Mechanisms that can cause population decline under heavily skewed male-biased adult sex ratios

While adult sex ratio (ASR) is a crucial component for population management, there is still a limited understanding of how its fluctuation affects population dynamics. To demonstrate mechanisms that hinder population growth under a biased ASR, we examined changes in reproductive success with ASR using a decapod crustacean exposed to female-selective harvesting. We examined the effect of ASR on the spawning success of females. A laboratory experiment showed that the number of eggs carried by females decreased as the proportion of males in the mating groups increased. Although the same result was not observed in data collected over 25 years in the wild, the negative effect of ASR was suggested when success in carrying eggs was considered as a spawning success. These results indicate that a surplus of males results in females failing to carry eggs, probably due to sexual coercion, and the negative effect of ASR can be detected at the population level only when the bias increases because failure in spawning success occurs in part of population. We experimentally examined how male-biased sex ratios affected the maintenance of genetic diversity in a population. The diversity of paternity in a clutch increased with the number of candidate fathers. However, over 50% of a clutch was fertilised by a single male regardless of the sex ratio, and the degree of diversity was less than half of the highest diversity expected in each mating group. We also experimentally examined the mating ability of males during the breeding season. The experiment showed that multiple mating by males could not compensate for the risk that their genotypes would be lost when multiple males competed for one female. These results suggest that a male-biased ASR could trigger a decline of genetic diversity in a population. We show that ASR skewed by female-selective harvesting decreases reproductive success not only of males that have few mating opportunities but also of females. We discuss that we may still underestimate the significance of ASR on population persistence due to the difficulty of revealing the effect of ASR.

Social consequences of rapid environmental change

While direct influences of the environment on population growth and resilience are well studied, indirect routes linking environmental changes to population consequences are less explored. We suggest that social behavior is key for understanding how anthropogenic environmental changes affect the resilience of animal populations. Social structures of animal groups are evolved and emergent phenotypes that often have demographic consequences for group members. Importantly, environmental drivers may directly influence the consequences of social structure or indirectly influence them through modifications to social interactions, group composition, or group size. We have developed a framework to study these demographic consequences. Estimating the strength of direct and indirect pathways will give us tools to understand, and potentially manage, the effect of human-induced rapid environmental changes.

Raising offspring increases ageing: Differences in senescence among three populations of a long-lived seabird, the Atlantic puffin

Actuarial senescence, the decline of survival with age, is well documented in the wild. Rates of senescence vary widely between taxa, to some extent also between sexes, with the fastest life histories showing the highest rates of senescence. Few studies have investigated differences in senescence among populations of the same species, although such variation is expected from population-level differences in environmental conditions, leading to differences in vital rates and thus life histories. We predict that, within species, populations differing in productivity (suggesting different paces of life) should experience different rates of senescence, but with little or no sexual difference in senescence within populations of monogamous, monomorphic species where the sexes share breeding duties. We compared rates of actuarial senescence among three contrasting populations of the Atlantic puffin Fratercula arctica. The dataset comprised 31 years (1990-2020) of parallel capture-mark-recapture data from three breeding colonies, Isle of May (North Sea), Røst (Norwegian Sea) and Hornøya (Barents Sea), showing contrasting productivities (i.e. annual breeding success) and population trends. We used time elapsed since first capture as a proxy for bird age, and productivity and the winter North Atlantic Oscillation Index (wNAO) as proxies for the environmental conditions experienced by the populations within and outside the breeding season, respectively. In accordance with our predictions, we found that senescence rates differed among the study populations, with no evidence for sexual differences. There was no evidence for an effect of wNAO, but the population with the lowest productivity, Røst, showed the lowest rate of senescence. As a consequence, the negative effect of senescence on the population growth rate (λ) was up to 3-5 times smaller on Røst (Δλ = -0.009) than on the two other colonies. Our findings suggest that environmentally induced differences in senescence rates among populations of a species should be accounted for when predicting effects of climate variation and change on species persistence. There is thus a need for more detailed information on how both actuarial and reproductive senescence influence vital rates of populations of the same species, calling for large-scale comparative studies.

Quantifying the conservation status and abundance trends of wildlife communities with detection-nondetection data

Effective conservation requires understanding species' abundance patterns and demographic rates across space and time. Ideally, such knowledge should be available for whole communities because variation in species' dynamics can elucidate factors leading to biodiversity losses. However, collecting data to simultaneously estimate abundance and demographic rates of communities of species is often prohibitively time intensive and expensive. We developed a multispecies dynamic N-occupancy model to estimate unbiased, community-wide relative abundance and demographic rates. In this model, detection-nondetection data (e.g., repeated presence-absence surveys) are used to estimate species- and community-level parameters and the effects of environmental factors. To validate our model, we conducted a simulation study to determine how and when such an approach can be valuable and found that our multispecies model outperformed comparable single-species models in estimating abundance and demographic rates in many cases. Using data from a network of camera traps across tropical equatorial Africa, we then used our model to evaluate the statuses and trends of a forest-dwelling antelope community. We estimated relative abundance, rates of recruitment (i.e., reproduction and immigration), and apparent survival probabilities for each species' local population. The antelope community was fairly stable (although 17% of populations [species-park combinations] declined over the study period). Variation in apparent survival was linked more closely to differences among national parks than to individual species' life histories. The multispecies dynamic N-occupancy model requires only detection-nondetection data to evaluate the population dynamics of multiple sympatric species and can thus be a valuable tool for examining the reasons behind recent biodiversity loss.

Population viability assessment of an endangered raptor using detection/non-detection data reveals susceptibility to anthropogenic impacts

As the demand for carbon-neutral energy sources increases, so does the need to understand the impacts that these technologies have on the environment. Here, we assess the potential consequences of additional mortality on an Endangered raptor recently exposed to wind farms for the first time, the Black Harrier Circus maurus, one of the world's rarest harriers. We conduct a population viability assessment using a Bayesian model integrating life-history information and annual reporting rates from detection/non-detection surveys from the South African Bird Atlas Project. Our model estimates a global population of approximately 1300 birds currently declining at 2.3% per year, and one that could collapse in under 100 years, if an average of three to five adult birds are killed annually. This level of mortality may soon exist, given the current rate of fatalities and the number of wind farms planned within the species' distribution. In addition, we find that the population is sensitive to changes in climate. Our results highlight the critical need for appropriate placement, and adaptive management of wind farms and other infrastructure causing harrier mortality. We also show how detection/non-detection data may be used to infer population dynamics and viability, when population counts are unavailable.

Harvesting can stabilise population fluctuations and buffer the impacts of extreme climatic events

Harvesting can magnify the destabilising effects of environmental perturbations on population dynamics and, thereby, increase extinction risk. However, population-dynamic theory predicts that impacts of harvesting depend on the type and strength of density-dependent regulation. Here, we used logistic population growth models and an empirical reindeer case study to show that low to moderate harvesting can actually buffer populations against environmental perturbations. This occurs because of density-dependent environmental stochasticity, where negative environmental impacts on vital rates are amplified at high population density due to intra-specific resource competition. Simulations from our population models show that even low levels of harvesting may prevent overabundance, thereby dampening population fluctuations and reducing the risk of population collapse and quasi-extinction following environmental perturbations. Thus, depending on the species' life history and the strength of density-dependent environmental drivers, low to moderate harvesting can improve population resistance to increased climate variability and extreme weather expected under global warming.

Reducing persecution is more effective for restoring large carnivores than restoring their prey

Large carnivores are currently disappearing from many world regions because of habitat loss, prey depletion, and persecution. Ensuring large carnivore persistence requires safeguarding and sometimes facilitating the expansion of their populations. Understanding which conservation strategies, such as reducing persecution or restoring prey, are most effective to help carnivores to reclaim their former ranges is therefore important. Here, we systematically explored such alternative strategies for the endangered Persian leopard (Panthera pardus saxicolor) in the Caucasus. We combined a rule-based habitat suitability map and a spatially explicit leopard population model to identify potential leopard subpopulations (i.e., breeding patches), and to test the effect of different levels of persecution reduction and prey restoration on leopard population viability across the entire Caucasus ecoregion and northern Iran (about 737,000 km² ). We identified substantial areas of potentially suitable leopard habitat (~120,000 km² ), most of which is currently unoccupied. Our model revealed that leopards could potentially recolonize these patches and increase to a population of >1,000 individuals in 100 yr, but only in scenarios of medium to high persecution reduction and prey restoration. Overall, reducing persecution had a more pronounced effect on leopard metapopulation viability than prey restoration: Without conservation strategies to reduce persecution, leopards went extinct from the Caucasus in all scenarios tested. Our study highlights the importance of persecution reduction in small populations, which should hence be prioritized when resources for conservation are limited. We show how individual-based, spatially explicit metapopulation models can help in quantifying the recolonization potential of large carnivores in unoccupied habitat, designing adequate conservation strategies to foster such recolonizations, and anticipating the long-term prospects of carnivore populations under alternative scenarios. Our study also outlines how data scarcity, which is typical for threatened range-expanding species, can be overcome with a rule-based habitat map. For Persian leopards, our projections clearly suggest that there is a large potential for a viable metapopulation in the Caucasus, but only if major conservation actions are taken towards reducing persecution and restoring prey.

