In-Hospital mortality varies by procedure type among cirrhosis surgery admissions

Clinical Ascites and Emergency Procedure as Determinants of Surgical Risk in Patients with Advanced Chronic Liver Disease

Background: Liver function and the presence of portal hypertension, as well as the urgency and type of surgery, are prognostic factors in advanced chronic liver disease (ACLD) patients undergoing extrahepatic major surgeries. Emergent surgery in ACLD patients has 4-10 times higher mortality rates than elective surgery. However, perioperative management improvements have been made in recent years. Methods: This is a retrospective, observational, and unicentric study of 482 patients with ACLD who underwent major surgery from 2010 to 2019. We compared baseline characteristics and postoperative mortality according to the presence of ascites, the emergency, and the surgery period. Results: In total, 140 (29%) patients had ascites, and 191 (39.6%) underwent urgent surgeries. The 90-day mortality was 2.8-fold higher in patients with ascites [HR (95%CI) 2.8 (1.6-5.0); p = 0.001] and 3-fold higher in urgent surgeries [3.0 (1.6 - 5.5); p < 0.001)]. Urgent surgeries in patients with ascites revealed the highest mortality risk [6.3 (2.7-14.8); p < 0.001)], which persisted in current (2015-2019) surgeries [12.8 (2.9-56.5); p = 0.001)]. Portal hypertension was meaningful in patients undergoing abdominal surgery. Conclusions: ascites and emergent surgery increase the mortality risk of patients with ACLD despite the recent perioperative improvements.

Preoperative risk evaluation and optimization for patients with liver disease

The prevalence of liver disease is rising and more patients with liver disease are considered for surgery each year. Liver disease poses many potential complications to surgery; therefore, assessing perioperative risk and optimizing a patient's liver health is necessary to decrease perioperative risk. Multiple scoring tools exist to help quantify perioperative risk and can be used in combination to best educate patients prior to surgery. In this review, we go over the various scoring tools and provide a guide for clinicians to best assess and optimize perioperative risk based on the etiology of liver disease.

Position paper on perioperative management and surgical risk in the patient with cirrhosis

INTRODUCTION

Management of the patient with cirrhosis of the liver that requires surgical treatment has been relatively unexplored. In Mexico, there is currently no formal stance or expert recommendations to guide clinical decision-making in this context.

AIMS

The present position paper reviews the existing evidence on risks, prognoses, precautions, special care, and specific management or procedures for patients with cirrhosis that require surgical interventions or invasive procedures. Our aim is to provide recommendations by an expert panel, based on the best published evidence, and consequently ensure timely, quality, efficient, and low-risk care for this specific group of patients.

RESULTS

Twenty-seven recommendations were developed that address preoperative considerations, intraoperative settings, and postoperative follow-up and care.

CONCLUSIONS

The assessment and care of patients with cirrhosis that require major surgical or invasive procedures should be overseen by a multidisciplinary team that includes the anesthesiologist, hepatologist, gastroenterologist, and clinical nutritionist. With respect to decompensated patients, a nephrology specialist may be required, given that kidney function is also a parameter involved in the prognosis of these patients.

Surgical risk stratification in patients with cirrhosis

Individuals with cirrhosis experience higher morbidity and mortality rates than the general population, irrespective of the type or scope of surgery. This increased risk is attributed to adverse effects of liver disease, encompassing coagulation dysfunction, altered metabolism of anesthesia and sedatives, immunologic dysfunction, hemorrhage related to varices, malnutrition and frailty, impaired wound healing, as well as diminished portal blood flow, overall hepatic circulation, and hepatic oxygen supply during surgical procedures. Therefore, a frequent clinical dilemma is whether surgical interventions should be pursued in patients with cirrhosis. Several risk scores are widely used to aid in the decision-making process, each with specific advantages and limitations. This review aims to discuss the preoperative risk factors in patients with cirrhosis, describe and compare surgical risk assessment models used in everyday practice, provide insights into the surgical risk according to the type of surgery and present recommendations for optimizing those with cirrhosis for surgical procedures. As the primary focus is on currently available risk models, the review describes the predictive value of each model, highlighting its specific advantages and limitations. Furthermore, for models that do not account for the type of surgical procedure to be performed, the review suggests incorporating both patient-related and surgery-related risks into the decision-making process. Finally, we provide an algorithm for the preoperative assessment of patients with cirrhosis before elective surgery as well as guidance perioperative management.

