GES: A validated simple score to predict the risk of HCC in patients with HCV-GT4-associated advanced liver fibrosis after oral antivirals

Risk factors and clinical outcomes in patients with HCV eradication by direct-acting antivirals: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

In hepatitis C patients with sustained virologic response (SVR) achieved after direct-acting antivirals (DAAs), the incidence of adverse clinical outcomes can be reduced but not completely eliminated. This meta-analysis aims at estimating the incidence of clinical outcomes in hepatitis C patients after achieving SVR with DAAs.

METHODS

Literature search was carried out in PubMed, Cochrane Library database, Web of Science, and Embase. The primary endpoint was the incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) occurrence, HCC recurrence, decompensated cirrhosis, and liver-related mortality, following DAA-induced elimination of hepatitis C virus (HCV). Subgroup analyses were performed according to age, gender, comorbidities, region, fibrosis stage, presence of decompensation, duration of follow-up, start point of follow-up, and HCC treatment modality. Furthermore, meta-regression was performed to explore sources of high heterogeneity.

RESULTS

Finally, 132 articles were included in our study. The pooled HCC occurrence rate was 1.50/100 person-years (95% CI, 1.35-1.65), HCC recurrence rate was 17.00/100 person-years (95% CI, 13.83-20.42), decompensation rate was 0.30/100 person-years (95% CI, 0.16-0.48), and liver-related mortality was 0.32/100 person-years (95% CI, 0.14-0.56). Meta-regression showed that duration of follow-up and fibrosis grade were important contributors to HCC occurrence. Age, start point of follow-up, and duration of follow-up were important contributors to HCC recurrence rate.

CONCLUSION

Patients with DAA-induced HCV elimination remain at risk for adverse outcomes, particularly those with cirrhosis and HCC history. The exposure to adverse outcomes tended to decrease over time, and the frequency and intensity of follow-up might be reduced in the future, which will require new scoring models to identify these individuals.

Real-World Effectiveness of All-Oral Direct-Acting Antivirals in Patients With Hepatitis C Virus-Related HCC

The association between direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatment and hepatitis C virus (HCV)-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is currently unclear. Hence, we aim to assess the association between DAA treatment and mortality rate among Medicare beneficiaries with HCV-related HCC. This retrospective cohort study screened 19,813 adults in 2013-2019 Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results data linked with Medicare data. Patients with HCV-related HCC initiating DAA therapy after their first HCC diagnosis were compared with patients with HCV-related HCC who received no HCV treatment. After inverse probability treatment weighting, multivariable Cox proportional hazards models compared mortality rates between the groups. Subgroup and sensitivity analyses were based on HCC stage (early vs. advanced), type of HCC treatment (curative, palliative, none), and DAA treatment duration. In total 3,777 patients with HCV-related HCC were identified (mean age: 68.2 years, 75.2% male, 61.8% White), of whom 19% initiated DAA therapy. Crude incidence mortality rates were 17.9 and 90.7 deaths per 100 person-years in the DAA and HCV-untreated groups, respectively. Cox regression models indicated that DAA therapy was associated with decreased risk of all-cause mortality (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.33; 95% CI 0.31-0.36). Median survival time was 45.7 (95% CI 40.9-57.9) months in the DAA group and 7.7 (95% CI 7.3-8.2) months in the HCV-untreated group (P < 0.001). All subgroup and sensitivity analyses were consistent with the main analyses. DAA therapy was associated with survival benefits for patients with HCV-related HCC regardless of the stage or type of HCC treatment and should not be withheld from this population of Medicare beneficiaries.

Hepatocellular Carcinoma After HCV Eradication with Direct-Acting Antivirals: A Reappraisal Based on New Parameters to Assess the Persistence of Risk

Approximately 95% of patients with chronic hepatitis C achieve viral eradication through direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatment. Ensuing clinical benefits include halting liver fibrosis, thereby reducing the need for liver transplantation, and decreasing both liver-related and overall mortality. It is well established that, although ameliorated, the risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) persists, particularly among patients with pre-treatment advanced fibrosis/cirrhosis. Current guidelines recommend indefinite HCC surveillance in these patients. However, a recent Markov model evaluation shows that HCC surveillance is cost-effective only for patients with cirrhosis but not so for those with F3 fibrosis, a finding which points out the need to better define the risk of HCC in hepatitis C patients after cure and further characterize pre- and post-treatment factors that might affect the incidence of HCC in this setting. We reviewed the literature analyzing this aspect. Here we summarize the main findings: male gender and older age are independent predictors of increased risk of post-cure HCC development. Moreover, non-invasive tests for hepatic fibrosis, namely FIB4, APRI, and liver stiffness, measured before and after treatment and their post-therapy change, contribute to better stratifying the risk of HCC occurrence. Furthermore, low serum albumin, as well as an AFP above 7 ng/mL prior to and after DAA therapy, also constitute independent predictors of HCC development. Considering these findings, we propose to classify patients with HCV viral eradication and advanced fibrosis/cirrhosis into groups of low, medium, or high risk of HCC and to adopt adequate surveillance strategies for each group, including protocols for abbreviated magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) for those at the highest risk.

