A coupled phylogeographical and species distribution modelling approach recovers the demographical history of a Neotropical seasonally dry forest tree species

Multi-temporal ecological niche modeling for bird conservation in the face of climate change scenarios in Caatinga, Brazil

Background

Global shifts in climatic patterns have been recorded over the last decades. Such modifications mainly correspond to increased temperatures and rainfall regime changes, which are becoming more variable and extreme.

Methods

We aimed to evaluate the impact of future changes in climatic patterns on the distribution of 19 endemic or threatened bird taxa of the Caatinga. We assessed whether current protected areas (PAs) are adequate and whether they will maintain their effectiveness in the future. Also, we identified climatically stable areas that might work as refugia for an array of species.

Results

We observed that 84% and 87% of the bird species of Caatinga analyzed in this study will face high area losses in their predicted range distribution areas in future scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively). We also observed that the current PAs in Caatinga are ineffective in protecting these species in both present and future scenarios, even when considering all protection area categories. However, several suitable areas can still be allocated for conservation, where there are vegetation remnants and a high amount of species. Therefore, our study paves a path for conservation actions to mitigate current and future extinctions due to climate change by choosing more suitable protection areas.

Spatial structure of the Caatinga woody flora: abundance patterns have environmental, Pleistocene, and indigenous drivers

Despite growing knowledge on the distribution and functioning of dryland vegetation types, their internal biodiversity structure (i.e., subregions) is much less studied. In the delineation of subregions, the use of species occurrence or abundance data may reveal different aspects of metacommunity structure. We revisit the issue of the bioregionalization of the woody flora of the Caatinga, the largest block of the dry forest and woodland biome in Latin America, using abundance data. We also evaluated the drivers of the spatial distribution of plant subregions: historical, current environmental and human effects. Using a K-means partition on interpolated NMDS axes, we identified 10 abundance subregions. Aridity, topography and soil, biome stability since the Pleistocene, and historical indigenous effects were retained by a Multinomial Logistic regression model, and their combined fractions explained most of the abundance variability in subregions. The subregions we present may support spatialized conservation and management decisions in the lack of detailed local data. The present results confirm the Caatinga woody flora broad composition patterns uncovered using presence-absence data in previous studies. Additionally, we found larger subregions than those identified with presence and absence data, suggesting the existence of oligarchies of dominant species in distinct parts of the Caatinga biome.

Phylogenetic relationships and evolutionary patterns of the genus Psammolestes Bergroth, 1911 (Hemiptera: Reduviidae: Triatominae)

BACKGROUND

The evolutionary history of biodiversity in South America has been poorly studied in the seasonal dry tropical forest (SDTF). Species diversification in this ecosystem may have a twofold explanation. First, intermittent connections in the middle and late Pleistocene promoted species dispersal and/or genetic connectivity between lineages isolated in disjunct patches of forest. Second, allopatric speciation proceeded immediately after the formation and colonization of the SDTF in the Neogene. Here we studied the diversification of Psammolestes, a genus endemic of the SDTF and naturally infected with Trypanosoma cruzi (agent of Chagas disease), using a combination of phylogenetic, population genetics and niche model methods, and evaluated the reliability of the three morphospecies currently recognized.

RESULTS

Our multilocus analyses recovered P. coreodes and P. tertius in a monophyletic clade sister to P. arthuri. Species delimitation tests recovered these lineages as different species despite the shared genetic variation observed between P. coreodes and P. tertius in five genes. Also, genetic variation of the genus clustered in three groups that were consistent with the three morphospecies. Our demographic model predicted a scenario of divergence in absence of gene flow, suggesting that mixed haplotypes may be the result of shared ancestral variation since the divergence of the subtropical-temperate species P. coreodes and P. tertius. In contrast, the tropical species P. arthuri was highly differentiated from the other two in all tests of genetic structure, and consistently, the Monmonier's algorithm identified a clear geographical barrier that separates this species from P. coreodes and P. tertius.

CONCLUSIONS

We found three genetically structured lineages within Psammolestes that diverged in absence of gene flow in the late Miocene. This result supports a scenario of species formation driven by geographical isolation rather than by divergence in the face of gene flow associated with climatic oscillations in the Pleistocene. Also, we identified the Amazon basin as a climatic barrier that separates tropical from subtropical-temperate species, thus promoting allopatric speciation after long range dispersion. Finally, each species of Psammolestes occupies different climatic niches suggesting that niche conservatism is not crucial for species differentiation. These findings influence the current vector surveillance programs of Chagas disease in the region.

Comparative population genomics in Tabebuia alliance shows evidence of adaptation in Neotropical tree species

The role of natural selection in shaping spatial patterns of genetic diversity in the Neotropics is still poorly understood. Here, we perform a genome scan with 24,751 probes targeting 11,026 loci in two Neotropical Bignoniaceae tree species: Handroanthus serratifolius from the seasonally dry tropical forest (SDTF) and Tabebuia aurea from savannas, and compared with the population genomics of H. impetiginosus from SDTF. OutFLANK detected 29 loci in 20 genes with selection signal in H. serratifolius and no loci in T. aurea. Using BayPass, we found evidence of selection in 335 loci in 312 genes in H. serratifolius, 101 loci in 92 genes in T. aurea, and 448 loci in 416 genes in H. impetiginosus. All approaches evidenced several genes affecting plant response to environmental stress and primary metabolic processes. The three species shared no SNPs with selection signal, but we found SNPs affecting the same gene in pair of species. Handroanthus serratifolius showed differences in allele frequencies at SNPs with selection signal among ecosystems, mainly between Caatinga/Cerrado and Atlantic Forest, while H. impetiginosus had one allele fixed across all populations, and T. aurea had similar allele frequency distribution among ecosystems and polymorphism across populations. Taken together, our results indicate that natural selection related to environmental stress shaped the spatial pattern of genetic diversity in the three species. However, the three species have different geographical distribution and niches, which may affect tolerances and adaption, and natural selection may lead to different signatures due to the differences in adaptive landscapes in different niches.

RNA-Seq reveals different responses to drought in Neotropical trees from savannas and seasonally dry forests

BACKGROUND

Water is one of the main limiting factors for plant growth and crop productivity. Plants constantly monitor water availability and can rapidly adjust their metabolism by altering gene expression. This leads to phenotypic plasticity, which aids rapid adaptation to climate changes. Here, we address phenotypic plasticity under drought stress by analyzing differentially expressed genes (DEG) in four phylogenetically related neotropical Bignoniaceae tree species: two from savanna, Handroanthus ochraceus and Tabebuia aurea, and two from seasonally dry tropical forests (SDTF), Handroanthus impetiginosus and Handroanthus serratifolius. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first report of an RNA-Seq study comparing tree species from seasonally dry tropical forest and savanna ecosystems.

RESULTS

Using a completely randomized block design with 4 species × 2 treatments (drought and wet) × 3 blocks (24 plants) and an RNA-seq approach, we detected a higher number of DEGs between treatments for the SDTF species H. serratifolius (3153 up-regulated and 2821 down-regulated under drought) and H. impetiginosus (332 and 207), than for the savanna species. H. ochraceus showed the lowest number of DEGs, with only five up and nine down-regulated genes, while T. aurea exhibited 242 up- and 96 down-regulated genes. The number of shared DEGs among species was not related to habitat of origin or phylogenetic relationship, since both T. aurea and H impetiginosus shared a similar number of DEGs with H. serratifolius. All four species shared a low number of enriched gene ontology (GO) terms and, in general, exhibited different mechanisms of response to water deficit. We also found 175 down-regulated and 255 up-regulated transcription factors from several families, indicating the importance of these master regulators in drought response.

