems. We used observations of 2,960 kills made by 49 leopards Panthera pardus in the Sabi Sand Game Reserve, South Africa, to quantify the magnitude of individual dietary specialization in a solitary large carnivore, and to examine the proximate and ultimate drivers of this behaviour. We found evidence of individual specialization in leopard diet, with respect to both the species and size of prey killed. Males tended to be more specialized than females, likely because they could access a wider range of prey due to larger body size. Similarly, individuals that encountered a greater diversity of prey tended to be more specialized. Our results confirmed that ecological opportunity was a key determinant of individual specialization; however, contrary to predictions, per capita resource availability (and by extension, intraspecific competition) did not affect the degree of specialization exhibited by individuals. Surprisingly, dietary specialization appeared to disadvantage male leopards. Specialist males overlapped with fewer resident females, had fewer cubs born on their home ranges and had fewer cubs survive to independence on their home ranges than generalist males. This may have resulted from the high degree of environmental stochasticity experienced during our study, as dietary specialization is expected to advantage individuals more during periods of resource predictability. In summary, we showed that a species usually considered to be a dietary generalist was in fact a heterogeneous collection of specialist and generalist individuals. Individual specialization is typically assumed to be maintained by disruptive and/or fluctuating selection; hence, the somewhat paradoxical coexistence of both in the same population might be explained by a dynamic evolutionary equilibrium that exists between specialists and generalists, in which each benefit under different conditions.

The evolution of matrilineal social systems in fissiped carnivores

We review matrilineal relationships in the societies of fissiped mammalian carnivores, focusing on how the most complex of these may have evolved from simpler systems. Although competition for food is very intense at the trophic level occupied by most carnivores, and although most species of extant fissiped carnivores therefore lead solitary lives, some species show at least rudimentary clustering of maternal kin and matrilineal resource-sharing or transmission of critical resources between generations. The resources shared or transmitted range from individual food items and territories to entire networks of potential allies. The greatest elaboration of matrilineal relationships has occurred in two large carnivores, lions and spotted hyenas, which occur sympatrically throughout much of Africa. The societies of both these species apparently evolved in response to a shared suite of ecological conditions. The highly matrilineal societies of spotted hyenas are unique among carnivores and closely resemble the societies of many cercopithecine primates. The conditions favouring the evolution of matrilineal societies in carnivores include male-biased dispersal, female philopatry, the need for assistance in protecting or provisioning offspring, reliance on large or abundant prey, particularly in open habitat, high population density and kin-structured cooperative interactions that have strong positive effects on fitness. This article is part of the theme issue 'The evolution of female-biased kinship in humans and other mammals'.

Genetic evidence of female kin clusters in a continuous population of a solitary carnivore, the Eurasian lynx

Large terrestrial carnivores can sometimes display strong family bonds affecting the spatial distribution of related individuals. We studied the spatial genetic relatedness and family structure of female Eurasian lynx, continuously distributed in southern Finland. We hypothesized that closely related females form matrilineal assemblages, clustering together with relatives living in the neighboring areas. We evaluated this hypothesis using tissue samples of 133 legally harvested female lynx (from year 2007 to 2015), genotyped with 23 microsatellite markers, and tested for possible spatial genetic family structure using a combination of Bayesian clustering, spatial autocorrelation, and forensic genetic parentage analysis. The study population had three potential family genetic clusters, with a high degree of admixture and geographic overlap, and showed a weak but significant negative relationship between pairwise genetic and geographic distance. Moreover, parentage analysis indicated that 64% of the females had one or more close relatives (sister, mother, or daughter) within the study population. Individuals identified as close kin consistently assigned to the same putative family genetic cluster. They also were sampled closer geographically than females on average, although variation was large. Our results support the possibility that Eurasian lynx forms matrilineal assemblages, and comparisons with males are now required to further assess this hypothesis.

