Risk of Introduction in Northern Vietnam of HPAI Viruses from China: Description, Patterns and Drivers of Illegal Poultry Trade

Epidemiological Analysis and Genetic Characterization of Parvovirus in Ducks in Northern Vietnam Reveal Evidence of Recombination

In total, 130 tissue-pooled samples collected from ducks in some provinces/cities in north Vietnam were examined for waterfowl parvovirus genome identification. Twenty-six (20%) samples were positive for the parvovirus infection, based on polymerase chain reaction analysis. Of the 38 farms tested, 14 (36.84%) were positive for the waterfowl parvovirus genome. The rate of the parvovirus genome detection in ducks aged 2−4 weeks (37.04%) was significantly (p < 0.05) higher than that at ages <2 weeks (9.09%) and >4 weeks (16.30%). The positive rate on medium-scale farms (9.36%) was significantly (p < 0.05) lower than for small-scale (31.03%) and large-scale (29.73%) farms. The lengths of the four Vietnamese waterfowl parvovirus genomes identified were 4750 nucleotides. Among the four Vietnamese parvovirus genomes, nucleotide identities were from 99.29% to 99.87%. Phylogenetic analysis of the near-complete genomes indicated that the waterfowl circulating in northern Vietnam belonged to the novel goose parvovirus (NGPV) group. The Vietnamese NGPV group was closely related to the Chinese group. Recombination analysis suggested that the Vietnam/VNUA-26/2021 strain was generated by a recombination event. One positive selection site of the capsid protein was detected.

Analysis of the movement of live broilers in Guangxi, China and implications for avian influenza control

Most Chinese provinces have a daily-updated database of live animal movements; however, the data are not efficiently utilized to support interventions to control H7N9 and other avian influenzas. Based on official records, this study assessed the spatio-temporal patterns of live broilers moved out of and within Guangxi in 2017. The yearly and monthly networks were analyzed for inter- and intra-provincial movements, respectively. Approximately 200,000 movements occurred in 2017, involving the transport of 200 million live broilers from Guangxi. Although Guangxi exported to 24 out of 32 provinces of China, 95% of inter-provincial movements occurred with three bordering provinces. Within Guangxi, counties were highly connected through the live broiler movements, creating conditions for rapid virus spreading throughout the province. Interestingly, a peak in movements during the Chinese Lunar New Year celebrations, late January in 2017, was not observed in this study, likely due to H7N9-related control measures constraining live bird trading. Both intra- and inter-provincial movements in March 2017 were significantly higher than in other months of that year, suggesting that dramatic price changes may influence the movement's network and reshape the risk pathways. However, despite these variations, the same small proportion of counties (less than 20%) exporting/importing more than 90% of inter- and intra-provincial movements remains the same throughout the year. Interventions, particularly surveillance and improving biosecurity, targeted to those counties are thus likely to be more effective for avian influenza risk mitigation than implemented indiscriminately. Additionally, simulations further demonstrated that targeting counties according to their degree or betweenness in the movement network would be the most efficient way to limit disease transmission via broiler movements. The study findings provide evidence to support the design of risk-based control interventions for H7N9 and all other avian influenza viruses in broiler value chains in Guangxi.

Optimizing the early detection of low pathogenic avian influenza H7N9 virus in live bird markets

In Southeast Asia, surveillance at live bird markets (LBMs) has been identified as crucial for detecting avian influenza viruses (AIV) and reducing the risk of human infections. However, the design of effective surveillance systems in LBMs remains complex given the rapid turn-over of poultry. We developed a deterministic transmission model to provide guidance for optimizing AIV surveillance efforts. The model was calibrated to fit one of the largest LBMs in northern Vietnam at high risk of low pathogenic H7N9 virus introduction from China to identify the surveillance strategy that optimizes H7N9 detection. Results show that (i) using a portable diagnostic device would slightly reduce the number of infected birds leaving the LBM before the first detection, as compared to a laboratory-based diagnostic strategy, (ii) H7N9 detection could become more timely by sampling birds staying overnight, just before new susceptible birds are introduced at the beginning of a working day, and (iii) banning birds staying overnight would represent an effective intervention to reduce the risk of H7N9 spread but would decrease the likelihood of virus detection if introduced. These strategies should receive high priority in Vietnam and other Asian countries at risk of H7N9 introduction.

