Reappraisal of serum alpha-foetoprotein as a surveillance test for hepatocellular carcinoma during entecavir treatment

EASL position paper on clinical follow-up after HCV cure

Following the advent of direct-acting antivirals (DAAs), hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection can be cured in almost all infected patients. This has led to a number of clinical questions regarding the optimal management of the millions of patients cured of HCV. This position statement provides specific guidance on the appropriate follow-up after a sustained virological response in patients without advanced fibrosis, those with compensated advanced chronic liver disease, and those with decompensated cirrhosis. Guidance on hepatocellular carcinoma risk assessment and the management of extrahepatic manifestations of HCV is also provided. Finally, guidance is provided on the monitoring and treatment of reinfection in at-risk patients. The recommendations are based on the best available evidence and are intended to help healthcare professionals involved in the management of patients after treatment for HCV.

Dynamic changes in three biomarkers predict early-stage hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with chronic hepatitis B receiving antiviral therapy

PURPOSE

Patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) remain at risk for hepatocellular carcinoma during antiviral therapy. We aimed to clarify the values of alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), lectin-reactive fraction of AFP (AFP-L3), and des-γ-carboxyprothrombin (DCP) for early warning of HCC.

METHODS

A total of 1348 CHB patients received antiviral therapy and follow-up every 26 weeks. Eighty-four patients with HCC were age-, sex-, and cirrhosis-matched with 168 controls. AFP, AFP-L3, and DCP were compared between the groups from 104 weeks before HCC diagnosis (- 104 w) to the time of diagnosis (0 w).

RESULTS

Of the 84 HCC patients, 60 (71.4%) had early-stage HCC, AFP increased from - 26 w, and AFP-L3 and DCP increased from - 78 w. However, levels were unchanged in controls. ΔAFP, ΔAFP-L3, and ΔDCP showed similar abilities for predicting HCC (P > 0.05). Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed that AFP had better diagnostic performance for HCC than AFP-L3, DCP, or their combination. The cut-off values of AFP, AFP-L3, and DCP were 5.3 ng/mL, 1.05%, and 31.5 mAU/mL, respectively. Notably, lower AFP values were required to diagnose HCC in patients with detectable HBV DNA (4.1 ng/mL) or elevated alanine aminotransferase (5.2 ng/mL).

CONCLUSIONS

Changes in AFP, AFP-L3, and DCP can help to predict HCC in CHB patients receiving antiviral therapy. A lower AFP value is needed to diagnose HCC, especially in patients with detectable HBV DNA or elevated alanine aminotransferase.

Diagnostic and Prognostic Nomograms for Hepatocellular Carcinoma Based on PIVKA-II and Serum Biomarkers

BACKGROUND

The aim of the present study was to develop an improved diagnostic and prognostic model for HBV-associated HCC by combining AFP with PIVKA-II and other potential serum/plasma protein biomarkers.

METHODS

A total of 578 patients, including 352 patients with HBV-related HCC, 102 patients with HBV-associated liver cirrhosis (LC), 124 patients with chronic HBV, and 127 healthy subjects (HS), were enrolled in the study. The serum levels of AFP, PIVKA-II, and other laboratory parameters were collected. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression and Cox regression analyses were performed to identify independent diagnostic and prognostic factors, respectively. The diagnostic efficacy of the nomogram was evaluated using receiver operator curve (ROC) analysis and the prognostic performance was measured by Harrell's concordance index (C-index).

RESULTS

AFP and PIVKA-II levels were significantly increased in HBV-related HCC, compared with those in HBV-associated LC and chronic HBV participants (p < 0.05 and p < 0.001, respectively). The diagnostic nomogram, which included age, gender, AFP, PIVKA-II, prothrombin time (PT), and total protein (TP), discriminated patients with HBV-HCC from those with HBV-LC or chronic HBV with an AUC of 0.970. In addition, based on the univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis, PIVKA-II, γ-glutamyl transpeptidase, and albumin were found to be significantly associated with the prognosis of HBV-related HCC and were incorporated into a nomogram. The C-index of the nomogram for predicting 3-year survival in the training and validation groups was 0.75 and 0.78, respectively. The calibration curves for the probability of 3-year OS showed good agreement between the nomogram prediction and the actual observation in the training and the validation groups. Furthermore, the nomogram had a higher C-index (0.74) than that of the Child-Pugh grade (0.62), the albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) score (0.64), and Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (0.56) in all follow-up cases.

CONCLUSION

Our study suggests that the nomograms based on AFP, PIVKA-II, and potential serum protein biomarkers showed a better performance in the diagnosis and prognosis of HCC, which may help to guide therapeutic strategies and assess the prognosis of HCC.

