Iterative management of heat early warning systems in a changing climate

Novel Method for Measuring Ambient Heat Exposure-Acute Healthcare Utilization Associations Within a Safety Net: A Retrospective, Longitudinal Study

BACKGROUND

Extreme and inequitable heat exposures cause weather-related deaths. Associations between maximum daily temperature and individual-level healthcare utilization have been inadequately characterized.

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate and compare demographic and clinical associations for an individual's healthcare utilization between high- and low-temperature periods.

DESIGN

Retrospective, 5-year longitudinal study of acute care utilization comparing high-temperature periods (HHP) and low-temperature periods (LHP) defined by local maximum daily temperature. Using duration of observation, cases served as their own controls. Temperature-dependent utilization was reported as unadjusted incident rate ratio (IRR) using Poisson regression and log-transformed variable coefficients. IRRs were adjusted (aIRR) for demographic characteristics, heat-sensitive conditions/diagnoses, and neighborhood heat vulnerability score; false discovery rate p-values were adjusted for multiple comparisons.

SUBJECTS

Patients aged ≥ 4 years visiting Denver Health between 4/10/2016 and 12/31/2020, with ≥ 2 visits over ≥ 365 days.

MAIN MEASURES

Comparison of an individual's acute care visit rates in HHP versus LHP, stratified by demographic characteristics and heat-sensitive clinical conditions.

KEY RESULTS

While acute care utilization occurred at similar or higher rates during LHP compared with HHP, certain groups (i.e., Native Americans and those with congestive heart failure, liver failure, and/or alcohol use) had higher rates of utilization during HHP. Significant associations existed for acute care utilization by age, sex, racial and ethnic groupings, clinical characteristics, and neighborhood heat vulnerability. Adjusting for demographic and environmental covariates, individuals with any heat-sensitive clinical condition had higher HHP vs LHP utilization compared to those without (aIRR = 1.93).

CONCLUSIONS

Significant heat-related utilization occurred among individuals with heat-sensitive clinical conditions compared with those without. Demographic characteristics (e.g., older) and specific clinical conditions (e.g., liver failure) demonstrated higher utilization. In real-time, chronic disease management programs could proactively identify at-risk individuals for interventions which reduce heat-related morbidity and healthcare utilization.

Historical and future heat-related mortality in Portugal's Alentejo region

BACKGROUND

The increased severity of extreme weather and anticipated climate change has intensified heat stress-related mortality worldwide. This study examines the historical short-term effects of heat on mortality in Alentejo, Portugal's warmest region, and projects it up to the end of the century.

METHODS

Using data from 1980 to 2015 during warm seasons (May-September), the association between daily mortality by all-causes and mean temperature was examined following a case time series design, applied at both regional and subregional scales. Projections for daily temperatures were obtained from regional climate models and greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP4.5, RCP8.5). We also examined temporal shifts in mortality considering potential long-term and seasonal adaptative responses to heat. We then quantified the yearly effects of heat by calculating absolute and relative excess mortality from 1980 to 2015, specifically during the heatwave of 2003 (July 27 to August 15), and in future projections at 20-year intervals through 2100.

RESULTS

The analysis revealed a significant rise in mortality risk at temperatures exceeding a minimum mortality temperature (MMT) of 19.0 °C, with an exponential trend and delayed effects lasting up to 5 days. The risk increased by 413% at the maximum extreme temperature of 36.6 °C. From 1980 to 2015, 2.32% of total deaths, equating to over 5,296 deaths, were heat-associated. No significant shifts over time were noted in the population's response to heat. Future projections, without adaptation and demographic changes, show a potential increase in mortality by 15.88% under a "no mitigation policy" scenario by 2100, while mitigation measures could limit the rise to 6.61%.

CONCLUSION

Results underscore the urgent need for protective health policies to reduce regional population vulnerability and prevent premature heat-related deaths across the century.

On adjustment for temperature in heat-wave epidemiology: a new method for estimating the health effects of heat waves

Defining the effect of an exposure of interest and selecting an appropriate estimation method are prerequisites for causal inference. Current understanding of the ways in which an association between heat waves (ie, consecutive days of extremely high temperature) and an outcome depends on whether adjustment was made for temperature and how such adjustment was conducted is limited. In this paper we aim to investigate this dependency, demonstrate that temperature is a confounder in heat-wave-outcome associations, and introduce a new modeling approach with which to estimate a new heat-wave-outcome relationship: E[R(Y)|HW = 1, Z]/E[R(Y)|T = OT, Z], where HW is a daily binary variable used to indicate the presence of a heat wave; R(Y) is the risk of an outcome, Y; T is a temperature variable; OT is optimal temperature; and Z is a set of confounders including typical confounders but also some types of T as a confounder. We recommend characterization of heat-wave-outcome relationships and careful selection of modeling approaches to understand the impacts of heat waves under climate change. We demonstrate our approach using real-world data for Seoul, South Korea. Our demonstration suggests that the total effect of heat waves may be larger than what may be inferred from the extant literature. An R package, HEAT, has been developed and made publicly available. This article is part of a Special Collection on Environmental Epidemiology.