Preoperative TIPS and in-hospital mortality in patients with cirrhosis undergoing surgery

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Cirrhosis is associated with an increased surgical morbidity and mortality. Portal hypertension and the surgery type have been established as critical determinants of postoperative outcome. We aim to evaluate the hypothesis that preoperative transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) placement in patients with cirrhosis is associated with a lower incidence of in-house mortality/liver transplantation (LT) after surgery.

METHODS

A retrospective database search for the years 2010-2020 was carried out. We identified 64 patients with cirrhosis who underwent surgery within 3 months after TIPS placement and 131 patients with cirrhosis who underwent surgery without it (controls). Operations were categorised into low-risk and high-risk procedures. The primary endpoint was in-house mortality/LT. We analysed the influence of high-risk surgery, preoperative TIPS placement, age, sex, baseline creatinine, presence of ascites, Chronic Liver Failure Consortium Acute Decompensation (CLIF-C AD), American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA), and model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) scores on in-house mortality/LT by multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression.

RESULTS

In both the TIPS and the control cohort, most patients presented with a Child-Pugh B stage (37/64, 58% vs. 70/131, 53%) at the time of surgery, but the median MELD score was higher in the TIPS cohort (14 vs. 11 points). Low-risk and high-risk procedures amounted to 47% and 53% in both cohorts. The incidence of in-house mortality/LT was lower in the TIPS cohort (12/64, 19% vs. 52/131, 40%), also when further subdivided into low-risk (0/30, 0% vs. 10/61, 16%) and high-risk surgery (12/34, 35% vs. 42/70, 60%). Preoperative TIPS placement was associated with a lower rate for postoperative in-house mortality/LT (hazard ratio 0.44, 95% CI 0.19-1.00) on multivariable analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

A preoperative TIPS might be associated with reduced postoperative in-house mortality in selected patients with cirrhosis.

IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS

Patients with cirrhosis are at risk for more complications and a higher mortality after surgical procedures. A transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) is used to treat complications of cirrhosis, but it is unclear if it also helps to lower the risk of surgery. This study takes a look at complications and mortality of patients undergoing surgery with or without a TIPS, and we found that patients with a TIPS develop less complications and have an improved survival. Therefore, a preoperative TIPS should be considered in selected patients, especially if indicated by ascites.

Comparison of Surgical Risk Scores in a European Cohort of Patients with Advanced Chronic Liver Disease

Patients with advanced chronic liver disease (ACLD) or cirrhosis undergoing surgery have an increased risk of morbidity and mortality in contrast to the general population. This is a retrospective, observational study to evaluate the predictive capacity of surgical risk scores in European patients with ACLD. Cirrhosis was defined by the presence of thrombocytopenia with <150,000/uL and splenomegaly, and AST-to-Platelet Ratio Index >2, a nodular liver edge seen via ultrasound, transient elastography of >15 kPa, and/or signs of portal hypertension. We assessed variables related to 90-day mortality and the discrimination and calibration of current surgical scores (Child-Pugh, MELD-Na, MRS, NSQIP, and VOCAL-Penn). Only patients with ACLD and major surgeries included in VOCAL-Penn were considered (n = 512). The mortality rate at 90 days after surgery was 9.8%. Baseline disparities between the H. Mar and VOCAL-Penn cohorts were identified. Etiology, obesity, and platelet count were not associated with mortality. The VOCAL-Penn showed the best discrimination (C-statistic90D = 0.876) and overall predictive capacity (Brier90D = 0.054), but calibration was not excellent in our cohort. VOCAL-Penn was suboptimal in patients with diabetes (C-statistic30D = 0.770), without signs of portal hypertension (C-statistic30D = 0.555), or with abdominal wall (C-statistic30D = 0.608) or urgent (C-statistic180D = 0.692) surgeries. Our European cohort has shown a mortality rate after surgery similar to those described in American studies. However, some variables included in the VOCAL-Penn score were not associated with mortality, and VOCAL-Penn's discriminative ability decreases in patients with diabetes, without signs of portal hypertension, and with abdominal wall or urgent surgeries. These results should be validated in larger multicenter and prospective studies.

