Dynamic network connectivity influences the spread of a sub-lineage of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus

Spatiotemporal relative risk distribution of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus in the United States

Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) remains widely distributed across the U.S. swine industry. Between-farm movements of animals and transportation vehicles, along with local transmission are the primary routes by which PRRSV is spread. Given the farm-to-farm proximity in high pig production areas, local transmission is an important pathway in the spread of PRRSV; however, there is limited understanding of the role local transmission plays in the dissemination of PRRSV, specifically, the distance at which there is increased risk for transmission from infected to susceptible farms. We used a spatial and spatiotemporal kernel density approach to estimate PRRSV relative risk and utilized a Bayesian spatiotemporal hierarchical model to assess the effects of environmental variables, between-farm movement data and on-farm biosecurity features on PRRSV outbreaks. The maximum spatial distance calculated through the kernel density approach was 15.3 km in 2018, 17.6 km in 2019, and 18 km in 2020. Spatiotemporal analysis revealed greater variability throughout the study period, with significant differences between the different farm types. We found that downstream farms (i.e., finisher and nursery farms) were located in areas of significant-high relative risk of PRRSV. Factors associated with PRRSV outbreaks were farms with higher number of access points to barns, higher numbers of outgoing movements of pigs, and higher number of days where temperatures were between 4°C and 10°C. Results obtained from this study may be used to guide the reinforcement of biosecurity and surveillance strategies to farms and areas within the distance threshold of PRRSV positive farms.

Contacts posing risks of disease introduction in swine breeding herds in Quebec, Canada: Is the frequency of contacts associated with biosecurity measures?

The introduction of pathogens into swine breeding herds can occur through a variety of contacts involving people, animals, vehicle or various supplies. Appropriate biosecurity is critical to mitigate these risks. A retrospective study was conducted to describe contacts with swine breeding sites over a one-month period and to evaluate their association with biosecurity measures and site characteristics. As part of a larger project, sites which had a recent porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus introduction were selected. A questionnaire, logbooks and pig traceability system were used for collecting data relative to persons or supplies entering the breeding unit, live pig transportation, service vehicles, other animal species, neighboring pig sites and manure spreading around the site. The 84 sites investigated had a median sow inventory of 675. A median of 4 farm staff and 2 visitors entered the breeding unit at least once over the one-month period. A total of 73 sites (87%) received visitor(s), mostly from maintenance and technical services. All sites received at least 3 supply deliveries (median of 8) including semen (99% of sites), small material and/or drugs (98% of sites), bags (87% of sites), and/or equipment (61% of sites). Live pig movements were observed in all sites, with a median number of 5 truck entries on the site or exits from the site. For feed mill, rendering and propane trucks, at least one entry was noted in ≥ 61% of sites. For all service vehicle categories except feed mill and manure vacuum trucks, a single service provider was involved in each site. Dogs and cats were banned from all sites, but wild birds were observed in 8% of sites. Manure spreading within a 100 m radius of pig units was noted in 10% of the sites. With a few exceptions, biosecurity measures were not associated with the frequency of contacts. A 100-sow increase in sow inventory was associated with an increase of 0.34 in the cumulated number of staff entering the breeding unit, of 0.30 in the number of visitors and of 0.19 in the number of live pig movements. Live pig movements were also positively associated with vertically integrated farrow-to-wean (vs. independent farrow-to-wean) production and time interval of 4 weeks or more between farrowing (vs. less than 4). Considering the variety and frequency of contacts observed, biosecurity should be meticulously applied in all breeding herds to prevent endemic and exotic disease introduction.

Mapping the Dynamics of Contemporary PRRSV-2 Evolution and Its Emergence and Spreading Hotspots in the U.S. Using Phylogeography

The repeated emergence of new genetic variants of PRRSV-2, the virus that causes porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS), reflects its rapid evolution and the failure of previous control efforts. Understanding spatiotemporal heterogeneity in variant emergence and spread is critical for future outbreak prevention. Here, we investigate how the pace of evolution varies across time and space, identify the origins of sub-lineage emergence, and map the patterns of the inter-regional spread of PRRSV-2 Lineage 1 (L1)-the current dominant lineage in the U.S. We performed comparative phylogeographic analyses on subsets of 19,395 viral ORF5 sequences collected across the U.S. and Canada between 1991 and 2021. The discrete trait analysis of multiple spatiotemporally stratified sampled sets (n = 500 each) was used to infer the ancestral geographic region and dispersion of each sub-lineage. The robustness of the results was compared to that of other modeling methods and subsampling strategies. Generally, the spatial spread and population dynamics varied across sub-lineages, time, and space. The Upper Midwest was a main spreading hotspot for multiple sub-lineages, e.g., L1C and L1F, though one of the most recent emergence events (L1A(2)) spread outwards from the east. An understanding of historical patterns of emergence and spread can be used to strategize disease control and the containment of emerging variants.

