Principal climatic and edaphic determinants of Culicoides biting midge abundance during the 2007-2008 bluetongue epidemic in the Netherlands, based on OVI light trap data

Relationship Between Weather and Changes in Annual and Seasonal Abundance of Culicoides sonorensis (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) in Alberta

Factors influencing annual and seasonal abundance of Culicoides sonorensis (Wirth and Jones) (Diptera; Ceratopogonidae) were examined at 10 sites in southern Alberta using negative binomial regression. Annual abundance varied among locations with greatest abundance in a narrow geographic band between -112.17 and -112.64°W longitude and 49.32 and 50.17°N latitude. Sites were grouped depending on whether abundance was continuous and high; discontinuous and low; or sporadic and low without much loss of information. Maximum annual abundance declined with spring precipitation, increased with spring temperature, and was unrelated to spring relative humidity, suggesting that abundance is highest during years with early drought conditions. Seasonal abundance was associated with the same factors but was further influenced by temperature and relative humidity during the sample intervals. Lagged effects were apparent, suggesting abundance increased with warmer temperatures over a six-week period, and increased when relative humidity declined closer to the sampling period. Predicted values were slightly biased and tended to overestimate observed data, but this could be adjusted using calibration curves. The model can also be used to predict presence/absence of C. sonorensis and will be useful for developing risk assessments.

Prevalence and risk factors of bluetongue virus infection in sheep and goats in China: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Bluetongue is a viral disease transmitted by the bite of bloodsucking insects, which mainly occurs in sheep, goats, and cattle. Bluetongue is characterized by fever, leukopenia, and severe catarrhal inflammation of the oral and gastrointestinal mucosa. The present study aimed to evaluate and analyze the prevalence of bluetongue and its associated risk factors in sheep and goats in China. We collected 59 publications from 1988 to 2019 through searches at ScienceDirect, PubMed, the Chongqing VIP Chinese journal database, Wanfang database, and Chinese Web of knowledge. In these studies, a total of 123,982 sheep and goats across 7 regions of China were investigated, and the pooled prevalence of bluetongue in sheep and goats was 18.6%, as assessed using serological methods. The prevalence of bluetongue in Southern China was 30.3%, which was significantly higher than that in Northeastern China (4.7%). The prevalence of bluetongue between sheep (12.9%) and goats (28.1%) was significantly different (P < 0.05). Detection methods subgroup analysis showed that the prevalence of bluetongue was significantly higher (P < 0.05) in the others group (43.8%) than in the agar immunodiffusion (15.9%) and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay groups (20.5%). In addition, different geographical factors (latitude range, longitude range, altitude range, average precipitation, and average temperature) could affect the prevalence. Our results suggested that bluetongue is widespread in sheep and goats, and sheep and goats in contact with insect media, such as Culicoides, or in a warm and humid environment, could have an increased prevalence of bluetongue disease. Animal disease prevention and control departments should focus on continuous monitoring of the bluetongue epidemic in sheep and goats to prevent and control outbreaks.

Seroprevalence and Risk Factors of the Bluetongue Virus in Cattle in China From 1988 to 2019: A Comprehensive Literature Review and Meta-Analysis

Background: Bluetongue caused by the bluetongue virus (BTV) is a non-contagious and an insect-borne disease mainly affecting domestic and wild ruminants. Bluetongue in cattle is associated with vesicular lesions, weight loss, low milk production, and low reproductive capacity. It should not be ignored as it is associated with large economic losses to the livestock breeding industry in China. Although many studies have investigated bluetongue virus infection in cattle, no nationwide study on the prevalence of bluetongue virus infection in cattle from China has yet been conducted. This meta-analysis aimed to evaluate the seroprevalence and risk factors for bluetongue in cattle. Results: We collected 50 publications from 1988 to 2019 through PubMed, ScienceDirect, Chinese Web of Knowledge (CNKI), VIP Chinese journal database, and Wanfang database. A total of the pooled bluetongue seroprevalence of 12.2% (5,332/87,472) in cattle was tested. The point estimate of bluetongue collected from 2001 to 2011 was 22.5% (95% CI: 1.2-58.9), which was higher than after 2012 (9.9%, 95% CI: 3.3-19.4). The analysis of the feeding model subgroup revealed that the seroprevalence of bluetongue was significantly higher (P < 0.05) among free-range cattle (22.5%; 95% CI: 7.7-42.3) than among cattle from intensive farming systems (1.8%; 95% CI: 0.0-6.7). The seroprevalence of bluetongue in different species showed significant variation (P < 0.05), with the highest seroprevalence of 39.8% (95% CI: 18.7-63.0) in buffalo and the lowest seroprevalence of 4.3% (95% CI: 1.2-9.0) in yak. In the zoogeographical division subgroup, the seroprevalence of bluetongue correlated positively within a certain range with the species distribution of Culicoides. Conclusion: Our findings suggested that bluetongue was prevalent in cattle in China. In addition, the contact with sheep, other ruminants, or transmission media such as Culicoides may increase the seroprevalence of bluetongue disease in cattle. It is necessary to carry out continuous monitoring of the bluetongue seroprevalence. Moreover, comprehensive and improved strategies and measures should be implemented to prevent and control the spread of bluetongue.