Evolution of risk prediction models for post-operative mortality in patients with cirrhosis

The perception of high surgical risk among patients with cirrhosis has resulted in a long-standing reluctance to operate. Risk stratification tools, first implemented over 60 years ago, have attempted to assess mortality risk among cirrhotic patients and ensure the best possible outcomes for this difficult to treat cohort. Existing postoperative risk prediction tools including the Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) and Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) provide some prediction of risk in counselling patients and their families but tend to overestimate surgical risk. More personalised prediction algorithms such as the Mayo Risk Score and VOCAL-Penn score that incorporate surgery-specific risks have demonstrated a significant improvement in prognostication and can ultimately aid multidisciplinary team determination of potential risks. The development of future risk scores will need to incorporate, first and foremost, predictive efficacy, but perhaps just as important is the feasibility and usability by front-line healthcare professionals to ensure timely and efficient prediction of risk for cirrhotic patients.

Assessing the risk of surgery in patients with cirrhosis

Patients with cirrhosis have an increased perioperative risk relative to patients without cirrhosis. This is related to numerous cirrhosis-specific factors, including severity of liver disease, impaired synthetic function, sarcopenia and malnutrition, and portal hypertension, among others. Nonhepatic comorbidities and surgery-related factors further modify the surgical risk, adding to the complexity of the preoperative assessment. In this review, we discuss the pathophysiological contributors to surgical risk in cirrhosis, key elements of the preoperative risk assessment, and application of risk prediction tools including the Child-Turcotte-Pugh score, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-Sodium, Mayo Risk Score, and the VOCAL-Penn Score. We also detail the limitations of current approaches to risk assessment and highlight areas for future research.

Perioperative Transjugular Intrahepatic Portosystemic Shunt Is Associated With Decreased Postoperative Complications in Decompensated Cirrhotics Undergoing Abdominal Surgery

BACKGROUND

Operative risk in patients with cirrhosis is related to the severity of liver disease and nature of procedure. Pre and postoperative portal decompression via transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) are logical approaches to facilitate surgery and improve postoperative outcomes. We compared postoperative outcomes of decompensated cirrhotics undergoing abdominal surgery either with or without perioperative TIPS placement.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective review of 41 decompensated cirrhotic patients who had abdominal surgery from 2010-2019 at the University of Alabama at Birmingham. Patients were stratified based on having received either perioperative TIPS or no TIPS. Demographics, laboratory data, perioperative TIPS status and postoperative complications were compared between the 2 groups using Fisher exact test and Student 2 sample t-test.

RESULTS

Group 1 consisted of 28 patients who had TIPS procedure, with 21 being preoperative and 7 being postoperative. Group 2 had 13 patients who had abdominal surgery without TIPS. When compared to those with perioperative TIPS, patients without TIPS had a significantly increased incidence of postoperative ascites (33% vs 77%, P = .0026), infection (18% vs 54%, P = .028), and acute kidney injury (AKI) (14% vs 46%, P = .0485). Additionally, postoperative Model of End Stage Liver Disease Sodium score was significantly higher in patients without TIPS (22 ± 4.74) when compared to those who had TIPS (17.14 ± 5.48) (P = .009).

DISCUSSION

Perioperative TIPS placement in decompensated cirrhotics was associated with decreased postoperative ascites, infection, and AKI when compared to those without TIPS. Further studies are needed to validate our findings.

Risk Prediction Models for Postoperative Decompensation and Infection in Patients With Cirrhosis: A Veterans Affairs Cohort Study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Patients with cirrhosis have an increased risk of postoperative mortality for a range of surgeries; however, they are also at risk of postoperative complications such as infection and cirrhosis decompensation. To date, there are no prediction scores that specifically risk stratify patients for these morbidities.

METHODS

This was a retrospective study using data of patients with cirrhosis who underwent diverse surgeries in the Veterans Health Administration. Validated algorithms and/or manual adjudication were used to ascertain postoperative decompensation and postoperative infection through 90 days. Multivariable logistic regression was used to evaluate prediction models in derivation and validation sets using variables from the recently-published Veterans Outcomes and Costs Associated with Liver Disease (VOCAL)-Penn cirrhosis surgical risk scores for postoperative mortality. Models were compared with the Mayo risk score, Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD)-sodium, and Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) scores.