Survey of extreme heat public health preparedness plans and response activities in the most populous jurisdictions in the United States

BACKGROUND

Increasingly frequent and intense extreme heat events (EHEs) are indicative of climate change impacts, and urban areas' social and built environments increase their risk for health consequences. Heat action plans (HAPs) are a strategy to bolster municipal EHE preparedness. The objective of this research is to characterize municipal interventions to EHEs and compare U.S. jurisdictions with and without formal heat action plans.

METHODS

An online survey was sent to 99 U.S. jurisdictions with populations > 200,000 between September 2021 and January 2022. Summary statistics were calculated to describe the proportion of total jurisdictions, as well as jurisdictions with and without HAPs and in different geographies that reported engagement in extreme heat preparedness and response activities.

RESULTS

Thirty-eight (38.4%) jurisdictions responded to the survey. Of those respondents, twenty-three (60.5%) reported the development of a HAP, of which 22 (95.7%) reported plans for opening cooling centers. All respondents reported conducting heat-related risk communications; however, communication approaches focused on passive, technology-dependent mechanisms. While 75.7% of jurisdictions reported having developed a definition for an EHE, less than two-thirds of responding jurisdictions reported any of the following activities: conducting heat-related surveillance (61.1%), implementing provisions for power outages (53.1%), increasing access to fans or air conditioners (48.4%), developing heat vulnerability maps (43.2%), or evaluating activities (34.2%). There were only two statistically significant (p ≥ .05) differences in the prevalence of heat-related activities between jurisdictions with and without a written HAP, possibly attributable to a relatively small sample size: surveillance and having a definition of extreme heat.

CONCLUSIONS

Jurisdictions can strengthen their extreme heat preparedness by expanding their consideration of at-risk populations to include communities of color, conducting formal evaluations of their responses, and by bridging the gap between the populations determined to be most at-risk and the channels of communication designed to reach them.

Association of Temperature Thresholds with Heat Illness- and Cardiorespiratory-Related Emergency Visits during Summer Months in Alaska

BACKGROUND

Recent record-breaking hot temperatures in Alaska have raised concerns about the potential human health implications of heat exposure among this unacclimated population.

OBJECTIVES

We estimated cardiorespiratory morbidity associated with days above summer (June-August) heat index (HI, apparent temperature) thresholds in three major population centers (Anchorage, Fairbanks, and the Matanuska-Susitna Valley) for the years 2015-2019.

METHODS

We implemented time-stratified case-crossover analyses of emergency department (ED) visits for International Classification of Diseases, 10^th Revision codes indicative of heat illness and major cardiorespiratory diagnostic codes using data from the Alaska Health Facilities Data Reporting Program. Using conditional logistic regression models, we tested maximum hourly HI temperature thresholds between 21.1°C (70°F) and 30°C (86°F) for a single day, 2 consecutive days, and the absolute number of previous consecutive days above the threshold, adjusting for the daily average concentration of particulate matter ≤2.5μg.

RESULTS

There were increased odds of ED visits for heat illness above a HI threshold as low as 21.1°C (70°F) [odds ratio (OR)=13.84; 95% confidence interval (CI): 4.05, 47.29], and this increased risk continued for up to 4 d (OR=2.43; 95% CI: 1.15, 5.10). Asthma and pneumonia were the only respiratory outcomes positively associated with the HI: ED visits for both were highest the day after a heat event (Asthma: HI>27°C(80°F) OR=1.18; 95% CI: 1.00, 1.39; Pneumonia: HI>28°C(82°F) OR=1.40; 95% CI: 1.06, 1.84). There was a decreased odds of bronchitis-related ED visits when the HI was above thresholds of 21.1-28°C (70-82°F) across all lag days. We found stronger effects for ischemia and myocardial infarction (MI) than for respiratory outcomes. Multiple days of warm weather were associated with an increased risk of health impacts. For each additional preceding day above a HI of 22°C (72°F), the odds of ED visits related to ischemia increased 6% (95% CI: 1%, 12%); for each additional preceding day above a HI of 21.1°C (70°F), the odds of ED visits related to MI increased 7% (95% CI: 1%, 14%).