Clinical Applications of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in Human Cancer: Is It Time to Update the Diagnostic and Predictive Models in Managing Hepatocellular Carcinoma (HCC)?

In recent years, novel findings have progressively and promisingly supported the potential role of Artificial intelligence (AI) in transforming the management of various neoplasms, including hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). HCC represents the most common primary liver cancer. Alarmingly, the HCC incidence is dramatically increasing worldwide due to the simultaneous "pandemic" spreading of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD). MASLD currently constitutes the leading cause of chronic hepatic damage (steatosis and steatohepatitis), fibrosis, and liver cirrhosis, configuring a scenario where an HCC onset has been reported even in the early disease stage. On the other hand, HCC represents a serious plague, significantly burdening the outcomes of chronic hepatitis B (HBV) and hepatitis C (HCV) virus-infected patients. Despite the recent progress in the management of this cancer, the overall prognosis for advanced-stage HCC patients continues to be poor, suggesting the absolute need to develop personalized healthcare strategies further. In this "cold war", machine learning techniques and neural networks are emerging as weapons, able to identify the patterns and biomarkers that would have normally escaped human observation. Using advanced algorithms, AI can analyze large volumes of clinical data and medical images (including routinely obtained ultrasound data) with an elevated accuracy, facilitating early diagnosis, improving the performance of predictive models, and supporting the multidisciplinary (oncologist, gastroenterologist, surgeon, radiologist) team in opting for the best "tailored" individual treatment. Additionally, AI can significantly contribute to enhancing the effectiveness of metabolomics-radiomics-based models, promoting the identification of specific HCC-pathogenetic molecules as new targets for realizing novel therapeutic regimens. In the era of precision medicine, integrating AI into routine clinical practice appears as a promising frontier, opening new avenues for liver cancer research and treatment.

Individualized HCC surveillance using risk stratification scores in advanced fibrosis and cirrhotic HCV patients who achieved SVR: Prospective study

BACKGROUND

Several HCC risk stratification scores were developed; however, none has been prospectively validated. The primary aim is to validate the clinical utility of six HCC risk scores in large prospective study of F3-4 patients achieving SVR following DAAs according to EASL guidelines. The secondary aim is to explore whether individualized risk stratification improves detection of HCC at early stages amenable to curative treatment.

METHODS

This prospective study included two cohorts: Egyptian Liver Research Institute and Hospital (ELRIAH) cohort of 463 chronic HCV patients with advanced liver disease (F3 and F4) achieved SVR with a follow-up every 6 months according to EASL guidelines using 6 simple HCC risk scores and Tanta cohort of 492 comparable patients where individualized surveillance intervals were tailored based on HCC risk assessments using GES score as follows: low-risk patients were followed yearly, intermediate-risk every 6 months and high-risk every 2-3 months.

RESULTS

All scores, except Watanabe post, successfully stratified patients into low-, intermediate- and high-risk groups, with log-rank p-value of 0.001 and Harrell's C ranging from 0.669 to 0.728. Clinical utility of these scores revealed that the highest percentage of patients classified as low risk was 42.5% using the GES, while the lowest was 8.9% using the aMAP. ELRIAH cohort, 25 patients developed HCC with 52% diagnosed at BCLC 0 and A. Tanta cohort, 35 patients developed HCC, with 80% diagnosed at BCLC 0 and A.

CONCLUSION

Individualized risk stratification using HCC risk scores was associated with improved early-stage detection and receipt of curative treatment.

Chronic Hepatitis C Infection Treated with Direct-Acting Antiviral Agents and Occurrence/Recurrence of Hepatocellular Carcinoma: Does It Still Matter?

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is a significant risk factor for liver cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Traditionally, the primary prevention strategy for HCV-associated HCC has focused on removing infection through antiviral regimes. Currently, highly effective direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) offer extraordinary success across all patient categories, including cirrhotics. Despite these advancements, recent studies have reported that even after sustained virologic response (SVR), individuals with advanced liver disease/cirrhosis at the time of DAA treatment may still face risks of HCC occurrence or recurrence. Based on this premise, this review tries to shed light on the multiple mechanisms that establish a tumorigenic environment, first, during chronic HCV infection and then, after eventual viral eradication by DAAs. Furthermore, it reviews evidence reported by recent observational studies stating that the use of DAAs is not associated with an increased risk of HCC development but rather, with a significantly lower chance of liver cancer compared with DAA-untreated patients. In addition, it seeks to provide some practical guidance for clinicians, helping them to manage HCC surveillance of patients who have achieved SVR with DAAs.

Long-Term Outcomes of Patients with Liver Cirrhosis After Eradication of Chronic Hepatitis C with Direct-Acting Antiviral Drugs (DAAs)

PURPOSE

This research was designed to determine the long-term outcomes in patients with liver cirrhosis who achieved sustained virological response (SVR) after direct-acting anti-viral drugs (DAAs) based regimens.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

This study involved 193 patients with HCV-related cirrhosis who had previously completed DAAs regimens and accomplished SVR. Clinical, laboratory, and radiological features at the first and 3rd-year follow-up after the end of treatment were analyzed. Overall survival (OS) and incidence of liver decompensation or hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) were determined at the 5-year follow-up.

