Historical range contractions can predict extinction risk in extant mammals

Climate change is amongst the main threats to biodiversity. Considering extant mammals endured Quaternary climate change, we analyzed the extent to which this past change predicts current mammals’ extinction risk at global and biogeographical scales. We accessed range dynamics by modeling the potential distribution of all extant terrestrial mammals in the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21,000 years ago) and in current climate conditions and used extinction risk from IUCN red list. We built General Linear Mixed-Effects Models to test the magnitude with which the variation in geographic range (ΔRange) and a proxy for abundance (ΔSuitability) between the LGM and present-day predicts current mammal’s extinction risk. We found past climate change most strongly reduced the geographical range and climatic suitability of threatened rather than non-threatened mammals. Quaternary range contractions and reduced suitability explain around 40% of species extinction risk, particularly for small-bodied mammals. At global and biogeographical scales, all groups that suffered significant Quaternary range contractions now contain a greater proportion of threatened species when compared to groups whose ranges did not significantly contract. This reinforces the importance of using historical range contractions as a key predictor of extinction risk for species in the present and future climate change scenarios and supports current efforts to fight climate change for biodiversity conservation.

Microhabitat preferences of the freshwater prawn Macrobrachium jelskii (Decapoda: Palaemonidae)

ABSTRACT We analyzed the microhabitat preferences of Macrobrachium jelskii (Miers, 1877) males and females inhabiting an urban water reservoir in Cruz das Almas, Bahia, Brazil. Prawns were collected monthly, from March 2015 to February 2016, in three microhabitats, using a sieve. Each microhabitat was dominated by one macrophyte species: Eleocharis sp. (M1), Cabomba sp. (M2), and Nymphaea sp. (M3). The prawns were measured (carapace length), and categorized as juvenile males, adult males, juvenile females, non-ovigerous adult females and ovigerous adult females. An analysis of variance (ANOVA) was used to compare the number and size of individuals. The sex ratio and frequency of ovigerous females in the three microhabitats were also calculated. The sex ratio was biased towards females in M1 and did not deviate from 1:1 in M2 and M3. When prawns were separated into five categories we observed that non-ovigerous adult females were more abundant in M1, while adult males were the most abundant demographic category in M2 and M3. Juveniles of both sexes and ovigerous females showed no microhabitat preference, although M1 and M2 appeared to be more suitable for the latter. Adult females were the largest individuals in all microhabitats. Food availability, lower depth and lower predation pressure in M1 are the main factors that make M1 more suitable for M. jelskii, particularly non-ovigerous adult females and larger adult males. Intraspecific competition for shelter in M1 might also occur and adult females win this competition due to their larger body size. Therefore, adult males are found in higher abundance in M2 and M3 and the juvenile of both sexes spread evenly across all microhabitats. Our results help to understand the ecological role and the niche used by M. jelskii. Future studies on the habitat choice and predation under laboratory conditions should help to understand the behavior of this species.

Reducing Wallacean shortfalls for the coralsnakes of the Micrurus lemniscatus species complex: Present and future distributions under a changing climate

South American coralsnakes are characterized by inconspicuous and poorly known species, which are potentially very sensitive to climate change. Here, we assess the impact of future climate change on the distributions of the Micrurus lemniscatus species complex after addressing the Wallacean shortfalls and refining the knowledge about their current geographic distributions. We also evaluate the efficiency of the current reserve network to protect the species in the present and future. We applied ecological niche model tools through a carefully examined set of occurrence records to generate potential present distributions and to project these distributions into future scenarios of climate change. Specific thresholds based on occurrence records along with expert opinions were used to delineate the geographic distribution of each species. A hierarchical ANOVA was applied to evaluate the uncertainties in species distributions across niche modeling methods and climate models and nested into the time factor (present and future). Multiple regression models were used to infer the relative importance of the climatic variables to determine the species’ suitability. A gap analysis was performed to address the representativeness of species distributions into protected areas. Predicted geographic distributions were compatible with the known distributions and the expert opinions, except for M. l. carvalhoi. New areas for field research were identified. Variation in precipitation was the most important factor defining the habitat suitability for all species, except for M. diutius. All taxa (except M. l. lemniscatus) will shrink their distributions in the future; less than 50% of the present suitable areas are protected in reserve networks, and less than 40% of these areas will be held in reserves in the future. We found strong evidence that coralsnakes may be highly sensitive to the ongoing changes and must be protected.

Geographical patterns in climate and agricultural technology drive soybean productivity in Brazil

The impacts of global climate change have been a worldwide concern for several research areas, including those dealing with resources essential to human well being, such as agriculture, which directly impact economic activities and food security. Here we evaluate the relative effect of climate (as indicated by the Ecological Niche Model-ENM) and agricultural technology on actual soybean productivity in Brazilian municipalities and estimate the future geographic distribution of soybeans using a novel statistical approach allowing the evaluation of partial coefficients in a non-stationary (Geographically Weighted Regression; GWR) model. We found that technology was more important than climate in explaining soybean productivity in Brazil. However, some municipalities are more dependent on environmental suitability (mainly in Southern Brazil). The future environmental suitability for soybean cultivation tends to decrease by up 50% in the central region of Brazil. Meanwhile, southern-most Brazil will have more favourable conditions, with an increase of ca. 25% in environmental suitability. Considering that opening new areas for cultivation can degrade environmental quality, we suggest that, in the face of climate change impacts on soybean cultivation, the Brazilian government and producers must invest in breeding programmes and more general ecosystem-based strategies for adaptation to climate change, including the development of varieties tolerant to climate stress, and strategies to increase productivity and reduce costs (social and environmental).

