Failure to initiate HIV treatment in patients with high CD4 counts: evidence from demographic surveillance in rural South Africa

A Risk Prediction Model to Identify People Living with HIV Who are High-risk for Disengagement from Care after HIV Diagnosis in South Africa

The provision of ART in South Africa has transformed the HIV epidemic, resulting in an increase in life expectancy by over 10 years. Despite this, nearly 2 million people living with HIV are not on treatment. The objective of this study was to develop and externally validate a practical risk assessment tool to identify people with HIV (PWH) at highest risk for attrition from care after testing. A machine learning model incorporating clinical and psychosocial factors was developed in a primary cohort of 498 PWH. LASSO regression analysis was used to optimize variable selection. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was applied to build a model using 80% of the primary cohort as a training dataset and validated using the remaining 20% of the primary cohort and data from an independent cohort of 96 participants. The risk score was developed using the Sullivan and D'Agostino point based method. Of 498 participants with mean age 35.7 years, 192 (38%) did not initiate ART after diagnosis. Controlling for site, factors associated with non-engagement in care included being < 35 years, feeling abandoned by God, maladaptive coping strategies using alcohol or other drugs, no difficulty concentrating, and having high levels of confidence in one's ability to handle personal challenges. An effective risk score can enable clinicians and implementers to focus on tailoring care for those most in need of ongoing support. Further research should focus on potential strategies to enhance the generalizability and evaluate the implementation of the proposed risk prediction model in HIV treatment programs.

'I need time to start antiretroviral therapy': understanding reasons for delayed ART initiation among people diagnosed with HIV in Lusaka, Zambia'

INTRODUCTION

Rapid antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation can improve patient outcomes such as viral suppression and prevent new infections. However, not everyone who can start ART does so immediately.

METHODS

We conducted a qualitative study to inform interventions supporting rapid initiation in the 'Test and Start' era. We purposively sampled 20 adult patients living with HIV and a previous gap in care from ten health facilities in Lusaka, Zambia for interviews. We inductively analysed transcripts using a thematic, narrative approach. In their narratives, seven participants discussed delaying ART initiation.

RESULTS

Drawing on messages gleaned from facility-based counselling and community information, many cited greater fear of rapid sickness or death due to imperfect adherence or treatment side effects than negative health consequences due to delayed initiation. Participants described needing time to 'prepare' their minds for a lifetime treatment commitment. Concerns about inadvertent HIV status disclosure during drug collection discouraged immediate initiation, as did feeling healthy, and worries about the impact of ART initiation on relationship dynamics.

CONCLUSION

Findings suggest that counselling messages should accurately communicate treatment risks, without perpetuating fear-based narratives about HIV. Identifying and managing patient-specific concerns and reasons for the 'need for time' may be important for supporting individuals to rapidly accept lifelong treatment.Key messagesFear-based adherence messaging in health facilities about the dangers of missing a treatment dose or changing the time when ART is taken contributes to Zambian patients' refusals of immediate ART initiationResponsive health systems that balance a stated need for time to accept one's diagnosis and prepare to embark on a lifelong treatment plan with interventions to identify and manage patient-specific treatment related fears and concerns may support more rapid ART initiationPerceived social stigma around HIV continues to be a significant challenge for treatment initiation.

Cohort profile: the South African National Health Laboratory Service (NHLS) National HIV Cohort

PURPOSE

South Africa's National Health Laboratory Service (NHLS) National HIV Cohort was established in 2015 to facilitate monitoring, evaluation and research on South Africa's National HIV Treatment Programme. In South Africa, 84.8% of people living with HIV know their HIV status; 70.7% who know their status are on ART; and 87.4% on ART are virologically suppressed.

PARTICIPANTS

The NHLS National HIV Cohort includes the laboratory data of nearly all patients receiving HIV care in the public sector since April 2004. Patients are included in the cohort if they have received a CD4 count or HIV RNA viral load (VL) test. Using an anonymised unique patient identifier that we have developed and validated to linked test results, we observe patients prospectively through their laboratory results as they receive HIV care and treatment. Patients in HIV care are seen for laboratory monitoring every 6-12 months. Data collected include age, sex, facility location and test results for CD4 counts, VLs and laboratory tests used to screen for potential treatment complications.