RESULTS

A total 4712 surgeries were included; patients were predominantly male (97.2 %), white (63.3 %), and with alcohol-related liver disease (35.3 %). Through 90 postoperative days, 8.7 % of patients experienced interval decompensation, and 4.5 % infection. Novel VOCAL-Penn prediction models for decompensation demonstrated good discrimination for interval decompensation (C-statistic 0.762 vs 0.663 Mayo vs 0.603 MELD-sodium vs 0.560 CTP; P < .001); however, discrimination was only fair for postoperative infection (C-statistic 0.666 vs 0.592 Mayo [P = .13] vs 0.502 MELD-sodium [P < .001] vs 0.503 CTP [P < .001]). The model for interval decompensation had excellent calibration in both derivation and validation sets.

CONCLUSION

We report the derivation and internal validation of a novel, parsimonious prediction model for postoperative decompensation in patients with cirrhosis. This score demonstrated superior discrimination and calibration as compared with existing clinical standards, and will be available at www.vocalpennscore.com.

[Risk factors of surgical treatment in patients with liver cirrhosis]

OBJECTIVE

To optimize selection of patient for surgical treatment of comorbidities and complications of liver cirrhosis (LC) via analysis of perioperative risk factors.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

There were 610 patients with LC and comorbidities who underwent surgical treatment between 2015 and 2021 at the Regional Clinical Hospital No. 2. Thirty (4.9%) patients died. We analyzed Child-Pugh and MELD scores, Mayo Postoperative Surgical Risk Score and Charlson comorbidity index to predict postoperative mortality.

RESULTS

Perioperative risk in patients with LC depends on the type of surgery, degree of surgical invasiveness, liver function, and severity of LC-associated complications.

CONCLUSION

A thorough preoperative assessment of patients and adequate perioperative management are required to reduce the risk of mortality.

liver cirrhosis, surgical treatment, risk factors.

Surgical Risk Assessment in Patients with Chronic Liver Diseases

Chronic liver diseases (CLD) is one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality. The overall life span of patients with CLD has increased and so is the number of surgical procedures these patients undergo. Pathophysiological and hemodynamic changes in cirrhosis make these patients more susceptible to hypotension and hypoxia during surgery. They also have a high risk of drug induced liver injury, renal dysfunction and post-operative liver decompensation. Patients with CLD planned for elective or semi-elective surgery should undergo detailed preoperative risk assessment. Patients should be evaluated for the presence of clinically significant portal hypertension and cirrhosis. In the absence of both cirrhosis and clinically significant portal hypertension, patients with CLD can undergo surgery with minimal or low risk. Various risk assessment tools available for patients with advanced CLD are-CTP score, MELD Score, Mayo risk score, VOCAL-Penn score. A Child class C and/or Mayo risk score >15 in general is associated with high risk of post-operative mortality and elective surgery should be deferred in these patients. In patients with Child class, A and MELD 10-15 surgery is permissible with caution (except liver resection and cardiac surgery) while in Child A and MELD <10 surgery is well tolerated. VOCAL-Penn score is a new promising tool and can be the better alternative of CTP, MELD, and Mayo risk score models but more prospective studies with large patients' population are warranted. Certain surgeries like Hepatic resection, intraabdominal, and cardiothoracic have higher risk than abdominal wall hernia repair and orthopedic surgery. Laparoscopic approaches have better outcomes and less risk of liver failure than open surgery. Minimally invasive alternatives like colonic stent placement in case of obstruction can be considered in high-risk cases. Perioperative optimization and management of ascites, HE, bleeding, liver decompensation, and nutrition should be done with multidisciplinary approach. Patients with cirrhosis undergoing high risk elective surgery can develop liver failure in post-operative period and should be evaluated and counseled for liver transplantation if not contraindicated.

Pre-operative TIPS may reduce post-operative ACLF occurrence

Background & Aims

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a syndrome associated with organ failure and high short-term mortality. Recently, the role of surgery as a precipitating event for ACLF has been characterised. However, the impact of preoperative transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) placement on ACLF development in patients with cirrhosis undergoing surgery has not been investigated yet.