A deepening understanding of animal culture suggests lessons for conservation

A key goal of conservation is to protect biodiversity by supporting the long-term persistence of viable, natural populations of wild species. Conservation practice has long been guided by genetic, ecological and demographic indicators of risk. Emerging evidence of animal culture across diverse taxa and its role as a driver of evolutionary diversification, population structure and demographic processes may be essential for augmenting these conventional conservation approaches and decision-making. Animal culture was the focus of a ground-breaking resolution under the Convention on the Conservation of Migratory Species of Wild Animals (CMS), an international treaty operating under the UN Environment Programme. Here, we synthesize existing evidence to demonstrate how social learning and animal culture interact with processes important to conservation management. Specifically, we explore how social learning might influence population viability and be an important resource in response to anthropogenic change, and provide examples of how it can result in phenotypically distinct units with different, socially learnt behavioural strategies. While identifying culture and social learning can be challenging, indirect identification and parsimonious inferences may be informative. Finally, we identify relevant methodologies and provide a framework for viewing behavioural data through a cultural lens which might provide new insights for conservation management.

Anthropogenic pressures increase extinction risk of an isolated Asian elephant (Elephas maximus) population in southwestern China, as revealed by a combination of molecular- and landscape-scale approaches

Identification of the effect of anthropogenic threats on ecosystem is crucial. We used molecular tools and remote sensing to evaluate the population status of an isolated Asian elephant population in southwestern China in response to changes in habitat suitability between 1989 and 2019. A total of 22 unique genotypes were identified from 117 dung samples collected between March and June 2018 using microsatellite DNA analysis, including 13 males and 9 females. Based on the size of fecal boli, 1 animal was a juvenile, 9 were subadults, and 12 were adults, indicating that recruitment was limited. The effective population size was small (15.3) but there was no signature of a recent population bottleneck. We observed a low genetic diversity (H_e = 0.46 ± 0.05) and a high level of inbreeding (F_is of 0.43 ± 0.11), suggesting low population viability and high risk of extinction. In total, these elephants lost nearly two thirds (62%) of their habitat in 3 decades. The expansion of agriculture and rubber plantations followed by an increase in human settlements after 1989 increased the isolation of this population. We recommend that resettlement of 800 inhabitants of 2 villages and the abandonment of associated farmland and rubber plantations would make an additional 20 km² of suitable habitat available. This could allow a population increase of 14 elephants, possibly by translocating individuals from elsewhere in China. Our findings can be applied to the management and conservation of other fragmented populations in China or in other range countries of Asian elephants.

Thresholds of population persistence for the Yangtze finless porpoise: implications for conservation managements

The Yangtze finless porpoise (Neophocaena asiaeorientalis asiaeorientalis), a critically endangered species, is the only cetacean species in the Yangtze River following the functional extinction of baiji (Lipotes vexillifer). To inform conservation actions, two important questions need to be addressed: what is the threshold value of survival rate, and what is the threshold value of population size? We calculate the instantaneous rate of population increase ( r ¯ ) for the Yangtze finless porpoise for various combinations of the calf and the non-calf survival rates. We also test the probability of extinction for different minimum carrying capacities for 100 and 500 years using a stable population model. The threshold value of the non-calf survival rate is never lower than 0.869, but current estimates from field data have been far below this threshold. Our model based on extinction probability and carrying capacity suggests that the threshold for the population size to persist 100 years required 113 animals, and 472 animals are required to persist 500 years. Therefore, we recommend establishing an ex situ reserve network to guarantee the minimum 100-year carrying capacity. To ensure the long-term population viability, we suggest establishing two in situ reserve zones in two lakes and their surrounding reserves to meet a minimum 500-year carrying capacity. In addition, measures to avoid further habitat fragmentation should be priority.

Recovered after an extreme bottleneck and saved by ex situ management: Lessons from the Alagoas curassow (Pauxi mitu [Linnaeus, 1766]; Aves, Galliformes, Cracidae)

A pivotal debate on biodiversity conservation is whether the scarce budgets must be invested in critically endangered taxa or in those with higher chances to survive due to larger population sizes. Addressing the fate of extremely bottlenecked taxa is an ideal way to test this idea, but empirical cases are surprisingly limited. The reintroduction of the extinct-in-the-wild Alagoas curassow (Pauxi mitu) by Brazilian scientists in September 2019 added to the two other known cases of survival to bottlenecks of only two or three individuals. We exploit the reasons why this species has survived, and we report how investments to rescue the Alagoas curassow resulted in the protection of many other taxa, suggesting that in the face of the dramatic number of extinctions expected for the Anthropocene, integration must prevail over a choice.

Identifying island safe havens to prevent the extinction of the World's largest lizard from global warming

The Komodo dragon (Varanus komodoensis) is an endangered, island‐endemic species with a naturally restricted distribution. Despite this, no previous studies have attempted to predict the effects of climate change on this iconic species. We used extensive Komodo dragon monitoring data, climate, and sea‐level change projections to build spatially explicit demographic models for the Komodo dragon. These models project the species’ future range and abundance under multiple climate change scenarios. We ran over one million model simulations with varying model parameters, enabling us to incorporate uncertainty introduced from three main sources: (a) structure of global climate models, (b) choice of greenhouse gas emission trajectories, and (c) estimates of Komodo dragon demographic parameters. Our models predict a reduction in range‐wide Komodo dragon habitat of 8%–87% by 2050, leading to a decrease in habitat patch occupancy of 25%–97% and declines of 27%–99% in abundance across the species' range. We show that the risk of extirpation on the two largest protected islands in Komodo National Park (Rinca and Komodo) was lower than other island populations, providing important safe havens for Komodo dragons under global warming. Given the severity and rate of the predicted changes to Komodo dragon habitat patch occupancy (a proxy for area of occupancy) and abundance, urgent conservation actions are required to avoid risk of extinction. These should, as a priority, be focused on managing habitat on the islands of Komodo and Rinca, reflecting these islands’ status as important refuges for the species in a warming world. Variability in our model projections highlights the importance of accounting for uncertainties in demographic and environmental parameters, structural assumptions of global climate models, and greenhouse gas emission scenarios when simulating species metapopulation dynamics under climate change.

Long-term shifts in the colony size structure of coral populations along the Great Barrier Reef

The age or size structure of a population has a marked influence on its demography and reproductive capacity. While declines in coral cover are well documented, concomitant shifts in the size-frequency distribution of coral colonies are rarely measured at large spatial scales. Here, we document major shifts in the colony size structure of coral populations along the 2300 km length of the Great Barrier Reef relative to historical baselines (1995/1996). Coral colony abundances on reef crests and slopes have declined sharply across all colony size classes and in all coral taxa compared to historical baselines. Declines were particularly pronounced in the northern and central regions of the Great Barrier Reef, following mass coral bleaching in 2016 and 2017. The relative abundances of large colonies remained relatively stable, but this apparent stability masks steep declines in absolute abundance. The potential for recovery of older fecund corals is uncertain given the increasing frequency and intensity of disturbance events. The systematic decline in smaller colonies across regions, habitats and taxa, suggests that a decline in recruitment has further eroded the recovery potential and resilience of coral populations.

Impacts and Potential Mitigation of Road Mortality for Hedgehogs in Europe

Transport infrastructure is a pervasive element in modern landscapes and continues to expand to meet the demands of a growing human population and its associated resource consumption. Road-induced mortality is often thought to be a major contributor to the marked declines of European hedgehog populations. This review synthesizes available evidence on the population-level impacts of road mortality and the threat to population viability for the five hedgehog species in Europe. Local and national studies suggest that road mortality can cause significant depletions in population sizes, predominantly removing adult males. Traffic collisions are a probable cause of fragmentation effects, subsequently undermining ecological processes such as dispersal, as well as the genetic variance and fitness of isolated populations. Further studies are necessary to improve population estimates and explicitly examine the consequences of sex- and age-specific mortality rates. Hedgehogs have been reported to use crossing structures, such as road tunnels, yet evaluations of mitigation measures for population survival probability are largely absent. This highlights the need for robust studies that consider population dynamics and genetics in response to mitigation. In light of ongoing declines of hedgehog populations, it is paramount that applied research is prioritised and integrated into a holistic spatial planning process.