DISCUSSION

This study demonstrates the importance of planning for extreme heat events and developing local guidance for heat warnings, even in areas with historically mild summertime climates. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP11363.

Human Health and Well-being in a Warming World

Policy Points After decades of scientific progress and growth in academic literature, there is a recognition that climate change poses a substantial threat to the health and well-being of individuals and communities both in the United States and globally. Solutions to mitigate and adapt to climate change can have important health cobenefits. A vital component of these policy solutions is that they must also take into consideration historic issues of environmental justice and racism, and implementation of these policies must have a strong equity lens.

Nationwide Analysis of the Heat- and Cold-Related Mortality Trends in Switzerland between 1969 and 2017: The Role of Population Aging

BACKGROUND

Because older adults are particularly vulnerable to nonoptimal temperatures, it is expected that the progressive population aging will amplify the health burden attributable to heat and cold due to climate change in future decades. However, limited evidence exists on the contribution of population aging on historical temperature-mortality trends.

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to a) assess trends in heat- and cold-related mortality in Switzerland between 1969 and 2017 and b) to quantify the contribution of population aging to the observed patterns.

METHODS

We collected daily time series of all-cause mortality by age group (<65, 65-79, and 80 y and older) and mean temperature for each Swiss municipality (1969-2017). We performed a two-stage time-series analysis with distributed lag nonlinear models and multivariate longitudinal meta-regression to obtain temperature-mortality associations by canton, decade, and age group. We then calculated the corresponding excess mortality attributable to nonoptimal temperatures and compared it to the estimates obtained in a hypothetical scenario of no population aging.

RESULTS

Between 1969 and 2017, heat- and cold-related mortality represented 0.28% [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.18, 0.37] and 8.91% (95% CI: 7.46, 10.21) of total mortality, which corresponded to 2.4 and 77 deaths per 100,000 people annually, respectively. Although mortality rates for heat slightly increased over time, annual number of deaths substantially raised up from 74 (12;125) to 181 (39;307) between 1969-78 and 2009-17, mostly driven by the ≥80-y-old age group. Cold-related mortality rates decreased across all ages, but annual cold-related deaths still increased among the ≥80, due to the increase in the population at risk. We estimated that heat- and cold-related deaths would have been 52.7% and 44.6% lower, respectively, in the most recent decade in the absence of population aging.

DISCUSSION

Our findings suggest that a substantial proportion of historical temperature-related impacts can be attributed to population aging. We found that population aging has attenuated the decrease in cold-related mortality and amplified heat-related mortality. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP9835.

Reducing the health effects of hot weather and heat extremes: from personal cooling strategies to green cities

Heat extremes (ie, heatwaves) already have a serious impact on human health, with ageing, poverty, and chronic illnesses as aggravating factors. As the global community seeks to contend with even hotter weather in the future as a consequence of global climate change, there is a pressing need to better understand the most effective prevention and response measures that can be implemented, particularly in low-resource settings. In this Series paper, we describe how a future reliance on air conditioning is unsustainable and further marginalises the communities most vulnerable to the heat. We then show that a more holistic understanding of the thermal environment at the landscape and urban, building, and individual scales supports the identification of numerous sustainable opportunities to keep people cooler. We summarise the benefits (eg, effectiveness) and limitations of each identified cooling strategy, and recommend optimal interventions for settings such as aged care homes, slums, workplaces, mass gatherings, refugee camps, and playing sport. The integration of this information into well communicated heat action plans with robust surveillance and monitoring is essential for reducing the adverse health consequences of current and future extreme heat.

Modelling of Temperature-Attributable Mortality among the Elderly in Lisbon Metropolitan Area, Portugal: A Contribution to Local Strategy for Effective Prevention Plans

