Relapse and regression to severe wasting in children under 5 years: A theoretical framework

Addressing dual deficiencies of SAM indicators; gaps and insights from inpatient admission to outpatient discharge, in conflict-affected Yemen; a retrospective study

BACKGROUND

Severe acute malnutrition (SAM) remains a critical public health challenge in conflict-affected settings, where children face heightened vulnerability. Dual deficiencies in weight-for-height z-score (WHZ < -3) and mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC < 11.5 cm) indicate a more severe form of SAM, yet current admission protocols prioritize WHZ-based criteria for inpatient therapeutic feeding centers (TFCs). This approach may exclude children with MUAC deficiencies from optimal inpatient care, potentially impacting recovery outcomes in outpatient therapeutic programs (OTPs). In Yemen, prolonged conflict has exacerbated SAM burdens, leading to an expansion of TFC and OTP services since 2015. The aim is to determine whether existing WHO recovery criteria adequately support comprehensive recovery and prevent premature discharge.

METHOD

A retrospective analysis was conducted using data from a prospective longitudinal study of children admitted with complicated SAM to TFCs in Sana'a City from September 2023 to November 2024. Children were categorized based on SAM diagnostic criteria (WHZ < -3, MUAC < 11.5 cm, or both) and analyzed under four discharge scenarios: (1) WHZ recovery, (2) MUAC recovery, (3) recovery by either WHZ or MUAC, and (4) recovery of both indicators. Chi-square and Kruskal-Wallis tests were used to assess differences between groups, and P < 0.05 was used to determine statistical significance.

RESULTS

Among 188 children admitted with complicated SAM, 56% (105) were female, 53% (100) were aged 6-<12 months, and 59% (111/188) presented with dual deficiencies. Admission based on WHZ criteria accounted for 82% (154/188) of admissions, of whom 72% also had MUAC < 11.5 cm. At OTP discharge, 96% met WHO recovery criteria, yet only 38% achieved full recovery (WHZ ≥ -2 and MUAC ≥ 12.5 cm). Full recovery was significantly lower among children with dual deficiencies at TFC admission than those with single deficiencies in MUAC or WHZ (31% vs. 47% and 51%, respectively, p = 0.032).

CONCLUSIONS

These findings underscore the need to integrate WHZ and MUAC into discharge criteria to prevent premature discharge and ensure comprehensive recovery. Revising WHO protocols and enhancing SAM management in conflict-affected settings are critical to improving treatment outcomes.

The Modified Dosages for Acute Malnutrition (MODAM) study: protocol for three integrated randomized controlled trials of novel approaches for the management of childhood wasting in Ethiopia

BACKGROUND

Only a small percentage of children with severe and moderate acute malnutrition receive treatment due to resource limitations, relatively complex treatment protocols, persistent supply chain challenges, and limited early identification among high-risk populations. Several innovations to the current model of care for uncomplicated acute malnutrition have been proposed, including modified doses of nutritional supplementation and family-led mid-upper-arm circumference (MUAC) and edema screening ("Family MUAC") for early identification. The evidence base for these innovations remains limited.

METHODS

The Modified Dosages for Acute Malnutrition (MODAM) study includes three integrated individually randomized clinical trials testing innovations in the identification and treatment of acute malnutrition in Ethiopia. One trial will enroll 2400 children aged 6-59 months with severe acute malnutrition, testing standard weight-based dosing of ready-to-use therapeutic food (RUTF) against two experimental RUTF dosing regimens: either two sachets (1000 kcal) daily of RUTF until discharge, or two sachets until achieving anthropometric criteria for moderate acute malnutrition (MAM), at which time dosing will be decreased to one sachet (500 kcal) daily until discharge as fully recovered. A second trial will enroll 2400 children with MAM and test a standard dose of one daily sachet (540 kcal) of ready-to-use supplemental food against two experimental dosing regimes: one sachet (500 kcal) or two sachets (1000 kcal) of RUTF daily until discharge. Children who recover from these two trials will be randomized again into a third trial evaluating post-recovery protocols designed for the early identification of relapse: (1) the control arm involving one scheduled return visit at 24 weeks post-recovery; (2) the first intervention arm involving three scheduled return visits at 4, 12, and 24 weeks post-recovery; and (3) the second intervention arm which involves caregivers receiving Family MUAC training and one scheduled visit at 24 weeks post-recovery.

DISCUSSION

This study will provide data on the effectiveness of multiple innovations in the management of childhood acute malnutrition. Results will add to the evidence base on the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of such modifications in the identification and management of acute malnutrition, ideally adding to the global database on this topic and directly contributing to future WHO guidelines.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Trials were registered on clinicaltrials.gov as NCT06038071 (registered September 8, 2023), NCT06056089 (registered September 20, 2023), and NCT06061484 (registered September 24, 2023).