Integrated Predictors by Propensity Scoring With Tumor Markers and Plasma Levels of microRNA-21-5p, IL-17, and IL-10 Complement Early Detection of Hepatocellular Carcinoma in Patients With Liver Cirrhosis

Objectives: The clinical usefulness of tumor markers alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and des-gamma carboxyprothrombin (DCP) in the early detection of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in patients with liver cirrhosis (LC), including those with marker decline after antiviral therapy, is limited. MicroRNAs (miRNAs) are expected to complement detection; however, their details remain unknown. Our prospective pilot study aimed to improve the surveillance of HCC high-risk LC patients by propensity scoring with tumor markers and additional predictors. Methods: Tumor markers and plasma levels of cytokines and miRNAs were observationally measured and statistically evaluated with propensity scoring in 85 eligible patients: 43 with current HCC (cHCC) including 8 with early-HCC, 22 with previous HCC cured (pHCC), and 20 with intact LC (iLC). Results: The analysis of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) showed that the best single predictor was AFP (0.794 for cHCC-discrimination and 0.771 for pHCC-discrimination). AFP-DCP integrated with miR-21-5p for cHCC-discrimination was 0.896; with IL-10 for pHCC-discrimination was 0.872, these were significantly better than those of AFP alone, independently (P < .01). The best single predictor for iLC-discrimination was IL-17 level (0.756). IL-17 integrated with AFP-DCP was 0.882, which was significantly better than that of IL-17 alone (P < .01). The positive likelihood ratio (pLR) for cHCC-discrimination by integration of AFP-DCP and miR-21-5p was 32.2. Preliminary validation analysis of early-HCCs compared to conventional AFP and DCP showed the combinations of AFP-DCP and 3 integrated predictors, miR-21-5p for cHCC-discrimination, IL-10 for pHCC-discrimination, and IL-17 for iLC-discrimination, sensitivity, specificity, and pLR, improved from 37.5% to 62.5%, 55.8% to 83.1%, and 0.85 to 3.70, respectively. Conclusion: The predictors of AFP-DCP combined with iR-21-5p, IL-10, and IL-17 by propensity scoring achieved higher discrimination of cHCCs, pHCCs, and iLCs, may be beneficial for the surveillance of early-HCCs, improving prediction of early-HCCs over conventional methods. However, further validation is required.

Non-invasive diagnosis and follow-up of chronic infection with hepatitis B virus

Diagnosis of chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection, initial staging of infection and monitoring of treated and untreated patients are mainly based on clinical, biological and imaging criteria allowing a complete non-invasive management for the majority of patients. Along to the conventional virological tools, rapid diagnostic tests and blotting paper tests for HBV DNA are validated alternatives. After diagnosis, the initial work-up should include HIV, HCV and HDV serologies, HBeAg status, and HBsAg and HBV DNA quantification. Assessment of severity (inflammation and fibrosis) is based on ALT serum levels and non-invasive evaluation of liver fibrosis by elastography or blood tests, which must be interpreted cautiously using specific cut-offs and taking into account ALT levels. Taken together, these parameters allow disease classification and treatment decision. Decision of hepatocellular carcinoma screening by ultra-sound every six months may be difficult in non-cirrhotic patients and the use of risk-scores such as PAGE-B is encouraged. Chronic HBV infection often has a dynamic and often unpredictable profile and regular monitoring is mandatory. In untreated patients, regular (3-12 months) follow-up should include ALT and HBV DNA serum levels. Periodical HBsAg quantification and non-invasive evaluation of liver fibrosis may refine disease outcome and prognosis. In treated patients, checking efficacy is mainly based on HBV DNA negativity. In patients with advanced fibrosis, evolution of liver stiffness can be useful for portal hypertension evaluation, but its improvement should not be considered to stop hepatocellular carcinoma screening. Finally, new parameters (HBV RNA, HBcrAg) are promising but their use is still restricted for research.

Reappraisal of the roles of alpha-fetoprotein in hepatocellular carcinoma surveillance using large-scale nationwide database and hospital-based information

BACKGROUND/PURPOSE

Controversies over the use of alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) for detection of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) existed from guidelines. Using large-scale database and hospital-based information, we aimed to reappraise the role of AFP in HCC surveillance, including proportion of AFP elevation by stage of HCC, additional benefit of AFP in combination of ultrasonography (US) in the detection of early HCC, and survival in early HCC with high AFP levels.

METHODS

This retrospective study enrolled 43,437 patients from database of the Taiwan Cancer Registry (TCR) and 4250 patients from Kaohsiung Chang Gung Memorial Hospital (KCGMH) between January 2011 and December 2017.

RESULTS

The HCC cases in KCGMH accounted for 9.8% of the total cases in the TCR. Among both nationwide database and hospital-based information, the proportion of early HCC patients with an AFP level of ≥20 ng/mL was approximately 40%. In KCGMH, the proportion of patients with an AFP level of ≥20 ng/mL and a virus-related (hepatitis B and C) etiology was around 41.7%; furthermore, among patients with early HCC, those with an AFP level of ≥20 ng/mL had 4.7 years of median survival and 48.3% of the 5-year overall survival rate. By hospital electronic medical records review of early HCC cohort in KCGMH, approximately 10.9% of patients with AFP levels ≥20 ng/mL had US-undetectable early HCC.