CONCLUSION

Our findings show that phylogenetically related species may respond differently at gene expression level to drought stress. Savanna species seem to be less responsive to drought at the transcriptional level, likely due to morphological and anatomical adaptations to seasonal drought. The species with the largest geographic range and widest edaphic-climatic niche, H. serratifolius, was the most responsive, exhibiting the highest number of DEG and up- and down-regulated transcription factors (TF).

Centre-periphery approaches based on geography, ecology and historical climate stability: what explains the variation in morphological traits of Bulnesia sarmientoi?

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The centre-periphery hypothesis posits that higher species performance is expected in geographic and ecological centres rather than in peripheral populations. However, this is not the commonly found pattern; therefore, alternative approaches, including the historical dimension of species geographical ranges, should be explored. Morphological functional traits are fundamental determinants of species performance, commonly related to environmental stability and productivity. We tested whether or not historical processes may have shaped variations in tree and leaf traits of the Chaco tree Bulnesia sarmientoi.

METHODS

Morphological variation patterns were analysed from three centre-periphery approaches: geographical, ecological and historical. Tree (stem and canopy) and leaf (leaf size and specific leaf area) traits were measured in 24 populations across the species range. A principal component analysis was performed on morphological traits to obtain synthetic variables. Linear mixed-effects models were used to test which of the implemented centre-periphery approaches significantly explained trait spatial patterns.

KEY RESULTS

The patterns retrieved from the three centre-periphery approaches were not concordant. The historical approach revealed that trees were shorter in centre populations than in the periphery. Significant differences in leaf traits were observed between the geographical centre and the periphery, mainly due to low specific leaf area values towards the geographical centre. We did not find any pattern associated with the ecological centre-periphery approach.

CONCLUSIONS

The decoupled response between leaf and tree traits suggests that these sets of traits respond differently to processes occurring at different times. The geographical and historical approaches showed centres with extreme environments in relation to their respective peripheries, but the historical centre has also been a climatically stable area since the Last Glacial Maximum. The historical approach allowed for the recovery of historical processes underlying variation in tree traits, highlighting that centre-periphery delimitations should be based on a multi-approach framework.

Protected area networks do not represent unseen biodiversity

Most existing protected area networks are biased to protect charismatic species or landscapes. We hypothesized that conservation networks designed to include unseen biodiversity-species rich groups that consist of inconspicuous taxa, or groups affected by knowledge gaps-are more efficient than networks that ignore these groups. To test this hypothesis, we generated species distribution models for 3006 arthropod species to determine which were represented in three networks of different sizes and biogeographic origin. We assessed the efficiency of each network using spatial prioritization to measure its completeness, the increment needed to achieve conservation targets, and its specificity, the extent to which proposed priority areas to maximize unseen biodiversity overlap with existing networks. We found that the representativeness of unseen biodiversity in the studied protected areas, or extrinsic representativeness, is low, with ~ 40% of the analyzed unseen biodiversity species being unprotected. We also found that existing networks should be expanded ~ 26% to 46% of their current area to complete targets, and that existing networks do not efficiently conserve the unseen biodiversity given their low specificity (as low as 8.8%) unseen biodiversity. We conclude that information on unseen biodiversity must be included in systematic conservation planning approaches to design more efficient and ecologically representative protected areas.

Genome assemblies for two Neotropical trees: Jacaranda copaia and Handroanthus guayacan

The lack of genomic resources for tropical canopy trees is impeding several research avenues in tropical forest biology. We present genome assemblies for two Neotropical hardwood species, Jacaranda copaia and Handroanthus (formerly Tabebuia) guayacan, that are model systems for research on tropical tree demography and flowering phenology. For each species, we combined Illumina short-read data with in vitro proximity-ligation (Chicago) libraries to generate an assembly. For Jacaranda copaia, we obtained 104X physical coverage and produced an assembly with N50/N90 scaffold lengths of 1.020/0.277 Mbp. For H. guayacan, we obtained 129X coverage and produced an assembly with N50/N90 scaffold lengths of 0.795/0.165 Mbp. J. copaia and H. guayacan assemblies contained 95.8% and 87.9% of benchmarking orthologs, although they constituted only 77.1% and 66.7% of the estimated genome sizes of 799 and 512 Mbp, respectively. These differences were potentially due to high repetitive sequence content (>59.31% and 45.59%) and high heterozygosity (0.5% and 0.8%) in each species. Finally, we compared each new assembly to a previously sequenced genome for Handroanthus impetiginosus using whole-genome alignment. This analysis indicated extensive gene duplication in H. impetiginosus since its divergence from H. guayacan.

Chloroplast genome assembly of Handroanthus impetiginosus: comparative analysis and molecular evolution in Bignoniaceae

Bignoniaceae species have conserved chloroplast structure, with hotspots of nucleotide diversity. Several genes are under positive selection, and can be targets for evolutionary studies. Bignoniaceae is one of the most species-rich family of woody plants in Neotropical seasonally dry forests. Here we report the assembly of Handroanthus impetiginosus chloroplast genome and evolutionary comparative analyses of ten Bignoniaceae species representing the genera for which whole-genome chloroplast sequences were available. The chloroplast genome of H. impetiginosus is 159,462 bp in size and has a similar structure compared to the other nine species. The total number of genes was slightly variable amongst the Bignoniaceae, ranging from 124 in H. impetiginosus to 144 in Anemopaegma acutifolium. The inverted repeat (IR) size was variable, ranging from 24,657 bp (Tecomaria capensis) to 40,481 bp (A. acutifolium), due to the contraction and retraction at its boundaries. However, gene boundaries were very similar among the ten species. We found 98 forward and palindromic dispersed repeats, and 85 simple sequence repeats (SSRs). In general, chloroplast sequences were highly conserved, with few nucleotide diversity hotspots in the genes accD, clpP, rpoA, ycf1, ycf2. The phylogenetic analysis based on 77 coding genes was highly consistent with Angiosperm Phylogeny Group (APG) IV. Our results also indicate that most genes are under negative selection or neutral evolution. We found no evidence of branch-site selection, implying that H. impetiginosus is not evolving faster than the other species analyzed, notwithstanding we found site positive selection signal in several genes. These genes can provide targets for evolutionary studies in Bignoniaceae and Lamiales species.

Evidence for the Pleistocene Arc Hypothesis from genome-wide SNPs in a Neotropical dry forest specialist, the Rufous-fronted Thornbird (Furnariidae: Phacellodomus rufifrons)

South American dry forests have a complex and poorly understood biogeographic history. Based on the fragmented distribution of many Neotropical dry forest species, it has been suggested that this biome was more widely distributed and contiguous under drier climate conditions in the Pleistocene. To test this scenario, known as the Pleistocene Arc Hypothesis, we studied the phylogeography of the Rufous-fronted Thornbird (Phacellodomus rufifrons), a widespread dry forest bird with a disjunct distribution closely matching that of the biome itself. We sequenced mtDNA and used ddRADseq to sample 7,167 genome-wide single-nucleotide polymorphisms from 74 P. rufifrons individuals across its range. We found low genetic differentiation over two prominent geographic breaks - particularly across a 1,000 km gap between populations in Bolivia and Northern Peru. Using demographic analyses of the joint site frequency spectrum, we found evidence of recent divergence without subsequent gene flow across those breaks. By contrast, parapatric morphologically distinct populations in northeastern Brazil show high genetic divergence with evidence of recent gene flow. These results, in combination with our paleoclimate species distribution modelling, support the idea that currently disjunct patches of dry forest were more connected in the recent past, probably during the Middle and Late Pleistocene. This notion fits the major predictions of the Pleistocene Arc Hypothesis and illustrates the importance of comprehensive genomic and geographic sampling for examining biogeographic and evolutionary questions in complex ecosystems like Neotropical dry forests.