Epidemiological studies on the impact of determining environmental factors on human health have proved that temperature extremes and variability constitute mortality risk factors. However, few studies focus specifically on susceptible individuals living in Portuguese urban areas. This study aimed to estimate and assess the health burden of temperature-attributable mortality among age groups (0-64 years; 65-74 years; 75-84 years; and 85+ years) in Lisbon Metropolitan Area, from 1986-2015. Non-linear and delayed exposure-lag-response relationships between temperature and mortality were fitted with a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM). In general, the adverse effects of cold and hot temperatures on mortality were greater in the older age groups, presenting a higher risk during the winter season. We found that, for all ages, 10.7% (95% CI: 9.3-12.1%) deaths were attributed to cold temperatures in the winter, and mostly due to moderately cold temperatures, 7.0% (95% CI: 6.2-7.8%), against extremely cold temperatures, 1.4% (95% CI: 0.9-1.8%). When stratified by age, people aged 85+ years were more burdened by cold temperatures (13.8%, 95% CI: 11.5-16.0%). However, for all ages, 5.6% of deaths (95% CI: 2.7-8.4%) can be attributed to hot temperatures. It was observed that the proportion of deaths attributed to exposure to extreme heat is higher than moderate heat. As with cold temperatures, people aged 85+ years are the most vulnerable age group to heat, 8.4% (95% CI: 3.9%, 2.7%), and mostly due to extreme heat, 1.3% (95% CI: 0.8-1.8%). These results provide new evidence on the health burdens associated with alert thresholds, and they can be used in early warning systems and adaptation plans.

Extreme Weather and Climate Change: Population Health and Health System Implications

Extreme weather and climate events, such as heat waves, cyclones, and floods, are an expression of climate variability. These events and events influenced by climate change, such as wildfires, continue to cause significant human morbidity and mortality and adversely affect mental health and well-being. Although adverse health impacts from extreme events declined over the past few decades, climate change and more people moving into harm's way could alter this trend. Long-term changes to Earth's energy balance are increasing the frequency and intensity of many extreme events and the probability of compound events, with trends projected to accelerate under certain greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. While most of these events cannot be completely avoided, many of the health risks could be prevented through building climate-resilient health systems with improved risk reduction, preparation, response, and recovery. Conducting vulnerability and adaptation assessments and developing health system adaptation plans can identify priority actions to effectively reduce risks, such as disaster risk management and more resilient infrastructure. The risks are urgent, so action is needed now.

Health Risks Due To Climate Change: Inequity In Causes And Consequences

Climate change has altered global to local weather patterns and increased sea levels, and it will continue to do so. Average temperatures, precipitation amounts, and other variables such as humidity levels are all rising. In addition, weather variability is increasing, causing, for example, a greater number of heat waves, many of which are more intense and last longer, and more floods and droughts. These changes are collectively increasing the number of injuries, illnesses, and deaths from a wide range of climate-sensitive health outcomes. Future health risks will be determined not just by the hazards created by a changing climate but also by the sensitivity of individuals and communities exposed to these hazards and the capacity of health systems to prepare for and effectively manage the attendant risks. These risks include deaths and injuries from extreme events (for example, heat waves, storms, and floods), infectious diseases (including food-, water-, and vectorborne illnesses), and food and water insecurity. These risks are unevenly distributed and both create new inequities and exacerbate those that already exist. Most of these risks are projected to increase with each additional unit of warming. Using an equity lens to move beyond incremental to transformational resilience would reduce vulnerability and improve sustainability for all, but substantial additional funding is required for proactive and effective actions by the health system.

Using Implementation Science For Health Adaptation: Opportunities For Pacific Island Countries

The health risks of a changing climate are immediate and multifaceted. Policies, plans, and programs to reduce climate-related health impacts exist, but multiple barriers hinder the uptake of these strategies, and information remains limited on the factors affecting implementation. Implementation science-a discipline focused on systematically examining the gap between knowledge and action-can address questions related to implementation and help the health sector scale up successful adaptation measures in response to climate change. Implementation science, in the context of a changing climate, can guide decision makers in introducing and prioritizing potential health adaptation and disaster risk management solutions, advancing sustainability initiatives, and evaluating and improving intervention strategies. In this article we highlight examples from Pacific Island countries and outline approaches based on implementation science to enhance the capacity of health systems to anticipate, prepare for, respond to, and recover from climate-related exposures.

Simplicity lacks robustness when projecting heat-health outcomes in a changing climate

Extreme heat adversely affects human health, productivity, and well-being, with more frequent and intense heatwaves projected to increase exposures. However, current risk projections oversimplify critical inter-individual factors of human thermoregulation, resulting in unreliable and unrealistic estimates of future adverse health outcomes.