Epidemiological surveillance of Schmallenberg virus in small ruminants in southern Spain

Schmallenberg virus (SBV) is an emerging Culicoides-borne Orthobunyavirus that affects ruminant species. Between 2011 and 2013, it was responsible for a large-scale epidemic in Europe. In the present study, we aimed to determine the seroprevalence, spatial distribution and risk factors associated with SBV exposure in sheep and goats in the region where the first Schmallenberg disease outbreak in Spain was reported. Blood samples from 1,796 small ruminants from 120 farms were collected in Andalusia (southern Spain) between 2015 and 2017. Antibodies against SBV were detected in 536 of 1,796 animals (29.8%; 95%CI: 27.7-32.0) using a commercial blocking ELISA. The individual seroprevalence according to species was 31.1% (280/900; 95%CI: 28.1-34.1) in sheep and 28.6% (256/896; 95%CI: 25.6-31.5) in goats. The farm prevalence was 76.7% (95%CI: 69.1-84.2). Seropositivity to SBV was confirmed in both sheep and goats in all provinces by virus neutralization test. Two significant (p < .001) spatial clusters of high seroprevalence were identified. The generalized estimating equation analysis showed that management system (extensive), temperature (>14ºC) and altitude (<400 metres above sea level) were risk factors associated with SBV exposure in small ruminants. Our results highlight widespread but not homogeneous circulation of SBV in small ruminant populations in Spain.

Identifying Spanish Areas at More Risk of Monthly BTV Transmission with a Basic Reproduction Number Approach

Bluetongue virus (BTV) causes a disease that is endemic in Spain and its two major biological vector species, C. imicola and the Obsoletus complex species, differ greatly in their ecology and distribution. Understanding the seasonality of BTV transmission in risk areas is key to improving surveillance and control programs, as well as to better understand the pathogen transmission networks between wildlife and livestock. Here, monthly risk transmission maps were generated using risk categories based on well-known BTV R0 equations and predicted abundances of the two most relevant vectors in Spain. Previously, Culicoides spp. predicted abundances in mainland Spain and the Balearic Islands were obtained using remote sensing data and random forest machine learning algorithm. Risk transmission maps were externally assessed with the estimated date of infection of BTV-1 and BTV-4 historical outbreaks. Our results highlight the differences in risk transmission during April-October, June-August being the period with higher R0 values. Likewise, a natural barrier has been identified between northern and central-southern areas at risk that may hamper BTV spread between them. Our results can be relevant to implement risk-based interventions for the prevention, control and surveillance of BTV and other diseases shared between livestock and wildlife host populations.

Tracking Community Timing: Pattern and Determinants of Seasonality in Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) in Northern Florida

Community dynamics are embedded in hierarchical spatial–temporal scales that connect environmental drivers with species assembly processes. Culicoides species are hematophagous arthropod vectors of orbiviruses that impact wild and domestic ruminants. A better sense of Culicoides dynamics over time is important because sympatric species can lengthen the seasonality of virus transmission. We tested a putative departure from the four seasons calendar in the phenology of Culicoides and the vector subassemblage in the Florida panhandle. Two years of weekly abundance data, temporal scales, persistence and environmental thresholds were analyzed using a tripartite Culicoides β-diversity based modeling approach. Culicoides phenology followed a two-season regime and was explained by stream flow and temperature, but not rainfall. Species richness fit a nested pattern where the species recruitment was maximized during spring months. Midges were active year-round, and two suspected vectors species, Culicoides venustus and Culicoides stellifer, were able to sustain and connect the seasonal modules. Persistence suggests that Orbivirus maintenance does not rely on overwintering and that viruses are maintained year-round, with the seasonal dynamics resembling subtropical Culicoides communities with temporal-overlapping between multivoltine species. Viewing Culicoides-borne orbiviruses as a time-sensitive community-based issue, our results help to recommend when management operations should be delivered.

