Performance progression of elite jumpers: Early performances do not predict later success

Talent Identification: Time to Move Forward on Estimation of Potentials? Proposed Explanations and Promising Methods

The scientific literature on talent identification is extensive, with significant advancements made over the past 30 years. However, as with any field, the translation of research into practice and its impact on the field have been slower than anticipated. Indeed, recent findings highlight a pervasive relative age effect, the effects of maturation being often overlooked, disparate populations between young and senior performers, and a necessity to embrace a holistic approach. However, simple elements can be implemented to avoid some of these known biases. This review synthesizes recent advancements, critically examines key elements to consider in talent identification, and proposes promising avenues for enhancement. These include (1) understanding and illustrating early performance influences, (2) implementing individualized performance trajectory models, (3) applying corrective adjustments based on relative, biological, and training age, and (4) improving estimation of potentials through a holistic approach that integrates "life pathways". In light of these necessary improvements, it seems opportune to propose a semantic shift to generate a change in both conceptual and operational paradigms. The proposed terminology of "estimation of potential" is based on a semantic and mathematical definition, which operationalizes its conceptualization. This study suggests that understanding the trajectories of transitions from youth to senior categories in each sport, coupled with a holistic approach centered on individual performance progressions across the three ages, would be a possible path toward estimating potential.

Relative Age Effect Among World-Class Jump Athletes

The relative age effect (RAE), as a widely recognized phenomenon in the field of sports, reveals the bias in talent selection across various sporting disciplines and the neglect of certain potentially gifted athletes. The study aims to analyze RAE incidence and athletic performance among the top 100 world-ranked high jump and long jump athletes, as well as to examine the differences across the five continents. Finally, successful professional athletes are divided into two groups, namely the "All-Phase Success (AS)" and the "Senior Success (SS)" based on their success during their youth. A comparison is made between the performance and age differences of these two groups. The results indicate: 1) the RAE is present across all age groups (U18, U20, Senior) and both sexes in the high jump and long jump events (except for the senior male high jump). 2) Athletes in the AS group are consistently 2-3 years younger at each key stage of their athletic careers compared to those in the SS group. 3) Relatively younger athletes exhibit higher transition rates during their youth period compared to relatively older athletes. However, despite the larger number of relatively older athletes, AS athletes still outperform SS athletes in high jump and long jump events.

Unveiling the Development of Sprint Athletes: Percentile Patterns, Peak Performance Age, and a Performance Progression Model

The purpose of this study was to provide percentile curves, peak performance age for all sprint distances, and two linear regression models in order to analyse the individual trajectories of Spanish sprinters to explain the achievement of the senior category. A retrospective analysis was undertaken using rankings of the Spanish Athletics Federation. We analysed 4398 sprint athletes between 2004 and 2021. Our results show that the percentile curves are farther apart as the distance increased. Peak performance age was reached earlier in males than females in all distance categories (25.31 ± 0.12 and 25.79 ± 0.70 years for 100 m, 25.45 ± 0.16 and 27.40 ± 0.31 years for 200 m, and 25.61 ± 0.24 and 27.46 ± 2.28 years for 400 m in males and females, respectively). The two linear regressions display the importance of consistent high performance in junior categories (p < 0.01; β = -1.92 and p = 0.15; β = -1.22, respectively) together with the best results in the U23 category (p < 0.001; β = 0.51 and p < 0.001; β = 0.51, respectively) to achieve participation in the senior category. We conclude that as the running distance increases, the differences between percentiles also increase, the peak performance age occurs earlier in Spanish sprinters than shown in previous research for all sprint distances, and attaining the senior category depends upon achieving the best results in previous categories and gaining extensive experience (consistent high-performance participation) in the event.

Performance pathways in elite middle- and long-distance track and field athletes: The influence of a successful youth

OBJECTIVES

There is limited information on the performance progression of athletics endurance athletes from junior-to-senior status and the determinants of success in adulthood. This study aimed to quantify the youth-to-senior transition rate, the likelihood of success and the relationship between youth and senior performance amongst world-class athletes competing in middle- and long-distance disciplines.

DESIGN

Retrospective design examining public data between 2000 and 2019.

METHODS

The performances of 4678 international athletes (45.3 % female) were analysed. World's all-time top 50 athletes were identified for U18 and Senior categories (age ≥ 20 years). Youth-to-senior transition rate and transition probabilities were calculated. Correlations between best U18 and Senior performances were determined to assess the stability of the performance.