Predicting Antigenic Distance from Genetic Data for PRRSV-Type 1: Applications of Machine Learning

The control of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) remains a significant challenge due to the genetic and antigenic variability of the causative virus (PRRSV). Predominantly, PRRSV management includes using vaccines and live virus inoculations to confer immunity against PRRSV on farms. While understanding cross-protection among strains is crucial for the continued success of these interventions, understanding how genetic diversity translates to antigenic diversity remains elusive. We developed machine learning algorithms to estimate antigenic distance in silico, based on genetic sequence data, and identify differences in specific amino acid sites associated with antigenic differences between viruses. First, we obtained antigenic distance estimates derived from serum neutralization assays cross-reacting PRRSV monospecific antisera with virus isolates from 27 PRRSV1 viruses circulating in Europe. Antigenic distances were weakly to moderately associated with ectodomain amino acid distance for open reading frames (ORFs) 2 to 4 (ρ < 0.2) and ORF5 (ρ = 0.3), respectively. Dividing the antigenic distance values at the median, we then categorized the sera-virus pairs into two levels: low and high antigenic distance (dissimilarity). In the machine learning models, we used amino acid distances in the ectodomains of ORFs 2 to 5 and site-wise amino acid differences between the viruses as potential predictors of antigenic dissimilarity. Using mixed-effect gradient boosting models, we estimated the antigenic distance (high versus low) between serum-virus pairs with an accuracy of 81% (95% confidence interval, 76 to 85%); sensitivity and specificity were 86% and 75%, respectively. We demonstrate that using sequence data we can estimate antigenic distance and potential cross-protection between PRRSV1 strains. IMPORTANCE Understanding cross-protection between cocirculating PRRSV1 strains is crucial to reducing losses associated with PRRS outbreaks on farms. While experimental studies to determine cross-protection are instrumental, these in vivo studies are not always practical or timely for the many cocirculating and emerging PRRSV strains. In this study, we demonstrate the ability to rapidly estimate potential immunologic cross-reaction between different PRRSV1 strains in silico using sequence data routinely collected by production systems. These models can provide fast turn-around information crucial for improving PRRS management decisions such as selecting vaccines/live virus inoculation to be used on farms and assessing the risk of outbreaks by emerging strains on farms previously exposed to certain PRRSV strains and vaccine development among others.

Molecular Evolution of Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome Virus Field Strains from Two Swine Production Systems in the Midwestern United States from 2001 to 2020

Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) poses an extensive economic threat to the United States swine industry. The high degree of PRRSV genetic and antigenic variability challenges existing vaccination programs. We evaluated the ORF5 sequence of 1,931 PRRSV-2 strains detected from >300 farms managed by two pork production systems in the midwestern United States from 2001 to 2020 to assess the genetic diversity and molecular characteristics of heterologous PRRSV-2 strains. Phylogenetic analysis was performed on ORF5 sequences and classified using the global PRRSV classification system. N-glycosylation and the global and local selection pressure in the putative GP5 encoded by ORF5 were estimated. The PRRSV-2 sequences were classified into lineage 5 (L5; n = 438[22.7%]) or lineage 1 (L1; n = 1,493[77.3%]). The L1 strains belonged to one of three subclades: L1A (n = 1,225[63.4%]), L1B (n = 69[3.6%]), and L1C/D (n = 199[10.3%]). 10 N-glycosylation sites were predicted, and positions N44 and N51 were detected in most GP5 sequences (n = 1,801[93.3%]). Clade-specific N-glycosylation sites were observed: 57th in L1A, 33rd in L1B, 30th and 34th in L1C/D, and 30th and 33rd in L5. We identified nine and 19 sites in GP5 under significant positive selection in L5 and L1, respectively. The 13th, 151st, and 200th positive selection sites were exclusive to L5. Heterogeneity of N-glycosylation and positive selection sites may contribute to varying the evolutionary processes of PRRSV-2 strains circulating in these swine production systems. L1A and L5 strains denoted excellence in adaptation to the current swine population by their extensive positive selection sites with higher site-specific selection pressure. IMPORTANCE Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) is known for its high genetic and antigenic variability. In this study, we evaluated the ORF5 sequences of PRRSV-2 strains circulating in two swine production systems in the midwestern United States from 2001 to 2020. All the field strains were classified into four major groups based on genetic relatedness, where one group is closely related to the Ingelvac PRRS MLV strain. Here, we systematically compared differences in the ORF5 polymorphisms, N-glycosylation sites, and local and global evolutionary dynamics between different groups. Sites 44 and 51 were common for N-glycosylation in most amino acid sequences (n = 1,801, 93.3%). We identified that the L5 sequences had more positive selection pressure compared to the L1 strains. Our findings will provide valuable insights into the evolutionary mechanisms of PRRSV-2 and these molecular changes may lead to suboptimal effectiveness of Ingelvac PRRS MLV vaccine.