CONCLUSION

This study suggested that AFP in combination with US would add an additional benefit as being a prompted role for detection of early HCC in patients with US-undetectable HCC.

New Thresholds for AFP and Des-γ-Carboxy Prothrombin in Chronic Liver Disease Depending on the Use of Nucleoside Analogs and an Integrated Nomogram

Background

The thresholds of alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and des-gamma-carboxy prothrombin (PIVKA-II) when detecting hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients with antiviral nucleoside analog (NA) remain controversial. A relevant integrated nomogram needs to be developed.

Methods

We enrolled a consecutive series of 5666 cases diagnosed with CHB either with or without antiviral agents and randomly allocated them to the training set (n=3966, 70.00%) and the validation set (n=1700, 30.00%).

Results

In the training set, the levels of AFP and PIVKA-II of NA-treated patients were significantly lower than those of untreated patients. The most appropriate cut-off values of AFP and PIVKA-II were 151.40 ng/mL (a sensitivity of 39.77% and a specificity of 92.17%) and 35.50 mAU/mL (a sensitivity of 84.85% and a specificity of 69.43%) for NA-treated patients. As for BCLC-0/A HCC, the most appropriate cut-off values of AFP and PIVKA-II were 151.40 ng/mL and 32.50 mAU/mL for NA-treated patients, respectively. A logistic regression model composed of AFP, PIVKA-II and other clinical parameters to predict the risk of HBV-related HCC for NA-treated patients was established and verified to have an AUROC of 0.868 (95% CI, 0.827–0.909) for all-stage HCC and an AUROC of 0.856 (95% CI, 0.809–0.903) for BCLC-0/A HCC.

Conclusion

The new detection thresholds of AFP and PIVKA-II might lead to the ability to perform early detection for hepatoma in NA-treated patients and the innovative risk prediction model is a valuable tool for identifying high-risk CHB patients.

Diagnosis and treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma. Update of the consensus document of the AEEH, AEC, SEOM, SERAM, SERVEI, and SETH

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is the most common primary liver neoplasm and one of the most common causes of death in patients with cirrhosis of the liver. In parallel, with recognition of the clinical relevance of this cancer, major new developments have recently appeared in its diagnosis, prognostic assessment and in particular, in its treatment. Therefore, the Spanish Association for the Study of the Liver (AEEH) has driven the need to update the clinical practice guidelines, once again inviting all the societies involved in the diagnosis and treatment of this disease to participate in the drafting and approval of the document: Spanish Society for Liver Transplantation (SETH), Spanish Society of Diagnostic Radiology (SERAM), Spanish Society of Vascular and Interventional Radiology (SERVEI), Spanish Association of Surgeons (AEC) and Spanish Society of Medical Oncology (SEOM). The clinical practice guidelines published in 2016 and accepted as National Health System Clinical Practice Guidelines were taken as the reference documents, incorporating the most important recent advances. The scientific evidence and the strength of the recommendation is based on the GRADE system.

Modeling the time-related fluctuations of AFP and PIVKA-II serum levels in patients with cirrhosis undergoing surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND

The time-related variability of HCC biomarkers has not been investigated so far.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the changes of alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and protein induced by vitamin-K absence/antagonist-II (PIVKA-II) in patients with HCC (HCC+) as compared to patients without HCC (HCC-).

METHODS

AFP and PIVKA-II were measured by a single laboratory using an automated chemiluminescent-enzyme-immunoassay (Fujirebio Inc., Tokyo, Japan) in 1163 sera of 418 cirrhotics (31.1% HBV, 58.6% HCV, 10.3% non-viral etiology) undergoing ultrasound HCC surveillance. The mean (range) number of effective time-points available for analysis was 2.8 (2.0 to 3.0); 124 patients with HCC were matched with 294 who remained HCC free for at least 12 months after the last specimen. AFP and PIVKA-II changes were estimated over time by means of a random-effect generalized least squares (RE-GLS) regression model under the missingness at random assumption.

RESULTS

Patients with and without HCC had comparable chronic liver disease etiology and staging. AFP/PIVKA-II median (25th; 75th percentile) values at the latest time-point were 4.2 (2.6; 8.6) ng/mL/32 (25; 42) mAU/mL in HCC- and 8.4 (4.4; 32.1) ng/mL/66 (32; 192) mAU/mL in HCC+ (p< 0.001). Log10AFP and log10PIVKA-II time-changes differed in HCC+ and HCC- patients. In HCC+ patients, both log10AFP and log10PIVKA-II showed an increasing trend over time. In HCC- patients, log10PIVKA-II variations were minimal as compared to log10AFP variations. The percent increase of log10AFP at 6 months vs. baseline was 11% (95%CI 5 to 17%) and 5% (95%CI 1 to 8%) for log10PIVKA-II in HCC+vs. HCC- patients.