RESULTS

About 68.4% of our patients with HCV-related cirrhosis were males and their mean age was 54.8 ± 7.7 years. Follow-up at the first and the 3rd-year showed significant improvements in albumin (P = 0.001), liver enzymes (P = 0.001), alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) (P < 0.001), platelet count (P = 0.001), the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score (P = 0.001 and 0.01), FIB4 and Aspartate Aminotransferase-to-Platelet Ratio Index (APRI) scores (p < 0.001). The liver stiffness (LS) also significantly improved (p = 0.001). At the 5th year, the mean OS was 58.3 months, with 14.5% and 17.6% of patients developing de-novo HCC and decompensation, respectively. The mean OS at the 5th-year follow-up was shorter in patients who developed HCC and those with liver decompensation (p = 0.001). Alfa-fetoprotein and LS are predictive factors for HCC development.

CONCLUSION

Despite achieving SVR, continuous surveillance for HCC and new-onset decompensation is mandatory in patients with liver cirrhosis.

High incidence of hepatocarcinoma in patients with advanced fibrosis treated with direct-acting antiviral agents for hepatitis C: A real-world retrospective study

BACKGROUND

Patients treated with direct-acting antivirals for hepatitis C exhibit high cure rates and improved survival. However, there is limited knowledge on their long-term clinical evolution.

AIMS

In this study, we aimed to analyse the risk of hepatocarcinoma and hepatic decompensation in patients treated with direct-acting antivirals.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective single-centre study of Portuguese patients with advanced fibrosis treated with direct-acting antiviral agents between 2015 and 2022 at a tertiary hospital.

RESULTS

Out of 460 patients, 50 (10.9 %) developed hepatocarcinoma and 36 (7.8 %) experienced hepatic decompensation. The risk for hepatocarcinoma was higher in patients aged over 55 (HR 4.87, 95 % CI 2.34-10.13, p < 0.001), with signs of portal hypertension (HR 3.83, 95 % CI 2.05-7.13, p < 0.001) and arterial hypertension (HR 1.98, 95 % CI 1.09-3.58, p = 0.024). Alcohol consumption (HR 3.30, 95 % CI 1.22-8.94, p = 0.019), signs of portal hypertension (HR 4.56, 95 % CI 2.19-9.48, p < 0.001) and hepatocarcinoma (HR 3.47, 95 % CI 1.69-7.10, p < 0.001) increased the risk of hepatic decompensation.

CONCLUSION

Our study found a high incidence of hepatocarcinoma and hepatic decompensation, along with high mortality, in patients with advanced fibrosis treated with direct-acting antivirals. We identified risk factors such as arterial hypertension, alcohol consumption, and signs of portal hypertension, highlighting their role in clinical management and patient monitoring.

Comparison of six hepatocellular carcinoma prediction models in Japanese patients after sustained virologic response undergoing rigorous surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma

BACKGROUND AND AIM

While several predictive models for the development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) have been proposed, including those for patients with chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection who have achieved sustained virologic response (SVR), the best model may differ between regions. We compared the ability of six reported models to stratify the risk of post-SVR HCC in Japan, where rigorous surveillance and early detection of HCC is common.

METHODS

A total of 6048 patients with no history of HCC who achieved SVR by oral direct-acting antiviral drugs were enrolled in this nationwide study. Patients continued HCC surveillance every 6 months after SVR. The incidence of post-SVR HCC was compared between risk groups using the aMAP score, FIB-4 index, Tahata model, GAF4 criteria, GES score, and ADRES score.

RESULTS

During the observation period with a median duration of 4.0 years after SVR, post-SVR HCC developed in 332 patients (5.5%). All six models performed significantly at stratifying the incidence of HCC. However, Harrell's C-index was below 0.8 for all models (range, 0.660-0.748), indicating insufficient stratification ability.

CONCLUSION

Although all six proposed models demonstrated a good ability to predict the development of post-SVR HCC, their ability to stratify the risk of post-SVRHCC was unsatisfactory. Further studies are necessary to identify the best model for assessing the risk of post-SVR HCC in regions where early detection of HCC is common.

Regional Differences in Clinical Presentation and Prognosis of Patients With Post-Sustained Virologic Response Hepatocellular Carcinoma

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Widespread use of direct-acting antivirals for hepatitis C virus infection has been paralleled with increased numbers of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after achieving sustained virologic response (post-SVR HCC) worldwide. Few data compare regional differences in the presentation and prognosis of patients with post-SVR HCC.

METHODS

We identified patients with advanced fibrosis (F3/F4) who developed incident post-SVR HCC between March 2015 and October 2021 from 30 sites in Europe, North America, South America, the Middle East, South Asia, East Asia, and Southeast Asia. We compared patient demographics, liver dysfunction, and tumor burden by region. We compared overall survival by region using Kaplan-Meier analysis and identified factors associated with survival using multivariable Cox regression analysis.