Genetics and Distribution Modeling: The Demographic History of the Cactophilic Drosophila buzzatii Species Cluster in Open Areas of South America

Biodiversity is the result of historical and recurrent events acting on populations and species. The Drosophila buzzatii species cluster is distributed along a diagonal of open areas in South America. Combining genetic analyses with species distribution models we evaluated the influence of climatic changes in the demography history of this cluster. We performed a Bayesian Skyline analysis and reconstructed the ancestral areas based on mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase I (mtCOI) gene. We modeled the current distribution and projected it to past (mid-Holocene and Last Glacial Maximum) and future. Our results demonstrate that climate change plays a critical role in historical demography and in defining the current and future geographic ranges of these species. The inter-Andean dry valleys and the Chiquitano Seasonally Dry Tropical Forests (SDTF) in Bolivia are considered the ancestral area for the D. buzzatii cluster. From this area, the migration route was through a west-east corridor from central Andes, throughout Bolivia, Paraguay and Argentina toward eastern and northeastern Brazil, along the edges of rain forest. The responses of the species to the climatic changes differ from the dominant assumptions of expansion during dry/cold weather and contraction during wet/warm weather that characterized the glacial cycles. We suggest that the influence of ecology and the potential responsiveness of each taxon to the environmental dynamics should be considered as well. Predictions for the future suggest a decline of suitable areas for the cluster, threatening biodiversity of these habitats. This work showed the importance of an integrative analysis of genetics and geography information to improve the inferences about demographic history hypotheses for the cluster.

Genetic diversity of the rain tree (Albizia saman) in Colombian seasonally dry tropical forest for informing conservation and restoration interventions

Albizia saman is a multipurpose tree species of seasonally dry tropical forests (SDTFs) of Mesoamerica and northern South America typically cultivated in silvopastoral and other agroforestry systems around the world, a trend that is bound to increase in light of multimillion hectare commitments for forest and landscape restoration. The effective conservation and sustainable use of A. saman requires detailed knowledge of its genetic diversity across its native distribution range of which surprisingly little is known to date. We assessed the genetic diversity and structure of A.saman across twelve representative locations of SDTF in Colombia, and how they may have been shaped by past climatic changes and human influence. We found four different genetic groups which may be the result of differentiation due to isolation of populations in preglacial times. The current distribution and mixture of genetic groups across STDF fragments we observed might be the result of range expansion of SDTFs during the last glacial period followed by range contraction during the Holocene and human-influenced movement of germplasm associated with cattle ranching. Despite the fragmented state of the presumed natural A. saman stands we sampled, we did not find any signs of inbreeding, suggesting that gene flow is not jeopardized in humanized landscapes. However, further research is needed to assess potential deleterious effects of fragmentation on progeny. Climate change is not expected to seriously threaten the in situ persistence of A. saman populations and might present opportunities for future range expansion. However, the sourcing of germplasm for tree planting activities needs to be aligned with the genetic affinity of reference populations across the distribution of Colombian SDTFs. We identify priority source populations for in situ conservation based on their high genetic diversity, lack or limited signs of admixture, and/or genetic uniqueness.

Disentangling the Environmental Factors That Shape Genetic and Phenotypic Leaf Trait Variation in the Tree Qualea grandiflora Across the Brazilian Savanna

Identifying the environmental factors that shape intraspecific genetic and phenotypic diversity of species can provide insights into the processes that generate and maintain divergence in highly diverse biomes such as the savannas of the Neotropics. Here, we sampled Qualea grandiflora, the most widely distributed tree species in the Cerrado, a large Neotropical savanna. We analyzed genetic variation with microsatellite markers in 23 populations (418 individuals) and phenotypic variation of 10 metamer traits (internode, petiole and corresponding leaf lamina) in 36 populations (744 individuals). To evaluate the role of geography, soil, climate, and wind speed in shaping the divergence of genetic and phenotypic traits among populations, we used Generalized Dissimilarity Modelling. We also used multiple regressions to further investigate the contributions of those environmental factors on leaf trait diversity. We found high genetic diversity, which was geographically structured. Geographic distance was the main factor shaping genetic divergence in Qualea grandiflora, reflecting isolation by distance. Genetic structure was more related to past climatic changes than to the current climate. We also found high metamer trait variation, which seemed largely influenced by precipitation, soil bulk density and wind speed during the period of metamer development. The high degree of metamer trait variation seems to be due to both, phenotypic plasticity and local adaptation to different environmental conditions, and may explain the success of the species in occupying all the Cerrado biome.

Megafauna Seed Dispersal in the Neotropics: A Meta-Analysis Shows No Genetic Signal of Loss of Long-Distance Seed Dispersal

Restricted gene flow may lead to the loss of genetic diversity and higher genetic differentiation among populations, but the genetic consequences of megafauna extinction for plant populations still remain to be assessed. We performed a phylogenetic-independent meta-analysis across 102 Neotropical plants to test the hypothesis that plant species with megafaunal seed dispersal syndrome have a lower genetic diversity and a higher genetic differentiation than those without it. We classified as megafauna-dependent plant species those that potentially relied only on megafauna to seed dispersal, and as megafauna-independent those that relied on megafauna and other seed dispersers. Our data comprised 98 studies using microsatellite markers. We found no statistical difference in genetic diversity and differentiation between plants with megafauna and non-megafauna seed dispersal syndrome, although the statistical power to detect differences in genetic differentiation was low. Moreover, we found no statistical difference between megafauna-dependent and megafauna-independent plant species. We then used generalized linear mixed models and phylogenetic generalized least square models to investigate the effects of megafaunal seed dispersal syndromes and reproductive traits on variation in genetic diversity and genetic differentiation. We found no effect of megafaunal syndrome, rather, reproductive traits, such as pollination mode, mating, and breeding systems, showed significant effects. Our findings show that the genetic studies of Neotropical plants performed so far show no difference in genetic diversity and differentiation in plants with megafaunal compared to those with non-megafaunal seed dispersal syndromes. Our results also provide evidence pointing out that plant species with megafaunal seed dispersal syndromes may have used different strategies to counterbalance the extinction of their mutualistic megafauna dispersers, such as the dispersal by extant mammals that may promote long-distance seed dispersal. Our results also reinforce the importance of pollination to long-distance gene flow in Neotropical plants.