CONCLUSIONS

The present retrospective study of the biological variability of AFP and PIVKA-II suggests that their time-related changes may serve as potential predictors of HCC. This topic needs to be addressed by longitudinal studies.

Nucleos(t)ide analogues and Hepatitis B virus-related hepatocellular carcinoma: A literature review

Hepatitis B virus is mainly considered to cause hepatocellular carcinoma which is the fourth leading cause of cancer-related mortality worldwide. Treatment of Hepatitis B virus with nucleos(t)ide analogues can decrease the progression of the disease and subsequently decreases the incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma. In this review, we have discussed the different classes of nucleos(t)ide analogues used in the treatment of Hepatitis B virus and their relationship with the development of hepatocellular carcinoma. Furthermore, we discussed the effect of treatment of Hepatitis B virus with Nucleoside analogues (NAs) before, during and after surgery, chemoembolization, radiofrequency ablation, and chemotherapy for the treatment of hepatocellular carcinoma.

Persistently elevated alpha-fetoprotein associated with chronic hepatitis B during chemotherapy for malignant ovarian germ cell tumors: a case series and a review of the literature

Background

Alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) plays a crucial role in the management of malignant ovarian germ cell tumors (MOGCTs) and is an important reference index for chemotherapy termination. However, a high level of AFP can also be caused by several benign diseases, causing confusion and impacting treatment decisions.

Case presentation

We described four patients who were diagnosed with MOGCTs; the histologic subtype in two of them was mixed MOGCTs (yolk sac tumor with mature teratoma), while the rest was immature teratoma. The serum AFP level of each patient was abnormal before surgery, but it was still persistently elevated around 300 ng/ml even after additional cycles of chemotherapy. All patients were thoroughly evaluated, but we did not find any evidence of disease progression or residual tumors. Liver function tests were normal, whereas serum assays revealed positive of hepatitis B surface antigen, and two patients had a high level of HBV-DNA. They were chronic carriers of hepatitis B virus and never received relevant treatments. Then they were managed with tumor surveillance and the antiviral treatment. Thereafter, the AFP levels presented a slowly decreasing trend.

Conclusions

False elevation of AFP in MOGCTs is a rare condition and should be assessed with a comprehensive evaluation to avoid unnecessary treatments.

Minimal increases of serum alpha-foetoprotein herald HCC detection in Caucasian HBV cirrhotic patients under long-term oral therapy

BACKGROUND & AIMS

In Caucasian patients with compensated cirrhosis caused by hepatitis B virus (HBV), the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) developing persist despite long-term nucleos(t)ide analogs (NUC) treatment. In the surveillance of this population with persistently normal transaminases because of NUCs, the added value of serum alpha-foetoprotein (AFP) monitoring is poorly defined.

METHODS

Two hundred and fifty-eight Caucasian HCC-free patients with HBV-compensated cirrhosis who started tenofovir or entecavir while having normal serum AFP levels (≤7 ng/mL) at baseline or within the first year of treatment underwent HCC surveillance by semiannual ultrasound evaluation and serum AFP determination.

RESULTS

During 96 (18-120) months of antiviral therapy, 3947 AFP values were collected, median AFP level was 2 ng/mL. Thirty-five patients developed an HCC at an overall 8-year crude cumulative incidence of 14% (annual incidence of 2%). HCC incidence increased in parallel with increasing AFP thresholds: 24%, 36%, 64% and 92% for AFP levels after exceeding 2, 4, 6 and 7 ng/mL for the first-time. Of the 12 patients who experienced an AFP rise > 7 ng/mL, 11 developed an HCC and one had liver metastases of lung cancer. Overall, an AFP > 7 ng/mL had 99.6% specificity, 31.4% sensitivity, 91.7% PPV, 90.2% NPV, LR+ 70.1 and LR- 0.69 for HCC; this excellent specificity was maintained up to 18 months before HCC detection.

CONCLUSIONS

In Caucasian patients with HBV-compensated cirrhosis on long-term NUC, an increase in AFP over 7 ng/mL shows excellent specificity, heralding HCC development within 1 year.

Resolution of ascites and hepatic encephalopathy and absence of variceal bleeding in decompensated hepatitis C virus cirrhosis patients

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The aims of this study were to examine changes in the proportion of decompensated hepatitis C virus (HCV) cirrhosis patients with ascites, hepatic encephalopathy, and variceal bleeding at pretreatment compared to 3 and 12 months post-sustained virological response (SVR) and to compare pretreatment and post-SVR model of end-stage liver disease and Child-Pugh scores and alpha-fetoprotein levels.

METHODS

Electronic medical records of 64 decompensated HCV cirrhosis patients who received direct-acting antivirals were reviewed. The McNemar-Bowker test and the Wilcoxon-Signed Rank test were used to compare patient outcomes.