RESULTS

Among 8796 patients with advanced fibrosis or cirrhosis who achieved SVR, 583 (6.6%) developed incident HCC. There was marked regional variation in the proportion of patients detected by surveillance (range: 59.5%-100%), median maximum tumor diameter (range, 1.8-5.0 cm), and the proportion with multinodular HCC (range, 15.4%-60.8%). The prognosis of patients highly varied by region (hazard ratio range, 1.82-9.92), with the highest survival rates in East Asia, North America, and South America, and the lowest survival rates in the Middle East and South Asia. After adjusting for geographic region, HCC surveillance was associated with early stage detection (Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage 0/A, 71.0% vs 21.3%; P < .0001) and lower mortality rates (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.29; 95% CI, 0.18-0.46).

CONCLUSIONS

Clinical characteristics, including early stage detection, and prognosis of post-SVR HCC differed significantly across geographic regions. Surveillance utilization appears to be a high-yield intervention target to improve prognosis among patients with post-SVR HCC globally.

Noninvasive Fibrosis Assessment in Chronic Hepatitis C Infection: An Update

Liver biopsy is historically the gold standard for liver fibrosis assessment of chronic hepatitis C patients. However, with the introduction and validation of noninvasive tests (NITs) to evaluate advanced fibrosis, and the direct-acting antiviral agents for treatment of chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV), the role of NITs have become even more complex. There is now need for longitudinal monitoring and elucidation of cutoff values for prediction of liver-related complication after sustained virological response. The aim of this report is to provide a critical overview of the various NITs available for the assessment of liver fibrosis in HCV patients.

Management of dialysis patients with hepatitis C virus in the era of direct-acting antiviral therapy

The clinical use of direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) for hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection has dramatically changed management of patients with HCV liver disease since 2014; this is also true for patients undergoing dialysis. Due to the high tolerability and antiviral efficacy of anti-HCV therapy, most dialysis patients with HCV infection should currently be candidates for this treatment. Many patients with HCV antibodies no longer have HCV infection, and it is difficult to identify patients with actual HCV infection based only on HCV antibody assays. Despite the high rate of successful HCV eradication, the risk of liver-related events such as hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), the major complication of HCV infection, persists even after HCV cure, and patients at risk of HCC should undergo continuous HCC surveillance. Finally, the rarity of HCV reinfection and the survival benefit of HCV eradication in dialysis patients should be explored in further studies.

Dynamic risk assessment for hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with chronic hepatitis C

Chronic hepatitis C (HCV) is a primary cause of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Although antiviral treatment reduces risk of HCC, few studies quantify the impact of treatment on long-term risk in the era of direct-acting antivirals (DAA). Using data from the Chronic Hepatitis Cohort Study, we evaluated the impact of treatment type (DAA, interferon-based [IFN], or none) and outcome (sustained virological response [SVR] or treatment failure [TF]) on risk of HCC. We then developed and validated a predictive risk model. 17186 HCV patients were followed until HCC, death or last follow-up. We used extended landmark modelling, with time-varying covariates and propensity score justification and generalized estimating equations with a link function for discrete time-to-event data. Death was considered a competing risk. We observed 586 HCC cases across 104,000 interval-years of follow-up. SVR from DAA or IFN-based treatment reduced risk of HCC (aHR 0.13, 95% CI 0.08-0.20; and aHR 0.45, 95% CI 0.31-0.65); DAA SVR reduced risk more than IFN SVR (aHR 0.29, 95% CI 0.17-0.48). Independent of treatment, cirrhosis was the strongest risk factor for HCC (aHR 3.94, 95% CI 3.17-4.89 vs. no cirrhosis). Other risk factors included male sex, White race and genotype 3. Our six-variable predictive model had 'excellent' accuracy (AUROC 0.94) in independent validation. Our novel landmark interval-based model identified HCC risk factors across antiviral treatment status and interactions with cirrhosis. This model demonstrated excellent predictive accuracy in a large, racially diverse cohort of patients and could be adapted for 'real world' HCC monitoring.

Risk stratification and early detection biomarkers for precision HCC screening

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) mortality remains high primarily due to late diagnosis as a consequence of failed early detection. Professional societies recommend semi-annual HCC screening in at-risk patients with chronic liver disease to increase the likelihood of curative treatment receipt and improve survival. However, recent dynamic shift of HCC etiologies from viral to metabolic liver diseases has significantly increased the potential target population for the screening, whereas annual incidence rate has become substantially lower. Thus, with the contemporary HCC etiologies, the traditional screening approach might not be practical and cost-effective. HCC screening consists of (i) definition of rational at-risk population, and subsequent (ii) repeated application of early detection tests to the population at regular intervals. The suboptimal performance of the currently available HCC screening tests highlights an urgent need for new modalities and strategies to improve early HCC detection. In this review, we overview recent developments of clinical, molecular, and imaging-based tools to address the current challenge, and discuss conceptual framework and approaches of their clinical translation and implementation. These encouraging progresses are expected to transform the current "one-size-fits-all" HCC screening into individualized precision approaches to early HCC detection and ultimately improve the poor HCC prognosis in the foreseeable future.

The relation between SNPs in the NME1 gene and response to sofosbuvir in Egyptian patients with chronic HCV

Background

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is considered one of the most urgent health problems in the world, with an incidence of approximately 71 million patients and 399,000 deaths per year from related liver diseases. In this study, we examined the association between 2 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in the nucleoside diphosphate kinase 1 (NME1) gene (encoding one of the sofosbuvir metabolizing enzymes) and the response to the sofosbuvir plus daclatasvir regimen in Egyptian HCV-infected patients.

