The ecological implications of intra- and inter-species variation in phenological sensitivity

Cross-continental comparison of plant reproductive phenology shows high intraspecific variation in temperature sensitivity

The success of plant species under climate change will be determined, in part, by their phenological responses to temperature. Despite the growing need to forecast such outcomes across entire species ranges, it remains unclear how phenological sensitivity to temperature might vary across individuals of the same species. In this study, we harnessed community science data to document intraspecific patterns in phenological temperature sensitivity across the multicontinental range of six herbaceous plant species. Using linear models, we correlated georeferenced temperature data with 23 220 plant phenological records from iNaturalist to generate spatially explicit estimates of phenological temperature sensitivity across the shared range of species. We additionally evaluated the geographic association between local historic climate conditions (i.e. mean annual temperature [MAT] and interannual variability in temperature) and the temperature sensitivity of plants. We found that plant temperature sensitivity varied substantially at both the interspecific and intraspecific levels, demonstrating that phenological responses to climate change have the potential to vary both within and among species. Additionally, we provide evidence for a strong geographic association between plant temperature sensitivity and local historic climate conditions. Plants were more sensitive to temperature in hotter climates (i.e. regions with high MAT), but only in regions with high interannual temperature variability. In regions with low interannual temperature variability, plants displayed universally weak sensitivity to temperature, regardless of baseline annual temperature. This evidence suggests that pheno-climatic forecasts may be improved by accounting for intraspecific variation in phenological temperature sensitivity. Broad climatic factors such as MAT and interannual temperature variability likely serve as useful predictors for estimating temperature sensitivity across species' ranges.

Biodiversity conservation in the context of climate change: Facing challenges and management strategies

Biodiversity conservation amidst the uncertainty of climate change presents unique challenges that necessitate precise management strategies. The study reported here was aimed at refining understanding of these challenges and to propose specific, actionable management strategies. Employing a quantitative literature analysis, we meticulously examined 1268 research articles from the Web of Science database between 2005 and 2023. Through Cite Spaces and VOS viewer software, we conducted a bibliometric analysis and thematic synthesis to pinpoint emerging trends, key themes, and the geographical distribution of research efforts. Our methodology involved identifying patterns within the data, such as frequency of keywords, co-authorship networks, and citation analysis, to discern the primary focus areas within the field. This approach allowed us to distinguish between research concentration areas, specifically highlighting a predominant interest in Environmental Sciences Ecology (67.59 %) and Biodiversity Conservation (22.63 %). The identification of adaptive management practices and ecosystem services maintenance are central themes in the research from 2005 to 2023. Moreover, challenges such as understanding phenological shifts, invasive species dynamics, and anthropogenic pressures critically impact biodiversity conservation efforts. Our findings underscore the urgent need for precise, data-driven decision-making processes in the face of these challenges. Addressing the gaps identified, our study proposes targeted solutions, including the establishment of germplasm banks for at-risk species, the development of advanced genomic and microclimate models, and scenario analysis to predict and mitigate future conservation challenges. These strategies are aimed at enhancing the resilience of biodiversity against the backdrop of climate change through integrated, evidence-based approaches. By leveraging the compiled and analyzed data, this study offers a foundational framework for future research and practical action in biodiversity conservation strategies, demonstrating a path forward through detailed analysis and specified solutions.

Plant phenology shifts under climate warming: a systematic review of recent scientific literature

Climate warming-driven temporal shifts in phenology are widely recognised as the foremost footprint of global environmental change. In this regard, concerted research efforts are being made worldwide to monitor and assess the plant phenological responses to climate warming across species, ecosystems and seasons. Here, we present a global synthesis of the recent scientific literature to assess the progress made in this area of research. To achieve this, we conducted a systematic review by following PRISMA protocol, which involved rigorous screening of 9476 studies on the topic and finally selected 215 studies for data extraction. The results revealed that woody species, natural ecosystems and plant phenological responses in spring season have been predominantly studied, with the herbaceous species, agricultural ecosystems and other seasons grossly understudied. Majority of the studies reported phenological advancement (i.e., preponement) in spring, followed by also advancement in summer but delay in autumn. Methodology-wise, nearly two -third of the studies have employed direct observational approach, followed by herbarium-based and experimental approaches, with the latter covering least temporal depth. We found a steady increase in research on the topic over the last decade with a sharp increase since 2014. The global country-wide scientific output map highlights the huge geographical gaps in this area of research, particularly in the biodiversity-rich tropical regions of the developing world. Based on the findings of this global synthesis, we identify the current knowledge gaps and suggest future directions for this emerging area of research in an increasingly warming world.