A model for the assessment of bluetongue virus serotype 1 persistence in Spain

Bluetongue virus (BTV) is an arbovirus of ruminants that has been circulating in Europe continuously for more than two decades and has become endemic in some countries such as Spain. Spain is ideal for BTV epidemiological studies since BTV outbreaks from different sources and serotypes have occurred continuously there since 2000; BTV-1 has been reported there from 2007 to 2017. Here we develop a model for BTV-1 endemic scenario to estimate the risk of an area becoming endemic, as well as to identify the most influential factors for BTV-1 persistence. We created abundance maps at 1-km2 spatial resolution for the main vectors in Spain, Culicoides imicola and Obsoletus and Pulicaris complexes, by combining environmental satellite data with occurrence models and a random forest machine learning algorithm. The endemic model included vector abundance and host-related variables (farm density). The three most relevant variables in the endemic model were the abundance of C. imicola and Obsoletus complex and density of goat farms (AUC 0.86); this model suggests that BTV-1 is more likely to become endemic in central and southwestern regions of Spain. It only requires host- and vector-related variables to identify areas at greater risk of becoming endemic for bluetongue. Our results highlight the importance of suitable Culicoides spp. prediction maps for bluetongue epidemiological studies and decision-making about control and eradication measures.

Longitudinal monitoring of Culicoides in Belgium between 2007 and 2011: local variation in population dynamics parameters warrant cautious use of monitoring data

BACKGROUND

Several European countries suffered important economic losses during the past decade due to the emergence of bluetongue and Schmallenberg viruses. Both are viruses of veterinary importance and are spread by Culicoides spp. This triggered many European countries to start Culicoides population monitoring. Recently a one year monitoring study at 16 sites in Belgium revealed that important variation existed in Culicoides abundance and species diversity between collection sites. In order to analyze whether this variation is consistent over years, a detailed analysis of monitoring data collected at seven locations in Belgium between 2007 and 2011 was performed in this study. At all locations, biting midges were collected with OVI black light traps set-up in close proximity to livestock.

RESULTS

In total, 42 different Culicoides species were morphologically identified. Species of the subgenus Avaritia represented 83% of all collected midges. Nevertheless, important differences in species composition were found between sites. Furthermore, statistical differences between sites were found for the total and maximum annual abundance, showing that a consistent higher or lower number of Culicoides could be collected depending on the selected collection site. Yearly, up to 16 and 30-fold differences in total and maximum annual abundances between sites, respectively, were found. Also the month in which most Culicoides were collected varied greatly between years, both at local (from May to October) and country level [May (2008), June (2010), July (2009), August (2011), October (2007)]. Finally, the average vector-free period over all sites and years was 173 days and could roughly be defined between November and the end of April. Interestingly, important yearly variations of up to two months in the duration of the vector-free period were found between the studied collection sites. In contrast to the abundance parameters, no specific sites could however be identified where monitoring consistently showed shorter or longer vector-free periods.

CONCLUSIONS

In conclusion, our results show that the selection of collection sites for Culicoides monitoring, even in a small country such as Belgium, strongly influences abundance parameters and that yearly variation in seasonality occurs. This emphasizes that care should be taken when using such parameters in risk assessments for transmission of Culicoides-borne diseases and that more clear and strict guidelines for Culicoides monitoring should be considered when monitoring data are used for legislative purposes.