RESULTS

Ascites was resolved in 29% of patients 3 months post-SVR (65% vs 36%, P < 0.01) and in 35% of patients 12 months post-SVR (65% vs 30%, P = 0.07). Hepatic encephalopathy was resolved in 54% of patients 3 months post-SVR (70% vs 16%, P < 0.01) and in 48% of patients 12 months post-SVR (70% vs 22% P = 0.03). Variceal bleeding was absent in 32% of patients 3 months post-SVR (35% vs 3%, P < 0.01) and in 27% of patients 12 months post-SVR (35% vs 8%, P < 0.01). Alpha-fetoprotein levels were significantly reduced post-SVR, but model of end-stage liver disease and Child-Pugh scores were not.

CONCLUSIONS

Decompensated HCV cirrhosis patients who achieved SVR with direct-acting antiviral treatment had significant reductions in manifestations of hepatic decompensation sustainable up to 1 year post-SVR.

A combination of the on-treatment FIB-4 and alpha-foetoprotein predicts clinical outcomes in cirrhotic patients receiving entecavir

BACKGROUND & AIMS

This study investigates the long-term incidences and predictors of developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), cirrhotic events and mortality in cirrhotic patients receiving entecavir (ETV) therapy.

METHODS

We enrolled 481 nucleos(t)ide analogue-naïve chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients who had compensated cirrhosis upon entry and had received ETV monotherapy for >12 months.

RESULTS

The 8-year cumulative incidences of developing HCC, cirrhotic events and liver-related mortality were 26.5%, 8.62% and 10.03% respectively. Multivariate analysis revealed that diabetic mellitus (DM), higher fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) and alpha-foetoprotein (AFP) levels at 12 months of treatment, and FIB-4 increase from baseline to 12 months were independent factors of HCC. FIB-4 and AFP levels at 12 months of treatment were also independent factors of cirrhotic events and mortality. FIB-4 cut-off values of 3, 3 and 5 as well as AFP cut-offs of 5, 5, and 9 ng/mL at 12 months of treatment were optimal for predicting HCC, cirrhotic events and mortality during therapy respectively. The FIB-4 and AFP levels at 12 months of treatment were assessed for the combined risk of developing clinical outcomes. The 8-year incidences of HCC, cirrhotic events and liver-related mortality in the subgroups with low FIB-4 and AFP levels were only 5.95%, 1.03% and 2.43% respectively. DM was an independent predictor of HCC and mortality.

CONCLUSION

The combination of FIB-4 and AFP levels at 12 months of treatment is a useful marker for predicting the development of HCC, cirrhotic events and mortality in compensated cirrhotic patients with CHB who are receiving ETV therapy.

Poor adherence to hepatocellular carcinoma surveillance: A systematic review and meta-analysis of a complex issue

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance is associated with improved outcomes and long-term survival. Our goal is to evaluate adherence rates to HCC surveillance.

METHODS

We performed a systematic search of the PubMed and Scopus databases and abstract search of relevant studies from recent major liver meetings. All searches and data extraction were performed independently by two authors. Analysis was via random-effects models and multivariate meta-regression.

RESULTS

A total of 22 studies (n = 19 511) met inclusion criteria (original non-interventional studies with defined cirrhosis or chronic hepatitis B or chronic hepatitis C with advanced fibrosis populations, and surveillance tests and intervals). Overall adherence rate was 52% (95% CI 38%-66%). Adherence was significantly higher in cirrhotic patients compared to chronic hepatitis B and other high-risk patients, in European compared to North American studies, in less than 12-month compared to yearly surveillance intervals, and in prospective compared to retrospective studies (71%, 95% CI 64%-78% vs 39%, 95% CI 26%-51%, P < .001). The between-study heterogeneity of all above analyses was significant (P < .001). Only the study design (retrospective vs prospective cohort) had statistical significance in a multivariate meta-regression model (P < .05) and could account for some of the differences above.

CONCLUSIONS

Overall adherence rate to HCC surveillance was suboptimal at 52% with no significant differences by liver disease aetiology or study location in multivariate meta-regression analysis. Further research and educational efforts are needed to improve the current rate of HCC surveillance.

Impact of etiology of chronic liver disease on hepatocellular carcinoma biomarkers

BACKGROUND

The role of serum biomarkers in the surveillance of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is controversial.

OBJECTIVE

We assessed the diagnostic performances of alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) and protein-induced by vitamin-K-absence/antagonist-II (PIVKA-II) in 388 cirrhotic patients with chronic liver disease (CLD).

METHODS

Biomarkers were quantified by automated chemiluminescent-enzyme-immunoassays (Fujirebio, Tokyo, Japan) at HCC diagnosis in 258 patients (204 males; median age 66.9 years) and in 130 cirrhotics without HCC (104 males; median-age 60.6 years). CLD etiology in HCC/non-HCC was CHB in 48/35, CHC in 126/56 and Non-Viral in 84/39.