Results

Our data showed a similarity in the distribution of the CC, CT, and TT genotypes of NME1 rs2302254 C/T (p  =  0.847) and the CC, TC, and TT genotypes of NME1 rs16949649 T/C (p  =  0.937) among patients who were either treatment responders or relapsers. Based on the univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses of the significant predictors for sustained virological response (SVR), five factors showed a robust predictive potency for the treatment outcome: age, fasting blood glucose level, platelets, albumin, and alpha-fetoprotein. Strikingly, there was a significant correlation between the rs16949649T/C polymorphism and serum creatinine (p  =  0.023). Higher creatinine levels were observed among the CC carriers than the TC or TT carriers.

Conclusions

The 2 studied SNPs of NME1 had no significant association with SVR in Egyptian HCV-infected patients; however, the noticeable relation between rs16949649T/C and creatinine level might represent a foundation for future studies on the renal extra-hepatic manifestation of HCV and SNPs of NME1 gene.

International multicenter validation of GES score for HCC risk stratification in chronic hepatitis C patients

We have recently demonstrated the ability of a simple predictive model (GES) score to determine the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after using direct-acting antivirals. However, our results were restricted to Egyptian patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV) genotype 4. Therefore, we studied a large, independent cohort of multiethnic populations through our international collaborative activity. Depending on their GES scores, patients are stratified into low risk (≤ 6/12.5), intermediate risk (> 6-7.5/12.5), and high risk (> 7.5/12.5) for HCC. A total of 12,038 patients with chronic HCV were analyzed in this study, of whom 11,202 were recruited from 54 centers in France, Japan, India, the U.S., and Spain, and the remaining 836 were selected from the Gilead-sponsored randomized controlled trial conducted across the U.S., Europe, Canada, and Australia. Descriptive statistics and log-rank tests. The performance of the GES score was evaluated using Harrell's C-index (HCI). The GES score proved successful at stratifying all patients into 3 risk groups, namely low-risk, intermediate-risk, and high-risk. It also displayed significant predictive value for HCC development in all participants (p < .0001), with HCI ranging from 0.55 to 0.76 among all cohorts after adjusting for HCV genotypes and patient ethnicities. The GES score can be used to stratify HCV patients into 3 categories of risk for HCC, namely low-risk, intermediate-risk, and high-risk, irrespective of their ethnicities or HCV genotypes. This international multicenter validation may allow the use of GES score in individualized HCC risk-based surveillance programs.

HCC incidence after hepatitis C cure among patients with advanced fibrosis or cirrhosis: A meta-analysis

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

HCV cure reduces but does not eliminate the risk of HCC. HCC surveillance is recommended in populations where the incidence exceeds 1.5% per year. In cirrhosis, HCC surveillance should continue after HCV cure, although it is uncertain if this should be indefinite. For patients with advanced fibrosis (F3), guidelines are inconsistent in their recommendations. We evaluated the incidence of HCC after HCV cure among patients with F3 fibrosis or cirrhosis.

APPROACH AND RESULTS

This systematic review and meta-analysis identified 44 studies (107,548 person-years of follow-up) assessing the incidence of HCC after HCV cure among patients with F3 fibrosis or cirrhosis. The incidence of HCC was 2.1 per 100 person-years (95% CI, 1.9-2.4) among patients with cirrhosis and 0.5 per 100 person-years (95% CI, 0.3-0.7) among patients with F3 fibrosis. In a meta-regression analysis among patients with cirrhosis, older age (adjusted rate ratio [aRR] per 10-year increase in mean/median age, 1.32; 95% CI, 1.00-1.73) and prior decompensation (aRR per 10% increase in the proportion of patients with prior decompensation, 1.06; 95% CI, 1.01-1.12) were associated with an increased incidence of HCC. Longer follow-up after HCV cure was associated with a decreased incidence of HCC (aRR per year increase in mean/median follow-up, 0.87; 95% CI, 0.79-0.96).

CONCLUSIONS

Among patients with cirrhosis, the incidence of HCC decreases over time after HCV cure and is lowest in patients with younger age and compensated cirrhosis. The substantially lower incidence in F3 fibrosis is below the recommended threshold for cost-effective screening. The results should encourage the development of validated predictive models that better identify at-risk individuals, especially among patients with F3 fibrosis.

General evaluation score for predicting the development of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with advanced liver fibrosis associated with hepatitis C virus genotype 1 or 2 after direct‐acting antiviral therapy

Background and Aim

To validate a composite predictive model for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development in patients with advanced liver fibrosis associated with chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) who have received direct‐acting antiviral (DAA) therapy and achieved sustained virologic response (SVR).

Methods

This study included 1258 patients with advanced liver fibrosis associated with HCV genotype 1, 2, or both. General evaluation score (GES), which is based on sex, age, fibrosis stage, albumin, and α‐fetoprotein, was used as a composite predictive model.