Retrospective analysis of Bluetongue farm risk profile definition, based on biology, farm management practices and climatic data

Bluetongue (BT) is a vector-borne disease transmitted by species of Culicoides midges (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae). Many studies have contributed to clarifying various aspects of its aetiology, epidemiology and vector dynamic; however, BT remains a disease of epidemiological and economic importance that affects ruminants worldwide. Since 2000, the Sardinia region has been the most affected area of the Mediterranean basin. The region is characterised by wide pastoral areas for sheep and represents the most likely candidate region for the study of Bluetongue virus (BTV) distribution and prevalence in Italy. Furthermore, specific information on the farm level and epidemiological studies needs to be provided to increase the knowledge on the disease's spread and to provide valid mitigation strategies in Sardinia. This study conducted a punctual investigation into the spatial patterns of BTV transmission to define a risk profile for all Sardinian farmsby using a logistic multilevel mixed model that take into account agro-meteorological aspects, as well as farm characteristics and management. Data about animal density (i.e. sheep, goats and cattle), vaccination, previous outbreaks, altitude, land use, rainfall, evapotranspiration, water surface, and farm management practices (i.e. use of repellents, treatment against insect vectors, storage of animals in shelter overnight, cleaning, presence of mud and manure) were collected for 12,277 farms for the years 2011-2015. The logistic multilevel mixed model showed the fundamental role of climatic factors in disease development and the protective role of good management, vaccination, outbreak in the previous year and altitude. Regional BTV risk maps were developed, based on the predictor values of logistic model results, and updated every 10 days. These maps were used to identify, 20 days in advance, the areas at highest risk. The risk farm profile, as defined by the model, would provide specific information about the role of each factor for all Sardinian institutions involved in devising BT prevention and control strategies.

Cost distribution of bluetongue surveillance and vaccination programmes in Austria and Switzerland (2007-2016)

Bluetongue virus (BTV) is an emerging transboundary disease in Europe, which can cause significant production losses among ruminants. The analysis presented here assessed the costs of BTV surveillance and vaccination programmes in Austria and Switzerland between 2007 and 2016. Costs were compared with respect to time, type of programme, geographical area and who was responsible for payment. The total costs of the BTV vaccination and surveillance programmes in Austria amounted to €23.6 million, whereas total costs in Switzerland were €18.3 million. Our analysis demonstrates that the costs differed between years and geographical areas, both within and between the two countries. Average surveillance costs per animal amounted to approximately €3.20 in Austria compared with €1.30 in Switzerland, whereas the average vaccination costs per animal were €6.20 in Austria and €7.40 in Switzerland. The comparability of the surveillance costs is somewhat limited, however, due to differences in each nation’s surveillance (and sampling) strategy. Given the importance of the export market for cattle production, investments in such programmes are more justified for Austria than for Switzerland. The aim of the retrospective assessment presented here is to assist veterinary authorities in planning and implementing cost-effective and efficient control strategies for emerging livestock diseases.

Geographical distribution of Culicoides (DIPTERA: CERATOPOGONIDAE) in mainland Portugal: Presence/absence modelling of vector and potential vector species

Vector-borne diseases are not only accounted responsible for their burden on human health-care systems, but also known to cause economic constraints to livestock and animal production. Animals are affected directly by the transmitted pathogens and indirectly when animal movement is restricted. Distribution of such diseases depends on climatic and social factors, namely, environmental changes, globalization, trade and unplanned urbanization. Culicoides biting midges are responsible for the transmission of several pathogenic agents with relevant economic impact. Due to a fragmentary knowledge of their ecology, occurrence is difficult to predict consequently, limiting the control of these arthropod vectors. In order to understand the distribution of Culicoides species, in mainland Portugal, data collected during the National Entomologic Surveillance Program for Bluetongue disease (2005-2013), were used for statistical evaluation. Logistic regression analysis was preformed and prediction maps (per season) were obtained for vector and potentially vector species. The variables used at the present study were selected from WorldClim (two climatic variables) and CORINE databases (twenty-two land cover variables). This work points to an opposite distribution of C. imicola and species from the Obsoletus group within mainland Portugal. Such findings are evidenced in autumn, with the former appearing in Central and Southern regions. Although appearing northwards, on summer and autumn, C. newsteadi reveals a similar distribution to C. imicola. The species C. punctatus appears in all Portuguese territory throughout the year. Contrary, C. pulicaris is poorly caught in all areas of mainland Portugal, being paradoxical present near coastal areas and higher altitude regions.