A genome-wide scan shows evidence for local adaptation in a widespread keystone Neotropical forest tree

The role of natural selection in shaping patterns of diversity is still poorly understood in the Neotropics. We carried out the first genome-wide population genomics study in a Neotropical tree, Handroanthus impetiginosus (Bignoniaceae), sampling 75,838 SNPs by sequence capture in 128 individuals across 13 populations. We found evidences for local adaptation using Bayesian correlations of allele frequency and environmental variables (32 loci in 27 genes) complemented by an analysis of selective sweeps and genetic hitchhiking events using SweepFinder2 (81 loci in 47 genes). Fifteen genes were identified by both approaches. By accounting for population genetic structure, we also found 14 loci with selection signal in a STRUCTURE-defined lineage comprising individuals from five populations, using Outflank. All approaches pinpointed highly diverse and structurally conserved genes affecting plant development and primary metabolic processes. Spatial interpolation forecasted differences in the expected allele frequencies at loci under selection over time, suggesting that H. impetiginosus may track its habitat during climate changes. However, local adaptation through natural selection may also take place, allowing species persistence due to niche evolution. A high genetic differentiation was seen among the H. impetiginosus populations, which, together with the limited power of the experiment, constrains the improved detection of other types of soft selective forces, such as background, balanced, and purifying selection. Small differences in allele frequency distribution among widespread populations and the low number of loci with detectable adaptive sweeps advocate for a polygenic model of adaptation involving a potentially large number of small genome-wide effects.

Design and evaluation of a sequence capture system for genome-wide SNP genotyping in highly heterozygous plant genomes: a case study with a keystone Neotropical hardwood tree genome

Targeted sequence capture coupled to high-throughput sequencing has become a powerful method for the study of genome-wide sequence variation. Following our recent development of a genome assembly for the Pink Ipê tree (Handroanthus impetiginosus), a widely distributed Neotropical timber species, we now report the development of a set of 24,751 capture probes for single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) characterization and genotyping across 18,216 distinct loci, sampling more than 10 Mbp of the species genome. This system identifies nearly 200,000 SNPs located inside or in close proximity to almost 14,000 annotated protein-coding genes, generating quality genotypic data in populations spanning wide geographic distances across the species native range. To provide recommendations for future developments of similar systems for highly heterozygous plant genomes we investigated issues such as probe design, sequencing coverage and bioinformatics, including the evaluation of the capture efficiency and a reassessment of the technical reproducibility of the assay for SNPs recall and genotyping precision. Our results highlight the value of a detailed probe screening on a preliminary genome assembly to produce reliable data for downstream genetic studies. This work should inspire and assist the development of similar genomic resources for other orphan crops and forest trees with highly heterozygous genomes.

Caracterização e história biogeográfica dos ecossistemas secos neotropicais

Resumo A região Neotropical, detentora da maior riqueza de espécies no globo, ocorre do México Central ao sul do Brasil. Neste trabalho, buscamos sumarizar as principais informações disponíveis na literatura que caracterizam os biomas neotropicais de Florestas Sazonalmente Seca (FTSS), Chaco e Savanas. Revisamos hipóteses biogeográficas concernentes a esses ambientes que buscam explicar sua dinâmica histórica. Nosso objetivo é oferecer uma caracterização desses biomas como etapa principal para o entendimento das principais hipóteses biogeográficas a eles associadas. Ainda que comporte como um cenário atraente para pesquisa, as espécies neotropicais são pouco estudas, sendo questões referentes a seus aspectos ecológicos, origem, história evolutiva e manutenção da elevada biodiversidade desconhecidas ou, ainda, pouco compreendidas. Embora, nossa revisão apresente pesquisas com diferentes pontos de vista quanto à dinâmica biogeográfica das formações vegetais, há consenso de que é produto de complexa interação entre os processos históricos, ecológicos e biológicos. Os estudos em biodiversidade de regiões ameaçadas, como os Neotrópicos, são norteadores para simulações e previsões de impactos, planos e estratégias de pesquisa.

Unravelling the genetic differentiation among varieties of the Neotropical savanna tree Hancornia speciosa Gomes

Background and Aims

Spatial distribution of species genetic diversity is often driven by geographical distance (isolation by distance) or environmental conditions (isolation by environment), especially under climate change scenarios such as Quaternary glaciations. Here, we used coalescent analyses coupled with ecological niche modelling (ENM), spatially explicit quantile regression analyses and the multiple matrix regression with randomization (MMRR) approach to unravel the patterns of genetic differentiation in the widely distributed Neotropical savanna tree, Hancornia speciosa (Apocynaceae). Due to its high morphological differentiation, the species was originally classified into six botanical varieties by Monachino, and has recently been recognized as only two varieties by Flora do Brasil 2020. Thus, H. speciosa is a good biological model for learning about evolution of phenotypic plasticity under genetic and ecological effects, and predicting their responses to changing environmental conditions.

Methods

We sampled 28 populations (777 individuals) of Monachino's four varieties of H. speciosa and used seven microsatellite loci to genotype them.

Key Results

Bayesian clustering showed five distinct genetic groups (K = 5) with high admixture among Monachino's varieties, mainly among populations in the central area of the species geographical range. Genetic differentiation among Monachino's varieties was lower than the genetic differentiation among populations within varieties, with higher within-population inbreeding. A high historical connectivity among populations of the central Cerrado shown by coalescent analyses may explain the high admixture among varieties. In addition, areas of higher climatic suitability also presented higher genetic diversity in such a way that the wide historical refugium across central Brazil might have promoted the long-term connectivity among populations. Yet, FST was significantly related to geographic distances, but not to environmental distances, and coalescent analyses and ENM predicted a demographical scenario of quasi-stability through time.

Conclusions

Our findings show that demographical history and isolation by distance, but not isolation by environment, drove genetic differentiation of populations. Finally, the genetic clusters do not support the two recently recognized botanical varieties of H. speciosa, but partially support Monachino's classification at least for the four sampled varieties, similar to morphological variation.

Diversification of the widespread neotropical frog Physalaemus cuvieri in response to Neogene-Quaternary geological events and climate dynamics

Here we reconstructed the demographical history and the dispersal dynamics of Physalemus cuvieri through the Neogene-Quaternary periods by coupling DNA regions with different mutation rates, ecological niche modelling, reconstruction of spatio-temporal lineage dispersal and coalescent simulations. Still, to test alternative diversification scenarios we used approximate Bayesian computation. Molecular phylogenetic analysis recovered four deep and strongly supported clades, which we interpret as population lineages. The ancestral location reconstruction placed the root in southcentral Amazonia, and the dispersal events indicate that spatial displacement was widespread early in the diversification of this species. The demographical scenario of "Multiple Refugia" with recent lineage admixture was the most likely hypothesis to predict the observed genetic parameters of P. cuvieri. Our results revealed that Neogene orogenic events might have played a prominent role in the early diversification of P. cuvieri. The species shows deep divergences with strong regional population structure, despite its widespread distribution. Final uplift of the central Brazilian Plateau and formation of the river basins in Central South America played an important role in the origin, diversification and the maintenance of P. cuvieri lineages.

The road to evolutionary success: insights from the demographic history of an Amazonian palm

Evolutionary success, as demonstrated by high abundance and a wide geographical range, is related to genetic variation and historical demography. Here we assess how climatic change during the Quaternary influenced the demography and distribution of the Neotropical swamp palm Mauritia flexuosa. Using microsatellite loci and coalescent analyses we examined how demographical dynamics affected genetic diversity, effective population size and connectivity through time and space. Mauritia flexuosa presents significant genetic differentiation between the Amazonian and Cerrado biomes and among different river basins. Amazonian lineages are ancient compared to lineages from the Cerrado, a pattern corroborated using the fossil pollen record, where the species was absent from the Cerrado during the cold and dry periods of the last glacial cycles, then returned during the wet, interglacial phases. Coalescent simulations show that the pattern of observed genetic diversity for M. flexuosa is most likely due to a range retraction during the Last Glacial Maximum, leading to multiple refugia and resulting in high differentiation between Amazonian and Cerrado biomes. Isolation-by-distance and by-environment also shaped the distribution and evolutionary success of M. flexuosa. Our study provides new insights into the historical factors that affected geographical distribution and structure genetic diversity, contributing to long-term evolutionary success.