Results

There were 645 (51.3%) patients in the low‐risk group, 228 (18.1%) in the intermediate‐risk group, and 385 (30.6%) in the high‐risk group based on GES categories. The 12‐, 36‐, and 60‐month cumulative incidence of HCC was 0.7%, 5.3%, and 13.0%, respectively. Multivariable analysis with Cox proportional hazards models showed that male sex (hazard ratio [HR], 1.863; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.204–2.883), F4 fibrosis stage (HR, 3.199; 95% CI, 1.696–6.036), and albumin (HR, 0.489; 95% CI, 0.288–0.828) are independently associated with HCC development. The incidence of HCC differed significantly by GES‐based risk category (P < 0.001). Cox proportional hazards models showed that, with the low‐risk group as the referent, the HR for HCC development was 1.875 (95% CI, 1.000–3.514) in the intermediate‐risk group and 2.819 (95% CI, 1.716–4.630) in the high‐risk group. GES had better predictive ability for HCC development than fibrosis‐4 index according to time‐dependent receiver operating characteristic analysis.

Conclusion

GES is useful for predicting HCC development in patients with advanced liver fibrosis after SVR.

Viral hepatitis and hepatocellular carcinoma: From molecular pathways to the role of clinical surveillance and antiviral treatment

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a global health challenge. Due to the high prevalence in low-income countries, hepatitis B virus (HBV) and hepatitis C virus infections remain the main risk factors for HCC occurrence, despite the increasing frequencies of non-viral etiologies. In addition, hepatitis D virus coinfection increases the oncogenic risk in patients with HBV infection. The molecular processes underlying HCC development are complex and various, either independent from liver disease etiology or etiology-related. The reciprocal interlinkage among non-viral and viral risk factors, the damaged cellular microenvironment, the dysregulation of the immune system and the alteration of gut-liver-axis are known to participate in liver cancer induction and progression. Oncogenic mechanisms and pathways change throughout the natural history of viral hepatitis with the worsening of liver fibrosis. The high risk of cancer incidence in chronic viral hepatitis infected patients compared to other liver disease etiologies makes it necessary to implement a proper surveillance, both through clinical-biochemical scores and periodic ultrasound assessment. This review aims to outline viral and microenvironmental factors contributing to HCC occurrence in patients with chronic viral hepatitis and to point out the importance of surveillance programs recommended by international guidelines to promote early diagnosis of HCC.

Real‐world long‐term analysis of daclatasvir plus asunaprevir in patients with hepatitis C virus infection

Background and Aim

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Predictive performance and clinical utility of HCC risk scores in chronic hepatitis C: a comparative study

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Many HCC risk prediction scores were developed to guide HCC risk stratification and identify CHC patients who either need intensified surveillance or may not require screening. There is a need to compare different scores and their predictive performance in clinical practice. We aim to compare the newest HCC risk scores evaluating their discriminative ability, and clinical utility in a large cohort of CHC patients.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

The performance of the scores was evaluated in 3075 CHC patients who achieved SVR following DAAs using Log rank, Harrell's c statistic, also tested for HCC-risk stratification and negative predictive values.

RESULTS

HCC developed in 212 patients within 5 years follow-up. Twelve HCC risk scores were identified and displayed significant Log rank (p ≤ 0.05) except Alonso-Lopez TE-HCC, and Chun scores (p = 0.374, p = 0.053, respectively). Analysis of the remaining ten scores revealed that ADRES, GES pre-post treatment, GES algorithm and Watanabe (post-treatment) scores including dynamics of AFP, were clinically applicable and demonstrated good statistical performance; Log rank analysis < 0.001, Harrell's C statistic (0.66-0.83) and high negative predictive values (94.38-97.65%). In these three scores, the 5 years cumulative IR in low risk groups be very low (0.54-1.6), so screening could be avoided safely in these patients.

CONCLUSION

ADRES, GES (pre- and post-treatment), GES algorithm and Watanabe (post-treatment) scores seem to offer acceptable HCC-risk predictability and clinical utility in CHC patients. The dynamics of AFP as a component of these scores may explain their high performance when compared to other scores.

A validation study of after direct-acting antivirals recommendation for surveillance score for the development of hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with hepatitis C virus infection who had received direct-acting antiviral therapy and achieved sustained virological response

Background and Aim

The pathogenic process underlying the development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is not yet clear in patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV) who have received direct-acting antiviral (DAA) therapy and achieved sustained virological response (SVR). This study validated a composite predictive model for HCC in these patients.

Methods

This study included 3058 patients in whom HCV was eradicated with DAA therapy. After DAAs recommendation for surveillance (ADRES) score, which is based on sex, FIB-4 index, and α-fetoprotein, was used as a composite predictive model for HCC development.

