Trajectories of serum hepatitis B surface antigen kinetics in patients with chronic hepatitis B receiving long-term nucleos(t)ide analogue therapy

Predictive factors and clinical outcomes in decompensated non-cirrhotic chronic hepatitis B patients treated with entecavir or tenofovir disoproxil fumarate

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Little is known about the short-term and long-term outcomes of non-cirrhotic chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients who experience hepatic decompensation. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the clinical outcomes of decompensated non-cirrhotic CHB patients.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective study and enrolled a total of 304 decompensated non-cirrhotic CHB patients. Cox regression model was used to analyze factors associated with all-cause mortality. Additionally, the incidence of HBsAg seroclearance and its associated factors were estimated by the competing risk analysis.

RESULTS

The median follow-up time was 4.36 years (IQR 1.04-7.16). Out of the total enrolled patients, 63 (20.72 %) patients either died or underwent liver transplantation, and 14 patients achieved HBsAg seroclearance. Risk factors associated with 1-month, 3-month, and long-term all-cause mortality were the presence of ascites and hepatic encephalopathy, baseline HBV DNA levels, and MELD scores. The cumulative incidence of HBsAg seroclearance was 1.78 %, 3.72 %, 4.25 %, 5.68 %, 5.68 %, 8.28 %, and 8.28 % at the 1-year, 2-year, 3-year, 4-year, 5-year, 6-year, and 7-year follow-up, respectively. Independent predictors for HBsAg seroclearance were baseline alanine aminotransferase (ALT)≧ 25 times upper limit of normal (subdistribution hazard ratio [sHR] = 5.97; 95 %CI, 1.82-19.63; p = 0.0032) and HBV DNA <5 log10 IU/ml (sHR = 4.43; 95 %CI, 1.55-12.63; p = 0.0054).

CONCLUSIONS

The presence of ascites and hepatic encephalopathy, baseline HBV DNA levels, and MELD scores were associated with short-term and long-term all-cause mortality. Additionally, lower HBV DNA levels and higher ALT levels at baseline were independently predictive of sequential HBsAg seroclearance.

Trajectories of Serum Hepatitis B Surface antigen (HBsAg) During Treatment and Association With HBsAg Loss in Children With Hepatitis B e Antigen-Positive Chronic Hepatitis B: A Latent Class Trajectory Analysis

BACKGROUND

Changes in serum hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) during treatment are associated with HBsAg loss. However, little is known about the trajectory patterns of HBsAg in early treatment and their relationship to subsequent HBsAg loss.

METHODS

A retrospective study was conducted on 166 treatment-naive children with hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg)-positive chronic hepatitis B (CHB). Latent class trajectory analysis was used to identify trajectory groups of serum HBsAg. Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess the association between HBsAg trajectory groups and HBsAg loss.

RESULTS

The median follow-up time was 20.70 (interquartile range, 12.54-34.17) months, and HBsAg loss occurred in 70 (42.17%) of all study participants. Using latent class trajectory analysis, HBeAg-positive patients with CHB were classified into 3 trajectory groups: trajectory 1 (sustained stability, 24.70%), trajectory 2 (slow decline, 38.55%), and trajectory 3 (rapid decline, 36.75%), respectively. The risk of achieving HBsAg loss was higher in both trajectory 2 (hazard ratio, 3.65 [95% confidence interval, 1.70-7.83]) and trajectory 3 (7.27 [3.01-17.61]), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Serum HBsAg levels during early treatment can be classified into distinct trajectory groups, which may serve as an additional predictive indicator for HBsAg loss in HBeAg-positive children with CHB.

Patterns of liver fibrosis evolution in Chinese HIV/HBV co-infected adults following 5-year antiretroviral treatment: A longitudinal study using non-invasive APRI and Fib-4 scores

The long-term effects of combined antiretroviral therapy (ART) on liver fibrosis patterns in adults living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) are not well understood. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the trajectories of liver fibrosis and identify the associations of baseline variables with different patterns of liver fibrosis evolution. A total of 333 individuals with HIV/HBV co-infection and undergoing long-term ART were enrolled in this study. Demographic, clinical, and biochemical data were collected at baseline and during annual visits. Group-based trajectory models (GBTMs) were used to detect the patterns of liver fibrosis evolution based on longitudinal data of fibrosis-4 (Fib-4) and aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index (APRI) scores. Logistic regression analysis was performed to identify baseline predictors of liver fibrosis evolution. The median age of all participants was 33 years. Among them, 89.5% initially received TDF-containing ART. GBTMs identified two distinct patterns of liver fibrosis evolution using either APRI or Fib-4 scores. The majority of individuals (78.5% for APRI and 75.3% for Fib-4; pattern A) showed stable or low fibrosis with no progression, while the remaining participants showed regression from high fibrosis levels (21.5% for APRI and 24.7% for Fib-4; pattern B). Pattern A participants were younger and had higher CD4+ cell counts, higher lymphocyte cell counts, higher white blood cell counts, and lower platelet counts at baseline compared to pattern B participants. For HIV/HBV co-infected patients with varying degrees of initial liver fibrosis, long-term ART has shown distinct patterns of alleviating liver fibrosis.