Review of Biometeorology of Heatwaves and Warm Extremes in Europe

Numerous extreme heatwaves producing large impacts on human health, agriculture, water resources, energy demand, regional economies, and forest ecosystems occurred during the first twenty years of the 21st century. The present study strives to provide a systematic review of recent studies of warm biometeorological extremes in Europe. The main aim of this paper is to provide a methodical summary of the observed changes in warm extremes, duration, and variability in different parts of Europe. During the last decade, much attention has been paid to the negative impacts of heat and humidity on human health. Therefore, the human biometeorology is required to appraise the human thermal environment in a way that human thermoregulation is taken into account. In many European countries and regions, future heat exposure will indeed exceed critical levels, and a steep increase in biometeorological heatwaves and warm extremes are expected. The indices that take into account human energy balance along with weather conditions should be used to examine the impacts of extreme heatwaves on human health and should be used as a basis for the determination of acclimatization to high-heat-stress conditions. A detailed description of recent studies that have used biometeorological indices such as Physiological Equivalent Temperature (PET) and Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI) for the estimation of warm extremes and their influence on human health is provided. Additionally, a short overview of the existence of the heat-health warning systems (HHWS), their conceptualization, and implementation across the European continent is considered, as well as the possibilities for further investigations and implementation of effective measures and programs that could reduce the adverse health impacts.

Modelling climate change impacts on attributable-related deaths and demographic changes in the largest metropolitan area in Portugal: A time-series analysis

Previous studies have consistently analyzed the impact that extreme temperatures will have on human health. However, there are very few data on temperature-related mortality burden considering future demographic changes in a context of climate change in Portugal. This study aims to quantify the impact of climate change on heat-, cold-, and net change mortality burdens, taking into account the future demographic changes in Lisbon Metropolitan Area, Portugal. We applied a time-series generalized linear model with a quasi-Poisson model via a distributed lag nonlinear model to project temperature-related mortality burden for two climatological scenarios: a present (or reference, 1986-2005) scenario and a future scenario (2046-2065), in this case the Representative Concentration Pathway RCP8.5, which reflects the worst set of expectations (with the most onerous impacts). The results show that the total attributable fraction due to temperature, extreme and moderate cold, is statistically significant in the historical period and the future projected scenarios, while extreme and moderate heat were only significant in the projected future summer period. Net differences were attributed to moderate cold in the future winter months. Projections show a consistent and significant increase in future heat-related mortality burden. The attributable fraction due to heat in the future period, compared to the historical period, ranges from 0 to 1.5% for moderate heat and from 0 to 0.5% for extreme heat. Adaptation should be implemented at the local level, so as to prevent and diminish the effects on citizens and healthcare services, in a context of climate change.

Cause of death variation under the shared socioeconomic pathways

Climate change will create numerous risks for human health, including impacts associated with temperature extremes, diarrheal diseases, and undernutrition. Such risks, along with other socioeconomic and development trends, will affect cause-of-death patterns experienced in the coming decades. This study explores future mortality trends using the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP) framework, a widely utilized tool for understanding socioeconomic development trends in a world with climate change. Existing projections for GDP, urbanization, and demographic trends based on SSP narratives are incorporated into an integrated assessment model, International Futures (IFs), in order to project mortality levels by cause of death for all countries from 2020 to 2100. Under more optimistic SSPs, non-communicable diseases (NCDs) rise as a proportion of all deaths, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, while more pessimistic SSPs suggest a continued high burden of largely preventable communicable diseases. In high-income countries, significant continued burdens of NCDs are projected for the remainder of the century under all SSPs. Comparisons are also made to recent cause-of-death projections from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) to assess how the IFs and IHME models vary.

Identifying predictors of personal exposure to air temperature in peri-urban India

Characterizing personal exposure to air temperature is critical to understanding exposure measurement error in epidemiologic studies using fixed-site exposure data and to identify strategies to protect public health. To date, no study evaluating personal air temperature in the general population has been conducted in a low-and-middle income country. We used data from the CHAI study consisting of 50 adults monitored in up to six non-consecutive 24 h sessions in peri-urban south India. We quantified the agreement and association between fixed-site ambient and personal air temperature, and identified predictors of personal air temperature based on housing assessment, self-reported, GPS, remote sensing, and wearable camera data. Mean (SD) daytime (6 am-10 pm) average personal air temperature was 31.2 (2.6) °C and mean nighttime (10 pm-6 am) average temperature was 28.8 (2.8) °C. Agreement between average personal air and fixed-site ambient temperatures was limited, especially at night when personal air temperatures were underestimated by fixed-site temperatures (MBE = -5.6 °C). The proportion of average personal nighttime temperature variability explained by ambient fixed-site temperatures was moderate (R²_mar = 0.39); daytime associations were stronger for women (R²_mar = 0.51) than for men (R²_mar = 0.3). Other predictors of average nighttime personal air temperature included residential altitude, ceiling height, and household income. Predictors of average daytime personal air temperature included roof materials, GPS-tracked altitude, time working in agriculture (for women), and time travelling (for men). No biomass cooking, urban heat island, or greenspace effects were identified. R²_mar between ambient fixed-site and personal air temperature indicate that ambient fixed-site temperature is only a moderately useful proxy of personal air temperature in the context of peri-urban India. Our findings suggest that people living in houses at lower altitude, with lower ceiling height and asbestos roofing sheets might be more vulnerable to heat. We also identified households with higher income, women working in agriculture and men with long commutes as disproportionately exposed to high temperatures.