Temperature as a modulator of sexual selection

A central question in ecology and evolution is to understand why sexual selection varies so much in strength across taxa; it has long been known that ecological factors are crucial to this. Temperature is a particularly salient abiotic ecological factor that modulates a wide range of physiological, morphological and behavioural traits, impacting individuals and populations at a global taxonomic scale. Furthermore, temperature exhibits substantial temporal variation (e.g. daily, seasonally and inter-seasonally), and hence for most species in the wild sexual selection will regularly unfold in a dynamic thermal environment. Unfortunately, studies have so far almost completely neglected the role of temperature as a modulator of sexual selection. Here, we outline the main pathways through which temperature can affect the intensity and form (i.e. mechanisms) of sexual selection, via: (i) direct effects on secondary sexual traits and preferences (i.e. trait variance, opportunity for selection and trait-fitness covariance), and (ii) indirect effects on key mating parameters, sex-specific reproductive costs/benefits, trade-offs, demography and correlated abiotic factors. Building upon this framework, we show that, by focusing exclusively on the first-order effects that environmental temperature has on traits linked with individual fitness and population viability, current global warming studies may be ignoring eco-evolutionary feedbacks mediated by sexual selection. Finally, we tested the general prediction that temperature modulates sexual selection by conducting a meta-analysis of available studies experimentally manipulating temperature and reporting effects on the variance of male/female reproductive success and/or traits under sexual selection. Our results show a clear association between temperature and sexual selection measures in both sexes. In short, we suggest that studying the feedback between temperature and sexual selection processes may be vital to developing a better understanding of variation in the strength of sexual selection in nature, and its consequences for population viability in response to environmental change (e.g. global warming).

Mortality limits used in wind energy impact assessment underestimate impacts of wind farms on bird populations

The consequences of bird mortality caused by collisions with wind turbines are increasingly receiving attention. So-called acceptable mortality limits of populations, that is, those that assume that 1%-5% of additional mortality and the potential biological removal (PBR), provide seemingly clear-cut methods for establishing the reduction in population viability.We examine how the application of these commonly used mortality limits could affect populations of the Common Starling, Black-tailed Godwit, Marsh Harrier, Eurasian Spoonbill, White Stork, Common Tern, and White-tailed Eagle using stochastic density-independent and density-dependent Leslie matrix models.Results show that population viability can be very sensitive to proportionally small increases in mortality. Rather than having a negligible effect, we found that a 1% additional mortality in postfledging cohorts of our studied populations resulted in a 2%-24% decrease in the population level after 10 years. Allowing a 5% mortality increase to existing mortality resulted in a 9%-77% reduction in the populations after 10 years.When the PBR method is used in the density-dependent simulations, the proportional change in the resulting growth rate and carrying capacity was species-independent and largely determined by the recovery factor (F r). When F r = 1, a value typically used for robust populations, additional mortality resulted in a 50%-55% reduction in the equilibrium density and the resulting growth rate. When F r = 0.1, used for threatened populations, the reduction in the equilibrium density and growth rate was about 5%. Synthesis and applications. Our results show that by allowing a mortality increase from wind farm collisions according to both criteria, the population impacts of these collisions can still be severe. We propose a simple new method as an alternative that was able to estimate mortality impacts of age-structured stochastic density-dependent matrix models.

Long-term trends in wild-capture and population dynamics point to an uncertain future for captive elephants

Maintaining sustainable populations in captivity without supplementation through wild-capture is a major challenge in conservation that zoos and aquaria are working towards. However, the capture of wild animals continues for many purposes where conservation is not the primary focus. Wild-capture hinders long-term conservation goals by reducing remaining wild populations, but the direct and long-term indirect consequences of wild-capture for captive population viability are rarely addressed using longitudinal data. We explored the implications of changes in wild-capture on population dynamics in captivity over 54 years using a multi-generational studbook of working Asian elephants ( Elephas maximus) from Myanmar, the largest remaining captive elephant population. Here we show that population growth and birth rates declined between 1960 and 2014 with declines in wild-capture. Importantly, wild-caught females had reduced birth rates and a higher mortality risk. However, despite the disadvantages of wild-capture, the population may not be sustainable without it, with immediate declines owing to an unstable age-structure that may last for 50 years. Our results highlight the need to assess the long-term demographic consequences of wild-capture to ensure the sustainability of captive and wild populations as species are increasingly managed and conserved in altered or novel environments.

Lemur catta in small forest fragments: Which variables best predict population viability?

Habitat fragmentation is an increasingly serious issue affecting primates in most regions where they are found today. Populations of Lemur catta (ring-tailed lemur) in Madagascar's south-central region are increasingly restricted to small, isolated forest fragments, surrounded by grasslands or small-scale agriculture. Our aim was to evaluate the potential for population viability of L. catta in nine forest fragments of varying sizes (2-46 ha, population range: 6-210 animals) in south-central Madagascar, using a set of comparative, quantitative ecological measures. We used Poisson regression models with a log link function to examine the effects of fragment size, within-fragment food availability, and abundance of matrix resources (food and water sources) on L. catta population sizes and juvenile recruitment. We found a strong association between overall population size and (a) fragment size and (b) abundance of key food resources Melia azedarach and Ficus spp. (per 100 m along transect lines). Juvenile recruitment was also associated with fragment size and abundance of the two above-mentioned food resources. When the largest population, an outlier, was removed from the analysis, again, the model containing fragment size and abundance of M. azedarach and Ficus spp. was the best fitting, but the model that best predicted juvenile recruitment contained only fragment size. While our results are useful for predicting population presence and possible persistence in these fragments, both the potential for male dispersal and the extent of human disturbance within most fragments play crucial roles regarding the likelihood of long-term L. catta survival. While seven of the nine fragments were reasonably protected from human disturbance, only three offered the strong potential for male dispersal, thus the long-term viability of many of these populations is highly uncertain.

Asian primates in fragments: Understanding causes and consequences of fragmentation, and predicting primate population viability

Ongoing efforts to conserve the Asian primates are severely challenged by increasing rates of habitat loss and fragmentation. Underlying drivers such as rapid economic and population growth throughout much of South, East, and Southeast Asia have confined several populations of Asian primates to isolated fragments. Conservation efforts for these primates are partly hampered by a poor understanding of fragmentation, resulting in an inability to draw up effective long-term conservation responses. In this manuscript, I show that fragmentation can be understood better when treated both as stress and a threat. Moreover, despite a myriad of causes of fragmentation reported, most are broad descriptions or subject to various interpretations. Here I describe the use of the IUCN-CMP Unified Classifications of Direct Threats Version 3.2, a convenient and universal tool, for more precise identification of the causes and consequences of fragmentation for Asian primates. I further describe the interrelated variables influencing the persistence of Asian primates in fragments, and the conditions affecting these variables.

Sexual selection, environmental robustness, and evolutionary demography of maladapted populations: A test using experimental evolution in seed beetles

Whether sexual selection impedes or aids adaptation has become an outstanding question in times of rapid environmental change and parallels the debate about how the evolution of individual traits impacts on population dynamics. The net effect of sexual selection on population viability results from a balance between genetic benefits of "good-genes" effects and costs of sexual conflict. Depending on how these facets of sexual selection are affected under environmental change, extinction of maladapted populations could be either avoided or accelerated. Here, we evolved seed beetles under three alternative mating regimes to disentangle the contributions of sexual selection, fecundity selection, and male-female coevolution to individual reproductive success and population fitness. We compared these contributions between the ancestral environment and two stressful environments (elevated temperature and a host plant shift). We found evidence that sexual selection on males had positive genetic effects on female fitness components across environments, supporting good-genes sexual selection. Interestingly, however, when males evolved under sexual selection with fecundity selection removed, they became more robust to both temperature and host plant stress compared to their conspecific females and males from the other evolution regimes that applied fecundity selection. We quantified the population-level consequences of this sex-specific adaptation and found evidence that the cost of sociosexual interactions in terms of reduced offspring production was higher in the regime applying only sexual selection to males. Moreover, the cost tended to be more pronounced at the elevated temperature to which males from the regime were more robust compared to their conspecific females. These results illustrate the tension between individual-level adaptation and population-level viability in sexually reproducing species and suggest that the relative efficacies of sexual selection and fecundity selection can cause inherent sex differences in environmental robustness that may impact demography of maladapted populations.