Lineage 1 Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome Virus Attenuated Live Vaccine Provides Broad Cross-Protection against Homologous and Heterologous NADC30-Like Virus Challenge in Piglets

Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) is an important pathogen that endangers the swine industry worldwide. Recently, lineage 1 PRRSVs, especially NADC30-like PRRSVs, have become the major endemic strains in many pig-breeding countries. Since 2016, NADC30-like PRRSV has become the predominant strain in China. Unfortunately, current commercial vaccines cannot provide sufficient protection against this strain. Here, an attenuated lineage 1 PRRSV strain, named SD-R, was obtained by passaging an NADC30-like PRRSV strain SD in Marc-145 cells for 125 passages. Four-week-old PRRSV-free piglets were vaccinated intramuscularly with 105.0TCID50 SD-R and then challenged intramuscularly (2 mL) and intranasally (2 mL) with homologous NADC30-like PRRSV SD (1 × 105.0TCID50/mL) and heterologous NADC30-like PRRSV HLJWK108-1711 (1 × 105.0TCID50/mL). The results showed that antibodies against specific PRRSVs in 5 of 5 immunized piglets were positive after a 14-day post-vaccination and did not develop fever or clinical diseases after NADC30-like PRRSV challenges. Additionally, compared with challenge control piglets, vaccinated piglets gained significantly more weight and showed much milder pathological lesions. Furthermore, the viral replication levels of the immunized group were significantly lower than those of the challenge control group. These results demonstrate that lineage 1 PRRSV SD-R is a good candidate for an efficacious vaccine, providing complete clinical protection for piglets against NADC30-like PRRSVs.

Integrating animal movements with phylogeography to model the spread of PRRSV in the USA

Viral sequence data coupled with phylodynamic models have become instrumental in investigating the outbreaks of human and animal diseases, and the incorporation of the hypothesized drivers of pathogen spread can enhance the interpretation from phylodynamic inference. Integrating animal movement data with phylodynamics allows us to quantify the extent to which the spatial diffusion of a pathogen is influenced by animal movements and contrast the relative importance of different types of movements in shaping pathogen distribution. We combine animal movement, spatial, and environmental data in a Bayesian phylodynamic framework to explain the spatial diffusion and evolutionary trends of a rapidly spreading sub-lineage (denoted L1A) of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) Type 2 from 2014 to 2017. PRRSV is the most important endemic pathogen affecting pigs in the USA, and this particular virulent sub-lineage emerged in 2014 and continues to be the dominant lineage in the US swine industry to date. Data included 984 open reading frame 5 (ORF5) PRRSV L1A sequences obtained from two production systems in a swine-dense production region (∼85,000 mi²) in the USA between 2014 and 2017. The study area was divided into sectors for which model covariates were summarized, and animal movement data between each sector were summarized by age class (wean: 3–4 weeks; feeder: 8–25 weeks; breeding: ≥21 weeks). We implemented a discrete-space phylogeographic generalized linear model using Bayesian evolutionary analysis by sampling trees (BEAST) to infer factors associated with variability in between-sector diffusion rates of PRRSV L1A. We found that between-sector spread was enhanced by the movement of feeder pigs, spatial adjacency of sectors, and farm density in the destination sector. The PRRSV L1A strain was introduced in the study area in early 2013, and genetic diversity and effective population size peaked in 2015 before fluctuating seasonally (peaking during the summer months). Our study underscores the importance of animal movements and shows, for the first time, that the movement of feeder pigs (8–25 weeks old) shaped the spatial patterns of PRRSV spread much more strongly than the movements of other age classes of pigs. The inclusion of movement data into phylodynamic models as done in this analysis may enhance our ability to identify crucial pathways of disease spread that can be targeted to mitigate the spatial spread of infectious human and animal pathogens.

Phylogenetic Structure and Sequential Dominance of Sub-Lineages of PRRSV Type-2 Lineage 1 in the United States

The genetic diversity and frequent emergence of novel genetic variants of porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus type-2 (PRRSV) hinders control efforts, yet drivers of macro-evolutionary patterns of PRRSV remain poorly documented. Utilizing a comprehensive database of >20,000 orf5 sequences, our objective was to classify variants according to the phylogenetic structure of PRRSV co-circulating in the U.S., quantify evolutionary dynamics of sub-lineage emergence, and describe potential antigenic differences among sub-lineages. We subdivided the most prevalent lineage (Lineage 1, accounting for approximately 60% of available sequences) into eight sub-lineages. Bayesian coalescent SkyGrid models were used to estimate each sub-lineage's effective population size over time. We show that a new sub-lineage emerged every 1 to 4 years and that the time between emergence and peak population size was 4.5 years on average (range: 2-8 years). A pattern of sequential dominance of different sub-lineages was identified, with a new dominant sub-lineage replacing its predecessor approximately every 3 years. Consensus amino acid sequences for each sub-lineage differed in key GP5 sites related to host immunity, suggesting that sub-lineage turnover may be linked to immune-mediated competition. This has important implications for understanding drivers of genetic diversity and emergence of new PRRSV variants in the U.S.