Methods

A total of 926 patients (363 with cirrhosis undergoing surgery and 563 patients with TIPS) were screened. Forty-five patients with preoperative TIPS (TIPS group) were 1:1 propensity matched to patients without preoperative TIPS (no-TIPS group). The primary endpoint was the development of ACLF within 28 and 90 days after surgery. The secondary endpoint was 1-year mortality. Results were confirmed by a differently 1:2 matched cohort (n = 176).

Results

Patients in the no-TIPS group had significantly higher rates of ACLF within 28 days (29 vs. 9%; p = 0.016) and 90 days (33 vs. 13%; p = 0.020) after surgery as well as significantly higher 1-year mortality (38 vs. 18%; p = 0.023) compared with those in the TIPS group. Surgery without preoperative TIPS and Chronic Liver Failure Consortium–Acute Decompensation (CLIF-C AD) score were independent predictors for 28- and 90-day ACLF development and 1-year mortality after surgery, especially in patients undergoing visceral surgery. In the no-TIPS group, a CLIF-C AD score of >45 could be identified as cut-off for patients at risk for postoperative ACLF development benefiting from TIPS.

Conclusions

This study suggests that preoperative TIPS may result in lower rates of postoperative ACLF development especially in patients undergoing visceral surgery and with a CLIF-C AD score above 45.

Lay summary

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a syndrome that is associated with high short-term mortality. Surgical procedures are a known precipitating event for ACLF. This study investigates the role of preoperative insertion of a transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) on postoperative mortality and ACLF development. Patients with TIPS insertion before a surgical procedure exhibit improved postoperative survival and lower rates of postoperative ACLF, especially in patients undergoing visceral surgery and with a high CLIF-C AD prognostic score. Thus, this study suggests preoperative TIPS insertion in those high-risk patients.

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This study investigates the impact of preoperative TIPS on postsurgical ACLF.

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Patients with preoperative TIPS, especially before visceral surgery, develop significantly lower rates of ACLF.

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Preoperative TIPS is associated with improved postsurgical survival.

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CLIF-C AD score >45 can be used as cut-off for patients at risk for postsurgical ACLF.

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Selected patients might benefit from preoperative TIPS insertion.

External Validation of the VOCAL-Penn Cirrhosis Surgical Risk Score in 2 Large, Independent Health Systems

Cirrhosis poses an increased risk of postoperative mortality, yet it remains challenging to accurately risk stratify patients in clinical practice. The VOCAL-Penn cirrhosis surgical risk score was recently developed and internally validated in the national Veterans Affairs health system; however, to date this score has not been evaluated in independent cohorts. The goal of this study was to compare the predictive performance of the VOCAL-Penn to the Mayo risk, Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD), and MELD-sodium (MELD-Na) scores in 2 large health systems. We performed a retrospective cohort study of patients with cirrhosis undergoing surgical procedures of interest at the Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center or University of Pennsylvania Health System from January 1, 2008, to October 1, 2015. The outcomes of interest were 30-day and 90-day postoperative mortality. Concordance statistics (C-statistics), calibration curves, Brier scores, and the index of prediction accuracy (IPA) were compared for each predictive model. A total of 855 surgical procedures were identified. The VOCAL-Penn score had the numerically highest C-statistic for 90-day postoperative mortality (eg, 0.82 versus 0.79 Mayo versus 0.78 MELD-Na versus 0.79 MELD), although differences were not statistically significant. Calibrations were excellent for the VOCAL-Penn, MELD, and MELD-Na; however, the Mayo score consistently overestimated risk. The VOCAL-Penn had the lowest Brier score and highest IPA at both time points, suggesting superior overall predictive model performance. In subgroup analyses of patients with higher MELD scores, the VOCAL-Penn had significantly higher C-statistics compared with the MELD and MELD-Na. The VOCAL-Penn score (www.vocalpennscore.com) has excellent discrimination and calibration for postoperative mortality among diverse patients with cirrhosis. Overall performance is superior to the Mayo, MELD, and MELD-Na scores. In contrast to the MELD/MELD-Na, the VOCAL-Penn retains excellent discrimination among patients with higher MELD scores.