RESULTS

The youth-to-senior transition rate for top U18 athletes was low for males and females (~19 % and 21 %). Nevertheless, the probability of transition to a top senior was ~7 times higher for top U18 athletes than for non-top U18 athletes. The correlations between youth and senior best performances were low-to-high.

CONCLUSIONS

Few top U18 athletes maintained top world ranking status during their senior careers. Still, they are more likely to become top senior athletes than those who did not perform at the top level in U18. The association between youth and senior performance is stronger when comparing the same discipline or when athletes competed over longer distances in their senior compared to U18 career. Being a successful youth athlete may represent a small advantage for future success, however, it does not guarantee advancement to the senior top level.

Cadet and Junior Performance Is Associated With Senior's World Championship and Olympics Achievement in Judo

Purpose: We determined whether cadet and junior Judo World Championship participation and medal achievement would predict senior performance at World Championship (WC) and Olympic Games (OG). Methods: We analyzed retrospectively a total of 7780 athletes who competed at the OG and WC in the cadet, junior, and senior between 2009 and 2021. Results: There was an increase in the probability of winning a medal in the senior category (WC and OG, and only WC) ranged from 4.3 to 4.5 for medal-winning cadets compared to non-medalists and this probability remained around 3.3-3.8 for medalists in the male and 5.3-5.4 for the female medalists in cadet WC. Moreover, the chance of winning a medal in the senior category (WC and OG) was 8.1-8.5 times greater for medalists when compared to non-medalists in the junior WC. In turn, the probability of winning a medal in the senior (WC) was 1.5-1.7 times greater for athletes who did not compete in the junior WC. In the OG, the probability of winning a medal was 3.5 greater times for medalists when compared to non-medalists at cadet and junior WC. Conclusion: Thus, being a cadet or junior WC medalist increases the probability of winning a senior WC or an Olympic medal.

Understanding the first injury in athletics and its effect on dropout from sport: an online survey on 544 high-level youth and junior athletics (track and field) athletes

Objective

To describe the first injury and to investigate whether it plays a role in altering athletics' sustainable practice.

Methods

We conducted a cross-sectional study using an exploratory survey on the first injury and its consequences on athletics practice. In 2021, we asked all high-level athletes licensed with the French Federation of Athletics (FFA) under 18 years, under 20 years and under 23 years categories between 2007 and 2021.

Results

Out of 6560 emails sent by FFA, 544 athletes responded, and 93.6% (n=510) reported experiencing at least one injury during their career. The first injury occurred at a mean age of 17.5±3.3 years after 6.1±4.1 years of athletics practice. The main locations of the first injury were the posterior thigh (28.9%), the ankle (16.5%) and the knee (12.6%), and the principal reported injury types were muscle (37.7%), tendon (17.5%) and ligament (15.5%). More than a third of injured athletes (36.7%) reported experiencing ongoing symptoms or sequelae after their first injury, and about half (48.5%) experienced recurrences. About 20% had stopped athletics at the time of the survey, with injury problems the primary cause of athletes dropping out (46.2%), including the first injury (9.4%).

Conclusions

Injuries played an important role in altering sustainable athletics practice, with injury accounting for about 50% of all reported dropouts and the first injury accounting for about 10% of all reported causes. Our results provide evidence to target the prevention of the first injury, which could be considered the origin of the 'vicious circle' of injuries.

Prospective and Retrospective Analysis of the Sporting Success of Elite Spanish High and Long Jumpers

The aim of the present study was to analyze the sporting progression from U14 to senior categories of elite Spanish high and long jumpers. For prospective analysis, 300 athletes ranked top 20 at U14 were analyzed (153 female and 147 male). For retrospective analysis, 64 athletes ranked in the top 20 in the senior category were included (21 female and 43 male). Ranking positions were registered in each of the seasons where they presented records. Only 6.3% (19) of athletes who reached the top 20 at U14 became successful senior athletes [4.7% (14) of athletes maintained top 20 status throughout their sporting careers from U14 to senior]. The transition rate from U14 to U16 (35.7%) was the most severe drop down in consecutive categories (after this, it ranged from 47.8 to 66.7%). Of the senior top 20 athletes (64), most of them were already ranked top 20 at U16 (59.4%, 38), at U18 (62.5%, 40), at U20 (70.3%, 45) and at U23 (78.1%, 50). Nevertheless, only 34.4% (22) were top 20 when they were U14 athletes. Transition rates in the top 20 senior athletes ranged from 86.7 to 95.5%. Around one out of four (26.6%, 17) of the top 20 senior athletes maintained top 20 status throughout their sporting careers from U14 to the senior category. Although early success is not a good predictor of senior success, successful senior athletes excelled early on and were able to remain in top rankings throughout their sporting careers of national elite jumpers.