Knowledge and remaining gaps on the role of animal and human movements in the poultry production and trade networks in the global spread of avian influenza viruses - A scoping review

Poultry production has significantly increased worldwide, along with the number of avian influenza (AI) outbreaks and the potential threat for human pandemic emergence. The role of wild bird movements in this global spread has been extensively studied while the role of animal, human and fomite movement within commercial poultry production and trade networks remains poorly understood. The aim of this work is to better understand these roles in relation to the different routes of AI spread. A scoping literature review was conducted according to the PRISMA guidelines (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) using a search algorithm combining twelve domains linked to AI spread and animal/human movements within poultry production and trade networks. Only 28 out of 3,978 articles retrieved dealt especially with the role of animal, human and fomite movements in AI spread within the international trade network (4 articles), the national trade network (8 articles) and the production network (16 articles). While the role of animal movements in AI spread within national trade networks has been largely identified, human and fomite movements have been considered more at risk for AI spread within national production networks. However, the role of these movements has never been demonstrated with field data, and production networks have only been partially studied and never at international level. The complexity of poultry production networks and the limited access to production and trade data are important barriers to this knowledge. There is a need to study the role of animal and human movements within poultry production and trade networks in the global spread of AI in partnership with both public and private actors to fill this gap.

Genetic and pathogenic characteristics of clade 2.3.2.1c H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses isolated from poultry outbreaks in Laos during 2015-2018

Since 2004, there have been multiple outbreaks of H5 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses in Laos. Here, we isolated H5N1 HPAI viruses from poultry outbreaks in Laos during 2015-2018 and investigated their genetic characteristics and pathogenicity in chickens. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that the isolates belonged to clade 2.3.2.1c and that they differed from previous Laos viruses with respect to genetic composition. In particular, the isolates were divided into two genotypes, each of which had a different NS segments. The results of possible migration analysis suggested a high likelihood that the Laos isolates were introduced from neighbouring countries, particularly Vietnam. The recent Laos isolate, A/Duck/Laos/NL-1504599/2018, had an intravenous pathogenicity index score of 3.0 and showed a 50% chicken lethal dose of 10^2.5 EID₅₀ /0.1 ml, indicating high pathogenicity. The isolated viruses exhibited no critical substitution in the markers associated with mammalian adaptation, but possess markers related to neuraminidase inhibitor resistance. These results emphasize the need for ongoing surveillance of circulating influenza virus in South-East Asia, including Laos, to better prepare for and mitigate global spread of H5 HPAI.

Chicken anemia virus in northern Vietnam: molecular characterization reveals multiple genotypes and evidence of recombination

Chicken anemia virus (CAV) has a ubiquitous and worldwide distribution in the chicken production industry. Our group previously reported a high seroprevalence of CAV in chickens from northern Vietnam. In the present study, tissue samples collected from a total of 330 broiler and breeder commercial chickens in eleven provinces of northern Vietnam were tested for CAV infection. All samples were collected from clinically suspected flocks and diseased birds. The CAV genome was detected in 157 out of 330 (47.58%) chicken samples by real-time PCR. The rate of CAV genome detection in young chickens at 2-3 weeks of age (61.43%), which had not been previously reported in Vietnam, was significantly higher than that in older chickens at 4-11 (44.83%) and 12-28 (35.71%) weeks of age. For nine representative CAV strains from broiler chickens, analysis of the entire protein-coding region of the viral genome was conducted. Phylogenetic analysis of the VP1 gene indicated that the CAVs circulating in northern Vietnam were divided into three distinct genotypes: II, III, and V. Only one of the nine Vietnamese CAV strains clustered with a vaccine strain (Del-Ros), whereas the other eight strains did not cluster with any vaccine strains. Among the three genotypes, genotype III was most widely found in northern Vietnam and this included three sub-genotypes (IIIa, IIIb, and IIIc). The Vietnamese CAV strains were closely related to the Chinese, Taiwanese, and USA strains. One strain was defined to be of genotype V, which is a newly reported CAV genotype. Moreover, recombination analysis suggests that this novel genotype V was generated by recombination between genotype II and sub-genotype IIIc.

Risk of establishment of canine leishmaniasis infection through the import of dogs into South Africa

Canine leishmaniasis is a vector-borne disease caused by protozoa of the genus Leishmania that affect dogs, humans and wildlife. Sandflies of the genera Phlebotomus and Lutzomyia are the primary vectors. Canine leishmaniasis is an exotic and controlled disease in South Africa. The main purpose of our risk assessment study was to evaluate the likelihood that this exotic disease could enter and be established in South Africa through importation of live dogs. Risk analysis to the spread of the disease follows the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE) formal method of quantitative risk assessment documented as a step-by-step process. We have identified and discussed 11 possible risk factors involved in three steps for final assessment. The annual average number of diagnostic tests performed on imported dogs from 44 countries for 2011-2015 was 1158. Leishmania is reported to occur in 21/44 (47.7%) exporting countries. A total of 71.1% of Leishmania positive dogs were imported from these endemic countries. The yearly percentage of Leishmania positive dogs ranged from 0.2% to 2%. Three confirmed clinical and fatal cases of leishmaniasis in dogs of unidentified origin have been reported by our laboratory and the state veterinarians. The disease has been reported in neighbouring countries as well as the putative sandfly vectors. This study concluded that the risk for the introduction and degree of uncertainty of Leishmania in imported dogs in South Africa are moderate. Risk mitigation and recommendations such as investigations into possible occurrence of autochthonous leishmaniasis in the country, surveillance in its wildlife reservoirs and systematic surveillance of sandfly populations are discussed.