FINDINGS TO DATE

From April 2004 to April 2018, 63 million CD4 count and VL tests were conducted at 5483 facilities. 12.6 million unique patients had at least one CD4 count or VL, indicating they had accessed HIV care, and 7.1 million patients had a VL test indicating they had started antiretroviral therapy. The creation of NHLS National HIV Cohort has enabled longitudinal research on all lab-monitored patients in South Africa's national HIV programme, including analyses of (1) patient health at presentation; (2) care outcomes such as 'CD4 recovery', 'retention in care' and 'viral resuppression'; (3) patterns of transfer and re-entry into care; (4) facility-level variation in care outcomes; and (5) impacts of policies and guideline changes.

FUTURE PLANS

Continuous updating of the cohort, integration with available clinical data, and expansion to include tuberculosis and other lab-monitored comorbidities.

Risk factors for late linkage to care and delayed antiretroviral therapy initiation amongst HIV infected adults in sub-Saharan Africa: a systematic review and meta-analyses

BACKGROUND

Late treatment initiation threatens the clinical and public health benefits of antiretroviral therapy (ART). Quantitative synthesises of the existing evidence related to this is lacking in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), which would help ascertain the best evidence-based interventions. This review aimed to systematically synthesise the available literature on factors affecting linkage to care and ART initiation amongst HIV-infected adults in SSA.

METHODS

Systematic searches were undertaken on four databases to identify observational studies investigating factors affecting both HIV care outcomes amongst adults (age ≥19 years) in SSA, and were published between January 1, 2015 and June 1, 2021. RevMan-5 software was used to conduct meta-analyses and Mantel-Haenszel statistics to pool outcomes with 95% confidence interval and <0.05 level of significance.

RESULTS

Forty-six studies were included in the systematic review, of which 18 fulfilled requirements for meta-analysis. In both narrative review and meta-analyses, factors related to health care delivery, individual perception and sociodemographic circumstances were associated with late linkage to care and delays in ART initiation.

CONCLUSION

This review identified a range of risk factors for late linkage to care and delayed ART initiation amongst HIV-infected adults in SSA. We recommend implementation of patient-centred intervention approaches to alleviate these barriers.

Timely linkage to care among men who have sex with men newly diagnosed with HIV: A structural equation model integrated HIV-related stigma framework

HIV prevalence among men who have sex with men in China has increased dramatically, and timely linkage to care after being diagnosed with HIV is important to treatment success. This cross-sectional study aims to utilize structural equation modeling to test a hypothesized model of timely linkage to care adapted from the HIV-related stigma framework. Data were collected from 257 men who have sex with men living with HIV. The proportion of participants with timely linkage to care within one month was 63.42%. The model result showed a good fit. Higher HIV-related stigma was significantly associated with a lower level of social support, mental health, maladaptive coping (three mechanism variables), and attitude toward linkage to care. Higher CD4⁺ T-cell count, disclosure of HIV positivity to sexual partners, and greater convenience of accessing care were related to timely linkage to care (p< 0.05). These model results suggest that enhancing attention to family reactions and social support are needed for further research and interventions to accelerate newly diagnosed people's access to HIV care in China.

One Pill, Once a Day: Simplified Treatment Regimens and Retention in HIV Care

Simplified drug regimens may improve retention in care for persons with chronic diseases. In April 2013, South Africa adopted a once-daily single-pill human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) treatment regimen as the standard of care, replacing a multiple-pill regimen. Because the regimens had similar biological efficacy, the shift to single-pill therapy offered a real-world test of the impact of simplified drug-delivery mechanisms on patient behavior. Using a quasi-experimental regression discontinuity design, we assessed retention in care among patients starting HIV treatment just before and just after the guideline change. The study included 4,484 patients starting treatment at a large public sector clinic in Johannesburg, South Africa. The share of patients prescribed a single-pill regimen increased by over 40 percentage points between March and April 2013. Initiating treatment after the policy change was associated with 11.7-percentage-points' higher retention at 12 months (95% confidence interval: -2.2, 29.4). Findings were robust to different measures of retention, different bandwidths, and different statistical models. Patients starting treatment early in HIV infection-a key population in the test-and-treat era-experienced the greatest improvements in retention from single-pill regimens.