The evolutionary history of Lygodactylus lizards in the South American open diagonal

The Pleistocenic Arc Hypothesis (PAH) posits that South American Seasonally Dry Tropical Forests (SDTF) were interconnected during Pleistocene glacial periods, enabling the expansion of species ranges that were subsequently fragmented in interglacial periods, promoting speciation. The lizard genus Lygodactylus occurs in Africa, Madagascar, and South America. Compared to the high diversity of African Lygodactylus, only two species are known to occur in South America, L. klugei and L. wetzeli, distributed in SDTFs and the Chaco, respectively. We use a phylogenetic approach based on mitochondrial (ND2) and nuclear (RAG-1) markers covering the known range of South American Lygodactylus to investigate (i) if they are monophyletic relative to their African congeners, (ii) if their divergence is congruent with the fragmentation of the PAH, and (iii) if cryptic diversity exists within currently recognized species. Maximum likelihood and Bayesian phylogenetic analyses recovered a well-supported monophyletic South American Lygodactylus, presumably resulting from a single trans-Atlantic dispersal event 29 Mya. Species delimitation analyses supported the existence of five putative species, three of them undescribed. Divergence times among L. klugei and the three putative undescribed species, all endemic to the SDTFs, are not congruent with the fragmentation of the PAH. However, fragmentation of the once broader and continuous SDTFs likely influenced the divergence of L. wetzeli in the Chaco and Lygodactylus sp. 3 (in a SDTF enclave in the Cerrado).

Cerrados in Argentina? Structure, diversity and biogeography of the woody component of a savanna in the Misiones Province

Abstract The Teyú Cuaré field, in Misiones province, Argentina, has been renowned for its flora and physiognomy, which led researchers to indicate that it could be a relict of Cerrado biome. We analyzed the floristic structure of the woody component of a savanna community in this site, and discussed the processes that could contribute to the permanence of this vegetation type over time. Perimeter and height of all woody individuals ≥ 10 cm of perimeter at soil height were collected in 12 square plots (400 m2 each one). We found 15 families and 17 species in our site and compared the woody flora surveyed at this site with the flora of other Cerrado áreas from Brazil and Paraguay. Leptolobium elegans had the highest importance value. The woody flora of the área is closely related to the Cerrado areas from Paraná state in Brazil and Canindeyú and Amambay in Paraguay. This site probably reflects old open physiognomies which were predominant in Misiones and Southern of Brazil in the late Pleistocene and middle Holocene. We inferred that the permanence of open physiognomies at Teyú Cuaré is probably related to mechanisms that act at different levels, such as geological, edaphic, anthropic, and fire disturbance.

Ecological niche modeling re-examined: A case study with the Darwin's fox

Many previous studies have attempted to assess ecological niche modeling performance using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) approaches, even though diverse problems with this metric have been pointed out in the literature. We explored different evaluation metrics based on independent testing data using the Darwin's Fox (Lycalopex fulvipes) as a detailed case in point. Six ecological niche models (ENMs; generalized linear models, boosted regression trees, Maxent, GARP, multivariable kernel density estimation, and NicheA) were explored and tested using six evaluation metrics (partial ROC, Akaike information criterion, omission rate, cumulative binomial probability), including two novel metrics to quantify model extrapolation versus interpolation (E-space index I) and extent of extrapolation versus Jaccard similarity (E-space index II). Different ENMs showed diverse and mixed performance, depending on the evaluation metric used. Because ENMs performed differently according to the evaluation metric employed, model selection should be based on the data available, assumptions necessary, and the particular research question. The typical ROC AUC evaluation approach should be discontinued when only presence data are available, and evaluations in environmental dimensions should be adopted as part of the toolkit of ENM researchers. Our results suggest that selecting Maxent ENM based solely on previous reports of its performance is a questionable practice. Instead, model comparisons, including diverse algorithms and parameterizations, should be the sine qua non for every study using ecological niche modeling. ENM evaluations should be developed using metrics that assess desired model characteristics instead of single measurement of fit between model and data. The metrics proposed herein that assess model performance in environmental space (i.e., E-space indices I and II) may complement current methods for ENM evaluation.

Aridity drives plant biogeographical sub regions in the Caatinga, the largest tropical dry forest and woodland block in South America

Our aims were to quantify and map the plant sub regions of the the Caatinga, that covers 844,453 km² and is the largest block of seasonally dry forest in South America. We performed spatial analyses of the largest dataset of woody plant distributions in this region assembled to date (of 2,666 shrub and tree species; 260 localities), compared these distributions with the current phytogeographic regionalizations, and investigated the potential environmental drivers of the floristic patterns in these sub regions. Phytogeographical regions were identified using quantitative analyses of species turnover calculated as Simpson dissimilarity index. We applied an interpolation method to map NMDS axes of compositional variation over the entire extent of the Caatinga, and then classified the compositional dissimilarity according to the number of biogeographical sub regions identified a priori using k-means analysis. We used multinomial logistic regression models to investigate the influence of contemporary climatic productivity, topographic complexity, soil characteristics, climate stability since the last glacial maximum, and the human footprint in explaining the identified sub regions. We identified nine spatially cohesive biogeographical sub regions. Current productivity, as indicated by an aridity index, was the only explanatory variable retained in the best model, explaining nearly half of the floristic variability between sub regions. The highest rates of endemism within the Caatinga were in the Core and Periphery Chapada Diamantina sub regions. Our findings suggest that the topographic complexity, soil variation, and human footprint in the Caatinga act on woody plant distributions at local scales and not as determinants of broad floristic patterns. The lack of effect of climatic stability since the last glacial maximum probably results from the fact that a single measure of climatic stability does not adequately capture the highly dynamic climatic shifts the region suffered during the Pleistocene. There was limited overlap between our results and previous Caatinga classifications.

Mitochondrial DNA analyses and ecological niche modeling reveal post-LGM expansion of the Assam macaque (Macaca assamensis) in the foothills of Nepal Himalaya

Genetic diversity of a species is influenced by multiple factors, including the Quaternary glacial-interglacial cycles and geophysical barriers. Such factors are not yet well documented for fauna from the southern border of the Himalayan region. This study used mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequences and ecological niche modeling (ENM) to explore how the late Pleistocene climatic fluctuations and complex geography of the Himalayan region have shaped genetic diversity, population genetic structure, and demographic history of the Nepalese population of Assam macaques (Macaca assamensis) in the Himalayan foothills. A total of 277 fecal samples were collected from 39 wild troops over almost the entire distribution of the species in Nepal. The mtDNA fragment encompassing the complete control region (1121 bp) was recovered from 208 samples, thus defining 54 haplotypes. Results showed low nucleotide diversity (0.0075 ± SD 0.0001) but high haplotype diversity (0.965 ± SD 0.004). The mtDNA sequences revealed a shallow population genetic structure with a moderate but statistically significant effect of isolation by distance. Demographic history analyses using mtDNA sequences suggested a post-pleistocene population expansion. Paleodistribution reconstruction projected that the potential habitat of the Assam macaque was confined to the lower elevations of central Nepal during the Last Glacial Maximum. With the onset of the Holocene climatic optimum, the glacial refugia population experienced eastward range expansion to higher elevations. We conclude that the low genetic diversity and shallow population genetic structure of the Assam macaque population in the Nepal Himalaya region are the consequence of recent demographic and spatial expansion.