The imperative for an updated cirrhosis surgical risk score

The burden of cirrhosis is increasing, as is the need for surgeries in patients with cirrhosis. These patients have increased surgical risk relative to non-cirrhotic patients. Unfortunately, currently available cirrhosis surgical risk prediction tools are non-specific, poorly calibrated, limited in scope, and/or outdated. The Mayo score is the only dedicated tool to provide discrete post-operative mortality predictions for patients with cirrhosis, however it has several limitations. First, its single-center nature does not reflect institution-specific practices that may impact surgical risk. Second, it pre-dates major surgical changes that have changed the landscape of patient selection and surgical risk. Third, it has been shown to overestimate risk in external validation. Finally, and perhaps most importantly, the score does not account for differences in risk based on surgery type. The clinical consequences of inaccurate prediction and risk overestimation are significant, as patients with otherwise acceptable risk may be denied elective surgical procedures, thereby increasing their future need for higher-risk emergent procedures. Confident evaluation of the risks and benefits of surgery in this growing population requires an updated, generalizable, and accurate cirrhosis surgical risk calculator that incorporates the type of surgery under consideration.

Frailty Is a Risk Factor for Postoperative Mortality in Patients With Cirrhosis Undergoing Diverse Major Surgeries

With a rising burden of cirrhosis surgeries, understanding risk factors for postoperative mortality is more salient than ever. The role of baseline frailty has not been assessed in this context. We evaluated the association between patient frailty and postoperative risk among diverse patients with cirrhosis and determined if frailty improves prognostication of cirrhosis surgical risk scores. This was a retrospective cohort study of U.S. veterans with cirrhosis identified between 2008 and 2016 who underwent nontransplant major surgery. Frailty was ascertained using the Hospital Frailty Risk Score (HFRS). Cox regression analysis was used to investigate the impact of patient frailty on postoperative mortality. Logistic regression was used to identify incremental changes in discrimination for postoperative mortality when frailty was added to the risk prediction models, including the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD), MELD-sodium (MELD-Na), Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP), Mayo Risk Score (MRS), and Veterans Outcomes and Costs Associated With Liver Disease (VOCAL)-Penn. A total of 804 cirrhosis surgeries were identified. The majority of patients (48.5%) had high-risk frailty at baseline (HFRS >15). In adjusted Cox regression models, categories of increasing frailty scores were associated with poorer postoperative survival. For example, intermediate-risk frailty (HFRS 5-15) conferred a 1.77-fold increased hazard relative to low-risk frailty (HFRS, <5; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.06-2.95; P = 0.03). High-risk frailty demonstrated a similarly increased hazard (hazard ratio, 1.74; 95% CI, 1.05-2.88; P = 0.03), suggesting a threshold effect of frailty on postoperative mortality. The incorporation of frailty improved discrimination of MELD, MELD-Na, and CTP for postoperative mortality, but did not do so for the MRS or VOCAL-Penn score. Patient frailty was an additional important predictor of cirrhosis surgical risk. The incorporation of preoperative frailty assessments may help to risk stratify patients, especially in settings where the MELD-Na and CTP are commonly applied.

Risk Prediction Models for Post-Operative Mortality in Patients With Cirrhosis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Patients with cirrhosis are at increased risk of postoperative mortality. Currently available tools to predict postoperative risk are suboptimally calibrated and do not account for surgery type. Our objective was to use population-level data to derive and internally validate cirrhosis surgical risk models.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study using data from the Veterans Outcomes and Costs Associated with Liver Disease (VOCAL) cohort, which contains granular data on patients with cirrhosis from 128 U.S. medical centers, merged with the Veterans Affairs Surgical Quality Improvement Program (VASQIP) to identify surgical procedures. We categorized surgeries as abdominal wall, vascular, abdominal, cardiac, chest, or orthopedic and used multivariable logistic regression to model 30-, 90-, and 180-day postoperative mortality (VOCAL-Penn models). We compared model discrimination and calibration of VOCAL-Penn to the Mayo Risk Score (MRS), Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD), Model for End-Stage Liver Disease-Sodium MELD-Na, and Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) scores. We identified 4,712 surgical procedures in 3,785 patients with cirrhosis. The VOCAL-Penn models were derived and internally validated with excellent discrimination (30-day postoperative mortality C-statistic = 0.859; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.809-0.909). Predictors included age, preoperative albumin, platelet count, bilirubin, surgery category, emergency indication, fatty liver disease, American Society of Anesthesiologists classification, and obesity. Model performance was superior to MELD, MELD-Na, CTP, and MRS at all time points (e.g., 30-day postoperative mortality C-statistic for MRS = 0.766; 95% CI, 0.676-0.855) in terms of discrimination and calibration.