Individual and temporal variation in pathogen load predicts long-term impacts of an emerging infectious disease

Emerging infectious diseases increasingly threaten wildlife populations. Most studies focus on managing short-term epidemic properties, such as controlling early outbreaks. Predicting long-term endemic characteristics with limited retrospective data is more challenging. We used individual-based modeling informed by individual variation in pathogen load and transmissibility to predict long-term impacts of a lethal, transmissible cancer on Tasmanian devil (Sarcophilus harrisii) populations. For this, we employed approximate Bayesian computation to identify model scenarios that best matched known epidemiological and demographic system properties derived from 10 yr of data after disease emergence, enabling us to forecast future system dynamics. We show that the dramatic devil population declines observed thus far are likely attributable to transient dynamics (initial dynamics after disease emergence). Only 21% of matching scenarios led to devil extinction within 100 yr following devil facial tumor disease (DFTD) introduction, whereas DFTD faded out in 57% of simulations. In the remaining 22% of simulations, disease and host coexisted for at least 100 yr, usually with long-period oscillations. Our findings show that pathogen extirpation or host-pathogen coexistence are much more likely than the DFTD-induced devil extinction, with crucial management ramifications. Accounting for individual-level disease progression and the long-term outcome of devil-DFTD interactions at the population-level, our findings suggest that immediate management interventions are unlikely to be necessary to ensure the persistence of Tasmanian devil populations. This is because strong population declines of devils after disease emergence do not necessarily translate into long-term population declines at equilibria. Our modeling approach is widely applicable to other host-pathogen systems to predict disease impact beyond transient dynamics.

The efficacy of good genes sexual selection under environmental change

Sexual selection can promote adaptation if sexually selected traits are reliable indicators of genetic quality. Moreover, models of good genes sexual selection suggest that, by operating more strongly in males than in females, sexual selection may purge deleterious alleles from the population at a low demographic cost, offering an evolutionary benefit to sexually reproducing populations. Here, we investigate the effect of good genes sexual selection on adaptation following environmental change. We show that the strength of sexual selection is often weakened relative to fecundity selection, reducing the suggested benefit of sexual reproduction. This result is a consequence of incorporating a simple and general mechanistic basis for how sexual selection operates under different mating systems, rendering selection on males frequency-dependent and dynamic with respect to the degree of environmental change. Our model illustrates that incorporating the mechanism of selection is necessary to predict evolutionary outcomes and highlights the need to substantiate previous theoretical claims with further work on how sexual selection operates in changing environments.

Combining data-derived priors with postrelease monitoring data to predict persistence of reintroduced populations

Monitoring is an essential part of reintroduction programs, but many years of data may be needed to obtain reliable population projections. This duration can potentially be reduced by incorporating prior information on expected vital rates (survival and fecundity) when making inferences from monitoring data. The prior distributions for these parameters can be derived from data for previous reintroductions, but it is important to account for site-to-site variation. We evaluated whether such informative priors improved our ability to estimate the finite rate of increase (λ) of the North Island robin (Petroica longipes) population reintroduced to Tawharanui Regional Park, New Zealand. We assessed how precision improved with each year of postrelease data added, comparing models that used informative or uninformative priors. The population grew from about 22 to 80 individuals from 2007 to 2016, with λ estimated to be 1.23 if density dependence was included in the model and 1.13 otherwise. Under either model, 7 years of data were required before the lower 95% credible limit for λ was > 1, giving confidence that the population would persist. The informative priors did not reduce this requirement. Data-derived priors are useful before reintroduction because they allow λ to be estimated in advance. However, in the case examined here, the value of the priors was overwhelmed once site-specific monitoring data became available. The Bayesian method presented is logical for reintroduced populations. It allows prior information (used to inform prerelease decisions) to be integrated with postrelease monitoring. This makes full use of the data for ongoing management decisions. However, if the priors properly account for site-to-site variation, they may have little predictive value compared with the site-specific data. This value will depend on the degree of site-to-site variation as well as the quality of the data.

Population and evolutionary dynamics in spatially structured seasonally varying environments

Increasingly imperative objectives in ecology are to understand and forecast population dynamic and evolutionary responses to seasonal environmental variation and change. Such population and evolutionary dynamics result from immediate and lagged responses of all key life‐history traits, and resulting demographic rates that affect population growth rate, to seasonal environmental conditions and population density. However, existing population dynamic and eco‐evolutionary theory and models have not yet fully encompassed within‐individual and among‐individual variation, covariation, structure and heterogeneity, and ongoing evolution, in a critical life‐history trait that allows individuals to respond to seasonal environmental conditions: seasonal migration. Meanwhile, empirical studies aided by new animal‐tracking technologies are increasingly demonstrating substantial within‐population variation in the occurrence and form of migration versus year‐round residence, generating diverse forms of ‘partial migration’ spanning diverse species, habitats and spatial scales. Such partially migratory systems form a continuum between the extreme scenarios of full migration and full year‐round residence, and are commonplace in nature.

Here, we first review basic scenarios of partial migration and associated models designed to identify conditions that facilitate the maintenance of migratory polymorphism. We highlight that such models have been fundamental to the development of partial migration theory, but are spatially and demographically simplistic compared to the rich bodies of population dynamic theory and models that consider spatially structured populations with dispersal but no migration, or consider populations experiencing strong seasonality and full obligate migration. Second, to provide an overarching conceptual framework for spatio‐temporal population dynamics, we define a ‘partially migratory meta‐population’ system as a spatially structured set of locations that can be occupied by different sets of resident and migrant individuals in different seasons, and where locations that can support reproduction can also be linked by dispersal. We outline key forms of within‐individual and among‐individual variation and structure in migration that could arise within such systems and interact with variation in individual survival, reproduction and dispersal to create complex population dynamics and evolutionary responses across locations, seasons, years and generations. Third, we review approaches by which population dynamic and eco‐evolutionary models could be developed to test hypotheses regarding the dynamics and persistence of partially migratory meta‐populations given diverse forms of seasonal environmental variation and change, and to forecast system‐specific dynamics. To demonstrate one such approach, we use an evolutionary individual‐based model to illustrate that multiple forms of partial migration can readily co‐exist in a simple spatially structured landscape. Finally, we summarise recent empirical studies that demonstrate key components of demographic structure in partial migration, and demonstrate diverse associations with reproduction and survival. We thereby identify key theoretical and empirical knowledge gaps that remain, and consider multiple complementary approaches by which these gaps can be filled in order to elucidate population dynamic and eco‐evolutionary responses to spatio‐temporal seasonal environmental variation and change.

Quantitative tools for implementing the new definition of significant portion of the range in the U.S. Endangered Species Act

In 2014, the Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) and National Marine Fisheries Service announced a new policy interpretation for the U.S. Endangered Species Act (ESA). According to the act, a species must be listed as threatened or endangered if it is determined to be threatened or endangered in a significant portion of its range (SPR). The 2014 policy seeks to provide consistency by establishing that a portion of the range should be considered significant if the associated individuals' "removal would cause the entire species to become endangered or threatened." We reviewed 20 quantitative techniques used to assess whether a portion of a species' range is significant according to the new guidance. Our assessments are based on the 3R criteria-redundancy (i.e., buffering from catastrophe), resiliency (i.e., ability to withstand stochasticity), and representation (i.e., ability to evolve)-that the FWS uses to determine if a species merits listing. We identified data needs for each quantitative technique and considered which methods could be implemented given the data limitations typical of rare species. We also identified proxies for the 3Rs that may be used with limited data. To assess potential data availability, we evaluated 7 example species by accessing data in their species status assessments, which document all the information used during a listing decision. In all species, an SPR could be evaluated with at least one metric for each of the 3Rs robustly or with substantial assumptions. Resiliency assessments appeared most constrained by limited data, and many species lacked information on connectivity between subpopulations, genetic variation, and spatial variability in vital rates. These data gaps will likely make SPR assessments for species with complex life histories or that cross national boundaries difficult. Although we reviewed techniques for the ESA, other countries require identification of significant areas and could benefit from this research.

Using the robust design framework and relative abundance to predict the population size of pallid sturgeon Scaphirhynchus albus in the lower Missouri River

Several population viability models were constructed to aid recovery in endangered Scaphirhynchus albus, but these models are dependent upon accurate and precise input parameters that are not provided with standard catch per unit effort (CPUE) indices. Nine years of sampling efforts, under the robust design framework, provided 1223 unique captures with an 18·3% recapture rate. The annual population estimates varied from 4·0-7·3 fish rkm^-1 for wild and 8·4-18·4 fish rkm^-1 for hatchery-reared S. albus. The relationship between abundance (N) and annual trot-line CPUE indices (x = 70.726y + 2·533, R²  = 0·91, P < 0·001) was used to predict an abundance of 13 616 ± 7142 s.e. S. albus in the lower Missouri River. The use of small-scale intensive sampling to develop a relationship with relative abundance indices reported here, may provide a framework for other fisheries management applications where large-scale intensive sampling is not feasible, but catch data are available.