Early Success is not a Prerequisite for Success at the Adult Age in Spanish Sprinters

The aim of the study was to describe the relationship between success in junior and senior categories in sprint events. An observational and longitudinal analysis was carried out using rankings of the Royal Spanish Athletics Federation database. We analysed 547 sprinters (238 women and 309 men) from their U14 to senior stage who ranked in top-20 on at least one occasion during the period 2004 to 2021. The first entry in top-20 occurred mostly in U14 (44.4%, 243), and the frequency was progressively lower: 26.7% (146) in U16; 20.8% (114) in U18; 5.1% (28) in U20; 2% (11) in U23; and 0.9% (5) in the senior category. A similar tendency was observed in male and female athletes. Only 3.8% (9) of top-20 U14 athletes reached the senior elite stage, increasing this percentage in subsequent categories: 7.4% (15) in U16; 10.6% (24) in U18; 20.9% (32) in U20, and 31.4% (32) from U23 to the senior category. Data from female athletes showed higher maintenance of top-20 status from early categories to senior age. We conclude that even though the first entry into the national top-20 in sprint events occurs early in most cases, success in these initial stages is not a prerequisite for reaching top-20 positions in the senior category.

Junior to senior transition pathway in Italian Football: The rocky road to the top is not determined by youth national team's selections

Football is a popular sport, but little is known about the youth-to-senior transition rates in elite players, particularly in large and successful countries. This study aims to investigate the youth-to-senior transition rate in the Italian national football team, both prospectively and retrospectively, and to explore if Relative Age Effects (RAEs) affect this transition. Data from 885 players selected in youth and senior Italian national teams between 2000 and 2021 were included in the study. For each player, the birthdate and the number of selection in Under 16, 17, 19, 21 and senior team was considered. The transition rate was determined by the number of youth players competing in the Senior National team (and vice versa), whilst birth quarter (Q) distributions with a chi-square goodness-of-fit test. Prospectively, the transition rate increased as age increased (i.e., from ~20% in U16 to ~50% in U19). Retrospectively, less than 10-20% of youth players were subsequently selected for the senior team. Data revealed a skewed birth date distribution in all age groups, and the RAEs magnitude decreased when age increased (i.e., ORs for Q1 vs Q4 was ~ 9 in U16 and ~ 1.7 in senior teams). Nevertheless, the RAE magnitude was smaller for successfully transitioned players. In conclusion, most players in the senior team were not previously selected for youth teams suggesting that junior international experience may not be a prerequisite for later success. Moreover, while the birthdate strongly influences the selection of youth national teams, its impact is less evident in the youth-to-senior transition.

Quantifying the Extent to Which Successful Juniors and Successful Seniors are Two Disparate Populations: A Systematic Review and Synthesis of Findings

BACKGROUND

To what extent does the pathway to senior elite success build on junior elite success? Evidence from longitudinal studies investigating athletes' junior-to-senior performance development is mixed; prospective studies have reported percentages of juniors who achieved an equivalent competition level at senior age (e.g., international championships at both times) ranging from 0 to 68%. Likewise, retrospective studies have reported percentages of senior athletes who had achieved an equivalent competition level at junior age ranging from 2 to 100%. However, samples have been heterogeneous in terms of junior age categories, competition levels, sex, sports, and sample sizes.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to establish more robust and generalizable findings via a systematic review and synthesis of findings. We considered three competition levels-competing at a national championship level, competing at an international championship level, and winning international medals-and addressed three questions: (1) How many junior athletes reach an equivalent competition level when they are senior athletes? (2) How many senior athletes reached an equivalent competition level when they were junior athletes? The answers to these questions provide an answer to Question (3): To what extent are successful juniors and successful seniors one identical population or two disparate populations?

METHODS

We conducted a systematic literature search in SPORTDiscus, ERIC, ProQuest, PsychInfo, PubMed, Scopus, WorldCat, and Google Scholar until 15 March 2022. Percentages of juniors who achieved an equivalent competition level at senior age (prospective studies) and of senior athletes who had achieved an equivalent competition level at junior age (retrospective studies) were aggregated across studies to establish these percentages for all athletes, separately for prospective and retrospective studies, junior age categories, and competition levels. Quality of evidence was evaluated using the Mixed Methods Appraisal Tool (MMAT) version for descriptive quantitative studies.