Geographical patterns in climate and agricultural technology drive soybean productivity in Brazil

The impacts of global climate change have been a worldwide concern for several research areas, including those dealing with resources essential to human well being, such as agriculture, which directly impact economic activities and food security. Here we evaluate the relative effect of climate (as indicated by the Ecological Niche Model-ENM) and agricultural technology on actual soybean productivity in Brazilian municipalities and estimate the future geographic distribution of soybeans using a novel statistical approach allowing the evaluation of partial coefficients in a non-stationary (Geographically Weighted Regression; GWR) model. We found that technology was more important than climate in explaining soybean productivity in Brazil. However, some municipalities are more dependent on environmental suitability (mainly in Southern Brazil). The future environmental suitability for soybean cultivation tends to decrease by up 50% in the central region of Brazil. Meanwhile, southern-most Brazil will have more favourable conditions, with an increase of ca. 25% in environmental suitability. Considering that opening new areas for cultivation can degrade environmental quality, we suggest that, in the face of climate change impacts on soybean cultivation, the Brazilian government and producers must invest in breeding programmes and more general ecosystem-based strategies for adaptation to climate change, including the development of varieties tolerant to climate stress, and strategies to increase productivity and reduce costs (social and environmental).

The disjunct pattern of the Neotropical harvestman Discocyrtus dilatatus (Gonyleptidae) explained by climate-driven range shifts in the Quaternary: Paleodistributional and molecular evidence

The disjunct distribution of the harvestman Discocyrtus dilatatus (Opiliones, Gonyleptidae) is used as a case study to test the hypothesis of a trans-Chaco Pleistocene paleobridge during range expansion stages. This would have temporarily connected humid regions (‘Mesopotamia’ in northeastern Argentina, and the ‘Yungas’ in the northwest, NWA) in the subtropical and temperate South American lowlands. The present study combines two independent approaches: paleodistributional reconstruction, using the Species Distribution Modeling method MaxEnt and projection onto Quaternary paleoclimates (6 kya, 21 kya, 130 kya), and phylogeographic analyses based on the cytochrome oxidase subunit I molecular marker. Models predict a maximal shrinkage during the warm Last Interglacial (130 kya), and the rise of the hypothesized paleobridge in the Last Glacial Maximum (21 kya), revealing that cold-dry stages (not warm-humid ones, as supposed) enabled the range expansion of this species. The disjunction was formed in the mid-Holocene (6 kya) and is intensified under current conditions. The median-joining network shows that NWA haplotypes are peripherally related to different Mesopotamian lineages; haplotypes from Santa Fe and Córdoba Provinces consistently occupy central positions in the network. According to the dated phylogeny, Mesopotamia-NWA expansion events would have occurred in the last glacial period, in many cases closely associated to the Last Glacial Maximum, with most divergence events occurring shortly thereafter. Only two (out of nine) NWA haplotypes are shared with Mesopotamian localities. A single, presumably relictual NWA haplotype was found to have diverged much earlier, suggesting an ancient expansion event not recoverable by the paleodistributional models. Different measures of sequence statistics, genetic diversity, population structure and history of demographic changes are provided. This research offers the first available evidence for the historical origin of NWA disjunct populations of a Mesopotamian harvestman.

Climatic changes can drive the loss of genetic diversity in a Neotropical savanna tree species

The high rates of future climatic changes, compared with the rates reported for past changes, may hamper species adaptation to new climates or the tracking of suitable conditions, resulting in significant loss of genetic diversity. Trees are dominant species in many biomes and because they are long-lived, they may not be able to cope with ongoing climatic changes. Here, we coupled ecological niche modelling (ENM) and genetic simulations to forecast the effects of climatic changes on the genetic diversity and the structure of genetic clusters. Genetic simulations were conditioned to climatic variables and restricted to plant dispersal and establishment. We used a Neotropical savanna tree as species model that shows a preference for hot and drier climates, but with low temperature seasonality. The ENM predicts a decreasing range size along the more severe future climatic scenario. Additionally, genetic diversity and allelic richness also decrease with range retraction and climatic genetic clusters are lost for both future scenarios, which will lead genetic variability to homogenize throughout the landscape. Besides, climatic genetic clusters will spatially reconfigure on the landscape following displacements of climatic conditions. Our findings indicate that climate change effects will challenge population adaptation to new environmental conditions because of the displacement of genetic ancestry clusters from their optimal conditions.

Do plant populations on distinct inselbergs talk to each other? A case study of genetic connectivity of a bromeliad species in an Ocbil landscape

Here, we explore the historical and contemporaneous patterns of connectivity among Encholirium horridum populations located on granitic inselbergs in an Ocbil landscape within the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, using both nuclear and chloroplast microsatellite markers. Beyond to assess the E. horridum population genetic structure, we built species distribution models across four periods (current conditions, mid-Holocene, Last Glacial Maximum [LGM], and Last Interglacial) and inferred putative dispersal corridors using a least-cost path analysis to elucidate biogeographic patterns. Overall, high and significant genetic divergence was estimated among populations for both nuclear and plastid DNA (ΦST(n) = 0.463 and ΦST(plastid) = 0.961, respectively, p < .001). For nuclear genome, almost total absence of genetic admixture among populations and very low migration rates were evident, corroborating with the very low estimates of immigration and emigration rates observed among E. horridum populations. Based on the cpDNA results, putative dispersal routes in Sugar Loaf Land across cycles of climatic fluctuations in the Quaternary period revealed that the populations' connectivity changed little during those events. Genetic analyses highlighted the low genetic connectivity and long-term persistence of populations, and the founder effect and genetic drift seemed to have been very important processes that shaped the current diversity and genetic structure observed in both genomes. The genetic singularity of each population clearly shows the need for in situ conservation of all of them.

Demographic stability and high historical connectivity explain the diversity of a savanna tree species in the Quaternary

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Cyclic glaciations were frequent throughout the Quaternary and this affected species distribution and population differentiation worldwide. The present study reconstructed the demographic history and dispersal routes of Eugenia dysenterica lineages and investigated the effects of Quaternary climate change on its spatial pattern of genetic diversity.

METHODS

A total of 333 individuals were sampled from 23 populations and analysed by sequencing four regions of the chloroplast DNA and the internal transcribed spacer of the nuclear DNA. The analyses were performed using a multi-model inference approach based on ecological niche modelling and statistical phylogeography.

KEY RESULTS

Coalescent simulation showed that population stability through time is the most likely scenario. The palaeodistribution dynamics predicted by the ecological niche models revealed that the species was potentially distributed across a large area, extending over Central-Western Brazil through the last glaciation. The lineages of E. dysenterica dispersed from Central Brazil towards populations at the northern, western and south-eastern regions. A historical refugium through time may have favoured lineage dispersal and the maintenance of genetic diversity.

CONCLUSIONS

The results suggest that the central region of the Cerrado biome is probably the centre of distribution of E. dysenterica and that the spatial pattern of its genetic diversity may be the outcome of population stability throughout the Quaternary. The lower genetic diversity in populations in the south-eastern Cerrado biome is probably due to local climatic instability during the Quaternary.

