Community-level effects of rapid experimental warming and consumer loss outweigh effects of rapid ocean acidification

Trait-based approaches to global change ecology: moving from description to prediction

Trait-based approaches are increasingly recognized as a tool for understanding ecosystem re-assembly and function under intensifying global change. Here we synthesize trait-based research globally (n = 865 studies) to examine the contexts in which traits may be used for global change prediction. We find that exponential growth in the field over the last decade remains dominated by descriptive studies of terrestrial plant morphology, highlighting significant opportunities to expand trait-based thinking across systems and taxa. Very few studies (less than 3%) focus on predicting ecological effects of global change, mostly in the past 5 years and via singular traits that mediate abiotic limits on species distribution. Beyond organism size (the most examined trait), we identify over 2500 other morphological, physiological, behavioural and life-history traits known to mediate environmental filters of species' range and abundance as candidates for future predictive global change work. Though uncommon, spatially explicit process models—which mechanistically link traits to changes in organism distributions and abundance—are among the most promising frameworks for holistic global change prediction at scales relevant for conservation decision-making. Further progress towards trait-based forecasting requires addressing persistent barriers including (1) matching scales of multivariate trait and environment data to focal processes disrupted by global change, and (2) propagating variation in trait and environmental parameters throughout process model functions using simulation.

Diversity and temperature indirectly reduce CO2 concentrations in experimental freshwater communities

Biodiversity loss and climate warming are occurring in concert, with potentially profound impacts on ecosystem functioning. We currently know very little about the combined effects of these changes on the links between the community structure, dynamics and the resulting in situ CO₂ concentrations in freshwater ecosystems. Here we aimed to determine both individual and combined effects of temperature and non-resource diversity (species inedible for a given consumer) on CO₂ concentration. Our analysis further aimed to establish both direct effects on CO₂ concentrations and potential indirect effects that occur via changes to the phytoplankton and zooplankton biomasses. Our results showed that there were no interactive effects of changes in temperature and diversity on CO₂ concentration in the water. Instead, independent increases in either temperature or non-resource diversity resulted in a substantial reduction in CO₂ concentrations, particularly at the highest non-resource diversity. The effects of non-resource diversity and warming on CO₂ were indirect, resulting largely from the positive impacts on total biomass of primary producers. Our study is the first to experimentally partition the impacts of temperature and diversity on the consumer–resource dynamics and associated changes to CO₂ concentrations. It provides new mechanistic insights into the role of diverse plankton communities for ecosystem functioning and their importance in regulating CO₂ dynamics under ongoing climate warming.

Ecological and functional consequences of coastal ocean acidification: Perspectives from the Baltic-Skagerrak System

Ocean temperatures are rising; species are shifting poleward, and pH is falling (ocean acidification, OA). We summarise current understanding of OA in the brackish Baltic-Skagerrak System, focussing on the direct, indirect and interactive effects of OA with other anthropogenic drivers on marine biogeochemistry, organisms and ecosystems. Substantial recent advances reveal a pattern of stronger responses (positive or negative) of species than ecosystems, more positive responses at lower trophic levels and strong indirect interactions in food-webs. Common emergent themes were as follows: OA drives planktonic systems toward the microbial loop, reducing energy transfer to zooplankton and fish; and nutrient/food availability ameliorates negative impacts of OA. We identify several key areas for further research, notably the need for OA-relevant biogeochemical and ecosystem models, and understanding the ecological and evolutionary capacity of Baltic-Skagerrak ecosystems to respond to OA and other anthropogenic drivers.