CONCLUSIONS

The VOCAL-Penn models substantially improve postoperative mortality predictions in patients with cirrhosis. These models may be applied in practice to improve preoperative risk stratification and optimize patient selection for surgical procedures (www.vocalpennscore.com).

Trends in surgical volume and in-hospital mortality among United States cirrhosis hospitalizations

Background

In the aging population of patients with cirrhosis in the United States, there is a potentially increased need for surgical procedures. However, individuals with cirrhosis have increased perioperative risk relative to patients without cirrhosis. We sought to quantify temporal trends in cirrhosis surgical procedures and in-hospital mortality in relation to surgical procedure type, elective admission status and compensated vs. decompensated status.

Methods

We performed a retrospective cohort study of cirrhosis hospitalizations between 2005 and 2014 using the National Inpatient Sample. Surgical procedures of interest included cholecystectomy, hernia repair, and major abdominal, orthopedic and cardiovascular surgery. We plotted trends in volume and in-hospital mortality by procedure type, and used linear regression to test the significance of trends.

Results

While the number of cirrhosis hospitalizations increased over time, the number of surgeries per 1000 admissions decreased (b=-1.454, P<0.001). When stratified by elective admission status, elective major orthopedic surgeries significantly increased over time (b=177.9; P<0.001). In-hospital mortality rates for most surgeries were significantly higher in the non-elective vs. elective setting (each P<0.001). In patients with compensated cirrhosis, there was a significant increase in the number of orthopedic (b=272.4; P<0.001) and hernia repair surgeries over time (b=191.1; P<0.001). Overall, there was significantly greater in-hospital mortality among patients with decompensated cirrhosis (each P<0.05). Q. Please mention the exact P-value unless <0.001

Conclusions

Despite an increasing number of cirrhosis hospitalizations, the decreasing relative number of cirrhosis surgeries may indicate progressive surgical risk aversion. Future cirrhosis surgical risk scores should consider surgical procedure type, elective/non-elective status, and decompensation status.

Improving Outcomes of Bariatric Surgery in Patients With Cirrhosis in the United States: A Nationwide Assessment

INTRODUCTION

With increasing burden of obesity and liver disease in the United States, a better understanding of bariatric surgery in context of cirrhosis is needed. We described trends of hospital-based outcomes of bariatric surgery among cirrhotics and determined effect of volume status and type of surgery on these outcomes.

METHODS

In this population-based study, admissions for bariatric surgery were extracted from the National Inpatient Sample using International Classification of Diseases, 9th and 10th Revision, Clinical Modification codes from 2004 to 2016 and grouped by cirrhosis status, type of bariatric surgery, and center volume. In-hospital mortality, complications, and their trends were compared between these groups using weighted counts, odds ratios [ORs], and logistic regression.

RESULTS

Among 1,679,828 admissions for bariatric surgery, 9,802 (0.58%) had cirrhosis. Cirrhosis admissions were more likely to be in white men, had higher Elixhauser Index, and higher in-hospital complications rates including death (1.81% vs 0.17%), acute kidney injury (4.5% vs 1.2%), bleeding (2.9% vs 1.1%), and operative complications (2% vs 0.6%) (P < 0.001 for all) compared to those without cirrhosis. Overtime, restrictive surgeries have grown in number (12%-71%) and complications rates have trended down in both groups. Cirrhotics undergoing bariatric surgery at low-volume centers (<50 procedures per year) and nonrestrictive surgery had a higher inpatient mortality rate (adjusted OR 4.50, 95% confidence interval 3.14-6.45, adjusted OR 4.00, 95% confidence interval 2.68-5.97, respectively).

DISCUSSION

Contemporary data indicate that among admissions for bariatric surgery, there is a shift to restrictive-type surgeries with an improvement in-hospital complications and mortality. However, patients with cirrhosis especially those at low-volume centers have significantly higher risk of worse outcomes (see Visual abstract, Supplementary Digital Content, http://links.lww.com/AJG/B648).