Trajectories and Decline of Serum Hepatitis B Surface Antigen Predict Outcomes in Patients With Chronic Hepatitis B

Background

The kinetics of serum hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) levels during long-term nucleos(t)ide analogue (NA) therapy remains unclear. We delineated the kinetics of HBsAg and analyzed its association with long-term treatment outcomes.

Methods

We enrolled 912 treatment-naïve patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) who had received NA therapy for >12 months and analyzed the kinetic patterns through group-based trajectory models (GBTMs).

Results

The median treatment duration for the entire cohort was 60.3 months. GBTMs revealed 4 patterns in patients achieving HBsAg loss (groups 1-4) in the study population and in patients achieving HBsAg <100 IU/mL among those with HBeAg-negative CHB with baseline HBsAg ≥100 IU/mL (groups A-D). Patients in groups 1 and A had the highest rates of HBsAg loss (22.2%, 6/27) and of achieving HBsAg <100 IU/mL (47.5%, 56/118), respectively. HBsAg <40 IU/mL and <400 IU/mL at 12 months of treatment predicted group 1 and group A membership among all patients and those with HBeAg-negative CHB, respectively. Multivariable Cox regression analysis identified HBsAg trajectory group (group 1 vs groups 3 and 4: hazard ratio [HR], 179.46; P < .001; group 2 vs groups 3 and 4: HR, 24.34; P < .001) and HBsAg decline (HR, 82.14; P < .001) as independent predictors of both HBsAg loss and achieving HBsAg <100 IU/mL.

Conclusions

Serum HBsAg trajectories and decline can predict HBsAg loss and the achievement of HBsAg <100 IU/mL in patients with CHB receiving long-term NA therapy.

High accuracy model for HBsAg loss based on longitudinal trajectories of serum qHBsAg throughout long-term antiviral therapy

OBJECTIVE

Hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) loss is the optimal outcome for patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) but this rarely occurs with currently approved therapies. We aimed to develop and validate a prognostic model for HBsAg loss on treatment using longitudinal data from a large, prospectively followed, nationwide cohort.

DESIGN

CHB patients receiving nucleos(t)ide analogues as antiviral treatment were enrolled from 50 centres in China. Quantitative HBsAg (qHBsAg) testing was prospectively performed biannually per protocol. Longitudinal discriminant analysis algorithm was used to estimate the incidence of HBsAg loss, by integrating clinical data of each patient collected during follow-up.

RESULTS

In total, 6792 CHB patients who had initiated antiviral treatment 41.3 (IQR 7.6-107.6) months before enrolment and had median qHBsAg 2.9 (IQR 2.3-3.3) log10IU/mL at entry were analysed. With a median follow-up of 65.6 (IQR 51.5-84.7) months, the 5-year cumulative incidence of HBsAg loss was 2.4%. A prediction model integrating all qHBsAg values of each patient during follow-up, designated GOLDEN model, was developed and validated. The AUCs of GOLDEN model were 0.981 (95% CI 0.974 to 0.987) and 0.979 (95% CI 0.974 to 0.983) in the training and external validation sets, respectively, and were significantly better than those of a single qHBsAg measurement. GOLDEN model identified 8.5%-10.4% of patients with a high probability of HBsAg loss (5-year cumulative incidence: 17.0%-29.1%) and was able to exclude 89.6%-91.5% of patients whose incidence of HBsAg loss is 0. Moreover, the GOLDEN model consistently showed excellent performance among various subgroups.

CONCLUSION

The novel GOLDEN model, based on longitudinal qHBsAg data, accurately predicts HBsAg clearance, provides reliable estimates of functional hepatitis B virus (HBV) cure and may have the potential to stratify different subsets of patients for novel anti-HBV therapies.