Minimizing species extinctions through strategic planning for conservation fencing

Conservation fences are an increasingly common management action, particularly for species threatened by invasive predators. However, unlike many conservation actions, fence networks are expanding in an unsystematic manner, generally as a reaction to local funding opportunities or threats. We conducted a gap analysis of Australia's large predator-exclusion fence network by examining translocation of Australian mammals relative to their extinction risk. To address gaps identified in species representation, we devised a systematic prioritization method for expanding the conservation fence network that explicitly incorporated population viability analysis and minimized expected species' extinctions. The approach was applied to New South Wales, Australia, where the state government intends to expand the existing conservation fence network. Existing protection of species in fenced areas was highly uneven; 67% of predator-sensitive species were unrepresented in the fence network. Our systematic prioritization yielded substantial efficiencies in that it reduced expected number of species extinctions up to 17 times more effectively than ad hoc approaches. The outcome illustrates the importance of governance in coordinating management action when multiple projects have similar objectives and rely on systematic methods rather than expanding networks opportunistically.

High-resolution tide projections reveal extinction threshold in response to sea-level rise

Sea-level rise will affect coastal species worldwide, but models that aim to predict these effects are typically based on simple measures of sea level that do not capture its inherent complexity, especially variation over timescales shorter than 1 year. Coastal species might be most affected, however, by floods that exceed a critical threshold. The frequency and duration of such floods may be more important to population dynamics than mean measures of sea level. In particular, the potential for changes in the frequency and duration of flooding events to result in nonlinear population responses or biological thresholds merits further research, but may require that models incorporate greater resolution in sea level than is typically used. We created population simulations for a threatened songbird, the saltmarsh sparrow (Ammodramus caudacutus), in a region where sea level is predictable with high accuracy and precision. We show that incorporating the timing of semidiurnal high tide events throughout the breeding season, including how this timing is affected by mean sea-level rise, predicts a reproductive threshold that is likely to cause a rapid demographic shift. This shift is likely to threaten the persistence of saltmarsh sparrows beyond 2060 and could cause extinction as soon as 2035. Neither extinction date nor the population trajectory was sensitive to the emissions scenarios underlying sea-level projections, as most of the population decline occurred before scenarios diverge. Our results suggest that the variation and complexity of climate-driven variables could be important for understanding the potential responses of coastal species to sea-level rise, especially for species that rely on coastal areas for reproduction.

Demographics of polycystic kidney disease and captive population viability in pygmy hippopotamus (Choeropsis liberiensis)

Polycystic kidney disease (PKD) was previously diagnosed at necropsy in several pygmy hippopotami (Choeropsis liberiensis) from the Smithsonian National Zoo and Zoo Basel, suggesting a threat to the long-term viability of the captive population. We determined the incidence and demographics of PKD in the captive population historically; we tested if the condition is linked to pedigree; we investigated mode of inheritance; we examined effects of PKD on longevity; we conducted survival analysis; and we examined long-term population viability. Thirty-seven percent of 149 necropsied adult pygmy hippos were affected by PKD, and it was more common in females, controlling for the overall female-biased sex-ratio. Prevalence increased significantly with age, but most hippos were beyond their reproductive prime before developing clinical signs; thus fecundity was likely unaffected. PKD was linked to pedigree and may exhibit X-linked dominance, but further research is needed to definitively establish the mode of inheritance. PKD did not affect longevity, overall or within any age class. There was no significant correlation between inbreeding coefficient (F) and PKD, and the prevalence in wild-caught and captive-born animals was similar. Longevity for both captive-born and inbred hippos (F > 0) was significantly shorter than longevity for their wild-caught and non-inbred counterparts. Demographic projections indicated the extant population will likely experience a slow increase over time, provided there are no space constraints. We conclude that although PKD is an important cause of morbidity and mortality in pygmy hippos, the condition is not a primary concern for overall viability of the captive population.

Genetic Allee effects and their interaction with ecological Allee effects

It is now widely accepted that genetic processes such as inbreeding depression and loss of genetic variation can increase the extinction risk of small populations. However, it is generally unclear whether extinction risk from genetic causes gradually increases with decreasing population size or whether there is a sharp transition around a specific threshold population size. In the ecological literature, such threshold phenomena are called 'strong Allee effects' and they can arise for example from mate limitation in small populations. In this study, we aim to (i) develop a meaningful notion of a 'strong genetic Allee effect', (ii) explore whether and under what conditions such an effect can arise from inbreeding depression due to recessive deleterious mutations, and (iii) quantify the interaction of potential genetic Allee effects with the well-known mate-finding Allee effect. We define a strong genetic Allee effect as a genetic process that causes a population's survival probability to be a sigmoid function of its initial size. The inflection point of this function defines the critical population size. To characterize survival-probability curves, we develop and analyse simple stochastic models for the ecology and genetics of small populations. Our results indicate that inbreeding depression can indeed cause a strong genetic Allee effect, but only if individuals carry sufficiently many deleterious mutations (lethal equivalents). Populations suffering from a genetic Allee effect often first grow, then decline as inbreeding depression sets in and then potentially recover as deleterious mutations are purged. Critical population sizes of ecological and genetic Allee effects appear to be often additive, but even superadditive interactions are possible. Many published estimates for the number of lethal equivalents in birds and mammals fall in the parameter range where strong genetic Allee effects are expected. Unfortunately, extinction risk due to genetic Allee effects can easily be underestimated as populations with genetic problems often grow initially, but then crash later. Also interactions between ecological and genetic Allee effects can be strong and should not be neglected when assessing the viability of endangered or introduced populations.

Injecting epidemiology into population viability analysis: avian cholera transmission dynamics at an arctic seabird colony

Infectious diseases have the potential to spread rapidly and cause high mortality within populations of immunologically naïve hosts. The recent appearance of avian cholera, a highly virulent disease of birds caused by the bacterium Pasteurella multocida, at remote Arctic seabird colonies is an emerging conservation concern. Determining disease risk to population viability requires a quantitative understanding of transmission potential and the factors that regulate epidemic persistence. Estimates of the basic (R₀ ) and real-time (R_t ) reproductive number are critical in this regard - enumerating the number of secondary infections caused by each primary infection in a newly invaded host population and the decline in transmission rate as susceptible individuals are removed via mortality or immunized recovery. Here, we use data collected at a closely monitored common eider (Somateria mollissima) breeding colony located in the Canadian Arctic to examine transmission and host population dynamics. Specifically, we infer epidemic curves from daily mortality observations and use a likelihood-based procedure to estimate changes in the reproductive number over a series of annual outbreaks. These data are interpreted in relation to concurrent changes in host numbers to assess local extinction risk. Consistent with expectations for a novel pathogen invasion, case incidence increased exponentially during the initial wave of exposure (R₀  = 2·5; generation time = 6·5 days ± 1·1 SD). Disease conditions gradually abated, but only after several years of smouldering infection (R_t  ≈ 1). In total, 6194 eider deaths were recorded during outbreaks spanning eight consecutive breeding seasons. Breeding pair abundance declined by 56% from the pre-outbreak peak; however, a robust population of >4000 pairs remained intact upon epidemic fade-out. Overall, outbreak patterns were consistent with herd immunity acting as a mitigating factor governing in the extent and duration of mortality. Disease mortality is frequently modelled as a form of stochastic catastrophe in wildlife population assessments, whereas our approach gives shape to the functional response between transmission and host population dynamics. We conclude that increased emphasis on integrating epidemiological and population processes is essential to predicting the conservation impact of emerging infectious diseases in wildlife.

Benchmarking novel approaches for modelling species range dynamics

Increasing biodiversity loss due to climate change is one of the most vital challenges of the 21st century. To anticipate and mitigate biodiversity loss, models are needed that reliably project species' range dynamics and extinction risks. Recently, several new approaches to model range dynamics have been developed to supplement correlative species distribution models (SDMs), but applications clearly lag behind model development. Indeed, no comparative analysis has been performed to evaluate their performance. Here, we build on process-based, simulated data for benchmarking five range (dynamic) models of varying complexity including classical SDMs, SDMs coupled with simple dispersal or more complex population dynamic models (SDM hybrids), and a hierarchical Bayesian process-based dynamic range model (DRM). We specifically test the effects of demographic and community processes on model predictive performance. Under current climate, DRMs performed best, although only marginally. Under climate change, predictive performance varied considerably, with no clear winners. Yet, all range dynamic models improved predictions under climate change substantially compared to purely correlative SDMs, and the population dynamic models also predicted reasonable extinction risks for most scenarios. When benchmarking data were simulated with more complex demographic and community processes, simple SDM hybrids including only dispersal often proved most reliable. Finally, we found that structural decisions during model building can have great impact on model accuracy, but prior system knowledge on important processes can reduce these uncertainties considerably. Our results reassure the clear merit in using dynamic approaches for modelling species' response to climate change but also emphasize several needs for further model and data improvement. We propose and discuss perspectives for improving range projections through combination of multiple models and for making these approaches operational for large numbers of species.

