Density dependence and microevolution interactively determine effects of phenology mismatch on population dynamics

Negative density-dependence buffers against mismatch-induced population decline in the Sinai baton blue butterfly

Phenological mismatches caused by climate change pose a major threat to global biodiversity, yet relatively few studies have reported population declines resulting from mismatch. It has been hypothesised that density effects may underlie this lack of observed responses by buffering against mismatch-induced population decline. We developed an individual-based model of the critically endangered Sinai baton blue butterfly (Pseudophilotes sinaicus) and its hostplant Sinai thyme (Thymus decussatus), parameterised using real field data, to test this hypothesis. Our model showed that the baton blue experiences demographic consequences under only 5 days of phenological mismatch, but that this threshold was increased to 14 days with the inclusion of density-dependent juvenile mortality. The inclusion of density effects also led to the replication of population cycles observed in nature, supporting the ability of our model to accurately represent the baton blue's ecology. These results add to a growing body of literature suggesting that density effects may underlie the observed lack of demographic responses to mismatch in wild populations. However, these buffers may be short-lived in extreme mismatch scenarios, providing a false sense of security against a looming threat of population collapse.

The ecological causes and consequences of hard and soft selection

Interactions between natural selection and population dynamics are central to both evolutionary-ecology and biological responses to anthropogenic change. Natural selection is often thought to incur a demographic cost that, at least temporarily, reduces population growth. However, hard and soft selection clarify that the influence of natural selection on population dynamics depends on ecological context. Under hard selection, an individual's fitness is independent of the population's phenotypic composition, and substantial population declines can occur when phenotypes are mismatched with the environment. In contrast, under soft selection, an individual's fitness is influenced by its phenotype relative to other interacting conspecifics. Soft selection generally influences which, but not how many, individuals survive and reproduce, resulting in little effect on population growth. Despite these important differences, the distinction between hard and soft selection is rarely considered in ecology. Here, we review and synthesize literature on hard and soft selection, explore their ecological causes and implications and highlight their conservation relevance to climate change, inbreeding depression, outbreeding depression and harvest. Overall, these concepts emphasise that natural selection and evolution may often have negligible or counterintuitive effects on population growth-underappreciated outcomes that have major implications in a rapidly changing world.

Tracking snowmelt to jump the green wave: phenological drivers of migration in a northern ungulate

In northern climates, spring is a time of rapid environmental change: for migrating terrestrial animals, melting snow facilitates foraging and travel, and newly emergent vegetation provides a valuable nutritional resource. These changes result in selection on the timing of important life-history events such as migration and parturition occurring when high-quality resources are most abundant. We examined the timing of female caribou (Rangifer tarandus, n = 94) migration and parturition in five herds across 7 yr in Newfoundland, Canada, as a function of two measures of environmental change-snowmelt and vegetation green-up. We generated resource selection functions to test whether caribou selected for areas associated with snowmelt and green-up during migration and following calving. We found that caribou migrated approximately 1 wk prior to snowmelt, with the flush of emergent vegetation occurring during the weeks following parturition. The results indicate that caribou "jump" the green wave of emergent forage and do so by tracking the receding edge of melting snow, likely reducing movement and foraging costs related to snow cover. Our research further broadens the ecological scope of resource tracking in animals. We demonstrate that resource tracking extends beyond resources directly related to foraging to those related to movement. We also show that snowmelt provides an environmental cue that may provide a buffer against changing environmental conditions.

Density-Dependent Adaptive Topography in a Small Passerine Bird, the Collared Flycatcher

AbstractAdaptive topography is a central concept in evolutionary biology, describing how the mean fitness of a population changes with gene frequencies or mean phenotypes. We use expected population size as a quantity to be maximized by natural selection to show that selection on pairwise combinations of reproductive traits of collared flycatchers caused by fluctuations in population size generated an adaptive topography with distinct peaks often located at intermediate phenotypes. This occurred because r- and K-selection made phenotypes favored at small densities different from those with higher fitness at population sizes close to the carrying capacity K. Fitness decreased rapidly with a delay in the timing of egg laying, with a density-dependent effect especially occurring among early-laying females. The number of fledglings maximizing fitness was larger at small population sizes than when close to K. Finally, there was directional selection for large fledglings independent of population size. We suggest that these patterns can be explained by increased competition for some limiting resources or access to favorable nest sites at high population densities. Thus, r- and K-selection based on expected population size as an evolutionary maximization criterion may influence life-history evolution and constrain the selective responses to changes in the environment.