Understanding Repeat Positive HIV Testing in South Africa Under Changing Treatment Guidelines

Some people with HIV (PWH) test positive multiple times without initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART). We surveyed 496 ART-eligible PWH following routine HIV testing at three clinics in Soweto and Gugulethu, South Africa in 2014-2015. Among repeat positive testers (RPTs) in this cohort, we compared rates of treatment initiation by prior treatment eligibility and assessed psychosocial predictors of treatment initiation in logistic regression models. RPTs represented 33.8% of PWH in this cohort. Less than half of those who reported eligibility for ART on prior testing started treatment upon retesting, in contrast to two thirds of RPTs who were previously ineligible for treatment who started treatment once they learned of their eligibility. Those who reported coping through substance use were more likely to decline treatment versus those not using substances. PWH who test repeatedly represent a vulnerable population at risk for ART non-initiation who may benefit from interventions addressing individualized coping strategies.

Time to Antiretroviral Therapy Initiation and Its Predictors Among Newly Diagnosed HIV-Positive People in Nekemte Town, Western Ethiopia: Claim of Universal Test and Treat

Background

HIV continuum of care demands early ART initiation for all HIV-infected individuals. Early ART initiation reduces onward HIV transmission facilitating rapid viral suppression. Despite this, delayed ART use is a challenge among newly diagnosed HIV-positive individuals, and there is limited evidence on time to ART initiation among this group in Ethiopia. Thus, this study aimed to assess time to ART initiation and its predictors among newly diagnosed HIV-positive individuals in Nekemte town, Western Ethiopia.

Methods

An institution-based retrospective follow-up study was conducted on 518 newly diagnosed HIV-positive people from September 5, 2016 to December 20, 2020 at Nekemte town, Western Ethiopia. Data were collected from ART intake forms, registration log books and patient charts. The collected data were entered into Epi Data version 3.1 and STATA version 14.0 was used for analysis. Survival probability was checked graphically by Kaplan–Meier curve and statistically by Log rank test. Both bivariable and multivariable Cox Proportional hazards regression models were conducted to identify the predictors of ART initiation. Hazard ratio with 95% CI and p-value of <0.05 was used to declare a statistical significance.

Results

By the end of the follow-up, 371 (71.6%) individuals had initiated ART with an overall incidence rate of 51.9 per 1000 [95% CI: 54.07–66.32] person days; median time to ART initiation was 4 [IQR: 1–9] days. Being female (AHR = 1.33, 95% CI: 1.06–1.67), urban dwellers (AHR = 2.02, 95% CI: 1.37–2.97), having baseline OIs (AHR = 1.62, 95% CI: 1.60–4.30); being tested via VCT (AHR = 1.33, 95% CI: 1.02–1.74); linked from OPD (AHR = 0.64, 95% CI: 0.47–0.85); disclosing HIV sero-status (AHR = 2.07, 95% CI: 1.17–3.68); and college and above education level (AHR = 1.43, 95% CI: 1.00–2.0) were identified as significant predictors of early initiation of ART.

Conclusion

The proportion and incidence of ART initiation was high; a short median time to ART initiation was revealed in this study. Strictly screening OIs, encouraging HIV sero-status disclosure and voluntary HIV testing are recommended to increase early ART initiation.

Self-reported motivators for HIV testing in the treat-all era among HIV positive patients in Johannesburg, South Africa

To explore associations between self-reported ill-health as a primary motivator for HIV-testing and socio-demographic factors.Four local primary healthcare clinics in Johannesburg, South Africa.A total of 529 newly HIV diagnosed adults (≥18 years) enrolled from October 2017 to August 2018, participated in the survey on the same day of diagnosis.Testing out of own initiative or perceived HIV exposure was categorized as asymptomatic. Reporting ill-health as the main reason for testing was categorized as symptomatic. Modified Poisson regression was used to evaluate predictors of motivators for HIV testing.Overall, 327/520 (62.9%) participants reported symptoms as the main motivator for testing. Among the asymptomatic, 17.1% reported potential HIV exposure as a reason for testing, while 20.0% just wanted to know their HIV status. Baseline predictors of symptom-related motivators for HIV testing include disclosing intention to test (aPR 1.4 for family/friend/others vs partners/spouse, 95% CI: 1.1-1.8; aPR 1.4 for not disclosing vs partners/spouse, 95% CI: 1.1-1.7), and HIV testing history (aPR 1.2 for last HIV test >12-months ago vs last test 12-months prior, 95% CI: 1.0-1.5; aPR 1.3 for never tested for HIV before vs last test 12-months prior, 95%CI:1.0-1.6).Findings indicate that newly diagnosed HIV positive patients still enter care because of ill-health, not prevention purposes. Increasing early HIV testing remains essential to maximize the benefits of expanded ART access.