Interannual variation in spring weather conditions as a driver of spring wildflower coverage: a 15-year perspective from an old-growth temperate forest

Spring ephemerals are wildflowers found in temperate deciduous forests that typically display aboveground shoots for a period of 2 months or less. Early spring, before the canopy leaves out, marks the beginning of the aboveground growth period where ephemerals acquire nutrients and resources via aboveground tissues. Several studies have shown that spring ephemeral reproduction is affected by spring temperature, but few have looked at how weather conditions of the current and previous seasons, including precipitation and temperature, influence aboveground growth. Here, we examine the response of a spring ephemeral community in a temperate hardwood forest to weather conditions during their current and previous growing seasons. For 15 years we estimated percent cover of each species within our community. We highlighted five dominant spring ephemerals within this community: wild leek (Allium tricoccum), cutleaf toothwort (Cardamine concatenata), spring beauty (Claytonia virginica), squirrel corn (Dicentra canadensis) and trout lily (Erythronium americanum). We compared changes in cover on both a community and species level from 1 year to the next with average precipitation and temperature of the year of measurement as well as the year prior. We found precipitation and temperature influence a change in cover at the community and species level, but the strength of that influence varies by species. There were few significant correlations between plant cover in the current year and temperature and precipitation in the 30 days preceding measurement. However, we found significant correlations between plant cover and precipitation and temperature during the previous spring; precipitation and cover change were positively correlated, whereas temperature and cover change were negatively correlated. Overall, cooler, wetter springs lead to an increase in aboveground cover the next year. Learning how individual species within a forest plant community respond to weather conditions is a crucial part of understanding how plant communities will respond to climate change.

Sex-dependent phenological responses to climate vary across species' ranges

Anthropogenic climate change has significantly altered the flowering times (i.e., phenology) of plants worldwide, affecting their reproduction, survival, and interactions. Recent studies utilizing herbarium specimens have uncovered significant intra- and inter-specific variation in flowering phenology and its response to changes in climate but have mostly been limited to animal-pollinated species. Thus, despite their economic and ecological importance, variation in phenological responses to climate remain largely unexplored among and within wind-pollinated dioecious species and across their sexes. Using both herbarium specimens and volunteer observations of cottonwood (Populus) species, we examined how phenological sensitivity to climate varies across species, their ranges, sexes, and phenophases. The timing of flowering varied significantly across and within species, as did their sensitivity to spring temperature. In particular, male flowering generally happened earlier in the season and was more sensitive to warming than female flowering. Further, the onset of flowering was more sensitive to changes in temperature than leaf out. Increased temporal gaps between male and female flowering time and between the first open flower date and leaf out date were predicted for the future under two climate change scenarios. These shifts will impact the efficacy of sexual reproduction and gene flow among species. Our study demonstrates significant inter- and intra-specific variation in phenology and its responses to environmental cues, across species' ranges, phenophases, and sex, in wind-pollinated species. These variations need to be considered to predict accurately the effects of climate change and assess their ecological and evolutionary consequences.

Complex climate-mediated effects of urbanization on plant reproductive phenology and frost risk

Urbanization can affect the timing of plant reproduction (i.e. flowering and fruiting) and associated ecosystem processes. However, our knowledge of how plant phenology responds to urbanization and its associated environmental changes is limited. Herbaria represent an important, but underutilized source of data for investigating this question. We harnessed phenological data from herbarium specimens representing 200 plant species collected across 120 yr from the eastern US to investigate the spatiotemporal effects of urbanization on flowering and fruiting phenology and frost risk (i.e. time between the last frost date and flowering). Effects of urbanization on plant reproductive phenology varied significantly in direction and magnitude across species ranges. Increased urbanization led to earlier flowering in colder and wetter regions and delayed fruiting in regions with wetter spring conditions. Frost risk was elevated with increased urbanization in regions with colder and wetter spring conditions. Our study demonstrates that predictions of phenological change and its associated impacts must account for both climatic and human effects, which are context dependent and do not necessarily coincide. We must move beyond phenological models that only incorporate temperature variables and consider multiple environmental factors and their interactions when estimating plant phenology, especially at larger spatial and taxonomic scales.

The herbarium of the future

The ~400 million specimens deposited across ~3000 herbaria are essential for: (i) understanding where plants have lived in the past, (ii) forecasting where they may live in the future, and (iii) delineating their conservation status. An open access 'global metaherbarium' is emerging as these specimens are digitized, mobilized, and interlinked online. This virtual biodiversity resource is attracting new users who are accelerating traditional applications of herbaria and generating basic and applied scientific innovations, including e-monographs and floras produced by diverse, interdisciplinary, and inclusive teams; robust machine-learning algorithms for species identification and phenotyping; collection and synthesis of ecological trait data at large spatiotemporal and phylogenetic scales; and exhibitions and installations that convey the beauty of plants and the value of herbaria in addressing broader societal issues.