RESULTS

Prospective studies included 110 samples with 38,383 junior athletes. Retrospective studies included 79 samples with 22,961 senior athletes. The following findings emerged: (1) Few elite juniors later achieved an equivalent competition level at senior age, and few elite seniors had previously achieved an equivalent competition level at junior age. For example, 89.2% of international-level U17/18 juniors failed to reach international level as seniors and 82.0% of international-level seniors had not reached international level as U17/18 juniors. (2) Successful juniors and successful seniors are largely two disparate populations. For example, international-level U17/18 juniors and international-level seniors were 7.2% identical and 92.8% disparate. (3) Percentages of athletes achieving equivalent junior and senior competition levels were the smallest among the highest competition levels and the youngest junior age categories. (4) The quality of evidence was generally high.

DISCUSSION

The findings question the tenets of traditional theories of giftedness and expertise as well as current practices of talent selection and talent promotion. A PRISMA-P protocol was registered at https://osf.io/gck4a/ .

Relative age effect reversal on the junior-to-senior transition in world-class athletics

The relative age effect (RAE) is a selection bias resulting from the interaction between the selected dates and birthdates. Nevertheless, the impact of birthdate on the junior-to-senior transition in international track and field is unclear. This study aimed to quantify the RAE's magnitude and test if birthdate affects the junior-to-senior transition rate. The birthdate and performances of 5,766 sprinters (female: 51.0%) and 5,863 jumpers (female: 45.9%) were collected. Elite athletes (operationally defined as the World's all-time Top 200, 100 and 50 athletes) were identified according to Under 18 and Senior categories. Skewed quartile distributions were observed in the Under 18 (effect size ranged = 0.15-0.10) but not in the Senior category. RAE magnitude increased according to performance level (i.e., from Top 200 to Top 50) and was higher in males than females. Relatively younger athletes showed significantly higher transition rates with a higher chance of maintaining top level in the senior category (odds ratio (OR) ~ 1.64). The probability of maintaining success was lower for sprinters than jumpers (OR ~ 0.70), influenced by decade of birth and continental place but similar for male and female athletes. Data corroborate that relatively younger athletes are disadvantaged in the junior category but advantaged when transitioning to the senior category.

Two Is Better than One: Successful World-Class Sprinters Compete in Two Disciplines

We aimed to quantify the prevalence of track and field sprinters competing at a world-class level in more than one discipline, and we describe the career characteristics of single- and double-discipline athletes in terms of peak performance and the age of peak performance. The career performance of athletes ranked in the top 200 positions of the World Athletics database in the 100 m, 200 m, and 400 m were analyzed, i.e., 5514 career profiles (49.9% female). Using binomial proportion, we calculated how many competed in only one or more than one discipline. We also compared the peak performance and the age of peak performance of athletes who competed in one vs. more than one discipline. Independent of gender, about 50% of the athletes competing in the 100 m and 200 m also competed in the other discipline (i.e., 200 m and 100 m, respectively). Differently, only 20% of the athletes competing in the 400 m also competed in the 200 m. Sprinters competing in the 100-200 m and 200-400 m couples showed better peak performance than the sprinters competing in only one discipline. Many world-class sprinters compete in two disciplines, and the 100-200 m was the most prevalent couple. Our results also suggest that sprinters who compete in two disciplines may be advantaged compared to sprinters who compete in only one event.

Why age categories in youth sport should be eliminated: Insights from performance development of youth female long jumpers

Long-term sports participation and performance development are major issues in popular sports and talent development programs. This study aimed to provide longitudinal trends in youth female long jump performance development, participation, and relative age effects (RAEs), as longitudinal data for female athletes are missing. 51'894 season's best results of female long jump athletes (n = 16'189) were acquired from the Swiss Athletics online database and analyzed within a range of 6-22 years of age. To examine longitudinal performance development and RAEs, data from athletes who participated in at least three seasons were selected (n = 41'253) and analyzed. Performance development was analyzed using age groups (AGs) and exact chronological age (CA) at competition. Differences between performances of birth quarters were analyzed using 83% confidence intervals (CIs) and smallest worthwhile change. Odds ratios (ORs) with 95% CI were used to quantify RAEs. With the traditional classification into age groups (AG), performances of athletes born between January and March (Q1) were significantly better than those born between October and December (Q4) from U8 to U17. Using exact CA resulted in similar performances in Q1 and Q4 until the U20 age category. The peak of participation was reached in the U12 category, and then decreased until the U23 category with a substantial drop at U17. Significant RAEs were observed from U8 to U19 and at U22. RAEs continuously decreased from U8 (large effect) to U14 (small effect). The present results show that differences in performance arise from the comparison of athletes in AGs. Thus, going beyond AGs and using exact CA, Q4 athletes could benefit from a realistic performance comparison, which promotes fair performance evaluation, un-biased talent development, realistic feedback, and long-term participation.