RESULTS

Overall AUROC values for AFP and PIVKA-II were 0.698 (95%CI = 0.642-0.753, P< 0.001) and 0.780 (95%CI = 0.730-0.831, P< 0.001). AFP/PIVKA-II AUROC (95%CI) were: 0.822 (0.728-0.915)/0.833 (0.739-0.926) in CHB, 0.648 (0.560-0.736)/0.732 (0.650-0.814) in CHC; 0.640 (0.540-0.740)/0.806 (0.722-0.889) in Non-Viral-CLD. AFP/PIVKA-II diagnostic accuracy was 40.5-59.8%/62.7-73.5% and combining both markers 78.2% for CHB, 77% for Non-Viral-CLD and 75% for CHC. AFP correlated with ALT in HCC patients with CHC (ρ= 0.463/P< 0.001) and Non-Viral CLD (ρ= 0.359/P= 0.047), but not in CHB (treated with antivirals). PIVKA-II correlated with tumour size independently of CLD-etiology (P< 0.001) and AFP in CHB patients only (P= 0.007).

CONCLUSION

The diagnostic performance of AFP and PIVKA-II is significantly influenced by the etiology and activity of CLD; their combination provides a better diagnostic accuracy.

Prediction model of hepatocellular carcinoma risk in Asian patients with chronic hepatitis B treated with entecavir

Background

Until now, no risk score could predict hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in nucleos(t)ide analog (NA)-treated Asian patients.

Methods

We enrolled 1325 NA-naïve chronic hepatitis B patients with entecavir monotherapy for >12 months, with 883 and 442 patients randomly assigned to the development and validation groups, respectively, in the risk model.

Results

The cumulative probabilities of HCC were 2.4%, 4.1%, and 9.9% after 2, 3, and 5 years of treatment, respectively. In the development group, age, platelet counts, and alpha-fetoprotein levels after 12 months of treatment were the independent predictors of HCC. We converted the Cox proportional hazards regression coefficients for these predictors into risk scores and developed the APA-B model, with the total risk scores ranging from 0 to 15. The risk scores accurately categorized patients with low (0–5), medium (6–9), and high (10–15) risks in the validation group (P <0.001). The areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve for predicting HCC risk after 2, 3, and 5 years were 0.877, 0.842, and 0.827, respectively, in the development group and 0.939, 0.892, and 0.862, respectively, in the validation group.

Conclusion

The proposed HCC risk prediction model exhibited excellent predictive accuracy in NA-naïve Asian patients receiving entecavir therapy.

Decrease of Alpha-fetoprotein in Patients with Cirrhosis Treated with Direct-acting Antivirals

Background and Aims: The lack of specificity has limited the role of serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) screening among patients with cirrhosis related to hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. We sought to examine whether AFP may decrease after achieving a sustained virological response (SVR) in patients with HCV-related cirrhosis. Methods: We performed a retrospective study of patients with HCV-related cirrhosis who were cured with direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy at the University of California, Los Angeles. Laboratory values, including serum AFP, were measured before and after completing the DAA treatment. Results: Fifty-six patients met the inclusion criteria, with median (interquartile range [IQR]) age of 67 (58-69) years and with 51.8% being male. All patients received DAA therapy without interferon. AFP decreased from median (IQR) 7.2 (4.2-13.4) ng/mL before DAAs to 4.2 (2.7-6.3) ng/mL at the end of treatment and 4.2 (2.9-6.8) ng/mL at 12 weeks after treatment (p < 0.001). Model for end-stage liver disease (MELD), fibrosis-4 (FIB4), and aspartate transaminase (AST) to platelet ratio index (APRI) scores at baseline were not significantly associated with AFP reduction. On multivariate analysis, platelet count, AST and total bilirubin at baseline were significantly correlated to AFP reduction (p = 0.04, 0.009 and 0.04, respectively). The higher the baseline AFP, the greater the reduction in AFP. There was no statistically significant correlation between baseline AFP and MELD, FIB4 or APRI scores. Conclusion: There was a significant decrease in AFP in patients with cirrhosis who achieved a SVR with DAAs. Given a reduction in AFP after DAA treatment, AFP should be further studied as a screening modality for HCC in patients with cirrhosis.

Clinical features of hepatitis B and C virus infections, with high α-fetoprotein levels but not hepatocellular carcinoma

The appropriate α-fetoprotein (AFP) level to confirm hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) could be 100 ng/mL; however, the clinical significance of falsely elevated AFP in patients without HCC has not been fully studied. We investigated the clinical features and outcome of patients without HCC but with high AFP levels (100 ng/mL), especially with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) or C (CHC).The sample included 124 consecutive patients with CHB (n = 97) or CHC (n = 27), with AFP levels >100 ng/mL and without HCC at baseline. Multivariate Cox proportional regression analysis was performed to determine the factors associated with AFP normalization and HCC development.During the mean 52-month follow-up, the proportion of patients with CHB with AFP normalization (90.7%) was significantly higher than the proportion of patients with CHC (59.3%, P < 0.001). Initial aspartate aminotransferase levels (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.02 per 10 U/L increase, P = 0.021) and antiviral therapy (HR = 2.89, P < 0.001) were significantly associated with AFP normalization. Of the 16 (12.9%) patients who developed HCC, hepatitis B virus infection (HR = 10.82, P = 0.001), initiation of antiviral treatment postenrollment (HR = 0.23, P = 0.030), and AFP normalization within 12 months (HR = 0.13, P = 0.011) were associated with HCC development.CHB and CHC were the most common causes of falsely elevated AFP (>100 ng/mL). With either CHB or CHC, persistent AFP elevation (>12 months), regardless of antiviral treatment, might be an important marker of HCC development.