Multi-sectorial convergence in greenhouse gas emissions

This paper uses the World Input-Output Database (WIOD) to test the hypothesis of per capita convergence in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for a multi-sectorial panel of countries. The empirical strategy applies conventional estimators of random and fixed effects and Arellano and Bond's (1991) GMM to the main pollutants related to the greenhouse effect. For reasonable empirical specifications, the model revealed robust evidence of per capita convergence in CH₄ emissions in the agriculture, food, and services sectors. The evidence of convergence in CO₂ emissions was moderate in the following sectors: agriculture, food, non-durable goods manufacturing, and services. In all cases, the time for convergence was less than 15 years. Regarding emissions by energy use, the largest source of global warming, there was only moderate evidence in the extractive industry sector-all other pollutants presented little or no evidence.

HEALTH LAW AND ELDERLY PERSONS

The article stresses that the elderly probably do not need sophisticated health care because they probably suffer from known pathologies and are chronically ill. The elderly probably do need improvements in: 1. Law focused on respect for patients, including: Protection and promotion of personal autonomy and informed consent practice; adequate information; slowness and time to understand and decide. They also need effective legal representation and quick schemes for damage compensation. Other needs include: "ageing in place"; maintaining links with places, family and peers. 2. Law focused on access and on appropriate medical techniques, including: access; quality of care; trained professionals; long- term care instead of acute care; friendly modes of administration of medicines; friendly medical devices; information technology; medical research; and clinical trials. 3. Law focused on the sustainability of health care systems,including: social and technical innovation; promoting one's health through healthy lifestyles; and discussing the rationing of care.

Conservation biogeography of the Cerrado's wild edible plants under climate change: Linking biotic stability with agricultural expansion

REMISE OF THE STUDY: Wild edible plants (WEPs) have an important cultural and economic role in human population worldwide. Human impacts are quickly converting natural habitats in agricultural, cattle ranch, and urbanized lands, putting native species on peril of risk of extinction, including some WEPs. Moreover, global climate changes also can pose another threat to species persistency. Here, we established conservation priorities for the Cerrado, a neotropical region in South America with high levels of plant endemism and vulnerability, aiming to assure long-term persistency of 16 most important WEPs. We evaluated these conservation priorities using a conservation biogeography framework using ecological patterns and process at a biogeographical scale to deal with species conservation features.

METHODS

We built ecological niche models for 16 WEPs from Cerrado in the neotropics using climate models for preindustrial, past (Last Glacial Maximum) and future (year 2080) time periods to establish climatically stable areas through time, finding refugias for these WEPs. We used a spatial prioritization algorithm based on the spatial pattern of irreplaceability across the neotropics, aiming to ensure the persistence of at least 25% of range size in climatically stable areas for each WEP, using agricultural models as constraints.

KEY RESULTS

The Southeast Cerrado was the most biotically stable and irreplaceable region for the WEPs compared with other areas across the neotropics.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings strongly suggest that the Southeast Cerrado should be considered a conservation priority, with new protected areas to be sustainably managed and restored, to guarantee the supply of cultural and ecosystem services provided from the Cerrado's WEPs.

A coupled phylogeographical and species distribution modelling approach recovers the demographical history of a Neotropical seasonally dry forest tree species

We investigated here the demographical history of Tabebuia impetiginosa (Bignoniaceae) to understand the dynamics of the disjunct geographical distribution of South American seasonally dry forests (SDFs), based on coupling an ensemble approach encompassing hindcasting species distribution modelling and statistical phylogeographical analysis. We sampled 17 populations (280 individuals) in central Brazil and analysed the polymorphisms at chloroplast (trnS-trnG, psbA-trnH, and ycf6-trnC intergenic spacers) and nuclear (ITS nrDNA) genomes. Phylogenetic analyses based on median-joining network showed no haplotype sharing among population but strong evidence of incomplete lineage sorting. Coalescent analyses showed historical constant populations size, negligible gene flow among populations, and an ancient time to most recent common ancestor dated from ~4.7 ± 1.1 Myr BP. Most divergences dated from the Lower Pleistocene, and no signal of important population size reduction was found in coalescent tree and tests of demographical expansion. Demographical scenarios were built based on past geographical range dynamic models, using two a priori biogeographical hypotheses ('Pleistocene Arc' and 'Amazonian SDF expansion') and on two additional hypotheses suggested by the palaeodistribution modelling built with several algorithms for distribution modelling and palaeoclimatic data. The simulation of these demographical scenarios showed that the pattern of diversity found so far for T. impetiginosa is in consonance with a palaeodistribution expansion during the last glacial maximum (LGM, 21 kyr BP), strongly suggesting that the current disjunct distribution of T. impetiginosa in SDFs may represent a climatic relict of a once more wide distribution.