Impacts of climate change on the public health of the Mediterranean Basin population - Current situation, projections, preparedness and adaptation

The Mediterranean Basin is undergoing a warming trend with longer and warmer summers, an increase in the frequency and the severity of heat waves, changes in precipitation patterns and a reduction in rainfall amounts. In this unique populated region, which is characterized by significant gaps in the socio-economic levels particularly between the North (Europe) and South (Africa), parallel with population growth and migration, increased water demand and forest fires risk - the vulnerability of the Mediterranean population to human health risks increases significantly. Indeed, climatic changes impact the health of the Mediterranean population directly through extreme heat, drought or storms, or indirectly by changes in water availability, food provision and quality, air pollution and other stressors. The main health effects are related to extreme weather events (including extreme temperatures and floods), changes in the distribution of climate-sensitive diseases and changes in environmental and social conditions. The poorer countries, particularly in North Africa and the Levant, are at highest risk. Climate change affects the vulnerable sectors of the region, including an increasingly older population, with a larger percentage of those with chronic diseases, as well as poor people, which are therefore more susceptible to the effects of extreme temperatures. For those populations, a better surveillance and control systems are especially needed. In view of the climatic projections and the vulnerability of Mediterranean countries, climate change mitigation and adaptation become ever more imperative. It is important that prevention Health Action Plans will be implemented, particularly in those countries that currently have no prevention plans. Most adaptation measures are "win-win situation" from a health perspective, including reducing air pollution or providing shading solutions. Additionally, Mediterranean countries need to enhance cross-border collaboration, as adaptation to many of the health risks requires collaboration across borders and also across the different parts of the basin.

Integrating Public Health into Climate Change Policy and Planning: State of Practice Update

Policy action in the coming decade will be crucial to achieving globally agreed upon goals to decarbonize the economy and build resilience to a warmer, more extreme climate. Public health has an essential role in climate planning and action: “Co-benefits” to health help underpin greenhouse gas reduction strategies, while safeguarding health—particularly of the most vulnerable—is a frontline local adaptation goal. Using the structure of the core functions and essential services (CFES), we reviewed the literature documenting the evolution of public health’s role in climate change action since the 2009 launch of the US CDC Climate and Health Program. We found that the public health response to climate change has been promising in the area of assessment (monitoring climate hazards, diagnosing health status, assessing vulnerability); mixed in the area of policy development (mobilizing partnerships, mitigation and adaptation activities); and relatively weak in assurance (communication, workforce development and evaluation). We suggest that the CFES model remains important, but is not aligned with three concepts—governance, implementation and adjustment—that have taken on increasing importance. Adding these concepts to the model can help ensure that public health fulfills its potential as a proactive partner fully integrated into climate policy planning and action in the coming decade.

Assessment of extreme heat and hospitalizations to inform early warning systems

Heat early warning systems and action plans use temperature thresholds to trigger warnings and risk communication. In this study, we conduct multistate analyses, exploring associations between heat and all-cause and cause-specific hospitalizations, to inform the design and development of heat-health early warning systems. We used a two-stage analysis to estimate heat-health risk relationships between heat index and hospitalizations in 1,617 counties in the United States for 2003-2012. The first stage involved a county-level time series quasi-Poisson regression, using a distributed lag nonlinear model, to estimate heat-health associations. The second stage involved a multivariate random-effects meta-analysis to pool county-specific exposure-response associations across larger geographic scales, such as by state or climate region. Using results from this two-stage analysis, we identified heat index ranges that correspond with significant heat-attributable burden. We then compared those with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Weather Service (NWS) heat alert criteria used during the same time period. Associations between heat index and cause-specific hospitalizations vary widely by geography and health outcome. Heat-attributable burden starts to occur at moderately hot heat index values, which in some regions are below the alert ranges used by the NWS during the study time period. Locally specific health evidence can beneficially inform and calibrate heat alert criteria. A synchronization of health findings with traditional weather forecasting efforts could be critical in the development of effective heat-health early warning systems.