Optimizing Surveillance Performance of Alpha-Fetoprotein by Selection of Proper Target Population in Chronic Hepatitis B

Although alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) is the most widely used biomarker in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance, disease activity may also increase AFP levels in chronic hepatitis B (CHB). Since nucleos(t)ide analog (NA) therapy may reduce not only HBV viral loads and transaminase levels but also the falsely elevated AFP levels in CHB, we tried to determine whether exposure to NA therapy influences AFP performance and whether selective application can optimize the performance of AFP testing in CHB during HCC surveillance. A retrospective cohort of 6,453 CHB patients who received HCC surveillance was constructed from the electronic clinical data warehouse. Covariates of AFP elevation were determined from 53,137 AFP measurements, and covariate-specific receiver operating characteristics regression analysis revealed that albumin levels and exposure to NA therapy were independent determinants of AFP performance. C statistics were largest in patients with albumin levels ≥ 3.7 g/dL who were followed without NA therapy during study period, whereas AFP performance was poorest when tested in patients with NA therapy during study and albumin levels were < 3.7 g/dL (difference in C statics = 0.35, p < 0.0001). Contrary to expectation, CHB patients with current or recent exposure to NA therapy showed poorer performance of AFP during HCC surveillance. Combination of concomitant albumin levels and status of NA therapy can identify subgroup of CHB patients who will show optimized AFP performance.

Circulating predictive and diagnostic biomarkers for hepatitis B virus-associated hepatocellular carcinoma

Chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infected patients have an almost 100-fold increased risk to develop hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). HCC is the fifth most common and third most deadly cancer worldwide. Up to 50% of newly diagnosed HCC cases are attributed to HBV infection. Early detection improves survival and can be achieved through regular screening. Six-monthly abdominal ultrasound, either alone or in combination with alpha-fetoprotein serum levels, has been widely endorsed for this purpose. Both techniques however yield limited diagnostic accuracy, which is not improved when they are combined. Alternative circulating or histological markers to predict or diagnose HCC are therefore urgently needed. Recent advances in systems biology technologies have enabled the identification of several new putative circulating biomarkers. Although results from studies assessing combinations of these biomarkers are promising, evidence for their clinical utility remains low. In addition, most of the studies conducted so far show limitations in design. Attention must be paid for instance to different ethnicities and different etiologies when studying biomarkers for hepatocellular carcinoma. This review provides an overview on the current understandings and recent progress in the field of diagnostic and predictive circulating biomarkers for hepatocellular carcinoma in chronically infected HBV patients and discusses the future prospects.

Alpha-Fetoprotein Detection of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Leads to a Standardized Analysis of Dynamic AFP to Improve Screening Based Detection

Detection of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) through screening can improve outcomes. However, HCC surveillance remains costly, cumbersome and suboptimal. We tested whether and how serum Alpha-Fetoprotein (AFP) should be used in HCC surveillance. Record linkage, dedicated pathways for management and AFP data-storage identified i) consecutive highly characterised cases of HCC diagnosed in 2009–14 and ii) a cohort of ongoing HCC-free patients undergoing regular HCC surveillance from 2009. These two well-defined Scottish patient cohorts enabled us to test the utility of AFP surveillance. Of 304 cases of HCC diagnosed over 6 years, 42% (129) were identified by a dedicated HCC surveillance programme. Of these 129, 47% (61) had a detectable lesion first identified by screening ultrasound (US) but 38% (49) were prompted by elevated AFP. Despite pre-HCC diagnosis AFP >20kU/L being associated with poor outcome, ‘AFP-detected’ tumours were offered potentially curative management as frequently as ‘US-detected’ HCCs; and had comparable survival. Linearity of serial log₁₀-transformed AFPs in HCC cases and in the screening ‘HCC-free’ cohort (n = 1509) provided indicators of high-risk AFP behaviour in HCC cases. An algorithm was devised in static mode, then tested dynamically. A case/control series in hepatitis C related disease demonstrated highly significant detection (p<1.72*10⁻⁵) of patients at high risk of developing HCC. These data support the use of AFP in HCC surveillance. We show proof-of-principle that an automated and further refine-able algorithmic interpretation of AFP can identify patients at higher risk of HCC. This approach could provide a cost-effective, user-friendly and much needed addition to US surveillance.