Results

The 1-, 3-, and 5-year cumulative incidence rates of HCC were 0.9, 4.5, and 15.2%, respectively. Multivariate analysis with Cox proportional hazards models showed that male sex (hazard ratio [HR], 2.646; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.790-3.911), FIB-4 index >3.25 (HR, 2.891; 95% CI, 1.947-4.293), and α-fetoprotein >5 ng/mL (HR, 2.835; 95% CI, 1.914-4.200) are independently associated with HCC development. The incidence of HCC differed significantly by ADRES score (P < 0.001). Cox proportional hazards models showed that compared to the ADRES score 0 group, the HR for HCC development was 2.947 (95% CI, 1.367-6.354) in the ADRES score 1 group, 9.171 (95% CI, 4.339-19.380) in the ADRES score 2 group, and 20.630 (95% CI, 8.641-49.230) in the ADRES score 3 group. ADRES score had superior predictive power for HCC development compared with the FIB-4 index and α-fetoprotein according to time-dependent receiver operating characteristic analysis.

Conclusion

The ADRES score is useful for predicting HCC development after SVR.

Risk of hepatocellular carcinoma after hepatitis C virus cure

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a significant cause of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The direct-acting antivirals marked a new era of HCV therapy and are associated with greater than 95% cure rate. Successful treatment of chronic hepatitis C greatly reduces the risk of HCC. A proportion of patients, especially those with pre-existing cirrhosis, remain at risk for HCC despite sustained virologic response (SVR). Diabetes mellitus, hepatic steatosis, alcohol consumption and lack of fibrosis regression are associated with risks of HCC after HCV cure. Noninvasive modalities such as aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index and fibrosis-4 index and transient elastography have been used to monitor hepatic fibrosis. More recently, various fibrosis scores have been combined with clinical parameters and other novel biomarkers to predict risks of HCC for patients who achieved SVR. These models still need to be validated and standardized prior to applying to routine clinical care.

Letter: evaluation and proposed re-classification of HCC prediction model in patients with chronic hepatitis C genotype 4

This article is linked to Tahata et al papers. To view these articles, visit https://doi.org/10.1111/apt.16632 and https://doi.org/10.1111/apt.16721

A 2-Step Strategy Combining FIB-4 With Transient Elastography and Ultrasound Predicted Liver Cancer After HCV Cure

INTRODUCTION

Despite the direct-acting antiviral therapy has dramatically decreased the likelihood of having liver-related complications and extrahepatic outcomes, the risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is not totally eliminated after sustained virological response (SVR). We aimed to develop an easy-to-apply strategy to be adopted in clinical practice for accurately classifying the HCC risk in hepatitis C virus patients after SVR.

METHODS

Prospective and multicenter study enrolling hepatitis C virus patients with advanced fibrosis (transient elastography [TE] > 10 kPa) or cirrhosis by ultrasound showing SVR. They were followed up until HCC, liver transplantation, death, or until October 2020, which occurred first, with a minimum follow-up period of 6 months after SVR (follow-up: 49 [interquartile range 28-59] months).

RESULTS

Patients with cirrhosis by ultrasound represented 58% (611/1,054) of the overall cohort. During the study, HCC occurrence was 5.3% (56/1,054). Multivariate analyses revealed that Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) > 3.25 (hazard ratio [HR] 2.26 [1.08-4.73]; P = 0.030), TE (HR 1.02 [1.00-1.04]; P = 0.045) and cirrhosis by ultrasound (HR 3.15 [1.36-7.27]; P = 0.007) predicted HCC occurrence. Baseline HCC screening criteria (TE > 10 kPa or cirrhosis) identified patients at higher risk of HCC occurrence in presence of FIB-4 > 3.25 (8.8%; 44/498) vs FIB-4 < 3.25 (2.4%; 12/506), while those with only FIB > 3.25 had no HCC (0%; 0/50) (logRank 22.129; P = 0.0001). A combination of baseline FIB-4 > 3.25 and HCC screening criteria had an annual incidence >1.5 cases per 100 person-years, while the rest of the groups remained <1 case. Patients who maintained post-treatment FIB-4 > 3.25 and HCC screening criteria remained at the highest risk of HCC occurrence (13.7% [21/153] vs 4.9% [9/184]; logRank 7.396, P = 0.007).

DISCUSSION

We demonstrated that a two-step strategy combining FIB-4, TE, and ultrasound could help stratify HCC incidence risk after SVR.

Development of a simple dynamic algorithm for individualized hepatocellular carcinoma risk-based surveillance using pre- and post-treatment general evaluation score

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

With the growing number of treated hepatitis C patients, the current 'one-size-fits-all' hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) surveillance strategies for patients with advanced fibrosis represents a great burden on healthcare systems. An individualized HCC risk strategy incorporates the dynamic changes of HCC risk are lacking.

METHODS

This single-centre observational study included 3075 patients, with advanced fibrosis (≥F3) who achieved SVR following DAAs at Egyptian Liver research institute and hospital (ELRIAH) with follow-up period (range 6-72 months). The performance of a recently developed General Evaluation Score (GES) HCC risk stratification score was calculated pre- and post-treatment using Harrell's c statistic. Times to HCC and cumulative incidences were calculated with Kaplan-Meier method and compared using log-rank (Mantel-Cox) test.