Detrimental impacts of climate change may be exacerbated by density-dependent population regulation in blue mussels

The climate on our planet is changing and the range distributions of organisms are shifting in response. In aquatic environments, species might not be able to redistribute poleward or into deeper water when temperatures rise because of barriers, reduced light availability, altered water chemistry or any combination of these. How species respond to climate change may depend on physiological adaptability, but also on the population dynamics of the species. Density dependence is a ubiquitous force that governs population dynamics and regulates population growth, yet its connections to the impacts of climate change remain little known, especially in marine studies. Reductions in density below an environmental carrying capacity may cause compensatory increases in demographic parameters and population growth rate, hence masking the impacts of climate change on populations. On the other hand, climate-driven deterioration of conditions may reduce environmental carrying capacities, making compensation less likely and populations more susceptible to the effects of stochastic processes. Here we investigate the effects of climate change on Baltic blue mussels using a 17-year dataset on population density. Using a Bayesian modelling framework, we investigate the impacts of climate change, assess the magnitude and effects of density dependence, and project the likelihood of population decline by the year 2030. Our findings show negative impacts of warmer and less saline waters, both outcomes of climate change. We also show that density dependence increases the likelihood of population decline by subjecting the population to the detrimental effects of stochastic processes (i.e. low densities where random bad years can cause local extinction, negating the possibility for random good years to offset bad years). We highlight the importance of understanding, and accounting for both density dependence and climate variation when predicting the impact of climate change on keystone species, such as the Baltic blue mussel.

Prey-predator phenological mismatch under climate change

Insect phenology is affected by climate change and main responses are driven by phenotypic plasticity and evolutionary changes. Any modification in seasonal activity in one species can have consequences on interacting species, within and among trophic levels. In this overview, we focus on synchronisation mismatches that can occur between tightly interacting species such as hosts and parasitoids or preys and predators. Asynchronies happen because species from different trophic levels can have different response rates to climate change. We show that insect species alter their seasonal activities by modifying their life-cycle through change in voltinism or by altering their development rate. We expect strong bottom-up effects for phenology adjustments rather than top-down effects within food-webs. Extremely complex outcomes arise from such trophic mismatches, which make consequences at the community or ecosystem levels tricky to predict in a climate change context. We explore a set of potential consequences on population dynamics, conservation of species interactions, with a particular focus on the provision of ecosystem services by predators and parasitoids, such as biological pest control.

Variation in phenology and density differentially affects predator-prey interactions between salamanders

Variation in the timing of breeding (i.e., phenological variation) can affect species interactions and community structure, in part by shifting body size differences between species. Body size differences can be further altered by density-dependent competition, though synergistic effects of density and phenology on species interactions are rarely evaluated. We tested how field-realistic variation in phenology and density affected ringed salamander (Ambystoma annulatum) predation on spotted salamanders (Ambystoma maculatum), and whether these altered salamander dynamics resulted in trophic cascades. In outdoor mesocosms, we experimentally manipulated ringed salamander density (low/high) and breeding phenology (early/late) of both species. Ringed salamander body size at metamorphosis, development, and growth were reduced at higher densities, while delayed phenology increased hatchling size and larval development, but reduced relative growth rates. Survival of ringed salamanders was affected by the interactive effects of phenology and density. In contrast, spotted salamander growth, size at metamorphosis, and survival, as well as the biomass of lower trophic levels, were negatively affected primarily by ringed salamander density. In an additional mesocosm experiment, we isolated whether ringed salamanders could deplete shared resources prior to their interactions with spotted salamanders, but instead found direct interactions (e.g., predation) were the more likely mechanism by which ringed salamanders limited spotted salamanders. Overall, our results indicate the effects of phenological variability on fitness-related traits can be modified or superseded by differences in density dependence. Identifying such context dependencies will lead to greater insight into when phenological variation will likely alter species interactions.