Diagnostic Performance of Alpha-Fetoprotein, Protein Induced by Vitamin K Absence, Osteopontin, Dickkopf-1 and Its Combinations for Hepatocellular Carcinoma

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) is the most widely used serum biomarker for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), despite its limitations. As complementary biomarkers, protein induced by vitamin K absence (PIVKA-II), osteopontin (OPN), and Dickkopf-1 (DKK-1) have been proposed. This study aimed to perform a head-to-head comparison of the diagnostic performance of AFP, PIVKA-II, OPN and DKK-1 as single or in combination to seek the best biomarker or panel, and to investigate the clinical factors affecting their performance.

METHODS

Using 401 stored plasma samples obtained from 208 HCC patients and 193 liver cirrhosis control patients, plasma AFP, PIVKA-II, OPN and DKK-1 levels were measured by ELISA, and receiver operating characteristic curve analyses were performed for each biomarker and for every combination of two to four markers.

RESULTS

Of the four biomarkers, AFP showed the highest area under the curve (0.786). The sensitivity and specificity for each single biomarker was 62% and 90.2% (AFP>20 ng/mL), 51.0% and 91.2% (PIVKA-II>10 ng/mL), 46.2% and 80.3% (OPN>100 ng/mL), and 50.0% and 80.8% (DKK-1>500 pg/mL), respectively. Among the combinations of two biomarkers, AFP>20 ng/mL or DKK-1>500 pg/mL showed the best diagnostic performance (sensitivity 78.4%, specificity 72.5%). Triple or quadruple combination did not improve the diagnostic performance further. The patient's age, etiology and tumor invasiveness of HCC affected the performance of each marker.

CONCLUSIONS

AFP was the most useful single biomarker for HCC diagnosis, and the combined measurement of AFP and DKK-1 could maximize the diagnostic yield. Clinical decision should be based on the consideration of various factors affecting the diagnostic performance of each biomarker. Efforts to seek novel HCC biomarkers should be continued.

The suppressive effect of nucleos(t)ide analogue treatment on the incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitis B patients

The development of nucleos(t)ide analogues (NA) has influenced hepatitis B virus management. However, the annual incidence rate during NA treatment has been reported to be 0.3-1.2% in non-cirrhosis cases and 1.8-6.0% in cirrhosis cases, indicating that the suppressive effect of NA treatment on hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) would be insufficient. Past studies, including one randomized control trial that compared lamivudine treatment with placebo, have revealed that NA treatment could suppress the incidence of HCC in patients with advanced fibrosis. However, it remains unknown whether NA treatment can suppress the incidence of HCC in chronic hepatitis patients without advanced fibrosis. The HCC incidence in patients treated with entecavir was similar to that of those treated with lamivudine, although entecavir exhibits a stronger viral suppression than lamivudine. The following risk factors related to the incidence of HCC during NA treatment have been identified: older age, male gender, pre-existing cirrhosis, a family clustering of hepatitis B virus, lower platelet counts, and higher hepatitis B core-related antigens as baseline factors and higher alpha fetoprotein levels as an on-treatment factor. Conversely, the loss of the hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) by interferon or NA was correlated with a lower HCC incidence rate. Because interferon treatment has much more effects on reducing HBsAg levels compared with NA treatment, a combination treatment with NA and pegylated interferon can bring additional reduction of HBsAg levels compared with NA monotherapy. Further study is needed to clarify this.

Liver transplantation for hepatocellular carcinoma - factors influencing outcome and disease-free survival

Hepatocellular carcinoma is one of the leading causes of cancer-related death worldwide. Liver transplantation can be a curative treatment in selected patients. However, there are several factors that influence disease-free survival after transplantation. This review addresses the pre-, intra- and postoperative factors that influence the risk of tumor recurrence after liver transplantation.

Prediction of risk for hepatocellular carcinoma by response of serum α-fetoprotein to entecavir therapy

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Serum α-fetoprotein (AFP) is frequently elevated in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) who do not have hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Entecavir (ETV) treatment reduces AFP levels in these patients, but the clinical significance of AFP response to ETV has not been fully studied. The aims of this study were to elucidate the temporal response of AFP to ETV therapy and to determine the relationship between AFP response and the subsequent development of HCC.

METHODS

All consecutive nucleos(t)ide-naïve CHB patients who started ETV therapy between March 2007 and February 2009 were selected from an electronic medical record database at a tertiary referral center (BESTCare). Clinical, biochemical, and virologic parameters were evaluated in relation to the serial AFP levels tested during ETV treatment.

RESULTS

Among the 244 enrolled patients, 66 had elevated AFP levels before ETV therapy. Low serum albumin was a significant predictor for elevated AFP. During 12 months of ETV therapy, AFP levels normalized in approximately three fourths of these patients. The decrease in AFP was delayed in patients with high baseline hepatitis B virus titers and in patients who subsequently developed HCC during ETV therapy. Incidence of HCC was similar regardless of baseline AFP levels. Among patients with elevated AFP, however, HCC developed exclusively in the subgroup where elevated AFP persisted for more than 6 months of ETV therapy.

CONCLUSIONS

Delayed AFP response to ETV may serve as an indicator of high HCC risk.