Anchoring and adjusting amidst humans: Ranging behavior of Persian leopards along the Iran-Turkmenistan borderland

Understanding the space use and movement ecology of apex predators, particularly in mosaic landscapes encompassing different land-uses, is fundamental for formulating effective conservation policy. The top extant big cat in the Middle East and the Caucasus, the Persian leopard Panthera pardus saxicolor, has disappeared from most of its historic range. Its spatial ecology in the areas where it remains is almost unknown. Between September 2014 and May 2017, we collared and monitored six adult leopards (5 males and 1 female) using GPS-satellite Iridium transmitters in Tandoureh National Park (355 km²) along the Iran-Turkmenistan borderland. Using auto-correlated Kernel density estimation based on a continuous-time stochastic process for relocation data, we estimated a mean home range of 103.4 ± SE 51.8 km² for resident males which is larger than has been observed in other studies of Asian leopards. Most predation events occurred in core areas, averaging 32.4 ± SE 12.7 km². Although neighboring leopards showed high spatiotemporal overlap, their hunting areas were largely exclusive. Five out of six of leopards spent some time outside the national park, among human communities. Our study suggests that a national park can play an ‘anchoring’ role for individuals of an apex predator that spend some time in the surrounding human-dominated landscapes. Therefore, we envisage that instead of emphasizing either land sharing or land sparing, a combined approach can secure the viability of resilient large carnivores that are able to coexist with humans in the rugged montane landscapes of west and central Asia.

Sociodemographic factors modulate the spatial response of brown bears to vacancies created by hunting

There is a growing recognition of the importance of indirect effects from hunting on wildlife populations, e.g. social and behavioural changes due to harvest, which occur after the initial offtake. Nonetheless, little is known about how the removal of members of a population influences the spatial configuration of the survivors. We studied how surviving brown bears (Ursus arctos) used former home ranges that had belonged to casualties of the annual bear hunting season in southcentral Sweden (2007-2015). We used resource selection functions to explore the effects of the casualty's and survivor's sex, age and their pairwise genetic relatedness, population density and hunting intensity on survivors' spatial responses to vacated home ranges. We tested the competitive release hypothesis, whereby survivors that increase their use of a killed bear's home range are presumed to have been released from intraspecific competition. We found strong support for this hypothesis, as survivors of the same sex as the casualty consistently increased their use of its vacant home range. Patterns were less pronounced or absent when the survivor and casualty were of opposite sex. Genetic relatedness between the survivor and the casualty emerged as the most important factor explaining increased use of vacated male home ranges by males, with a stronger response from survivors of lower relatedness. Relatedness was also important for females, but it did not influence use following removal; female survivors used home ranges of higher related female casualties more, both before and after death. Spatial responses by survivors were further influenced by bear age, population density and hunting intensity. We have shown that survivors exhibit a spatial response to vacated home ranges caused by hunting casualties, even in nonterritorial species such as the brown bear. This spatial reorganization can have unintended consequences for population dynamics and interfere with management goals. Altogether, our results underscore the need to better understand the short- and long-term indirect effects of hunting on animal social structure and their resulting distribution in space.

Population dynamics and threats to an apex predator outside protected areas: implications for carnivore management

Data on the population dynamics and threats to large carnivores are vital to conservation efforts, but these are hampered by a paucity of studies. For some species, such as the leopard (Panthera pardus), there is such uncertainty in population trends that leopard trophy hunting has been banned in South Africa since 2016 while further data on leopard abundance are collected. We present one of the first assessments of leopard population dynamics, and identify the key threats to a population of leopards outside of protected areas in South Africa. We conducted a long-term trap survey between 2012 and 2016 in the Soutpansberg Mountains, and drew on a previous estimate of leopard population density for the region from 2008. In 24 sampling periods, we estimated the population density and assessed population structure. We fitted eight leopards with GPS collars to assess threats to the population. Leopard population density declined by 66%, from 10.73 to 3.65 leopards per 100 km² in 2008 and 2016, respectively. Collared leopards had a high mortality rate, which appeared to be due to illegal human activity. While improving the management of trophy hunting is important, we suggest that mitigating human-wildlife conflict could have a bigger impact on carnivore conservation.