Household-level water, sanitation and hygiene factors and interventions and the prevention of relapse after severe acute malnutrition recovery: A systematic review

Severe acute malnutrition (SAM) is the most serious form of acute malnutrition and is associated with high mortality risk among children under 5. While the Community-based Management of Acute Malnutrition (CMAM) approach, recommended for treating cases of uncomplicated SAM, has increased treatment coverage and recovery outcomes, high relapse rates have been reported. Several risk factors for SAM relapse, such as insufficient food intake and high infectious disease burden in the community, have been identified. However, the role of household water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) conditions remains unclear. This systematic review: (1) assesses the effectiveness of WASH interventions on preventing SAM relapse and (2) identifies WASH-related conditions associated with relapse to SAM among children aged 6-59 months discharged as recovered following SAM CMAM treatment. We performed electronic searches of six databases to identify relevant studies published between 1 January 2000 and 6 November 2023 and assessed their quality. After deduplication, 10,294 documents were screened by title and abstract, with 13 retrieved for full-text screening. We included three studies ranging from low- to medium-quality. One intervention study found that providing a WASH kit during SAM outpatient treatment did not reduce the risk of relapse to SAM. Two observational studies found inconsistent associations between household WASH conditions-unimproved sanitation and unsafe drinking water-and SAM relapse. Despite the paucity of evidence, the hypothesised causal pathways between WASH conditions and the risk of relapse remain plausible. Further evidence is needed to identify interventions for an integrated postdischarge approach to prevent relapse.

Risk factors for food contamination among children discharged from community management of acute malnutrition programmes in South Sudan: A cross-sectional study and hazard analysis critical control point approach

Children under-5 years of age are particularly vulnerable to severe acute malnutrition (SAM), and the risk factors associated with relapse to SAM are poorly understood. Possible causes are asymptomatic or symptomatic infection with enteric pathogens, with contaminated food as a critical transmission route. This cross-sectional study comprised a household survey with samples of child food (n = 382) and structured observations of food preparation (n = 197) among children aged 6-59 months that were discharged from treatment in community management of acute malnutrition (CMAM) programmes in South Sudan. We quantified Escherichia coli and total coliforms (TCs), measured in colony forming units per g of food (CFU/g), as indicators of microbial contamination of child food. A modified hazard analysis critical control point (HACCP) approach was utilised to determine critical control points (CCPs) followed by multivariate logistic regression analysis to understand the risk factors associated with contamination. Over 40% (n = 164) of samples were contaminated with E. coli (43% >0 E. coli CFU/g, 95% CI 38%-48%), and 90% (n = 343) had >10 TCs (CFU/g) (>10 TC CFU/g, 95% CI 87%-93%). Risk factors associated (p < 0.05) with child food contamination included if the child fed themselves (9.05 RR, 95% CI [3.18, 31.16]) and exposure to animals (2.63 RR, 95% CI [1.33, 5.34]). This study highlights the risk factors and potential control strategies that can support interventions that reduce food contamination exposure in young children and help further protect those that are highly vulnerable to recurrent exposure to enteric pathogens.

Post-Recovery Relapse of Children Treated with a Simplified, Combined Nutrition Treatment Protocol in Mali: A Prospective Cohort Study

The present study aimed to determine the 6-month incidence of relapse and associated factors among children who recovered from acute malnutrition (AM) following mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC)-based simplified combined treatment using the ComPAS protocol. A prospective cohort of 420 children who had reached a MUAC ≥ 125 mm for two consecutive measures was monitored between December 2020 and October 2021. Children were seen at home fortnightly for 6 months. The overall 6-month cumulative incidence of relapse [95%CI] into MUAC < 125 mm and/or edema was 26.1% [21.7; 30.8] and 1.7% [0.6; 3.6] to MUAC < 115 mm and/or edema. Relapse was similar among children initially admitted to treatment with a MUAC < 115 mm and/or oedema and among those with a MUAC ≥ 115 mm but <125 mm. Relapse was predicted by lower anthropometry both at admission to and discharge from treatment, and a higher number of illness episodes per month of follow-up. Having a vaccination card, using an improved water source, having agriculture as the main source of income, and increases in caregiver workload during follow-up all protected from relapse. Children discharged as recovered from AM remain at risk of relapsing into AM. To achieve reduction in relapse, recovery criteria may need to be revised and post-discharge strategies tested.

Anthropometric criteria for best-identifying children at high risk of mortality: a pooled analysis of twelve cohorts

OBJECTIVE

To understand which anthropometric diagnostic criteria best discriminate higher from lower risk of death in children and explore programme implications.

DESIGN

A multiple cohort individual data meta-analysis of mortality risk (within 6 months of measurement) by anthropometric case definitions. Sensitivity, specificity, informedness and inclusivity in predicting mortality, face validity and compatibility with current standards and practice were assessed and operational consequences were modelled.