Don't Throw the Baby Out With the Bathwater: Talent in Swimming Sprinting Events Might Be Hidden at Early Age

PURPOSE

This study aimed to describe the career performance progression of elite early- and later-success international swimmers competing in sprint events (ie, 50 and 100 m).

METHODS

The career performance trajectories of 6003 swimmers (50.9% females; 58,760 unique records) competing in the 4 swimming strokes were evaluated. Swimmers with early and later success were identified. The authors identified the top 50 all-time swimmers competing in junior career who did not reach the top 50 rankings in their senior career, and vice versa, and successful swimmers in both junior and senior career.

RESULTS

Early-success swimmers mainly achieved their peak performance before the age of 20 years and approximately 5-6 years before successful senior swimmers or approximately 3-4 years before successful swimmers both in junior and senior careers. The annual performance improvements of later-success swimmers were higher (about 1%-2%) until the age of 20 to 24 years, whereas early-success swimmers showed a performance stagnation at about 16 to 18 years in females and 19 to 20 years in males.

CONCLUSIONS

Early-success swimmers who achieved peak performance at a young age were unable to maintain the same level of competitiveness in adulthood as they experienced a plateau in performance from the age of 20 years. The procedure of considering early performances solely for talent identification (and not the current rate of progression) might represent a limited approach for selecting future elite swimmers. Our results indicate that performance progression in the transition toward adult careers might be a strong indicator of performance potential.

THE INFLUENCE OF VARIATION IN ALTITUDE ON ATHLETIC PERFORMANCE IN LONG-DISTANCE RUNNERS

ABSTRACT Introduction: The academic community has demonstrated the link of athletic performance in track and field with critical factors of sports training, including the psychology of competition. Recently, research has been verified that athletic performance is also related to altitude, weather, ambiance, and the timing of the competition. There are no studies to provide theoretical and practical training experience in the regional environment of Ganzhou. Objective: This paper analyzes the influence of altitude training in professional performance athletes. Concurrently, analysis of the physiological and biochemical indicators of the athletes is performed. Methods: Several long-distance runners had an 8-week altitude training. Analyzed the physiological and biochemical indicators of the athletes before and after the training. At the same time, perform mathematical-statistical analysis on the performance of long-distance runners before and after training. Results: After altitude training, hemoglobin and red blood cells showed a significant decrease (P<0.01). After training, athletes’ performance improved considerably (P<0.01). Conclusion: Training at different altitudes may promote an ascending curve in the athletes’ performance until a plateau in the fourth week of training. Evidence Level II; Therapeutic Studies - Investigating the result.

Performance in youth track and field is associated with birth quartile. A register-based study among athletes in Norway from 10 years to senior level

Introduction

Earlier studies have demonstrated that the oldest in a competition class are more likely to succeed than the youngest, a phenomenon called relative age effect (RAE). Track and field give us an opportunity to investigate the advantage of being born early in the year based upon actual performance, since objective criteria are the performance indicators. Hence, the aim of the present study was to investigate the occurrence of RAE in Norwegian track and field athletes in events where physical capacity is important for success.

Methods

All individual season best results from the register of The Norwegian Athletics Federation (n = 28 999) obtained in all competition classes from the age of 10 years to senior in both sexes on 60m and 600m from 2011 to 2020 were downloaded. One-way ANOVA and LSD post hoc analyses were used to analyze performance differences according to birth quartiles between athletes. Further, odds ratios (OR) were used to calculate the odds of being among the top-100 for athletes for those born in the first quartile of the year compared to the last.

Results

The RAE was present in several of the competition classes in sprint compared to middle-distance running, and in more male than female competition classes. Overall, the OR of being among the top-100 in one of the competition classes on 60m sprint when born in first quartile compared to last quartile was 2.88 [2.30–3.62] for males and 1.54 [1.26–1.89] for females.