Assessing heatwave impacts on cause-specific emergency department visits in urban and rural communities of Queensland, Australia

BACKGROUND

Heatwave impact on morbidity of people in rural areas has rarely been assessed in prior studies, and recently published literature has documented heatwave impact on a wide spectrum of diseases, for example, ear and eye diseases.

OBJECTIVES

To examine the associations between heatwaves and cause-specific emergency department visits (EDVs) across eight communities in both urban and rural regions throughout Queensland, Australia.

METHODS

Daily data on EDVs, air pollution and climatic conditions during the 1st January 2013 to the 31st December 2015 were obtained from relevant government agencies. Heatwave was defined as ≥ 95th percentile of the mean temperature for three or more consecutive days in each community. A quasi-Poisson generalized additive model with a distributed lag non-linear model was used to assess the heatwave impacts on EDVs. Random effect meta-analysis was performed to investigate the effects of heatwaves on cause-specific EDVs across the urban and rural regions as well as the whole Queensland. The causes of EDVs investigated in this study were infectious and parasitic diseases (ICD code: A00-B99), endocrine, nutritional and metabolic diseases (E00-E90), mental and behavioural disorders (F00-F99), diseases of the nervous system (G00-G99), diseases of the ear and mastoid process (H60-H95), diseases of the circulatory system (I00-I99), diseases of the respiratory system (J00-J99), diseases of the skin and subcutaneous tissue (L00-L99), diseases of the musculoskeletal system and connective tissue (M00-M99), diseases of the genitourinary system (N00-N99), and injury, poisoning and certain other consequences of external causes (S00-T98).

RESULTS

The meta-analysis results showed that there were significant effects of heatwaves on total EDVs and a wide-spectrum of cause-specific EDVs. For example, EDVs for endocrine, nutritional and metabolic diseases (RR: 1.18, 95% CI: 1.04-1.34), diseases of the nervous system (RR: 1.09, 95% CI: 1.02-1.17), and diseases of the genitourinary system (RR: 1.05, 95% CI: 1.00-1.09) increased substantially during heatwave days. The effect of heatwaves on total EDVs was similar for rural (RR: 1.04, 95% CI: 1.01-1.07) and urban regions (RR: 1.04, 95% CI: 1.00-1.07).

CONCLUSIONS

A wide range of diseases were sensitive to heatwave impacts. Residents in urban and rural areas were all vulnerable to heatwave impacts, calling for heat adaptation measures to be undertaken in Queensland, Australia.

Towards Improved Linkage of Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation in Health: A Review

Climate change and climate-sensitive disasters significantly impact health. Linking Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) and Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) is essential for addressing these ever present, complex and increasing risks. Recent calls have been made to build these links in health. However, there is a need to clearly articulate why linking DRR and CCA is important in health. Furthermore, little is known about how DRR and CCA should be linked in health. By extensively examining relevant literature, this review presents the current state of knowledge of linking DRR and CCA in health. This includes the potential for maximising conceptual synergies such as building resilience, and reducing vulnerability and risk. Additionally, technical and operational synergies are identified to link DRR and CCA in health, including: policy, Early Warning Systems, vulnerability and risk assessment, health systems strengthening, infrastructure resilience, disaster preparedness and response, and health impact pathways. Public health actors have a central role in building these links due to their expertise, work functions, and experience in addressing complex health risks. The review concludes with recommendations for future research, including how to better link DRR and CCA in health; and the opportunities, challenges and enablers to build and sustain these links.

Climate Change and Health under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway Framework

A growing body of literature addresses how climate change is likely to have substantial and generally adverse effects on population health and health systems around the world. These effects are likely to vary within and between countries and, importantly, will vary depending on different socioeconomic development patterns. Transitioning to a more resilient and sustainable world to prepare for and manage the effects of climate change is likely to result in better health outcomes. Sustained fossil fuel development will likely result in continued high burdens of preventable conditions, such as undernutrition, malaria, and diarrheal diseases. Using a new set of socioeconomic development trajectories, the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), along with the World Health Organization’s Operational Framework for Building Climate Resilient Health Systems, we extend existing storylines to illustrate how various aspects of health systems are likely to be affected under each SSP. We also discuss the implications of our findings on how the burden of mortality and the achievement of health-related Sustainable Development Goal targets are likely to vary under different SSPs.