Vulnerability of macronutrients to the concurrent effects of enhanced temperature and atmospheric pCO2 in representative shelf sea sediment habitats

Fundamental changes in seawater carbonate chemistry and sea surface temperatures associated with the ocean uptake of anthropogenic CO2 are accelerating, but investigations of the susceptibility of biogeochemical processes to the simultaneous occurrence of multiple components of climate change are uncommon. Here, we quantify how concurrent changes in enhanced temperature and atmospheric pCO2, coupled with an associated shift in macrofaunal community structure and behavior (sediment particle reworking and bioirrigation), modify net carbon and nutrient concentrations (NH4-N, NOx-N, PO4-P) in representative shelf sea sediment habitats (mud, sandy-mud, muddy-sand and sand) of the Celtic Sea. We show that net concentrations of organic carbon, nitrogen and phosphate are, irrespective of sediment type, largely unaffected by a simultaneous increase in temperature and atmospheric pCO2. However, our analyses also reveal that a reduction in macrofaunal species richness and total abundance occurs under future environmental conditions, varies across a gradient of cohesive to non-cohesive sediments, and negatively moderates biogeochemical processes, in particular nitrification. Our findings indicate that future environmental conditions are unlikely to have strong direct effects on biogeochemical processes but, particularly in muddy sands, the abundance, activity, composition and functional role of invertebrate communities are likely to be altered in ways that will be sufficient to regulate the function of the microbial community and the availability of nutrients in shelf sea waters.

Interaction strength between different grazers and macroalgae mediated by ocean acidification over warming gradients

Since the past century, rising CO₂ levels have led to global changes (ocean warming and acidification) with subsequent effects on marine ecosystems and organisms. Macroalgae-herbivore interactions have a main role in the regulation of marine community structure (top-down control). Gradients of warming prompt complex non-linear effects on organism metabolism, cascading into altered trophic interactions and community dynamics. However, not much is known on how will acidification and grazer assemblage composition shape these effects. Within this context, we aimed to assess the combined effects of warming gradients and acidification on macroalgae-herbivore interactions, using three cosmopolitan species, abundant in the Iberian Peninsula and closely associated in nature: the amphipod Melita palmata, the gastropod Gibbula umbilicalis, and the green macroalga Ulva rigida. Under two CO₂ treatments (ΔCO₂ ≃ 450 μatm) across a temperature gradient (13.5, 16.6, 19.9 and 22.1 °C), two mesocosm experiments were performed to assess grazer consumption rates and macroalgae-herbivore interaction, respectively. Warming (Experiment I and II) and acidification (Experiment II) prompted negative effects in grazer's survival and species-specific differences in consumption rates. M. palmata was shown to be the stronger grazer per biomass (but not per capita), and also the most affected by climate stressors. Macroalgae-herbivore interaction strength was markedly shaped by the temperature gradient, while simultaneous acidification lowered thermal optimal threshold. In the near future, warming and acidification are likely to strengthen top-down control, but further increases in disturbances may lead to bottom-up regulated communities. Finally, our results suggest that grazer assemblage composition may modulate future macroalgae-herbivore interactions.

Future warming and acidification effects on anti-fouling and anti-herbivory traits of the brown alga Fucus vesiculosus (Phaeophyceae)

Human-induced ocean warming and acidification have received increasing attention over the past decade and are considered to have substantial consequences for a broad range of marine species and their interactions. Understanding how these interactions shift in response to climate change is particularly important with regard to foundation species, such as the brown alga Fucus vesiculosus. This macroalga represents the dominant habitat former on coastal rocky substrata of the Baltic Sea, fulfilling functions essential for the entire benthic community. Its ability to withstand extensive fouling and herbivory regulates the associated community and ecosystem dynamics. This study tested the interactive effects of future warming, acidification, and seasonality on the interactions of a marine macroalga with potential foulers and consumers. F. vesiculosus rockweeds were exposed to different combinations of conditions predicted regionally for the year 2100 (+∆5°C, +∆700 μatm CO2 ) using multifactorial long-term experiments in novel outdoor benthic mesocosms ("Benthocosms") over 9-12-week periods in four seasons. Possible shifts in the macroalgal susceptibility to fouling and consumption were tested using consecutive bioassays. Algal susceptibility to fouling and grazing varied substantially among seasons and between treatments. In all seasons, warming predominantly affected anti-fouling and anti-herbivory interactions while acidification had a subtle nonsignificant influence. Interestingly, anti-microfouling activity was highest during winter under warming, while anti-macrofouling and anti-herbivory activities were highest in the summer under warming. These contrasting findings indicate that seasonal changes in anti-fouling and anti-herbivory traits may interact with ocean warming in altering F. vesiculosus community composition in the future.