Conclusion

Being born early in the year in events with high demand for specific physical capacities is an advantage in both sexes in most of the youngest competition classes. In males, the advantage of being born early in the year lasted longer in sprint than in middle-distance running, indicating that puberty affects performance in sprint and middle-distance running differently.

Impact of sport training on adaptations in neural functioning and behavioral performance: A scoping review with meta-analysis on EEG research

Background/objective

Investigating the neural mechanisms underlying sport performance has been a research focus in the field of sport science. The current review aims to identify distinct characteristics between athletes and non-athletes at behavioral and neural levels. Further analysis was conducted as to potential reasons that contributed to the differences.

Methods

Literature was searched through PubMed, ScienceDirect, Cochrane, EBSCO, and Web of Science for EEG studies that compared athletes with non-athletes or novices in behavioral performance and brain function.

Results

The process of literature search and selection identified 16 studies that satisfied the predetermined inclusion criteria. Theta, alpha, and beta frequency bands were employed as the primary EEG measures of cortical activities in the included studies. Athletes indicated significant advantages over controls in behavioral performance, H e d g e s ' g = 0.42 , p = 0.02 , and brain function, H e d g e s ' g = 0.49 , p = 0.03 . Moderator analysis on behavioral performance indicated a large effect size in sport-related performance, H e d g e s ' g = 0.90 , p = 0.01 , but a small, non-significant effect size in general tasks, H e d g e s ' g = 0.14 , p = 0.44 .

Conclusions

Superior performance in sport-related tasks mostly contributed to athletes' significant advantage in behavioral performance. Additionally, favorable profiles of brain function associated with athletes included neural efficiency, increased cortical asymmetry, greater cognitive flexibility, and precise timing of cortical activation. Applying EEG technique to sport has shown promising directions in performance improvement and talent identification for young athletes.

Analysis of Olympic and World boxing medalists from 1904 to 2019: The role of age, height, weight categories and nationality

Study aim: To investigate the role of age, height, and weight categories on the performance of top nations and boxing medalists in Olympic Games (OG) (1904–2018) and World Championships (WG) (1974–2019).

Material and methods: Data were collected from 1,806 athletes using the website of International Boxing Association (AIBA), International Olympic Committee (IOC) and Wikipedia.

Results: The average age of medalists was ~24yrs with an increase of age (medium effect) across this 115 years period. Height was 1.76m and the super heavy category had significantly higher values by age and height compared to the other weight categories. The top medalists were three men with triple gold medals on OG and 13 over three on WC. Performance was associated with nationality (p < 0.01, medium effect), where a dominance of Cubans (211 medals) was observed.

Conclusion: These findings highlighted the importance of the long-term development and specialization of talent athletes for peak performance in elite competitions.

Youth International Experience Is a Limited Predictor of Senior Success in Football: The Relationship Between U17, U19, and U21 Experience and Senior Elite Participation Across Nations and Playing Positions

Athlete participation in youth international competitions is often regarded as crucial to the attainment of future success. However, the link between participation and performance in sports at youth levels and senior levels is unclear at best. To understand this relationship better we conducted two studies of male football players. In Study 1, we examined adult performance at the upper levels of football using a factor analysis and identified the characteristics that define what we termed a “Super Elite” level, which is the highest level of participation. This outcome measure was used in Study 2 to explore further the link between youth international experience and athletes' Super Elite experience. Overall, our results indicated that youth international experience is a limited predictor of participation at the Super Elite level of football. Participation at the U21 level was the strongest, most consistent predictor of Super Elite level participation. U17 participation was found to be either an insignificant or a negative predictor of subsequent participation in international football. The effect of U19 participation on later participation was partly significant, but weaker than the effect of U21 participation, and depended on the national context and the playing positions of the athletes. When looking at the effect of different youth career types, careers involving U21 international experience were the strongest predictors of later careers as Super Elite athletes. National governing bodies that want to ensure success in talent identification and development should therefore consider focusing fewer resources on youth international competitions in age categories before adulthood. A total of 1,482 players who had national football team experience at either the U17, U19, U21, or senior levels were included in our studies.