SETTING

Community-based cohort studies in twelve low-income countries between 1977 and 2013 in settings where treatment of wasting was not widespread.

PARTICIPANTS

Children aged 6 to 59 months.

RESULTS

Of the twelve anthropometric case definitions examined, four (weight-for-age Z-score (WAZ) <-2), (mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) <125 mm), (MUAC < 115 mm or WAZ < -3) and (WAZ < -3) had the highest informedness in predicting mortality. A combined case definition (MUAC < 115 mm or WAZ < -3) was better at predicting deaths associated with weight-for-height Z-score <-3 and concurrent wasting and stunting (WaSt) than the single WAZ < -3 case definition. After the assessment of all criteria, the combined case definition performed best. The simulated workload for programmes admitting based on MUAC < 115 mm or WAZ < -3, when adjusted with a proxy for required intensity and/or duration of treatment, was 1·87 times larger than programmes admitting on MUAC < 115 mm alone.

CONCLUSIONS

A combined case definition detects nearly all deaths associated with severe anthropometric deficits suggesting that therapeutic feeding programmes may achieve higher impact (prevent mortality and improve coverage) by using it. There remain operational questions to examine further before wide-scale adoption can be recommended.

A multi-country, prospective cohort study to evaluate the economic implications of relapse among children recovered from severe acute malnutrition: a study protocol

Background

Community-based management of acute malnutrition (CMAM) is an effective intervention at recovering children from severe acute malnutrition (SAM) and preventing mortality. However, there is growing evidence that for many children recovery is not sustained post-discharge. This study will assess the economic implications of relapse by calculating the average cost of treating a case of SAM that relapses after initial CMAM treatment compared to the cost of a case that remains recovered for 6 months post-discharge.

Methods

This protocol outlines the methods for a cost-efficiency analysis to assess cost per episode of treatment for acute malnutrition for children enrolled in CMAM programs for initial SAM treatment in Mali, Somalia and South Sudan. Cost data will be collected and analyzed on a monthly basis for each CMAM service component (outpatient treatment program for SAM, supplementary feeding program for moderate acute malnutrition, and inpatient stabilization care for SAM with medical complications). Financial data will be extracted from expenditure records from institutional accounting systems where possible. Where these are not present, cost data will be collected via interview and review of financial documents. Staff time allocation interviews will be conducted. This data will be applied to quantify personnel costs, to apportion costs that are shared between programs and to exclude staff time spent on research activities.

Discussion

This study will provide the first estimates to address the limited evidence on the economic implications of SAM relapse in CMAM programs. Data from this economic analysis will help raise awareness and provide actionable data for the global nutrition community to address the financial burden of relapse. Estimating the cost of relapse in three countries representing different geographic and operational contexts will help in generalizing these results.

Trial registration

Registration # IORG0007116, Date of registration: 06/09/2020. This study is not registered as a clinical trial as it is observational research and does not include an intervention. The study has received the required ethical approvals as outlined in the declarations.

Burden and risk factors for relapse following successful treatment of uncomplicated severe acute malnutrition in young children: Secondary analysis from a randomised trial in Niger

This study aimed to quantify the burden of relapse following successful treatment for uncomplicated severe acute malnutrition (SAM) and to identify associated risk factors in rural Niger. We used data from 1490 children aged 6−59 months discharged as recovered from an outpatient nutritional programme for SAM and followed for up to 12 weeks after admission. Postdischarge SAM relapse was defined as weight‐for‐height Z‐score <−3, mid‐upper arm circumference (MUAC) <115 mm or bipedal oedema after having been discharged as recovered. Postdischarge hospitalisation was defined as admission to inpatient SAM treatment or hospitalisation for any cause after having been discharged as recovered. We used multivariate log‐binomial models to identify independent risk factors. After programmatic discharge, 114 (8%) children relapsed to SAM and 89 (6%) were hospitalised. Factors associated with SAM relapse were discharge during the lean season (relative risk [RR] = 1.80 [95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.22−2.67]) and larger household size (RR = 1.56 [95% CI = 1.01−2.41]), whereas older child age (RR = 0.94 [95% CI = 0.88−1.00]), higher child MUAC at discharge (RR = 0.93 [95% CI = 0.87−1.00]) and maternal literacy (RR = 0.54 [95% CI = 0.29−0.98]) were protective factors. Discharge during the lean season (RR = 2.27 [95% CI = 1.46−3.51]) was independently associated with postdischarge hospitalisation. Future nutritional programmes in the context of Niger may consider modification of anthropometric discharge criteria or the provision of additional home support or follow‐up during the lean season as potential interventions to prevent relapse. More research including postdischarge follow‐up is needed to better understand the sustainability of treatment outcomes after discharge and the type of intervention that may best sustain recovery over time. Clinical Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01613547.