Brief Report: The Impact of Disease Stage on Early Gaps in ART in the "Treatment for All" Era-A Multisite Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Adoption of "Treat All" policies has increased antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation in sub-Saharan Africa; however, unexplained early losses continue to occur. More information is needed to understand why treatment discontinuation continues at this vulnerable stage in care.

METHODS

The Monitoring Early Treatment Adherence Study involved a prospective observational cohort of individuals initiating ART at early-stage versus late-stage disease in South Africa and Uganda. Surveys and HIV-1 RNA levels were performed at baseline, 6, and 12 months, with adherence monitored electronically. This analysis included nonpregnant participants in the first 6 months of follow-up; demographic and clinical factors were compared across groups with χ2, univariable, and multivariable models.

RESULTS

Of 669 eligible participants, 91 (14%) showed early gaps of ≥30 days in ART use (22% in South Africa and 6% in Uganda) with the median time to gap of 77 days (interquartile range: 43-101) and 87 days (74, 105), respectively. Although 71 (78%) ultimately resumed care, having an early gap was still significantly associated with detectable viremia at 6 months (P ≤ 0.01). Multivariable modeling, restricted to South Africa, found secondary education and higher physical health score protected against early gaps [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 0.4, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.2 to 0.8 and (aOR 0.93, 95% CI: 0.9 to 1.0), respectively]. Participants reporting clinics as "too far" had double the odds of early gaps (aOR 2.2: 95% CI: 1.2 to 4.1).

DISCUSSION

Early gaps in ART persist, resulting in higher odds of detectable viremia, particularly in South Africa. Interventions targeting health management and access to care are critical to reducing early gaps.

The Treatment Ambassador Program: A Highly Acceptable and Feasible Community-Based Peer Intervention for South Africans Living with HIV Who Delay or Discontinue Antiretroviral Therapy

We conducted a novel pilot randomized controlled trial of the Treatment Ambassador Program (TAP), an 8-session, peer-based, behavioral intervention for people with HIV (PWH) in South Africa not on antiretroviral therapy (ART). PWH (43 intervention, 41 controls) completed baseline, 3- and 6-month assessments. TAP was highly feasible (90% completion), with peer counselors demonstrating good intervention fidelity. Post-intervention interviews showed high acceptability of TAP and counselors, who supported autonomy, assisted with clinical navigation, and provided psychosocial support. Intention-to-treat analyses indicated increased ART initiation by 3 months in the intervention vs. control arm (12.2% [5/41] vs. 2.3% [1/43], Fisher exact p-value = 0.105; Cohen's h = 0.41). Among those previously on ART (off for > 6 months), 33.3% initiated ART by 3 months in the intervention vs. 14.3% in the control arm (Cohen's h = 0.45). Results suggest that TAP was highly acceptable and feasible among PWH not on ART.

Predictors of antiretroviral therapy initiation in eThekwini (Durban), South Africa: Findings from a prospective cohort study

Despite expanded antiretroviral therapy (ART) eligibility in South Africa, many people diagnosed with HIV do not initiate ART promptly, yet understanding of the reasons is limited. Using data from an 8-month prospective cohort interview study of women and men newly-diagnosed with HIV in three public-sector primary care clinics in the eThekwini (Durban) region, South Africa, 2010-2014, we examined if theoretically-relevant social-structural, social-cognitive, psychosocial, and health status indicators were associated with time to ART initiation. Of 459 diagnosed, 350 returned to the clinic for their CD4+ test results (linkage); 153 (33.3%) were ART-eligible according to treatment criteria at the time; 115 (75.2% of those eligible) initiated ART (median = 12.86 weeks [95% CI: 9.75, 15.97] after linkage). In adjusted Cox proportional hazard models, internalized stigma was associated with a 65% decrease in the rate of ART initiation (Adjusted hazard ratio [AHR] 0.35, 95% CI: 0.19-0.80) during the period less than four weeks after linkage to care, but not four or more weeks after linkage to care, suggesting that stigma-reduction interventions implemented shortly after diagnosis may accelerate ART uptake. As reported by others, older age was associated with more rapid ART initiation (AHR for 1-year age increase: 1.04, 95% CI: 1.01-1.07) and higher CD4+ cell count (≥300μL vs. <150μL) was associated with a lower rate of initiation (AHR 0.38, 95% CI: 0.19-0.80). Several other factors that were assessed prior to diagnosis, including stronger belief in traditional medicine, higher endorsement of stigma toward people living with HIV, food insecurity, and higher psychological distress, were found to be in the expected direction of association with ART initiation, but confidence intervals were wide and could not exclude a null finding.