A large historical refugium explains spatial patterns of genetic diversity in a Neotropical savanna tree species

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

The relative role of Pleistocene climate changes in driving the geographic distribution and genetic diversity of South American species is not well known, especially from open biomes such as the Cerrado, the most diverse tropical savanna, encompassing high levels of endemism. Here the effects of Quaternary climatic changes on demographic history, distribution dynamics and genetic diversity of Dimorphandra mollis, an endemic tree species widely distributed in the Cerrado, were investigated.

METHODS

A total of 38 populations covering most of the distribution of D. mollis were analysed using internal transcribed spacer (ITS) sequences and nuclear microsatellite variation [simple sequence repeats (SSRs)]. The framework incorporated statistical phylogeography, coalescent analyses and ecological niche modelling (ENM).

KEY RESULTS

Different signatures of Quaternary climatic changes were found for ITS sequences and SSRs corresponding to different time slices. Coalescent analyses revealed large and constant effective population sizes, with high historical connectivity among the populations for ITS sequences and low effective population sizes and gene flow with recent population retraction for SSRs. ENMs indicated a slight geographical range retraction during the Last Glacial Maximum. A large historical refugium across central Brazil was predicted. Spatially explicit analyses showed a spatial cline pattern in genetic diversity related to the paleodistribution of D. mollis and to the centre of its historical refugium.

CONCLUSIONS

The complex genetic patterns found in D. mollis are the result of a slight geographical range retraction during the Last Glacial Maximum followed by population expansion to the east and south from a large refugium in the central part of the Cerrado. This historical refugium is coincident with an area predicted to be climatically stable under future climate scenarios. The identified refugium should be given high priority in conservation polices to safeguard the evolutionary potential of the species under predicted future climatic changes.

Demographical history and palaeodistribution modelling show range shift towards Amazon Basin for a Neotropical tree species in the LGM

BACKGROUND

We studied the phylogeography and demographical history of Tabebuia serratifolia (Bignoniaceae) to understand the disjunct geographical distribution of South American seasonally dry tropical forests (SDTFs). We specifically tested if the multiple and isolated patches of SDTFs are current climatic relicts of a widespread and continuously distributed dry forest during the last glacial maximum (LGM), the so called South American dry forest refugia hypothesis, using ecological niche modelling (ENM) and statistical phylogeography. We sampled 235 individuals of T. serratifolia in 17 populations in Brazil and analysed the polymorphisms at three intergenic chloroplast regions and ITS nuclear ribosomal DNA.

RESULTS

Coalescent analyses showed a demographical expansion at the last c. 130 ka (thousand years before present). Simulations and ENM also showed that the current spatial pattern of genetic diversity is most likely due to a scenario of range expansion and range shift towards the Amazon Basin during the colder and arid climatic conditions associated with the LGM, matching the expected for the South American dry forest refugia hypothesis, although contrasting to the Pleistocene Arc hypothesis. Populations in more stable areas or with higher suitability through time showed higher genetic diversity. Postglacial range shift towards the Southeast and Atlantic coast may have led to spatial genome assortment due to leading edge colonization as the species tracks suitable environments, leading to lower genetic diversity in populations at higher distance from the distribution centroid at 21 ka.

CONCLUSION

Haplotype sharing or common ancestry among populations from Caatinga in Northeast Brazil, Atlantic Forest in Southeast and Cerrado biome and ENM evince the past connection among these biomes.

Coalescent Simulation and Paleodistribution Modeling for Tabebuia rosealba Do Not Support South American Dry Forest Refugia Hypothesis

Studies based on contemporary plant occurrences and pollen fossil records have proposed that the current disjunct distribution of seasonally dry tropical forests (SDTFs) across South America is the result of fragmentation of a formerly widespread and continuously distributed dry forest during the arid climatic conditions associated with the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), which is known as the modern-day dry forest refugia hypothesis. We studied the demographic history of Tabebuia rosealba (Bignoniaceae) to understand the disjunct geographic distribution of South American SDTFs based on statistical phylogeography and ecological niche modeling (ENM). We specifically tested the dry forest refugia hypothesis; i.e., if the multiple and isolated patches of SDTFs are current climatic relicts of a widespread and continuously distributed dry forest during the LGM. We sampled 235 individuals across 18 populations in Central Brazil and analyzed the polymorphisms at chloroplast (trnS-trnG, psbA-trnH and ycf6-trnC intergenic spacers) and nuclear (ITS nrDNA) genomes. We performed coalescence simulations of alternative hypotheses under demographic expectations from two a priori biogeographic hypotheses (1. the Pleistocene Arc hypothesis and, 2. a range shift to Amazon Basin) and other two demographic expectances predicted by ENMs (3. expansion throughout the Neotropical South America, including Amazon Basin, and 4. retraction during the LGM). Phylogenetic analyses based on median-joining network showed haplotype sharing among populations with evidence of incomplete lineage sorting. Coalescent analyses showed smaller effective population sizes for T. roseoalba during the LGM compared to the present-day. Simulations and ENM also showed that its current spatial pattern of genetic diversity is most likely due to a scenario of range retraction during the LGM instead of the fragmentation from a once extensive and largely contiguous SDTF across South America, not supporting the South American dry forest refugia hypothesis.

Range wide molecular data and niche modeling revealed the Pleistocene history of a global invader (Halyomorpha halys)

Invasive species’ Pleistocene history contains much information on its present population structure, dispersability and adaptability. In this study, the Pleistocene history of a global invasive pest (Brown Marmorated Stink Bug BMSB, Halyomorpha halys) was unveiled using the coupled approach of phylogeography and ecological niche modelling. Rangewide molecular data suggests that the Taiwan and other native populations had diverged in mid-Pleistocene. In mainland China, the native BMSB did not experience population contraction and divergence during last glacial, but persisted in interconnected populations. Combined Bayesian Skyline Plot (BSP) and niche modelling revealed a rapid expansion occurred during the transition of Last Inter Glacial (LIG) to Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). High genetic diversity and multi-reticular haplotypes network exist in the original sources populations of BMSB invasion in northern China. They were speculated to be colonized from the central China, with many derived haplotypes evolved to adapt the novel environment. The ENM future prediction suggest that BMSB may expand northward to higher latitudes in the US and Europe, because of its high invasive ability, together with the available suitable climate space there.

Phylogeography of a semi-aquatic bug, Microvelia horvathi (Hemiptera: Veliidae): an evaluation of historical, geographical and ecological factors

Subtropical China is a centre of speciation and well known for its high biological diversity and endemism. To understand the impact of historical, geographical and ecological factors on the intraspecific lineage divergence of invertebrates, we examined these processes in a semiaquatic bug, Microvelia horvathi (Hemiptera: Veliidae). Three hypotheses were developed using ecological niche models (ENM). We tested these hypotheses using mitochondrial (COI + COII) and nuclear data (ITS1 + 5.8S + ITS2). The phylogenic analysis revealed a shallow divergence in mitochondrial data. Clade I was mostly confined to the northern region and clade II was nearly restricted to the southern region. The historical process of Pleistocene climatic fluctuations during the LGM promoted divergence, along with such geographical barriers as the Wuyi, Nanling and Xuefeng mountains and ecological factors of temperature and vegetation type, contributed to these shallow genetic divergences and helped maintain them. The north-south population differentiation probably occurred during the transition from LIG to LGM, with post-LGM population expansion. The results of genetic data were mostly consistent with the spatial predictions from ENM. Our study emphasizes the multiple effects influencing genetic population differentiation, and also contributes to our knowledge of the phylogeography of other aquatic organisms in subtropical China.