Following successful discharge from a community‐based nutritional programme for severe acute malnutrition (SAM) treatment in rural Niger, the prevalence of SAM relapse was 8% and the prevalence of postdischarge hospitalisation was 6% within 12 weeks from admission.

Factors associated with SAM relapse were child age at programme admission, child mid‐upper arm circumference (MUAC) at discharge, discharge from the nutritional programme during the lean season, and maternal literacy.

Anthropometry at discharge was a primary risk factor for relapse. MUAC at discharge performed better than weight‐for‐height Z‐score (WHZ) in classifying SAM relapse cases. ‘Optimal’ cut‐offs, defined using the Liu method which maximises the product of the sensitivity and specificity, were MUAC of 121 mm with 66% sensitivity and 67% specificity and WHZ of −1.38 with 54% sensitivity and 57% specificity.

Future programmes may consider additional support or follow‐up of children at high risk of postdischarge relapse or hospitalisation, including those discharged during the lean season. Modification of current anthropometric discharge criteria may also be explored as an actionable target to further reduce the risk of relapse.

Relapse and regression to severe wasting in children under 5 years: A theoretical framework

Systematic reviews have highlighted that repeated severe wasting after receiving treatment is likely to be common, but standardised measurement is needed urgently. The Council of Research & Technical Advice for Acute Malnutrition (CORTASAM) released recommendations on standard measurement of relapse (wasting within 6 months after exiting treatment as per recommended discharge criteria), regression (wasting within 6 months after exiting treatment before reaching recommended discharge criteria) and reoccurrence (wasting after 6 months of exit from treatment as per recommended discharge criteria). We provide a theoretical framework of post-treatment relapse and regression to severe wasting to guide discussions, risk factor analyses, and development and evaluations of interventions. This framework highlights that there are factors that may impact risk of relapse and regression in addition to the impact of contextual factors associated with incidence and reoccurrence of severe wasting more generally. Factors hypothesised to be associated with relapse and regression relate specifically to the nutrition and health status of the child on admission to, during and exit from treatment and treatment interventions, platforms and approaches as well as type of exit from treatment (e.g., before reaching recommended criteria). These factors influence whether children reach full recovery, and poorer nutritional and immunological status at exit from treatment are more proximate determinants of risk of severe wasting after treatment, although post-treatment interventions may modify risks. The evidence base for many of these factors is weak. Our framework can guide research to improve our understanding of risks of relapse and regression and how to prevent them and inform programmes on what data to collect to evaluate relapse. Implementation research is needed to operationalise results in programmes and reduce post-treatment severe wasting at scale.

Relapse and post-discharge body composition of children treated for acute malnutrition using a simplified, combined protocol: A nested cohort from the ComPAS RCT

INTRODUCTION

Severe and moderate acute malnutrition (SAM and MAM) affect more than 50 million children worldwide yet 80% of these children do not access care. The Combined Protocol for Acute Malnutrition Study (ComPAS) trial assessed the effectiveness of a simplified, combined SAM/MAM protocol for children aged 6-59 months and found non-inferior recovery compared to standard care. To further inform policy, this study assessed post-discharge outcomes of children treated with this novel protocol in Kenya.

METHODS

Six 'combined' protocol clinics treated SAM and MAM children using an optimised mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC)-based dose of ready-to-use therapeutic food (RUTF). Six 'standard care' clinics treated SAM with weight-based RUTF rations; MAM with ready-to-use supplementary food (RUSF). Four months post-discharge, we assessed anthropometry, recent history of illness, and body composition by bioelectrical impedance analysis. Data was analysed using multivariable linear regression, adjusted for age, sex and allowing for clustering by clinic.

RESULTS

We sampled 850 children (median age 18 months, IQR 15-23); 44% of the original trial sample in Kenya. Children treated with the combined protocol had similar anthropometry, fat-free mass, fat mass, skinfold thickness z-scores, and frequency of common illnesses 4 months post-discharge compared the standard protocol. Mean subscapular skinfold z-scores were close to the global norm (standard care: 0.24; combined 0.27). There was no significant difference in odds of relapse between protocols (SAM, 3% vs 3%, OR = 1.0 p = 0.75; MAM, 10% vs 12%, OR = 0.90 p = 0.34).

CONCLUSIONS

Despite the lower dosage of RUTF for most SAM children in the combined protocol, their anthropometry and relapse rates at 4 months post-discharge were similar to standard care. MAM children treated with RUTF had similar body composition to those treated with RUSF and neither group exhibited excess adiposity. These results add further evidence that a combined protocol is as effective as standard care with no evidence of adverse effects post-discharge. A simplified, combined approach could treat more children, stretch existing resources further, and contribute to achieving Sustainable Development Goal Two.