Quantifying the gender gap in the HIV care cascade in southern Mozambique: We are missing the men

BACKGROUND

HIV-infected men have higher rates of delayed diagnosis, reduced antiretroviral treatment (ART) retention and mortality than women. We aimed to assess, by gender, the first two UNAIDS 90 targets in rural southern Mozambique.

METHODS

This analysis was embedded in a larger prospective cohort enrolling individuals with new HIV diagnosis between May 2014-June 2015 from clinic and home-based testing (HBT). We assessed gender differences between steps of the HIV-cascade. Adjusted HIV-community prevalence was estimated using multiple imputation (MI).

RESULTS

Among 11,773 adults randomized in HBT (7084 female and 4689 male), the response rate before HIV testing was 48.7% among eligible men and 62.0% among women (p<0.001). MI did not significantly modify all-age HIV-prevalence for men but did decrease prevalence estimates in women from 36.4%to 33.0%. Estimated proportion of HIV-infected individuals aware of their status was 75.9% for men and 88.9% for women. In individuals <25 years, we observed up to 22.2% disparity in awareness of serostatus between genders. Among individuals eligible for ART, similar proportions of men and women initiated treatment (81.2% and 85.9%, respectively). Fourfold more men than womenwere in WHO stage III/IV AIDS at first clinical visit. Once on ART, men had a twofold higher 18-month loss to follow-up rate than women.

CONCLUSION

The contribution of missing HIV-serostatus data differentially impacted indicators of HIV prevalence and of achievement of UNAIDS targets by age and gender and men were missing long before the second 90. Increased efforts to characterize missing men and their needs will and their needs will allow us to urgently address the barriers to men accessing care and ensure men are not left behind in the UNAIDS 90-90-90 targets achievement.

Prevalence and Factors Associated with Delayed Initiation of Antiretroviral Therapy Among People Living with HIV in Nekemte Referral Hospital, Western Ethiopia

Background

Ethiopia has adopted the “Universal Test and Treat” strategy to its national policy in 2016 to put all people living with HIV/AIDS (PLHIV) on antiretroviral therapy (ART) regardless of their World Health Organization (WHO) clinical stage or CD4 cell count level. A significant percentage of PLHIV start therapy has been delayed despite the availability of ART, which results in poor treatment outcomes including HIV-related morbidity and mortality, and continued HIV transmission.

Methods

This cross-sectional study was conducted to determine the magnitude and associated factors of delayed ART initiation among PLHIV at ART Clinic, Nekemte Referral hospital, Western Ethiopia between January 1, 2020 and March 31, 2020 for the time period of January 1, 2016 to December 31, 2019. A consecutive sampling method was used to recruit 417 study subjects. The collected data were entered into Epi data version 3.1 and exported to STATA version 14 for statistical analysis. Logistic regression analysis was used to identify associated factors with delayed ART initiation among PLHIV. P-values<0.05 were used to declare significant association.

Results

A total of 417 PLHIV were included in the study. The mean age of study subjects was 33.49 (SD±9.81) years. The majority of participants attended formal education (77%) and were urban dwellers (82%). One-third (34%) of them initiated ART delayed, beyond 7 days of confirmed HIV diagnosis. Subjects with normal nutritional status (BMI=18.5–24.9kg/m²) (AOR=3.12, 95% CI=1.29–7.57; P=0.012), CD4 count ≥351cells/mm³ (AOR=2.89, 95% CI=1.27–6.58; P=0.011), tuberculosis (TBC) co-infection (AOR=2.76, 95% CI=1.13–6.70; P=0.025), use of traditional treatment (AOR=4.03, 95% CI=2.03–8.00; P<0.001) and did not know other ART user(s) (AOR=2.86, 95% CI=1.52–5.37; P=0.001) were significantly associated with delayed ART initiation.

Conclusion

Early HIV testing mechanisms and timely linkage to HIV care by advocating “Test-and-Treat” should be strengthened.