Mechanistic model for predicting the seasonal abundance of Culicoides biting midges and the impacts of insecticide control

BACKGROUND

Understanding seasonal patterns of abundance of insect vectors is important for optimisation of control strategies of vector-borne diseases. Environmental drivers such as temperature, humidity and photoperiod influence vector abundance, but it is not generally known how these drivers combine to affect seasonal population dynamics.

METHODS

In this paper, we derive and analyse a novel mechanistic stage-structured simulation model for Culicoides biting midges-the principle vectors of bluetongue and Schmallenberg viruses which cause mortality and morbidity in livestock and impact trade. We model variable life-history traits as functional forms that are dependent on environmental drivers, including air temperature, soil temperature and photoperiod. The model is fitted to Obsoletus group adult suction-trap data sampled daily at five locations throughout the UK for 2008.

RESULTS

The model predicts population dynamics that closely resemble UK field observations, including the characteristic biannual peaks of adult abundance. Using the model, we then investigate the effects of insecticide control, showing that control strategies focussing on the autumn peak of adult midge abundance have the highest impact in terms of population reduction in the autumn and averaged over the year. Conversely, control during the spring peak of adult abundance leads to adverse increases in adult abundance in the autumn peak.

CONCLUSIONS

The mechanisms of the biannual peaks of adult abundance, which are important features of midge seasonality in northern Europe and are key determinants of the risk of establishment and spread of midge-borne diseases, have been hypothesised over for many years. Our model suggests that the peaks correspond to two generations per year (bivoltine) are largely determined by pre-adult development. Furthermore, control strategies should focus on reducing the autumn peak since the immature stages are released from density-dependence regulation. We conclude that more extensive modelling of Culicoides biting midge populations in different geographical contexts will help to optimise control strategies and predictions of disease outbreaks.

Bluetongue: control, surveillance and safe movement of animals

The performance of different bluetongue control measures related to both vaccination and protection from bluetongue virus (BTV) vectors was assessed. By means of a mathematical model, it was concluded that when vaccination is applied on 95% of animals even for 3 years, bluetongue cannot be eradicated and is able to re‐emerge. Only after 5 years of vaccination, the infection may be close to the eradication levels. In the absence of vaccination, the disease can persist for several years, reaching an endemic condition with low level of prevalence of infection. Among the mechanisms for bluetongue persistence, the persistence in the wildlife, the transplacental transmission in the host, the duration of viraemia and the possible vertical transmission in vectors were assessed. The criteria of the current surveillance scheme in place in the EU for demonstration of the virus absence need revision, because it was highlighted that under the current surveillance policy bluetongue circulation might occur undetected. For the safe movement of animals, newborn ruminants from vaccinated mothers with neutralising antibodies can be considered protected against infection, although a protective titre threshold cannot be identified. The presence of colostral antibodies interferes with the vaccine immunisation in the newborn for more than 3 months after birth, whereas the minimum time after vaccination of animal to be considered immune can be up to 48 days. The knowledge about vectors ecology, mechanisms of over‐wintering and criteria for the seasonally vector‐free period was updated. Some Culicoides species are active throughout the year and an absolute vector‐free period may not exist at least in some areas in Europe. To date, there is no evidence that the use of insecticides and repellents reduce the transmission of BTV in the field, although this may reduce host/vector contact. By only using pour‐on insecticides, protection of animals is lower than the one provided by vector‐proof establishments.

This publication is linked to the following EFSA Supporting Publications article: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.2903/sp.efsa.2017.EN-1182/full, http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.2903/sp.efsa.2017.EN-1171/full

Spatial and temporal distribution of Culicoides species in mainland Portugal (2005-2010). Results of the Portuguese Entomological Surveillance Programme