Communal nesting under climate change: fitness consequences of higher incubation temperatures for a nocturnal lizard

Communal nesting lizards may be vulnerable to climate warming, particularly if air temperatures regulate nest temperatures. In southeastern Australia, velvet geckos Oedura lesueurii lay eggs communally inside rock crevices. We investigated whether increases in air temperatures could elevate nest temperatures, and if so, how this could influence hatching phenotypes, survival, and population dynamics. In natural nests, maximum daily air temperature influenced mean and maximum daily nest temperatures, implying that nest temperatures will increase under climate warming. To determine whether hotter nests influence hatchling phenotypes, we incubated eggs under two fluctuating temperature regimes to mimic current 'cold' nests (mean = 23.2 °C, range 10-33 °C) and future 'hot' nests (27.0 °C, 14-37 °C). 'Hot' incubation temperatures produced smaller hatchlings than did cold temperature incubation. We released individually marked hatchlings into the wild in 2014 and 2015, and monitored their survival over 10 months. In 2014 and 2015, hot-incubated hatchlings had higher annual mortality (99%, 97%) than cold-incubated (11%, 58%) or wild-born hatchlings (78%, 22%). To determine future trajectories of velvet gecko populations under climate warming, we ran population viability analyses in Vortex and varied annual rates of hatchling mortality within the range 78- 96%. Hatchling mortality strongly influenced the probability of extinction and the mean time to extinction. When hatchling mortality was >86%, populations had a higher probability of extinction (PE: range 0.52- 1.0) with mean times to extinction of 18-44 years. Whether future changes in hatchling survival translate into reduced population viability will depend on the ability of females to modify their nest-site choices. Over the period 1992-2015, females used the same communal nests annually, suggesting that there may be little plasticity in maternal nest-site selection. The impacts of climate change may therefore be especially severe on communal nesting species, particularly if such species occupy thermally challenging environments.

Scope for genetic rescue of an endangered subspecies though re-establishing natural gene flow with another subspecies

Genetic diversity is positively linked to the viability and evolutionary potential of species but is often compromised in threatened taxa. Genetic rescue by gene flow from a more diverse or differentiated source population of the same species can be an effective strategy for alleviating inbreeding depression and boosting evolutionary potential. The helmeted honeyeater Lichenostomus melanops cassidix is a critically endangered subspecies of the common yellow-tufted honeyeater. Cassidix has declined to a single wild population of ~130 birds, despite being subject to intensive population management over recent decades. We assessed changes in microsatellite diversity in cassidix over the last four decades and used population viability analysis to explore whether genetic rescue through hybridization with the neighbouring Lichenostomus melanops gippslandicus subspecies constitutes a viable conservation strategy. The contemporary cassidix population is characterized by low genetic diversity and effective population size (N(e) < 50), suggesting it is vulnerable to inbreeding depression and will have limited capacity to evolve to changing environments. We find that gene flow from gippslandicus to cassidix has declined substantially relative to pre-1990 levels and argue that natural levels of gene flow between the two subspecies should be restored. Allowing gene flow (~4 migrants per generation) from gippslandicus into cassidix (i.e. genetic rescue), in combination with continued annual release of captive-bred cassidix (i.e. demographic rescue), should lead to positive demographic and genetic outcomes. Although we consider the risk of outbreeding depression to be low, we recommend that genetic rescue be managed within the context of the captive breeding programme, with monitoring of outcomes.

The relative importance of reproduction and survival for the conservation of two dolphin populations

It has been proposed that in slow‐growing vertebrate populations survival generally has a greater influence on population growth than reproduction. Despite many studies cautioning against such generalizations for conservation, wildlife management for slow‐growing populations still often focuses on perturbing survival without careful evaluation as to whether those changes are likely or feasible. Here, we evaluate the relative importance of reproduction and survival for the conservation of two bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops cf aduncus) populations: a large, apparently stable population and a smaller one that is forecast to decline. We also assessed the feasibility and effectiveness of wildlife management objectives aimed at boosting either reproduction or survival. Consistent with other analytically based elasticity studies, survival had the greatest effect on population trajectories when altering vital rates by equal proportions. However, the findings of our alternative analytical approaches are in stark contrast to commonly used proportional sensitivity analyses and suggest that reproduction is considerably more important. We show that

in the stable population reproductive output is higher, and adult survival is lower;

the difference in viability between the two populations is due to the difference in reproduction;

reproductive rates are variable, whereas survival rates are relatively constant over time;

perturbations on the basis of observed, temporal variation indicate that population dynamics are much more influenced by reproduction than by adult survival;

for the apparently declining population, raising reproductive rates would be an effective and feasible tool to reverse the forecast population decline; increasing survival would be ineffective.

Our findings highlight the importance of reproduction – even in slow‐growing populations – and the need to assess the effect of natural variation in vital rates on population viability. We echo others in cautioning against generalizations based on life‐history traits and recommend that population modeling for conservation should also take into account the magnitude of vital rate changes that could be attained under alternative management scenarios.

Cost-effective conservation of an endangered frog under uncertainty

How should managers choose among conservation options when resources are scarce and there is uncertainty regarding the effectiveness of actions? Well-developed tools exist for prioritizing areas for one-time and binary actions (e.g., protect vs. not protect), but methods for prioritizing incremental or ongoing actions (such as habitat creation and maintenance) remain uncommon. We devised an approach that combines metapopulation viability and cost-effectiveness analyses to select among alternative conservation actions while accounting for uncertainty. In our study, cost-effectiveness is the ratio between the benefit of an action and its economic cost, where benefit is the change in metapopulation viability. We applied the approach to the case of the endangered growling grass frog (Litoria raniformis), which is threatened by urban development. We extended a Bayesian model to predict metapopulation viability under 9 urbanization and management scenarios and incorporated the full probability distribution of possible outcomes for each scenario into the cost-effectiveness analysis. This allowed us to discern between cost-effective alternatives that were robust to uncertainty and those with a relatively high risk of failure. We found a relatively high risk of extinction following urbanization if the only action was reservation of core habitat; habitat creation actions performed better than enhancement actions; and cost-effectiveness ranking changed depending on the consideration of uncertainty. Our results suggest that creation and maintenance of wetlands dedicated to L. raniformis is the only cost-effective action likely to result in a sufficiently low risk of extinction. To our knowledge we are the first study to use Bayesian metapopulation viability analysis to explicitly incorporate parametric and demographic uncertainty into a cost-effective evaluation of conservation actions. The approach offers guidance to decision makers aiming to achieve cost-effective conservation under uncertainty.

Bumble bee colony dynamics: quantifying the importance of land use and floral resources for colony growth and queen production

Bumble bee (Bombus) species are ecologically and economically important pollinators, and many species are in decline. In this article, we develop a mechanistic model to analyse growth trajectories of Bombus vosnesenskii colonies in relation to floral resources and land use. Queen production increased with floral resources and was higher in semi-natural areas than on conventional farms. However, the most important parameter for queen production was the colony growth rate per flower, as opposed to the average number of available flowers. This result indicates the importance of understanding mechanisms of colony growth, in order to predict queen production and enhance bumble bee population viability. Our work highlights the importance of interpreting bumble bee conservation efforts in the context of overall population dynamics and provides a framework for doing so.

Managing the Cayo Santiago rhesus macaque population: The role of density

Cayo Santiago is the oldest continuously operating free-ranging rhesus monkey colony in the world. Population control of this colony has historically been carried out by periodic live capture and removal of animals. However, the effect of such a strategy on the size, growth rate, age structure, and sex ratio of the population has not been analyzed. This study reviews past removal data and uses a population projection model to simulate the effects of different removal schemes based on Cayo Santiago demographic data from 2000-2012. The model incorporates negative density-dependence in female fertility, as well as male and female survival rates, to determine the population-level effects of selective removal by age and sex. Modeling revealed that removal of sexually immature individuals has negligible effects on the population dynamics explaining why with an initial population of 1309 in 2000 and annual removals of immature monkeys a mean annual population growth rate of 12% and a final population size of ∼1,435 individuals by 2012 (∼0.009 animal/m(2) ) was observed. With no removals, the population is expected to exhibit dampened oscillations until reaching equilibrium at ∼1,690 individuals (∼0.0111 animal/m(2) ) in 2,100. In contrast, removal of adult females (≥4 yrs) would significantly reduce the population size, but would also promote an increase in population growth rate due to density feedback. A maximum annual production of 275 births is expected when 550 adult females are present in the population. Sensitivity analyses showed that removing females, in contrast to controlling their fertility through invasive treatments would contribute the most to changes in population growth rate. Given the density compensation on fertility, stabilizing the population would require removing ∼80% of the current population of adult females. This study highlights the importance of addressing the population-level density effects, as well as sensitivity analyses, to optimize management strategies.