Anonymous nuclear markers reveal taxonomic incongruence and long-term disjunction in a cactus species complex with continental-island distribution in South America

The Pilosocereus aurisetus complex consists of eight cactus species with a fragmented distribution associated to xeric enclaves within the Cerrado biome in eastern South America. The phylogeny of these species is incompletely resolved, and this instability complicates evolutionary analyses. Previous analyses based on both plastid and microsatellite markers suggested that this complex contained species with inherent phylogeographic structure, which was attributed to recent diversification and recurring range shifts. However, limitations of the molecular markers used in these analyses prevented some questions from being properly addressed. In order to better understand the relationship among these species and make a preliminary assessment of the genetic structure within them, we developed anonymous nuclear loci from pyrosequencing data of 40 individuals from four species in the P. aurisetus complex. The data obtained from these loci were used to identify genetic clusters within species, and to investigate the phylogenetic relationship among these inferred clusters using a species tree methodology. Coupled with a palaeodistributional modelling, our results reveal a deep phylogenetic and climatic disjunction between two geographic lineages. Our results highlight the importance of sampling more regions from the genome to gain better insights on the evolution of species with an intricate evolutionary history. The methodology used here provides a feasible approach to develop numerous genealogical molecular markers throughout the genome for non-model species. These data provide a more robust hypothesis for the relationship among the lineages of the P. aurisetus complex.

Trans-Amazon dispersal potential for Crotalus durissus during Pleistocene climate events

Two disjunct distributional areas of Crotalus durissus(Neotropical rattlesnake) are in open habitats north and south of the Amazon Basin and are presently separated by humid rainforest habitats. We used ecological niche modeling to identify and investigate potential dispersal pathways for this species between the two areas during the late Pleistocene. Niches estimated for the two populations did not differ significantly. Our analyses indicated two possible, but a single most likely, potential routes of dispersal during the last glacial cycle. These results are important to understanding the history of Amazon Basin humid forest biotas, as they suggest agents of isolation among putative humid forest refugia in the form of dry forest and scrub, and associated biotas.

Multi-model inference in comparative phylogeography: an integrative approach based on multiple lines of evidence

Comparative phylogeography has its roots in classical biogeography and, historically, relies on a pattern-based approach. Here, we present a model-based framework for comparative phylogeography. Our framework was initially developed for statistical phylogeography based on a multi-model inference approach, by coupling ecological niche modeling, coalescent simulation and direct spatio-temporal reconstruction of lineage diffusion using a relaxed random walk model. This multi-model inference framework is particularly useful to investigate the complex dynamics and current patterns in genetic diversity in response to processes operating on multiple taxonomic levels in comparative phylogeography. In addition, because of the lack, or incompleteness of fossil record, the understanding of the role of biogeographical events (vicariance and dispersal routes) in most regions worldwide is barely known. Thus, we believe that the expansion of that framework for multiple species under a comparative approach may give clues on genetic legacies in response to Quaternary climate changes and other biogeographical processes.

Correlation between genetic diversity and environmental suitability: taking uncertainty from ecological niche models into account

The hindcast of shifts in the geographical ranges of species as estimated by ecological niche modelling (ENM) has been coupled with phylogeographical patterns, allowing the inference of past processes that drove population differentiation and genetic variability. However, more recently, some studies have suggested that maps of environmental suitability estimated by ENM may be correlated to species' abundance, raising the possibility of using environmental suitability to infer processes related to population demographic dynamics and genetic variability. In both cases, one of the main problems is that there is a wide variation in ENM development methods and climatic models. In this study, we analyse the relationship between heterozygosity (He) and environmental suitability from multiple ENMs for 25 population estimates for Dipteryx alata, a widely distributed, endemic tree species of the Cerrado region of central Brazil. We propose a new approach for generating a statistical distribution of correlations under randomly generated ENM. The confidence intervals from these distributions indicate how model selection with different properties affects the ability to detect a correlation of interest (e.g. the correlation between He and suitability). Additionally, our approach allows us to explore which particular ensemble of ENMs produces the better result for finding an association between environmental suitability and He. Caution is necessary when choosing a method or a climatic data set for modelling geographical distributions, but the new approach proposed here provides a conservative way to evaluate the ability of ensembles to detect patterns of interest.

Relaxed random walk model coupled with ecological niche modeling unravel the dispersal dynamics of a Neotropical savanna tree species in the deeper Quaternary

Understanding the dispersal routes of Neotropical savanna tree species is an essential step to unravel the effects of past climate change on genetic patterns, species distribution and population demography. Here we reconstruct the demographic history and dispersal dynamics of the Neotropical savanna tree species Tabebuia aurea to understand the effects of Quaternary climate change on its current spatial patterns of genetic diversity. We sampled 285 individuals from 21 populations throughout Brazilian savannas and sequenced all individuals for three chloroplast intergenic spacers and ITS nrDNA. We analyzed data using a multi-model inference framework by coupling the relaxed random walk model (RRW), ecological niche modeling (ENM) and statistical phylogeography. The most recent common ancestor of T. aurea lineages dated from ~4.0 ± 2.5 Ma. T. aurea lineages cyclically dispersed from the West toward the Central-West Brazil, and from the Southeast toward the East and Northeast Brazil, following the paleodistribution dynamics shown by the ENMs through the last glacial cycle. A historical refugium through time may have allowed dispersal of lineages among populations of Central Brazil, overlapping with population expansion during interglacial periods and the diversification of new lineages. Range and population expansion through the Quaternary were, respectively, the most frequent prediction from ENMs and the most likely demographic scenario from coalescent simulations. Consistent phylogeographic patterns among multiple modeling inferences indicate a promising approach, allowing us to understand how cyclical climate changes through the Quaternary drove complex population dynamics and the current patterns of species distribution and genetic diversity.

THE DISTRIBUTION OF WOODY LEGUMES IN NEOTROPICAL DRY FORESTS: THE PLEISTOCENE ARC THEORY 20 YEARS ON

The Pleistocene Arc Theory (PAT) suggests that present-day disjunct fragments of dry forests in central tropical South America give evidence of a previously more continuous distribution during the Pleistocene that has been disrupted by dry-cold vs. humid-warm climatic cycles. This Arc extends from NE Brazil to NE Argentina and eastern Paraguay, through the Chiquitanía to NW Argentina and SW Bolivia and into the dry inter-Andean valleys in Peru and Ecuador, with intrusions into the Great Chaco. Seasonally Dry Tropical Forests (SDTFs) are floristically and physiognomically dominated by woody legumes, mostly deciduous in the dry season. In the last two decades field collection and research on legume taxa has greatly increased, with a significant number of taxonomic revisions and molecular phylogenetic studies, together with some paleoclimatic modelling studies. The evidence accumulated in the last 23 years has confirmed the integrity of the Chaco and Caatingas phytogeographical provinces, with an impressive and increasing level of botanical endemism discovered. The PAT pattern has also been supported, specifically through the mapping of five selected woody Leguminosae species (Anadenanthera colubrina, Enterolobium contortisiliquum, Pterogyne nitens, Amburana cearensis and Piptadenia viridiflora). The pre-existing nuclei of South American SDTF (Caatingas, Misiones and Piedmont) are now increased to four with the postulation of the Chiquitanía Nucleus in south-eastern Bolivia and bordering Paraguay. Some new endemisms are compiled from recent literature and mapped for the Misiones and Chiquitanía nuclei. The need for more botanical collections and further taxonomic, phylogenetic and demographic studies of South American legumes is emphasised.