Beyond the barrier: Female Genital Schistosomiasis as a potential risk factor for HIV-1 acquisition

Female genital schistosomiasis (FGS) results from egg-deposition in the female reproductive tract primarily by the waterborne parasite Schistosoma (S.) haematobium, and less commonly by Schistosoma (S.) mansoni. FGS affects an estimated 20-56 million women worldwide, mostly in sub-Saharan Africa. There is cross-sectional evidence of increased HIV-1 prevalence in schistosomiasis-infected women, but a causal relationship between FGS and either HIV-1 acquisition or transmission has not been fully established. Beyond the pathognomonic breach in the cervicovaginal barrier caused by FGS, this narrative review explores potential mechanisms for a synergistic relationship between S. haematobium infection, FGS, and HIV-1 acquisition through vaginal inflammation and target cell recruitment.

Rapid antiretroviral therapy initiation in the Botswana Combination Prevention Project: a quasi-experimental before and after study

BACKGROUND

Ensuring that individuals who are living with HIV rapidly initiate antiretroviral therapy (ART) is an essential step in meeting the 90-90-90 targets. We evaluated the feasibility and outcomes of rapid ART initiation in the Botswana Combination Prevention Project (BCPP). We aimed to establish whether simplified ART initiation with the offer of same-day treatment could increase uptake and reduce time from clinic linkage to treatment initiation, while maintaining rates of retention in care and viral suppression.

METHODS

We did a quasi-experimental before and after study with use of data from the BCPP. The BCPP was a community-randomised HIV-prevention trial done in 30 communities across Botswana from Oct 1, 2013, to June 30, 2018. Participants in the 15 intervention clusters, who were HIV-positive and not already taking ART were offered universal HIV-treatment and same-day ART with a dolutegravir-based regimen at first clinic visit. This rapid ART intervention was implemented mid-way through the trial on June 1, 2016, enabling us to determine the effect of rapid ART guidelines on time to ART initiation and rates of retention in care and viral suppression at 1 year in the BCPP intervention group.

FINDINGS

We assessed 1717 adults linked to study clinics before rapid ART introduction and 800 after rapid ART introduction. During the rapid ART period, 457 (57·1%, 95% CI 53·7-60·6) individuals initiated ART within 1 day of linkage, 589 (73·7%, 70·6-76·7) of 799 within 1 week, 678 (84·9%, 82·4-87·3) of 799 within 1 month, and 744 (93·5%, 91·6-95·1) of 796 within 1 year. Before the introduction of rapid ART, 163 (9·5%, 95% CI 8·2-11·0) individuals initiated ART within 1 day of linkage, 276 (16·1%, 14·4-17·9) within 1 week, 839 (48·9%, 46·5-51·3) within 1 month, and 1532 (89·2%, 87·7-90·6) within 1 year. 1 year after ART initiation, 1472 (90·5%, 87·4-92·8) of 1627 individuals who linked in the standard ART period were in care and had a viral load of less than 400 copies per mL, compared with 578 (91·6%, 88·1-94·1) of 631 in the rapid ART period (risk ratio 1·01, 95% CI 0·92-1·11).

INTERPRETATION

Our findings provide support for the WHO recommendations for rapid ART initiation, and add to the accumulating evidence showing the feasibility, acceptability, and safety of rapid ART initiation in low-income and middle-income country settings.

FUNDING

US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief.

Same-day antiretroviral therapy initiation for HIV-infected adults in South Africa: Analysis of routine data

Same-day initiation (SDI) of antiretroviral therapy (ART) has been recommended to improve ART programme outcomes in South Africa since August 2017. This study assessed implementation of SDI over time in two South African districts, describing the characteristics of same-day initiators and evaluating the impact of SDI on retention in ART care. Routine data were analysed for HIV-infected adults who were newly initiating ART in Johannesburg or Mopani Districts between October 2017 and June 2018. Characteristics of same-day ART initiators were compared to later initiators, and losses to follow-up (LTFU) to six months were assessed using Kaplan Meier survival analysis and multivariate logistic regression. The dataset comprised 32 290 records (29 964 from Johannesburg and 2 326 from Mopani). The overall rate of SDI was 40.4% (n = 13 038), increasing from 30.3% in October 2017 to 54.2% in June 2018. Same-day ART initiators were younger, more likely to be female and presented with less advanced clinical disease than those initiating treatment at later times following diagnosis (p<0.001 for all). SDI was associated with disengagement from care: LTFU was 30.1% in the SDI group compared to 22.4%, 19.8% and 21.9% among clients initiating ART 1–7 days, 8–21 days and ≥22 days after HIV diagnosis, respectively (p<0.001). LTFU was significantly more likely among clients in Johannesburg versus Mopani (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 1.43, p<0.001) and among same-day versus later initiators (aOR = 1.45, p<0.001), while increasing age reduced LTFU (aOR = 0.97, p<0.001). In conclusion, SDI has increased over time as per national guidelines, but there is serious concern regarding the reduced rate of retention among same-day initiators. Nevertheless, SDI may result in a net programmatic benefit provided that interventions are implemented to support client readiness for treatment and ongoing engagement in ART care, particularly among younger adults in large ART programmes such as Johannesburg.