Population and genetic outcomes 20 years after reintroducing bobcats (Lynx rufus) to Cumberland Island, Georgia USA

In 1988-1989, 32 bobcats Lynx rufus were reintroduced to Cumberland Island (CUIS), Georgia, USA, from which they had previously been extirpated. They were monitored intensively for 3 years immediately post-reintroduction, but no estimation of the size or genetic diversity of the population had been conducted in over 20 years since reintroduction. We returned to CUIS in 2012 to estimate abundance and effective population size of the present-day population, as well as to quantify genetic diversity and inbreeding. We amplified 12 nuclear microsatellite loci from DNA isolated from scats to establish genetic profiles to identify individuals. We used spatially explicit capture-recapture population estimation to estimate abundance. From nine unique genetic profiles, we estimate a population size of 14.4 (SE = 3.052) bobcats, with an effective population size (N e) of 5-8 breeding individuals. This is consistent with predictions of a population viability analysis conducted at the time of reintroduction, which estimated the population would average 12-13 bobcats after 10 years. We identified several pairs of related bobcats (parent-offspring and full siblings), but ~75% of the pairwise comparisons were typical of unrelated individuals, and only one individual appeared inbred. Despite the small population size and other indications that it has likely experienced a genetic bottleneck, levels of genetic diversity in the CUIS bobcat population remain high compared to other mammalian carnivores. The reintroduction of bobcats to CUIS provides an opportunity to study changes in genetic diversity in an insular population without risk to this common species. Opportunities for natural immigration to the island are limited; therefore, continued monitoring and supplemental bobcat reintroductions could be used to evaluate the effect of different management strategies to maintain genetic diversity and population viability. The successful reintroduction and maintenance of a bobcat population on CUIS illustrates the suitability of translocation as a management tool for re-establishing felid populations.

A global viability assessment of the European eel

The global European eel (Anguilla anguilla) stock is critically endangered according to the IUCN, and the European Commission has urged the development of conservation plans aimed to ensure its viability. However, the complex life cycle of this panmictic species, which reproduces in the open ocean but spends most of its prereproductive life in continental waters (thus embracing a huge geographic range and a variety of habitat types), makes it difficult to assess the long-term effectiveness of conservation measures. The interplay between local and global stressors raises intriguing cross-scale conservation challenges that require a comprehensive modelling approach to be addressed. We developed a full life cycle model of the global European eel stock, encompassing both the oceanic and the continental phases of eel's life, and explicitly allowing for spatial heterogeneity in vital rates, availability of suitable habitat and settlement potential via a metapopulation approach. We calibrated the model against a long-term time series of global European eel catches and used it to hindcast the dynamics of the stock in the past and project it over the 21st century under different management scenarios. Although our analysis relies on a number of inevitable simplifying assumptions and on data that may not embrace the whole range of variation in population dynamics at the small spatiotemporal scale, our hindcast is consistent with the general pattern of decline of the stock over recent decades. The results of our projections suggest that (i) habitat loss played a major role in the European eel decline; (ii) the viability of the global stock is at risk if appropriate protection measures are not implemented; (iii) the recovery of spawner escapement requires that fishing mortality is significantly reduced; and (iv) the recovery of recruitment might not be feasible if reproductive output is not enhanced.

A global synthesis of survival estimates for microbats

Accurate survival estimates are needed to construct robust population models, which are a powerful tool for understanding and predicting the fates of species under scenarios of environmental change. Microbats make up 17% of the global mammalian fauna, yet the processes that drive differences in demographics between species are poorly understood. We collected survival estimates for 44 microbat species from the literature and constructed a model to determine the effects of reproductive, feeding and demographic traits on survival. Our trait-based model indicated that bat species which produce more young per year exhibit lower apparent annual survival, as do males and juveniles compared with females and adults, respectively. Using 8 years of monitoring data for two Australian species, we demonstrate how knowledge about the effect of traits on survival can be incorporated into Bayesian survival analyses. This approach can be applied to any group and is not restricted to bats or even mammals. The incorporation of informative priors based on traits can allow for more timely construction of population models to support management decisions and actions.

Small Ne of the Isolated and Unmanaged Horse Population on Sable Island

For small, isolated populations 2 common conservation concerns relate to genetic threats: inbreeding and negative consequences associated with loss of genetic diversity due to drift. Mitigating these threats often involves conservation actions that can be controversial, such as translocations or captive breeding programs. Although such actions have been successful in some situations, in others they have had undesirable outcomes. Here, we estimated the effective population size (N e ) of the Sable Island horses to assess the risk to this population of these genetic threats. We found surprising consistency of N e estimates across the 5 different methods used, with a mean of 48 effective individuals. This estimate falls below the 50 criterion of the "50/500 rule," below which inbreeding depression is a concern for population viability. However, simulations and knowledge of population history indicate that this population is still in its early stages of approaching equilibrium between mutation, drift, and genetic diversity; and no negative consequences have been identified that could be associated with inbreeding depression. Therefore, we do not recommend taking management action (such as translocations) at this stage. Rather, we propose continued monitoring of genetic diversity and fitness over time so that trends and any substantial changes can be detected. This represents one of the few unmanaged horse populations in the world, and therefore these data will not only alert us to serious concerns regarding their conservation status, but will also provide a wealth of information about how natural processes drive patterns of reproduction, mortality, and population growth over time.

Risk assessment of inbreeding and outbreeding depression in a captive-breeding program

Captive-breeding programs can be implemented to preserve the genetic diversity of endangered populations such that the controlled release of captive-bred individuals into the wild may promote recovery. A common difficulty, however, is that programs are founded with limited wild broodstock, and inbreeding can become increasingly difficult to avoid with successive generations in captivity. Program managers must choose between maintaining the genetic purity of populations, at the risk of inbreeding depression, or interbreeding populations, at the risk of outbreeding depression. We evaluate these relative risks in a captive-breeding program for 3 endangered populations of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar). In each of 2 years, we released juvenile F(1) and F(2) interpopulation hybrids, backcrosses, as well as inbred and noninbred within-population crosstypes into 9 wild streams. Juvenile size and survival was quantified in each year. Few crosstype effects were observed, but interestingly, the relative fitness consequences of inbreeding and outbreeding varied from year to year. Temporal variation in environmental quality might have driven some of these annual differences, by exacerbating the importance of maternal effects on juvenile fitness in a year of low environmental quality and by affecting the severity of inbreeding depression differently in different years. Nonetheless, inbreeding was more consistently associated with a negative effect on fitness, whereas the consequences of outbreeding were less predictable. Considering the challenges associated with a sound risk assessment in the wild and given that the effect of inbreeding on fitness is relatively predictable, we suggest that risk can be weighted more strongly in terms of the probable outcome of outbreeding. Factors such as genetic similarities between populations and the number of generations in isolation can sometimes be used to assess outbreeding risk, in lieu of experimentation.

Developing metapopulation connectivity criteria from genetic and habitat data to recover the endangered Mexican wolf

Restoring connectivity between fragmented populations is an important tool for alleviating genetic threats to endangered species. Yet recovery plans typically lack quantitative criteria for ensuring such population connectivity. We demonstrate how models that integrate habitat, genetic, and demographic data can be used to develop connectivity criteria for the endangered Mexican wolf (Canis lupus baileyi), which is currently being restored to the wild from a captive population descended from 7 founders. We used population viability analysis that incorporated pedigree data to evaluate the relation between connectivity and persistence for a restored Mexican wolf metapopulation of 3 populations of equal size. Decreasing dispersal rates greatly increased extinction risk for small populations (<150-200), especially as dispersal rates dropped below 0.5 genetically effective migrants per generation. We compared observed migration rates in the Northern Rocky Mountains (NRM) wolf metapopulation to 2 habitat-based effective distance metrics, least-cost and resistance distance. We then used effective distance between potential primary core populations in a restored Mexican wolf metapopulation to evaluate potential dispersal rates. Although potential connectivity was lower in the Mexican wolf versus the NRM wolf metapopulation, a connectivity rate of >0.5 genetically effective migrants per generation may be achievable via natural dispersal under current landscape conditions. When sufficient data are available, these methods allow planners to move beyond general aspirational connectivity goals or rules of thumb to develop objective and measurable connectivity criteria that more effectively support species recovery. The shift from simple connectivity rules of thumb to species-specific analyses parallels the previous shift from general minimum-viable-population thresholds to detailed viability modeling in endangered species recovery planning.