Psychosocial and Physiological Factors Affecting Selection to Regional Age-Grade Rugby Union Squads: A Machine Learning Approach

Talent selection programmes choose athletes for talent development pathways. Currently, the set of psychosocial variables that determine talent selection in youth Rugby Union are unknown, with the literature almost exclusively focusing on physiological variables. The purpose of this study was to use a novel machine learning approach to identify the physiological and psychosocial models that predict selection to a regional age-grade rugby union team. Age-grade club rugby players (n = 104; age, 15.47 ± 0.80; U16, n = 62; U18, n = 42) were assessed for physiological and psychosocial factors during regional talent selection days. Predictive models (selected vs. non-selected) were created for forwards, backs, and across all players using Bayesian machine learning. The generated physiological models correctly classified 67.55% of all players, 70.09% of forwards, and 62.50% of backs. Greater hand-grip strength, faster 10 m and 40 m sprint, and power were common features for selection. The generated psychosocial models correctly classified 62.26% of all players, 73.66% of forwards, and 60.42% of backs. Reduced burnout, reduced emotional exhaustion, and lower reduced sense of accomplishment, were common features for selection. Selection appears to be predominantly based on greater strength, speed, and power, as well as lower athlete burnout.

Singing off the same hymn sheet? Examining coherence in a talent development pathway (part 2)

Existing literature highlights the common characteristics of successful talent development environments, notably the need for long-term development, individual athlete attention, communication, alignment, and psycho-behavioural development. Little is known however about the complex talent development environment of an international sport organisation where multiple contexts and various stakeholders exist. Considering the lack of research relating to females in talent development, we examined a female national hockey talent development environment and more specifically the level of coherence that existed within the talent development environment from different stakeholder perspectives. Twenty-seven international female hockey players and fourteen pathway staff members from across the talent development pathway participated in semi-structured focus groups. An inductive-deductive thematic analysis was conducted. Results suggest that the talent development environment provides a long-term development experience supplemented with individual athlete attention at international level. However, a general lack of coherence and systematic development was evident across the talent development environment contexts with varying levels of coherence found within the higher-order themes of appropriate development, not early success, individualised and ongoing development, and wide-ranging coherent messages and support. This highlights a need for improved direction from the National Governing Body if systematic coherence towards talent development is to be achieved.

Small Relative Age Effect Appears in Professional Female Italian Team Sports

The relative age effect (RAE) concerns those (dis)advantages and outcomes resulting from an interaction between the dates of selection and birthdates. Although this phenomenon is well known in a male context, limited data are available in female sports. Thus, the aim of this study was to quantify the prevalence and magnitude of the RAE in a female Italian context at the professional level in basketball, soccer, and volleyball. A total of 1535 birthdates of elite senior players were analyzed overall and separately between early and late career stages. Chi-square goodness-of-fit tests were applied to investigate the RAE in each sport. An asymmetry in birthdates was observed in all sports (Crammer's V ranged = 0.10-0.12). Players born close to the beginning of the year were 1.62 and 1.61 times more likely to reach first and second Italian divisions of soccer and volleyball, respectively, than those born in the last part of the year. A small over-representation of female athletes born close to the beginning of the year is evident at the senior professional level in all Italian investigated team sports. In soccer, this trend was more evident in the first stage of a senior career.

Storm Clouds on the Horizon: On the Emerging Need to Tighten Selection Policies

Athlete selection is fundamental in elite sport, occurring regularly throughout an athlete's development. Research in this area reveals the accuracy of these decisions is questionable in even the most elite sport environments and athletes are increasingly disputing these decisions as unfair and punitive. As a countermeasure to these dispute and arbitration practices, many elite sport systems have created policies where coaches must outline and stand behind the criteria used for their selection decisions. Selection criteria policies have the potential to help encourage fair selection practices by holding selectors accountable to their selection criteria, but their implementation also has the potential to wrongfully nudge selectors toward developing more defendable, but less-accurate selection practices. The paper concludes with 10 suggestions to help support practitioners when implementing selection criteria.

Corrective procedures remove relative age effect from world-class junior sprinters

This retrospective study investigated whether corrective adjustment procedures can remove the relative age effect (RAE) from world-class junior sprinters at the beginning of their career. A total of 2,918 male and 3,029 female athletes competing in sprint races (100 m, 200 m, and 400 m) of the World Athletics lists between 2000 and 2018 were considered. Longitudinal quadratic trendline equations across ages 16-25 yrs were calculated considering athletes' exact age and respective performance. Corrective adjustment calculations from the estimated longitudinal quadratic equations were applied at 16 yrs and 17 yrs. RAE was investigated for the whole sample and top-level athletes (i.e., first Top50 and Top100) considering the uncorrected and corrected performance. Moderate to large RAE was observed in Top50 and Top100 at 16 yrs. Differently, a lower RAE was observed at 17 yrs. When re-examining the data using the corrective adjustment calculations, the RAE disappeared in all sprint events and both genders at 16 yrs, while a more equal distribution was observed at 17 yrs. Corrective adjustment procedures can remove or at least reduce the RAE in world-class sprinters. Applying simple equations based on exact age might improve the accuracy of performance evaluation and talent identification in international track and field sprint competitions.