Bluetongue virus (BTV) is transmitted by Culicoides biting midges and causes an infectious, non-contagious disease of ruminants. It has been rapidly emerging in southern Europe since 1998. In mainland Portugal, strains of BTV belonging to three serotypes have been detected: BTV-10 (1956-1960), BTV-4 (2004-2006 and 2013) and BTV-1 (2007-2012). This paper describes the design, implementation and results of the Entomological Surveillance Programme covering mainland Portugal, between 2005 and 2010, including 5,650 caches. Culicoides imicola Kieffer was mostly found in central and southern regions of Portugal, although it was sporadically detected in northern latitudes. Its peak activity occurred in the autumn and it was active during the winter months in limited areas of the country. Obsoletus group was present at the highest densities in the north although they were found throughout the country in substantial numbers. Culicoides activity occurred all year round but peaked in the spring. A generalized linear mixed model was developed for the analysis of the environmental factors associated with activity of the species of Culicoides suspected vectors of BTV in the country. For C. imicola Kieffer, the most important variables were month, diurnal temperature range (DTR), the number of frost days (FRS) and median monthly temperature (TMP). For the Obsoletus group, the most important factors were month, diurnal temperature range (DTR), and linear and quadratic terms for median monthly temperature (TMP). The results reported can improve our understanding of climatic factors in Culicoides activity influencing their distribution and seasonal pattern.

Topsoil conditions correlate with the emergence rates of Culicoides chiopterus and Culicoides dewulfi (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) from cowpats

Culicoides chiopterus (Meigen), 1830 and Culicoides dewulfi Goetghebuer, 1936 (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) are considered to develop exclusively in dung, but do not necessarily show an equal distribution and abundance on livestock farms in Northern Europe. Recent modelling studies identified soil parameters to explain these differences. The present study addressed the question whether topsoil conditions underneath cowpats correlate with the number of emerging C. chiopterus and C. dewulfi. We recorded the emergence of biting midges from 24 cowpats over a period of 4 weeks and analysed samples from the topsoil. In agreement with species distribution models based on remote data, our results detected the correlation of soil moisture, organic matter and soil texture with the number of emerging C. chiopterus and C. dewulfi. With increasing soil moisture, the number of emerging adults increased for both species and the amount of organic matter was positively correlated with the number of emerging C. chiopterus. In contrast, soil textures showed conflicting results, i.e. a positive and negative relationship with the same variables. According to our results, soil underneath dung can explain the number of emerging Culicoides species. The knowledge of these effects might improve the interpretation of large-scaled distribution models for dung-breeding biting midges.

A look into the Medical and Veterinary Entomology crystal ball

Medical and Veterinary Entomology (MVE) represents a leading periodical in its field and covers many aspects of the biology and control of insects, ticks, mites and other arthropods of medical and veterinary importance. Since the first issue of the journal, researchers working in both developed and developing countries have published in MVE, with direct impact on current knowledge in the field. An increasing number of articles dealing with the epidemiology and transmission of vector-borne pathogens have been published in MVE, reflecting rapid changes in vector distribution, pathogen transmission and host-arthropod interactions. This article represents a gaze into the crystal ball in which we identify areas of increasing interest, discuss the main changes that have occurred in the epidemiology of parasitic arthropods since the first issue of MVE, and predict the principal scientific topics that might arise in the next 25 years for scientists working in medical and veterinary entomology.

Distribution of Culicoides sonorensis (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) in Alberta, Canada

The distribution of Culicoides sonorensis Wirth and Jones was examined in Alberta, Canada. Sampling was conducted weekly using blacklight traps at eight locations in 2009, and 10 locations during 2010-2012. Nine supplemental sites were sampled twice annually during both 2011 and 2012. Abundance of C. sonorensis was consistently greatest at a site near the U.S. border, and declined in a northerly direction. Mean annual abundance at this site ranged from 6.4- to > 1,000-fold greater across positive sites. Data from a less extensive survey conducted during 2002-2006 were included in the remaining analyses. C. sonorensis was distributed below a diagonal spanning 49 degrees 30' N, 113 degrees 0' W to 51 degrees 21' N, 110 degrees 40' W. The relationship between the proportion of weekly samples positive and mean annual abundance at a site was determined and indicated that the proportion of positive samples could be used as a surrogate measure of abundance to overcome issues associated with the extreme variation in abundance. A series of logistic regression models were developed and evaluated to determine the effects of spatial (latitude and longitude), climatic (historic temperature and precipitation during the warmest quarter), and weather (temperature during the sample interval and spring precipitation) on abundance as measured by the proportion of positive samples. Spatial and climatic variables set the overall level of abundance, while weather variables added seasonal fluctuations within years, and also fluctuations between years. These data will be useful for long-term monitoring of C. sonorensis and as a baseline for detecting shifts in abundance that might occur because of climate change.