Spatiotemporal and risk analysis of H5 highly pathogenic avian influenza in Vietnam, 2014-2017

The aim of this study was to describe the spatiotemporal distribution of H5 HPAI outbreak reports for the period 2014-2017 and to identify factors associated with H5 HPAI outbreak reports. Throughout the study period, a total of 139 outbreaks of H5 HPAI in poultry were reported, due to either H5N1 (96 outbreaks) or H5N6 (43 outbreaks) subtype viruses. H5N1 HPAI outbreaks occurred in all areas of Vietnam while H5N6 HPAI outbreaks were only reported in the northern and central provinces. We counted the number of H5N1 and H5N6 outbreak report-positive districts per province over the four-year study period and calculated the provincial-level standardized morbidity ratio for H5N1 and H5N6 outbreak reports as the observed number of positive districts divided by the expected number. A mixed-effects, zero-inflated Poisson regression model was developed to identify risk factors for outbreak reports of each H5N1 and H5N6 subtype virus. Spatially correlated and uncorrelated random effects terms were included in this model to identify areas of the country where outbreak reports occurred after known risk factors had been accounted-for. The presence of an outbreak report in a province in the previous 6-12 months increased the provincial level H5N1 outbreak report risk by a factor of 2.42 (95% Bayesian credible interval [CrI] 1.27-4.60) while 1000 bird increases in the density of chickens decreased provincial level H5N6 outbreak report risk by a factor of 0.65 (95% CrI 0.38 to 0.97). We document distinctly different patterns in the spatial and temporal distribution of H5N1 and H5N6 outbreak reports. Most of the variation in H5N1 report risk was accounted-for by the fixed effects included in the zero-inflated Poisson model. In contrast, the amount of unaccounted-for risk in the H5N6 model was substantially greater than the H5N1 model. For H5N6 we recommend that targeted investigations should be carried out in provinces with relatively large spatially correlated random effect terms to identify likely determinants of disease. Similarly, investigations should be carried out in provinces with relatively low spatially correlated random effect terms to identify protective factors for disease and/or reasons for failure to report.

The live poultry trade and the spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza: Regional differences between Europe, West Africa, and Southeast Asia

In the past two decades, avian influenzas have posed an increasing international threat to human and livestock health. In particular, highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 has spread across Asia, Africa, and Europe, leading to the deaths of millions of poultry and hundreds of people. The two main means of international spread are through migratory birds and the live poultry trade. We focus on the role played by the live poultry trade in the spread of H5N1 across three regions widely infected by the disease, which also correspond to three major trade blocs: the European Union (EU), the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN). Across all three regions, we found per-capita GDP (a proxy for modernization, general biosecurity, and value-at-risk) to be risk reducing. A more specific biosecurity measure-general surveillance-was also found to be mitigating at the all-regions level. However, there were important inter-regional differences. For the EU and ASEAN, intra-bloc live poultry imports were risk reducing while extra-bloc imports were risk increasing; for ECOWAS the reverse was true. This is likely due to the fact that while the EU and ASEAN have long-standing biosecurity standards and stringent enforcement (pursuant to the World Trade Organization's Agreement on the Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures), ECOWAS suffered from a lack of uniform standards and lax enforcement.

Economic factors influencing zoonotic disease dynamics: demand for poultry meat and seasonal transmission of avian influenza in Vietnam

While climate is often presented as a key factor influencing the seasonality of diseases, the importance of anthropogenic factors is less commonly evaluated. Using a combination of methods - wavelet analysis, economic analysis, statistical and disease transmission modelling - we aimed to explore the influence of climatic and economic factors on the seasonality of H5N1 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in the domestic poultry population of Vietnam. We found that while climatic variables are associated with seasonal variation in the incidence of avian influenza outbreaks in the North of the country, this is not the case in the Centre and the South. In contrast, temporal patterns of H5N1 incidence are similar across these 3 regions: periods of high H5N1 incidence coincide with Lunar New Year festival, occurring in January-February, in the 3 climatic regions for 5 out of the 8 study years. Yet, daily poultry meat consumption drastically increases during Lunar New Year festival throughout the country. To meet this rise in demand, poultry production and trade are expected to peak around the festival period, promoting viral spread, which we demonstrated using a stochastic disease transmission model. This study illustrates the way in which economic factors may influence the dynamics of livestock pathogens.