RESULTS

Pre-treatment GES score stratified patients into low (60.4%), intermediate (23.4%), and (16.2%) high-risk score where 5-year cumulative incidences of HCC were 1.66%, 4.45% and 7.64%, respectively. Harrell's c statistic was 0.801. Post-treatment GES score stratified patients into low (57.4%), intermediate (30.7%) and (11.9%) high-risk score where 5-year cumulative incidences of HCC were 1.35%, 3.49% and 11.09% respectively. The cumulative HCC incidence increased significantly with higher scores (P < .001). Harrell's c statistic was 0.818. Using pre- and post-treatment GES score, GES algorithm was developed with higher predictive value. The cumulative HCC incidence increased significantly with higher scores (P < .001). Harrell's c statistic was 0.832.

CONCLUSION

A dynamic algorithm incorporating both pre- and post-GES scores have better performance and predictive value compared with only pre-treatment assessments. The proposed algorithm would help to stratify those who need intensive or being excluded from screening.

Surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic viral hepatitis: Is it time to personalize it?

Surveillance with abdominal ultrasound with or without alpha-fetoprotein is recommended by clinical practice guidelines for patients who are considered to be at risk of developing hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), including those with cirrhosis, advanced fibrosis and special subgroups of chronic hepatitis B (CHB). Application of the standard surveillance strategy to all patients with chronic liver disease (CLD) with or without cirrhosis imposes major sustainability and economic burdens on healthcare systems. Thus, a number of HCC risk scores were constructed, mainly from Asian cohorts, to stratify the HCC prediction in patients with CHB. Similarly, even if less than for CHB, a few scoring systems were developed for chronic hepatitis C patients or cirrhotic patients with CLD of different etiologies. Recently, a few newsworthy HCC-risk algorithms were developed for patients with cirrhosis using the combination of serologic HCC markers and clinical parameters. Overall, the HCC risk stratification appears at hand by several validated multiple score systems, but their optimal performance is obtained only in populations who show highly homogenous clinic-pathologic, epidemiologic, etiologic and therapeutic characteristics and this limitation poses a major drawback to their sustainable use in clinical practice. A better understanding of the dynamic process driving the progression from CLD to HCC derived from studies based on molecular approaches and genetics, epigenetics and liquid biopsy will enable the identification of new biomarkers to define the individual risk of HCC in the near future, with the possibility to achieve a real and cost/effective personalization of surveillance.

Predicting Hepatocellular Carcinoma Risk in Patients with Chronic HCV Infection and a Sustained Virological Response to Direct-Acting Antivirals

Chronic infection with hepatitis C virus (HCV) may complicate with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), especially in patients with cirrhosis. Although the achievement of a sustained virological response (SVR) had been associated with a reduction in the risk of HCC already in the Interferon era, some concerns initially raised following the use of direct-acting antivirals (DAA), as their use was associated with increased risk of HCC development and aggressiveness. However, studies demonstrated that the risk of HCC was strongly influenced by pre-treatment fibrosis stage and, eventually, prior HCC history more than the type of antiviral therapy. According to published studies, rates of de-novo HCC ranged between 1.4% and 13.6% in patients with cirrhosis or advanced fibrosis vs 0.9% and 5.9% in those with chronic hepatitis C (CHC). Conversely, rates of recurrent HCC were higher, ranging between 3.2% and 49% in cirrhotics vs 0% and 40% in CHC patients. Most studies tried to identify predictors of HCC development, either de-novo or recurrent, and some authors were also able to build predictive scores for HCC risk stratification, which however still need prospective validation. Whereas some clinical features, such as age, gender, presence of comorbidities and fibrosis stage, may influence both de-novo and recurrent HCC, previous tumour burden before DAA seems to prevail over these features in recurrent HCC risk prediction.

Pretreatment non-hypervascular hypointense nodules on Gd-EOB-DTPA-enhanced MRI as a predictor of hepatocellular carcinoma development after sustained virologic response in HCV infection

BACKGROUND

Identification of risk factors for the development of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after a sustained virologic response (SVR) in patients with chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection is urgently needed for HCC surveillance.

AIMS

To evaluate whether the presence of non-hypervascular hypointense nodules (NHHNs) depicted by gadolinium-ethoxybenzyl-diethylenetriamine pentaacetic acid-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (EOB-MRI) before direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) therapy is a risk factor for de novo HCC development after SVR.

METHODS

The presence of NHHNs was examined with EOB-MRI before the start of DAA therapy in 383 patients with HCV infection who achieved SVR. The incidence of de novo HCC after SVR was compared between patients with versus without NHHNs.

RESULTS

NHHNs were detected before DAA therapy in 32 patients (8.4%). The incidence of de novo HCC after SVR was significantly higher in patients with NHHNs than in those without (1-, 3-, 5-year incidence, 9.8%, 24.2% and 41.6% vs. 0%, 1.2% and 4.4%, P < 0.0001). The presence of NHHNs before DAA therapy (adjusted HR, 10.86; 95% CI, 4.03-31.64) and cirrhosis (adjusted HR, 7.23; 95% CI, 1.88-35.85) were independently associated with a higher incidence of HCC after SVR. A higher incidence of de novo HCC after SVR remained after adjustment for age, gender, regular alcohol intake, diabetes, cirrhosis, FIB-4 index and serum alpha-foetoprotein with inverse probability of treatment weighting.

CONCLUSIONS

This study confirmed that the presence of NHHNs before DAA therapy is a strong risk factor for the development of de novo HCC after SVR.