Long-Term HBsAg Titer Kinetics with Entecavir/Tenofovir: Implications for Predicting Functional Cure and Low Levels

The long-term kinetics of quantitative HBsAg levels in HBV-infected patients treated with entecavir or tenofovir, as well as the role of quantitative HBsAg in predicting functional cure (HBsAg loss) and low HBsAg levels (<2 log IU/mL) remain unclear. Of some 1661 consecutively enrolled patients newly treated with entecavir or tenofovir, we analyzed 852 patients who underwent serial HBsAg level checks every 6-12 months. The primary outcomes included long-term kinetics in HBsAg levels and the rate of functional cure and achieving low HBsAg levels. Over a mean 6.3-year follow-up, the functional cure rate was 2.28% (n = 19), and 12.9% (n = 108) achieved low HBsAg levels. A significant HBsAg level reduction was seen in the first treatment year (p < 0.05), with another stepwise decrease between year 6-7. These trends were pronounced in patients with chronic hepatitis and HBeAg-positivity compared to those with cirrhosis and HBeAg-negativity, respectively. Baseline HBsAg of ≤3 log IU/mL and the first-year HBsAg reduction were key predictors for both functional cure and low HBsAg levels (p < 0.05). In conclusion, our findings elucidate the stepwise reduction in quantitative HBsAg dynamics during high-potency NA therapy (entecavir or tenofovir) along with variations based on different conditions. We also underscore the significance of quantitative HBsAg titer in predicting functional cure and low-HBsAg levels.

Trend patterns of HBsAg kinetics in chronic hepatitis B patients during nucleos(t)ide analogue therapy based on ARMA models

BACKGROUND

Trend pattern analysis are lacking for hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) kinetics in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients during nucleos(t)ide analogue (Nuc) therapy. We evaluated the trend patterns of HBsAg kinetics by time series analysis and forecasting times to HBsAg seroclearance accordingly.

METHODS

A total of 116 CHB patients with documented three-month HBsAg levels during the previous more than five years of Nuc therapy were included. The piecewise linear trends of the autoregressive-moving average (ARMA) model were used for time series analysis of HBsAg kinetics trends. Best fitted models were created for each patient using HBsAg datasets with backtracking capability. Predicted time to HBsAg seroclearance was calculated accordingly.

RESULTS

Four trend patterns of HBsAg kinetics were found: no trend (n = 22, 19.0%), single trend (n = 16, 13.8%), biphasic trend with rapid-slow decline (n = 56, 48.2%) and biphasic trend with rise-decline (n = 22, 19.0%). Except for no-trend patients, the trend became slow reduction as HBsAg declined. Only 6.1% of patients continued rapid decline when the initial HBsAg of the last trend reached <100 IU/mL. Last trend slopes < -10 and rise-decline patterns indicate greater chances of achieving HBsAg seroclearance within two years.

CONCLUSIONS

Best fitted ARMA models of HBsAg kinetics can be created individually for patients during Nuc therapy. About 67.2% patients have biphasic trend patterns, suggesting the dynamic nature of HBsAg kinetics over time. Trend patterns and last trend slopes predict individual times to HBsAg seroclearance.

[Natural history and disease progression of chronic hepatitis B virus infection]

OBJECTIVE

To better understand and revise the natural history and disease progression of chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection through analysis of a single-center large-scale cohort of indivi-duals with chronic HBV infection.

METHODS

Patients with chronic HBV infection who had undergone liver biopsy in the Fifth Medical Center of Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) General Hospital from January 2014 to October 2020 were retrospectively recruited. Based on patient's hepatitis B e antigen (HBeAg) states and pathologic diagnosis, they were categorized into four disease progression statuses (or phases according to the old-terminology in the updated guidelines of chronic hepatitis B (CHB), such as European Association for the Study of the Liver (EASL) 2017, Clinical Practice Guidelines on the Management of Hepatitis B Virus Infection: HBeAg-positive chronic HBV infection (immune tolerance), HBeAg-positive CHB (immune active HBeAg positive), HBeAg-negative chronic HBV infection (inactive carrier), and HBeAg-negative CHB (immune reactive HBeAg negative). Then the demographic, laboratory tests and liver histological results of the patients in different disease progression stages were compared. Age differences between the two groups were evaluated using Mann-Whitney U test.