Improving the Validity of Mathematical Models for HIV Elimination by Incorporating Empirical Estimates of Progression Through the HIV Treatment Cascade

BACKGROUND

Optimism regarding prospects for eliminating HIV by expanding antiretroviral treatment has been emboldened in part by projections from several mathematical modeling studies. Drawing from a detailed empirical assessment of rates of progression through the entire HIV care cascade, we quantify for the first time the extent to which models may overestimate health benefits from policy changes when they fail to incorporate a realistic understanding of the cascade.

SETTING

Rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa.

METHODS

We estimated rates of progression through stages of the HIV treatment cascade using data from a longitudinal population-based HIV surveillance system in rural KwaZulu-Natal. Incorporating empirical estimates in a mathematical model of HIV progression, infection transmission, and care, we estimated life expectancy and secondary infections averted under a range of treatment scale-up scenarios reflecting expanding treatment eligibility thresholds. We compared the results with those implied by the conventional assumptions that have been commonly adopted by existing models.

RESULTS

Survival gains from expanding the treatment eligibility threshold from CD4 350-500 cells/μL and from 500 cells/μL to treating everyone irrespective of their CD4 count may be overestimated by 3.60 and 3.79 times in models that fail to capture realities of the care cascade. HIV infections averted from raising the threshold from CD4 200 to 350, 350 to 500, and 500 cells/μL to treating everyone may be overestimated by 1.10, 2.65, and 1.18 times, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Models using conventional assumptions about cascade progression may substantially overestimate health benefits. As implementation of treatment scale-up proceeds, it is important to assess the effects of required scale-up efforts in a way that incorporates empirical realities of how people move through the HIV cascade.

Why do people living with HIV not initiate treatment? A systematic review of qualitative evidence from low- and middle-income countries

BACKGROUND

Many people living with HIV (PLWH) who are eligible for antiretroviral therapy (ART) do not initiate treatment, leading to excess morbidity, mortality, and viral transmission. As countries move to treat all PLWH at diagnosis, it is critical to understand reasons for non-initiation.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic review of the qualitative literature on reasons for ART non-initiation in low- and middle-income countries. We screened 1376 titles, 680 abstracts, and 154 full-text reports of English-language qualitative studies published January 2000-April 2017; 20 met criteria for inclusion. Our analysis involved three steps. First, we used a "thematic synthesis" approach, identifying supply-side (facility) and demand-side (patient) factors commonly cited across different studies and organizing these factors into themes. Second, we conducted a theoretical mapping exercise, developing an explanatory model for patients' decision-making process to start (or not to start) ART, based on inductive analysis of evidence reviewed. Third, we used this explanatory model to identify opportunities to intervene to increase ART uptake.

RESULTS

Demand-side factors implicated in decisions not to start ART included feeling healthy, low social support, gender norms, HIV stigma, and difficulties translating intentions into actions. Supply-side factors included high care-seeking costs, concerns about confidentiality, low-quality health services, recommended lifestyle changes, and incomplete knowledge of treatment benefits. Developing an explanatory model, which we labeled the Transdisciplinary Model of Health Decision-Making, we posited that contextual factors determine the costs and benefits of ART; patients perceive this context (through cognitive and emotional appraisals) and form an intention whether or not to start; and these intentions may (or may not) be translated into actions. Interventions can target each of these three stages.

CONCLUSIONS

Reasons for not starting ART included consistent themes across studies. Future interventions could: (1) provide information on the large health and prevention benefits of ART and the low side effects of current regimens; (2) reduce stigma at the patient and community levels and increase confidentiality where stigma persists; (3) remove lifestyle requirements and support patients in integrating ART into their lives; and (4) alleviate economic burdens of ART. Interventions addressing reasons for non-initiation will be critical to the success of HIV "treat all" strategies.