Temperature effects on seaweed-sustaining top-down control vary with season

Rising seawater temperature and CO2 concentrations (ocean acidification) represent two of the most influential factors impacting marine ecosystems in the face of global climate change. In ecological climate change research, full-factorial experiments performed across seasons in multispecies, cross-trophic-level settings are essential as they permit a more realistic estimation of direct and indirect effects as well as the relative importance of the effects of both major environmental stressors on ecosystems. In benthic mesocosm experiments, we tested the responses of coastal Baltic Sea Fucus vesiculosus communities to elevated seawater temperature and CO2 concentrations across four seasons of one year. While increasing [CO2] levels had only minor effects, warming had strong and persistent effects on grazers, and the resulting effects on the Fucus community were found to be season dependent. In late summer, a temperature-driven collapse of grazers caused a cascading effect from the consumers to the foundation species, resulting in overgrowth of Fucus thalli by epiphytes. In fall/winter (outside the growing season of epiphytes), intensified grazing under warming resulted in a significant reduction in Fucus biomass. Thus, we were able to confirm the prediction that future increases in water temperatures will influence marine food-web processes by altering top-down control, but we were also able to show that specific consequences for food-web structure depend on the season. Since F. vesiculosus is the dominant habitat-forming brown algal system in the Baltic Sea, its potential decline under global warming implies a loss of key functions and services such as provision of nutrient storage, substrate, food, shelter, and nursery grounds for a diverse community of marine invertebrates and fish in Baltic Sea coastal waters.

Five Years of Experimental Warming Increases the Biodiversity and Productivity of Phytoplankton

Phytoplankton are key components of aquatic ecosystems, fixing CO₂ from the atmosphere through photosynthesis and supporting secondary production, yet relatively little is known about how future global warming might alter their biodiversity and associated ecosystem functioning. Here, we explore how the structure, function, and biodiversity of a planktonic metacommunity was altered after five years of experimental warming. Our outdoor mesocosm experiment was open to natural dispersal from the regional species pool, allowing us to explore the effects of experimental warming in the context of metacommunity dynamics. Warming of 4°C led to a 67% increase in the species richness of the phytoplankton, more evenly-distributed abundance, and higher rates of gross primary productivity. Warming elevated productivity indirectly, by increasing the biodiversity and biomass of the local phytoplankton communities. Warming also systematically shifted the taxonomic and functional trait composition of the phytoplankton, favoring large, colonial, inedible phytoplankton taxa, suggesting stronger top-down control, mediated by zooplankton grazing played an important role. Overall, our findings suggest that temperature can modulate species coexistence, and through such mechanisms, global warming could, in some cases, increase the species richness and productivity of phytoplankton communities.

A five-year mesocosm experiment shows that warmer water temperatures increase the biodiversity and productivity of phytoplankton communities.

At the global scale, phytoplankton take up about as much carbon dioxide (CO₂) as the tropical rainforests. However, in spite of their importance in global carbon cycles, we understand very little about how phytoplankton communities and the critical functions they mediate, including CO₂ sequestration, are likely to change as the climate warms in the coming decades. In this study, we report the results of a five-year warming study in experimental outdoor ponds, known as mesocosms. Warmed (+4°C) communities had 67% more species and higher rates of gross primary productivity (CO₂ fixation). Our results show that warming resulted in higher productivity by increasing the biodiversity and biomass of the phytoplankton. Warming also changed the species composition of the phytoplankton communities by favouring larger organisms that were more resistant to grazing from zooplankton. Our work demonstrates that future global warming is likely to have major impacts on the composition, biodiversity, and functioning of planktonic ecosystems by affecting metabolic rates and species interactions. The increases in the biodiversity and productivity of the phytoplankton seen in this study also highlights that the effects of a warming environment might not always be adverse for all ecosystems.