RESULTS

A total of 760 eligible patients with a median age of 29 (interquartile range: 16-39) years were enrolled. Among them, 197 were underage individuals (age < 18 years) and 563 were adults; and 456 were males and 304 females. According to the pathological diagnosis, the patients were classified, and in each of the above four natural disease phases there were 173, 329, 95, and 163 individuals, respectively. Further comparison of the ages of the patients of the four disease progression statuses revealed that patients of HBeAg-negative CHB had a median age at 37 years, which was reasonably higher than those with HBeAg-positive CHB in immune active phase (37 vs. 24 years, P < 0.001), but was relatively younger than those with HBeAg-negative chronic HBV infection (37 vs. 39 years, P= 0.240).

CONCLUSION

According to this study, it could be speculated that HBeAg-negative CHB patients probably not all reactivate from individuals of HBeAg-negative chronic HBV infection. Instead, certain HBeAg-negative CHB patients may also come from HBeAg-positive CHB patients who have undergone HBeAg clearance or seroconversion and still remain in the immune active state.

Comparative biomarkers for HBsAg loss with antiviral therapy shows dominant influence of quantitative HBsAg (qHBsAg)

BACKGROUND

Biomarkers such as quantitative HBsAg (qHBsAg), quantitative hepatitis B virus (HBV) core-related antigen (qHBcrAg) and HBV RNA may be useful in predicting HBsAg loss in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) undergoing antiviral therapy.

AIM(S)

Our study evaluated qHBsAg, HBV RNA and qHBcrAg as a posthoc analysis of a randomized clinical trial of peginterferon±NA to determine their utility in predicting HBsAg loss.

METHODS

CHB patients who completed therapy with 48weeks peginterferon alpha2b ± nucleoside analogue therapy (clinicaltrial.gov NCT01928511) were evaluated at week 72 for HBsAg loss. The predictive ability of qHBsAg, qHBcrAg, HBV RNA and other variables were investigated by univariate and multivariate logistic models for HBeAg-negative patients by odds ratios, area under the curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative likelihood ratios (LR).

RESULTS

HBsAg loss occurred in 15/114(13%) HBeAg-negative CHB patients who completed 48 weeks of peginterferon. At baseline, qHBsAg was superior to HBcrAg and HBV RNA with AUC 0.916, 0.649 and 0.542, respectively. Using multivariate analysis, the model comprising treatmentarm, age, gender, baseline qHBsAg, HBcrAg and HBV RNA, weeks 4 & 8 qHBsAg had the highest AUC(0.98), but the univariate model with week 8 qHBsAg <70 IU/mL had AUC 0.96. Hence, the contributions of variables other than qHBsAg were marginal. HBV RNA and qHBcrAg were weak predictors of HBsAg loss. Kinetics of the novel markers showed only qHBsAg had a good relationship with HBsAg loss while HBV RNA had a marginal relationship and HBcrAg did not change at all, and none had a good relationship with viral rebound.

CONCLUSIONS

On-treatment biomarker predictors were better than baseline ones, and the best predictor of HBsAg loss at 72 weeks was week 8 qHBsAg <70 IU/mL.

Editorial: biomarkers in HBV and prediction of treatment response

LINKED CONTENT

This article is linked to Lim et al papers. To view these articles, visit https://doi.org/10.1111/apt.16149 and https://doi.org/10.1111/apt.16226

Long-term hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) kinetics during entecavir treatment in Korean patients-Functional cure unlikely

The aim of this study was to investigate the on-treatment kinetics of quantitative HBsAg during entecavir therapy to predict the treatment period needed to achieve functional cure. From a cohort of 1009 CHB treatment-naïve patients who were started on entecavir, the kinetics of quantitative HBsAg decline was assessed in 410 patients by a linear mixed model. The difference in the kinetics of quantitative HBsAg was determined based on the HBeAg positivity, HBeAg seroclearance and presence of baseline liver cirrhosis. Among the 410 patients, 213 patients (52.0%) were HBeAg-positive and 217 patients (66.1%) were male with a median age of 48 years. During a median follow-up of 53.5 months, the quantitative HBsAg level showed a slow but consistent decrease. The expected log qHBsAg levels as a function of time during entecavir treatment in HBeAg(+) and HBeAg(-) patients were 3.4773-0.0039 × Months and 3.1853-0.0036 × Months, respectively. The estimated time to clearance of quantitative HBsAg in our study was greater than 74.1 years in HBeAg-positive patients and 73.5 years in HBeAg-negative patients. The calculated time to achieve functional cure is lifelong without regard to HBeAg seroclearance or presence of liver cirrhosis. The mathematical modelling from a long-term follow-up of chronic hepatitis B patients on entecavir shows that HBsAg clearance requires decades of treatment. Thus, lifelong therapy is inevitable in entecavir-treated patients to achieve functional cure.