Characterizing prolonged heat effects on mortality in a sub-tropical high-density city, Hong Kong

Extreme hot weather events are likely to increase under future climate change, and it is exacerbated in urban areas due to the complex urban settings. It causes excess mortality due to prolonged exposure to such extreme heat. However, there is lack of universal definition of prolonged heat or heat wave, which leads to inadequacies of associated risk preparedness. Previous studies focused on estimating temperature-mortality relationship based on temperature thresholds for assessing heat-related health risks but only several studies investigated the association between types of prolonged heat and excess mortality. However, most studies focused on one or a few isolated heat waves, which cannot demonstrate typical scenarios that population has experienced. In addition, there are limited studies on the difference between daytime and nighttime temperature, resulting in insufficiency to conclude the effect of prolonged heat. In sub-tropical high-density cities where prolonged heat is common in summer, it is important to obtain a comprehensive understanding of prolonged heat for a complete assessment of heat-related health risks. In this study, six types of prolonged heat were examined by using a time-stratified analysis. We found that more consecutive hot nights contribute to higher mortality risk while the number of consecutive hot days does not have significant association with excess mortality. For a day after five consecutive hot nights, there were 7.99% [7.64%, 8.35%], 7.74% [6.93%, 8.55%], and 8.14% [7.38%, 8.88%] increases in all-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality, respectively. Non-consecutive hot days or nights are also found to contribute to short-term mortality risk. For a 7-day-period with at least five non-consecutive hot days and nights, there was 15.61% [14.52%, 16.70%] increase in all-cause mortality at lag 0-1, but only -2.00% [-2.83%, -1.17%] at lag 2-3. Differences in the temperature-mortality relationship caused by hot days and hot nights imply the need to categorize prolonged heat for public health surveillance. Findings also contribute to potential improvement to existing heat-health warning system.

Integrating Health into Local Climate Response: Lessons from the U.S. CDC Climate-Ready States and Cities Initiative

Public health has potential to serve as a frame to convey the urgency of behavior change needed to adapt to a changing climate and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Local governments form the backbone of climate-related public health preparedness. Yet local health agencies are often inadequately prepared and poorly integrated into climate change assessments and plans. We reviewed the climate health profiles of 16 states and two cities participating in the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)'s Climate-Ready States and Cities Initiative (CRSCI) that aims to build local capacity to assess and respond to the health impacts of climate change. Following recommendations from a recent expert panel strategic review, we present illustrations of emerging promising practice and future directions. We found that CRSCI has strengthened climate preparedness and response in local public health agencies by identifying critical climate-health impacts and vulnerable populations, and has helped integrate health more fully into broader climate planning. Promising practice was found in all three recommendation areas identified by the expert panel (leveraging partnerships, refining assessment methodologies and enhancing communications), particularly with regard to health impacts of extreme heat. Vast needs remain, however, suggesting the need to disseminate CRSCI experience to non-grantees. In conclusion, the CRSCI program approach and selected activities illustrate a way forward toward robust, targeted local preparedness and response that may serve as a useful example for public health departments in the United States and internationally, particularly at a time of uncertain commitment to climate change agreements at the national level. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP1838.

The past and future in understanding the health risks of and responses to climate variability and change

Climate change and health was established as a formal field of endeavor in the early 1990s, with the number of publications increasing since the mid-2000s. The key findings in assessment reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 1995, 2001, 2007, and 2014 indicate the progress in understanding the magnitude and pattern of the health risks of a changing climate. The assessments maintained a similar structure, focusing on assessing the state of knowledge of individual climate-sensitive health outcomes, with confidence in the key findings tending to increase over time with greater understanding. The knowledge base is smaller than for other key sectors (e.g., agriculture) because of limited research investment in climate change and health. Vulnerability, adaptation, and capacity assessments can inform prioritization of the significant research gaps in understanding and managing the health risks of a changing climate; filling these research gaps would provide policy- and decision-makers with insights to increase short- and longer-term resilience in health and other sectors. Research needs include to understand how climate and development pathways could interact to alter health risks over time, better understand upstream drivers of climate-sensitive health outcomes, project aggregate health impacts to understand the breadth and depth of challenges that may need to be managed at geographic scales of interest, and project the time of emergence of changes in the geographic range and intensity of transmission of infectious diseases and other climate conditions. Engagement with other sectors is needed to ensure that their mitigation and adaptation activities also promote and protect health and take the health sector's needs into account. Making progress in these areas is critical for protecting the health of future populations.