Peak Age and Relative Performance Progression in International Cross-Country Skiers

PURPOSE

To quantify peak age and relative performance progression toward peak age in cross-country skiing according to event type, sex, and athlete performance level.

METHODS

International Ski Federation (FIS) points (performance expressed relative to the best athlete) of athletes born between 1981 and 1991, competing in junior world championships or finishing top 30 in world championships or Olympics, were downloaded from the FIS website. Individual performance trends were derived by fitting a quadratic curve to each athletes FIS point and age data.

RESULTS

Peak age was 26.2 (2.3) years in distance and 26.0 (1.7) years in sprint events. The sex difference in peak age in sprint events was ∼0.8 years (small, P = .001), while there was no significant sex difference in peak age in distance events (P = .668). Top performers displayed higher peak ages than other athletes in distance (mean difference, ±95% confidence limits = 1.6 y, ±0.6 y, moderate, P < .001) and sprint events (1.0, ±0.6 y, moderate, P < .001). FIS point improvement over the 5 years preceding peak age did not differ between event types (P = .325), while men improved more than women in both events (8.8, ±5.4%, small, P = .002 and 7.5, ±6.4%, small, P = .002). Performance level had a large effect on improvement in FIS points in both events (P < .001).

CONCLUSION

This study provides novel insights on peak age and relative performance progression among world-class cross-country skiers and can assist practitioners, sport institutions, and federations with goal setting and evaluating strategies for achieving success.

Being a top swimmer during the early career is not a prerequisite for success: A study on sprinter strokes

OBJECTIVES

To quantify the junior-to-senior successful transition rate in sprint swimming events in elite European performers.

DESIGN

Retrospective analysis of publicly available competition data collected between 2004 and 2019.

METHODS

The yearly performance of 6631 European swimmers (females = 41.8% of the sample) competing in 50 and 100 m freestyle, backstroke, breaststroke, and butterfly were included in the analysis. The junior-to-senior transition rate was determined as the number of elite junior athletes who maintained their elite status in adulthood. To investigate how the definition of elite may affect the calculation of the transition rate, we operationally defined elite athletes as those ranked in the all-time top 10, 25, 50, and 100 in their category. We also calculated the correlation between junior and senior performances.

RESULTS

The average transition rates ranged, depending on the age of reference, from 10 to 26% in males and from 23 to 33% in females. The transition rate for the top 100 junior swimmers was greater than that for the top 10 swimmers. In general, swimmers who swam 50 m showed a slightly lower transition rate compared with those that swam 100 m. Depending on the age of reference, low-to-moderate correlations were observed between junior and senior peak performances.

CONCLUSIONS

Most elite junior athletes did not maintain the elite level in adulthood. Except for athletes in the last year of the junior category (18 years for males and 17 years for females), junior performances were poorly correlated with senior performances.

Psychological Profile in Female Cyclists and Its Relationship with Age, Training Parameters, Sport Performance, and Injury Incidence

Previous studies have highlighted the importance of psychology on sports performance and its relationship with the incidence of sport injuries. The objectives of the present investigation were: (1) to analyze the psychological profile of female cyclists as a function of age, training parameters, sport performance, and injuries suffered and (2) to design a model to predict their psychological profile. Sixty-one female cyclists participated in the study. Differences were found as a function of a competitive category for team cohesion (F = 5.035; p = 0.002), sport level effect on performance evaluation (F = 5.030; p = 0.004) and team cohesion (F = 64.706; p = 0.000), the effect of having reached the podium in the last competition on performance evaluation (t = 2.087; p = 0.041) and motivation (t = 4.035; p = 0.000), and injury severity on stress management (F = 6.204; p = 0.008). The factors that affected the psychological profile of the female cyclists the most, in addition to the independent psychological parameters, were the number of podiums in the last year and the years of cycling experience. In conclusion, there is an interaction between the psychological profile, sociodemographic variables, training, performance, and injuries suffered in female cyclists.