Temporal analysis of genetic structure to assess population dynamics of reintroduced swift foxes

Reintroductions are increasingly used to reestablish species, but a paucity of long-term postrelease monitoring has limited understanding of whether and when viable populations subsequently persist. We conducted temporal genetic analyses of reintroduced populations of swift foxes (Vulpes velox) in Canada (Alberta and Saskatchewan) and the United States (Montana). We used samples collected 4 years apart, 17 years from the initiation of the reintroduction, and 3 years after the conclusion of releases. To assess program success, we genotyped 304 hair samples, subsampled from the known range in 2000 and 2001, and 2005 and 2006, at 7 microsatellite loci. We compared diversity, effective population size, and genetic connectivity over time in each population. Diversity remained stable over time and there was evidence of increasing effective population size. We determined population structure in both periods after correcting for differences in sample sizes. The geographic distribution of these populations roughly corresponded with the original release locations, which suggests the release sites had residual effects on the population structure. However, given that both reintroduction sites had similar source populations, habitat fragmentation, due to cropland, may be associated with the population structure we found. Although our results indicate growing, stable populations, future connectivity analyses are warranted to ensure both populations are not subject to negative small-population effects. Our results demonstrate the importance of multiple sampling years to fully capture population dynamics of reintroduced populations. Análisis Temporal de la Estructura Genética para Evaluar la Dinámica Poblacional de Zorros (Vulpes velox) Reintroducidos.

The Trojan female technique: a novel, effective and humane approach for pest population control

Humankind's ongoing battle with pest species spans millennia. Pests cause or carry disease, damage or consume food crops and other resources, and drive global environmental change. Conventional approaches to pest management usually involve lethal control, but such approaches are costly, of varying efficiency and often have ethical issues. Thus, pest management via control of reproductive output is increasingly considered an optimal solution. One of the most successful such 'fertility control' strategies developed to date is the sterile male technique (SMT), in which large numbers of sterile males are released into a population each generation. However, this approach is time-consuming, labour-intensive and costly. We use mathematical models to test a new twist on the SMT, using maternally inherited mitochondrial (mtDNA) mutations that affect male, but not female reproductive fitness. 'Trojan females' carrying such mutations, and their female descendants, produce 'sterile-male'-equivalents under natural conditions over multiple generations. We find that the Trojan female technique (TFT) has the potential to be a novel humane approach for pest control. Single large releases and relatively few small repeat releases of Trojan females both provided effective and persistent control within relatively few generations. Although greatest efficacy was predicted for high-turnover species, the additive nature of multiple releases made the TFT applicable to the full range of life histories modelled. The extensive conservation of mtDNA among eukaryotes suggests this approach could have broad utility for pest control.

Climate change and the performance of larval coral reef fishes: the interaction between temperature and food availability

Climate-change models predict that tropical ocean temperatures will increase by 2-3°C this century and affect plankton communities that are food for marine fish larvae. Both temperature and food supply can influence development time, growth, and metabolism of marine fishes, particularly during larval stages. However, little is known of the relative importance and potential interacting effects of ocean warming and changes to food supply on the performance of larval fishes. We tested this for larvae of the coral reef anemonefish, Amphiprion percula, in an orthogonal experiment comprising three temperatures and three feeding schedules. Temperatures were chosen to represent present-day summer averages (29.2°C) and end-of-century climate change projections of +1.5°C (30.7°C) and +3°C (32.2°C). Feeding schedules were chosen to represent a reduction in access to food (fed daily, every 2 days, or every 3 days). Overall, larvae took longer to settle at higher temperatures and with less frequent feeding, and there was a significant interaction between these factors. Time to metamorphosis was fastest in the 30.7(o)C and high food availability treatment (10.5 ± 0.2 days) and slowest in the 32.2(o)C and low food availability treatment (15.6 ± 0.5 days; i.e. 50% faster). Fish from the lower feeding regimens had a lower body condition and decreased survivorship to metamorphosis. Routine oxygen consumption rates were highest for fish raised at 32.2°C and fed every third day (162 ± 107 mg O2  kg(-1) h(-1)) and lowest for fish raised at 29.2°C and fed daily (122 ± 101 mg O2 kg(-1) h(-1); i.e. 35% lower). The elevated routine oxygen consumption rate, and therefore greater energy use at higher temperatures, may leave less energy available for growth and development, resulting in the longer time to metamorphosis. Overall, these results suggest that larval fishes will be severely impacted by climate-change scenarios that predict both elevated temperatures and reduced food supply.

Beyond the Mean: Sensitivities of the Variance of Population Growth

Populations in variable environments are described by both a mean growth rate and a variance of stochastic population growth. Increasing variance will increase the width of confidence bounds around estimates of population size, growth, probability of and time to quasi-extinction. However, traditional sensitivity analyses of stochastic matrix models only consider the sensitivity of the mean growth rate. We derive an exact method for calculating the sensitivity of the variance in population growth to changes in demographic parameters. Sensitivities of the variance also allow a new sensitivity calculation for the cumulative probability of quasi-extinction. We apply this new analysis tool to an empirical dataset on at-risk polar bears to demonstrate its utility in conservation biology We find that in many cases a change in life history parameters will increase both the mean and variance of population growth of polar bears. This counterintuitive behaviour of the variance complicates predictions about overall population impacts of management interventions. Sensitivity calculations for cumulative extinction risk factor in changes to both mean and variance, providing a highly useful quantitative tool for conservation management. The mean stochastic growth rate and its sensitivities do not fully describe the dynamics of population growth. The use of variance sensitivities gives a more complete understanding of population dynamics and facilitates the calculation of new sensitivities for extinction processes.

Non-additive effects of pollen limitation and self-incompatibility reduce plant reproductive success and population viability

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Mating system is a primary determinant of the ecological and evolutionary dynamics of wild plant populations. Pollen limitation and loss of self-incompatibility genotypes can both act independently to reduce seed set and these effects are commonly observed in fragmented landscapes. This study used a simulation modelling approach to assess the interacting effects of these two processes on plant reproductive performance and population viability for a range of pollination likelihood, self-incompatibility systems and S-allele richness conditions.

METHODS

A spatially explicit, individual-based, genetic and demographic simulation model parameterized to represent a generic self-incompatible, short-lived perennial herb was used to conduct simulation experiments in which pollination probability, self-incompatibility type (gametophytic and sporophytic) and S-allele richness were systematically varied in combination to assess their independent and interacting effects on the demographic response variables of mate availability, seed set, population size and population persistence.

KEY RESULTS

Joint effects of reduced pollination probability and low S-allele richness were greater than independent effects for all demographic response variables except population persistence under high pollinator service (>50 %). At intermediate values of 15-25 % pollination probability, non-linear interactions with S-allele richness generated significant reductions in population performance beyond those expected by the simple additive effect of each independently. This was due to the impacts of reduced effective population size on the ability of populations to retain S alleles and maintain mate availability. Across a limited set of pollination and S-allele conditions (P = 0·15 and S = 20) populations with gametophytic SI showed reduced S-allele erosion relative to those with sporophytic SI, but this had limited effects on individual fecundity and translated into only modest increases in population persistence.

CONCLUSIONS

Interactions between pollen limitation and loss of S alleles have the potential to significantly reduce the viability of populations of a few hundred plants. Population decline may occur more rapidly than expected when pollination probabilities drop below 25 % and S alleles are fewer than 20 due to non-additive interactions. These are likely to be common conditions experienced by plants in small populations in fragmented landscapes and are also those under which differences in response between gameptophytic and sporophtyic systems are observed.

Climate change, phenological shifts, eco-evolutionary responses and population viability: toward a unifying predictive approach

The debate on emission targets of greenhouse gasses designed to limit global climate change has to take into account the ecological consequences. One of the clearest ecological consequences is shifts in phenology. Linking these shifts to changes in population viability under various greenhouse gasses emission scenarios requires a unifying framework. We propose a box-in-a-box modeling approach that couples population models to phenological change. This approach unifies population modeling with both ecological responses to climate change as well as evolutionary processes. We advocate a mechanistic embedded correlative approach, where the link from genes to population is established using a periodic matrix population model. This periodic model has several major advantages: (1) it can include complex seasonal behaviors allowing an easy link with phenological shifts; (2) it provides the structure of the population at each phase, including the distribution of genotypes and phenotypes, allowing a link with evolutionary processes; and (3) it can incorporate the effect of climate at different time periods. We believe that the way climatologists have approached the problem, using atmosphere-ocean coupled circulation models in which components are gradually included and linked to each other, can provide a valuable example to ecologists. We hope that ecologists will take up this challenge and that our preliminary modeling framework will stimulate research toward a unifying predictive model of the ecological consequences of climate change.